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Nick Lane has some pretty wild ideas about the evolution of life.

He thinks early life was continuous with the spontaneous chemistry of undersea hydrothermal vents.

Nick’s story may be wrong, but I find it remarkable that with just that starting point, you can explain so much about why life is the way that it is — the things you’re supposed to just take as givens in biology class:

* Why are there two sexes? Why sex at all?

* Why are bacteria so simple despite being around for 4 billion years? Why is there so much shared structure between all eukaryotic cells despite the enormous morphological variety between animals, plants, fungi, and protists?

* Why did the endosymbiosis event that led to eukaryotes happen only once, and in the particular way that it did?

* Why is all life powered by proton gradients? Why does all life on Earth share not only the Krebs Cycle, but even the intermediate molecules like Acetyl-CoA?

His theory implies that early life is almost chemically inevitable (potentially blooming on hundreds of millions of planets in the Milky Way alone), and that the real bottleneck is the complex eukaryotic cell.

Watch on YouTube; listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

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* Gemini in Sheets lets you turn messy text into structured data. We used it to classify all our episodes by type and topic, no manual tagging required. If you’re a Google Workspace user, you can get started today at docs.google.com/spreadsheets/

* Labelbox has a massive network of domain experts (called Alignerrs) who help train AI models in a way that ensures they understand the world deeply, not superficially. These Alignerrs are true experts — one even tutored me in chemistry as I prepped for this episode. Learn more at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

* Lighthouse helps frontier technology companies like Cursor and Physical Intelligence navigate the U.S. immigration system and hire top talent from around the world. Lighthouse handles everything, maximizing the probability of visa approval while minimizing the work you have to do. Learn more at lighthousehq.com/employers

To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) – The singularity that unlocked complex life

(00:08:26) – Early life continuous with Earth's geochemistry

(00:23:36) – Eukaryotes are the great filter for intelligent life

(00:42:16) – Mitochondria are the reason we have sex

(01:08:12) – Are bioelectric fields linked to consciousness?

Ref: 868329

We begin the episode with the absolutely ingenious and surprising way in which Kepler discovered the laws of planetary motion.

People sometimes say that AI will make especially fast progress at scientific discovery because of tight verification loops.

But the story of how we discovered the shape of our solar system shows how the verification loop for correct ideas can be decades (or even millennia) long.

During this time, what we know today as the better theory can actually make worse predictions.

And the reasons it survives this epistemic hell is some mixture of judgment and heuristics that we don’t even understand well enough to actually articulate, much less codify into an RL loop. Hope you enjoy!

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

- Jane Street loves challenging my audience with different creative puzzles. One of my listeners, Shawn, solved Jane Street’s ResNet challenge and posted a great walk-through on X. If you want to try one of these puzzles yourself, there’s one live now at janestreet.com/dwarkesh.

- Labelbox can get you rubric-based evals, no matter your domain. These rubrics allow you to give your model feedback on all the dimensions you care about, so you can train how it thinks, not just what it thinks. Whatever you’re focused on—math, physics, finance, psychology or something else—Labelbox can help. Learn more at labelbox.com/dwarkesh.

- Mercury just released a new feature called Insights. Insights summarizes your money in and out, showing you your biggest transactions and calling out anything worth paying attention to. It’s a super low-friction way to stay on top of your business. Learn more at mercury.com/insights.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) – Kepler was a high temperature LLM

(00:11:44) – How would we know if there’s a new unifying concept within heaps of AI slop?

(00:26:10) – The deductive overhang

(00:30:31) – Selection bias in reported AI discoveries

(00:46:43) – AI makes papers richer and broader, but not deeper

(00:53:00) – If AI solves a problem, can humans get understanding out of it?

(00:59:20) – We need a semi-formal language for the way that scientists actually talk to each other

(01:09:48) – How Terry uses his time

(01:17:05) – Human-AI hybrids will dominate math for a lot longer

Mangroves are incredible survivors and adapters. They're also amazing at lessening the impact of tropical storms and climate change. And heck, they're cool looking. So jump into the brackish waters and have a listen to this classic episode all about these beauts.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is the final episode of the Sarah Paine lecture series, and it’s probably my favorite one. Sarah gives a “tour of the arguments” on what ultimately led to the Soviet Union’s collapse, diving into the role of the US, the Sino-Soviet border conflict, the oil bust, ethnic rebellions and even the Roman Catholic Church. As she points out, this is all particularly interesting as we find ourselves potentially at the beginning of another Cold War.

As we wrap up this lecture series, I want to take a moment to thank Sarah for doing this with me. It has been such a pleasure.

If you want more of her scholarship, I highly recommend checking out the books she’s written. You can find them here.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

* Labelbox can get you the training data you need, no matter the domain. Their Alignerr network includes the STEM PhDs and coding experts you’d expect, but it also has experienced cinematographers and talented voice actors to help train frontier video and audio models. Learn more at labelbox.com/dwarkesh.

