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--:-- John Bickley: The first contest in the 2024 presidential primary takes place today. Voters in Iowa gather together to decide which Republican candidate will be on the ballot. This is go time. All eyes are on Iowa.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And you get it. We've gone door to door, getting people to commit to caucus to us. I'm leading by 30 and 35 and 40 points in every poll. They can't find a bad one.
--:-- John Bickley: Will Trump run away with it as expected? We look at the final polls.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I'm Daily Wire editor-in-chief John Bickley with Georgia Howe. It's Monday, January 15th, MLK Day, and this is Morning Wire.
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--:-- Georgia Howe: The showdown over the border between the Biden administration and Texas takes a dramatic turn. And protests over the U.S. strikes on Iran-backed Houthi militants take a violent turn this weekend as demonstrators nearly breached an exterior gate at the White House.
--:-- John Bickley: What prompted the protests and how is the Biden administration responding?
--:-- Georgia Howe: Thanks for waking up with Morning Wire. Stay tuned. We have the news you need to know.
--:-- [Music transitions to an ad theme]
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--:-- John Bickley: The 2024 presidential election officially kicks off today, with caucus goers in Iowa making their pick in the GOP primary. Here with more on what to watch for and how today's results will impact the race for the White House is Daily Wire senior editor Cabot Phillips.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Hey, thanks for having me.
--:-- John Bickley: So it's finally here. What can we expect to see out of Iowa?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Well, I would love to build suspense and tell everyone it's a toss up, but that's just not the case. It's been months now since we've seen a single poll showing anyone within 20 points of Donald Trump. It's really his to lose at this point.
--:-- John Bickley: On Sunday, we got to see the final poll from the Des Moines Register, the gold standard for polling in the state, and it showed Trump sitting at 48%, more than doubling his closest competitor.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Behind him were Nikki Haley at 20%, Ron DeSantis at 16%, and Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%. Importantly, just 5% said they were undecided, so it does not appear there's much room for late movement in a state that historically has been famous for last-minute swings.
--:-- John Bickley: So we're not necessarily bracing for a surprise here. No, not exactly. The big question most people are asking is not really if Trump will win, but by how much.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: We're going to be watching tonight very closely to see if he can get to 50%. If he fails to do so, his opponents will likely argue that the majority of Republicans still want someone else, and they'll also claim that he underperformed.
--:-- John Bickley: Now, it is worth noting that Iowa is experiencing a frigid cold front this week. The high in Des Moines, get this today, is negative two degrees.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So conventional wisdom suggests that that'll actually give an edge to the candidate with the highest levels of voter enthusiasm, which in this case, unsurprisingly, is Trump.
--:-- John Bickley: According to that Des Moines Register poll, 89% of his supporters say they are extremely or very enthusiastic to vote for him. For Ron DeSantis that number was 62, and for Nikki Haley it was just 39.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So Iowans are really going to be tested by the elements when it comes to just how badly they want to get out in caucus.
--:-- John Bickley: We talked a lot about the battle for second place there. What's the latest on that very hotly contested fight?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah, as far as suspense goes, the struggle for second place is really the one to watch. DeSantis and Haley each want to come out of Iowa painting themselves as the only viable non-Trump alternative.
--:-- John Bickley: For his part, DeSantis is looking to coalesce the support of evangelical voters who are much more fractured than in years past in Iowa.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: The Florida governor has focused much of his time of late in Northwest Iowa, which is home to a large conservative evangelical population, and he's routinely touted the support of multiple Christian leaders in the state.
--:-- John Bickley: DeSantis also benefits from very strong favorability ratings among Republicans there, with 58% viewing him positively and 36% negatively.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: That's compared to a 48 to 46 split for Haley, meaning DeSantis has a net favorability rating that is 20 points higher than Nikki Haley.
--:-- John Bickley: That is very significant. And now that he's third in most polls, a second-place finish would actually seem much more impressive now than it would have looked back in the fall when he and Trump were well ahead of the field.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So second place could actually be spun as a victory for his campaign. Remember, Iowa is all about perception.
--:-- John Bickley: Yeah, it is. And what about Haley? What's her path to victory?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Well, there's no question that Nikki Haley has gained ground in the last two months, going from afterthought to second place now in polling.
--:-- John Bickley: But with that climb comes rising expectations. Her standing at second in the polls could actually come back to bite her if she ends up finishing third, because obviously it would make it look like her momentum was more of a mirage.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: But it is interesting how Haley's base of support differs from that of Trump and DeSantis. While the latter rely almost entirely on Republicans, according to that register poll, 39% of her support comes from independents and 11% actually comes from Democrats.
--:-- John Bickley: That is 10 times more support among Democrats for Haley than any other Republican candidate.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Now, you've worked on presidential campaigns yourself in the past. Give us an idea of the importance of Iowa in the grand scheme of things.
