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Andrej Karpathy — AGI is still a decade away
The Andrej Karpathy episode.
During this interview, Andrej explains why reinforcement learning is terrible (but everything else is much worse), why AGI will just blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth, why self driving took so long to crack, and what he sees as the future of education.
It was a pleasure chatting with him.
Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.
Sponsors
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* Google’s Veo 3.1 update is a notable improvement to an already great model. Veo 3.1’s generations are more coherent and the audio is even higher-quality. If you have a Google AI Pro or Ultra plan, you can try it in Gemini today by visiting https://gemini.google
Timestamps
(00:00:00) – AGI is still a decade away
(00:29:45) – LLM cognitive deficits
(00:40:05) – RL is terrible
(00:49:38) – How do humans learn?
(01:06:25) – AGI will blend into 2% GDP growth
(01:17:36) – ASI
(01:32:50) – Evolution of intelligence & culture
(01:42:55) - Why self driving took so long
(01:56:20) - Future of education
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Satya Nadella — How Microsoft is preparing for AGI
As part of this interview, Satya Nadella gave Dylan Patel (founder of SemiAnalysis) and me an exclusive first-look at their brand-new Fairwater 2 datacenter.
Microsoft is building multiple Fairwaters, each of which has hundreds of thousands of GB200s & GB300s. Between all these interconnected buildings, they’ll have over 2 GW of total capacity. Just to give a frame of reference, even a single one of these Fairwater buildings is more powerful than any other AI datacenter that currently exists.
Satya then answered a bunch of questions about how Microsoft is preparing for AGI across all layers of the stack.
Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.
Sponsors
* Labelbox produces high-quality data at massive scale, powering any capability you want your model to have. Whether you’re building a voice agent, a coding assistant, or a robotics model, Labelbox gets you the exact data you need, fast. Reach out at labelbox.com/dwarkesh
* CodeRabbit automatically reviews and summarizes PRs so you can understand changes and catch bugs in half the time. This is helpful whether you’re coding solo, collaborating with agents, or leading a full team. To learn how CodeRabbit integrates directly into your workflow, go to coderabbit.ai
To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.
Timestamps
(00:00:00) - Fairwater 2
(00:03:20) - Business models for AGI
(00:12:48) - Copilot
(00:20:02) - Whose margins will expand most?
(00:36:17) - MAI
(00:47:47) - The hyperscale business
(01:02:44) - In-house chip & OpenAI partnership
(01:09:35) - The CAPEX explosion
(01:15:07) - Will the world trust US companies to lead AI?
Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
How Hitler almost starved Britain – Sarah Paine
In this lecture, military historian Sarah Paine explains how Britain used sea control, peripheral campaigns, and alliances to defeat Nazi Germany during WWII. She then applies this framework to today, arguing that Russia and China are similarly constrained by their geography, making them vulnerable in any conflict with maritime powers (like the U.S. and its allies).
Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Sponsors
* Labelbox partners with researchers to scope, generate, and deliver the exact data frontier models need, no matter the domain. Whether that’s multi-turn audio, SOTA robotics data, advanced STEM problem sets, or even novel RL environments, Labelbox delivers high-quality data, fast. Learn more at labelbox.com/dwarkesh
* Warp is the best interface I’ve found for coding with agents. It makes building custom tools easy: Warp’s UI helps you understand agent behavior and its in-line text editor is great for making tweaks. You can try Warp for free, or, for a limited time, use code DWARKESH to get Warp’s Pro Plan for only $5. Go to warp.dev/dwarkesh
To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.
Timestamps
00:00:00 – How WW1 shaped WW2
00:15:10 – Hitler and Churchill’s battle to command the Atlantic
00:30:10 – Peripheral theaters leading up to Normandy
00:37:13 – The Eastern front
00:48:04 – Russia’s & China’s geographic prisons
01:00:28 – Hitler’s blunders & America’s industrial might
01:15:03 – Bismarck’s limited wars vs Hitler’s total war
Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
From Broken Ankle to $100K Months — How Ted Stern Turned Police Work Into a Fitness Empire
Trump has 11 PM Psychotic Meltdown as Iran Responds!!
Master Self Control & Overcome Procrastination | Dr. Kentaro Fujita
Room & Board: John Gabbert. A Broken Deal, a Family Rift, and the Birth of a Furniture Giant
John Gabbert built a massive furniture brand. But in order to do it, he had to defy his family.
John grew up working at his dad’s furniture store in the suburbs of Minneapolis. It sold classic, American-made furniture, with flowery prints and curved legs. But in 1972, John took a life-changing trip to Sweden, where he discovered an obscure store called IKEA. It was selling an entirely different type of furniture: simple, modern, and inexpensive, with a manufacturing process they controlled. To John, it looked like the future of furniture. The only problem, his dad didn’t agree.
That disagreement led to a 10-year family rift—but also a new business.
In 1980—zafter a deal to buy out his dad broke down—John spun out his own furniture brand, Room & Board. Today, it sells hundreds of millions of dollars of furniture in its own classic designs, mostly made by small American manufacturers.
This is the story of how John did it, without outside investors, and without chasing growth for growth’s sake.
What You’ll Learn
Why the right thing for your business might be the hardest thing for your family
How John connected with young boomers—not their parents
The key to long-term success: growing slow and saying “no”
Why John refused private equity money
Why Room & Board transitioned to employee ownership
Timestamps:
00:06:10 - Gabberts: flowery furniture in a fake living room
00:09:41 - Becoming president of the family business at age 23
00:13:33 - A fateful trip to IKEA in Sweden: “That's what the future needed to be”
00:18:36 - John tries to buy out the family business… until his dad backs out
00:35:47 - Design inspiration from modern art—and steel frames
00:46:38 - Why making furniture in America makes sense
00:55:27 - Investors come to call… and John says no
01:01:48 - The decision that transferred ownership to employees
This episode was produced by Chris Maccini with music composed by Ramtin Arablouei. It was edited by Neva Grant with research help from Rommel Wood. Our engineers were Patrick Murray and Kwesi Lee.
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