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Andrej Karpathy — AGI is still a decade away
The Andrej Karpathy episode.
During this interview, Andrej explains why reinforcement learning is terrible (but everything else is much worse), why AGI will just blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth, why self driving took so long to crack, and what he sees as the future of education.
It was a pleasure chatting with him.
Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.
Sponsors
* Labelbox helps you get data that is more detailed, more accurate, and higher signal than you could get by default, no matter your domain or training paradigm. Reach out today at labelbox.com/dwarkesh
* Mercury helps you run your business better. It’s the banking platform we use for the podcast — we love that we can see our accounts, cash flows, AR, and AP all in one place. Apply online in minutes at mercury.com
* Google’s Veo 3.1 update is a notable improvement to an already great model. Veo 3.1’s generations are more coherent and the audio is even higher-quality. If you have a Google AI Pro or Ultra plan, you can try it in Gemini today by visiting https://gemini.google
Timestamps
(00:00:00) – AGI is still a decade away
(00:29:45) – LLM cognitive deficits
(00:40:05) – RL is terrible
(00:49:38) – How do humans learn?
(01:06:25) – AGI will blend into 2% GDP growth
(01:17:36) – ASI
(01:32:50) – Evolution of intelligence & culture
(01:42:55) - Why self driving took so long
(01:56:20) - Future of education
Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
How Lee Edward Smith & Katherine Aguilar Turned Dance, Culture & Real Estate Into an Empire
Satya Nadella — How Microsoft is preparing for AGI
As part of this interview, Satya Nadella gave Dylan Patel (founder of SemiAnalysis) and me an exclusive first-look at their brand-new Fairwater 2 datacenter.
Microsoft is building multiple Fairwaters, each of which has hundreds of thousands of GB200s & GB300s. Between all these interconnected buildings, they’ll have over 2 GW of total capacity. Just to give a frame of reference, even a single one of these Fairwater buildings is more powerful than any other AI datacenter that currently exists.
Satya then answered a bunch of questions about how Microsoft is preparing for AGI across all layers of the stack.
Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.
Sponsors
* Labelbox produces high-quality data at massive scale, powering any capability you want your model to have. Whether you’re building a voice agent, a coding assistant, or a robotics model, Labelbox gets you the exact data you need, fast. Reach out at labelbox.com/dwarkesh
* CodeRabbit automatically reviews and summarizes PRs so you can understand changes and catch bugs in half the time. This is helpful whether you’re coding solo, collaborating with agents, or leading a full team. To learn how CodeRabbit integrates directly into your workflow, go to coderabbit.ai
To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.
Timestamps
(00:00:00) - Fairwater 2
(00:03:20) - Business models for AGI
(00:12:48) - Copilot
(00:20:02) - Whose margins will expand most?
(00:36:17) - MAI
(00:47:47) - The hyperscale business
(01:02:44) - In-house chip & OpenAI partnership
(01:09:35) - The CAPEX explosion
(01:15:07) - Will the world trust US companies to lead AI?
Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
Sarah Paine — How Russia sabotaged China's rise
In this lecture, military historian Sarah Paine explains how Russia—and specifically Stalin—completely derailed China’s rise, slowing them down for over a century.
This lecture was particularly interesting to me because, in my opinion, the Chinese Civil War is 1 of the top 3 most important events of the 20th century. And to understand why it transpired as it did, you need to understand Stalin’s role in the whole thing.
Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.
Sponsors
Mercury helps you run your business better. It’s the banking platform we use for the podcast — we love that we can see our cash balance, AR, and AP all in one place. Join us (and over 200,000 other entrepreneurs) at mercury.com
Labelbox scrutinizes public benchmarks at the single data-row level to probe what’s really being evaluated. Using this knowledge, they can generate custom training data for hill climbing existing benchmarks, or design new benchmarks from scratch. Learn more at labelbox.com/dwarkesh
To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.
Timestamps
(00:00:00) – How Russia took advantage of China’s weakness
(00:22:58) – After Stalin, China’s rise
(00:33:52) – Russian imperialism
(00:45:23) – China’s and Russia’s existential problems
(01:04:55) – Q&A: Sino-Soviet Split
(01:22:44) – Stalin’s lessons from WW2
Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
MAGA Mike Visibly Cracks as War Escalates…Losing His Job!!!
I Love Your Calls, Claudia: Thursday, March 19th, 2026
Why Your Passion is Destroying Your Life (And How to Fix It)
Contrarian takes on power, leverage, and influence in the age of AI: https://ryanhanley.com/subscribe
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You've been told your whole life that passion and drive are the keys to success.
What if they're actually the biggest risks to your mental health?
In this episode of Finding Peak, I sit down with Dr. Guy Winch — internationally renowned psychologist, 3x TED Talk speaker (35M+ views), and bestselling author of Mind Over Grind: How to Break Free When Work Hijacks Your Life.
We go deep on the uncomfortable truth about overworking, the hidden dangers of being "driven," and why your passion might be slowly amputating parts of your personality — one by one.
If you've ever felt like work is hijacking your life, or if you've experienced that crushing emptiness after achieving a massive goal (like selling a company), this conversation is your wake-up call.
We cover:
→ Why passion and drive are actually psychological risk factors
→ The "scurvy" of the modern entrepreneur (and how to avoid it)
→ Why you feel depressed after a big win — and how to prepare for it
→ How to stop work from invading your personal time
→ The difference between automatic coping and intentional problem-solving
→ Why action creates passion — not the other way around
→ How Gen Z's short-term thinking is creating a mental health crisis
Stop grinding yourself into the ground. It's time to build a life that actually sustains you.
This is the way.
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Connect with Guy Winch📘 Get Dr. Guy Winch's book, Mind Over Grind: https://amzn.to/4dfXCBJ
🌐 Learn more about Dr. Winch: https://www.guywinch.com/
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Contrarian takes on power, leverage, and influence in the age of AI: https://ryanhanley.com/subscribe
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