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--:-- John Bickley: This week, El Salvador's president claimed a resounding re-election win after his historic and controversial crackdown on crime. Literally, we went from being the most dangerous country in the world to being the most secure country in the Western Hemisphere. I'm Georgia Howe with Daily Wire editor-in-chief John Bickley. It's February 10th, and this is a Saturday edition of Morning Wire.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Is the economy healthy? Some economists say the pattern of overestimated job creation numbers under President Biden is painting a false picture. There's a large number of them which started strong and they were revised outward. And the problem there is that, of course, the second and tertiary revisions don't get attention after the fact. And demand for electric vehicles has been zapped by multiple problems, putting the Biden administration's EV goals in jeopardy. I've been here for over five hours at this point, and I still have not got to charge my car. Charge, it should take 45 minutes. It's taken two hours. Thanks for waking up with Morning Wire. Stay tuned. We have the news you need to know.
--:-- John Bickley: This week, Naib Bukele, the president of El Salvador who gained worldwide fame for his crackdown on gangs, secured a resounding re-election victory. Here are the details of his landslide win and what it means for Central America's Daily Wire senior editor Cabot Phillips. Hey, Cabot. So Bukele has really burst onto the scene in recent years. Give us some background for those unfamiliar with his rise.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah, a few years ago, Nayib Bukele was a little-known mayor of the city of San Salvador. Today, he is one of the most popular heads of state in the entire world. Before Bukele took office, El Salvador had the highest murder rate of any country on earth that was not an active war zone. And vicious gangs like MS-13 and Barrio 18 had near total control of huge swaths of the country. They demanded exorbitant extortion fees from anyone wanting to start a business and controlled everything from shopping malls to markets and public parks. And routinely gunned down anyone who stepped foot on gang turf without their blessing. They also spent untold millions of dollars paying off politicians and law enforcement in exchange for immunity. For all intents and purposes, gangs in El Salvador constituted a sort of quasi-government that dominated and terrorized the country's population. But in 2019, Bukele was propelled to office with a law and order campaign focused on waging a war on those gangs.
--:-- John Bickley: Right, and that crackdown has been very successful. Yeah, beyond anyone's wildest expectations. After he was first elected, Bukele tried negotiating with the gangs first, offering better prison conditions in exchange for a ceasefire on civilians. But when that had little effect, he implemented one of the strictest crackdowns we've seen in modern history, ordering a nationwide roundup of anyone suspected of gang affiliation. Within months, the military had arrested 65,000 people, and Bukele built the world's largest prison to house them all. Almost overnight violence in the country fell dramatically. The year before Bukele took office there were 3 homicides in El Salvador In 2023 that number was 154. That means the country per capita murder rate is now on par with Idaho, one of the 10 safest states in America. And that stunning turnaround was rewarded by voters this week.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah, indeed. So tell us about that historic victory. Well, shortly after starting his crackdown, Bukele's approval ratings hit 91%, making him, again, arguably the most popular head state on earth. And this week, that popularity propelled him to the largest presidential victory in the country's history, where he won, get this, 83% of the vote. No other candidate was even above 7%. And while votes are still being counted, Bukele says his party has already won 58 of the country's 60 congressional seats. And he said there's a chance they win all 60 once the final votes are counted. That would make El Salvador one of the only democratic countries in modern history controlled by a single political party. Yeah, quite an achievement.
