Find shows
you love

The Andrej Karpathy episode.

During this interview, Andrej explains why reinforcement learning is terrible (but everything else is much worse), why AGI will just blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth, why self driving took so long to crack, and what he sees as the future of education.

It was a pleasure chatting with him.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

* Labelbox helps you get data that is more detailed, more accurate, and higher signal than you could get by default, no matter your domain or training paradigm. Reach out today at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

* Mercury helps you run your business better. It’s the banking platform we use for the podcast — we love that we can see our accounts, cash flows, AR, and AP all in one place. Apply online in minutes at mercury.com

* Google’s Veo 3.1 update is a notable improvement to an already great model. Veo 3.1’s generations are more coherent and the audio is even higher-quality. If you have a Google AI Pro or Ultra plan, you can try it in Gemini today by visiting https://gemini.google

Timestamps

(00:00:00) – AGI is still a decade away

(00:29:45) – LLM cognitive deficits

(00:40:05) – RL is terrible

(00:49:38) – How do humans learn?

(01:06:25) – AGI will blend into 2% GDP growth

(01:17:36) – ASI

(01:32:50) – Evolution of intelligence & culture

(01:42:55) - Why self driving took so long

(01:56:20) - Future of education

As part of this interview, Satya Nadella gave Dylan Patel (founder of SemiAnalysis) and me an exclusive first-look at their brand-new Fairwater 2 datacenter.

Microsoft is building multiple Fairwaters, each of which has hundreds of thousands of GB200s & GB300s. Between all these interconnected buildings, they’ll have over 2 GW of total capacity. Just to give a frame of reference, even a single one of these Fairwater buildings is more powerful than any other AI datacenter that currently exists.

Satya then answered a bunch of questions about how Microsoft is preparing for AGI across all layers of the stack.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

* Labelbox produces high-quality data at massive scale, powering any capability you want your model to have. Whether you’re building a voice agent, a coding assistant, or a robotics model, Labelbox gets you the exact data you need, fast. Reach out at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

* CodeRabbit automatically reviews and summarizes PRs so you can understand changes and catch bugs in half the time. This is helpful whether you’re coding solo, collaborating with agents, or leading a full team. To learn how CodeRabbit integrates directly into your workflow, go to coderabbit.ai

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) - Fairwater 2

(00:03:20) - Business models for AGI

(00:12:48) - Copilot

(00:20:02) - Whose margins will expand most?

(00:36:17) - MAI

(00:47:47) - The hyperscale business

(01:02:44) - In-house chip & OpenAI partnership

(01:09:35) - The CAPEX explosion

(01:15:07) - Will the world trust US companies to lead AI?

In this lecture, military historian Sarah Paine explains how Britain used sea control, peripheral campaigns, and alliances to defeat Nazi Germany during WWII. She then applies this framework to today, arguing that Russia and China are similarly constrained by their geography, making them vulnerable in any conflict with maritime powers (like the U.S. and its allies).

Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

Sponsors

* Labelbox partners with researchers to scope, generate, and deliver the exact data frontier models need, no matter the domain. Whether that’s multi-turn audio, SOTA robotics data, advanced STEM problem sets, or even novel RL environments, Labelbox delivers high-quality data, fast. Learn more at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

* Warp is the best interface I’ve found for coding with agents. It makes building custom tools easy: Warp’s UI helps you understand agent behavior and its in-line text editor is great for making tweaks. You can try Warp for free, or, for a limited time, use code DWARKESH to get Warp’s Pro Plan for only $5. Go to warp.dev/dwarkesh

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Timestamps

00:00:00 – How WW1 shaped WW2

00:15:10 – Hitler and Churchill’s battle to command the Atlantic

00:30:10 – Peripheral theaters leading up to Normandy

00:37:13 – The Eastern front

00:48:04 – Russia’s & China’s geographic prisons

01:00:28 – Hitler’s blunders & America’s industrial might

01:15:03 – Bismarck’s limited wars vs Hitler’s total war

What if the thing you care about most ... might be what’s holding your business back?

Daniel Lubetzky didn’t leave his law job to build a straightforward business. He left it to build a company he believed would support peace in the Middle East. Daniel named it, aptly, PeaceWorks. It partnered with Israeli and Arab businesses across the region to make and sell gourmet foods—together.

But Daniel ran into a big problem: he discovered that lots of people don’t shop for a “cause”. Most people buy things they like—especially when it comes to food.

Soon, Daniel was scrambling to find new revenue streams to support PeaceWorks. When he got the chance to sell an Australian snack bar in the U.S., he jumped on it—and did really well! But when Daniel's ONE big retailer dropped it, profits tanked.

Daniel faced a brutal choice: Walk away… or start over.

What came next was a leap of faith. He decided to create his OWN bar. It was almost completely unlike the competition at the time: It was made of whole nuts, fruits, sea salt, and a little chocolate—all easy to see in a novel, transparent wrapping. 

Daniel named his company KIND, and when he sold it to Mars in 2020, it was valued at $5 billion!

This is a story about why mission alone doesn't sell, how failure forces clarity, and the moment every founder faces when they must decide: Do I keep going ... or do I quit?

What you’ll learn:

Why customers don’t buy your mission—they buy your product

The hidden danger of being “too purpose-driven”

How to pivot without abandoning what matters to you

Why control over manufacturing can make or break your business

The surprising power of retail placement (and why checkout counters changed everything)

How scarcity thinking can limit growth—even when you’re winning

Why saying “yes” to the wrong opportunity (like Walmart too early) can hurt you

Timestamps:

00:06:18 – “It really did shape almost all of my decisions”: How Daniel's father survived the Holocaust and built a new life in Mexico

00:17:40 – A landmark meeting of world leaders—and a dramatic career change

00:19:30 – From a bankrupt sun-dried tomato spread to PeaceWorks

00:24:29 – “They think you're adorable”: Why a mission isn’t enough to grow a business

00:30:59 – Overnight collapse: Finding a big, new revenue stream—then losing it

00:36:47 – The creation of the KIND bar

00:47:36 – “You couldn't say no to Walmart”: Entering big box too early

00:49:28 – The investment that pulled Daniel away from PeaceWorks

00:55:43 – Starbucks and sampling: How KIND became a household name

01:03:05 – An acquisition worth billions

01:06:25 – Daniel's new mission: Builders vs. destroyers

This episode was produced by Alex Cheng with music by Ramtin Arablouei. It was edited by Andrea Bruce with research help from Noor Gill. Our engineers were Maggie Luthar and Robert Rodriguez.

Follow How I Built This:

Instagram → @howibuiltthis

X → @HowIBuiltThis

Facebook → How I Built This

Follow Guy Raz:

Instagram → @guy.raz

Youtube → guy_raz

X → @guyraz

Substack → guyraz.substack.com

Website → guyraz.com

See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.