--:-- [Upbeat music fades out]
--:-- John Bickley: Welcome to Morning Wire. I'm John Bickley, and I'm joined by my co-host Georgia Howe.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Thanks for waking up with us, folks.
--:-- John Bickley: We've got a lot to cover today, so let's dive right in. Republican Glenn Youngkin wins the Virginia governor's race, and that's got big implications for both parties moving forward.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's right, John. And we're going to break down the numbers and what they mean for both parties.
--:-- John Bickley: But first, let's talk about President Biden's poll numbers. They're plummeting, and it's not just Republicans who are unhappy with the direction of the country.
--:-- Georgia Howe: We'll look at which issues are driving the president's declining approval numbers and the broader implications.
--:-- John Bickley: And Senator Joe Manchin, you've heard his name often lately. He continued to stand in the way of President Biden's Build Back Better agenda this week.
--:-- Georgia Howe: We'll discuss where the politicians now stand on the bill.
--:-- John Bickley: Thanks for waking up with Morning Wire. Stay tuned.
--:-- [Short music break]
--:-- John Bickley: Last night, in a stunning result, Democrat Terry McAuliffe lost the Virginia governor's race to Republican Glenn Youngkin.
--:-- Georgia Howe: The election is considered by many to be a referendum on the Biden presidency, and as Vice President Kamala Harris acknowledged ahead of it, a bellwether for future elections.
--:-- John Bickley: Because you see, what happens in Virginia will in large part determine what happens in 2022, 2024, and on.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Here to walk us through the results is Daily Wire's Cabot Phillips.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Thanks for having me on the show.
--:-- John Bickley: So Cabot, just how big of an upset is this?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: This is huge. There's no other way of putting it. Just one year ago, Democrats won Virginia by 10 points. It hasn't gone blue in a presidential race since 2004.
--:-- Georgia Howe: This isn't a swing state we're talking about, or at least it hasn't been for the past two decades.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: But clearly something big has changed in Virginia. Youngkin dominated in rural counties as expected, but the real story was his performance in the suburbs.
--:-- Georgia Howe: One CBS exit poll had him winning with suburban voters 53-47, and that held truth throughout the evening.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: For example, look at Chesterfield County, right outside the capital of Richmond. A year ago, it was plus seven for Biden. Last night, it was plus 10 for Youngkin.
--:-- Georgia Howe: It was the same story over in Virginia Beach City. Biden won there by five points in 2020. Last night, Youngkin won by almost 20 points.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And that was kind of the story in counties across the state where Youngkin really overperformed and Democrats underperformed.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So a massive swing in many areas.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah. How did Youngkin do this? How do you pull it off?
--:-- Georgia Howe: Well, there were two key factors in the win.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: First, in a state like Virginia that leans Democrat, for a Republican to win, you have to turn out the entire base if you're going to have any shot.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Right. And it looks like he did just that.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Youngkin dominated in Republican strongholds across the state. And clearly held on to Trump voters entirely.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And second, he won over independents.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: A lot of times it's hard for a candidate to motivate their base without turning off voters in the middle, but Youngkin did. That's clear.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Yeah, when you look at the data from places like Prince William County right outside of D.C., they went for Biden by 27 points in 2020.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Last night, Democrats only won there by five points.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So it wasn't just rural counties where turnout was super high. It was also traditionally more moderate counties where Republicans performed much better than expected.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And it wasn't just the governor's race that was an upset.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Tell us more there.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah, Republican Jason Meares won the attorney general race and Republican Winsome Sears won the lieutenant governor's election.
--:-- Georgia Howe: She'll actually now be the first woman of color to ever hold office statewide in Virginia.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So this was a clean sweep across the board for Republicans.
--:-- Georgia Howe: What do we know about the specific issues that ended up swinging this for Republicans?
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Yeah, right now, it looks like this race came down to two things, education and the economy.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's nothing new. It's what we've been saying all along.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Those were the top issues for voters in polling.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And according to exit polls, that's what brought a lot of people out for Youngkin.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Suburban voters, who again were crucial in last night's win, overwhelmingly listed education as their top issue.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And they turned out in force for Republicans.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: We saw anecdotal evidence throughout the day of parents saying in interviews that they voted for Biden in 2020, but went for Youngkin because they wanted a say in their kid's education or they went for Youngkin because they opposed critical race theory in schools.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And as the numbers started to come in last night, it was clear that those weren't just anecdotal incidents.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: They seemed to indicate a broader trend.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Look, we've covered education issues multiple times on this show and we actually provided some exclusive reporting specifically on Loudoun County.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: How did the vote turn out there?
--:-- Georgia Howe: Yeah, Loudoun County was the epicenter of the education debate.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Like you said, specifically on transgender policies and critical race theory in schools.
--:-- Georgia Howe: The Daily Wire had some really groundbreaking investigative reporting about what was going on there.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And those issues clearly had an impact on the race.
