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As part of this interview, Satya Nadella gave Dylan Patel (founder of SemiAnalysis) and me an exclusive first-look at their brand-new Fairwater 2 datacenter.

Microsoft is building multiple Fairwaters, each of which has hundreds of thousands of GB200s & GB300s. Between all these interconnected buildings, they’ll have over 2 GW of total capacity. Just to give a frame of reference, even a single one of these Fairwater buildings is more powerful than any other AI datacenter that currently exists.

Satya then answered a bunch of questions about how Microsoft is preparing for AGI across all layers of the stack.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

* Labelbox produces high-quality data at massive scale, powering any capability you want your model to have. Whether you’re building a voice agent, a coding assistant, or a robotics model, Labelbox gets you the exact data you need, fast. Reach out at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

* CodeRabbit automatically reviews and summarizes PRs so you can understand changes and catch bugs in half the time. This is helpful whether you’re coding solo, collaborating with agents, or leading a full team. To learn how CodeRabbit integrates directly into your workflow, go to coderabbit.ai

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) - Fairwater 2

(00:03:20) - Business models for AGI

(00:12:48) - Copilot

(00:20:02) - Whose margins will expand most?

(00:36:17) - MAI

(00:47:47) - The hyperscale business

(01:02:44) - In-house chip & OpenAI partnership

(01:09:35) - The CAPEX explosion

(01:15:07) - Will the world trust US companies to lead AI?

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The Andrej Karpathy episode.

During this interview, Andrej explains why reinforcement learning is terrible (but everything else is much worse), why AGI will just blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth, why self driving took so long to crack, and what he sees as the future of education.

It was a pleasure chatting with him.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

* Labelbox helps you get data that is more detailed, more accurate, and higher signal than you could get by default, no matter your domain or training paradigm. Reach out today at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

* Mercury helps you run your business better. It’s the banking platform we use for the podcast — we love that we can see our accounts, cash flows, AR, and AP all in one place. Apply online in minutes at mercury.com

* Google’s Veo 3.1 update is a notable improvement to an already great model. Veo 3.1’s generations are more coherent and the audio is even higher-quality. If you have a Google AI Pro or Ultra plan, you can try it in Gemini today by visiting https://gemini.google

Timestamps

(00:00:00) – AGI is still a decade away

(00:29:45) – LLM cognitive deficits

(00:40:05) – RL is terrible

(00:49:38) – How do humans learn?

(01:06:25) – AGI will blend into 2% GDP growth

(01:17:36) – ASI

(01:32:50) – Evolution of intelligence & culture

(01:42:55) - Why self driving took so long

(01:56:20) - Future of education

Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

In this lecture, military historian Sarah Paine explains how Britain used sea control, peripheral campaigns, and alliances to defeat Nazi Germany during WWII. She then applies this framework to today, arguing that Russia and China are similarly constrained by their geography, making them vulnerable in any conflict with maritime powers (like the U.S. and its allies).

Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

Sponsors

* Labelbox partners with researchers to scope, generate, and deliver the exact data frontier models need, no matter the domain. Whether that’s multi-turn audio, SOTA robotics data, advanced STEM problem sets, or even novel RL environments, Labelbox delivers high-quality data, fast. Learn more at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

* Warp is the best interface I’ve found for coding with agents. It makes building custom tools easy: Warp’s UI helps you understand agent behavior and its in-line text editor is great for making tweaks. You can try Warp for free, or, for a limited time, use code DWARKESH to get Warp’s Pro Plan for only $5. Go to warp.dev/dwarkesh