--:-- John Bickley: Yeah, Iowa has historically been crucial in weeding out lesser candidates.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: But a win does not always guarantee success in the end. In the last three true primaries, the GOP winners in Iowa were Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, and Mike Huckabee, none of whom went on to be the nominee in the end.
--:-- John Bickley: One more thing worth noting, Iowa does not have a winner-take-all system, meaning the state's 40 primary delegates will be awarded based on percentage of the vote.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So, all that to say, we've got a long way to go until a nominee is chosen, but I'm just happy that we're finally getting things going here.
--:-- John Bickley: Yeah, it's finally begun. Cabot, thanks for reporting.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Anytime.
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--:-- John Bickley: Texas has taken control of a stretch of the U.S. southern border in Eagle Pass. The town, a hotspot for illegal immigration, is the center of a legal battle between Texas and the federal government over border enforcement and authority.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Daily Wire reporter Tim Pierce is here to discuss. So, Tim, what has Texas done in Eagle Pass?
--:-- Tim Pierce: Hi, Georgia. Last week, Texas Governor Greg Abbott sent National Guardsmen and state troopers to take over Shelby Park.
--:-- Georgia Howe: The park is about 50 acres and is used by Border Patrol agents to stage inspections of illegal immigrants.
--:-- Tim Pierce: It also has a boat ramp that the Border Patrol uses to launch patrols of the Rio Grande.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Texas law enforcement took it over on Wednesday night, and since then, Border Patrol agents have complained that Texas will no longer allow access to the park for immigration enforcement.
--:-- Tim Pierce: Here's Abbott on Friday explaining a bit more. First with regard to what going on I think you talking about what going on in Eagle Pass right?
--:-- Georgia Howe: Yeah, so Texas has the legal authority to control ingress and egress into any geographic location in the state of Texas.
--:-- Tim Pierce: And that authority is being asserted with regard to that park in Eagle Pass, Texas, to maintain operational control of it.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Eagle Pass has been hammered by the border crisis, and Abbott has used Eagle Pass especially to test the boundary between state and federal authority on immigration.
--:-- Tim Pierce: Last year, Texas installed a 1,000-foot-long floating buoy wall to stop migrants from crossing the Rio Grande into Eagle Pass.
--:-- Georgia Howe: It's still in place today, though the Biden administration is suing to take it down.
--:-- Tim Pierce: Well, now the Biden administration recently went to courts again over Shelby Park.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And part of the argument there is that by taking it over, Texas has endangered migrants.
--:-- Tim Pierce: Yeah, this claim really exploded in the media after the bodies of a migrant woman and two children were pulled from the river on Friday.
--:-- Georgia Howe: The Biden administration has suggested that the migrants died because Texas law enforcement refused federal agents access to Shelby Park.
--:-- Tim Pierce: According to administration officials, Border Patrol agents tried to get access to the park on Friday to check out a report of migrants struggling to cross the river, but the agents were turned away.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Mexican authorities later pulled the bodies out of the river.
--:-- Tim Pierce: For its part, Texas said it did all it could. According to the Texas Military Department, a National Guard unit was standing by and went to search for the migrants in response to the report.
--:-- Georgia Howe: They couldn't find anyone and stopped the search after Mexican authorities pulled several bodies from the river.
--:-- Tim Pierce: Now, we should note that migrant deaths in the Rio Grande are fairly common.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Last year, nine bodies were pulled from the river near Eagle Pass in one day.
--:-- Tim Pierce: Hundreds have drowned in the past few years, and hundreds more have died along the border from heat and dehydration.
--:-- Georgia Howe: While these deaths are tragic, the southern border has proven to be a dangerous place, and the number of fatalities has grown alongside the increase in illegal immigration.
--:-- Tim Pierce: Immigration has become a very hot-button issue with voters, especially going into 2024.
--:-- Georgia Howe: What are the polls showing? That this could be a major problem for the Biden administration.
--:-- Tim Pierce: According to an Associated Press, NORC's Center for Public Affairs research poll published last week, 55% of Republicans and 22% of Democrats say this is a major issue.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And possibly more concerning to Democrats is the racial demographic breakdown.
--:-- Tim Pierce: According to that same poll, the number of Hispanics that say immigration is a major issue has nearly doubled from 27% last year to 47% this year.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And as Hot Air points out, on this issue, according to a Trafalgar poll last month, only 3% of Hispanics support amnesty for illegal immigrants.
--:-- Tim Pierce: So some bad signs for Democrats here.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Well, it'll be interesting to see if Democrats pivot on this issue as they go into the election.
--:-- Tim Pierce: Tim, thanks for reporting.
--:-- Tim Pierce: Thanks for having me.
