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--:-- Georgia Howe: Welcome to Morning Wire, I'm Georgia Howe.
--:-- John Bickley: And I'm John Bickley, Daily Wire Editor-in-Chief. It's Saturday, July 16th.
--:-- Georgia Howe: While inflation continues to take a heavy toll on Americans' pocketbooks, there's growing hope for those looking for a new house.
--:-- John Bickley: After months of houses selling at record prices, the market's showing some signs of cooling off. Is the seller's market shifting to a buyer's market?
--:-- Georgia Howe: We're going to explore that and more on today's show. Thanks for waking up with Morning Wire. Stay tuned.
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--:-- Georgia Howe: After months of record-setting prices in the housing market, homebuyers are finally starting to see some relief.
--:-- John Bickley: Here are the details on what's causing the cool down and whether a real estate crash could be coming. I'm joined by Daily Wire senior editor Cabot Phillips.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Thanks for having me on the show.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So, Cabot, walk us through the numbers. Just how much of a dip have we seen?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So, we talked on the show about how if you wanted to buy a home this spring and summer, you were going to be paying anywhere from 15 to 25% more than the year before. And as prices hit record after record, we kept wondering, is it ever going to slow down?
--:-- John Bickley: Yeah.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Well, it appears to have finally cooled off at least a bit. According to a few different metrics, home buyers are finally getting some relief. For example, in June, 15% of home sales fell through.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Now, this might sound bad, but real estate experts say it's actually a sign that buyers either found better, more affordable options after they'd already gone under contract, or that the contracts they had signed fell through because buyers had more leverage to negotiate now that there are more houses on the market.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: It's also an indication that fewer buyers are waiving inspections and appraisal contingencies. Remember, a lot of people were going into contracts without any of those. So essentially, all of this is evidence that buyers aren't as desperate as they were earlier in the year, and that's a good thing for the market.
--:-- John Bickley: Yeah, that could be good news.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: What other evidence have we seen?
--:-- Georgia Howe: Well, first off, mortgage applications are way down. The latest data from June shows a 16% decrease from the year earlier.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And the latest numbers from May also show a 19% decrease in the number of total home sales compared to the same month last year. We also saw a 13% uptick in the number of homes going on the market that month and simple supply and demand. More houses to pick from means fewer bidding wars and lower prices.
--:-- Georgia Howe: People looking on Zillow or Redfin right now will also be seeing something that they probably haven't seen in a long time, and that is price cuts.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Oh, yeah. I remember those. Last month, about one in 10 homes on the market had cut their listing price. And in some cities that had experienced the highest price increases that number was as high as 40.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So if you had given up on living in your dream city last year, maybe go have another look online because you going to see more options to choose from and maybe even some deals to be found.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: A lot of people will be glad to hear that. So what's driving the shift?
--:-- John Bickley: There are a few things. Obviously, inflation is playing a factor, as it is with everything in the economy. As prices go up on everything else, purchasing power goes down and more Americans have decided to wait to buy a home because they're nervous about the state of the economy or simply don't have the money on hand to make a down payment.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: But the number one factor here, without a doubt, is the increase in interest rates. It's Econ 101. Again, as it becomes more expensive to borrow money, fewer people will be able to afford homes.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Keep in mind, this time last year, rates were down at 2.9%. They're now at 5.75%. And as a result, the average American now spends 36% of their income on housing. That's the highest percentage that we've seen since the 1980s. And for more context, in January, that number was just 24%.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So 24 to 36% in just a few months. Yeah, that's steep. Very steep. And that spike in just a few short months pushed a lot of people out of the house hunt.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So while it is a good thing for many buyers that the market is cooling down, one main reason that's happening is because a lot of other people just aren't able to afford a home right now. So there's some good and some bad there.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And when you start talking about the housing market, the other big question people have is whether a crash, similar to what we saw in 2008, is coming.
--:-- Georgia Howe: What can you tell us there?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Well, as always on this sort of thing, it just depends on who you ask. But the prevailing narrative right now is that we're not heading for a housing crash. At least that's what the current data seem to show.
--:-- John Bickley: First, lenders have been much more strict in recent years about who they're giving money to. So the average credit score of a borrower today is 751 compared to 699 back in 2010.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Also, because of the spike in home prices, homeowners today have a lot more equity than at any point in American history. So they've got options to refinance or access cash if they get in trouble.
