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In this lecture, military historian Sarah Paine explains how Russia—and specifically Stalin—completely derailed China’s rise, slowing them down for over a century.

This lecture was particularly interesting to me because, in my opinion, the Chinese Civil War is 1 of the top 3 most important events of the 20th century. And to understand why it transpired as it did, you need to understand Stalin’s role in the whole thing.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

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Labelbox scrutinizes public benchmarks at the single data-row level to probe what’s really being evaluated. Using this knowledge, they can generate custom training data for hill climbing existing benchmarks, or design new benchmarks from scratch. Learn more at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

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Timestamps

(00:00:00) – How Russia took advantage of China’s weakness

(00:22:58) – After Stalin, China’s rise

(00:33:52) – Russian imperialism

(00:45:23) – China’s and Russia’s existential problems

(01:04:55) – Q&A: Sino-Soviet Split

(01:22:44) – Stalin’s lessons from WW2

As part of this interview, Satya Nadella gave Dylan Patel (founder of SemiAnalysis) and me an exclusive first-look at their brand-new Fairwater 2 datacenter.

Microsoft is building multiple Fairwaters, each of which has hundreds of thousands of GB200s & GB300s. Between all these interconnected buildings, they’ll have over 2 GW of total capacity. Just to give a frame of reference, even a single one of these Fairwater buildings is more powerful than any other AI datacenter that currently exists.

Satya then answered a bunch of questions about how Microsoft is preparing for AGI across all layers of the stack.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

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* Labelbox produces high-quality data at massive scale, powering any capability you want your model to have. Whether you’re building a voice agent, a coding assistant, or a robotics model, Labelbox gets you the exact data you need, fast. Reach out at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

* CodeRabbit automatically reviews and summarizes PRs so you can understand changes and catch bugs in half the time. This is helpful whether you’re coding solo, collaborating with agents, or leading a full team. To learn how CodeRabbit integrates directly into your workflow, go to coderabbit.ai

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Timestamps

(00:00:00) - Fairwater 2

(00:03:20) - Business models for AGI

(00:12:48) - Copilot

(00:20:02) - Whose margins will expand most?

(00:36:17) - MAI

(00:47:47) - The hyperscale business

(01:02:44) - In-house chip & OpenAI partnership

(01:09:35) - The CAPEX explosion

(01:15:07) - Will the world trust US companies to lead AI?

Read the essay here.

Timestamps

00:00:00 What are we scaling?

00:03:11 The value of human labor

00:05:04 Economic diffusion lag is cope00:06:34 Goal-post shifting is justified

00:08:23 RL scaling

00:09:18 Broadly deployed intelligence explosion

The Andrej Karpathy episode.

During this interview, Andrej explains why reinforcement learning is terrible (but everything else is much worse), why AGI will just blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth, why self driving took so long to crack, and what he sees as the future of education.

It was a pleasure chatting with him.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

* Labelbox helps you get data that is more detailed, more accurate, and higher signal than you could get by default, no matter your domain or training paradigm. Reach out today at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

* Mercury helps you run your business better. It’s the banking platform we use for the podcast — we love that we can see our accounts, cash flows, AR, and AP all in one place. Apply online in minutes at mercury.com

* Google’s Veo 3.1 update is a notable improvement to an already great model. Veo 3.1’s generations are more coherent and the audio is even higher-quality. If you have a Google AI Pro or Ultra plan, you can try it in Gemini today by visiting https://gemini.google

Timestamps

(00:00:00) – AGI is still a decade away

(00:29:45) – LLM cognitive deficits

(00:40:05) – RL is terrible

(00:49:38) – How do humans learn?

(01:06:25) – AGI will blend into 2% GDP growth

(01:17:36) – ASI

(01:32:50) – Evolution of intelligence & culture

(01:42:55) - Why self driving took so long

(01:56:20) - Future of education

What does it really take to will an impossible vision into existence?In this unforgettable episode of Unblinded, Sean Callagy sits down with legendary producer Mike Uslan, the man who helped bring Batman to the big screen when everyone said it would never happen.This is not just a Hollywood story.It’s a masterclass in conviction, persistence, rejection, and identity-level belief.

Mike opens up about decades of “no’s,” being dismissed by studios, losing jobs, burning bridges — and why none of it mattered once he committed fully to the vision he knew was right.This conversation is about betting on yourself before the world agrees with you.What You’ll Hear in This Episode- Why Batman was considered “dead” in Hollywood — and how Mike refused to accept it.- The unseen emotional toll of carrying a vision alone for years.- How rejection sharpens belief instead of weakening it.- Why conviction must come before validation, not after.- The difference between “wanting success” and being willing to suffer for it.- How identity — not talent — determines who breaks through.- What most people misunderstand about perseverance.- Why believing early is lonely… and unavoidable.Timestamps00:00 – Opening: Belief Before PermissionSean sets the tone for a conversation about conviction, rejection, and seeing what others miss.04:45 – “They Told Me Batman Was Dead”Mike shares the moment Hollywood dismissed Batman—and why he refused to accept it.11:30 – Early Rejection & Creative IsolationWhat it feels like to believe in something no one else does.18:10 – Conviction vs. ValidationWhy external approval is a dangerous compass for creators and leaders.25:05 – The Long Road to Batman’s RevivalYears of persistence, setbacks, and quiet belief before the breakthrough.32:40 – Timing, Patience, and Staying the CourseWhy success often arrives later than expected—but right on time.39:50 – Identity, Integrity, and Creative CourageHolding your values when pressure demands compromise.47:20 – Influence Without Selling Your SoulHow Mike navigated power dynamics without losing himself.55:15 – Storytelling That EnduresWhy timeless stories come from truth, not trends.1:02:30 – Failure, Pain, and the Cost of BeliefThe emotional toll of staying committed when outcomes are uncertain.1:10:45 – Legacy Is Built in Invisible MomentsThe unseen work that defines impact more than applause.1:18:20 – Advice for Creators, Entrepreneurs, and DreamersMike’s guidance for anyone building something meaningful.1:26:40 – Reflection on Batman, Culture, and ImpactWhat Batman became—and what it still represents.1:35:15 – Final Lessons on Belief and EnduranceWhy the impossible often just needs time and faith.1:48:30 – Closing Thoughts & GratitudeSean and Mike reflect on legacy, belief, and staying true. Powerful Quotes from the Episode“They told me Batman was dead. I knew they were wrong.”“If you believe in something deeply enough, you’re willing to endure being misunderstood.”“The only way this doesn’t work is if you quit.”“Nobody joins you at the beginning. That’s the cost of being first.”Key Takeaways- Vision precedes permission.- Rejection is information, not identity.- Most people quit right before momentum begins.- True believers don’t need consensus.- Legacy is built by people who refuse to let go.Why This Episode MattersIf you’ve ever:Been told your idea was unrealistic.Felt alone in your conviction.Questioned whether the fight was worth it.Wondered how long belief has to last before results show up.This episode is for you.This conversation is a reminder that the world doesn’t reward potential —it rewards people who refuse to let go of what they see before it exists.