

(0:00) Bestie intros: Brad Gerstner fills in for Friedberg!
(2:58) OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs: Why it matters who goes first, what they learned from the SpaceX IPO, the unlimited TAM of intelligence
(27:39) The open source decision, Meta's new model, Zuck's price war, AI duopoly
(54:29) CCP considering putting export controls on Chinese models, is open source ending in China?
(1:03:09) Trump Accounts launch, getting young Americans bought back into capitalism
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Referenced in the show:
https://polymarket.com/event/ipos-before-2027
https://x.com/thejessezhang/status/2074154325933424861
https://x.com/praveenTweets/status/2074605343439810922
https://x.com/nikesharora/status/2074802778074124434
https://x.com/nikesharora/status/2074814752174522857
https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/2070670644577280109
https://x.com/andyfang/status/2074252174226493584
https://x.com/nikesharora/status/2074630732019036574
https://x.com/finkd/status/2075218444056707458
https://x.com/alighodsi/status/2074996561306955958
https://blog.nicolasmeridjen.com/en/blog/2026-04-03-alibaba-qwen-closed-source-end-of-open-weight
https://www.chinatalk.media/p/chinas-ai-companies-are-going-closed

(0:00) The AI Buildout: Datacenters Bigger Than Cities (Andrew Feldman)
(1:50) Reasoning, Inference, and Breaking Moore's Law
(16:28) Open Source, AI Sovereignty, and the Road to AGI
(40:54) The Innovation Behind Generative Video (Robin Rombach)
(47:31) Martin Scorsese, Robots, and the Future of Hollywood IP
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(0:00) Bestie intros: Happy Fourth of July!
(0:21) Palantir-Nvidia open source deal, Alex Karp's CNBC "Crashout"
(33:52) Update on the AI jobs debate
(50:24) Anthropic's Fable 5 available after export restrictions lifted
(59:06) SCOTUS upholds birthright citizenship, striking Trump's EO
(1:21:30) Newsom's "balanced budget" and how California's dire fiscal situation could break apart the Union
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Referenced in the show:
https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/palantir-secure-ai-us-agencies-nemotron-open-models
https://x.com/PalantirTech/status/2072326189079757277
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-blindsides-business-partners?rc=f8fu8f
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/FIG:NYSE
https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/2072673187666813226
https://x.com/chamath/status/2072665199786561713
https://x.com/quxiaoyin/status/2072428278976074115
https://x.com/chamath/status/2072390507628540213
https://x.com/GavinNewsom/status/2070496029280276571
https://www.ocregister.com/2026/02/27/these-charts-show-how-californias-budget-has-skyrocketed
https://x.com/JeanneIves/status/2072165726526308719
https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028

(0:00) Nate Silver joins the pod!
(10:02) California's ballot counting problem: Raman's late-mail surge, ballot harvesting claims, and why the US counts slower than India
(25:18) Democrats' three-way civil war: The left, the abundance libs, and Newsom's "resistance lib" base
(34:48) The winning 2028 playbook: Anti-oligarch messaging, why young men want control, and immigrants fleeing the Dems
(45:48) How algorithmic social media entrenches polarization: Elon's X, filter bubbles, and the death of the chronological feed
(50:01) 2026 midterm predictions: 85-90% Dem House takeover, Senate toss-up, and the Iran/gas price wildcard
(55:20) Newsom is collapsing in polls: Nate's 2028 Dem bet is AOC
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(0:00) Gavin Baker and Travis Kalanick join the show!
(1:05) Mamdani-endorsed socialists sweep congressional primaries in NYC
(22:51) Future of the Democratic Party, the Israel issue, social media bans
(45:12) China's open-source AI catch up, distillation, OpenAI's new chip
(1:01:46) Micron smashes earnings, AI's memory crunch hitting Apple and consumer hardware
(1:10:17) The math behind distributed compute and datacenters in space
(1:27:22) IPO update: Anthropic at $3T, SpaceX float, Cerebras drops after breaking deal price
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Referenced in the show:
https://polymarket.com/event/mamdani-team-sweeps-primaries-20260618232357710
https://x.com/thestustustudio/status/2067356255916536120
https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/2069645066252034288
https://x.com/america/status/2069622732279402804
https://x.com/realmaalouf/status/2069433391162798337
https://x.com/JoshBlockDC/status/2070108811851882691
https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/2069776474429624684
https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/2068829255786803368
https://x.com/PirateWires/status/2069146641266094417
https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-data-center-boom-is-sparking-a-third-wave-of-inflation-926adc6e

(0:00) David Friedberg intros GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen!
(1:56) Building and selling Chewy for $3.35B, how to compete with Amazon in e-commerce
(11:58) Post-Chewy life, activist investing, the road to GameStop CEO, expanding into collectibles
(26:39) Why he wants to buy eBay for $56B: Massive potential, poor execution (slow growth, rising expenses, seller relationship failure)
(43:58) Ryan's three-part vision for eBay: Cut costs, expand live commerce, create digital in-game collectible marketplace
(49:33) Why eBay has rejected the offer, media bias against GameStop
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(0:00) Bestie intros!
(2:41) The New Oligarchs, America's incoming politburo, and learned helplessness
(14:18) SpaceX's record breaking IPO, $60B Cursor acquisition, and trillionaire reactions
(33:34) Behind the scenes of Anthropic's Fable ban
(1:01:18) Claude psychoanalyzes its creator, Dario Amodei
(1:14:31) Iran War MOU and the market impact
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Referenced in the show:
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/illinois-set-begin-taxing-bitcoin-172237413.html
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/spacex-ipo-stock-market-06-12-2026
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/16/spacex-spcx-cursor-acquisition-ipo.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cgrk21wnvy9o
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/spacex-spcx-stock-ipo-welder-employee-millionaire
https://www.wired.com/story/sk-telecom-anthropic-mythos-export-controls
https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/2065853007619588171
https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access
https://stratechery.com/2026/anthropics-safety-superpower
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/05/anthropic-pentagon-ai-claude-iran.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/17/opinion/ai-dangerous-openai-anthropic.html

