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--:-- John Bickley: Hello and welcome to ElectionWire. I'm John Bickley, Daily Wire editor-in-chief, and I'm joined by senior editor Cabot Phillips.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Thanks for having me, John.
--:-- John Bickley: By every single metric we have, Republicans are in a better spot now than they were even just a week ago. The winds are certainly changing. Now, we've seen anecdotal evidence over the last month of that shift taking place. But it's now impossible to deny if you look at all the hard data at the statewide and the national level, Republicans are clearly gaining ground.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: The main reason for that is the consistent state of the economy. It's not getting any better. In many areas, it's actually getting worse. And to kind of give you an example of what that looks like and how specifically that's causing independent voters to break late towards the right. The left-leaning Navigator, for example, had a 20-point jump in the last month among independent voters saying that they are more concerned now about the economy and gas prices. 20 points. 20 points in a month. That specifically is helping Republicans.
--:-- John Bickley: We saw the Cook Political Report, which in the past has kind of exaggerated Democrat support in polling when you see the final numbers. Even they published a new piece this week saying that Republicans might end up not losing a single incumbent Senate seat or a single governorship. So you're starting to see kind of this shift take place in the mainstream media as well, where they're starting to temper expectations for Democrats, as we see more and more hard data that Republicans are gaining ground.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: All right, so let's jump right into these debates. A big debate night Tuesday night. A lot of candidates facing off in some key races. We'll start with the one that everyone's been waiting for, though, and that's in Pennsylvania between John Fetterman, Mehmet Oz.
--:-- John Bickley: Really a debate like we've never seen before. Tell us about this.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: That is not overstating it. We really haven't seen a situation like this where, First off, there were questions if it would even happen in the first place. Fetterman suffered that stroke back before the primary. His campaign team has really kept him off the trail. They've kept his appearances very limited. There was a lot of argument over whether this debate would happen.
--:-- John Bickley: Fetterman faced a lot of mounting pressure of his team saying, you've got to get out there, you've got to make your closing pitch. And within just a few minutes, it was pretty obvious why they were trying to keep this debate from happening. Fetterman had clear signs of that stroke. He had numerous moments where he just blanked and wasn't able to finish an answer. Throughout the night, he was clearly having problems processing the questions given to him.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And you can see from some of these clips just how difficult at times it was to watch. It ever got knocked down. They had to get back up again. You know, I'm also fighting for any forgotten community all across Pennsylvania. They ever got knocked down. It had to be made to get back up.
--:-- John Bickley: I've made my entire career dedicating to those kinds of pursuits. I started as a GED instructor back in Braddock over 20 years ago because I believe it's about serving Pennsylvania, not about using Pennsylvania for their own interests as well.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: To me, careers are refilled by your underlying values. and my values have always been about fighting for forgotten communities all across Pennsylvania.
--:-- John Bickley: All right, so Fetterman's closing statement there in a really halting, kind of difficult to watch. We saw some other moments too.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah, and it's worth pointing out also that was kind of the tone all night. That was actually at times one of the more coherent messages we heard. The other big moment that was going viral throughout the evening was on the issue of fracking.
--:-- John Bickley: Keep in mind, the issue of fracking in Pennsylvania is incredibly important for a lot of voters there. Fetterman appeared to flip-flop saying that he actually supported fracking after earlier in his career, throughout his career, actually saying that he wanted to see it done away with.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: This moment had a lot of Pennsylvania voters watching. Clarify something. You're saying tonight that you support fracking, that you've always supported fracking, but there is that 2018 interview that you said, quote, I don't support fracking at all.
--:-- John Bickley: So how do you square the two?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Oh, I do support fracking and I don't, I don't, I support fracking and I stand and I do support fracking.
--:-- John Bickley: So another answer there, kind of difficult to understand what he's saying and definitely a flip-flop from some of his past positions.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: But there were moments that Fetterman's team viewed as a victory for their campaign. There was one particular answer that Dr. Oz gave on abortion that's, again, had a lot of people talking.