* Sardine doesn’t just assess customer risk for banking & retail. Their AI risk management platform is also extremely good at detecting fraudulent job applications, which I’ve found useful for my own hiring process. If you need help with hiring risk—or any other type of fraud prevention—go to sardine.ai/dwarkesh.

* Gemini’s Nano Banana Pro helped us make many of the visuals in this episode. For example, we used it to turn dense tables into clear charts so that’d it be easier to quickly understand the trends that Sarah discusses. You can try Nano Banana Pro now in the Gemini app. Go to gemini.google.com.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) – Did Reagan single-handedly win the Cold War?

(00:15:53) – Eastern Bloc uprisings & oil crisis

(00:30:37) – Gorbachev’s mistakes

(00:37:33) – German unification and NATO expansion

(00:48:31) – The Gulf War and the Cold War endgame

(00:56:10) – How central planning survived so long

(01:14:46) – Sarah’s life in the USSR in 1988

Had Ada Palmer back on – this time to talk about Machiavelli, perhaps the most misunderstood thinker of all time.

Machiavelli cut his teeth as a high-level diplomat for Florence, a position from which he got to closely observe the most important rulers in Europe at the time, including the ones who were on the path to destroying his dearly beloved Florence.

In 1513 the Medici retook control of Florence and, wrongly suspecting Machiavelli of participating in a coup attempt, fired, tortured, and exiled him.

Machiavelli could have left exile and worked for any number of different principalities that would have been eager to make use of his talents.

Instead, he decided to rot in the countryside and compile his career’s lessons about power, politics, and human nature into a book he dedicated to the very man whose new regime had tortured and exiled him, Lorenzo di Piero de’ Medici.

But at least the Medici were in a position to use his insights to defend Florence. Machiavelli the patriot did not want any other hands to touch these books, because those hands, armed further with these lessons, might pose an existential danger to Florence.

The closest modern analogy, at least as Machiavelli would have seen it, would be Szilard’s letter warning FDR about the possibility of a nuclear fission bomb.

What were those insights? And how were they inspired by Machiavelli’s dangerous diplomatic missions all across Europe, and his extensive reading of antiquity? Watch this episode with Ada Palmer to find out!

By the way, Ada is launching a new podcast which I’m very excited about. The first season will be about Machiavelli - a perfect way to dive deeper into the topics we discussed in this episode. Subscribe at Beforecast’s website to be notified of the first episode, subscribe on YouTube, follow her on Patreon, and if you want even more Ada, check out her FixTheNews Podcast episode, and check out her books and more.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

* Cursor recently saved one of my podcast recordings. When a video file from a shoot came out corrupted, I pointed Cursor at it: it recovered the footage on its own, tracking down the right reference file from the file’s metadata and realigning the out-of-sync audio. My whole team now uses Cursor for everyday tasks, not just coding. Get started at cursor.com/dwarkesh

* Jane Street’s hiring process has been going viral on Twitter lately. The memes are pretty funny, but I wanted to see what their interviews were actually like. So I had Ricson, one of Jane Street’s ML researchers, walk me through a retired puzzle: he gave me an image dataset where 50% of the files had been corrupted – I had to figure out how to recover them. If you’re interested in these sorts of puzzles, you can find Jane Street’s open roles at janestreet.com/dwarkesh

* Crusoe is turning the AI datacenter buildout into an industrial process. At their massive Colorado factory, they assemble Spark units, modular datacenters with power, cooling, and fire suppression built in. They also manufacture specific components in-house to skip the longest lead times. Crusoe has experience running these Spark units on a range of energy sources, including solar and used EV batteries, ensuring they don’t get bottlenecked by grid availability. Learn more at crusoe.ai/dwarkesh

Timestamps

(00:00:00) – How Florence bargained with Cesare Borgia for survival

(00:15:08) – Machiavelli’s analytical innovations

(00:23:58) – Why popes became warlords

(00:36:13) – Why the common people demanded nepotism

(00:47:57) – Cesare Borgia brought terror to rulers and justice to the people

(00:57:55) – Art as a proxy for war

(01:06:41) – Florence, a city famous in hell

(01:15:57) – The Prince was a job application to Machiavelli’s torturers

(01:41:39) – During the Renaissance, original ideas had to be couched in antiquity

(01:50:44) – Why copyright began with the Inquisition

(02:02:12) – Machiavelli wasn’t Machiavellian

Renaissance history is so much wilder and weirder than you would have expected. Very fun chatting with Ada Palmer (historian, novelist, and composer based at the University of Chicago).

