Election Predictions, Trump Media’s Dip, and Guest Host Jon Favreau

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Kara Swisher: Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher, and Scott is still off at parts unknown. So we have a special guest host, co-founder of Crooked Media, host of Pod Save America, and author of the upcoming book, *Democracy or Else: How to Save America in 10 Easy Steps*. I wish it was easy. Jon Favreau.

Jon Favreau: Hi, how's it going?

Kara Swisher: And how are you doing?

Jon Favreau: I'm great. I'm great.

Kara Swisher: You know, how's your book tour?

Jon Favreau: Oh, it's great. My book is great. Let's not talk about me. Let's talk about you.

Kara Swisher: So 10 Easy Steps, you're going to save America in 10 Easy Steps?

Jon Favreau: It's a bit of a tongue-in-cheek title. We thought we would put together a guide for people who really want to get involved, not just in the 2024 election, but hopefully many elections beyond that. Since we started Pod Save America way back in 2017, a lot of people were afraid when Trump got elected. They've asked us over many years how to get involved, what's the best way to be effective in politics. So we decided to finally put our thoughts down into a book. It's a quick read, it's funny, and hopefully it's useful to a lot of people who are wondering how best to help between now and November.

Kara Swisher: Well, it's a very difficult time. We're going to talk a lot about this. We've got a lot to get to, including lots of politics. We'll unpack the latest 2024 election poll and discuss how Florida's Supreme Court ruling might impact the race. Plus, we have a special surprise guest joining us later. It's a Jon superfan, so we'll talk about that in a second. But first, Trump Media's stock is in the dumps. As we tape, the company has lost billions in value as the stock is down 33 percent in the last five days. That's not the only mess the company is in. The media company is suing its co-founders for failing, quote, "spectacularly" to get the company off the ground and for, quote, "breaches of financial duty." The lawsuit seeks to stop the co-founders, both of whom are former contestants from *The Apprentice*, from appointing members of the board or owning any shares. The co-founders claim an agreement signed in 2021 guarantees them 8.6 percent of shares and sued the company in February over their stakes. And just in case that wasn't enough, a Florida venture capitalist and his brother have pleaded guilty to participating in insider trading, seeing linked to the deal that brought Trump's company public. Totally above board business, right? So let's talk a little bit about this company. Thoughts, given that you run your own media company?

Jon Favreau: Yeah, no, we're no Trump Media. I mean, it does seem-

Kara Swisher: It's not worth billions of dollars, but go ahead.

Jon Favreau: Right. Well, we don't have a... I mean, it does seem like if people want to bet on Donald Trump, they're going to buy Trump Media, even though it's not necessarily a real business. It lost $58 million last year. There are all these investigations. There's a money laundering investigation into the merger. There's a lot going on there. But I think it's almost like a Trump coin, like a Trump Bitcoin. So I do think the stock is going to end up rising or falling based on where Trump is in the polls and how he does in November, which is just crazy and seems sort of unprecedented with something in the stock market like that tied to politics.

Kara Swisher: How do you look at it? Because people on the left tend to make it into a joke. I think it's more important than that. You could have foreign countries put money in here. You could have his supporters. It's a way to funnel money to him, even if there's no actual business in the background. I think it's actually much more serious, even though it's laughable at the same time.

Jon Favreau: Oh, yeah. No, we were saying on Pod Save America that if he gets in the White House again, he's going to run into the emoluments challenge again. If a foreign government wants to curry favor with the Trump administration, the easiest way to do that is to just buy up a bunch of Trump Media stock. And they can do that. Look, it's a scam like everything else he does is a scam, but he tends to get richer off these scams. People just want to buy it because he has this huge base of support and people want to help him get rich, which is crazy, but they do. And they want to support him. So this is a vehicle to do that.

Kara Swisher: And do you find it dangerous? Because you can have the SEC come in here and everything else, but maybe not if there's a Trump administration.

Jon Favreau: Yeah, I don't know all the... I mean, certainly there are a few investigations into it right now. I don't know what all the SEC rules are, but yeah, it is dangerous. It's clearly not the way that businesses are supposed to operate or politics is supposed to operate. But once again, in this Trump era, we're in this bizarre world where Donald Trump can scam a bunch of people and seemingly get away with it.

Kara Swisher: Yeah, absolutely. So do you think this is his next criminal case? Probably of the many that will be added upon him.

Jon Favreau: Well, he's got a few to get through before he gets to this one.

Kara Swisher: Yeah, absolutely. So another thing is Jon Stewart says Apple wouldn't let him interview FTC chair Lina Khan on the podcast that was an extension of his Apple show. Stewart's comments came weeks after the Justice Department sued Apple for abusing its monopoly position. The *Daily Show* host's Apple TV show ended last year over creative differences, including, according to Stewart, his desire to explore topics like China and AI. But this is a new one, not wanting Lina Khan, who is an enemy of Apple, I would say. Did the Justice Department's case just get stronger? Or how do you look at that, that he just sort of dropped this one right in the middle of this interview?

