--:-- [Theme music fades out]
--:-- Georgia Howe: Welcome to Morning Wire, I'm Georgia Howe.
--:-- John Bickley: And I'm John Bickley, Daily Wire Editor-in-Chief.
--:-- Georgia Howe: It's Sunday, March 17th, and this is an extra edition of Morning Wire.
--:-- John Bickley: Joining us to discuss the state of the 2024 presidential election is Signal pollster Brent Buchanan.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Thanks for having me on, Georgia.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Good morning, Brent. So first off, Super Tuesday is over. We're officially down to a 2020 rematch. How are voters evaluating these two candidates that they've already seen before?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: It's a very different election in 24 compared to 20, because in 2020, we had a pandemic. Donald Trump was the incumbent and had his record to run on that out, you know, pre-pandemic was actually a pretty darn good record that voters liked. And Biden got to hide in the basement. So the election was basically Trump versus himself.
--:-- John Bickley: That's a great point. And I think this upcoming election, assuming the Democrats don't swap out Biden now that Trump has the nomination, is going to look a lot more like 2016 where Trump gets to play the insurgent. And that is a role that he is much better at than incumbent.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: And what are some things that we learned from Super Tuesday and some of the results since?
--:-- Georgia Howe: I live in Arlington, Virginia, which for those of you who aren't familiar with it, is just right across the river from Washington, D.C. and it is as progressive and borderline communist as one would think. And I was shocked at how many people were at my precinct pulling Republican primary ballots. I've never walked in that precinct before and heard somebody else ask for a Republican primary ballot but me.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: And I think if you look at the election results, I think Haley won Arlington County something like 75-25 against Trump. And so much of what we've seen in Haley's, quote, strength, which I wouldn't say getting to a third in an election is a whole lot of strength, is simply Democrat crossover in states that allow it.
--:-- John Bickley: If this election, this primary election were just for Republicans, I think Donald Trump would have trounced her much sooner, and he would have trounced her by significantly more margin.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: So this narrative that Donald Trump has a weakness, you know, these rich suburban voters who came out to support Nikki Haley, they're never going to support Donald Trump in a general election and they probably voted for Biden in 2020. So I think that's complete bunk to say that there's this third of Republican voters who are going to give Donald Trump a problem.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I think what is a bigger problem is go look at Minnesota and you had some places where committed or anybody not named Joe Biden in the Democrat primary received almost 50 percent. Well, what did those areas have in common? Muslim voters.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: I think Joe Biden has a bigger problem in states that matter than Trump might have in states.
--:-- John Bickley: Now, you've brought up Minnesota. I know there was some weakness for Biden there, as well as North Carolina and Massachusetts. Did anything else stand out?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: You know, I think in places like that, it's actually Democrat crossover. So if Democrats come and vote in the Republican primary, then that means they didn't vote in the Democrat primary. So you essentially took Biden voters away from Biden in his primary because they were over meddling in the Republican primary.
--:-- Georgia Howe: We hear a lot about undecided voters. How many undecided voters are actually out there at this point?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: I would say there's not as many undecided voters as unengaged voters. You know, most people in America are living their lives and would rather not think about politics.
--:-- John Bickley: And somebody who says they're undecided is likely a secret partisan who's not paying attention or is frustrated with both parties or it's a person who's very low propensity and to them it's more about am I going to show up, take my time returning a ballot or go into the ballot box or am I going to stay home?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: And one thing that we look at in all of our general election surveys is we ask who did you vote for in 2020 in the presidential race And then we go look at people who say they undecided in the current race And you can go see how those undecided people voted in 2020. And that's why I say they're either secret, frustrated partisans or very, very low propensity voters.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Now, the legacy media continues to harp on this idea that voters hate Trump and will not come out for him. What are your findings?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Trump is the most animating figure in American political turnout that I have ever seen on both sides of the aisle.
--:-- John Bickley: You know, the only hope that Joe Biden has is that enough people don't like Donald Trump to go vote against him and happen to vote for Biden.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: But the problem that Biden has is there's likely going to be in the states that matter a viable third-party candidate, an RFK Jr. And I mean viable in that gets more than one-tenth of one percent.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I mean, he has zero shot at all. But what people aren't thinking about is if you go back to 2016, the only reason that Donald Trump became president is because of Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: And it wasn't necessarily that Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton. I mean, he did, but the bulk of those Green Party voters would have been Clinton voters had Stein not been on the ballot.