--:-- John Bickley: Dr. Oz seemed to imply that politicians should be also in the decision-making process for women when it comes to getting an abortion.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Watch that moment. I want women, doctors, local political leaders, letting the democracy that's always allowed our nation to thrive, to put the best ideas forward so states can decide for themselves
--:-- John Bickley: That one line in there about local politicians being involved in the conversation about abortion with women and their doctors that by the next day Democrats had already put into political ads They spent a million dollars on Pennsylvania 24 hours after trying to say, look, Dr. Oz thinks that politicians should have a say in women's health care decisions.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Oz's team saying, no, you're misconstruing what he actually meant there. But regardless, immediately after this debate, it was viewed by virtually everyone as a clear win for Dr. Oz.
--:-- John Bickley: There was one tracking poll after where 82% of viewers said that Dr. Oz came out the clear winner. And another interesting element here are the betting markets.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: It kind of helped give you a feel for how, you know, it's sometimes even more accurate than polls, but give you a feel for where the money is going. Coming into the summer, Fetterman was a 2-1 favorite over Oz. Coming into the debate, it had narrowed. It was about 50-50. It was even odds. Within the first 10 minutes of the debate going on, the odds for Dr. Oz shot up. He ended the debate a 2-1 favorite after being a 2-1 underdog at the start of the summer.
--:-- John Bickley: A complete reversal. So all the money now in those markets is going towards Oz after that debate.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So let's move now to New York, where Republican Lee Zeldin was facing off against Governor Kathy Hochul. Another debate that got a lot of attention.
--:-- John Bickley: There was a couple of key moments there. Tell us about that.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Well, this is another race that no one expected to be close coming out of the summer. Hochul had a gigantic lead over Zeldin. the only reason that Zeldin has pulled within low single digits right now is because of crime.
--:-- John Bickley: We know for a fact Republicans are having huge success on that issue. And there was a moment during the debate where Zeldin continued bringing up crime, and Hochul challenged him, actually, on the issue of crime, saying, why are you bringing this up so much?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Watch. They're not being represented. From this governor, who still, to this moment, we're halfway through the debate, She still hasn't talked about locking up anyone committing any crimes.
--:-- John Bickley: Okay. Anyone who commits a crime under our laws, especially with the change they made to bail, has consequences. I don't know why that's so important to you.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: That line, I don't know why that's so important to you referring to crime, that in the 24 hours afterwards was plastered all over ads online and newspapers.
--:-- John Bickley: That was the line of the debate. And really, that's been the line of the campaign so far.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Keep in mind, these are the kinds of moments that can be a turning point for a race, especially a race like this, where all the momentum is clearly with Zeldin.
--:-- John Bickley: That can kind of push him over the edge with a lot of voters, especially in a state like New York that's been ravaged by violent crime.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Another big moment that was getting a lot of attention was when Zeldin responded to Hochul. She was saying that crime had only to do with guns, and if you could just get the guns off the street, it would fix crime.
--:-- John Bickley: Zeldin wasn't having it. Listen. It's about getting the guns off the streets. That's the first start. We have more to do, but I'm the one to do it.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Did you want to respond? Yeah, of course. Unfortunately, Kathy Hochul believes that the only crimes that are being committed are these crimes with guns.
--:-- John Bickley: And you have people who are afraid of being pushed in front of oncoming subway cars. They're being stabbed, beaten to death on the street with hammers.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Go talk to the Asian-American community and how it's impacted them with the loss of lives. Jewish people targeted with raw, violent anti-Semitism on our streets. It just happened yet again.
--:-- John Bickley: We need to be talking about all of these other crimes, but instead, Kathy Hochul's too busy patting herself on the back.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Job well done. No, actually, right now there should be a special session. The state legislature should come back and they should overhaul Castles Pail and these other pro-criminal laws with zero tolerance.
--:-- John Bickley: But they're saying, elect me. She says, elect me, and then you'll find out where maybe I'll stand on this issue in January.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Now, the Michigan governor's race is starting to get close. More people watch this debate, I think, than probably plan to because of the polling we've seen.
--:-- John Bickley: What happened there?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Well, you bring up the discrepancy in polling from over the summer, where the incoming Gretchen Whitmer, the Democrat, was up 15 points at sometimes 18-1 poll. Now it's tightened. Some polls have it still a five or six-point lead for Whitmer. Others have it incredibly close in a statistical tie.
