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--:-- John Bickley: Welcome to Morning Wire, I'm John Bickley, Editor-in-Chief of the Daily Wire, and I'm here with Georgia Howe. It's Monday, June 19th.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Good morning, John. Thanks for waking up with us.
--:-- John Bickley: I'm going to run for president. I'm going to run for your children and mine.
--:-- Georgia Howe: [laughs] Well, we'll have to see about that, John.
--:-- John Bickley: Amid a broadening GOP primary contest and with federal charges now filed against the GOP's leading candidate, new presidential polling reveals where voters stand.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And after Congress avoided defaulting on our national debt, a new battle over congressional spending is beginning to take form.
--:-- John Bickley: How are Republicans proposing to make cuts? And why do Democrats say it could cause a government shutdown?
--:-- Georgia Howe: Thanks for waking up with Morning Wire. Stay tuned. We have the news you need to know.
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--:-- John Bickley: On Sunday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a highly anticipated visit to Beijing, meeting with China's foreign minister amid strained relations between the two superpowers.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Here with more on the high-stakes meeting and what it means for U.S.-China relations is Daily Wire senior editor Cabot Phillips.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah, it's a big deal anytime high-ranking officials from China and the U.S. agree to sit down, but this meeting was especially important as it marked the first time that a cabinet-level official has visited China since 2019.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Paint the scene for us.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah, it's a big deal anytime high-ranking officials from China and the U.S. agree to sit down, but this meeting was especially important as it marked the first time that a cabinet-level official has visited China since 2019. The two sides met for around seven hours in a series of large and then smaller meetings, capped off with a formal dinner, which the State Department called, quote, direct and productive.
--:-- Georgia Howe: According to reports, the two sides discussed a range of geopolitical and economic topics, including expanding the number of commercial flights between the two countries, increasing trade, and encouraging the exchange of more students and business people.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: After the meeting, China's foreign minister, Qin Gong, announced that he'd agreed to come to the U.S. for the next round of talks.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And remember, this visit was initially scheduled for back in February, but was postponed after the Chinese flew a spy balloon over U.S. airspace in that blatant move that really frayed the relationship.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Right, that prompted that abrupt cancellation. Yes. And in the months since, China has rebuffed a number of invitations for a sit-down. So the fact this one went off without a hitch is a positive sign of diplomatic progress.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Why did the meeting happen now? What went into the timing?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Well, there seem to be two main goals from a Chinese perspective. First, officials in Beijing have been clear that they want President Xi Jinping to attend an upcoming summit of Asia-Pacific leaders that will be held in the U.S. and San Francisco this November.
--:-- Georgia Howe: By opening up that relationship this month, they sort of paved the way for that visit to happen.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And there are reports that Xi could meet with Biden when he does come. But more importantly, the Chinese have a clear economic incentive to open up relations with the U.S.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Throughout the last year, the Biden administration has urged American allies, including Japan, South Korea, and the Netherlands, to implement sanctions against Chinese companies and restrict exports of high-tech chips and other sensitive technology.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: To this point, those countries have been on the fence about pulling out of the Chinese market, though, and Beijing is trying to discourage them from doing so by showing that they're willing to cooperate with the U.S. and can be open to negotiations.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And what about from a U.S. perspective? Why hold this meeting at this particular moment?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So the Biden administration has been clear that they want to cool military tensions. Remember since the U shot down that spy balloon we seen a number of cases where Chinese military planes and ships have antagonized American craft and both sides have stepped up the war of words in response.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Despite the tough talk, though, Biden has been clear that he wants to avoid conflict at all costs.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And the president is also under pressure from the business community. Many business leaders have been furious at the administration's restrictions on certain tech exports, and they want to see a more open economic relationship between the two countries.
--:-- Georgia Howe: On that note, Secretary Blinken will be meeting this month with business leaders to hear their concerns and explain Biden's position.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And as always, there's a political side here as well. If President Biden can score some sort of diplomatic agreement that leads to friendlier relations with our largest adversary, it could be useful in his upcoming re-election campaign.
--:-- Georgia Howe: This all comes amid new concerns over China's development and implementation of AI.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah, this is interesting. So a big part of the Biden administration crackdown on U.S. companies doing business with China is because of worries over how that technology, especially AI, could be used by the Chinese military.
--:-- Georgia Howe: They've been clear that maintaining a technological advantage over China is more important than maintaining strong economic ties.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: On that front, in the coming months, Biden is expected to introduce an executive order that will block U.S. private equity and venture capital from being invested in Chinese tech companies, mainly to prevent US companies from inadvertently aiding the Chinese military in their quest to develop new tech.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Because the Chinese Communist Party essentially controls all businesses in the country, any technology sold to a Chinese company can and will be used by the military.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So the White House is in a tough spot where they want to encourage economic growth and allow exports. Remember, China is our largest trading partner. But simultaneously, they want to ensure that trade doesn't strengthen the Chinese military.
--:-- Georgia Howe: It's a precarious balancing act to watch in the coming months.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah, it is.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Cabot, thanks for reporting.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Anytime.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Coming up, how Americans are viewing the presidential candidates amid historic federal charges and looming investigations.
--:-- John Bickley: With the field of candidates for the 2024 presidential election all but filled in, new polling reveals where we stand as the race begins in earnest.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Thus far, the numbers have featured a substantial lead for Donald Trump in the Republican contest and a surprisingly strong showing by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on the Democrat side.
--:-- John Bickley: Here to help us set the table is Daily Wire contributor David Marcus.
--:-- David Marcus: Morning.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So David, where do we stand at this somewhat unprecedented point in campaigning?
--:-- David Marcus: Yeah, it's a whole new ballgame with one of the leading candidates facing federal charges. So as usual, how you perceive how things are shaping up partly depends on the polls that you look at.
--:-- Georgia Howe: A very recent Harvard-Harris poll shows a pretty shocking 59 to 14 point lead for Trump over Ron DeSantis. That's significantly larger than we've seen before.
--:-- David Marcus: But the averages have been pretty stubborn in the neighborhood of a 30 point Trump lead. And that's been true even after DeSantis' announcement and Trump's second indictment.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Mike Pence is generally third in the high single digits.
--:-- David Marcus: On the Democrat side, RFK Jr. is still in the 15 to 20 percent range. And it's starting to look like that might stick, provided that is that a more accomplished Democrat doesn't dive in.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Right. And of course, it's obviously very early. There hasn't even been a single debate at this point.
--:-- David Marcus: Now, looking at the GOP numbers, where is the race right now? And do you think DeSantis can actually tighten it up?
--:-- Georgia Howe: The most important dynamic on the Republican side is that as it stands now Trump can win pretty easily without converting a single current DeSantis voter whereas the Florida governor needs about half of current Trump supporters.
--:-- David Marcus: You hear pundits saying that DeSantis needs to punch back harder at Trump, but this is the problem. If he turns off too many Trump fans, he risks creating a gap that he can't close.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I think this is why this weekend you saw him tending bar with veterans at a VFW.
--:-- David Marcus: His campaign wants to make this about him and craft his image as an alternative to Trump, hoping that he can start to peel away at some of the big lead for the former president.
--:-- Georgia Howe: But he's also taking subtle shots about getting away from, quote, the culture of losing.
--:-- David Marcus: Now, where does that leave Trump? He's had obviously more than just campaigning to do over the past few days. He's facing now a second indictment.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Right. Right now, I think the attitude in Trump world is understandably, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.
--:-- David Marcus: The attacks on DeSantis have mellowed a bit. Mostly now they're just nicknames and mocking his poll numbers.
--:-- Georgia Howe: But clearly, Trump sees these indictments as a positive for his campaign.
--:-- David Marcus: And not for nothing, the numbers seem to bear it out.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Now, looking at the other side, RFK Jr. is still hanging around.
--:-- David Marcus: What does his polling look like right now? And is his candidacy actually getting serious?
--:-- Georgia Howe: He is hanging around, even as his more controversial views on vaccines and other issues are getting more play.
--:-- David Marcus: A lot of Democrats thought that once that happened, his numbers would decline, but they haven't.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And I think there's a real question as to whether other Democrats and by other Democrats, I mean, California Governor Gavin Newsom might be eyeing these polls with some sparkle in their eyes and hunger in the belly that fancy restaurants like French Laundry can't satiate.
--:-- David Marcus: Now, finally, let's talk about Biden's approval numbers. They continue to slide.
--:-- Georgia Howe: How low have they gotten at this point? And speaking of Newsom, do you think Democrats are getting worried?
--:-- David Marcus: Biden's numbers are historically awful. He got no bounce from the debt ceiling deal. There's really no issue where the American people trust him. He's double digits underwater on the economy, foreign policy, immigration, direction of the economy. It's a mess.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And of course, Democrats are worried. Let's not forget that once a week, some new damning piece of evidence regarding bribery or corruption is coming out of the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.
--:-- David Marcus: It's hard not to think about when the last possible moment that Biden could pull out is, because there are still a lot of questions on multiple fronts about whether he can see this campaign now.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Right. Well, David, thanks so much for coming on today.
--:-- David Marcus: Thanks for having me.
--:-- Georgia Howe: After having staved off a projected default on the U.S. government debt through a deal with President Biden to raise the debt ceiling, House Republicans are now reportedly working to cut federal spending through appropriations committees.
--:-- John Bickley: And Democrats are warning that it could lead to a government shutdown.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Here to discuss is Brandon Arnold, Executive Vice President of the National Taxpayers Union.
--:-- Brandon Arnold: Thanks for joining us.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So what is happening now between Democrats and Republicans with this battle over spending?
--:-- Brandon Arnold: Yeah, I mean, there's a big fight over how much the government should spend next year. And we all know that they've spent far too much over the past few years.
--:-- Georgia Howe: The pandemic caused the government to spend trillions and trillions of dollars.
--:-- Brandon Arnold: And now Republicans are really putting their foot down. And the Freedom Caucus and the more conservative faction of the House Republicans in particular are saying enough is enough And they refusing to abide by even the deal that was struck a couple weeks ago in the Fiscal Responsibility Act and demanding larger spending cuts Of course the Democrats aren playing along this time
--:-- Georgia Howe: So in the debt limit deal, the Fiscal Responsibility Act, the spending limits were set at 2024 levels. But now Kevin McCarthy is instructing Republicans to spend less. What is his rationale?
--:-- Brandon Arnold: Yeah, basically, he has such a narrow majority in the House of Representatives, he can only afford to lose five votes. And far more than five members of his conference said, we're not going to pass bills at this level.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So they had to get back to square one. They had to recalculate what the conference was willing to pass.
--:-- Brandon Arnold: And the Appropriations Committee and leadership and the Freedom Caucus, they all agreed that they could pass bills if they reduced that top line spending number by more than $100 billion. So that is what they've set out to do.
--:-- Georgia Howe: How much money are we actually talking about here?
--:-- Brandon Arnold: For 2024, the defense cap was set at $886 billion, which is significantly more than the non-defense cap, $704 billion. So you're looking at about just under $1.6 trillion this year.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So, you know, we are looking at reducing spending or flatlining spending. I think the fight has just really begun here.
--:-- Brandon Arnold: And these numbers are going to in all likelihood change because of this negotiated process here, which has become extraordinarily divisive.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So I think it's likely the House will pass bills that are lower than this agreed-upon number.
--:-- Brandon Arnold: And then the Senate has been pretty inactive, to put it euphemistically, over the past several months. We'll see if they're able to actually pass any kind of legislation through the appropriations process.
--:-- Georgia Howe: But there's zero willingness on the part of Patty Murray, who chairs the Senate Appropriations Committee, to go even a nickel below what the Fiscal Responsibility Act calls for.
--:-- Brandon Arnold: Now, even with the raising of the debt limit, as of right now, there are about 100 days of government funding left.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Do you expect Congress to fund the government or should we brace for a potential shutdown this fall?
--:-- Brandon Arnold: I think a shutdown is possible. The first inflection point would be the end of September. That's the end of the fiscal year. If they haven't reached some sort of deal, either final appropriations bills, which seems unlikely at this point, or pass a continuing resolution, then we would encounter a government shutdown.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I think a continuing resolution, all that does is basically say we're going to continue to fund the government at current levels for a certain period of time.
--:-- Brandon Arnold: I think that's quite likely. But the next inflection point is set by the Fiscal Responsibility Act, and that is January 1, 2024.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Because if we're still operating under a continuing resolution at that point, then there's a 1% across the board cut to discretionary spending, something that I don't think Republicans or Democrats really want to see, because that could affect both the domestic programs that Democrats like, as well as the defense programs that Republicans tend to like.
--:-- Brandon Arnold: Notable that even just a 1% cut is a no-go for both sides.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Brandon, thanks for joining us.
--:-- Brandon Arnold: Anytime. Thank you.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That was Brandon Arnold of the National Taxpayers Union. That's all the time we've got this morning.
--:-- John Bickley: Thanks for waking up with us. We'll be back later this afternoon with more news you need to know.
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--:-- Georgia Howe: And don't forget to check out our sponsors. Black Rifle Coffee: Get 10% off your first order or Coffee Club subscription with code WIRE: https://www.blackriflecoffee.com/
--:-- John Bickley: American Home Shield: Save $50 when you join American Home Shield. Visit http://www.ahs.com/WIRE
--:-- Georgia Howe: Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