--:-- Georgia Howe: In 2020, Democrats won Loudoun by 24 points.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Last night, that advantage was cut to just 10.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So big difference in Loudoun County, which a lot of people had their eyes on.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: So looking ahead, what does this all mean?
--:-- Georgia Howe: It means Democrats nationwide are feeling pretty nervous about their chances in 2022.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: As you mentioned, this race was widely considered a referendum on Democrats more broadly, and that's clearly bad news for them.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Virginia gives Republican hopefuls nationwide a sort of blueprint for success.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: In this case, it shows that education and the economy appear to be winning issues with swing voters for Republicans.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And there's also the role of Trump in all this.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Look, this was the first election in five years where Democrats haven't been able to motivate their base by saying a vote for us is a vote against Trump.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That message did work for a lot of independents in the past, especially suburban women.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: But without him as a rallying cry for Democrats to vote against, enthusiasm was clearly down.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And when you add in enthusiasm from Republicans, particularly over education, you've got what appears to be a losing combination for Democrats.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: And that matters moving forward.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Well, Cabot, thanks for the reporting.
--:-- Cabot Phillips: Anytime.
--:-- [Short music break]
--:-- John Bickley: Up next, some troubling numbers for the Biden administration.
--:-- Georgia Howe: You can get this show and all of the content you love wherever you are, all on the Daily Wire app.
--:-- John Bickley: Even if you're not a Daily Wire member, you'll be the first to know what's trending with mobile notifications for the latest news, and you'll get content from all your favorite Daily Wire shows.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Download the Daily Wire app and keep up with the facts no matter where your day takes you.
--:-- John Bickley: New polling numbers seem to indicate that things are going from bad to worse for President Biden, with the Republican Party leading by double digits across a vast number of crucial issues for voters.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Here to tell us more is Daily Wire's Ian Howarth.
--:-- Ian Howarth: Thanks for having me on the show.
--:-- John Bickley: So Ian, Virginians just went to the polls. First tell us how these numbers played into that race.
--:-- Ian Howarth: Well, the reason we've all been watching the gubernatorial race in Virginia is because this was the first electoral referendum on Joe Biden's presidency.
--:-- Georgia Howe: One year after last year's election and one year to go until the 2022 midterms, the Virginia race is going to tell us how Democrats, Republicans, and independents are judging Biden's performance.
--:-- Ian Howarth: And if recent polling is anything to go on, alarm bells are going to be ringing as we approach 2022.
--:-- John Bickley: So a significant decline in confidence in the president. What are some of the key numbers here?
--:-- Ian Howarth: Well, looking first at basic approval ratings, a majority of Americans now disapprove of Biden's job performance.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Based on the latest national NBC poll, 54% disapprove of Biden's performance with only 42% approving.
--:-- Ian Howarth: This marks a pretty massive drop since April when Biden was in positive territory.
--:-- Georgia Howe: The tipping point looks to have happened in August when 49% approved and 48% disapproved.
--:-- Ian Howarth: And this coincided with the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, right?
--:-- Georgia Howe: Yes, and this and other concerns are showing up in other polling numbers, with a whopping 71% of Americans saying that the country is heading in the wrong direction under Biden.
--:-- Ian Howarth: That's an 8% increase since August.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And on the issues, Biden is really struggling.
--:-- Ian Howarth: For example, 40% approve and 57% disapprove of Biden's handling of the economy.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Based on these polls, more Americans think that the Republican Party is better suited than the Democratic Party when it comes to a wide range of important issues.
--:-- Ian Howarth: Americans give Republicans double-digit leads when it comes to who can better handle border security, inflation, crime, national security, and generally getting things done, an actual category in the poll.
--:-- Georgia Howe: There are some issues that Biden and the Democratic Party still lead, including education, COVID, and climate change, but we've even seen some pretty significant drops there.
--:-- Ian Howarth: And in terms of Biden's dropping popularity, this includes among Democrats, correct?
--:-- Georgia Howe: Yes, almost half of Democrats think that the country is on the wrong tracks.
--:-- Ian Howarth: So not only is Biden losing the potential support of moderates, he's losing the support of his own base.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And then there are even deeper concerns when it comes to the basic high-level requirements of a commander-in-chief.
--:-- Ian Howarth: Just 37% say he has the ability right now to handle a crisis versus nearly a majority who say he does not.
--:-- Georgia Howe: 37% also say he's competent and effective as president.
--:-- Ian Howarth: 50% disagree with that description.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And this isn't where the bad polling ended for Biden.
--:-- Ian Howarth: A new ABC Ipsos poll on Sunday found that Democrats are failing to sell their own legislation to the American public, with about 7 in 10 saying they know just some or little to nothing about what's in both spending packages jamming up Congress right now.
--:-- Georgia Howe: You know, the Democratic Party and the media were heavily focused on polling data when Donald Trump was president.
--:-- Ian Howarth: Has Biden reacted to these numbers?
--:-- Georgia Howe: Yeah, he did, but only to dismiss their importance.
--:-- Ian Howarth: The polls are going to go up and down and up and down. Well, look, this is, look at every other president.