(0:00) Besties are back!
(0:19) Anthropic gets massive backlash over secret Fable nerfing and privacy concerns
(29:16) The AI regulatory capture trap, pragmatic safety solutions
(37:59) Nationalizing AI: Trump/Sanders, justifications, and AI's "Capitalist Cucks"
(59:22) Liquidity recap: Best moments and takeaways
(1:05:39) Inflation heats up: CPI and PPI see 3+ year highs
(1:12:27) California's loose election laws creating integrity doubts
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Intro Music Credit:
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Referenced in the show:
https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-fable-5-mythos-5
https://x.com/Scobleizer/status/2064641097310335294
https://x.com/GergelyOrosz/status/2064618497150210391
https://x.com/cremieuxrecueil/status/2064433331970720187
https://x.com/Yuchenj_UW/status/2064524668208545955
https://x.com/peter_szilagyi/status/2064620043896291671
https://darioamodei.com/post/policy-on-the-ai-exponential
https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/2065120386660880765
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/01/opinion/artificial-intelligence-bernie-sanders.html
https://polymarket.com/event/ipos-before-2027
https://polymarket.com/event/how-high-will-inflation-get-in-2026
https://polymarket.com/event/fed-rate-hike-in-2026
https://x.com/robbystarbuck/status/2063602942637158423
https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/osec/osec20260218
https://www.foxnews.com/us/california-man-arrested-allegedly-stealing-millions-homeless-funds

(0:00) Chamath explains the Best Ideas format
(2:31) Suvretta Capital Management's Aaron Cowen pitches MGM Resorts
(13:07) Bornite Capital's Dan Dreyfus pitches Talen Energy
(27:19) EcoR1 Capital's Oleg Nodelman pitches Aktis Oncology
(40:20) Multicoin Capital's Kyle Samani pitches GEODNET
(54:50) The Besties recap the pitches and announce winners
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(0:00) PA Senators Fetterman and McCormick join the Besties
(0:33) Bipartisanship in 2026, rejecting extremism
(6:37) All-time unpopularity in the Senate, the filibuster question, tribalism
(13:33) Fixing wealth concentration in the US
(19:51) Graham Platner, why extremism wins primaries, and what it means for the future
(28:12) How AI and energy are playing a part in PA's blue collar boom, dark money funding misinformation
(41:05) Insane level of money in politics, fixing the broken system
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NYSE - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE.
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(0:00) Dan Dreyfus Presents: The Future of Critical Minerals
(0:33) America's "Capital Light Era" is over, rapid supply/demand shocks
(5:40) Impact of China cutting off the US from critical minerals
(8:18) Copper's Rise: The next 18 years need as much as the last 10,000
(12:00) Dollar Debasement: $140T in debt and why hard assets win
(13:50) The Grid is Dying: Blackouts, bottlenecks, and the craft labor crisis
(19:10) How to invest in the commodity supercycle
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(0:00) Bill Maris joins the Besties!
(0:33) Four critical lessons from a career in technology
(5:58) Building Google Ventures with data and machine learning
(9:51) Why small VC funds beat big ones on average
(14:36) OpenAI's valuation problem and the AI price war
(19:09) AI's "Atari Stage": what comes next?
(25:23) VC's broken incentives and the future of deep tech
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(0:00) Palo Alto Networks CEO Nikesh Arora joins the Besties!
(0:47) Claude Mythos found years of vulnerabilities in Palo Alto's code in weeks
(5:15) Are cyber defenders losing the race against AI attackers?
(6:50) Analytical SaaS is dead, so what survives the AI wave?
(14:06) If models become a utility, where will the money be made?
(20:35) Armchair CEO: Nikesh rates Waymo, Google, and OpenAI
(28:22) Palo Alto's M&A playbook and the path to $1 trillion
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(0:00) Brad Gerstner, Gavin Baker, and Kelly Rodriques join the Besties!
(0:47) Secondary Markets are Booming & Competing with IPOs
(3:10) Why Companies are Staying Private So Long?
(9:22) SPVs, the Forge-Schwab Deal, Democratizing Private Market Access
(13:28) Secondary Markets as Exit Liquidity for VCs
(27:00) The Private Market Bubble?
(32:03) Hottest Secondary Companies Right Now
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(0:00) CEOs Andrew Feldman (Cerebras) and Will Marshall (Planet Labs) join the Besties!
(2:05) Both CEOs on going public: Impact on employees, customers, and business operations
(13:18) Timelines for datacenters in space
(19:28) Cerebras business breakdown, AI's impact on the silicon market
(24:45) How Founder/CEOs think about liquidity on the road to going public
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https://x.com/yung_spielburg