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Andrej Karpathy — AGI is still a decade away
The Andrej Karpathy episode.
During this interview, Andrej explains why reinforcement learning is terrible (but everything else is much worse), why AGI will just blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth, why self driving took so long to crack, and what he sees as the future of education.
It was a pleasure chatting with him.
Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.
Sponsors
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* Google’s Veo 3.1 update is a notable improvement to an already great model. Veo 3.1’s generations are more coherent and the audio is even higher-quality. If you have a Google AI Pro or Ultra plan, you can try it in Gemini today by visiting https://gemini.google
Timestamps
(00:00:00) – AGI is still a decade away
(00:29:45) – LLM cognitive deficits
(00:40:05) – RL is terrible
(00:49:38) – How do humans learn?
(01:06:25) – AGI will blend into 2% GDP growth
(01:17:36) – ASI
(01:32:50) – Evolution of intelligence & culture
(01:42:55) - Why self driving took so long
(01:56:20) - Future of education
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How Lee Edward Smith & Katherine Aguilar Turned Dance, Culture & Real Estate Into an Empire

How Hitler almost starved Britain – Sarah Paine
In this lecture, military historian Sarah Paine explains how Britain used sea control, peripheral campaigns, and alliances to defeat Nazi Germany during WWII. She then applies this framework to today, arguing that Russia and China are similarly constrained by their geography, making them vulnerable in any conflict with maritime powers (like the U.S. and its allies).
Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.
Sponsors
* Labelbox partners with researchers to scope, generate, and deliver the exact data frontier models need, no matter the domain. Whether that’s multi-turn audio, SOTA robotics data, advanced STEM problem sets, or even novel RL environments, Labelbox delivers high-quality data, fast. Learn more at labelbox.com/dwarkesh
* Warp is the best interface I’ve found for coding with agents. It makes building custom tools easy: Warp’s UI helps you understand agent behavior and its in-line text editor is great for making tweaks. You can try Warp for free, or, for a limited time, use code DWARKESH to get Warp’s Pro Plan for only $5. Go to warp.dev/dwarkesh
To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.
Timestamps
00:00:00 – How WW1 shaped WW2
00:15:10 – Hitler and Churchill’s battle to command the Atlantic
00:30:10 – Peripheral theaters leading up to Normandy
00:37:13 – The Eastern front
00:48:04 – Russia’s & China’s geographic prisons
01:00:28 – Hitler’s blunders & America’s industrial might
01:15:03 – Bismarck’s limited wars vs Hitler’s total war
Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

From Door-to-Door Sales to Multi-Million Deals: Justin Colby’s Brutal Entrepreneur Truths

Geographic Arbitrage and Mental Resets

Trump Gets Torched by Four-Star General Over War!!

Furious World Leaders Stick the Dagger in Trump as War Backfires