--:-- John Bickley: Now, we have seen growing opposition to Bukele on the global stage. Let's get into that, that opposition to him. Yeah, that is worth noting. While Bukele has apparent near universal support among his own people, leaders in Europe, the United Nations, and the U.S. have all decried him as an authoritarian and called for a human rights investigation in El Salvador. Last week, for example, Democrats in Congress, led by squad member Ilhan Omar, sent a letter to the White House accusing Bukele of, quote, threatening democracy and human rights and targeting environmental activists along with those gang members. They went on to call on President Biden to cut funding and other support for El Salvador until Bukele softens his approach. All right, so some major allegations against him there. Tell us about those alleged human rights abuses.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Well, while Bukele's tactics have been wildly popular among El Salvadorans, they have resulted in a major crackdown on some personal freedoms. For example, the country's Congress granted Bukele the power to essentially put a hold on due process, which allowed law enforcement to raid the homes of suspected gang members without a search warrant. It also rescinded the right of prisoners to be informed of the reason for their arrest and also extended the time a suspect can be held without charges from three to 15 days. There have also been reports of innocent people being arrested during those mass raids and other examples of police violence in prison. Now, Bukele, for his part, has said that those found innocent have been released and that these are more short-term measures. Essentially, he's arguing that gang members will only respond to a show of force and says that in times of war, extreme measures must be taken. Again, he views this, and many people in the country view this, as a war. And given the election results, the people of El Salvador seem more than willing to make that compromise. Nice. Fascinating situation developing there. Cabot, thanks for reporting.
--:-- John Bickley: Anytime. Revision regarding recent job reports. They say the jobs picture isn't as positive as initially reported. Here to discuss the true state of the economy is Daily Wire reporter Tim Pierce. Hey, Tim. So what can you tell us about these downward revisions?
--:-- Tim Pierce: Hey, John. So when the government publishes initial reports, for example, January's jobs numbers, those numbers will often be revised weeks later as more data comes in. What has concerned some economists is the pattern in those revisions. The Daily Caller reported recently that in 2023, the Labor Department overestimated the number of jobs added every month by an average of over 100,000 jobs each month. We spoke with Peter Earle, the senior economist for the American Institute for Economic Research, and he said that those initial reports rely more heavily on subjective judgments than hard data. And although there are standard operating procedures at times it possible that there could be some judgment there that makes certain numbers and therefore certain policies more favorable than they actually are. So while I'm not accusing anyone of wrongdoing, I am saying that the potential is there for introducing subjective factors or subjective judgments that can mislead as to what's actually happening in the economy. So if the data is eventually corrected, why do these initial reports matter? Because of optics. Here's Earl again. The initial number is what grabs people's attention, what makes headlines, and what people, you know, often get anchored to in terms of their sort of behavioral and, you know, their perception bias. And then if there are changes afterwards, they rarely hear about them. Now, this pattern of revisions helps the Biden administration's messaging on the economy, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the misleading reports are deliberate. It's worth it to point out, though, that the White House does regularly mischaracterize economic issues, such as inflation. Here's Earl on that. They've blamed gas station owners. They've blamed ocean shippers. They've blamed Vladimir Putin. They've blamed, more recently, they've blamed corporate profits. They're trying to blame grocery stores. And I've even seen some editorials, which I guess are lobbying for the current administration, saying that the fault of inflation is you, meaning you and I. I'm not sure exactly how that works, but I mean, in fact, you know, inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. And this goes back to the Federal Reserve's incredibly expansionary policy bias in the beginning of COVID. And then their delay for over a year in fighting it when inflation began to spike up. All right, so Earl is describing a lot of blame shifting going on there. So big picture, what does this mean for where the economy is headed? Well, the Federal Reserve hasn't reduced interest rates yet, and inflation is still pretty stubbornly over that 2% target rate. So we certainly haven't hit any soft landing like you may see reported every now and then. We asked Earl about it, and he leans toward a recession hitting by the end of the year. I would put myself at 70-30 in favor of a recession by the end of the year. I think that the numbers that we see, especially the top-line numbers, are not really accurately portraying what's happening below the surface of the economy. You know, inflation is still out there. You have extremely fatigued consumers who have taken on record numbers, record amounts rather, of credit card debt. You know, there's a lot of financial distress out there. You know, in addition, we have a new round, a whole new round of layoffs going on, which seem to be escaping the other employment numbers that we get from BLS, the non-par payrolls numbers. So I think there's a lot happening now in the economy, which is somewhat negative, but it's being sort of paved over by the top line numbers. And I think by the end of the year, we will see a recession. Now, I don't think, or rather, I won't guess as to how severe it will be. It may be a very short one, such as we had in 2022. But I definitely think that the actual strength of the economy is being vastly overstated by both the numbers and the people who are charged with overseeing the economy. Well, Tim, thanks for coming on and giving us some accurate numbers so we can correctly assess the economy. Thanks for having me.