Some especially fascinating things I learned from the conversation and her excellent book, Inventing the Renaissance:

Not only did Gutenberg go bankrupt in the 1450s (after inventing the printing press), but so did the bank that foreclosed on him, and so did his apprentices. This is because paper was still very expensive, and so you had to make this big upfront CAPEX decision to print a batch of 300 copies of a book - say the Bible. But he’s in a small landlocked German town where only priests are allowed to read the Bible - so he sells maybe 7 copies. It’s only when this technology ends up in Venice, where you can hand 10 copies to each of 30 ship captains going to 30 different cities, that it starts taking off.

Speaking of which, the printing revolution wasn’t just one single discrete event, just as the computer revolution has been this whole century of going from mainframes -> personal computers -> phones -> social media, each with different and accelerating social impact. Books came first, but they’re slow to print, and made in small batches. The real revolution is pamphlets - much faster, much harder to censor. Pamphlet runners are how you can have Luther’s 95 Theses go from Wittenberg to London in 17 days.

So much other wild stuff from this episode. For example, did you know that the largest and best-funded experimental laboratory in 17th century Europe was very likely the Roman one run by inquisitors? Ada jokes that the Inquisition accidentally invented peer review. The focus of the Inquisition is really misunderstood - it was obsessed with catching dangerous new heretics like Lutherans and Calvinists - it only executed one person for doing science.

And this leads Ada to make an observation that I think is really wise: the authorities and censors are always worried about the exact wrong things given 20/20 hindsight. When Inquisition raids an underground bookshop during the French Enlightenment, they don’t mind the Rousseau, Voltaire, and Encyclopédie, but they lose their minds about some Jansenist treatises about the technical nature of the Trinity.

More broadly, a lesson for me from this episode is that it’s just really hard to shape history in the specific way that you want to impact things. One of the most famous medieval scholars is this guy Petrarch. He survives the Black Death in the 1340s, watches his friends die to plague and bandits, and says: our leaders are selfish and terrible, we need to raise them on the Roman classics so they’ll act like Cicero. So Europe pours money into finding ancient manuscripts, building libraries, and educating princes on classical virtues. Those princes grow up and fight bigger, nastier wars than ever before with new deadlier technology. And this, combined with greater urbanization and endemic plague, results in European life expectancy decreasing from 35 in the medieval period to 18 during the Renaissance (the period which we in retrospect think of as a golden age but which many people living through it thought of as the continuation of the dark ages that had persisted since the fall of Rome).

Anyways, the libraries Petrarch inspires stick around, the printing press makes them accessible to everyone, and 200 years later a generation of medical students is reading Lucretius and asking “what if there are atoms and that’s how diseases work?” which eventually leads to germ theory, vaccines, and a cure for the Black Death (Ada has longer more involved explanation of how cosplaying the Romans results through a series of many steps to the scientific revolution). Petrarch wanted to produce philosopher-kings that shared his values. Instead he created a world that doesn’t share his values at all but can cure the disease that destroyed his.

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

* Jane Street is still waiting on someone to solve their backdoor puzzle… They’re accepting submissions until April 1st and have set aside $50,000 for the best attempts. Separately, applications are live for Jane Street’s summer ML internships in NY, London, and Hong Kong. Go check all of this out at janestreet.com/dwarkesh.

* Labelbox can help ensure your agents don’t need to rely on overspecified prompts. They tailor real-world scenarios to whatever domain you’re focused on, and they make sure the data you train on rewards real understanding, not just instruction-following. Learn more at labelbox.com/dwarkesh

* Mercury’s personal accounts let you add users, issue cards, and customize permissions. This is super useful for sharing finances with a partner, a roommate… or even an OpenClaw agent. And, if you’re already a Mercury Business user, your personal account is free! See terms and conditions below, and learn more at mercury.com/personal-banking

Eligible Mercury Business users who apply for and maintain a Mercury Personal account may have their Mercury Personal subscription fee waived provided they remain a user on an active Mercury Business account in good standing. Standard Mercury Platform Subscription fees will apply if they no longer meet eligibility requirements, including but not limited to no longer being associated with an eligible Mercury Business account, or if the program is modified or terminated. Mercury may modify or discontinue this offering at any time and will provide notice as required by law. See Subscription Terms for full details.

* To sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) - How cosplaying Ancient Rome led to the Renaissance

(00:28:49) - How Florence’s weird republic worked

(00:38:13) - How the Medicis took over Florence

(00:58:12) - Why it was so hard for Gutenberg to make any money off the printing press

(01:17:34) - Why the industrial revolution didn’t happen in Italy

(01:23:02) - The Library of Alexandria isn’t where most ancient books were lost

(01:41:21) - The Inquisition accidentally invented peer review

Dylan Patel, founder of SemiAnalysis, provides a deep dive into the 3 big bottlenecks to scaling AI compute: logic, memory, and power.