--:-- Georgia Howe: All right, so one final question for those not buying a home, what's the rental market looking like?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah, that's one area where you're still going to be paying a premium. According to ApartmentList, the rents on new leases are up around 14% so far this year, and that comes after they rose 17% in 2021.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So when it comes to housing right now, like everything else in America, you're going to be paying more than you're used to paying.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah, it's just the unfortunate reality. Well, at least there's some relief on the horizon. Hopefully, yeah.
--:-- John Bickley: Cabot, thanks for reporting.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Anytime.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That was Daily Wire senior editor Cabot Phillips.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Coming up, a new report by the Fed suggests there is a marriage penalty. You can get this show and all of the content you love wherever you are, all on the Daily Wire app.
--:-- John Bickley: Even if you're not a Daily Wire member, you'll be the first to know what's trending with mobile notifications for the latest news. And you'll get content from all of your favorite Daily Wire shows. Download the Daily Wire app and keep up with the facts no matter where your day takes you.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Is our tax system penalizing marriage? A new report by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta finds new evidence for the so-called marriage tax or marriage penalty. What does this mean, especially for low-income unmarried mothers?
--:-- John Bickley: Here to discuss is Carrie Sheffield, Senior Policy Analyst at Independent Women's Voice.
--:-- Carrie Sheffield: Thanks for having me, Georgia.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So, Keri, first off, what did this new study by the Atlanta Fed find?
--:-- Carrie Sheffield: The report looked at what happens to an individual's earnings after they get married. They found that because of the way certain social welfare benefits programs are structured, getting married actually hurts the household incomes for some women.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Essentially what happens is that when someone usually a single mother is eligible for welfare programs like public housing housing vouchers food stamps or Medicaid they must fall below certain income thresholds.
--:-- Carrie Sheffield: If that woman then gets married to a spouse who is working, the household then earns too much and those taxpayer-funded benefits disappear. So essentially, some women have a disincentive to marry, or what's sometimes called a marriage tax.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So how big of an impact are we talking about? How significant is the marriage tax?
--:-- Carrie Sheffield: Well, it's complicated and it has everything to do with income brackets. If you're a wealthier person who marries another wealthier person, you actually see a boost in household earnings. But if you're poor and marrying someone else poor, there is a hit to your household earnings.
--:-- Georgia Howe: The researchers said the variation in marriage taxation is particularly striking and ranges across our sample from negative 74.4% to positive 45.8%. percent.
--:-- Carrie Sheffield: For low-income single females with children, Fed researchers said that this so-called marriage tax is very severe. They said that absent the tax, 13.7 percent more would marry each year. Cumulatively, they said that 7.5 percent more would be married by age 35.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So what are policymakers saying about this so-called marriage tax?
--:-- Carrie Sheffield: Well, this issue isn't exactly new. Republican senators like Marco Rubio of Florida and Tim Scott of South Carolina, have been talking about this issue for a while. For them, they say this study confirms the laws of economics. When you tax something, you get less of it. When you subsidize something, you get more of it.
--:-- Georgia Howe: These senators say this is another case of well-intentioned liberal policy that has detrimental unintended consequences.
--:-- Carrie Sheffield: Now, in separate research, Harvard-trained economist Raj Chetty found that being born into a two-parent home is the top variable as to whether child grows up in poverty, drops out of school, or gets into drugs and gangs.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Jason Riley, a researcher for the Manhattan Institute for Public Policy, has pointed out the broader trend that began with the Great Society welfare expansion in the 1960s. In the 60s, nearly 75% of Black babies were born into two-parent married homes. Now it's the opposite. More than 70% of Black babies are born into unmarried homes.
--:-- Carrie Sheffield: Some progressive lawmakers counter and say that the reason for the collapse in the Black family is due to structural racism, including the rise of mass incarceration among Black men.
--:-- Georgia Howe: But Riley points out that the expansion of those welfare programs predated the rise in crime, which predated the rise in incarceration.
--:-- Carrie Sheffield: This new Federal Reserve research will likely renew calls to restructure the tax code in ways that won't punish family formation.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Right. I mean, this is a new report, but definitely a longtime issue.
--:-- Carrie Sheffield: Carrie, thanks for reporting.
--:-- Carrie Sheffield: Thank you.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That was Carrie Sheffield, Senior Policy Analyst at Independent Women's Voice.
