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As part of this interview, Satya Nadella gave Dylan Patel (founder of SemiAnalysis) and me an exclusive first-look at their brand-new Fairwater 2 datacenter.

Microsoft is building multiple Fairwaters, each of which has hundreds of thousands of GB200s & GB300s. Between all these interconnected buildings, they’ll have over 2 GW of total capacity. Just to give a frame of reference, even a single one of these Fairwater buildings is more powerful than any other AI datacenter that currently exists.

Satya then answered a bunch of questions about how Microsoft is preparing for AGI across all layers of the stack.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

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* CodeRabbit automatically reviews and summarizes PRs so you can understand changes and catch bugs in half the time. This is helpful whether you’re coding solo, collaborating with agents, or leading a full team. To learn how CodeRabbit integrates directly into your workflow, go to coderabbit.ai

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) - Fairwater 2

(00:03:20) - Business models for AGI

(00:12:48) - Copilot

(00:20:02) - Whose margins will expand most?

(00:36:17) - MAI

(00:47:47) - The hyperscale business

(01:02:44) - In-house chip & OpenAI partnership

(01:09:35) - The CAPEX explosion

(01:15:07) - Will the world trust US companies to lead AI?

In this lecture, military historian Sarah Paine explains how Britain used sea control, peripheral campaigns, and alliances to defeat Nazi Germany during WWII. She then applies this framework to today, arguing that Russia and China are similarly constrained by their geography, making them vulnerable in any conflict with maritime powers (like the U.S. and its allies).

Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

Sponsors

* Labelbox partners with researchers to scope, generate, and deliver the exact data frontier models need, no matter the domain. Whether that’s multi-turn audio, SOTA robotics data, advanced STEM problem sets, or even novel RL environments, Labelbox delivers high-quality data, fast. Learn more at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

* Warp is the best interface I’ve found for coding with agents. It makes building custom tools easy: Warp’s UI helps you understand agent behavior and its in-line text editor is great for making tweaks. You can try Warp for free, or, for a limited time, use code DWARKESH to get Warp’s Pro Plan for only $5. Go to warp.dev/dwarkesh

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Timestamps

00:00:00 – How WW1 shaped WW2

00:15:10 – Hitler and Churchill’s battle to command the Atlantic

00:30:10 – Peripheral theaters leading up to Normandy

00:37:13 – The Eastern front

00:48:04 – Russia’s & China’s geographic prisons

01:00:28 – Hitler’s blunders & America’s industrial might

01:15:03 – Bismarck’s limited wars vs Hitler’s total war

The Andrej Karpathy episode.

During this interview, Andrej explains why reinforcement learning is terrible (but everything else is much worse), why AGI will just blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth, why self driving took so long to crack, and what he sees as the future of education.

It was a pleasure chatting with him.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

* Labelbox helps you get data that is more detailed, more accurate, and higher signal than you could get by default, no matter your domain or training paradigm. Reach out today at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

* Mercury helps you run your business better. It’s the banking platform we use for the podcast — we love that we can see our accounts, cash flows, AR, and AP all in one place. Apply online in minutes at mercury.com

* Google’s Veo 3.1 update is a notable improvement to an already great model. Veo 3.1’s generations are more coherent and the audio is even higher-quality. If you have a Google AI Pro or Ultra plan, you can try it in Gemini today by visiting https://gemini.google

Timestamps

(00:00:00) – AGI is still a decade away

(00:29:45) – LLM cognitive deficits

(00:40:05) – RL is terrible

(00:49:38) – How do humans learn?

(01:06:25) – AGI will blend into 2% GDP growth

(01:17:36) – ASI

(01:32:50) – Evolution of intelligence & culture

(01:42:55) - Why self driving took so long

(01:56:20) - Future of education

We're in Las Vegas for Max's Bachelor Party and we've had a hell of a weekend. We talk start the show with Sixers/Celtics Game 7, Hank Soggy Sorrows, recapping the whole game and Hank takes questions from the show (00:00:00-00:32:26). We recap all the sports from the weekend. Lebron's insane longevity, the Magic suck at Basketball, Cade Cunningham's ascendence, and more (00:32:26-00:56:39). Who's back of the week including announcing the AWL's who won the book contest and our live show coming up on Tuesday in LA (Buy Tickets) (00:56:39-01:09:23). Jerry O'Connell and Dante the Don join the show to recap Max's bachelor party and some funny stories from the weekend (01:09:23-01:53:53). The Dolente brothers recap Game 7 and we finish with a mystery on who stole Zac's sunglasses

You can find every episode of this show on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or Netflix. Prime Members can listen ad-free on Amazon Music. For more, visit barstool.link/pardon-my-take

Gregg Renfrew started a movement by making better-for-you cosmetics, then enlisted an army of women to build the business through direct sales. But after selling Beautycounter, she was pushed out of the company she created.

Then she got to do something almost no founder gets to do: 

She bought her company back. Then lost it again. Then took the risky step of rebuilding it into a new brand, now called Counter.  

This is a story about ambition, humility, and second chances.  

Gregg learned her first lessons by launching an early online wedding registry and selling it to Martha Stewart. She briefly led a clothing company and was summarily fired—by messenger.

In this candid conversation, Gregg talks about the bold innovation she brought to the beauty industry, and the lessons she learned from working with difficult people—including, at times, herself. 

What You’ll Learn:

How to build a movement—not just a product

The hidden risks of “growth at all costs”

Why direct sales (done right) can outperform traditional DTC

The emotional toll of being fired from your own company

How to rebuild your identity after losing your business

What it takes to come back—and do it differently the second time

Timestamps:

(00:06:15) – Selling Xerox machines and getting doors slammed in her face

(00:08:09) – The early inspiration for an online wedding registry.

(00:16:44) – The brutal lesson of the dot-com crash: “growth at all costs”

(00:21:58) – Standing up to Martha Stewart: “I was cocky.” 

(00:23:51) – Getting fired as CEO… by messenger… in front of her team

(00:32:47) – The moment she realized the beauty industry had a massive gap

(00:35:25) – “Clean beauty didn’t exist”—and why that made it so hard

(00:47:04) – Building a 60,000-person sales force, scaling to hundreds of millions in sales

(00:46:40) – Selling Beautycounter for $1B… and losing control months later

(01:00:13) – The emotional aftermath of being pushed out—and what came next

This episode was produced by John Isabella with music composed by Ramtin Arablouei. It was edited by Neva Grant with research help from Noor Gill. Our engineers were Patrick Murray and Jimmy Keeley.

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