Political Fallout of Ukraine Crisis | 3.1.22

[Upbeat music fades out]

Host (Georgia Howe): The NFL is back, and FanDuel's got everything you need to play your game. From same-game parlays to live betting. Right now, new customers bet $5 and get $300 in bonus bets if you win. 21-plus in president select states. 18-plus in Kentucky and Wyoming. Must be first online real money waging. $5 deposit required. Bonus issued is non-withdrawable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See full terms at FanDuel.com slash sportsbook. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

[Music transitions to a news theme]

Host (Georgia Howe): On the day of his first State of the Union address, President Joe Biden is facing his lowest poll numbers since taking office. Will the president enjoy a wartime boost to his approval? We take a look at the state of the president on the day of his State of the Union. I'm Georgia Howe with Daily Wire editor-in-chief John Bickley. It's Tuesday, March 1st, and this is Morning Wire. It's day six of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As the battle for Kiev continues, hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians are fleeing their embattled country. Meanwhile, in Russia, economic sanctions begin to take their toll. We have updates on the continuing conflict. And we speak to a financial expert about the long and short-term effects of sanctions, the importance of the swift banking system, and the potential unintended consequences it could all have on the West and cryptocurrency.

[Music transitions to a commercial break]

Host (Georgia Howe): Thanks for waking up with Morning Wire. Stay tuned. We have the news you need to know. This show is brought to you by Good Ranchers. Over 85% of the grass-fed beef sold in stores and online is imported from overseas. You're paying a premium for imported goods that don't even get USDA graded. That's why you should get all your beef, chicken, and seafood from Good Ranchers. They sell beef that's USDA prime and upper choice, chicken that's better than organic, and premium seafood. Good Ranchers deliver steakhouse quality to your door. These are real American people trying to help real American businesses. You can do good while you eat good. Support American business one delicious bite of steak at a time. So head on over to GoodRanchers.com slash wire or use code wire at checkout to get their biggest offer ever. $30 off your first order plus free express shipping. Visit GoodRanchers.com slash wire today.

[Music transitions back to the news theme]

Host (Georgia Howe): As Russia continues its violent invasion of Ukraine, a growing number of Americans now say President Biden could have done more to prevent the conflict. Here with more on the political fallout of the war in Ukraine is Daily Wire's Cabot Phillips.

Cabot Phillips: So Cabot, we've talked on the show before about how President Biden is struggling in the polls, but that was before this latest conflict. So what's the latest on the numbers? How has this impacted the president's standing with American voters?

Cabot Phillips: Yeah, historically, when there's a military conflict raging, people on both sides of the often put their differences aside and rallied together around the president. But that's just not happening here. President Biden, like you said, already came into the week with a 37% approval rating. That's about the lowest point he's seen. And it now appears to be going down even further with the news coming out of Ukraine. According to a Washington Post-ABC poll, just 33% of Americans approve of his handling of the conflict, while 47% disapprove. And another poll from Gallup found that even among Democrats, just 64% in the party approve of the job he's doing in Ukraine. And among independents, the key voting bloc for midterms, remember, that number falls to 35%. So he's really struggling right now with the vast majority of voters when it comes to Ukraine.

Cabot Phillips: There's not really any other way to spin it. Now, the president started his term with relatively healthy approvals for foreign policy So how significant is this downturn Yeah just 12 months ago 56 of Americans approved of his foreign policy while just 40 disapproved But today those numbers have completely flipped It now 56 disapprove and 40 approve And this is especially concerning for Democrats because President Biden really campaigned on the fact that he would bring a strong, steady presence to American foreign policy. For example, in one tweet back in 2020, during the campaign, he said, quote, Vladimir Putin doesn't want me to be president. He doesn't want me to be our nominee. If you're wondering why. It's because I'm the only one who's ever gone toe-to-toe with him. But according to that earlier poll from ABC, just 23% of Americans say that our country has gotten stronger on the world stage since Biden took office.

Cabot Phillips: Now, there's another poll that's getting a lot of attention that compared President Trump's foreign policy to President Biden's. So what did that poll show? Yeah, over the weekend, President Trump spoke at the conservative conference CPAC and kind of implied that things in Russia would have gone differently if he were in charge. And according to a poll from the Harvard Center for American Political Studies, a lot of Americans agree with them, most actually. 62% of those surveyed said that Putin would not have invaded Ukraine if Trump were still in office, 62%. And even 38% of Democrats agreed with that sentiment. The poll also found that 59% of Americans believed that Putin moved on Ukraine now because he saw, quote, weakness in President Biden.