--:-- Georgia Howe: It's the same thing that's happened, but that's not why I ran.
--:-- Ian Howarth: I didn't run to determine how well I'm going to do in the polls.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And while Biden is correct in saying that polls do go up and down by their very nature, this is ignoring the fact that Biden's approval rating is far lower than many of his predecessors at this stage of his presidency.
--:-- Ian Howarth: And also that a big part of Biden's sales pitch during his campaign was his popularity.
--:-- Georgia Howe: With this popularity clearly declining and at rapid rates, Democrats are going to be very concerned as we approach the midterms and 2024, especially since issues like inflation and illegal immigration don't look like they're going to be improving anytime soon.
--:-- Ian Howarth: These are tough numbers for the president here.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Yeah, they are. Thanks for the update, Ian.
--:-- Ian Howarth: My pleasure.
--:-- [Short music break]
--:-- John Bickley: President Biden's hopes of pushing through his agenda by passing the Build Back Better Act appear to have stalled after Senator Joe Manchin reiterated his concerns over the size and cost of the bill.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Here to discuss where the politicians now stand on the bill is Daily Wire reporter Ben Johnson.
--:-- Ben Johnson: Thanks for having me on the show.
--:-- John Bickley: So Ben Manchin is one of two critical Senate votes the president needs to pass the reconciliation package.
--:-- Ben Johnson: And he took the unusual step this week of holding a press conference where he laid out where he stands on the Build Back Better plan.
--:-- Georgia Howe: What did he say?
--:-- Ben Johnson: Officially, he's still making up his mind, but he raised the same objections he's had to the bill all along.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That will add to the national debt, that it will create new social welfare entitlements when programs West Virginians rely on, like Medicare and Social Security, face insolvency in just a few years.
--:-- Ben Johnson: And that it could really be as transformative to the U.S. economy as President Biden says.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I will not support a reconciliation package that expands social programs and irresponsibly adds to our $29 trillion in national debt that no one seems to really care about or even talk about.
--:-- Ben Johnson: Manchin said the president's holding up a bill most Americans support, the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure framework.
--:-- Georgia Howe: And he called on Congress to vote on that bill instead of demanding it be passed in tandem with his reconciliation package.
--:-- Ben Johnson: So he's made clear that he wants these two bills to be considered separately.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's right. White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki famously said that the cost of the Build Back Better bill would be zero.
--:-- Ben Johnson: Why does Senator Manchin doubt that?
--:-- Georgia Howe: Manchin has said the bill contains a tangle of shell games and budget gimmicks.
--:-- Ben Johnson: Gimmicks? What exactly is he talking about there?
--:-- Georgia Howe: Well, first of all, the White House advertises the cost as $1.75 trillion, but independent analysts say the bill will actually cost somewhere between $3.8 and $4 trillion.
--:-- Ben Johnson: Second of all, the Congressional Budget Office claims the White House is doubling the amount of revenue it will raise through harsher IRS tax enforcement.
--:-- Georgia Howe: In one particularly cynical move, the bill sets the goal of abolishing the state and local tax cap or salt tax, but then it counts the revenue raised by the salt tax toward the cost of the bill.
--:-- Ben Johnson: The Penn Warden budget model estimates that when all's said and done, the bill will pay for about half of its total cost, and it will add more than $2 trillion to the national debt.
--:-- Georgia Howe: So not zero, at least according to these analyses?
--:-- Ben Johnson: No, not at all.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Okay, if those are his concerns, what are his fellow Democrats doing to address them?
--:-- Ben Johnson: Well, President Biden didn't address Senator Manchin's comments when he was questioned about them yesterday in Scotland.
--:-- Georgia Howe: But Jen Psaki released a statement defending the administration's accounting methods and saying that 17 Nobel Prize-winning economists believe the bill will reduce inflation by cutting the cost people pay for things like child care.
--:-- Ben Johnson: On the other hand, most economists believe pumping trillions more dollars into the economy will only worsen already rising inflation.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Meanwhile, progressives have decided to publicly shame Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema.
--:-- Ben Johnson: Congresswoman Cori Bush, who describes herself as a democratic socialist, issued a press release Monday saying, quote, Joe Manchin's opposition to the Build Back Better Act is anti-black, anti-child, anti-woman, and anti-immigrant.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's definitely a counterintuitive way of convincing someone to support you.
--:-- Ben Johnson: Yeah, thanks for that report, Ben.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Anytime.
--:-- [Closing music starts]
--:-- John Bickley: Those are our big stories for the day.
--:-- Georgia Howe: If you liked this episode and are interested in hearing more, subscribe to Morning Wire on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you're listening, and give us a five-star review.
--:-- John Bickley: That's all the time we've got this morning. Thanks for waking up with us.
--:-- Georgia Howe: We'll be back tomorrow with the news you need to know.
--:-- John Bickley: If you liked this podcast, get the Morning Wire newsletter delivered straight to your inbox when you join at dailywire.com slash subscribe.
--:-- [Closing music continues]
