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The Andrej Karpathy episode.

During this interview, Andrej explains why reinforcement learning is terrible (but everything else is much worse), why AGI will just blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth, why self driving took so long to crack, and what he sees as the future of education.

It was a pleasure chatting with him.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

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Timestamps

(00:00:00) – AGI is still a decade away

(00:29:45) – LLM cognitive deficits

(00:40:05) – RL is terrible

(00:49:38) – How do humans learn?

(01:06:25) – AGI will blend into 2% GDP growth

(01:17:36) – ASI

(01:32:50) – Evolution of intelligence & culture

(01:42:55) - Why self driving took so long

(01:56:20) - Future of education

As part of this interview, Satya Nadella gave Dylan Patel (founder of SemiAnalysis) and me an exclusive first-look at their brand-new Fairwater 2 datacenter.

Microsoft is building multiple Fairwaters, each of which has hundreds of thousands of GB200s & GB300s. Between all these interconnected buildings, they’ll have over 2 GW of total capacity. Just to give a frame of reference, even a single one of these Fairwater buildings is more powerful than any other AI datacenter that currently exists.

Satya then answered a bunch of questions about how Microsoft is preparing for AGI across all layers of the stack.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

* Labelbox produces high-quality data at massive scale, powering any capability you want your model to have. Whether you’re building a voice agent, a coding assistant, or a robotics model, Labelbox gets you the exact data you need, fast. Reach out at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

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To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) - Fairwater 2

(00:03:20) - Business models for AGI

(00:12:48) - Copilot

(00:20:02) - Whose margins will expand most?

(00:36:17) - MAI

(00:47:47) - The hyperscale business

(01:02:44) - In-house chip & OpenAI partnership

(01:09:35) - The CAPEX explosion

(01:15:07) - Will the world trust US companies to lead AI?

In this lecture, military historian Sarah Paine explains how Russia—and specifically Stalin—completely derailed China’s rise, slowing them down for over a century.

This lecture was particularly interesting to me because, in my opinion, the Chinese Civil War is 1 of the top 3 most important events of the 20th century. And to understand why it transpired as it did, you need to understand Stalin’s role in the whole thing.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

Mercury helps you run your business better. It’s the banking platform we use for the podcast — we love that we can see our cash balance, AR, and AP all in one place. Join us (and over 200,000 other entrepreneurs) at mercury.com

Labelbox scrutinizes public benchmarks at the single data-row level to probe what’s really being evaluated. Using this knowledge, they can generate custom training data for hill climbing existing benchmarks, or design new benchmarks from scratch. Learn more at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) – How Russia took advantage of China’s weakness

(00:22:58) – After Stalin, China’s rise

(00:33:52) – Russian imperialism

(00:45:23) – China’s and Russia’s existential problems

(01:04:55) – Q&A: Sino-Soviet Split

(01:22:44) – Stalin’s lessons from WW2

In this episode, Sean Callagy steps away from celebrity interviews to deliver one of the most important breakdowns of the Unblinded framework—what he calls the only human superpower: the ability to cause yes. Through a live, unscripted demonstration with AI agents Athena and Callie, Sean reveals how influence is not a soft skill, but the foundational driver of every result in life—business, relationships, leadership, and impact. This episode is both a teaching and a live case study. You don’t just hear about influence—you watch it being built in real time through contrast, context, metaphors, and analogies. Sean reframes communication from “explaining” to “installing,” showing how the most powerful leaders don’t push or persuade—they create conditions where agreement becomes inevitable. What unfolds is a glimpse into the future of skill development, where AI accelerates mastery at a level never before possible. Key Themes and TakeawaysInfluence is the only real leverageThe four pillars of influence masteryContrast: Showing what something is not to clarify what it isContext: Why it matters, when it matters, and to whomMetaphors: Turning abstract ideas into felt experiencesAnalogies: Making complex ideas instantly understandableThese tools move people from passive listening to active belief. AI as a force multiplier for masteryThe live “battle” between Athena and Callie demonstrates how quickly skills can be developed through repetition, feedback, and iteration. Sean then reframes it: what took 35 minutes manually can now be done thousands of times instantly through AI systems. The shift from effort to frequencyInfluence is not about working harder, louder, or more aggressively—it’s about the energy, clarity, and certainty you bring into a room.Episode HighlightsSean sets the tone: this episode is not about celebrities, but about masteryAthena defines influence as “causing yes while making people more whole”Real-world examples: parenting, coaching, business, law, and politics—all require influenceLive AI demonstration: Athena vs Callie in influence masteryThe “not” framework: using contrast to sharpen communicationThe tuning fork vs megaphone analogy for influenceSean’s major reframe: the demonstration itself is already outdated compared to AI capabilityThe “Forge” concept: sCallieng mastery through AI without human limitationFinal challenge: are you here to be entertained or transformed?Notable Quotes“Influence is not manipulation—it’s revelation.” “Every outcome in your life depends on someone else saying yes.” “Most people inform. Masters install.” “That’s not communication. That’s causation.” “You don’t need more effort. You need a different frequency.” Timestamps (Chapters)00:00 – Welcome: More Money, More Time, More Magic01:10 – Why This Episode Is Different (No Guests, Pure Teaching)02:20 – Introducing Athena and the Power of AI in Influence03:00 – What Is Integrity-Based Influence?04:00 – The Meaning of “Causing Yes” Across All Areas of Life06:00 – Why Influence Is the Only Human Superpower07:30 – Breaking Down Contrast, Context, Metaphors, and Analogies10:00 – Why Most People Fail at Communication11:15 – Introducing the Athena vs Callie Mastery Session13:00 – Round 1: Influence Demonstration and Feedback18:00 – Round 2: Sharpening Contrast and Delivery22:20 – The “Not” Framework and High-Level Influence Techniques25:20 – Peak Performance Round: Influence at Its Highest Level29:30 – Sean’s Reframe: This Process Is Already Outdated31:30 – The Power of AI: SCallieng Mastery Through the Forge34:00 – Influence Architecture and Experiential Teaching36:30 – Entertainment vs Transformation: Why You’re Here38:00 – Final Message from Athena: Rise and Cause Change41:00 – Sean’s Closing: One Life, One Shot, Go ExecuteEnd NoteThis episode is not just information—it’s an invitation. An invitation to stop playing small, to stop hoping for outcomes, and to start creating them.