And walks through the economics of labs, hyperscalers, foundries, and fab equipment manufacturers.

Learned a ton about every single level of the stack. Enjoy!

Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.

Sponsors

* Mercury has already saved me a bunch of time this tax season. Last year, I used Mercury to request W-9s from all the contractors I worked with. Then, when it came time to issue 1099s this year, I literally just clicked a button and Mercury sent them out. Learn more at mercury.com.

* Labelbox noticed that even when voice models appear to take interruptions in stride, their performance degrades. To figure out why, they built a new evaluation pipeline called EchoChain. EchoChain diagnoses voice models’ specific failure modes, letting you understand what your model needs to truly handle interruptions. Check it out at labelbox.com/dwarkesh.

* Jane Street is basically a research lab with a trading desk attached – and their infrastructure backs this up. They’ve got tens of thousands of GPUs, hundreds of thousands of CPU cores, and exabytes of storage. This is what it takes to find subtle signals hidden deep within noisy market data. If this sounds interesting, you can explore open positions at janestreet.com/dwarkesh.

Timestamps

(00:00:00) – Why an H100 is worth more today than 3 years ago

(00:24:52) – Nvidia secured TSMC allocation early; Google is getting squeezed

(00:34:34) – ASML will be the #1 constraint for AI compute scaling by 2030

(00:55:47) – Can't we just use TSMC's older fabs?

(01:05:37) – When will China outscale the West in semis?

(01:16:01) – The enormous incoming memory crunch

(01:42:34) – Scaling power in the US will not be a problem

(01:54:44) – Space GPUs aren't happening this decade

(02:14:07) – Why aren't more hedge funds making the AGI trade?

(02:18:30) – Will TSMC kick Apple out from N2?

(02:24:16) – Robots and Taiwan risk

New blackboard lecture with Reiner Pope: how do chips actually work - starting with basic logic gates, and working up to why GPUs, TPUs, FPGAs, and the human brain each look the way they do.

Reiner is CEO of MatX, a new chip startup (full disclosure - I’m an angel investor). He was previously at Google, where he worked on software efficiency, compilers, and TPU architecture.

Watch this one on YouTube so you can see the chalkboard. Read the transcript.

Sponsors

* Crusoe was one of only five GPU clouds that made the gold tier in SemiAnalysis' most recent ClusterMAX report. Gold-tier providers like Crusoe delivered 5-15% lower TCO than silver-tier clouds, even with identical GPU pricing. This is because optimizations like early fault detection and rapid node replacement don't necessarily show up in the sticker price, but still matter a ton in the real world. Learn more at crusoe.ai/dwarkesh

* Cursor is where I do most of my work—from reading research papers to visualizing technical concepts to coding up internal tools for the podcast. Most recently, I used it to build two different review interfaces for my essay contest, one that anonymizes submissions for scoring and another that lets me see applicants' essays next to their resumes and websites. Whatever you're working on, you should try doing it in Cursor. Get started at cursor.com/dwarkesh

* Jane Street let me ask Ron Minsky and Dan Pontecorvo, two senior Jane Streeters, a bunch of questions about how they use AI. We discussed everything from the types of models they're training to how they think about the future of trading to why they're more bullish than ever on hiring technical talent. You can watch the full conversation and learn more about their open positions at janestreet.com/dwarkesh

Timestamps

00:00:00 – Building a multiply-accumulate from logic gates

00:16:31 – Muxes and the cost of data movement

00:26:10 – How systolic arrays work

00:39:11 – Clock cycles and pipeline registers

00:51:51 – FPGAs vs ASICs

01:03:25 – Cache vs scratchpad

01:07:27 – Why CPU cores are much bigger than GPU cores

01:12:00 – Brains vs chips

01:15:33 – A GPU is just a bunch of tiny TPUs

I have a much better understanding of Sutton’s perspective now. I wanted to reflect on it a bit.

(00:00:00) - The steelman

(00:02:42) - TLDR of my current thoughts

(00:03:22) - Imitation learning is continuous with and complementary to RL

(00:08:26) - Continual learning

(00:10:31) - Concluding thoughts

President Trump released his strategy on national security, offering a glimpse into the administration’s evolving foreign policy. Bloomberg reports on how the document codifies a number of norm-shattering policies.

Netflix has agreed to acquire Warner Brothers. Los Angeles Times reporter Meg James details how the deal could upend the movie business in unprecedented ways.

The Supreme Court is weighing arguments today over whether Trump has the authority to to fire certain government regulators. The Washington Post’s Justin Jouvenal joins to discuss the decision’s ramifications.

Plus, the U.S. condemned the death of a Venezuelan opposition figure, why Trump is attacking a Democrat he just pardoned, and the dramatic unveiling of this year’s College Football Playoff bracket.

Today’s episode was hosted by Shumita Basu.