Jon Favreau: Yeah, I thought that was interesting. From a legal standpoint, I have no idea if this actually makes the Justice Department's case stronger, just because I don't know if this is one of the aspects that they're investigating. But from a PR perspective, I was kind of shocked that Apple did that. Did they really think that this wouldn't come back to bite them in the ass, that Stewart would never say anything? It's a PR mistake, and they don't make a ton of PR mistakes at Apple. So I was very surprised that they told him point blank not to do that.

Kara Swisher: And in terms of what's happening with his Apple case, how do you look at it?

Jon Favreau: I think that Apple, the fact that they have this monopoly on the App Store, which I know is a big part of the case, is pretty anti-competitive. You can't... I think the DOJ has a strong case here. I'm glad they brought it. I don't think they would bring it if they weren't pretty confident that they had a pretty strong case. We're not going to know for a couple of years. It's going to take a long time to work its way through the courts. But I do think they have a pretty strong case.

Kara Swisher: As a media person, someone who has a media company, how do you look at that company and the power of tech in general?

Jon Favreau: Look, I think they have too much power. I think a lot of the charges against them that they're anti-competitive is true. I have a particular problem with the social media platforms. I think the algorithms are making us all crazy. They're poisoning the information environment. I think they need to be better regulated from that standpoint. The social media and the algorithm issue for me is a much bigger issue than the anti-competitive practices, although I think that's still a big issue. From where I sit, as someone who thinks a lot about and works in politics, I just think what they have done to the information environment is... we're not going to fix politics if we don't fix that.

Kara Swisher: When you think about what needs to happen, it never does, though. It never, ever happens. What do you point to as the single most problematic situation in doing something about it?

Jon Favreau: Well, Congress can barely keep itself open, right? It can barely fund the government. So the idea that we're going to get significant reform legislation through seems difficult at this point. So then you have DOJ and you have Lina Khan at the FTC. The Biden administration is taking as much action as you can, but you're not going to have any real change unless you get legislation through Congress. Right now you have a Congress that can't really do much of anything, even though on some of these tech issues, there is bipartisan agreement. There are lots of places where Republicans and Democrats want to work together on this kind of stuff. But once it becomes a big political debate, then you have some on the right talking about censorship. So the goals aren't aligned anymore. It's a tough thing to get done. But I give the Biden administration a lot of credit for pushing as hard as it can with the power that it has.

Kara Swisher: Let me ask you that because I blame Obama for this, as you know, because I think you all were too tight with the techies. How do you assess that?

Jon Favreau: I do. I think. Yeah, we were.

Kara Swisher: Talk about that. Why?

Jon Favreau: It was a different world then. When we were interviewing Obama in November, he said, "Everyone credits Facebook with a big part of how we raise money, how we organize. But the key was people were organizing online to then meet up in real life offline." He said that's why we found it very useful and valuable because it was an organizing tool, but it was a real-life organizing tool. Now, the fact that all politics and all organizing and all activism, everything is done online... he said that has become a net negative for politics. It has let misinformation and disinformation poison the body politic. It has made us all sort of crazy as we're on social media all the time. I think we didn't see then what this would become. If President Obama was president now, he would not have had the same relationship, even if he was president five, six years ago. He wouldn't have had the same relationship as he did in 2008. He's out there now talking about the dangers of AI. I know he's very concerned.

Kara Swisher: I know he is. I know we had lunch discussing it. He did say I was right. But in any case, I do think it was a missed opportunity. Last thing, a new bill in California is aiming to give employees the right to disconnect when they're off the clock. The bill in California state legislature would allow employees to ignore after-hours calls without punishment and potentially fine employers for communicating outside of work hours. Bosses would need to establish non-working hours that could also have a policy for emergency calls. If passed, California would be the first state to pass such a law. Those similar laws exist in 13 countries, including Australia, Belgium and Mexico. John, you have an experience trying to disconnect for a challenge on your show *Offline*. Tell me what you think of this law.

Jon Favreau: So I have never had a job in my entire life where I've been able to disconnect. That's sort of the deal when you have a job that's tied to the news, politics, government. You know this. That said, at least in this company, I try really hard not to bug people outside of work hours. Or at least if I do, I certainly don't expect a response from them unless it's super important. But as you know, working in media, sometimes that's not very feasible because there are deadlines and news breaks. Anything tied to the news, it's tough to do this. So I don't necessarily think it's feasible to do this for every job. It's tough now that we're doing so much remote and hybrid work because to do remote and hybrid and to also say you're only going to be available between nine and five... it's tough. I was reading a story about this and the legislator who proposed the bill said it would only require companies be transparent about their expectations for working hours. Employers would still have the freedom to dictate their policy, which could include that employees be available around the clock. So I'm like, does this law really make sense if it's just going to be a bunch of employers talking about it, setting different expectations anyway? I don't know about the bill itself, but I do think it is very important to have chunks of time where you do not feel like you are "on" and that you have to respond to your colleagues or your boss.

Kara Swisher: Right. Which has changed drastically. But you can't also have working from home if this doesn't happen because you could also take time off at home and nobody knows.

Jon Favreau: Correct. Exactly.

Kara Swisher: Is there a right for employers to say, "Sit at your desk during those times because you're mine," or not? If a bill like this passed, then they would have to. Because if you're remote working and you're not there and you take a couple hours in the afternoon, but then when it's five o'clock, you can't reach the person, then when can you reach the employee?

