What's Behind Europe’s Surge to the Right? | Sunday Extra

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John Bickley: Europe is seeing a dramatic shift rightward with a series of parliamentary elections posting major gains for conservative and populist parties at the expense of the left-leaning elites. In this episode, we talk with a foreign policy expert about what's driving Europe right and what it means here in the U.S.

John Bickley: I'm Daily Wire editor-in-chief John Bickley. It's Sunday, June 16th, and this is an extra edition of Morning Wire. Joining us now to discuss the move right in Europe is Niall Gardner, director of the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom at the Heritage Foundation.

Niall Gardner: Thank you so much for having me on the show.

John Bickley: So we've seen conservative and populist parties in several European countries gain support among voters in many instances by surprisingly large numbers. And it's prompted calls for snap elections. First, what has unfolded since Sunday?

Niall Gardner: Well, I think the results released on Sunday night are nothing less than a political earthquake in Europe. We have seen an emphatic rejection of socialist ruling elites across much of Europe. We have seen a resounding set of victories for partners on the right in many European countries. And we've seen the utter humiliation of big European figures such as Emmanuel Macron, president of France, Olaf Scholz, the chancellor of Germany, and huge gains for conservative political parties. And so in every respect, I think these elections have been a real game changer and have sent a very clear message to Europe's ruling elites that their time is coming to an end.

John Bickley: Now, we saw a snap election called by Macron. We've also had an early election called a few weeks ago in the UK. What's going on there?

Niall Gardner: So in France, Macron's political party received only around 15 percent of the vote in the European parliamentary elections, a massive humiliation really for Macron's ruling party. And Macron therefore decided to call a snap parliamentary election. It'll be held in two rounds, late June, early July. And these elections actually could go very badly potentially for Macron, a huge gamble, a huge risk by the French president and he could end up as a lame duck president for the remainder of his term which stretches until 2027 if he doesn't do well or his party doesn't do well actually in these parliamentary elections. So a high-risk gambit of course by Macron.

John Bickley: In the UK the British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called an early general election to be held on July the 4th. The Conservatives are trailing the opposition Labour Party very heavily in the polls. Also, of course, a high-risk move by Rishi Sunak. He's come under a lot of criticism for calling this early election. And the UK is actually one of the only parts in Europe where conservatives are actually in real trouble. And that's probably largely the result of having been in power for 14 years and failing to deliver on a lot of the promises made by successive conservative governments. So a rather different situation in the UK compared to most of the rest of Europe, where we are seeing conservative parties really gaining a great deal of ground, actually.

Niall Gardner: But would you argue that this dissatisfaction, a lot of it's from the right in the UK?

John Bickley: Yeah, I think that a large part of the dissatisfaction with Rishi Sunak is that he is not being conservative enough as prime minister. And so we've seen the rise of Reform, a party headed by Nigel Farage. And Reform is now polling at around 15 to even 20 percent of the vote. These are largely conservative voters who have switched to Reform. So the ruling conservatives actually face a major challenge from Reform on the right, but also, of course, the biggest challenge from the Labour Party on the left. But the right in the UK is split right down the middle. And that will be a big factor in allowing most likely the socialists to take power on July the 4th.

Niall Gardner: Who are some of the big names and parties that are really rising up in this rise of the right in Europe?

John Bickley: So the biggest winner actually from these European elections has been, I think, Giorgio Maloney in Italy, whose Brothers of Italy party did extremely well in the European elections, I think quadrupling their level of support. And Maloney has emerged, I think, as a very, very powerful leader in Europe. In France, of course, with Le Pen, her political party took over 30% of the vote, double the size of the vote for Emmanuel Macron's party. And so national rally in France could be potentially, in the snap parliamentary elections, the biggest political party in France as a result. So certainly Marine Le Pen has emerged as a very big winner. She will likely face off against Macron in the French presidential race 2027. And if that election were to be held today, she would probably emerge as the winner.

Niall Gardner: And what about in Germany? What are some of the trends we're seeing there and some of the figures that are starting to define those trends?