--:-- John Bickley: One thing that stuck out from this debate was how Tudor Dixon, the Republican, was offering her message on abortion.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: We've seen some Republican candidates on the defensive because they feel like that's been a winning issue for Democrats. Tudor Dixon came out on the offensive when it came to abortion.
--:-- John Bickley: Have a listen. The governor has the most radical opinion of abortion. She was asked twice in the last debate if she had any limits on abortion. She refused to answer because she has no limits on abortion.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So when she calls me extreme, the truth is that there's no more extreme position than Governor Whitmer's on abortion.
--:-- John Bickley: All right, so we had the candidates talk about a lot of issues, but the candidates also brought up a name in a very prominent way over and over again. The Republicans did, at least. Joe Biden.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Tell us about that.
--:-- John Bickley: Well, it's a name that's not even on the ballot, but make no mistake about it, Joe Biden is on the ballot this year. Republicans were insistent on reminding voters. Essentially, their message was, ex-candidate, in this case the Democrat candidate, voting for him or voting for her is just like voting for Joe Biden.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: That's what they were trying to do. Many candidates were bringing up if there was a Senate race saying this candidate voted this percentage of the time with Biden's agenda.
--:-- John Bickley: Many candidates were pointing out this candidate is lockstep with Joe Biden.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So the key message from Republicans was trying to associate Democrats with Joe Biden.
--:-- John Bickley: So let's get to some of those states. We want to look now at the latest polling from key battleground races that will decide things in November.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Well what we looking at is more good news for Republicans We start with the two Senate races where Republicans have really started to pull ahead after a summer where things got uncomfortably tight for them We go to Ohio first where J Vance is now ahead by four points
--:-- John Bickley: Keep in mind this race was going back and forth with Democrat Tim Ryan all summer. It appeared like a true toss-up. You can sort of view Ohio right now as more of a leans Republican as opposed to a traditional toss-up.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: That's the same situation out in Wisconsin, where incumbent Senator Ron Johnson had been facing an unexpectedly tight race from Democrat challenger Mandela Barnes.
--:-- John Bickley: There were a number of polls over the summer and even into the early fall where Barnes was ahead by one to two, even three points. But the latest polling has Ron Johnson now with a five-point lead.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: In every poll you look at, it's very clear right now that Ron Johnson, the incumbent Republican, is in the driver's seat in Wisconsin.
--:-- John Bickley: So in those two states, Republicans are kind of breathing a little easier because those are going to be vital states for them to pick up if they're going to get to 51.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: We'll head out west now to Arizona, where it is more of a traditional toss-up race. Now, that's still good news for Republicans because early on in the summer, it was a lean Democrat or even likely Democrat race there with the incumbent Mark Kelly.
--:-- John Bickley: He had a clear fundraising advantage. He had a clear name recognition advantage. But right now, Blake Masters is gaining ground and gaining ground fast.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Some polls have it all tied up. Other polls, Outrafalger latest has him within two points. All the momentum right now lies with Republicans in Arizona.
--:-- John Bickley: And speaking of Republicans there, it's important to look at another Republican race, the governor's race, where Carrie Lake is pulling ahead from the Democrat Katie Hobbs.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: She is now up convincingly anywhere from four to even 11 points in some polls. And that is having sort of a coattail effect where Blake Masters is benefiting from the popularity of Lake.
--:-- John Bickley: And a lot of Republicans are saying, hey, if Carrie Lake wins by six to 10 points, she's got to help down the ballot with someone like Blake Masters, who may not be as popular with the Republican base right now.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So Republicans, they're very confident. And Carrie Lake, for her part, is doing everything she can to help Masters. Every single event she has, she's shouting him out, telling her audience, go vote for Blake Masters.
--:-- John Bickley: We're seeing campaign signs across the state that say, vote Blake and vote Lake. We're not seeing that type of unity with the Democrats. Hobbs in the governor's race and Mark Kelly in the Democrat Senate race.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: We're not seeing them campaign together. We're not seeing them cut ads together. So clearly more unity on the Republican side in Arizona. That is a big benefit in a race this close.
--:-- John Bickley: Do not ignore how much of an impact Carrie Lake could have on the Senate race there.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Going up now to Oregon, another governor's race that people weren't expecting to be as close. But there could be a Republican governor in Oregon come November for the first time in 40 years.