Cabot Phillips: There was another interesting poll from Gallup that gauged Americans' view of Russia. Obviously, there's been a lot of rhetoric in the media the past few weeks about conservatives supposedly supporting Russia and the Putin regime. But this poll contradicts that. It found that the same number of Republicans and Democrats, 88% each, view Russia unfavorably. So not a lot of merit to the claim that Republicans are pro-Russia at this point in the conflict.

Cabot Phillips: Now, if we're talking about political fallout, obviously we have the midterms coming up. Do we expect Ukraine to have any effect on the midterm races? Well, traditionally, the economy and immigration are leading issues for midterm voters, not as much foreign policy there. So much of the impact will be determined by how long the conflict rages and obviously what the outcome ends up being. But in the short term, there is no doubt it's helping Republicans' odds of retaking the House and Senate. A new poll from ABC and the Washington Post now shows Republicans with a 49-42 advantage in early midterm voting. And among registered voters who say they're likely to vote in November, obviously those are the most important voters, that advantage jumps to 54-41 in favor of Republicans.

Host (Georgia Howe): Well, we'll be sure to get an update tomorrow after the address. Cabot, thanks for reporting. Anytime. That's Daily Wire's Cabot Phillips.

[Music transitions to a commercial break]

Host (Georgia Howe): If you're with Verizon, AT&T, or T-Mobile, you're paying too much. Switching to Pure Talk saves the average family over $800 a year. Go to puretalk.com, find the right plan for you, and enter promo code WIRE to save 50% off your first month.

[Music transitions back to the news theme]

Host (Georgia Howe): The Russian invasion of Ukraine has carried on for more than five days, while pushback from the international community continues to grow. Here with the latest updates on the conflict is Daily Wire's Ian Howarth.

Ian Howarth: So Ian, what are the updates in Ukraine? Well, there have been quite a few significant developments since we talked yesterday. One major shift was news that Belarus, an ally of Russia, could join the invasion of Ukraine. This isn't a massive surprise given that Russian troops use Belarus as the launch point for the Northern Front. The Belarusian border was the location chosen for initial peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. A Ukrainian delegation arrived to take part in the talks on Monday, all while Russia captured two more Ukrainian cities and the country second largest city Kharkiv came under heavy rocket fire The first round of peace talks concluded on Monday evening in Ukraine with the only real outcome being an agreement on topics for future talks So no ceasefire No And shortly after explosions were reported in Ukraine capital city Kyiv And with reports that the Russians have deployed 75% of their assembled combat power in Ukraine, there have been no noticeable changes in the Russian position, according to U.S. officials.

Ian Howarth: So we've heard reports that men aged 18 to 60 have been ordered to stay in Ukraine. Where are the other citizens going? Well, one UN refugee agency stated that up to 4 million Ukrainians could be displaced. The latest numbers suggest at least 360,000 people have already fled the country. Poland alone has reportedly taken in at least 200,000 Ukrainians. Interestingly, there are also reports that at least 20,000 Polish citizens have crossed into Ukraine to aid in their defense, but that remains to be confirmed.

Ian Howarth: Now, is there any indication that either Russia or Ukraine is changing their official stance in terms of making concessions? Well, on the Ukrainian side, they're not really budging. On Monday, President Zelensky signed an official application to join the European Union, a move that certainly won't calm Putin down. Zelensky said, quote, our goal is to be with all Europeans and most importantly, to be equal. I'm sure that's fair. I am sure we deserve it. And this is all while Zelensky remains in Kiev, despite reports that Russia has sent 400 mercenaries into the city to assassinate him. Wow.

Ian Howarth: And when it comes to Putin, if anything, he has escalated his rhetoric. In an economic summit on Monday, for example, he called the West an empire of lies. He also ratched up fears of nuclear war by putting his nuclear forces on increased alert. As economic sanctions from the West went into effect, the Russian ruble has also crashed, losing 40% of its value. In an effort to prop up the ruble, the Russian central bank raised its key interest rate to 20% and ordered companies to sell 80% of their foreign currency revenues.

Ian Howarth: Now, it's definitely going to be interesting to watch the longer term impacts of the sanctions. But one thing before you go, as you alluded earlier, it's been hard to verify some of the information coming out of the conflict zone. But there have been some high-profile incidents of fake news on social media. So what have you seen in that regard? Yeah, I think one event that's a good example of this is the Snake Island story. So last week, Zelensky said that 13 soldiers on a small island south of Edessa had died, quote, heroically after Russian warships attacked. Reports that they told the Russian warship to, quote, go F yourself went viral, especially on social media. But now the Ukrainian Navy is reporting that the soldiers are actually alive and well, having been forced to surrender after repelling two attacks by Russian forces.