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--:-- Georgia Howe: A protest in Washington, D.C. on Saturday grew violent as crowds attempted to break down the security fence outside the White House.
--:-- John Bickley: Some White House staff had to be moved to more secure locations as law enforcement sought to quell the protests and secure the area around 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
--:-- Georgia Howe: The incident occurred after the U.S. bombed military sites in Yemen controlled by the Iran-backed Houthis.
--:-- John Bickley: Here to discuss the protest and how it could impact President Biden's Middle East policies going forward is Daily Wire contributor David Marcus.
--:-- David Marcus: Hey, thanks for having me.
--:-- John Bickley: First off, can you just walk us through the events of Saturday night? How unruly did the protesters get?
--:-- David Marcus: Morning, John. It seemed to start off like any of the other protests we've seen recently.
--:-- Georgia Howe: But as crowds approached the White House they began shaking and pushing the temporary fencing put up by the Secret Service.
--:-- David Marcus: Which admitted that portions of that fence had been damaged. Ostensibly this was a pro-protest, but with a new twist as the crowd could be heard chanting Yemen Yemen make us proud turn another ship around.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Which along with almost rhyming, is a reference to Houthi rebels attacking shipping in the Red Sea, in response to which, as you said, the United States and its allies launched powerful strikes against the Yemeni terrorists.
--:-- David Marcus: So as the conflict is expanding on the ground in the Middle East, so too is it expanding rhetorically here at home.
--:-- John Bickley: So were the White House or President Biden himself at any real risk here?
--:-- David Marcus: And does this represent an escalation of tactics by these protesters?
--:-- Georgia Howe: Well, Biden was at Camp David, so he was well out of harm's way.
--:-- David Marcus: But there certainly was violence as police officers were assaulted and had objects thrown at them.
--:-- Georgia Howe: In addition to the damage done to the White House barricades, D.C. Police Chief Pamela Smith really slammed the protesters in a statement saying that While peaceful protest is a right, quote, violence, destructive behavior and criminal activities will not be tolerated, end quote.
--:-- David Marcus: Although it must be said that as of Sunday, there were no reports of arrests for criminal behavior.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's very curious given the gravity of the offenses.
--:-- David Marcus: In the District of Columbia, even a misdemeanor conviction for assaulting a cop results in 180 days in jail with a felony charge punished by 10 years.
--:-- Georgia Howe: But obviously that is only a deterrent if people are actually arrested.
--:-- David Marcus: Right. There was pretty scant news coverage of this event, especially in the establishment media.
--:-- Georgia Howe: The New York Times, for example, ignored it.
--:-- David Marcus: Is it fair to ask if that would have been the case had this been right-wing protesters doing all this?
--:-- John Bickley: Of course it's fair.
--:-- David Marcus: And of course, if the Proud Boys or some other right-wing group was trying to break down the barricade to the White House while chanting F Joe Biden, as the pro-terrorist protesters were doing, it would be a huge news story.
--:-- Georgia Howe: But this is the same New York Times that published a false story about Israel bombing a hospital in Gaza and killing hundreds based only on the word of Hamas.
--:-- David Marcus: The liberal media has really struggled to find its footing here.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Typically, they're fairly supportive to the Palestinian cause.
--:-- David Marcus: But the pure brutality of October 7th and now the constant attacks by the Houthis on international shipping done in solidarity with Hamas have made that support far less tenable.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And often the answer from the left-wing media has just been to ignore things like Saturday's violence.
--:-- David Marcus: Yeah.
--:-- John Bickley: How much of a headache is this becoming for the White House, given that a very large number of Democrats actually support Israel?
--:-- David Marcus: Oh, he's absolutely stuck between two wings of his party.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Progressive Democrats in Congress are not only continuing to call for a ceasefire in Gaza, but are now even saying that Biden's multilateral attacks on Yemen are unconstitutional because he didn't get approval from Congress.
--:-- David Marcus: And it's a problem because the far left, the people chanting F. Joe Biden Saturday night, are a core part of his electoral coalition.
--:-- Georgia Howe: But so are pro-Israel moderate Democrats.
--:-- David Marcus: The tightrope the president is walking here is getting thinner and thinner under his feet.
--:-- John Bickley: And one does have to wonder if we are approaching the moment when it finally snaps.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Yeah, difficult balancing act getting even harder, it seems.
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--:-- Georgia Howe: Thanks for listening to Morning Wire. We created this show to bring more balance to the national conversation.
--:-- John Bickley: If you love our show and you stand with our mission, please consider subscribing, leaving us a five-star rating, and most importantly, sharing our podcast with a friend.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's all the time we've got this morning. Thanks for waking up with us.
--:-- John Bickley: We'll be back this afternoon with more of the news you need to know.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Mm-hmm.
