--:-- John Bickley: The Honorable Jim Jordan of the state of Ohio has received 200 votes. The Honorable Hakeem Jeffries of the state of New York has received 212 votes. Still no Speaker of the House after Jim Jordan fails to win over several GOP holdouts. We discuss the latest on the bruising battle for House Speaker.
--:-- [Discussion continues, but no clear speaker is identified]
--:-- John Bickley: I'm Daily Wire Editor-in-Chief John Bickley with Georgia Howe. It's Wednesday, October 18th, and this is Morning Wire.
--:-- Georgia Howe: President Biden makes a wartime trek to Israel, trying to balance U.S. support for the war while preventing a larger conflict. And a seismic shift in Poland, as the conservative Law and Justice Party doesn't win enough votes to remain in power.
--:-- John Bickley: Thanks for waking up with Morning Wire. Stay tuned. We have the news you need to know.
--:-- [Discussion continues, but no clear speaker is identified]
--:-- John Bickley: Jim Jordan's ambition to be Speaker of the House of Representatives hit a serious snag on Tuesday as he failed to gain the 217 votes on the floor needed to win. It leaves the House in the same state of limbo it's been in since Matt Gaetz moved to vacate the speakership, which led to the ouster of Kevin McCarthy.
--:-- David Marcus: Well, Dave, here we are again. What was the political iceberg that Jordan ran into on Tuesday?
--:-- John Bickley: Morning, John. Jordan lost the vote on the floor, which was expected, but it wasn't clear how many Republicans would vote against him. He was hoping for just a handful, and it wound up at 20. That's more no votes than Kevin McCarthy got back in January.
--:-- David Marcus: Notably, four of the no votes were from New York Republicans led by Representative Mark Waller. As we talked about at the beginning of all this, they were squarely against removing McCarthy from day one and owed McCarthy a favor for keeping the government open, which their moderate constituents wanted.
--:-- John Bickley: So even people close to Jordan acknowledged that this was a very bad result. And after the vote, there were fears that he could lose rather than gain votes in a second roll call.
--:-- David Marcus: So long story short, we really are no closer to having a speaker. Yeah. So what is the state of play now? When might we see a vote? And is there reason to believe that Jordan can actually flip enough votes to pull this out?
--:-- John Bickley: A vote had been scheduled for 6 p.m. Tuesday night, but that was scuttled, a pretty good indication that Jordan had not secured enough support. Now voting is planned for today at 11.
--:-- David Marcus: Reports indicate that he reached out to Representative Steve Scalise, who had also run for speaker, to ask for help, and Scalise said no. Look, Jordan can only afford three no votes. At least two, Ken Buck and Carlos Jimenez say they will not change their votes.
--:-- John Bickley: And Jimenez is among a few members suggesting at this point they just go back to Kevin McCarthy. We have also heard talk of a plan to keep Speaker Pro Tem Patrick McHenry in place for a month, possibly with Democrat support.
--:-- David Marcus: Where does that effort stand? It's still out there and some of the holdouts are floating it. It's also gotten the attention of Democratic Majority Leader Hakeem Jeffries. It's not clear if this is a real possibility or a bluff by the moderates to show that they, unlike the pro-Jordan hardliners, have an actual plan B.
--:-- John Bickley: But if the second vote for Jordan goes badly expect to hear more about it Yeah This was a rare occasion in politics where nobody really knew what the outcome would be What was the atmosphere like And what did Jordan team who thought they were much closer what did they miss
--:-- David Marcus: It was a very dramatic scene. But unlike previous iterations of these votes, only two speeches were given, one for Jordan and one for Jeffries, who actually got the most votes with all 212 Democrats.
--:-- John Bickley: It was further evidence that the forces aligned against Jordan aren't interested in optics or TV shows. That's why some observers think that a letter that Sean Hannity sent to reluctant members may have backfired.
--:-- David Marcus: Those strong-arm tactics can sometimes just harden opposition. This view is expressed by several GOP members, including Florida's Byron Donald, who is very firmly in Jordan's camp.
--:-- John Bickley: Finally, do we know how far Jordan is willing to go to win this? does he have the stomach for the kind of 15-vote marathon McCarthy endured?
--:-- David Marcus: I'm sure he has the stomach for it, but the question is whether he can gain the momentum for it. It's vital that he gets the number of no votes to go down, probably into the single digits to keep slogging on.
--:-- John Bickley: If he loses more support, on the other hand, then we will be farther from having a speaker than we have been since Matt Gaetz vacated the chair two weeks ago.
