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The Andrej Karpathy episode.

During this interview, Andrej explains why reinforcement learning is terrible (but everything else is much worse), why AGI will just blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth, why self driving took so long to crack, and what he sees as the future of education.

It was a pleasure chatting with him.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

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Timestamps

(00:00:00) – AGI is still a decade away

(00:29:45) – LLM cognitive deficits

(00:40:05) – RL is terrible

(00:49:38) – How do humans learn?

(01:06:25) – AGI will blend into 2% GDP growth

(01:17:36) – ASI

(01:32:50) – Evolution of intelligence & culture

(01:42:55) - Why self driving took so long

(01:56:20) - Future of education

As part of this interview, Satya Nadella gave Dylan Patel (founder of SemiAnalysis) and me an exclusive first-look at their brand-new Fairwater 2 datacenter.

Microsoft is building multiple Fairwaters, each of which has hundreds of thousands of GB200s & GB300s. Between all these interconnected buildings, they’ll have over 2 GW of total capacity. Just to give a frame of reference, even a single one of these Fairwater buildings is more powerful than any other AI datacenter that currently exists.

Satya then answered a bunch of questions about how Microsoft is preparing for AGI across all layers of the stack.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

* Labelbox produces high-quality data at massive scale, powering any capability you want your model to have. Whether you’re building a voice agent, a coding assistant, or a robotics model, Labelbox gets you the exact data you need, fast. Reach out at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

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To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) - Fairwater 2

(00:03:20) - Business models for AGI

(00:12:48) - Copilot

(00:20:02) - Whose margins will expand most?

(00:36:17) - MAI

(00:47:47) - The hyperscale business

(01:02:44) - In-house chip & OpenAI partnership

(01:09:35) - The CAPEX explosion

(01:15:07) - Will the world trust US companies to lead AI?

In this lecture, military historian Sarah Paine explains how Britain used sea control, peripheral campaigns, and alliances to defeat Nazi Germany during WWII. She then applies this framework to today, arguing that Russia and China are similarly constrained by their geography, making them vulnerable in any conflict with maritime powers (like the U.S. and its allies).

Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

Sponsors

* Labelbox partners with researchers to scope, generate, and deliver the exact data frontier models need, no matter the domain. Whether that’s multi-turn audio, SOTA robotics data, advanced STEM problem sets, or even novel RL environments, Labelbox delivers high-quality data, fast. Learn more at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

* Warp is the best interface I’ve found for coding with agents. It makes building custom tools easy: Warp’s UI helps you understand agent behavior and its in-line text editor is great for making tweaks. You can try Warp for free, or, for a limited time, use code DWARKESH to get Warp’s Pro Plan for only $5. Go to warp.dev/dwarkesh

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Timestamps

00:00:00 – How WW1 shaped WW2

00:15:10 – Hitler and Churchill’s battle to command the Atlantic

00:30:10 – Peripheral theaters leading up to Normandy

00:37:13 – The Eastern front

00:48:04 – Russia’s & China’s geographic prisons

01:00:28 – Hitler’s blunders & America’s industrial might

01:15:03 – Bismarck’s limited wars vs Hitler’s total war

In this powerful episode, Sean Callagy sits down with David Maisel, founder of Marvel Studios and creator of the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

David shares the inside story of how Marvel went from a struggling company with limited resources to one of the most successful entertainment brands in history. He opens up about the resistance he faced, the challenge of convincing Marvel leadership to build its own movie studio, and why the idea of a comic book company making $100 million films was once considered impossible.

He also reveals how Iron Man became the first major bet, why Robert Downey Jr. was the perfect choice for Tony Stark, and how Marvel built not just movies, but a connected universe that changed Hollywood forever.

This conversation is more than entertainment. It is a masterclass in vision, storytelling, risk, value creation, innovation, and staying committed to an idea even when the world doubts it.

Timestamps

00:00 – Opening teaser: the Marvel decision that changed everything01:06 – David Maisel returns to the Unblinded stage03:28 – From global speaking stages to worldwide mythology07:34 – Shared values, leadership, and getting to yes12:03 – The overlooked state of Iron Man before the MCU13:46 – How the Marvel Cinematic Universe idea was born16:17 – Nobody wanted Thor, Captain America, or The Avengers17:35 – The impossible pitch: Marvel making its own movies19:18 – The hardest yes: Ike Perlmutter, Mar-a-Lago, and Marvel’s future30:35 – Fighting for Marvel Studios when everyone doubted it36:25 – The creative and business genius behind Iron Man56:58 – Profit, ownership, and building the future beyond Marvel

Episode Highlights

• David Maisel reflects on sharing the Marvel origin story.

• David explains how the Saudi FII conference led to a conversation about worldwide mythology.

• Sean and David discuss shared values, freedom of expression, and finding common ground.

• David reveals Iron Man was only selling around 5,000 comics per month before the movie.

• David shares that Hollywood did not want Thor, Captain America, or The Avengers at the time.

• David explains how Marvel’s characters were scattered across different studios.

• David reveals Warner Brothers had Iron Man for years and could have blocked Marvel from getting him back.

• David tells the story of pitching Ike Perlmutter at Mar-a-Lago.

• David shares how he almost got fired, secured $525 million in financing, and watched Marvel’s stock drop for four years.

• David breaks down the strategy behind Iron Man, Robert Downey Jr., Kevin Feige, Marvel’s profitability, and future universes.

Key Takeaways

• Vision often looks crazy before it works. Marvel Studios seemed impossible at the time, but David saw what others missed.

• The biggest opportunities are often hidden in overlooked assets. Iron Man was not Marvel’s biggest character, but David saw the deeper story inside Tony Stark.

• Ownership matters. Marvel’s ability to control its characters allowed it to build the MCU instead of licensing everything away.

• Story drives connection. David focused on character, emotion, humor, and audience connection.

• Business structure matters as much as creative vision. Iron Man’s profitability came from smart budgeting, ownership, and deal structure.

• Risk can create massive upside when paired with strategy. Starting with Iron Man was risky, but it helped Marvel build deeper audience loyalty before The Avengers.

• Great casting is about authenticity. David believed Robert Downey Jr. was Tony Stark because the role connected with his real personality and life story.

• Success requires both creativity and analytics. David’s strength was combining storytelling, business, and strategy.

• Don’t give up too early. Marvel’s stock dropped for four years, but David stayed committed to the vision.

• Build legacy without losing yourself. David’s story shows that success is also about integrity, reputation, and staying true to who you are.