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The Andrej Karpathy episode.

During this interview, Andrej explains why reinforcement learning is terrible (but everything else is much worse), why AGI will just blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth, why self driving took so long to crack, and what he sees as the future of education.

It was a pleasure chatting with him.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

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Timestamps

(00:00:00) – AGI is still a decade away

(00:29:45) – LLM cognitive deficits

(00:40:05) – RL is terrible

(00:49:38) – How do humans learn?

(01:06:25) – AGI will blend into 2% GDP growth

(01:17:36) – ASI

(01:32:50) – Evolution of intelligence & culture

(01:42:55) - Why self driving took so long

(01:56:20) - Future of education

In this lecture, military historian Sarah Paine explains how Russia—and specifically Stalin—completely derailed China’s rise, slowing them down for over a century.

This lecture was particularly interesting to me because, in my opinion, the Chinese Civil War is 1 of the top 3 most important events of the 20th century. And to understand why it transpired as it did, you need to understand Stalin’s role in the whole thing.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

Mercury helps you run your business better. It’s the banking platform we use for the podcast — we love that we can see our cash balance, AR, and AP all in one place. Join us (and over 200,000 other entrepreneurs) at mercury.com

Labelbox scrutinizes public benchmarks at the single data-row level to probe what’s really being evaluated. Using this knowledge, they can generate custom training data for hill climbing existing benchmarks, or design new benchmarks from scratch. Learn more at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) – How Russia took advantage of China’s weakness

(00:22:58) – After Stalin, China’s rise

(00:33:52) – Russian imperialism

(00:45:23) – China’s and Russia’s existential problems

(01:04:55) – Q&A: Sino-Soviet Split

(01:22:44) – Stalin’s lessons from WW2

As part of this interview, Satya Nadella gave Dylan Patel (founder of SemiAnalysis) and me an exclusive first-look at their brand-new Fairwater 2 datacenter.

Microsoft is building multiple Fairwaters, each of which has hundreds of thousands of GB200s & GB300s. Between all these interconnected buildings, they’ll have over 2 GW of total capacity. Just to give a frame of reference, even a single one of these Fairwater buildings is more powerful than any other AI datacenter that currently exists.

Satya then answered a bunch of questions about how Microsoft is preparing for AGI across all layers of the stack.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

* Labelbox produces high-quality data at massive scale, powering any capability you want your model to have. Whether you’re building a voice agent, a coding assistant, or a robotics model, Labelbox gets you the exact data you need, fast. Reach out at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

* CodeRabbit automatically reviews and summarizes PRs so you can understand changes and catch bugs in half the time. This is helpful whether you’re coding solo, collaborating with agents, or leading a full team. To learn how CodeRabbit integrates directly into your workflow, go to coderabbit.ai

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) - Fairwater 2

(00:03:20) - Business models for AGI

(00:12:48) - Copilot

(00:20:02) - Whose margins will expand most?

(00:36:17) - MAI

(00:47:47) - The hyperscale business

(01:02:44) - In-house chip & OpenAI partnership

(01:09:35) - The CAPEX explosion

(01:15:07) - Will the world trust US companies to lead AI?

Read the essay here.

Timestamps

00:00:00 What are we scaling?

00:03:11 The value of human labor

00:05:04 Economic diffusion lag is cope00:06:34 Goal-post shifting is justified

00:08:23 RL scaling

00:09:18 Broadly deployed intelligence explosion

In this deep-dive conversation, Kevin Mayer joins Sean Callagy to unpack one of the most consequential leadership journeys in modern media.

From his early engineering roots to reshaping The Walt Disney Company, Kevin shares how Disney anticipated disruption, why brands matter more in an age of infinite choice, and what it truly takes to cannibalize your own success before the market does it for you.

Kevin walks through the strategic decisions behind acquiring Pixar, Marvel, and Lucasfilm, launching Disney+, stepping into the role of CEO at TikTok, and ultimately building a diversified future beyond a single point of failure.

This episode is a masterclass on courage, humility, ecosystem thinking, and long-term vision.

Timestamps & Chapter Breakdown

00:00 – 02:00

Introduction and early background

02:00 – 05:30

From aspiring naval pilot to engineer and strategist

05:30 – 09:30

Entering Disney and seeing technology before it reshaped entertainment

09:30 – 13:30

Blockbuster, friction, and why mediocre content was doomed

13:30 – 18:30

Why brands matter in a world of infinite choice

18:30 – 22:30

The Pixar acquisition and Steve Jobs’ influence

22:30 – 27:30

Building ecosystems, not just IP

27:30 – 33:30

The Disney+ decision: cannibalizing billions to win the future

33:30 – 38:30

Launching Disney+ and the explosive subscriber growth

38:30 – 43:30

Leaving Disney and stepping into TikTok

43:30 – 48:30

National security, AI, and the realities of global platforms

48:30 – 52:30

Avoiding single points of failure in your career

52:30 – 57:30

Candle Media, Cocomelon, and building modern media studios

57:30 – 1:03:00

AI, agentic systems, and the future of decision-making

1:03:00 – 1:10:30

Leadership, humility, and long-term thinking

1:10:30 – 1:13:30

Final reflections and closing wisdom

Key Highlights

- Why brands become decision-making shortcuts in a world of endless content

- How Disney intentionally disrupted its own profit model

- The leadership courage required to “burn the boats” publicly

- Lessons from nearly becoming Disney’s CEO

- What TikTok revealed about AI, attention, and influence

- Why Kevin now builds multiple paths instead of one role

Standout Quotes

“In a world of infinite choice, only the highest-quality brands survive.”

“The hardest thing for a company to do is disrupt a business that’s still profitable.”

“If you don’t cannibalize yourself, someone else will.”

“There’s no shortcut to success — it’s still about doing the hard work.”

“Avoid single points of failure, in business and in life.”

End Note

This episode is a rare look behind the curtain of global decision-making at the highest level. Kevin Mayer’s journey reminds us that real leadership isn’t about protecting what works — it’s about having the courage to let it go, build again, and stay humble while doing it.

If you’re building something meant to last, this conversation isn’t optional listening