John Bickley: Yeah so Germany is significant as well that the ruling socialists headed by Olaf Scholz have done very badly And so they pulled in only I think around 14 percent of the vote Also, the Green Party did very, very badly. They're the main allies of the socialists. They pulled in around 12 percent of the vote. And on the right, the Christian Democrats did very well, winning nearly a third of the vote. But also the AFD political party, which in Germany are designated as hard right, they actually pulled in, I think, close to around 20 percent of the European vote, which was a big, big result for them. Now, I would say that AFD, of course, are quite different to many of the other right-wing parties in Europe. And they're somewhat isolated, I would say, from the main political groupings in the European Parliament. And significantly, Marine Le Pen actually removed the AFD from her political grouping, the identity and democracy group within the European Parliament. So there are big differences among parties on the right within Europe. But undoubtedly, the reality is in Germany that Germany is moving rightwards. The left is actually losing very heavily in Germany. And I would expect to see next year with the national elections in Germany, a conservative CDU led government, Christian Democratic Union led government to take power. And it's hard to see how the socialists are going to survive with the national elections in Germany next year.

Niall Gardner: Well, as you noted, they're not a uniform bunch on the right necessarily, but there are a lot of unifying characteristics of most of these parties. Le Pen says it's a feeling of, quote, alienation driving a lot of these voters to support these parties. What would you say are some of the unifying ideas and policies?

John Bickley: That's a very good question. I would say that the number one issue in the European parliamentary elections was really the issue of mass migration, cultural identity, a fear among many in Europe that Europe is taking in far too many migrants and has taken in too many migrants over the course of the last two decades. This election was a fundamental rejection of mass migration and open borders. All of the parties on the right who gained heavily campaigned on a platform on secure borders, limiting the flow of migrants into their countries, cracking down on migrant crime and also fighting against Islamification in Europe. Also are high on the agenda environmental issues as well and a rejection of net zero ideology and nearly all of the political parties on the right that won big in the European parliamentary elections fought against net zero, fought against what they believed as far left ideological dogma dictating hugely expensive green policies. I think a third factor was rising Euroscepticism and a belief among many in Europe that the European Union has become too centralised And so most of the political parties on the right that were successful in this election campaigned against the idea of Eurofederalism and against giving the EU and the European Commission in particular more power

Niall Gardner: Speaking of Brexit, as you mentioned, Nigel Farage, the architect of Brexit and a pro-Trump ally, he's decided to run for parliament under the Reform Party. How will his entrance into the political arena affect the race?

John Bickley: Yes, as you point out, Nigel Farage jumped into the race as the leader of the Reform Party just last week. I think it's a significant game changer in the sense that Farage's joining the race, heading the Reform Political Party, encourages many more Conservative voters to switch to reform. I think no doubt about it, the Conservatives are going to lose a lot more seats as a result of Farage's decision here. I think also, secondly, Nigel Farage has a good chance of winning a parliamentary seat. He's running in the constituency of Clacton, which is a strongly Eurosceptic pro-Brexit area. And if Farage ends up in Parliament, I think he'll be a very important, influential figure. What this doesn't change, though, in terms of the big picture is the fact that reform, even with 15 to 20 percent of the vote, will likely end up only with a few seats in Parliament because of the first past the post-political system. And so the Conservatives will remain the biggest party on the right in the UK in terms of parliamentary seats, regardless of how well reform actually performs in terms of percentage of the vote, because reform simply doesn't have enough firepower to win a large number of MPs under the parliamentary system. So I expect that reform, if they do get a few MPs in Parliament, will be closely aligned with the Conservatives in terms of how they vote in the next parliament.

Niall Gardner: Final question. What aspect of these trends in Europe do you feel are important for an American audience to understand?

John Bickley: You know, from a U.S. perspective, I think the European election results are going to make the Biden White House very nervous because some of the big issues that successful parties on the right in Europe campaigned on are the same issues that American voters are going to be voting on in November. And the European electorate in fact rejected the kind of, you know, woke left wing elitism that has dominated Europe in recent decades. And this has important implications, I think, for the United States as well. And many American voters share European voters concerns over mass migration, open borders, rising crime, higher cost of living. And so what happens in Europe, I think is important what happens in the US as well.

Niall Gardner: Well, now, thank you so much for joining us and giving us your analysis and perspective.

John Bickley: My pleasure. Many thanks for having me on the show.

Niall Gardner: That was Niall Gardner, director of the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom at the Heritage Foundation. And this has been an extra edition of Morning Wire.