--:-- John Bickley: So, you know, that's why I think that having, you know, a Cornel West and a Jill Stein and an RFK Jr. on the ballot hurts Biden significantly more than it hurts Donald Trump.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: But, you know, if you go look at academic research, the number one motivating factor in what causes somebody to choose to vote and then take that action is the emotion of anger.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So you're either angry about the way things are headed and you want to make America great again or save America and you're going to go vote for Donald Trump or you're really angry at Donald Trump as a person. And so you're going to go vote against Donald Trump, which probably is for Biden, but not 100 percent of them will be this go around.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: I think RFK Jr. You think he's going to be a bigger problem for Biden?
--:-- John Bickley: You can like somebody and not vote for him. You can like three people, like in a Republican primary, you can like three people in the race, but you only get to pull one lever.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: So them liking RFK doesn't mean they're going to vote for him.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And I have challenged folks who have said that, that maybe don't like Trump and think that RFK Jr. has some shot in their unicorn and fairytale world. And they can't name a single thing that RFK has a position on that Trump doesn't have the same or a better position.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: So when voters are making this choice, you know, more further to the right voters are making a choice, there's not a lot that RFK brings to the table that Trump doesn't already give you plus electability.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Now, I want to talk about immigration. How much do you think immigration is going to matter for this election cycle?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Right now, it matters a lot. But the caveat on that is that a lot's going to change between now and November 5th.
--:-- John Bickley: You know, we used to have 24-hour news cycles. Now we have 24-minute news cycles. And who knows what the thing is going to be.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: But I do believe that this migration crisis of illegal immigrants and, you know, I don't even know if that's the right title because if you go back 20 years to when we had the same problem or 30 years we had the same problem, it was families coming across the border.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And now the majority of people coming across the border or fighting age single men from countries all over the world, not just Mexico and Central America.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: And so I think what's likely going to happen is you're going to see a situation like happened with Riley Lincoln in Athens, Georgia, murdered by an illegal immigrant.
--:-- John Bickley: And, you know, these police, and I forget where it was, being jumped by illegal immigrants.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: I think the crime that comes from it and the destabilization of security that Americans feel is going to be what ultimately is the election issue because of this porous border.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Let's talk about favorability and how the candidates actually stand up against each other. From your research, if there was a head-to-head of Trump and Biden, which one do you think comes out on top?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: I mean, I think held today, it's Donald Trump.
--:-- John Bickley: And when you talking about favorability that something we track every month nationally And if you go back to November of last year through February of this year Joe Biden favorability, very unfavorability, has increased 10% higher than it was before, is very favorable, has dropped significantly by about the same margin.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: So when you're looking at a net change in favorability, that's drastic.
--:-- John Bickley: And then when you look at Donald Trump, who is, I mean, he's not well-liked. He's got 50, in our last February poll of national general election likely voters, he was at 53% unfavorability, but Biden was at 55% unfavorability.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: And, you know, when you look at favorability, Trump's about three points higher than Biden is.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So that's a net difference of six points, which is a very big difference in a race where voters kind of feel they have to pick the best of two evils.
--:-- John Bickley: And I'm not saying the candidates are, but I think that's the election we're headed towards. It's a lot like 2016, where you had two candidates with very upside down images.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: And at the end of the day, you got to pick one of them.
--:-- Georgia Howe: The New York Times recently ran a piece about how people's memory of Trump is becoming more rosy over time. What are your thoughts on how the two presidents' records or even just the general public's impression of the two are standing up against each other at this point?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, I mean, I think that is a really good point.
--:-- John Bickley: And we also do every other month a congressional battleground survey where we take, I think it's 49 or 50, the most competitive congressional seats and then run a survey within just those. and we asked a question about job approval.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: And we said, do you approve or disapprove of Biden's job as president? And that's 55% disapprove.
--:-- John Bickley: And then we said, do you approve or disapprove of the job that Donald Trump did as president? 47% disapproval and 45% approval.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: So there was almost a 10-point difference in approval and a nine-point difference in disapproval.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So I mean, that's a massive, almost 20-point net difference between how people view the way Trump was as president, not as a person, but in what he accomplished, and Biden.
--:-- John Bickley: And so, you know, a lot of elections are based on nostalgia. Is my life better today than it was the last time this election occurred?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: And that is a really damning question that voters are going to be asking themselves for Joe Biden.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Now, we also have the Trump legal issues going on. How much do you think that's going to matter?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: So, for example, we have dueling narratives in the media. Obviously, legacy media believes that getting these convictions is going to really hurt Trump.
--:-- John Bickley: But then you also hear there's a rival narrative that Trump voters don't care and that they think this is politically motivated.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Which one do you think is more accurate when it comes to the actual voters who Trump could potentially get?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: I think this was a very poor strategic error on the part of Democrats to go after him legally, like a dictatorship would.