Jon Favreau: Right, exactly.

Kara Swisher: Do you have that problem at your business? How do you conduct, what is your policy, Jon Favreau?

Jon Favreau: We don't have an official one. We all just sort of Slack. And when there are big news things that are breaking, or when one of us has a pod that we're hosting the next day, the producers will work later and work odd hours. What we try to do is if you worked later or stayed up late on something, you can maybe take a flex day later. I know personally, because I'm an elder millennial who has never really disconnected because I've been a political and news junkie for so long. But since doing *Offline*, I have tried to... I try to come home from work at like 5:36 and now I have two kids. So I try to put my phone in my office at home and just leave it there until like 7:38 or 8 o'clock when the kids go to bed, and then I will stay up for another couple hours and do work.

Kara Swisher: Do you succeed at that?

Jon Favreau: Most of the time I do. Most of the time I do.

Kara Swisher: Interesting. Interesting. Because it's like, you know what? Well, also, I'm in California, so everybody's in bed. When it's seven, eight here, the news isn't really breaking. In the morning, I get up at like four, four thirty because it's my only quiet time. And then I consume everything.

Jon Favreau: You consume everything.

Kara Swisher: And do you think this will pass? I think this is "mommy state." I don't think it'll pass. It's also a very professional class piece of legislation, right? There are a lot of jobs in this country, most jobs in this country, where this just doesn't make sense at all.

Jon Favreau: Yeah.

Kara Swisher: You don't have a right to disconnect. You have to be there and get paid badly. That's really your right. Your right is to be there and get paid badly. I think it's a ridiculous law. I think it's such a canard. It's such a ridiculous law. People's companies should decide on this. Obviously, they don't want to be abusive to their employees, but they should decide on this with their employees. And then people either stay or they go dependent on that. I just don't know. It feels like something that companies should work out with their employees and then have their expectations either met or not met. And in jobs like ours, the issue is should you text or Slack? Slack people can look at, text is right in your face. So maybe they can make rules like that around that. But I happen to like to text. So that's the way it's going in my workplace. Anyway, let's go on a quick break. When we come back, we'll talk about the latest 2024 poll numbers and how the Supreme Court ruling in Florida could shake up the race. We have a lot to talk about. John, are you ready?

Jon Favreau: I'm so ready.

[Ad Break]

Kara Swisher: John, we're back and we're talking about the presidential election and we have a special guest joining us and a Jon Favreau superfan, Louis Swisher. Louis, come on in.

Louis Swisher: Hello! How are you guys?

Kara Swisher: How you doing?

Jon Favreau: Hi, Louis.

Louis Swisher: Hi. I'm doing great today. It's a beautiful day here in Argentina and I'm living large.

Kara Swisher: Yeah, Louis, I'm in Argentina too. I have not revealed that, but I'm visiting Louis here. We're at different places. And he's studying for a year. He's at NYU and he's studying abroad. So he gets an upfront and personal look at politics, Argentinian style, which there's a lot going on here. But let's start with some polling. The latest numbers are out and it's not great news for Joe Biden. Former President Donald Trump is leading President Joe Biden in six out of seven swing states, according to the *Wall Street Journal*'s new poll. Trump has a multi-point overall lead in these states that increases to double digits when it comes to questions about the economy, inflation and immigration. Biden does beat Trump on abortion rights, an issue we'll discuss more in a bit. But John, let's start with you on these numbers and why Biden doesn't get credit for the economy.

Jon Favreau: So I think caveat, any single poll, you can't freak out over too much. But if you throw it in the average, the averages right now show Trump ahead by about a point. And then if you go to the swing states, he's ahead by about four in Arizona, two to three in Michigan, three in Nevada. It's about tied in Wisconsin and it's almost tied in Pennsylvania as well. So not great for Biden, but it's early. That's the reason for optimism, it is early so the numbers can change. I do think the reason, to your question about the economy, when you go through inflation, even though the rate of inflation has come down, prices are still high. For a lot of people who were struggling even before inflation, having higher prices, you don't necessarily notice yet that your wages are also going up. So you're still... it's a $12 hamburger and it's not a $13 hamburger anymore, but you're still pissed that it used to be cheaper. I don't think that's gone away yet. The good news is, I think consumer sentiment, economic sentiment continues to rise. So you're starting to see in the polls views of the economy get a little bit better as well. It's slow going, and obviously anything can happen between now and November, but it is heading in the right direction. But I do think people are still pretty upset over inflation.

Kara Swisher: So when you saw these polls, what did you think?

Jon Favreau: Oh, Jesus, it's continuing. It doesn't change. It hasn't changed at all. And how can this guy have such a great lead?

Kara Swisher: Yeah. So I think there are a few reasons. There are people still upset about high prices. I think the fact that Trump is now the challenger really helps him because he is comfortable in that role. When Joe Biden ran in 2020, Joe Biden didn't have a record that everyone knew and was pissed about as president. Biden now has a record. To the extent that people are upset about high prices, to the extent that they feel upset about immigration, upset about Gaza, there's a general feeling that the world is out of control. And the president, the incumbent, always gets the lion's share of the blame for that. So I think he's struggling with that. I also think memories are short, which is why you see Trump get all these retrospectively higher approval ratings from his first term than anyone would expect. I do think the more we see of Trump and the more we hear from Trump during this campaign, his numbers will sort of settle back to where they were when he was president. At least that's the hope. That's what the Biden campaign is hoping as well. I think that's part of the party. And then, of course, I think Biden's other big challenge is third-party threats because Trump has a low ceiling, but a high floor. He has never been able to hit 50 in all the times he's run. But he won't need to if these third parties start taking away votes from Joe Biden.

Kara Swisher: Louis Swisher, what do you think about this? You and I have been arguing for days about this situation. I am more in the John camp, but you have a different perspective. Why don't you educate us?

Louis Swisher: I don't know if I can, but yeah. Well, I do really appreciate your comments, what you and John were commenting on. I think there's a strong sentiment for the Biden campaign going into the 2024 election. But the thing that really bothers me is that voters have watched this movie before. We saw in 2020, Trump versus Biden, and now we see it again. I think the electorate is generally pretty fatigued with these two options. Because of that, and the other things we were talking about, how the incumbent is usually blamed for the state of the country regardless of what may have come before the incumbent that led to these things, I think that's going to be a really big challenge for Biden. But one thing I really appreciated recently was an interview with Simon Rosenberg by Adam Nagourney in the *New York Times*. He's a Democratic strategist. I thought his really confident attitude about Biden going forward was something to admire and to try to replicate throughout the Biden campaign.

Kara Swisher: What about it? What about it in terms of... because one of the things you're saying, a lot of your friends are sort of Trump. They're fine with Trump, correct?

Louis Swisher: Well, yeah. Something I've seen really recently is that a lot of young people are so dissatisfied with the status of the Biden administration that they're willing to just let Trump come up into the forefront and just pass on his vision of the country in 2025. I think that is just pretty ignorant to try to just look past the accomplishments of the Biden administration and to give Trump a general pass up to the White House. Because I think going forward with issues that are really important to young voters like the war in Israel, the economy, the status of student loan debts, these things will be really, really, really much better in the hands of Biden than in Trump.

Kara Swisher: But why are they giving him a pass? What do they say to you when you're arguing? You yourself are a little bit like Biden sometimes.

Louis Swisher: Well, it's kind of hard not to be a nihilist if you're of Generation Z. I think we're a pretty...

Kara Swisher: Why is that?

Louis Swisher: I don't know. I think we had a lot of moments of hope in the past 20, 30 years of American politics. But the problem is that time after time we've been handed defeats or setbacks or laybacks. I think that just really is getting to Gen Z. But I don't think we're going to give up because of that. I think we're going to fight harder. I think the thing that the Biden campaign really has to do going forward is to try to just make a pitch to the country that if you reelect Joe Biden, there are still options on the table. With Donald Trump, there's not as many options on the table. There are legitimate criticisms of Joe Biden's administration and his campaign and his promises, whether or not they've been kept. But the thing about Joe Biden is that he is willing to reflect and reform. You've seen this on his stances on LGBTQ rights, crime to some extent. I think going forward, it's really just important to remember that with Joe Biden, you could have the potential for a conversation. But with Donald Trump, it's his way or the highway. And that is really dangerous. You don't want to give that guy a good card.

Kara Swisher: John, do you have a question for Louis?

Jon Favreau: No, I was just... I think that's very well put. I can sense your frustration both with your friends who don't care if Trump wins and you about the Biden administration. The way I think about it is, we have to avoid thinking about our vote as either a reward or punishment for Joe Biden or for Donald Trump. It's ultimately not about Joe Biden and Donald Trump. It is about us. It is about the future that we decide for ourselves. There are two choices. Joe Biden's going to be president or Donald Trump's going to be president. You can vote for a third party, it's not going to happen. They're not going to win. We don't even know if any of these third party candidates are on the ballot in enough states to win, to actually get 270 electoral votes. So then you have a choice between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Nuance isn't people's specialty in politics these days, but I very much disagree with Joe Biden's Gaza policy. I also think I love most of everything else he's done. I have personal affection and respect for him. I'll be spending every waking hour trying to make sure that he and Democrats get elected. Some people are like, "How could you do that with the Gaza policy?" It's like, well, because there are a whole bunch of other issues. Elections are a choice. Donald Trump, I absolutely believe, would be much worse than Joe Biden, not just on Gaza, but on everything, on every single other issue. What I'd rather do is exactly what you said, Louis. Joe Biden has shown that even though he is an 81-year-old, fairly mainstream Democrat who's been in public service forever, he has, even from 2020 to now, been very open to progressives not only challenging him, but persuading him to change positions on multiple issues. He's governed domestically as one of the most progressive presidents of our lifetime and has accomplished quite a bit that way. I think progressives should see that as a win. They have a president who... they never thought that Joe Biden of all people would be this guy who you could push to pass progressive, really progressive legislation, and he listened. So I think he gives you a better chance than Donald Trump does.

Kara Swisher: So Louie, what do you think about his age? How do you and younger people... not speaking for all young people, but what does that give you pause?

Jon Favreau: So I think age is age of both of them. But that's the thing. When we talk about age, we always talk about Joe Biden and we don't talk about Donald Trump, even though he's only like, what, three, four years behind. I think age could be really interesting going forward because not only is it kind of a detrimental thing to his campaign to some extent, depending on perception, but as Simon Rosenberg was talking about, it could be an asset because Joe Biden has more experience than any president in U.S. history. He's been the president, the vice president, a senator for years. He knows how to work through the system to get things done.

Jon Favreau: I really appreciate your comments, John, on how Joe Biden needs to be more than himself. I think that would be a winning campaign message: Joe Biden is part of a team, part of a movement, part of a collective of people who want to make this country better. And Donald Trump is just running for himself.

Louis Swisher: I would just say on the age issue, it is a performance issue, not an age issue. The reason I say that is because privately, everyone will say that Joe Biden is extremely sharp and with it. I have experienced this myself. Last Christmas, my family and I were in the White House and we ran into him. He recognized my mother-in-law from meeting her in 2018. He said, "I recognize that face." Then he saw us and brought us up to the Oval. It was very nice of him. He was telling us stories, and the detail of the stories... I mean, it was classic Joe Biden. He talks a lot, he tells stories, and sometimes he doesn't get it all out right, but he is absolutely mentally sharp.

Louis Swisher: I think the challenge is that because he is older, the stutter has gotten a little bit worse with age, and he shuffles a little bit because he's got some back issues. So he appears much older. But during the State of the Union, we saw that when he needs to perform, he can step up and perform. If he can do that throughout the campaign, he'll be in much better shape, and Simon Rosenberg's optimism will be warranted.

Kara Swisher: So let me ask you one more question. You do talk a lot about Gaza. How important is it to younger people, more progressive people? It obviously sticks in your craw in a way that I hadn't seen before from you, since you're usually pretty even-handed on a lot of stuff.

Louis Swisher: Yeah, I think this is a really important issue because it is going to model how we engage with our allies and our enemies and how we engage with foreign relations for years to come. Right now, the United States is not checking itself and not questioning its own support of a really, I think, unhinged and progressively dangerous regime in Israel.

Louis Swisher: I really appreciated and agreed with Ben Rhodes the other day on Pod Save the World. He had some really good comments on the recent World Kitchen strike and the status of why we are still supporting this, regardless of the fact that we've been shown time and time again that the Israeli government does not listen to the United States. We are sending them weapons and weapons and weapons, signing more and more deals to support Israel, but we're not getting anything in return. We're not getting any response from Netanyahu's administration on our legitimate requests. First of all, we send weapons without any knowledge of what these weapons are being used for, with no checks and boundaries.

Louis Swisher: Going forward, if the United States doesn't put a foot down, it's going to set a very dangerous precedent for our allies to stretch our limits, and for the consequences of this unquestioned support going forward and what kind of retaliation that could face in the future.

Kara Swisher: And it has resonance with you.

Louis Swisher: Yeah. I think also because it's such a visible crisis. We're able to see time and time again on Twitter, on Instagram, videos of what is happening on the ground. Especially with the algorithms of TikTok and Instagram that are so engagement-focused, these things are put into our face time and time again.

Kara Swisher: Can I ask you, do you think you're being manipulated by them?

Louis Swisher: I've been raised in the manipulation. Our generation has been scrolling for years. So I think to some extent, we've figured that out. We know when we're being lied to. We know when to look for things. I can spot an AI deepfake like nothing. I know what it is.

Kara Swisher: Yeah, it's older people that lose their minds over it, more than anybody else.

Louis Swisher: It is. But I think because we are the information generation, we have so much coming at us from so many angles all the time that it hurts our brains almost to try to consider all these global events. For years before, you didn't really resonate with it unless you were seeing it. And now we are seeing it. That is why it's so impactful for the younger generation.

Louis Swisher: Also, it really goes against the morals that we've been told for years and years that our country stands for, not only on a domestic sense, but also on an international sense. And our quest to spread democracy around the world. Big air quotes.

Kara Swisher: All right. So let's talk about what happened in Florida this week, because there's another issue. The Florida Supreme Court ruled that a section of the state's constitution did not protect abortion, effectively allowing the state to ban abortions after six weeks. But the court also ruled that a question about whether to protect abortion rights in Florida's constitution would be added to the ballot in September so voters could have a say. We've seen these work before in Ohio and other states. John, could this give Biden a possible path to victory in Florida come November? How do you look at this?

Jon Favreau: It's possible, but I don't think it's in the top five or six states for them. They're going to have the money to try to play in a lot of different states. They're going to play in North Carolina, which I think is probably closer than Florida. But what they're looking at in Florida is, like you said, the fact that when abortion has been on the ballot in other places, it has received huge majorities, including from Republicans and independents. So they're betting on that.

Jon Favreau: Joe Biden is, oddly enough, in a lot of these polls, holding his number with white voters, and he's also polling better with 65-plus than he has been. So when you look at that, and then you think about the abortion amendment, they're looking at Florida and thinking, okay, it's worth playing here. The challenge with the amendment is that in Florida, it's a 60% threshold to get abortion rights enshrined in the state constitution. It's a higher threshold than in some of the states. The referendum in Ohio won with 57% of the vote, just to give you an idea of what you actually need there.

Jon Favreau: But look, the fact that this amendment will be on the ballot in the backdrop of the Supreme Court upholding the six-week ban means that the six-week ban basically eliminates abortion access in the South. Florida was the one state that hadn't banned it. Now you're going to have a lot of people in Florida and all throughout the American South who just have nowhere to go to get an abortion.

Kara Swisher: I'm just curious, Louie, is this an important issue among voters like you, younger people?

Louis Swisher: A hundred percent. This is a really important issue for young people. For me as a young voter, I think this could really be the key instrument in domestic policy that Joe Biden could use to win the election going forward. Laws like the six-week abortion ban are an infringement not only on women's rights, but human rights, the right to bodily autonomy, and the right to self-determination.

Louis Swisher: If Joe Biden can help voters understand through appearances, campaign, or speeches that this is setting a dangerous precedent of government control over human bodies, it would really rally support, not only for a vote like this in the specific case for a law, but also for more general support towards Democrats and away from Republicans.

Kara Swisher: But what's the most important issue for someone like you? Is it Gaza? Is it abortion? If you had to pick one.

Louis Swisher: Going into this election, it's the choice to continue being able to make choices. If we elect Donald Trump in 2024, our ability to make decisions as voters is really going to go down. There's going to be a lot of legislation that infringes not only on human rights, like in cases of abortion, but also on the ability to criticize those choices and the ability to elect people who might or might not want to discontinue what the American people are looking for.

Louis Swisher: Donald Trump is a man who runs for himself. To continue to support his power, he has to restrict other people's power. Electing Joe Biden would definitely continue to keep the power of the United States in the hands of the people rather than a demagogic figure.

Jon Favreau: People talk about the end of democracy as a shorthand, and that can seem alarmist. You really need to make that tangible for people. But even if Donald Trump wins the presidency and doesn't have a Republican Congress, which I think is highly unlikely if he wins, what he can do through executive action alone is terrifying.

Jon Favreau: He has said that he wants to, and his advisers have said that they want to, invoke the Insurrection Act. That's using the U.S. military against protesters. They want to use the U.S. military and the National Guard to go into cities across the country and conduct mass deportation raids. This isn't about new migrant arrivals at the border. This is going into workplaces and communities, dragging people out, and checking their papers.

Jon Favreau: He wants to pardon people who violently assaulted police officers on January 6th. Imagine the message that sends to other people who want to commit political violence. Donald Trump just let all these violent people who tried to kill cops out of prison. Then he wants to send the FBI and the DOJ after pretty much anyone who disagrees with him politically. It's not just about the Biden crime family and putting Biden in jail. Imagine him investigating businesses. The IRS coming after you. He's promised to investigate MSNBC. Things can go downhill really fast.

Jon Favreau: If he wins, people say, "Oh, maybe the courts will stop him." But Liz Cheney said this to me when I was interviewing her. She said, "Why would he listen to the courts at that point? They're going to say, 'You and what army are going to force your ruling?'" So I think it is possible that he's too lazy to do some of this stuff. It is possible that he doesn't get to all of it because he's too incompetent. But even if he does half of what he's already talked about as president, it's pretty dangerous.

Kara Swisher: Yeah, he said it. So let's move on really quickly. Talk about the vice presidential pick. He's reportedly going to be drawn out apprentice style, which is what he's going to do. John, who do you think it's going to be?

Jon Favreau: My top of the list, who I think it'll be, is Tim Scott. Kellyanne Conway wrote an op-ed in the New York Times, and usually she reflects the thinking of the Trump world. She suggested Tim Scott or Marco Rubio because she thinks peeling off more Black or Latino voters is going to be important for them. They're actually doing fairly well with Latino voters if you look at the polls. But with Black voters, especially young Black men who are drifting away from the Democrats, Tim Scott gives some voters who don't pay super close attention a permission structure to say, "Okay, maybe Trump's not that bad." He's a younger, genial-seeming guy.

Jon Favreau: Now, will Trump want Tim Scott? Or will Trump think Tim Scott is a little too weird? That's a different story. I don't actually know who Trump really wants, but I would bet that the campaign strategically would push him towards Scott.

Kara Swisher: Strategically wants to pick him. Correct. But what would you pick if it was just up to him?

Jon Favreau: It's a good question. Maybe J.D. Vance, although he doesn't want anyone to outshine him. I could also see him going with Kristi Noem because for Trump, it's all about the looks and the appearance of the ticket. He kind of likes that. But in Trump's mind, the qualifications are: are you going to be so loyal that when I ask you to overturn the election, like I did Mike Pence, you're not going to tell me no? This person needs to be able to do anything. Trump's been bitten once by Pence, so he's not going down that road again.

Jon Favreau: He wants someone who is 100% loyal and someone who is not going to outshine him. In his mind, that's what he cares about the most, and someone who is going to make him look good. So if you go with that, you've got a Kristi Noem or someone who will be subservient to him. J.D. Vance is a possibility as well.

Kara Swisher: Louie, do you have any picks really quick?

Louis Swisher: Yeah, I really agree with John. Looks, being low-key, and loyalty are going to be the most important things for Donald Trump's VP candidate. Personally, because he's a master of keeping you watching until the ad break and after, I'm just going to hold off and wait until I see his decision. But I think probably somebody who is unquestionably loyal, can hold the stage, but doesn't take the spotlight, and can just get behind whatever message he's going to pump out next. Somebody like J.D. Vance is actually quite terrifying if that would be his candidate.

Kara Swisher: Yeah, I would agree. He doesn't like your mama, Louis, just so you know. J.D. Vance doesn't like your mama. Anyway, John, I know you wanted to talk a little bit to finish up this section about the impact of media consumption and disinformation on the presidential race. Louis just talked about it, how he feels he's been inundated, but they kind of get it. What concerns you most about how people are getting their information this election? Meta recently announced a new setting that limits political content on Instagram and Threads. They're trying to lean away from it because they can't deal with it, I think. Talk very briefly about what you want to say here.

Jon Favreau: I'm really concerned about not just misinformation and disinformation, but the splintering of media. The fact that no one is getting their media from the same source, or at least fewer people are. From a campaign perspective, it becomes very hard to reach the majority of voters in this country. The majority of voters, even though they're going to turn out and cast a ballot, just do not pay attention to the news like any of us do.

Jon Favreau: So if you're the Biden campaign or a Democratic campaign, you have to think to yourself, "How am I going to reach these voters who are not tuning in?" If they do tune in, maybe they just saw a TikTok that could be true, could be false, could be hyperbole. The challenge in this information environment of reaching voters is going to be harder than it's ever been.

Kara Swisher: So how do you do that? How do you reach them?

Jon Favreau: You see the Biden campaign getting creative with the types of outlets he does interviews with. The political press in D.C. will complain that he doesn't do interviews with them, but he's doing a lot of other more creative interviews to try to reach people. Advertising is still the blunt force instrument because a lot of people are still watching TV, especially older Americans. But with younger Americans, you have to rely more on what campaigns call "relational organizing." That's the people in your social network: your friends, your colleagues, the people who follow you. People are more likely to trust someone they know who tells them how to vote or who to vote for than they are some television ad, because social trust is so low.

Jon Favreau: That kind of organizing in these swing states, through media and through people who have influential media followings, is going to be really important to the Biden campaign. It's just really hard to reach people under 40 with traditional methods of campaigning and media right now.

Kara Swisher: All right, Louis, you're someone under 40, you're under 30, you're under 25. What, in fact, influences you?

Louis Swisher: I would use action. Our generation, while we may not be actively intaking political information, we are very passively intaking a lot of stuff. I'm a Beltway boy through and through. I lived in D.C. for like eight years, so I am very fascinated and intrigued and interested in constantly taking on information about the political scene. I think a lot of people in my generation are as well. We want to be a very engaged generation.

Louis Swisher: I think the best way for Joe Biden to go about spreading his message and campaigning, especially through channels like social media, is to act. Social media is a reactionary creature. Maybe the best way to engage with it is to feed it content, not like the cookie content, those short little videos. None of that. They don't like that stuff.

Kara Swisher: No cookies.

Louis Swisher: No, those silly videos are not going to go anywhere but the meme channels. I think what he needs to do is demonstrate to the American voters his case. He needs to show up. He needs to give good speeches. He needs to make good policy decisions. Those things could reverberate through the channels of social media and get to voters.

Kara Swisher: So where would it be impactful for you? Where do you get most of your information? You're always looking at different things. Reddit, right?

Louis Swisher: Reddit is one of them. That's more funny content. But I listen to a lot of podcasts. I engage a lot with YouTube. I watch a lot of PBS documentaries. I see a lot of MSNBC clips. Honestly, late night has been a really good source of information for me over the past five or six years, which is kind of depressing, but it speaks to our moment where we want someone we trust to share information with us rather than just going to the horse's mouth.

Louis Swisher: Through channels like podcasts, through media figures like Jon Stewart and other late night people, those people are going to play a really key and essential role in communicating with voters. The onus might even be on them to do that.

Kara Swisher: Would you care if Taylor Swift backed Biden?

Louis Swisher: I mean, she did it before. So I think she's probably going to do it again. Her decision does not swing my vote.

Kara Swisher: It doesn't swing your vote.

Louis Swisher: Celebrities should stay away from this one, I think. I believe a lot in keeping the personal life personal. Politics can blend into that, but political activism doesn't have to. Celebrities could get political in their activism sense, but the whole "vote Joe Biden because I'm going to vote for Joe Biden" message could get a little fatigued by election day.

Jon Favreau: It's got to be real and authentic. I think about normie voters. We are not normie voters on this podcast right now, but there are a lot of people who will not tune in. Someone they really admire is a signifier. If that person talks authentically about why they think it's important to vote for Joe Biden or why it's important that Donald Trump isn't president again, I do think that can have an effect on people whose minds are not made up. I know it seems impossible to believe that there are people whose minds are not made up.

Jon Favreau: Whether they're not made up between voting for Biden or Trump, or just whether they're going to vote at all, there's a lot of persuasion work to be done. You have to try everything to reach some of these voters who just aren't paying as much attention. Sometimes that can be a celebrity endorsement. Sometimes that can be a good friend having a tough conversation with them. Sometimes it can be a podcast they listen to, something they read. There are so many different ways.

Jon Favreau: The other important thing is that all of us, if you really want Joe Biden to win and you don't want Donald Trump to be president, we have the ability to be messengers. The people who are going to play the biggest role are the people who have already decided they are going to support Joe Biden, trying to go out there and talk to other people they know in their networks to convince them to do the same thing. I don't think that's going to be easy, but I think that's going to be the critical work of the campaign.

Kara Swisher: That's a fair point. Okay, I have a last question for you, John. I'm doing the nepo question. I don't have the answer for Louis. He wants to get involved in politics. A lot of young people ask me about that. How would he do that? Between now and then, if he wanted to work somewhere or do something, where would you say the best place for younger people to get involved is? They always say, "What do I do? I just watch videos." What would you advise him and others like him?

Jon Favreau: 100%, go to a campaign and work on a campaign. In politics, the closest thing to meritocracy is our campaigns. That is because they are always short on cash and short on staff. If you start off as a volunteer or an intern or an entry-level staffer on a campaign and you have talent and you're willing to work really hard, you will have a chance to move up in a way that you would not in a congressional office or a nonprofit or places like that.

Jon Favreau: I was 21 or 22 years old when I joined the Kerry campaign. I was a press assistant. I woke up at four in the morning. I got coffee and sent press clips to people. It was a bleak job. I made twenty-four thousand dollars a year. But then when the Kerry campaign was broke and Kerry had to mortgage his house to stay afloat, a bunch of people quit. They needed a deputy speechwriter and no one would join the campaign. They couldn't afford to hire a real deputy speechwriter. So they just made me it because they thought the campaign would be over in a couple months anyway. Then he won the nomination and beat Howard Dean. So I became speechwriter. It was only because I was there and willing to work crazy hours.

Kara Swisher: Just campaign. Just campaign. See, I got the campaign. Anyway, thank you, Louis. Thank you so much. I'll see you soon. You're going to come over and see your mama before I leave.

Louis Swisher: Yeah, we'll get a coffee.

Kara Swisher: Good meeting you, Louie. Good luck.

Jon Favreau: Thank you, Louis.

Louis Swisher: Thank you, John.

Kara Swisher: Thanks, Lou. All right. We're going to take one more quick break, John, and we'll be back for predictions.

[AD BREAK]

Kara Swisher: Okay, John, I want to hear a prediction. He really is a huge fan of yours. I'm not kidding. He's awesome. You've raised a wonderful kid.

Jon Favreau: Yeah, the other one is good, too. They're all good. They're all great.

Kara Swisher: Anyway, so let's hear a prediction from you.

Jon Favreau: I predict that we will have a January 6th trial before the election.

Kara Swisher: Explain your reasoning.

Jon Favreau: I know that people are rightfully concerned about the Supreme Court. I don't think people are so concerned about the decision. I think they will decide that Trump doesn't have immunity, but they're worried about the timing. I believe there is a majority on the court, probably Roberts and then some combination of Kavanaugh and Barrett, if not both, who will very much understand that if they kick the can down the road and wait until June or July to issue a ruling in the immunity case, then they are effectively granting Donald Trump immunity.

Jon Favreau: For someone who's worried about the reputation of the court, as John Roberts is, disagree with him as I do on a whole bunch of issues, I think he will be way too aware of the blowback to the court if they essentially just grant Donald Trump immunity by kicking the can down the road on the case.

Kara Swisher: Yeah, I would have to agree. I think there's a lot more comity on that court than we think. At least on this, at least on issues of democracy and Trump. Clearly not on abortion, not on a lot of voting rights stuff. But they'll be blamed for it if they don't do something. On the issues where they've decided on Trump-specific issues, there's been more agreement than you'd imagine.

Kara Swisher: All right. That's an interesting prediction. Well, we'll see. That would be great because I think that's exactly the right thing to do. It's not just a good thing. It's the right thing to do. Anyway, John, I really appreciate it. We want to hear from you. That's about what we thought about John's prediction. Send us your questions also about business tech or whatever's on your mind. Go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show or call 855-51-PIVOT. John, that's the show. As usual, you're wonderful.

Jon Favreau: Thanks for having me.

Kara Swisher: Your book that's coming out is called *Democracy or Else: How to Save America in 10 Easy Steps*. When's it coming out?

Jon Favreau: It's coming out June 26th.

Kara Swisher: Oh, so soon.

Jon Favreau: My co-authors and I, Jon Lovett and Tommy Vietor, will be on the road doing a book tour just like you are now. You can pre-order it now at crooked.com slash books.

Kara Swisher: Yeah. Anyway, he's also the co-founder of Crooked Media and host of Pod Save America and a bunch of other pods that are terrific, all of which are endorsed by Louis Swisher. Anyway, that's the show. We'll be back on Tuesday with more Pivot and Scott's triumphant return from wherever he's gone. He will tell us all about it. I will read us out.

Kara Swisher: Today's show was produced by Lara Naiman, Zoe Marcus, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Enderdot engineered this episode. Nishat Kirwa is Vox Media's executive producer of audio. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com slash pod. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.