--:-- John Bickley: The push for EVs appears to be running out of charge. Automakers and retailers across the country are scaling back their targets for electric vehicles, despite pressure from the Biden administration and several state governments. The industry reversal comes at a pivotal moment that could play a decisive role in the upcoming 2024 election. Joining us with the details is Daily Wire researcher Michael Whitaker. So Michael can you just give us a little background on the current push for EV adoption.
--:-- Michael Whitaker: Sure thing Georgia. Transitioning the auto industry away from gas vehicles and towards EVs has been a major policy focus of the Biden administration. Congress has spent tens of billions of dollars subsidizing EVs, and the Biden EPA has set very aggressive emission standards for automakers to encourage them to switch over. The administration's goal is to make two-thirds of all new cars sold in the United States electric by 2032. At the end of 2023, EVs accounted for about 7.6% of car sales. That's up from 5.9% in 2022, but still far short of the tenfold increase we'd need to see in the next decade or so. Some state governments have gone even further. California plans to ban the sale of new gas cars completely by 2035. Eight other states have followed suit. Michigan, home to several major automakers like Ford and General Motors, has also announced plans to make all state-owned vehicles electric by 2040. Right, so if there's a huge push from the top for EV adoption, why is the industry now scaling back? Simply put, lack of demand. According to recent survey data, less than a third of prospective buyers said they were likely to purchase an EV. EV advocates have known for a long time that there are several hurdles the technology needs to overcome before it can be adopted en masse. An insufficient number of charging stations, additional stress on the power grid, myriad problems with the manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries, including environmental damage, supply chain concerns, battery life, etc. Range is also a major problem. The average gas-powered car can go over 400 miles on a single tank. The average EV can go around 250 miles on a single charge. The best EVs can go as far or further than traditional cars, but that comes with a higher price tag. And outside major metropolitan areas, fast chargers are still few and far between. The average EV is still more expensive than the average gas-powered car, although prices have dropped dramatically over the last few years. But as of now, the most insurmountable challenge for EVs might be a lack of interest. At the end of the day, if customers don't want to buy them, automakers can't sell them. Recently, Ford announced it was cutting back on the production of F-150 Lightnings, their signature electric truck. Rental giant Hertz announced plans to sell roughly a third of their EV fleet. Both companies are refocusing on making or renting gas cars, which are more popular and more profitable. Now, what about Tesla? They seem to be the outlier here. That's correct. Tesla's Model Y was the best-selling car in the world last year, and Tesla sold more than half of all electric cars in the United States. There are even reports that Tesla is the only automaker making money on EVs, which is a little awkward because Tesla CEO Elon Musk is an outspoken critic of President Biden and has regularly been snubbed in the administration's promotion of EVs. Now, the political angle is always interesting. Is this going to be a substantial issue for Biden in 2024? Well, as the presumptive Republican nominee might say, bigly. Auto workers are a major voting bloc in the Rust Belt, which was a decisive battleground in the last two presidential elections. EVs generally require less labor to make, and some union leaders have expressed concern that more EVs mean fewer jobs and lower pay. Trump has capitalized on this and slammed EVs while courting union voters. The United Auto Workers, one of the most powerful unions in the country, endorsed Biden last Wednesday, but that doesn't guarantee their members' votes. Trump's appeal to blue-collar voters is a major part of his brand, and even marginal gains in that demographic could tip the scales in his favor. Well, it'll be interesting to see if Trump gets that Rust Belt Coalition this time around. Michael, thanks for reporting. Thanks for having me.
--:-- John Bickley: That was Daily Wire researcher Michael Whitaker. Thanks for listening to Morning Wire. We created this show to bring more balance to the national conversation. If you love our show and stand with that mission, consider subscribing, giving us a five-star rating, and most importantly, sharing our podcast with a friend. Thanks for waking up with us. We'll be back later this afternoon with an extra edition of Morning Wire. Thank you.
