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Andrej Karpathy — AGI is still a decade away
The Andrej Karpathy episode.
During this interview, Andrej explains why reinforcement learning is terrible (but everything else is much worse), why AGI will just blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth, why self driving took so long to crack, and what he sees as the future of education.
It was a pleasure chatting with him.
Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.
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Timestamps
(00:00:00) – AGI is still a decade away
(00:29:45) – LLM cognitive deficits
(00:40:05) – RL is terrible
(00:49:38) – How do humans learn?
(01:06:25) – AGI will blend into 2% GDP growth
(01:17:36) – ASI
(01:32:50) – Evolution of intelligence & culture
(01:42:55) - Why self driving took so long
(01:56:20) - Future of education
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Satya Nadella — How Microsoft is preparing for AGI
As part of this interview, Satya Nadella gave Dylan Patel (founder of SemiAnalysis) and me an exclusive first-look at their brand-new Fairwater 2 datacenter.
Microsoft is building multiple Fairwaters, each of which has hundreds of thousands of GB200s & GB300s. Between all these interconnected buildings, they’ll have over 2 GW of total capacity. Just to give a frame of reference, even a single one of these Fairwater buildings is more powerful than any other AI datacenter that currently exists.
Satya then answered a bunch of questions about how Microsoft is preparing for AGI across all layers of the stack.
Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.
Sponsors
* Labelbox produces high-quality data at massive scale, powering any capability you want your model to have. Whether you’re building a voice agent, a coding assistant, or a robotics model, Labelbox gets you the exact data you need, fast. Reach out at labelbox.com/dwarkesh
* CodeRabbit automatically reviews and summarizes PRs so you can understand changes and catch bugs in half the time. This is helpful whether you’re coding solo, collaborating with agents, or leading a full team. To learn how CodeRabbit integrates directly into your workflow, go to coderabbit.ai
To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.
Timestamps
(00:00:00) - Fairwater 2
(00:03:20) - Business models for AGI
(00:12:48) - Copilot
(00:20:02) - Whose margins will expand most?
(00:36:17) - MAI
(00:47:47) - The hyperscale business
(01:02:44) - In-house chip & OpenAI partnership
(01:09:35) - The CAPEX explosion
(01:15:07) - Will the world trust US companies to lead AI?
Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
Sarah Paine — How Russia sabotaged China's rise
In this lecture, military historian Sarah Paine explains how Russia—and specifically Stalin—completely derailed China’s rise, slowing them down for over a century.
This lecture was particularly interesting to me because, in my opinion, the Chinese Civil War is 1 of the top 3 most important events of the 20th century. And to understand why it transpired as it did, you need to understand Stalin’s role in the whole thing.
Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.
Sponsors
Mercury helps you run your business better. It’s the banking platform we use for the podcast — we love that we can see our cash balance, AR, and AP all in one place. Join us (and over 200,000 other entrepreneurs) at mercury.com
Labelbox scrutinizes public benchmarks at the single data-row level to probe what’s really being evaluated. Using this knowledge, they can generate custom training data for hill climbing existing benchmarks, or design new benchmarks from scratch. Learn more at labelbox.com/dwarkesh
To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.
Timestamps
(00:00:00) – How Russia took advantage of China’s weakness
(00:22:58) – After Stalin, China’s rise
(00:33:52) – Russian imperialism
(00:45:23) – China’s and Russia’s existential problems
(01:04:55) – Q&A: Sino-Soviet Split
(01:22:44) – Stalin’s lessons from WW2
Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe
Thoughts on AI progress (Dec 2025)
Read the essay here.
Timestamps
00:00:00 What are we scaling?
00:03:11 The value of human labor
00:05:04 Economic diffusion lag is cope00:06:34 Goal-post shifting is justified
00:08:23 RL scaling
00:09:18 Broadly deployed intelligence explosion
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Trump Suffers Utter Humiliation during War with Fatal Polling!!!
Graham Allison on the Global Realignment: Iran, China, Israel, Greenland
(0:00) The Besties welcome legendary Harvard professor Graham Allison
(1:14) Iran Conflict: Strategy, Netanyahu's influence, Trump's motivation, redefining Middle East security
(11:44) Iran endgame scenarios: Democracy, extremism, second-order effects
(21:07) Israel: Is Netanyahu destroying Israel's democracy?
(24:28) China: Taiwan invasion, trade, and Trump's April meeting
(39:50) Greenland: Importance, deal scenarios, EU socialism angle
(48:58) Nuclear proliferation: 80-80-9 framework explained
(56:20) Rising socialism in America: wealth inequality and political risk
Thanks to our partner Airwallex!
Airwallex is a leading global payments and financial platform for modern businesses,offering trusted solutions to manage everything from business accounts, payments, treasury, and spend management to embedded finance.
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Trump Panics as War Backfires and Cripples Term