Host (Georgia Howe): Well, Ian, thanks for the overview. Thanks, Georgia. That's Daily Wire's Ian Howarth.

[Music transitions to a commercial break]

Host (Georgia Howe): Western countries continue to ramp up sanctions on Russia and have moved to block it from the swift banking system. But will these measures be effective? Joining us to discuss is Vivek Ramaswamy, entrepreneur and New York Times bestselling author.

Vivek Ramaswamy: Thanks for joining us. Glad to be on. So as Georgia mentioned, Russia is now being blocked from the SWIFT banking system. Many aren't familiar with that system. So first, can you explain its significance for us?

Vivek Ramaswamy: Sure. And this is a topic that's been in the news for the last couple of days, the idea of taking Russia off the SWIFT system. SWIFT is really kind of like an antiquated plumbing system. It's the system that allows banks to effectively send messages to one another that allows the entire wire transfer architecture to work It what allows us to wire money from one institution to another It broken I tell you I started companies have had many hundreds of millions of dollars of financings that use wire transfers And I can tell you it surprising My first time I did it it clunky how long it takes for a wire to come in. It comes in chunks and pieces, but that's effectively a network effect that's so strong that once you have enough banking institutions and countries that are participating in that same ecosystem, it becomes really hard to change it. It also makes it very costly for somebody if you pull them off of that system.

Vivek Ramaswamy: Now, here's the thing, though. It's not today the only plumbing system that exists. China has its own alternative to SWIFT. It's nascent. There's not that many people using it by comparison, but it's called CIPS or CIPS. Russia actually has a nascent alternative too. And what I worry about is actually taking Russia off of this really awful antiquated system is going to actually catalyze the transition to making those alternatives actually come to life and actually develop real network effects of their own. And then, of course, the quiet unspoken variable that bridges the gap is crypto, which Russia can effectively use its reliance on crypto and blockchain-based approaches to transfer money. In the meantime, in a way that bridges it to plugging into the Chinese or alternative SWIFT system.

Vivek Ramaswamy: Now, along with cutting Russia out of SWIFT, the West has also imposed a series of sanctions. Sanctions have often failed to work in the past. Can these new sanctions actually be effective? Look, I do think there are effective sanctions that can be implemented. I think that there are costs to those sanctions, too. You know, obviously, if you impose sanctions and there are stronger sanctions than he anticipated, then that will have a greater effect on blunting his power. If you provide greater financial support to Ukraine or greater military support to Ukraine, then that will make it more costly and less likely for Putin to succeed. But I think that that's different than I think what the main lessons we need to take away from this, which are creating the very conditions for the cost-benefit analysis he did in the first place.

Vivek Ramaswamy: Right. And you've made the point that the West's reliance on Russian energy, in part because of the green movement, has actually helped create those conditions. Now, we've already seen the ruble fall by some 40 percent. Is Russia going to survive this? Is the Russian economy in true crisis, as we're hearing a lot of experts say? Yeah, look, I think there's no doubt they're in crisis. There's no doubt the steps that we have taken collectively, Europe and the United States, NATO allies have weakened Russia financially. And given the state of affairs that we were in a week ago, the question is it could break one of two ways. Either they're actually able to weather this storm and they're strengthened by it for all of the reasons that I mentioned, that they actually realize that they need to be participating in alternative financial systems that are more closely tied in with those built by China, etc. Or in the short run, the bone is so brittle that it's going to break in a way that Russia comes out of this even weaker and Putin's really eating the consequences of his decision.

Host (Georgia Howe): Well, Vivek, thank you so much for talking with us today. Yeah, hopefully we do it again soon. That was Vivek Ramaswamy.

[Music transitions to a commercial break]

Host (Georgia Howe): Another story we're tracking this week. More mask mandates are being lifted across the country. Starting Wednesday, New York's public school children will no longer need to wear masks. California is also lifting its school mask mandate starting on March 12th, though officials say they still strongly recommend mask wearing. And today, masks are also optional in the U.S. Capitol complex, including for those who attend the State of the Union address.

Host (Georgia Howe): If you like this episode and are interested in hearing more, subscribe to Morning Wire on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you're listening, and give us a five-star review. That's all the time we've got this morning. Thanks for waking up with us. We'll be back tomorrow with the news you need to know.