--:-- John Bickley: And the fact that they started with probably the dumbest, least believable cases against him just took away the credibility instantly and it made him a martyr.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: And if you're looking at, OK, what's going to change in this election between 16 to 20 to 24? It's going to be this new coalition of Republican voters that are further down the educational attainment scale, working class people of all colors.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And I think this is one of the key factors, these cases, these sham cases against Donald Trump.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: If you're not scared of the dude, go beat him at the ballot box. Don't use your courts and your Department of Justice.
--:-- John Bickley: And people who are working class voters of color, especially men, look at Donald Trump and say, that is the only guy who understands somebody like me and what it feels like to have the man against you, to have the government against you, to have the law against you.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: And I think that is the number one factor that is accelerating this change in who is the Republican base and who's the Democrat base.
--:-- Georgia Howe: You know, if I'm a Democrat, I'm going to be, I'm terrified right now because there's only so many progressive, high-minded, bleeding heart, highly educated white liberals out there and white progressives out there And that the party that they becoming
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Now, in your latest Battleground poll you found four distinct voter segments. Who are those four groups?
--:-- John Bickley: Yeah, that's a great question.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: And this is a really good use case of machine learning, where you can take a bunch of data and throw it in and let it find out what commonalities exist.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And so in those segments, we ended up with, and again, this was the computer picking this, about 41% of these congressional battleground voters, we would consider the Republican base.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: You know, they're highly attuned on border security, inflation, and economy. They really like Donald Trump. They hate Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.
--:-- John Bickley: So, I mean, what you would expect that segment, if you looked at that segment across all the questions that we asked, you would say, oh, that makes a lot of sense how those people respond.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: And then we found about 13% of voters that are independent. They're more moderate. You know, they are highly attuned on the inflation and economic issue and really not paying attention to the border at all.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And then the Democrat base was very uniquely split into two groups.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Now, albeit that base was bigger. So if you combine the two segments, it's 45% of voters compared to 41% of Republican-based voters.
--:-- John Bickley: So you can see how Republicans really have to work hard in elections to not just turn out their folks, but to do some persuasion.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: And so among this group of Democrats, you've got 22% of overall voters that we classified as inflation Democrats.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And they're leaning pretty heavily Democratic on the generic ballot, whether they prefer Republican or Democrat for Congress.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: But the number's a lot lower. I mean, I think it's like 83% of them are saying that compared to the, quote, threats to democracy Democrats.
--:-- John Bickley: These are those high-minded, bleeding-heart, highly educated white progressives. And that's 23% of all voters within congressional battleground states.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: And they are 100% for the Democratic candidate for Congress.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So this is where you can start to see that Republicans can put together a coalition of voters that they can go after these inflation-minded Democrats.
--:-- John Bickley: Where, you know, about a third of that group says that inflation and cost of living is their number one issue.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: And enough of them, I think it's like 16% or so, have a favorable opinion of Donald Trump.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And there's nobody in the Republican base that has a, you know, nobody that matters that has a favorable opinion of Joe Biden.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: And then you go look at the 13% of independents and you can start to see how Republicans, Donald Trump included, can cobble together a coalition of voters in a much easier way.
--:-- Georgia Howe: All right, last question. I know abortion was a huge issue in the midterm elections. Obviously, it came right on the heels of the Dobbs decision. Do you think there's still gas in that tank for Democrats to use this election? Or do you think the temperature's been turned down on that issue?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: My advice for Democrats is that they should only talk about abortion and absolutely nothing else.
--:-- John Bickley: And while they're doing that, we Republicans are going to talk about the things voters care about and then trounce them in a Ronald Reagan-style landslide.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: The reason that abortion mattered so much, and I hope listeners caught on that, was pretty tongue-in-cheek.
--:-- Georgia Howe: But the reason that abortion was so big in 22 is, one, the Dobbs decision happened, so it totally changed up the electoral calculus.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: But people who really care about abortion are highly educated folks.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And highly educated folks are more likely to turn out in midterms in special elections.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: So abortion can be a turnout tool for Democrats in non-presidential election years.
--:-- John Bickley: It's not an issue. To protect life is, you know, we've got to figure out as Republicans, what do working class people care about on the issue of abortion in life?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Because we have to figure out how to, in non-presidential years, turn those people out on the topic too.
--:-- Georgia Howe: But in a presidential year where the turnout's going to be sky high, abortion does not juice the turnout in IOTA.
--:-- John Bickley: So it does not help Democrats, which is why I hope that's all they talk about this election.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: All right. Well, Brent, thank you so much for coming on today.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Yeah, appreciate it.
--:-- John Bickley: That was Brent Buchanan, a pollster for The Signal Group, and this has been an extra edition of Morning Wire.