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Timestamps

00:00:00 – How WW1 shaped WW2

00:15:10 – Hitler and Churchill’s battle to command the Atlantic

00:30:10 – Peripheral theaters leading up to Normandy

00:37:13 – The Eastern front

00:48:04 – Russia’s & China’s geographic prisons

01:00:28 – Hitler’s blunders & America’s industrial might

01:15:03 – Bismarck’s limited wars vs Hitler’s total war

Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

What happens when a career-ending injury becomes the catalyst for a completely new life? In today’s episode, Ted Stern (@fitresponder) shares how snapping his ankle on duty pushed him into the online world — and how that single moment transformed him from a frustrated first responder into a multiple 6-figure fitness entrepreneur. Ted breaks down the exact steps he used to scale from making a few thousand a month to consistently hitting $100K+ months, why niching saved his business, how first responders sabotage their own potential, and what it really takes to build a winning culture and team in 2025. We also dive deep into limiting beliefs, environment, accountability, and the mindset every first responder needs if they want to level up their health, income, and identity. Whether you're in law enforcement, an entrepreneur, or someone ready for a transformation — this episode is loaded with real, tactical value. In This Episode You’ll Learn: 🔥 How a broken ankle pushed Ted into online coaching 🔥 The moment he realized he’d never go back to law enforcement 🔥 Why most fitness coaches never break past $10K months 🔥 The mindset shifts that create 6–7 figure entrepreneurs 🔥 How environment and accountability reshape your entire life 🔥 The fitness warning signs every first responder ignores 🔥 Why investing in yourself is the highest ROI decision you’ll ever make Your Network is Your NETWORTH! Make sure to add me on all SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORMS: Instagram: https://jo.my/paulalex2024 Facebook: https://jo.my/fbpaulalex2024 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNB9ivoJf7ppjuSplOAkEZw LinkedIn: https://jo.my/inpaulalex2024 Looking for a secondary source of income or want to become an entrepreneur? Check out one of my companies below to see if we can help you:www.CashSwipe.com FREE Copy of my book “Blue to Digital Gold - The New American Dream”www.officialPaulAlex.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Skylar Grey is a Grammy Award-nominated singer, songwriter, and producer. Her new album, “Wasted Potential,” is available now.https://empire.ffm.to/skylarcomewww.youtube.com/@SkylarGreywww.skylargreymusic.com Perplexity: Download the app or ask Perplexity anything at https://pplx.ai/rogan. Get 30% off + 2 free gifts at https://ARMRA.com/rogan Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Boring is not a bad sign. It means the machine is working. In this episode of The Level Up Podcast, Paul Alex breaks down why the most profitable businesses are usually built on the most boring fundamentals. Let’s be real… Most entrepreneurs are addicted to excitement. New trends. New offers. New strategies. New platforms. But the real money is made by doing the same proven actions over and over again until the results become undeniable. In this episode, you’ll learn: Why repetition is the foundation of real wealth How chasing excitement keeps entrepreneurs stuck Why boring systems create predictable cash flow How mastering the fundamentals leads to long-term freedom The truth is simple: Success is not supposed to feel exciting every single day. Sometimes it looks like checking the numbers. Following the process. Making the calls. Managing the team. Doing the same basic things better than everyone else. That is how you build a machine. That is how you create stability. That is how you buy back your time. When your business becomes boring… Your life can finally become exciting. Stop chasing drama. Master the fundamentals. Build the machine. And let the money compound. Your Network is your NETWORTH! Make sure to add me on all SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORMS: Instagram: https://jo.my/paulalex2024 Facebook: https://jo.my/fbpaulalex2024 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCGhDAD1JyGGzSQUPD9lc9HQ LinkedIn: https://jo.my/inpaulalex2024 Looking for a secondary source of income or want to become an entrepreneur? Check out one of my companies below to see if we can help you: www.CashSwipe.com FREE Copy of my book “Blue to Digital Gold - The New American Dream”www.officialPaulAlex.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

New blackboard lecture with Reiner Pope: how do chips actually work - starting with basic logic gates, and working up to why GPUs, TPUs, FPGAs, and the human brain each look the way they do.

Reiner is CEO of MatX, a new chip startup (full disclosure - I’m an angel investor). He was previously at Google, where he worked on software efficiency, compilers, and TPU architecture.

Watch this one on YouTube so you can see the chalkboard. Read the transcript.

Sponsors

* Crusoe was one of only five GPU clouds that made the gold tier in SemiAnalysis' most recent ClusterMAX report. Gold-tier providers like Crusoe delivered 5-15% lower TCO than silver-tier clouds, even with identical GPU pricing. This is because optimizations like early fault detection and rapid node replacement don't necessarily show up in the sticker price, but still matter a ton in the real world. Learn more at crusoe.ai/dwarkesh

* Cursor is where I do most of my work—from reading research papers to visualizing technical concepts to coding up internal tools for the podcast. Most recently, I used it to build two different review interfaces for my essay contest, one that anonymizes submissions for scoring and another that lets me see applicants' essays next to their resumes and websites. Whatever you're working on, you should try doing it in Cursor. Get started at cursor.com/dwarkesh

* Jane Street let me ask Ron Minsky and Dan Pontecorvo, two senior Jane Streeters, a bunch of questions about how they use AI. We discussed everything from the types of models they're training to how they think about the future of trading to why they're more bullish than ever on hiring technical talent. You can watch the full conversation and learn more about their open positions at janestreet.com/dwarkesh

Timestamps

00:00:00 – Building a multiply-accumulate from logic gates

00:16:31 – Muxes and the cost of data movement

00:26:10 – How systolic arrays work

00:39:11 – Clock cycles and pipeline registers

00:51:51 – FPGAs vs ASICs

01:03:25 – Cache vs scratchpad

01:07:27 – Why CPU cores are much bigger than GPU cores

01:12:00 – Brains vs chips

01:15:33 – A GPU is just a bunch of tiny TPUs

Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

1. Prince William Teases Appearance at Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce's Wedding (PEOPLE) (23:31) 2. Amanda Batula, West Wilson mark major relationship milestone as ‘Summer House’ cast doubts ‘they’re going to last’ (Page Six) (30:03) 3. Handcuffed Britney Spears fails sobriety test in shocking DUI arrest video (Page Six) (37:31) 4. ‘The Odyssey’ leading ladies go elemental for glam Elle magazine covers (Page Six) (46:54) 5. Hooters Is Rebranding as Family-Friendly as CEO Says 'We've Never Switched' from Being a 'Neighborhood Place' (PEOPLE) (50:36) - Queenie and Weenie of The Week (53:15) The Toast with Jackie (@JackieOshry) and Claudia Oshry (@girlwithnojob) ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Toast Patreon ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Toast Merch ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Girl With No Job by Claudia Oshry ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Camper & The Counselor⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Lean In⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices