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--:-- John Bickley: Welcome to Morning Wire, I'm John Bickley, Editor-in-Chief of The Daily Wire, and I'm here with my co-host Georgia Howe. It's September 1st, and we're bringing you a special Sunday edition of the show.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Hey guys, it's producer Brandon here. Before we dive in, I want to give a quick shoutout to our sponsor, Balance of Nature. They offer whole food ingredients in a convenient capsule form, and right now, you can get 35% off your first order with promo code WIRE.
--:-- John Bickley: Thanks, Brandon. Alright, let's get to our guest today. We're joined by Brent Buchanan, founder and president of Signal Polling Group. Brent, thanks for coming on the show.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Hey, glad to be back.
--:-- John Bickley: Now, you've said there's a polling data point that most news outlets are failing to notice. That's the difference between how Kamala Harris is performing against Donald Trump versus how Biden and Clinton were doing against him at the same points in their campaigns. Can you unpack that for us?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, history is an important context piece when you're thinking about political campaigns. And if we go back and look at where the presidential race stood, because this is the third time Donald Trump's been on the ballot, 2016, 2020, and now 2024. And we have to look back and see where was Clinton at that time, where was Biden at that time, and where is Harris at that time.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's really interesting. So, you're saying that Harris is not doing as well as Biden and Clinton were at this point in their campaigns?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: That's right. And I think we've just been in this euphoria as Republicans thinking that, look, Donald Trump is going to destroy Joe Biden. He's ahead by five points in the polls, that it's not taking into account the reality of history.
--:-- John Bickley: That's a great point. And I think a lot of people are looking at these polls and saying, "Oh, Trump is ahead, he's going to win." But you're saying that's not necessarily the case.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Exactly. And so once Harris shored up several of Biden's deficiencies with certain voter groups, it still doesn't get her anywhere near where Biden and Clinton were polling at this point in August.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I see. So, you're saying that Harris is not doing as well as Biden and Clinton were at this point in their campaigns, and that's a concern for her.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, that's right. And I'll also make this point, too, that August is a really bad polling month for Republicans. And so if you look at pretty much any race for Congress, Senate, President, doesn't matter. For some reason, Republicans look worse in August than they do closer to Election Day.
--:-- John Bickley: That's a great point. I've heard that before. So, what kind of reversal have we seen in the past in terms of how a Republican is doing at this point versus the election?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Well, Donald Trump was down by, I think, 7.1 points in the averages at this point in 2020. And that's, again, a national percentage, which we know there's not a national vote. But if we compare that to the actual national vote, Biden only won by 4.5 percent. So that's a 2.6 percent difference between where Joe Biden was polling and where he ended up.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's a big difference. So, you're saying that Trump was down by 7.1 points at this point in 2020, but he ended up winning by 4.5 points.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: That's right. And right now, the best case scenario for Kamala Harris, if you look at the 538 average, which I think is exaggerated, it has her at three and a half. So that would put her at under or right at one point ahead of Trump, which is nowhere near enough to win.
--:-- John Bickley: Can you explain that for us? Why is that not large enough of a gap for a Democrat to win?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, I mean, just think back to 2020. And if Joe Biden's at 4.5% nationally on the popular vote, and he only won four states by a cumulative 70,000 votes, that is a really, really narrow, thin victory. And if you extrapolate being less than 4.5% ahead as the Democrat, you start to see that the margins within the state widen.
--:-- Georgia Howe: I see. So, you're saying that even if Harris is ahead by one point, it's not enough to win.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: That's right. And I give you an example I just went through a national survey that came out yesterday by YouGov which in my mind has a questionable record. They had Harris up by one this week. And what's funny is this exact same poll at Biden's worst point in mid-July had Biden and Trump tied, and then they did a Harris-Trump ballot, and that was tied also.
--:-- John Bickley: That's interesting. So, you're saying that this poll is questionable, but it's still showing Harris ahead by one point.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, that's right. And if you go back and look, that's where you've got this big difference with even just this one poll. And if you want, I can share some data about Arizona, about a poll that just came out that I think goes into her problems even better with like independents, Hispanics, and young voters.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Yeah, we'd love to hear that.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: So in 2020, Arizona was one of those states that flipped from Trump to Biden. And so Biden only won it by four tenths of a point. And if you look back at the polling average for that state at this point in 2020, Biden was ahead by three.
--:-- John Bickley: That's a big difference.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Now, in May, those averages had Trump up by five this year, and he's still up by one, which, as you can see, is four points better than Biden plus three at that point. And I've got a friend who runs a polling shop there, and they put out a poll that had Biden up by four four years ago. They just released a poll yesterday that had Trump up by three.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's interesting. So, you're saying that Trump is doing better in Arizona than Biden was at this point in 2020.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: That's right. And when you go look at what changed between their last poll, Harris is doing 15 points better with independents than Biden was doing in Arizona. She's doing 14 points better with Hispanics, 13 points better with young voters. I mean, those are pretty noticeable percentage differences.
--:-- John Bickley: That's a big difference. So, you're saying that Harris is doing better with independents, Hispanics, and young voters than Biden was at this point in 2020.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: That's right. But if you compare this to 2020 Arizona, she's actually doing four points worse with independents than Biden did. She's doing 12 points worse with Hispanics and 20 points worse with young voters.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's a big difference. So, you're saying that Harris is not doing as well as Biden was with these key voter groups.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: That's right. And then she's helped, but she still hasn't even gotten to the Biden 2020 point with these same voter groups.
--:-- John Bickley: I see. So, you're saying that Harris is not doing as well as Biden was with these key voter groups, and that's a concern for her.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, that's right.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Now, Jack Smith has refiled charges against Trump. Democrats are always charged up about the lawfare attacks on Trump. But you say there's a miscalculation about this on the left. How so?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: I look at the Republican primary last summer. And, you know, Ron DeSantis was climbing. Trump was under 50 percent with Republican primary voters. And then the first and second indictments against Donald Trump drop and Donald Trump takes off.
--:-- John Bickley: That's interesting. So, you're saying that the indictments against Trump actually helped him in the Republican primary.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, I think that's what happened. And I kind of look at Donald Trump as Superman and kryptonite, where everybody thinks that if you put this rock from his planet Krypton on Superman, and it takes away his powers, but somehow he actually gains powers when he's around this kryptonite.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's a great analogy.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: And this is what I think Democrats just haven't figured out, is that there's a segment of voters, especially disaffected voters, that say there's got to be a reason they're going after this guy, and it probably means I should be for this guy and not for the man, the establishment, why ever they're coming after this person.
--:-- John Bickley: That's a great point. I think a lot of people are looking at this and saying, "Oh, Trump is being attacked, he must be doing something wrong." But you're saying that's not necessarily the case.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, that's right.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Now, there's been a lot of back and forth between the Trump and Harris campaigns over the presidential debates. Trump agreed to at least three, but Harris is sticking to just the one hosted by ABC on September 10th. Who do you think could benefit more from the debate?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Debates are zero-sum games. They are high-risk plays where the best case scenario for you is that you walk out unscathed. Nobody walks out of a debate looking better than they walked in. They just avoid looking worse.
--:-- John Bickley: That's a great point. I think a lot of people are looking at this and saying, "Oh, debates are going to be a big deal." But you're saying that's not necessarily the case.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: And I think Joe Biden kind of proved that in the debate where he just fell apart. And there's a reason that Kamala Harris only wants one debate and she wants it as far away from the election date as possible because she's going to have to play cleanup afterwards.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's a great point. So, you're saying that Harris is trying to avoid debates because she's worried about how she'll come across.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, that's right. And I hate to sound like a historian, but go look at what she did in the 2020 Democratic primary debates. I mean, she was cringe. She said things that I wish Trump would just play the policy position she took in her 2020 Democratic presidential primary debates.
--:-- John Bickley: That's a great point. I think a lot of people are looking at this and saying, "Oh, Harris is a great debater." But you're saying that's not necessarily the case.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: I mean, she's not a good debater. She's not good off script or off teleprompter. So it's, I would say, a higher risk issue for Kamala compared to Trump, because Trump can go in there and say something that would be off the wall and people would say, well, that's just Donald Trump.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's a great point. So, you're saying that Trump is more likely to benefit from the debate than Harris.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, that's right.
--:-- John Bickley: Now, the economy and immigration continue to be the biggest priorities for voters. We've seen recent polling finding that about 90% of Americans think owning a home is essential to their vision of the future, but then only about 10% think that's actually achievable at this point. How would the economy impact this election?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Well, there a lot of people that are struggling out there. I think you referencing the Wall Street Journal study and article. And if you read that story, there's a really great story about a family in this article, which is they bought a home. It was a stretch, but it was within reach. And then food prices started going up. Energy costs went up. Insurance costs doubled. And they're deciding if they have to sell the house or not.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's a great point. So, you're saying that the economy is a big issue for voters, and that's going to impact this election.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, that's right. And I think that's what these, especially Republican campaigns, are going to need to capitalize on is stop saying the economy's bad and inflation sucks and tell a story and then tell what you're going to do to create an optimistic future to address that.
--:-- John Bickley: That's a great point. I think a lot of people are looking at this and saying, "Oh, the economy is a big issue." But you're saying that's not just about the numbers, it's about the people and the stories behind them.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, that's right.
--:-- Georgia Howe: One of the biggest developments in the last week is RFK Jr. endorsing Trump. How does that change the race, particularly in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah. Last fall, we had RFK Jr. at like 12% nationally in our polls. And even back then, we said, watch him fall, because it's a trend that happens in every election where a somewhat legitimate independent candidate gets in. And then our two-party mindset eventually forces people to say, I don't want to throw away my vote.
--:-- John Bickley: That's a great point. So, you're saying that RFK Jr. is not a serious candidate, and that's going to impact the election.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, that's right. And when Joe Biden was still the nominee, RFK dropped down to, say, 8% or so. But if you looked at that sample of voters, there were a lot of young voters, progressives, people that you knew for a fact would never vote for Donald Trump. But they were just so disaffected by Joe Biden that they were picking RFK Jr. on a survey.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's a great point. So, you're saying that RFK Jr. was attracting a lot of young voters and progressives who were disaffected with Biden.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: And when Harris became the nominee, it dropped RFK even further. And what I think it actually did was clarify who is actually an RFK Jr. voter and could be winnable. And then when you looked at that segment of voters, which is only four or five percent of the electorate, that by two to one, they would prefer Trump over Harris if forced into the option.
--:-- John Bickley: That's a great point. So, you're saying that RFK Jr.'s endorsement of Trump is going to impact the election, particularly in battleground states.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, that's right. And I think we're going to start to see post-Labor Day these polls where RFK is coming off the ballot because like on Tuesday, he was just officially taken off the ballot in Pennsylvania. And I think you're going to start to see Donald Trump benefit from that significantly more than Kamala Harris in an estate like Pennsylvania that somebody is going to win by a point.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's a great point. So, you're saying that RFK Jr.'s endorsement of Trump is going to benefit Trump in Pennsylvania.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, that's right.
--:-- John Bickley: Officials in Michigan and Wisconsin say they will not remove RFK from the ballot. What impact could that have?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: I am in the field right now on a survey in a district in Michigan, not the whole state. And he's actually not running as an independent there. He's running under the natural law party. And I just looked at the partials this morning, and he's getting less than 1% within this district.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's a great point. So, you're saying that RFK Jr. is not doing well in Michigan.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, that's right. And I think voters are smart enough to know that he has come off the ballot and is not running because that number was definitely not 1% in the last survey.
--:-- John Bickley: That's a great point. So, you're saying that voters are not fooled by RFK Jr.'s attempt to stay on the ballot in Michigan.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, that's right.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Now, some recent polling out of North Carolina spells potential trouble for Republicans. How do you see the state of play in North Carolina for Trump versus Harris?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, North Carolina is a fascinating state. It's a lot more rural than people give it credit for. The Raleigh area is that kind of research triangle is highly educated and doesn't do well for Republicans. But once you really get outside of that Raleigh media market, it's a significantly more competitive state.