--:-- David Marcus: Meanwhile, a lot of important decisions facing the House right now. Yeah, there's a few.
--:-- John Bickley: Dave, thanks for reporting. Thanks for having me.
--:-- [Discussion continues with a new topic]
--:-- John Bickley: An explosion inside a hospital in Gaza Tuesday has reportedly resulted in hundreds of deaths and has further escalated tensions in the ongoing war.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Well, as John said, an explosion at a hospital in Gaza has resulted in an unknown number of casualties and also a number of conflicting reports.
--:-- John Bickley: Almost immediately afterward, Hamas claimed it was an Israeli airstrike. That claim was quickly echoed by several legacy media outlets and also left-wing politicians, including Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: But the IDF promptly issued a statement making clear that there were no Israeli strikes in that area and providing video evidence showing what appeared to be a failed rocket launch by Hamas, which does happen quite often.
--:-- John Bickley: Also on Tuesday, Hamas announced that Ayman Nafal, one of their top commanders who was in charge of all military activities in central Gaza, had been killed in a separate strike Tuesday, along with an unknown number of terrorists in the region.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: The terror group also released the first footage of an Israeli hostage since the war began. In a short video, 21-year-old Mia Shem can be seen lying on a bed with a large bandage on her right arm.
--:-- John Bickley: She then speaks to the camera, pleading for her family and friends, saying, please get me out of here as quickly as possible.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: An IDF spokesperson says the video is part of an effort by Hamas, quote, to wage psychological war.
--:-- John Bickley: Shem is one of around 200 hostages currently being held throughout Gaza. According to Hamas, Israeli airstrikes have killed 22 of those hostages, though, as with nearly every report coming out of Gaza, those claims have not yet been verified.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Right. And that's certainly worth repeating.
--:-- John Bickley: Now, Secretary of State Antony Blinken wrapped up high-level meetings in Israel yesterday.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: What came out of those discussions?
--:-- John Bickley: Yeah it important to note Biden visit comes after a separate appearance from Blinken who spent seven hours with the Israeli war cabinet Monday evening Coming out of the meeting Blinken said the two countries quote have agreed to develop a plan that will enable humanitarian aid from donor nations and multilateral organizations to reach civilians in Gaza.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Remember, Gaza is dangerously short on food, water, and fuel at the moment, as Israel has cut off aid on their end and Egypt has kept their border closed, preventing supplies from coming in.
--:-- John Bickley: In response to the situation, the U.N. Secretary General called on Hamas to release all hostages, quote, without condition and for Israel to allow rapid and unimpeded aid for the sake of the civilians in Gaza.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: But to this point, we've yet to see much movement on that front as little aid has made its way into the besieged region.
--:-- John Bickley: And President Biden is hoping to push those efforts forward, correct?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Right. So according to the White House, there are a few main goals for his visit. First and foremost, Biden wants to show solidarity with Israel, who he says is justified in their retaliation against Hamas.
--:-- John Bickley: Biden's also been clear that he wants to prevent the war from spreading to multiple fronts. On Monday, Iran's foreign minister warned of, quote, the possibility of preemptive action ahead of Israel's expected invasion of Gaza.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Biden is clearly hoping his visit will help dissuade Iran from opening up another front through Lebanon.
--:-- John Bickley: And third, Biden reportedly wants to open up, quote, civilian safe zones in Gaza to prevent collateral damage, as well as securing shipments of supplies to civilians.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: The president is expected to urge Jordan and other nations in the region to open their borders for those fleeing the conflict.
--:-- John Bickley: Although that appears pretty unlikely at the moment, right?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah. Leaders in both Egypt and Jordan have repeatedly said that they will not take in Palestinian refugees.
--:-- John Bickley: Here's Jordan's King Abdullah on Tuesday ahead of Biden's visit. On the issues of refugees coming to Jordan, that is a red line, because I think that is the plan by certain of the usual suspects to try and create de facto issues on the ground.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: No refugees in Jordan, no refugees in Egypt.
--:-- John Bickley: Now, shifting gears before we go, we saw some interesting polling on American sentiment toward the conflict in Israel.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah, this was interesting. So this week we got our first data on how Americans feel about the war, and there was near universal support of Israel.
--:-- John Bickley: According to a poll from CNN, for example, 70% of respondents say an Israeli invasion of Gaza would be justified, while just 8% say it would not.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: A separate NPR poll found that nearly two in three Americans say the U.S. government should publicly support Israel, while just 8% say they should publicly oppose them.