--:-- John Bickley: That's the longest drought that we've seen in the entire country. But one thing that we're seeing is things are getting tighter between the Democrat and Republican candidates.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: As the independent candidate, Betsy Johnson, who had been around 20% in most polls. She's now dropped down to about 10% to 12%.
--:-- John Bickley: And most of her supporters have now gone to the Democrat Tina Kotick.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So Christine Drazen is now up by 1.2 points in some other polls. It's very close. She does still have the lead, but Democrats are closing fast.
--:-- John Bickley: So now the final question remains, how much support does Betsy Johnson keep up until election day? And if more of her supporters drop off, do they go to the Democrats or do they simply not vote.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So keep an eye on Oregon. One other interesting nugget there, Nike founder Phil Knight has now donated another $1.5 million to the Republican Christine Drazen, bringing his total to $3 million in the state.
--:-- John Bickley: He wants Republicans, or at least not Democrats, in control of the state where Nike's headquarters are.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And then finally, we go to Michigan, where the governor's race there between Republican Tudor Dixon and Democrat Gretchen Whitmer.
--:-- John Bickley: The incumbent is, again, unexpectedly close. Some of the latest polls have Whitmer up six points, but others, like our partners at Trafalgar, have it as a statistical tie.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Regardless of how you look at it, the clear advantage right now, or clear momentum, I should say, is going for Tudor Dixon, something you'd expect to see continue after that strong debate performance that she had.
--:-- John Bickley: But keep an eye on Michigan. There could be a red wave coming to Michigan, to Oregon, to some states that we weren't really expecting to see.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: But good news for Republicans right now, they've got the momentum.
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--:-- John Bickley: Joining us now to release another exclusive poll is Robert Cahaly, founder of Trafalgar Group, one of the most trusted pollsters in the industry.
--:-- Robert Cahaly: Thanks for having me, John.
--:-- John Bickley: This week you polled the voters of Georgia, where we have Democrat Senator Raphael Warnock, that's the incumbent, being challenged by Republican Herschel Walker.
--:-- Robert Cahaly: This is a really incredible shift. What did you find?
--:-- John Bickley: So we found that Walker is now up by two, where he was down by two at the last one at 49 to 47.
--:-- Robert Cahaly: And what's interesting is the other one happened all before the debate. And the other two polls at the same time, Emerson and Insider Advantage, both found 2% and 3% respectfully, where they were all of us together at an average of just over 2% down.
--:-- John Bickley: And so this is a major shift from the debate. There was one immediately following the debate that had the bed even.
--:-- Robert Cahaly: And this is the first advantage for Walker. But it seems to be all based on the debate and the shifting of things that happened after the debate where the Warnock was kind of put on the spot about the, you know, quote unquote slumlord accusations.
--:-- John Bickley: And that he and the church owned a property that was evicting people for under $100 while the church was paying him a $7,000 housing bonus.
--:-- Robert Cahaly: And so it really kind of shifted things the debate performance Herschel kind of held his own in a way that no one really expected him to Right You know going into that Herschel Walker there's a lot of questions about how he would hold up in the debate.
--:-- John Bickley: And I think a lot of people were impressed. And you saw a lot of the viral moments from that.
--:-- Robert Cahaly: Were Herschel Walker responding? So it was actually focused on a positive moment for Walker.
--:-- John Bickley: And I think the perception there is that he did win or at least come out sort of even in that debate.
--:-- Robert Cahaly: And that's exactly right, because a lot of people who didn't see the debate only saw what you just said, kind of those viral moments from it. And that is their, you know, how they feel about the entire debate.
--:-- John Bickley: And some of his answers constantly, the way he dealt with the pro-life question and talked about abortions in the city of Atlanta, the way he constantly tied things back to Biden.
--:-- Robert Cahaly: By my count, Walker referred to Biden 37 times. And tying Warnock to Biden is the way to win the election. I think I've said that from the very beginning.
--:-- John Bickley: Robert, you mentioned Walker is at 49%. That's an important number because of the quirk in Georgia where a candidate must get to 50% to avoid a runoff.
--:-- Robert Cahaly: Do you think that either of these candidates is in a position where they'll be able to get to that 50 mark?