--:-- Georgia Howe: In a first for the Catholic Church, Pope Francis has named three women to sit on the Vatican Council that vets bishop nominations. The move is the latest in a string of progressive reforms the Pope has set in motion, causing controversy within the Church.
--:-- John Bickley: Daily Wire investigative reporter Maraid Elordi is here with more details for us.
--:-- Maraid Elordi: Hey, so Pope Francis on Wednesday tapped three women to serve on this council called the Dicastry for Bishops. The Dicastry, which is also known as the Congregation for Bishops, is the body that vets bishop nominations and submits its recommendations to the Pope on who should become a new bishop.
--:-- Georgia Howe: This gives the Dicastry a lot of power since it oversees most of the church's bishops across the globe. Up until now, the dicastery's members included church hierarchy like cardinals and other bishops. But now, the first women will serve on the council.
--:-- Maraid Elordi: Two of the three women are nuns, Sister Raffaella Petrini, who's already a high-ranking Vatican administrator, and Sister Yvonne Rheingote, who was the superior general of a religious order, the daughters of Mary the Helper.
--:-- Georgia Howe: The other female appointment to the dicastery is a laywoman, Maria Lea Zervino, who is president of a global Catholic women's group.
--:-- Maraid Elordi: Okay, so this is a pretty powerful position that no woman has ever held in a church before.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Right. Now, this move ties into the larger picture of conservative versus progressive forces putting pressure on the church, right?
--:-- Maraid Elordi: Right. Well, some groups have jumped at this opportunity to push the church to be more progressive in a way that would conflict with church doctrine. The Women's Ordination Conference, a group that's considered heretical that pushes for women priests, said there is, quote, deep irony in allowing women to serve in the dicastery, but barring them from actually being priests and bishops.
--:-- Georgia Howe: However, historically, while the church is very clear that only men can be priests, women have taken on high-ranking roles in the church. One example is St. Catherine of Siena, who spent years advising the pope at the time, Pope Gregory XI.
--:-- Maraid Elordi: She was named a doctor of the church.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I spoke with Teresa Tomeo, author and syndicated Catholic talk show host, to discuss Pope Francis' decision.
--:-- Teresa Tomeo: I actually think it's a net positive, and this goes back to something the Pope promised back in 2013, early in his pontificate, that he was going to look for a deeper theology for women in the church.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Women have done so much in the church and leadership throughout the centuries, and they've been very involved both at the parish level, at the diocesan level, and chancellery positions and other positions.
--:-- Teresa Tomeo: So I think this is just adding to that. The Pope has been very clear that he's not interested in even discussing women priests.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Tomeo also spoke to us about flawed media coverage of the church and how we can correct it. They do not have a real sense of how the church operates, and they think the church should operate as a democracy.
--:-- Teresa Tomeo: They don't understand that equality does not equal sameness. So to them, they're going to keep pushing this, quote-unquote, women priest issues until the end of time, because they believe it should be so, and they want people to be convinced.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I think what we have to do is, I'm always telling my listeners that we have to keep our eyes on Jesus, the author and finisher of our faith.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So overall, while Pope Francis can sometimes lean in a progressive direction, this particular move to name women to the dicastery has roots in church history.
--:-- Maraid Elordi: All right, well, thanks, Maraid, for that context.
--:-- Maraid Elordi: Thanks, John.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That was Daily Wire investigative reporter Maraid Alordi.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Other stories we're tracking this week. Bill Gates is donating $20 billion to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, saying he will eventually be off the list of the world's richest people.
--:-- John Bickley: Twitter users experienced a 45-minute outage on Thursday, one of the platform's lengthiest outages in years.
--:-- Georgia Howe: X-ray imaging was used to discover a secret self-portrait of famed painter Vincent Van Gogh. The self-portrait was hidden behind his painting, Head of a Peasant Woman.
--:-- John Bickley: New York City's monkeypox vaccination website crashed this week as over 15,000 people tried to schedule a time to get inoculated.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Florida's new law banning abortion after 15 weeks will remain in effect in the midst of a court battle.
--:-- John Bickley: Thanks for listening to Morning Wire. We created this show to bring more balance to the national conversation. If you love our show and you stand with our mission, consider subscribing, leaving us a five-star rating, and most importantly, sharing our podcast with a friend.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's all the time we've got this morning. Thanks for waking up with us. We'll be back tomorrow with the news you need to know.