--:-- John Bickley: And there was rare bipartisan consensus on that front, with 77% of Republicans and 69% of Democrats calling for government support of Israel.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So while a number of lawmakers in Washington, especially those on the far left, have urged Israel to stand down and avoid a military response in Gaza, the American people, who rarely agree on anything in large numbers, clearly view a war as justified and do want the U.S. to stand with Israel.
--:-- John Bickley: Right. Well, as you said, rare agreement here when it comes to Israel's right to defend itself.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yep. All right, Cabot, thanks for reporting. Anytime.
--:-- [Discussion continues with a new topic]
--:-- John Bickley: Poland's right-wing government is set to lose control after eight years in power.
--:-- Tim Pearce: Broadly speaking Poland elections were about a more nationalistic and traditionally Catholic vision for the country versus a more European liberal vision and voters seemed to pick the latter.
--:-- John Bickley: That said, uniting the center-left coalition into one government won't be easy. Tusk's left-leaning coalition has to have over a dozen parties in it to get a majority of seats, and pretty much the only issue they all agree on is opposing the current government led by the Law and Justice Party.
--:-- Tim Pearce: Tusk's civic coalition is made up of six parties that are very diverse ideologically, from progressives to agrarians to a center-right party.
--:-- John Bickley: And Tusk will have to cobble together about half a dozen more parties to create a government. So a complicated balancing act there.
--:-- Tim Pearce: How significant is this? How big of a rejection is it for the right wing?
--:-- John Bickley: Well, it's certainly not the outcome Prime Minister Mateusz Moriecki wanted, but his Law and Justice Party is still very popular in Poland.
--:-- Tim Pearce: It's the most popular, in fact. Finalizing the results of Sunday's election took a few days, but law and justice seems to have won about 35% of the country's vote more than any other party.
--:-- John Bickley: It has 194 seats of 460 in the parliament. That's the first time any party has been able to maintain at least 30% support for a period of eight years since 1989, the year Poland broke from communism.
--:-- Tim Pearce: And what about the prime minister office? How clear is the way for Tusk to secure that?
--:-- John Bickley: He's the favorite, but it's not locked up yet. Poland's president, Andrzej Duda, has 30 days from the election to name someone to put a government together.
--:-- Tim Pearce: Duda has ties to the Law and Justice Party, and regardless, the president typically gives a coalition with the most seats the first chance at building a government.
--:-- John Bickley: So, there's a small chance that Law and Justice could cut a deal with some of the smaller coalitions and stay in power, but that's unlikely.
--:-- Tim Pearce: Most likely at the moment is Law and Justice will get a chance, fail, and then Duda will move on to Tusk Coalition, which received about 30% of the vote and the second most seats.
--:-- John Bickley: Then it'll be up to Tusk to keep his coalition together. If he is able to make a government, it could be a rocky prime ministership for him.
--:-- Tim Pearce: Right. Now, broadening out here, how will this affect the rest of Europe? What kind of impact will this have?
--:-- John Bickley: Yeah, Poland has been a member of the European Union for almost two decades now, and Tusk actually formally served as president of the European Council.
--:-- Tim Pearce: So the EU was watching Poland's election, and it seems happy about the way it turned out.
--:-- John Bickley: Germany especially was hoping for a change in leadership since the prior government had been very critical of Germany.
--:-- Tim Pearce: Law and justice ran on anti-German sentiment, saying Germany hadn't given Poland just restitution for World War II and accusing Tusk of being a German agent.
--:-- John Bickley: Law and justice didn't make many friends in the EU, but this new coalition is much more liberal and EU-friendly, so it'll try to rebuild a lot of those relationships.
--:-- Tim Pearce: One thing that is not likely to change under Tusk's leadership is Poland's strict immigration policy.
--:-- John Bickley: The EU has pressured the Poles to accept more refugees over the years, many from the Middle East.
--:-- Tim Pearce: And Polish officials across the political spectrum have widely rejected that.
--:-- John Bickley: Despite disagreement on other issues, there is broad agreement in Poland that heavy immigration would bring crime and civil unrest.
--:-- Tim Pearce: Poland currently has one of the lowest crime rates in Europe.
--:-- John Bickley: Well, the immigration issue is on everyone's mind right now. Yeah, it is.
--:-- Tim Pearce: Tim, thanks for joining us. Thanks for having me.
--:-- John Bickley: That's all the time we've got this morning. Thanks for waking up with us. We'll be back later this afternoon with more news you need to know.
