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--:-- John Bickley: This week is being billed as the most important week of the summer, as crucial information is revealed about the economy.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Is the U.S. currently in a recession, and will the Fed trigger another historic interest rate hike? We have the full report.
--:-- John Bickley: I'm John Bickley with Georgia Howe. It's Monday, July 25th, and this is Morning Wire.
--:-- Georgia Howe: The House has passed a contraception bill with a handful of Republicans joining the Democrat majority to federalize birth control laws. But the bill faces an uphill battle in the Senate.
--:-- John Bickley: We discuss why. And a Republican candidate for governor of New York was attacked on the campaign trail last week while talking about bail reform. His attacker was released hours later as a result of those very laws. We look at the case and the political fallout.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Thanks for waking up with Morning Wire. Stay tuned. We have the news you need to know.
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--:-- John Bickley: As the U.S. economy continues to struggle under record inflation, economists are bracing for what's been billed as the most important week of the summer, with critical information on a potential recession set to release this week.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Joining us now to break it all down is Daily Wire senior editor Cabot Phillips.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So for the last few months, there's been this looming fear that a recession is coming. And this week, we're going to find out just how legitimate those fears are.
--:-- John Bickley: On Thursday, the U.S. GDP report will come out. Remember, this basically tracks the total output of our economy and tells the story of our country's economic health.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: In the first quarter, the GDP shrank by 1.6 percent, and numerous signs indicate that it's once again shrunk this quarter.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Now, if that happens and Thursday's report shows a contraction, the U.S. will, by definition, be in a recession.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And if that happens, as you can imagine, it's going to have a massive impact as consumers historically act and spend very differently when they know the economy is in a recession.
--:-- John Bickley: So Thursday's report is going to be a big one.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Yeah, well, that's not all that's happening this week, right?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah. Tomorrow and Wednesday, there will also be a crucial set of meetings where the Federal Reserve will decide on the next interest rate hikes.
--:-- John Bickley: Back in June, they announced a 0.75% increase, which at the time was the largest single spike in 25 years.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And they're expected to once again do the same at this week's meeting, another 0.75. It's all part of the Fed's broader plan to slow the economy down, which sounds counterintuitive.
--:-- Georgia Howe: But remember, their goal is to try and stop inflation.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And they're hoping that by inflicting some short-term pain and essentially helping to create a recession, that they'll make things better in the long run by curbing inflation.
--:-- John Bickley: To that point, where do we stand on inflation?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So we've talked plenty on the show about how bad inflation has gotten. Last month, it hit 9.1%. That's a rate we hadn't seen in four decades.
--:-- Georgia Howe: But there are a few metrics that seem to be giving some reason for optimism.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: First, gas prices have dropped about 10% in the last month, though they still sit at a gallon nationwide.
--:-- Georgia Howe: We also seen some improvement on supply chain costs with the price of shipping goods from East Asia to the U dropping 11 last month.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: That certainly is good news.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Yeah, and also futures prices on a number of key food commodities like corn and wheat They dropped by over 20% since May.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So while those are all good things to hear, a 10% drop in gas for shipping still doesn't really feel like relief for most people, just given the fact that prices are still so much higher than they've been in years past.
--:-- John Bickley: As Sarah House, chief economist for Wells Fargo, puts it, peak or not, inflation is going to remain painful through the end of the year.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And there's also a bit of a boy who cried wolf situation here where President Biden and government economists have said for months now that inflation had reached its peak only for it to continue climbing higher.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So most Americans just aren't getting their hopes up right now, even though we are seeing some signs for optimism.
--:-- John Bickley: Yeah, it does feel like we've heard that message before and it just wasn't true.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Exactly.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Where does general sentiment stand right now for the American people? How do they feel about the economy?
--:-- John Bickley: Still not good at all. They're incredibly concerned on pretty much every front, and that has really baffled and frustrated the White House.
--:-- Georgia Howe: The president and his administration have continued to point to low unemployment, increased household savings, and the strong housing market as evidence that things are actually quite strong economically.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: But most people just aren't buying it.
--:-- John Bickley: For example, consumer sentiment ratings are currently at their lowest point since the 1980 recession.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And polling shows more Americans than at any point on record saying they're not optimistic about their personal finances in the coming year.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: As summer comes to an end and a new school year starts, those concerns are likely to be further exacerbated as families begin making decisions that'll impact their entire year.
--:-- John Bickley: Right, that makes sense.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Cabot, thanks for reporting.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Anytime.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's Daily Wire senior editor, Cabot Phillips.
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--:-- Georgia Howe: Coming up, the House passes a federal contraception rights bill.
--:-- John Bickley: You can get this show and all of the content you love wherever you are, all on the Daily Wire app.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Even if you're not a Daily Wire member, you'll be the first to know what's trending with mobile notifications for the latest news, and you'll get content from all of your favorite Daily Wire shows.
--:-- John Bickley: Download the Daily Wire app and keep up with the facts no matter where your day takes you.
--:-- Georgia Howe: A bill that establishes a federal right to contraceptives passed the House last week.
--:-- John Bickley: Despite receiving bipartisan support in the House, the bill has proved controversial with some religious groups.
--:-- Georgia Howe: These groups argue that some parts of the act conflict with a 1993 law, the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, that provides some exemptions on religious grounds.
--:-- John Bickley: Here to explain why Democrats initiated this legislation and why some faith groups are worried about some language in the new bill is Daily Wire culture reporter Megan Basham.
--:-- Megan Basham: So Megan, birth control is widely used and not generally seen as controversial. So what's behind this push to fortify contraception access? Why now?
--:-- John Bickley: Well, as we just talked about last week with that Respect for Marriage Act concerning same-sex unions, this bill also stems from that concurrence that Justice Clarence Thomas wrote to the Supreme Court's decision overturning Roe v. Wade.
--:-- Megan Basham: Now, in that concurrence, Thomas argued that other decisions that depended on the same right to privacy that Roe was founded on should be reconsidered.
--:-- John Bickley: Well, one of those cases is 1965's Griswold v. Connecticut, which established a right to contraception.
--:-- Megan Basham: Democrats are concerned that the justices may follow through on reconsidering those other decisions and that contraception may be on the chopping block next.
--:-- John Bickley: So this was New Jersey's Democratic Congressman Frank Pallone making that point before the House vote last week.
--:-- Megan Basham: This has opened the door for Republican legislators in states like Idaho, Louisiana, and Mississippi to try to ban certain contraceptive methods.
--:-- John Bickley: Republicans on the other hand say this is all just a smokescreen and no one is interested in restricting access to birth control.
--:-- Megan Basham: They point out that no other justice joined Thomas' concurrence and that the opinion Alito issued made it clear that the ruling was not to apply to any other precedents beyond Roe.
--:-- John Bickley: Now, as to the bill itself, Republicans say it contains measures that specifically and unconstitutionally target religious freedoms.
--:-- Megan Basham: And how would the bill affect religious freedom?
--:-- John Bickley: Well, the crux of the issue is that some private employers and healthcare providers have religious objections to birth control, especially birth control that can be used as abortifacients.
--:-- Megan Basham: And they want to have the right to not pay for it.
--:-- John Bickley: At the same time, states that outlaw abortion don't want some birth control that can cause abortions when prescribed before 10 weeks to be used to circumvent those new state laws.
--:-- Megan Basham: So this bill doesn't just make birth control legal in every state. It includes language that says that these religious objections impede patients from obtaining, and I'm just going to quote, their preferred method of contraception.
--:-- John Bickley: So this could be interpreted to mean all forms of contraception must be offered, even those known to have off-label uses as abortifacients.
--:-- Megan Basham: So critics are particularly concerned about that word impede because it specifically frames religious freedom of some individuals as an undue burden on other members of society.
--:-- John Bickley: Now, this is a debate that the Supreme Court has addressed before.
--:-- Megan Basham: In 2014, for example, the justices ruled that because of the Religious Freedom Restoration Act, known as RFRA, the Christian owners of Hobby Lobby did not have to abide by Obamacare mandates to offer employees coverage for contraception because it violated the tenets of their faith.
--:-- John Bickley: Now, the court made a similar ruling in 2020 in favor of the Catholic charity Little Sisters of the Poor on those same grounds.
--:-- Megan Basham: I spoke to Andrew Walker, a professor of theology and fellow with the Ethics and Public Policy Center, about this bill.
--:-- John Bickley: And he highlighted other objections religious Americans are likely to have with it.
--:-- Megan Basham: There are some, quite frankly, ambiguous sections in the bill. Section 4 talks about how no one can prohibit any limitation or requirement that impedes access to contraceptives.
--:-- John Bickley: And so that raises a question. Is an exclusion in employer health care plans to abortifacient contraceptives a violation of that section?
--:-- Megan Basham: Now, if the court ruled in favor of Hobby Lobby and Little Sisters of the Poor as recently as 2020, can we assume that they would strike down a law like this again?
--:-- John Bickley: Yeah, you know, I asked Walker that same question, and he felt that, yes, this law would likely run into a religious freedom wall, but that there could be some pretty ugly court battles in the meantime.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So the bill now moves to the Senate. What are its chances there?
--:-- Megan Basham: They look pretty slim because of those religious freedom questions.
