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The Andrej Karpathy episode.

During this interview, Andrej explains why reinforcement learning is terrible (but everything else is much worse), why AGI will just blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth, why self driving took so long to crack, and what he sees as the future of education.

It was a pleasure chatting with him.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

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Timestamps

(00:00:00) – AGI is still a decade away

(00:29:45) – LLM cognitive deficits

(00:40:05) – RL is terrible

(00:49:38) – How do humans learn?

(01:06:25) – AGI will blend into 2% GDP growth

(01:17:36) – ASI

(01:32:50) – Evolution of intelligence & culture

(01:42:55) - Why self driving took so long

(01:56:20) - Future of education

In this lecture, military historian Sarah Paine explains how Russia—and specifically Stalin—completely derailed China’s rise, slowing them down for over a century.

This lecture was particularly interesting to me because, in my opinion, the Chinese Civil War is 1 of the top 3 most important events of the 20th century. And to understand why it transpired as it did, you need to understand Stalin’s role in the whole thing.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

Mercury helps you run your business better. It’s the banking platform we use for the podcast — we love that we can see our cash balance, AR, and AP all in one place. Join us (and over 200,000 other entrepreneurs) at mercury.com

Labelbox scrutinizes public benchmarks at the single data-row level to probe what’s really being evaluated. Using this knowledge, they can generate custom training data for hill climbing existing benchmarks, or design new benchmarks from scratch. Learn more at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) – How Russia took advantage of China’s weakness

(00:22:58) – After Stalin, China’s rise

(00:33:52) – Russian imperialism

(00:45:23) – China’s and Russia’s existential problems

(01:04:55) – Q&A: Sino-Soviet Split

(01:22:44) – Stalin’s lessons from WW2

As part of this interview, Satya Nadella gave Dylan Patel (founder of SemiAnalysis) and me an exclusive first-look at their brand-new Fairwater 2 datacenter.

Microsoft is building multiple Fairwaters, each of which has hundreds of thousands of GB200s & GB300s. Between all these interconnected buildings, they’ll have over 2 GW of total capacity. Just to give a frame of reference, even a single one of these Fairwater buildings is more powerful than any other AI datacenter that currently exists.

Satya then answered a bunch of questions about how Microsoft is preparing for AGI across all layers of the stack.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

* Labelbox produces high-quality data at massive scale, powering any capability you want your model to have. Whether you’re building a voice agent, a coding assistant, or a robotics model, Labelbox gets you the exact data you need, fast. Reach out at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

* CodeRabbit automatically reviews and summarizes PRs so you can understand changes and catch bugs in half the time. This is helpful whether you’re coding solo, collaborating with agents, or leading a full team. To learn how CodeRabbit integrates directly into your workflow, go to coderabbit.ai

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) - Fairwater 2

(00:03:20) - Business models for AGI

(00:12:48) - Copilot

(00:20:02) - Whose margins will expand most?

(00:36:17) - MAI

(00:47:47) - The hyperscale business

(01:02:44) - In-house chip & OpenAI partnership

(01:09:35) - The CAPEX explosion

(01:15:07) - Will the world trust US companies to lead AI?

Read the essay here.

Timestamps

00:00:00 What are we scaling?

00:03:11 The value of human labor

00:05:04 Economic diffusion lag is cope00:06:34 Goal-post shifting is justified

00:08:23 RL scaling

00:09:18 Broadly deployed intelligence explosion

Sean Callagy is with “Miracle on Ice” captain Mike Eruzione to talk about what leadership looks like under impossible pressure, why Olympic moments still unify a divided country, and how belief becomes a standard that future generations can build on.

The conversation also reflects on Team USA winning the men’s hockey gold medal this year (as referenced in the episode’s opening), and how that moment echoes the legacy of 1980.

Beyond the story, Mike breaks down the leadership principles that actually win: staying present, managing emotion, and refusing to carry yesterday into today—whether that’s a mistake, a bad shift, or even a big win. He talks about locker-room leadership and the “quiet decisions” behind legendary outcomes: preparation, discipline, trust, role clarity, and the ability to keep the team steady when pressure spikes. The through-line is simple and hard: belief isn’t hype—it’s earned through habits, composure, and commitment to the next play, and that same mental framework applies far beyond hockey to business, family, and life.

Key Themes

- Leadership doesn’t announce itself. It shows up in moments.

- Why wearing “USA” hits differently than any pro jersey.

- The Miracle on Ice as a blueprint for belief, composure, and team identity.

- Passing the torch: letting new heroes become the standard.

- Giving back: Mike’s charity, scholarships, and the real meaning of legacy.

Episode Highlights

- Mike shares what it’s been like after Milan and why demand for his message surged.

- Sean frames Mike as a rare “unifying” figure in American culture—and Mike responds with humility.

- The behind-the-scenes impact of the Netflix documentary and how it landed emotionally for the team and families.

- Mike breaks down exactly what he told Team USA before gold-medal moments: “the past is over—- this is the game that counts.”

- Mike explains Winthrop Charities, how he funded scholarships, and why giving back is “fun.”

Notable Quotes

“There’s no greater feeling than putting a USA jersey on.”

“Those games are over and those games don’t mean a damn thing. Now you’re playing for the Olympic gold medal.”

“It’s more important to be a good person, be a good neighbor, be a good friend…”

Timestamps

00:00 – The Miracle on Ice legacy and why it still matters

02:45 – Sean’s intro: Milan, gold medals, and why Mike’s message is needed now

04:06 – Mike reacts to the post-Milan surge in attention and speaking requests

07:19 – “USA jersey” pride and what Olympic competition represents

08:45 – The Netflix documentary: what surprised Mike and why it hit so hard

10:46 – Winthrop Charities: why Mike started it and how it gives back

11:48 – Selling memorabilia, funding scholarships, and building a family legacy

12:53 – Sean offers a donation to support Mike’s foundation

14:01 – What Mike told the women’s team before playing for gold

14:53 – What Mike told the men’s team: “this is your time”

16:02 – The gold-winning moment and the “hockey family” behind it

17:38 – Final message: belief, hard work, and being a good person

If you’ve ever needed proof that belief can outlast noise, pressure, and doubt—this interview is it. Mike Eruzione’s legacy isn’t only what happened in 1980. It’s the standard of leadership, humility, and character that keeps getting passed forward.