--:-- John Bickley: That's a great point. So, you're saying that North Carolina is a tough state for Republicans.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, that's right. And for some reason, it doesn't work there for a long time. Republicans don't come home to the Republican candidate until the very end. And so if you're within striking distance as a Republican candidate in North Carolina, you usually end up winning on election day because for some reason, those Republican voters aren't answering polls or saying they're undecided.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's a great point. So, you're saying that Republicans are not doing well in North Carolina, but they can still win if they're within striking distance.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, that's right.
--:-- John Bickley: What about Georgia? How are things shaping up in Georgia?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: You know, with them having two Democratic state senators and Biden barely winning, I think, by like 15 or 16,000 votes in 2020, that it looks really competitive. But what, let's go back to history, what nobody is talking about is in 2020, the Secretary of State mailed absentee ballot applications to everybody in the state. And that's not happened since then.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's a great point. So, you're saying that the absentee ballot applications in 2020 helped Biden win Georgia.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, that's right. And in 2022, Governor Brian Kemp won by seven and a half points being outspent by superstar Stacey Abrams as the Democratic nominee. So while I believe Georgia went from 100 percent Trump win to could be competitive, I would not put it in the toss up category.
--:-- John Bickley: That's a great point. So, you're saying that Georgia is still a Republican state, but it's getting more competitive.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, that's right.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Final question, turning to Congress here. Democrats are increasingly hopeful that Harris could give them a chance to win a House majority. Are they right to be optimistic about that?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: It's better than having Biden at the top of the ticket. But when you go look at these individual districts, it's hard to beat an incumbent. And Democrats are going to have to beat Republican incumbents in order to win a majority.
--:-- John Bickley: That's a great point. So, you're saying that Democrats are going to have a tough time winning a House majority.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, that's right. And if you look at where the Democrats are having to spend money, they're spending 80% of their money defending their existing seats. And Republicans are spending 80% of their money going after Democrat incumbents.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's a great point. So, you're saying that Democrats are going to have to spend a lot of money to defend their seats.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, that's right.
--:-- John Bickley: On the flip side, the Republicans have been very optimistic about the Senate and gaining a majority there. How are those races lining up?
--:-- Brent Buchanan: With Joe Manchin's retirement in West Virginia, it automatically becomes a 50-50 Senate. So therefore, whoever's the vice president is the tiebreaker in deciding who runs the chamber.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's a great point. So, you're saying that the Senate is a toss-up.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, that's right. And if you go look at Montana, Democrat incumbent John Tester is just falling apart. I don't think there's any way for Democrats to save him. So that puts Republicans at 51.
--:-- John Bickley: That's a great point. So, you're saying that Republicans are likely to win the Senate.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, that's right. A poll came out on Tuesday, a very reputable poll came out on Tuesday that showed the Senate race in Maryland tied at 46-46. And that's a state where they also showed Kamala Harris winning by 32 points. So when you look at the opportunities, I think Montana gets it to 51. I think Maryland is its wild card. And then you have Ohio, which the Democrats have spent $60 million in Ohio, the Republican up until last week had spent $1 million. And so I think you're going to start to see that race move to a point of where the Republican wins.
--:-- Georgia Howe: That's a great point. So, you're saying that Republicans are likely to win the Senate.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Yeah, that's right. And then when you start talking about the other four states in play, I mean, it could get up higher than that. I think the other races are a little bit more challenging though.
--:-- John Bickley: Well, I'm sure Republicans would love to hear that. Brent, thanks so much for joining us.
--:-- Brent Buchanan: Hey, great to be with y'all.
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--:-- John Bickley: That was Signal Polling Group President Brent Buchanan, and this has been a Sunday edition of Morning Wire.
--:-- Georgia Howe: Thanks for tuning in, and we'll see you tomorrow.
--:-- John Bickley: Goodnight.
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