--:-- John Bickley: Already, some moderate Republicans like Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska are signaling that they might not support it.
--:-- Megan Basham: So getting the 10 Republicans the bill will need to pass would be an uphill battle.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That said, there is some talk in the Senate that they may propose their own legislation enshrining a right to contraception.
--:-- Megan Basham: If so, then we'll have to see how that body handles these RIFRA questions.
--:-- John Bickley: All right, well, we'll keep an eye on that.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Megan, thanks so much for reporting.
--:-- Megan Basham: Yeah, my pleasure.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That was Daily Wire culture reporter Megan Basham.
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--:-- Georgia Howe: Last week on the campaign trail, GOP Congressman and New York gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin was attacked on stage while making a speech.
--:-- John Bickley: But it what happened next that drawing a lot of attention to the Empire State.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Within just hours the suspect was released from police custody on his own recognizance without bail, even though a weapon was used and he was charged with a felony.
--:-- John Bickley: He has since been arrested on federal charges.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Here to join us and talk about the attack and the bail reform laws that let the suspect go is columnist David Marcus.
--:-- David Marcus: Hey, Dave, so what went on here?
--:-- Georgia Howe: Good morning. So Zeldin was giving a speech, ironically, about bail reform.
--:-- David Marcus: When this man went on stage and thrust his right fist, on which he wore a self-defense keychain with two blades at Zeldin's throat, the congressman grabbed the arm.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Others jumped in to tackle the assailant, and he was arrested.
--:-- David Marcus: And as you said, just six hours later, he was back on the street, which has become a super familiar story for New Yorkers.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Right. So he was let go by New York, but two days later he was arrested and is currently in custody on federal charges.
--:-- David Marcus: What were those charges?
--:-- Georgia Howe: Well, he's been charged with the federal crime of attacking a member of Congress, you know, who are federal officials.
--:-- David Marcus: This was something that Zeldin had asked for, and I think there's a sense of relief that it happened, but also the knowledge that most New Yorkers aren't members of Congress who get this special protection.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So his initial release on state charges is still quite jarring.
--:-- David Marcus: Now, what is Zeldin's opponent, the current governor, Kathy Hochul, who's serving out former Governor Cuomo's term, saying about this whole incident?
--:-- Georgia Howe: It's interesting. She tweeted out the right thing that night, condemning the attack and all, but said something else.
--:-- David Marcus: She said she was, quote, relieved, unquote, that the suspect was in custody.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That was 945 that night. And just a few scant hours later, he wasn't in custody as a result of the bail reform laws she supports.
--:-- David Marcus: So these things do seem at odds with each other, and I think she'll be asked about it.
--:-- Georgia Howe: This comes at a time when crime is a big national issue, and certainly one in New York.
--:-- David Marcus: Could this shake up the race at all by putting it front and center?
--:-- Georgia Howe: Oh, it could, and Republicans are hoping for that.
--:-- David Marcus: But honestly, in New York, especially in the five boroughs where about half the population lives, crime is almost the only issue.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And that's because it is visceral, right? We really do feel it here.
--:-- David Marcus: For 30 years, this city was safe as houses, and now people are afraid to ride the subway.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I don't want to overstate it. It's not a Batman movie yet, but it's bad and by far the biggest election issue.
--:-- David Marcus: I appreciate the Batman reference.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Now, even some prominent Democrats in New York, including Mayor Eric Adams, oppose these bail reform laws.
--:-- David Marcus: Why haven't they been changed?
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's a great question, and it just seems like a lack of will.
--:-- David Marcus: Adams is not willing to go to the mattresses on this by, for example, supporting primaries against Democrat state legislators who won't fix this.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And that's true of others like Bronx Congressman Richie Torres.
--:-- David Marcus: In Adams' case in particular, this fits a broader narrative from critics that he talks a good game on public safety but then just doesn't do enough.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I'd also add with the governor's race well underway, the party doesn't want the Democrat mayor and the Democrat governor at war.
--:-- David Marcus: But don't be too surprised if Zeldin points out that difference between them early and often.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Yeah, that might be a wise move.
--:-- Georgia Howe: David, thanks for joining us.
--:-- David Marcus: That was Daily Wire contributor David Marcus.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Thanks for listening to Morning Wire.
--:-- John Bickley: We created this show to bring more balance to the national conversation.
--:-- Georgia Howe: If you love our show and you stand with our mission, please consider subscribing, leaving us a five-star rating, and most importantly, sharing our podcast with a friend.
--:-- John Bickley: That's all the time we've got this morning.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Thanks for waking up with us.
--:-- John Bickley: We'll be back tomorrow with the news you need to know.
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