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From Broken Ankle to $100K Months — How Ted Stern Turned Police Work Into a Fitness Empire
Andrej Karpathy — AGI is still a decade away
The Andrej Karpathy episode.
During this interview, Andrej explains why reinforcement learning is terrible (but everything else is much worse), why AGI will just blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth, why self driving took so long to crack, and what he sees as the future of education.
It was a pleasure chatting with him.
Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.
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Timestamps
(00:00:00) – AGI is still a decade away
(00:29:45) – LLM cognitive deficits
(00:40:05) – RL is terrible
(00:49:38) – How do humans learn?
(01:06:25) – AGI will blend into 2% GDP growth
(01:17:36) – ASI
(01:32:50) – Evolution of intelligence & culture
(01:42:55) - Why self driving took so long
(01:56:20) - Future of education
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Satya Nadella — How Microsoft is preparing for AGI
As part of this interview, Satya Nadella gave Dylan Patel (founder of SemiAnalysis) and me an exclusive first-look at their brand-new Fairwater 2 datacenter.
Microsoft is building multiple Fairwaters, each of which has hundreds of thousands of GB200s & GB300s. Between all these interconnected buildings, they’ll have over 2 GW of total capacity. Just to give a frame of reference, even a single one of these Fairwater buildings is more powerful than any other AI datacenter that currently exists.
Satya then answered a bunch of questions about how Microsoft is preparing for AGI across all layers of the stack.
Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.
Sponsors
* Labelbox produces high-quality data at massive scale, powering any capability you want your model to have. Whether you’re building a voice agent, a coding assistant, or a robotics model, Labelbox gets you the exact data you need, fast. Reach out at labelbox.com/dwarkesh
* CodeRabbit automatically reviews and summarizes PRs so you can understand changes and catch bugs in half the time. This is helpful whether you’re coding solo, collaborating with agents, or leading a full team. To learn how CodeRabbit integrates directly into your workflow, go to coderabbit.ai
To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.
Timestamps
(00:00:00) - Fairwater 2
(00:03:20) - Business models for AGI
(00:12:48) - Copilot
(00:20:02) - Whose margins will expand most?
(00:36:17) - MAI
(00:47:47) - The hyperscale business
(01:02:44) - In-house chip & OpenAI partnership
(01:09:35) - The CAPEX explosion
(01:15:07) - Will the world trust US companies to lead AI?
Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
How Hitler almost starved Britain – Sarah Paine
In this lecture, military historian Sarah Paine explains how Britain used sea control, peripheral campaigns, and alliances to defeat Nazi Germany during WWII. She then applies this framework to today, arguing that Russia and China are similarly constrained by their geography, making them vulnerable in any conflict with maritime powers (like the U.S. and its allies).
Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Sponsors
* Labelbox partners with researchers to scope, generate, and deliver the exact data frontier models need, no matter the domain. Whether that’s multi-turn audio, SOTA robotics data, advanced STEM problem sets, or even novel RL environments, Labelbox delivers high-quality data, fast. Learn more at labelbox.com/dwarkesh
* Warp is the best interface I’ve found for coding with agents. It makes building custom tools easy: Warp’s UI helps you understand agent behavior and its in-line text editor is great for making tweaks. You can try Warp for free, or, for a limited time, use code DWARKESH to get Warp’s Pro Plan for only $5. Go to warp.dev/dwarkesh
To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.
Timestamps
00:00:00 – How WW1 shaped WW2
00:15:10 – Hitler and Churchill’s battle to command the Atlantic
00:30:10 – Peripheral theaters leading up to Normandy
00:37:13 – The Eastern front
00:48:04 – Russia’s & China’s geographic prisons
01:00:28 – Hitler’s blunders & America’s industrial might
01:15:03 – Bismarck’s limited wars vs Hitler’s total war
Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
Trump-Xi Summit, Benioff: "Not My First SaaSpocalypse," OpenAI vs Apple, Multi-Sensory AI, El Niño
(0:00) Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff joins the show!
(1:14) Trump-Xi summit, doing business in China as a US company, impact on Americans and the midterms
(18:46) Taiwan, chips, AI models, and peace through trade
(31:41) AI's impact on software: What SaaS thrives, what SaaS dies?
(47:26) OpenAI is considering suing Apple over failed ChatGPT integration
(56:54) Thinking Machines releases real-time model, future of consumer AI, multi-sensory models
(1:02:24) Science Corner: Impacts of a historically strong El Nino in 2026
(1:11:40) Anthropic goes after "Dark SPVs"
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Intro Music Credit:
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Referenced in the show:
https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-before-2027
https://polymarket.com/event/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-december-31-2027
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/world/asia/china-xi-trump-taiwan-warning.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/13/technology/andreessen-horowitz-politics.html
https://www.instagram.com/reels/DYJZFn0R6oY
https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/openai-launches-4-billion-ai-134916653.html
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KO53gwuqZUQ
Jerome Powell and the Future of Fed Independence
It’s impossibly important for the Federal Reserve to steer monetary policy without political interference – an ideal pushed to its brink during Jerome Powell’s time as Fed Chair.
Powell’s Fed faced a once-in-a-century pandemic, oversaw the economy as inflation spiked to about 9 percent … went back down to nearly 2 percent … and has started to go back up as the U.S. has gone to war and continued to try and implement the most comprehensive tariffs since the early 1900s.
But perhaps Powell will be best remembered as a target – of angry tweets, speeches, and ultimately a criminal investigation, by the very president who nominated him in the first place.
On Powell’s last day as chair, we ask where his story fits into the sweep of history. We’ll hear from someone who was on the Fed Board when Powell was appointed … and when President Trump started to pressure Powell. Plus, we learn what to watch for to see if Fed Independence is crumbling – or holding – as a new Fed Chair nominated by President Trump takes office.
Recommend Listening:
- Happy Fed Independence Day
- The case for Fed independence in the Nixon tapes
- A primer on the Federal Reserve's independence
- Trump's unprecedented attack on the Fed
- Should presidents have more of a say in interest rates?
- Lisa Cook and the fight for the Fed
- What happens to central banks under pressure?
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This episode was hosted by Kenny Malone and Erika Beras. It was produced by Sam Yellowhorse Kesler, edited by Jess Jiang, fact-checked by Sierra Juarez, and engineered by Robert Rodriguez and Cena Loffredo. Planet Money’s executive producer is Alex Goldmark.
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Vitalik Buterin on Human Agency in the AI Era