--:-- John Bickley: Absolutely. Walker's 49%. is essentially, you know, 48.9 rounded up to 49. So that's 1.1 away from 50 and it's 50% plus one. So that's not a very hard hill to climb at this point.
--:-- Robert Cahaly: So it's completely possible that Walker can take this momentum and turn it into a possible victory without a runoff.
--:-- John Bickley: Let's move to the governor's race where we have Democrat Stacey Abrams challenging incumbent Republican Governor Brian Kemp.
--:-- Robert Cahaly: Kemp's lead seems to be holding, correct?
--:-- John Bickley: Yeah, according to our numbers, this seven-point area has been where Kemp's been for a while.
--:-- Robert Cahaly: I really continue to be shocked by how bad the campaign that Abrams is running. I mean, I personally have always thought she was very, very clever and one of the smartest people in the political space in Georgia.
--:-- John Bickley: So it really is surprising to me some of the missteps that she's made as a candidate.
--:-- Robert Cahaly: But interestingly, when you look at when you kind of dig into these numbers, is that both Kemp and Herschel are over 20 percent of the black vote.
--:-- John Bickley: And that is just just earth shattering this point, because we also know that a lot of those African-American voters tend to be a little hesitant to say they're voting for Republicans.
--:-- Robert Cahaly: So if this 20 percent who will say so and Herschel is a little higher at 23, I think that vote could be even stronger.
--:-- John Bickley: But it's just devastating for Abrams that she could have that kind of percentage happening.
--:-- Robert Cahaly: Abrams seems to be having a bad news cycle, too, with a report that her campaign manager collected millions of dollars from Abrams voting rights organization.
--:-- John Bickley: Are you seeing any movement on that front?
--:-- Robert Cahaly: You know, that's that's one of those stories that's been reported a lot in conservative media, but it really hasn't made the mainstream.
--:-- John Bickley: There's a mainstream wall, especially that circles the city of Atlanta when it comes to negative press on Warnock or Abrams.
--:-- Robert Cahaly: And they just can't get over that wall outside of some conservative news outlets.
--:-- John Bickley: So, no, I really don't see it having that big of an impact at this point.
--:-- Robert Cahaly: And we're in a silly season to the point where any accusation against either candidate is seen with the suspicion that accusations in late October and November automatically come with.
--:-- John Bickley: Well, Robert, we just have two weeks to go. We're going to have another poll next week that we unveil on this show.
--:-- Robert Cahaly: Great to have you back on. Thanks for joining us.
--:-- John Bickley: Absolutely. Thanks.
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--:-- John Bickley: Every week on Election Wire, we showcase the voices of voters across the country. Here's what Americans are concerned about today.
--:-- [Audio clips of voters speaking]
--:-- John Bickley: I'd say inflation. Cost of living versus wage. wage versus cost of living? Probably the economy.
--:-- [Audio clips of voters speaking]
--:-- John Bickley: When it came down to the vaccine mandates, part of my family is vaccinated, part of us is not, but I'm just like, people need to have a right to choose.
--:-- [Audio clips of voters speaking]
--:-- John Bickley: The homeless issue, again, Fresno's not huge, but anytime you go towards LA or San Francisco, even in Fresno, we watch it creep up farther and farther into more affluent neighborhoods.
--:-- [Audio clips of voters speaking]
--:-- John Bickley: It's been real tough to deal with. And I didn't want to have my child get the vaccine as a five-year-old. Luckily, the parents spoke up and we voted it out and we got the school district to not do that.
--:-- [Audio clips of voters speaking]
--:-- John Bickley: Same thing with the masks. My daughter was the only child in the entire kindergarten in her school with a mask exemption.
--:-- [Audio clips of voters speaking]
--:-- John Bickley: I mean, nobody's going to teach my child about sex or, you know, I don't care if it's same sex or heterosexual sex. It's sex. I can teach my kid that at home.
--:-- [Audio clips of voters speaking]
--:-- John Bickley: Look at the unemployment rate. Look at the track. look at the jobs that, the job availability. Always good to hear directly from voters.
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--:-- John Bickley: That's it for this episode of Election Wire. We'll be back next week with all the election news you need to know.
