Find shows
you love

The Andrej Karpathy episode.

During this interview, Andrej explains why reinforcement learning is terrible (but everything else is much worse), why AGI will just blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth, why self driving took so long to crack, and what he sees as the future of education.

It was a pleasure chatting with him.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

* Labelbox helps you get data that is more detailed, more accurate, and higher signal than you could get by default, no matter your domain or training paradigm. Reach out today at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

* Mercury helps you run your business better. It’s the banking platform we use for the podcast — we love that we can see our accounts, cash flows, AR, and AP all in one place. Apply online in minutes at mercury.com

* Google’s Veo 3.1 update is a notable improvement to an already great model. Veo 3.1’s generations are more coherent and the audio is even higher-quality. If you have a Google AI Pro or Ultra plan, you can try it in Gemini today by visiting https://gemini.google

Timestamps

(00:00:00) – AGI is still a decade away

(00:29:45) – LLM cognitive deficits

(00:40:05) – RL is terrible

(00:49:38) – How do humans learn?

(01:06:25) – AGI will blend into 2% GDP growth

(01:17:36) – ASI

(01:32:50) – Evolution of intelligence & culture

(01:42:55) - Why self driving took so long

(01:56:20) - Future of education

Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

What happens when two world-class Latin dancers mix culture, community, and entrepreneurship? You get Lee Edward Smith (@leeelgringuito) & Katherine Aguilar (@kataguilarsmith) — the power couple behind DCBX (@dcbxevents), Rhythm Investor, and one of the strongest relationship-driven networks in real estate today. In this episode, we dive deep into how they transformed their passion for dance into a multi-industry empire built on connection, culture, and elite-level networking. 🌎✨ From hosting one of the largest Latin dance festivals in the world… → to building bridges with investors, entrepreneurs, and even billionaires… → to breaking into commercial real estate without coming from the industry… Lee & Katherine show you that your greatest advantages are the skills you already have — if you learn to leverage them correctly. 🔑 This conversation is packed with: 🔥 How to pivot industries without starting over 🔥 The power of culture in building communities & brands 🔥 How to attract high-level players into your network 🔥 Lessons from DCBX and Rhythm Investor 🔥 Mindset shifts that help couples build together — not apart 🔥 And the real importance of showing up in the rooms that matter If you’re an entrepreneur, creator, investor, or anyone looking to scale through relationships — this episode is your blueprint. 🚀 Make sure to add me on all platforms: Instagram: https://jo.my/paulalex2024 Facebook: https://jo.my/fbpaulalex2024 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCNB9ivoJf7ppjuSplOAkEZw LinkedIn: https://jo.my/inpaulalex2024 Looking for a secondary source of income or want to become an entrepreneur? Check out one of my companies below to see if we can help you:www.CashSwipe.com FREE Copy of my book “Blue to Digital Gold - The New American Dream”www.officialPaulAlex.com YOUR NETWORK IS YOUR NETWORTH! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

As part of this interview, Satya Nadella gave Dylan Patel (founder of SemiAnalysis) and me an exclusive first-look at their brand-new Fairwater 2 datacenter.

Microsoft is building multiple Fairwaters, each of which has hundreds of thousands of GB200s & GB300s. Between all these interconnected buildings, they’ll have over 2 GW of total capacity. Just to give a frame of reference, even a single one of these Fairwater buildings is more powerful than any other AI datacenter that currently exists.

Satya then answered a bunch of questions about how Microsoft is preparing for AGI across all layers of the stack.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

* Labelbox produces high-quality data at massive scale, powering any capability you want your model to have. Whether you’re building a voice agent, a coding assistant, or a robotics model, Labelbox gets you the exact data you need, fast. Reach out at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

* CodeRabbit automatically reviews and summarizes PRs so you can understand changes and catch bugs in half the time. This is helpful whether you’re coding solo, collaborating with agents, or leading a full team. To learn how CodeRabbit integrates directly into your workflow, go to coderabbit.ai

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) - Fairwater 2

(00:03:20) - Business models for AGI

(00:12:48) - Copilot

(00:20:02) - Whose margins will expand most?

(00:36:17) - MAI

(00:47:47) - The hyperscale business

(01:02:44) - In-house chip & OpenAI partnership

(01:09:35) - The CAPEX explosion

(01:15:07) - Will the world trust US companies to lead AI?

Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

In this lecture, military historian Sarah Paine explains how Russia—and specifically Stalin—completely derailed China’s rise, slowing them down for over a century.

