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Andrej Karpathy — AGI is still a decade away
The Andrej Karpathy episode.
During this interview, Andrej explains why reinforcement learning is terrible (but everything else is much worse), why AGI will just blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth, why self driving took so long to crack, and what he sees as the future of education.
It was a pleasure chatting with him.
Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.
Sponsors
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* Google’s Veo 3.1 update is a notable improvement to an already great model. Veo 3.1’s generations are more coherent and the audio is even higher-quality. If you have a Google AI Pro or Ultra plan, you can try it in Gemini today by visiting https://gemini.google
Timestamps
(00:00:00) – AGI is still a decade away
(00:29:45) – LLM cognitive deficits
(00:40:05) – RL is terrible
(00:49:38) – How do humans learn?
(01:06:25) – AGI will blend into 2% GDP growth
(01:17:36) – ASI
(01:32:50) – Evolution of intelligence & culture
(01:42:55) - Why self driving took so long
(01:56:20) - Future of education
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Satya Nadella — How Microsoft is preparing for AGI
As part of this interview, Satya Nadella gave Dylan Patel (founder of SemiAnalysis) and me an exclusive first-look at their brand-new Fairwater 2 datacenter.
Microsoft is building multiple Fairwaters, each of which has hundreds of thousands of GB200s & GB300s. Between all these interconnected buildings, they’ll have over 2 GW of total capacity. Just to give a frame of reference, even a single one of these Fairwater buildings is more powerful than any other AI datacenter that currently exists.
Satya then answered a bunch of questions about how Microsoft is preparing for AGI across all layers of the stack.
Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.
Sponsors
* Labelbox produces high-quality data at massive scale, powering any capability you want your model to have. Whether you’re building a voice agent, a coding assistant, or a robotics model, Labelbox gets you the exact data you need, fast. Reach out at labelbox.com/dwarkesh
* CodeRabbit automatically reviews and summarizes PRs so you can understand changes and catch bugs in half the time. This is helpful whether you’re coding solo, collaborating with agents, or leading a full team. To learn how CodeRabbit integrates directly into your workflow, go to coderabbit.ai
To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.
Timestamps
(00:00:00) - Fairwater 2
(00:03:20) - Business models for AGI
(00:12:48) - Copilot
(00:20:02) - Whose margins will expand most?
(00:36:17) - MAI
(00:47:47) - The hyperscale business
(01:02:44) - In-house chip & OpenAI partnership
(01:09:35) - The CAPEX explosion
(01:15:07) - Will the world trust US companies to lead AI?
Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
How Hitler almost starved Britain – Sarah Paine
In this lecture, military historian Sarah Paine explains how Britain used sea control, peripheral campaigns, and alliances to defeat Nazi Germany during WWII. She then applies this framework to today, arguing that Russia and China are similarly constrained by their geography, making them vulnerable in any conflict with maritime powers (like the U.S. and its allies).
Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Sponsors
* Labelbox partners with researchers to scope, generate, and deliver the exact data frontier models need, no matter the domain. Whether that’s multi-turn audio, SOTA robotics data, advanced STEM problem sets, or even novel RL environments, Labelbox delivers high-quality data, fast. Learn more at labelbox.com/dwarkesh
* Warp is the best interface I’ve found for coding with agents. It makes building custom tools easy: Warp’s UI helps you understand agent behavior and its in-line text editor is great for making tweaks. You can try Warp for free, or, for a limited time, use code DWARKESH to get Warp’s Pro Plan for only $5. Go to warp.dev/dwarkesh
To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.
Timestamps
00:00:00 – How WW1 shaped WW2
00:15:10 – Hitler and Churchill’s battle to command the Atlantic
00:30:10 – Peripheral theaters leading up to Normandy
00:37:13 – The Eastern front
00:48:04 – Russia’s & China’s geographic prisons
01:00:28 – Hitler’s blunders & America’s industrial might
01:15:03 – Bismarck’s limited wars vs Hitler’s total war
Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
From Broken Ankle to $100K Months — How Ted Stern Turned Police Work Into a Fitness Empire
Trump Panics and Rushes to Situation Room after Shooting!!
Male Roles, Obligations and Options for Building a Fulfilling Life | Scott Galloway
Embiid’s Return, Houston’s Weird Weekend, Joker’s Swoon, and a Knicks Gut Check With Zach Lowe
Shep and Ian Murray: Vineyard Vines. A Stale Product Transforms into a Lifestyle Brand.
In the late 1990s, Shep and Ian Murray looked at a shrinking category–men’s ties–and saw an opportunity: a necktie isn’t just functional. It’s expressive. It can signal identity, taste, aspiration.
With no fashion experience and no outside investors, the Murray brothers started making colorful ties inspired by their childhoods in Martha’s Vineyard — tiny whales, sailboats, island street signs. What began as a small, improbable tie business grew into Vineyard Vines: a half-billion-dollar lifestyle brand with more than 100 stores and major department store distribution.
In this episode, Shep and Ian talk about why they quit their stable jobs to turn a sleepy product into a national brand, which began as a family business and remains so to this day.
What you’ll learn:
- Why a great business can start in a category that everyone thinks is dying
- How to build distribution when you have no roadmap and few connections
- What bootstrapping teaches founders that outside capital often doesn’t
- How improvised marketing can create outsized attention
- Knowing the difference between a fashion brand and a “brand” brand
Timestamps:
- 00:10:22 - The brothers both hate their desk jobs: “How was your day?” “It sucked.”
- 00:11:20 - Vineyard Vines starts on a family trip, with a nudge from a hotel manager
- 00:13:46 - Early designs: whales, fish, jeeps, street signs
- 00:25:39 - Finally quitting their jobs– they’re thrilled, their parents–not so much
- 00:30:42 - Landing their first order for $1800. “We’re never gonna have to work anymore!”
- 00:34:40 - The brand gets a boost from a PR stunt during the Clinton-Lewinsky scandal
- 00:47:00 - The “Get to $5 million” mentor advice that kept them focused
- 00:49:23 - The brothers open their first store - and realize they have a lot to learn
- 01:01:18 - The 2008 financial crisis, and the brutal inventory decisions that help save the business
- 01:09:06 - Why stepping back from the CEO role didn’t work — and what it taught them about brand culture
This episode was produced by Kerry Thompson with music composed by Ramtin Arablouei. It was edited by Neva Grant with research help from Casey Herman.
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