This lecture was particularly interesting to me because, in my opinion, the Chinese Civil War is 1 of the top 3 most important events of the 20th century. And to understand why it transpired as it did, you need to understand Stalin’s role in the whole thing.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

Mercury helps you run your business better. It’s the banking platform we use for the podcast — we love that we can see our cash balance, AR, and AP all in one place. Join us (and over 200,000 other entrepreneurs) at mercury.com

Labelbox scrutinizes public benchmarks at the single data-row level to probe what’s really being evaluated. Using this knowledge, they can generate custom training data for hill climbing existing benchmarks, or design new benchmarks from scratch. Learn more at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) – How Russia took advantage of China’s weakness

(00:22:58) – After Stalin, China’s rise

(00:33:52) – Russian imperialism

(00:45:23) – China’s and Russia’s existential problems

(01:04:55) – Q&A: Sino-Soviet Split

(01:22:44) – Stalin’s lessons from WW2

Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

The boys sit down with the masterminds behind Radio Silence Productions - Matt Bettinelli-Olpin & Tyler Gillett, Directors of the explosive new dark comedy horror, Ready or Not 2: Here I Come in theaters TODAY - March 20th!

Mark Normand is a stand-up comedian, actor, and co-host of the podcasts “Tuesdays with Stories!” and “We Might Be Drunk.” His new special, “None Too Pleased,” is now streaming on Netflix.www.netflix.com/title/82155387www.youtube.com/@marknormandwww.marknormandcomedy.com Perplexity: Download the app or ask Perplexity anything at https://pplx.ai/rogan. Get a free welcome kit with your first subscription of AG1 at https://drinkag1.com/joerogan Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

We begin the episode with the absolutely ingenious and surprising way in which Kepler discovered the laws of planetary motion.

People sometimes say that AI will make especially fast progress at scientific discovery because of tight verification loops.

But the story of how we discovered the shape of our solar system shows how the verification loop for correct ideas can be decades (or even millennia) long.

During this time, what we know today as the better theory can actually make worse predictions.

And the reasons it survives this epistemic hell is some mixture of judgment and heuristics that we don’t even understand well enough to actually articulate, much less codify into an RL loop. Hope you enjoy!

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

- Jane Street loves challenging my audience with different creative puzzles. One of my listeners, Shawn, solved Jane Street’s ResNet challenge and posted a great walk-through on X. If you want to try one of these puzzles yourself, there’s one live now at janestreet.com/dwarkesh.

- Labelbox can get you rubric-based evals, no matter your domain. These rubrics allow you to give your model feedback on all the dimensions you care about, so you can train how it thinks, not just what it thinks. Whatever you’re focused on—math, physics, finance, psychology or something else—Labelbox can help. Learn more at labelbox.com/dwarkesh.

- Mercury just released a new feature called Insights. Insights summarizes your money in and out, showing you your biggest transactions and calling out anything worth paying attention to. It’s a super low-friction way to stay on top of your business. Learn more at mercury.com/insights.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) – Kepler was a high temperature LLM

(00:11:44) – How would we know if there’s a new unifying concept within heaps of AI slop?

(00:26:10) – The deductive overhang

(00:30:31) – Selection bias in reported AI discoveries

(00:46:43) – AI makes papers richer and broader, but not deeper

(00:53:00) – If AI solves a problem, can humans get understanding out of it?

(00:59:20) – We need a semi-formal language for the way that scientists actually talk to each other

(01:09:48) – How Terry uses his time

(01:17:05) – Human-AI hybrids will dominate math for a lot longer

Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

Everyone is chasing the next big trend… but the real money is being made in businesses most people overlook. In this episode of The Level Up Podcast, Paul Alex breaks down why “boring” businesses are often the most profitable, scalable, and reliable paths to building long-term wealth. While many entrepreneurs focus on going viral, building a personal brand, or launching the next flashy product, the truth is that consistent cash flow is usually built through infrastructure—services and systems that people use every single day. From payment processing to essential B2B services, the biggest opportunities often come from solving real, recurring problems instead of chasing attention. In this episode, you’ll learn: Why infrastructure-based businesses outperform trend-driven opportunities How recurring revenue and retention create predictable, scalable income Why focusing on utility and volume leads to long-term financial stability How to build a business that generates income without relying on constant visibility or virality The most successful entrepreneurs aren’t chasing attention—they’re building systems that quietly generate revenue behind the scenes. Because at the end of the day, flashy businesses may get the spotlight… but boring businesses build real wealth. Your Network is your NETWORTH! Make sure to add me on all SOCIAL MEDIA PLATFORMS: Instagram: https://jo.my/paulalex2024 Facebook: https://jo.my/fbpaulalex2024 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCGhDAD1JyGGzSQUPD9lc9HQ LinkedIn: https://jo.my/inpaulalex2024 Looking for a secondary source of income or want to become an entrepreneur? Check out one of my companies below to see if we can help you: www.CashSwipe.com FREE Copy of my book “Blue to Digital Gold - The New American Dream”www.officialPaulAlex.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices