House Judiciary Committee antitrust bills, Microsoft hits $2 trillion, and a prediction on the future of social media

Kara Swisher: Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher.

Scott Galloway: And I have figured out finally in my life what my calling is, Kara.

Kara Swisher: Oh, no. What?

Scott Galloway: I have been called. It is so clear. It is so obvious. I will be portraying John McAfee in the upcoming biopic.

Kara Swisher: Oh, my God. I knew you were a ghoul. It's so obvious. And by the way—

Scott Galloway: You kind of look like him, by the way.

Kara Swisher: Just a little bit with a little hair, a little beard situation. You kind of look like him a little bit. I'll be honest, I do.

Scott Galloway: I do. And let's be honest, if you're going to really embrace the midlife crisis, you have to give John his props. We have some guys going into space in dildos. We have other guys, John McAfee, who ends up marrying a prostitute who was sent to kill him, does blow, kills neighbors, and fakes heart attacks to avoid extradition. This guy was a gangster. I'm sorry, this guy was a gangster.

Kara Swisher: I feel it's a tragic story of mental illness, but okay.

Scott Galloway: There isn't a network, a producer, or someone with an iPhone that is not planning that series right now.

Kara Swisher: Yeah, I knew him a little bit.

Scott Galloway: Did you?

Kara Swisher: Yeah, he was around for... he was a troubled person, let me just say. I'm not going to—

Scott Galloway: Oh, you think? Are we the ones who had it figured out? Maybe so.

Kara Swisher: Maybe so. But let me just say, he kept tweeting he was going to be murder-suicided essentially. And now there's a whole conspiracy theory on the internet, like he's moved into Epstein territory. Was he killed? Was he this? Was he that? He was paranoid. I'm not a doctor, but he was really quite mad. So I don't know what happened to him, but you're right. It's going to be a movie.

Scott Galloway: Well, I heard that he found out that the trial was going to be 30 days. [Pauses] Yeah. Get it? Trial, 30 days.

Kara Swisher: Oh, my God. Oh, my God. Too soon?

Scott Galloway: Too soon. Too soon.

Kara Swisher: I'm going to— you know what? People, there are real people in trouble. There's a chilling story from the Wall Street Journal. You detail how the Ant Group, Jack Ma's company, is in talks with the Chinese government to create a new credit scoring company that would result in a trove of data on Chinese citizens' finances being released to the state. This takeover of Jack Ma is to me the most chilling story, in terms of having been this entrepreneur, celebrated in China. You and I have talked about this. And then they're just taking apart piece by piece. He's such a fascinating character. Talk about a story. I'd really love to know more about it, how it happened and what they decided to do and the decision-making here, because it's really chilling.

Scott Galloway: This reminds me of when MBS decided that there were too many people making too much money outside of the control of the ruling family or the kingdom. He basically put them all in the Ritz-Carlton and said, "I'm glad you could all make it today. Nobody's leaving until you give us X percent of your wealth and acknowledge over the next 48 hours that we're in charge." And yeah, I think this is somewhat similar. These companies have become so powerful. I would like more coverage of China, what's going on with the bitcoin stuff. It's explicit autocracy, and it's an interesting move right now as our relations with them become more tense. I think it's only going that direction as they compete for internet hegemony. It goes to some very ugly places. If the government has access to not only your financial records but your credit score and can decide that if your emails include anti-government rhetoric, they take your credit score down so you can't buy airline tickets or pay tuition. That is powerful. Alipay has a billion customers.

Kara Swisher: Which is the same as the thing that Chuck Todd is very excited about, Peacock. Oh, wait, no, that's 10 million. So, financial. Someone has to be excited about Peacock. Hi, Chuck Todd, who did not take me up on the invitation for drinks.

Scott Galloway: Yeah, people noticed that.

Kara Swisher: He's excited about Peacock. Nonetheless, there are lots of stories out of China. There's another one in the Times about a real estate company mogul and his friend who got put in jail for eight years for distributing one anti-Chinese thing.

Scott Galloway: Wait, Ant Financial, though. A billion people use Ant Financial. 200 million use Netflix. Ant Financial has five times the customer base of Netflix. These things are just so massive. You know who I was thinking about this morning? I'm curious if you were thinking about this too. You know whose value just got cut by 30% with this move?

Kara Swisher: Who?

Scott Galloway: The most exciting company in the last two years: TikTok. Because if all of a sudden every gangster internet company is perceived globally as an apparatus for the Chinese security forces, are you really going to want your kids using TikTok?

Kara Swisher: As usual, you come out with an interesting insight. I agree with you. We've got to keep on this story. This China story is really developing, and there are all kinds of things happening. In this country, Warren Buffett is stepping down at the Gates Foundation as a trustee. I think he's older. Who knows if it was internal politics. I don't know anything about the future of the Gates Foundation, but he's probably cutting back on lots of stuff. It's another end of an era for sure. Those two had a love fest, him and Gates.

Scott Galloway: I think you've got to let the guy take a victory lap. I think it's incredible. My father is turning 91. He's in exceptional shape, worked out his whole life, got me into working out, has lived a fairly healthy life, is thin, swims every day. And I'll tell you, 90 is rough. I think it's incredible that Warren Buffett has been as impressive as he is at 90. The fact that he's stepping back and doesn't feel the need to get on a plane and go to board meetings four times a year— well done.

Kara Swisher: I had dinner with him a couple years ago. He was very lively, although you could just see he was elderly. He was definitely slower, but then he ate a plate of meat as big as my head and then ate the stuff on my plate. So I felt like, all right, okay. Lively as can be, but it's an interesting thing. I think it'll be interesting to see where the Gates Foundation goes with this. Melinda has her own stuff she's going to be working on. Obviously Gates has dedicated his life to the Gates Foundation, and both of them have. Working together is going to be— especially given what looks like a pretty acrimonious divorce. It doesn't necessarily have to be, given there's so much money to go around, but it doesn't look like a pretty divorce. The Gates Foundation has been the most important philanthropy of this past 15, 20 years.

Scott Galloway: You've said that. You said you think this is a big deal.

Kara Swisher: It is. I don't quite know what— I don't know anything about it, but it's definitely going to settle out at some point. It'll be the Bill Gates Foundation, essentially. But who knows? And then they have children, and we'll see how involved they are. They're older children— I mean, they're not children, they're adults. I think it'll be just fine.

Scott Galloway: I think so too. My understanding is it's always had a great reputation. I remember meeting Patty Stonesifer like 15 years ago. She was a really impressive woman, and she was running it at the time. My sense is they have great management, and I think they both have a vested interest in it, regardless of what happens between them. They have a vested interest in making sure that it's effective.

Kara Swisher: I always have an issue with these foundations owned by rich people. I was offered a job at one of them, by a billionaire I like. I literally said to this billionaire, "I can't work for one billionaire." Who knows if you go crazy, or if you've got a crazy partner, or your kids? It doesn't feel stable to me to have a kingdom, essentially. That's why I turned it down. I just couldn't say no to you, essentially. Anyway, it was an interesting thing. We'll see where it goes. I think they've done it.

Scott Galloway: That's called having a boss. I don't understand the difference between that.

Kara Swisher: No, but you have a boss and you have an actual person who owns the money. It's a different thing. That's why a lot of these things happen to these internet companies. People can't talk to the boss. That's what happened with Bill Gates at Microsoft.

Scott Galloway: Yeah, I guess.

Kara Swisher: Speaking of power, Britney Spears and her bombshell statement to a Los Angeles judge about ending the conservatorship. The New York Times did a really interesting documentary about it. She's been under it for 13 years. She said she's been compelled to work against her will, drugged, not able to make choices about her physical health. She's got a real contingent of people trying to free her. A conservatorship is for people who are in some way incapacitated. She certainly had mental health issues. But she's been working steadily up until 2019 when she decided not to work anymore. She's at odds with her father as a financial conservator. He gets a salary, gets a percentage of any deals he signs. She's worth $60 million. For comparison, J-Lo is worth $150 million. Britney has sold more albums worldwide than J-Lo. Britney is paying for both sides in the legal battle. It's a really interesting issue. I actually watch her Instagram because it's full of clues. I don't know why I'm compelled by this woman who seems like she's definitely got mental health issues. But it feels like what's happened here is beyond belief. The article that was forwarded around, you read it and it's disturbing. Granted, it felt like you were getting one side of the story. But you know what it reminded me of?

Scott Galloway: The mother and the sister are on her side. But go ahead.

Kara Swisher: The fantastic film— I think probably Jessica Lange's best film. Do you remember a movie called *Frances* back in the 80s?

Scott Galloway: Yes. Oh, yeah.

Kara Swisher: It had echoes of that. What happens when the institutions or governments fail someone in this situation. It sounds like they can even fail people with a lot of money and what you would think is a lot of power.

Scott Galloway: She's been taken advantage of by a lot of people. That guy who was sort of running her stuff too. Here's the thing: when you look around and everyone around you is being paid by you, you've got a real problem. You can't get any good advice from anyone if everyone is your employee on some level or benefits from your working. I think it's fascinating. She refuses to work. She put up something that was just lovely about her two kids. She and her sons— who knows what's going on behind the scenes— but it was one of those lovely pictures of her with her kids saying, "I'm so proud of them." Who knows with Instagram, but it felt like— people make fun of it, talking about the Kardashians or whatever, but you have to go watch this New York Times documentary. You're sort of like, "Let her out, dad. What is going on here?" It should be a really big case someday, but she's certainly been hindered. At the same time, she certainly needs help. It's a fascinating legal story.

Kara Swisher: But we have to move on to big stories.

Scott Galloway: But Britney Spears was right: my loneliness is killing me. I'm thinking of putting you under a conservatorship.

Kara Swisher: That's my way of saying I have absolutely nothing to say about this.

Scott Galloway: I'm thinking of declaring myself your conservator. I kind of like that. I like it when other people are in charge. Letting you stay in a tiny little room of your giant house. I like it when people order me around.

Kara Swisher: I like other people in charge.

Scott Galloway: Me and your wife are going to put you under watch. And then we're going to make you work.

Kara Swisher: You're making this sound as if that would be a new thing. What do you think this podcast— anyway, I'm not even going to go there.

Scott Galloway: It's true.

Kara Swisher: I'm not even going to go there. Okay, that's true. I want out, Judge. I want out. This has been an abusive relationship. I'd like the legal right to make you do things.

Scott Galloway: I'd like a legal right to do this.

Kara Swisher: All right, big stories. We're moving on to big stories. The House Judiciary Committee is considering a package of sweeping antitrust bills. I talked about it this week a little bit with you. They would rein in big tech companies. Last week, the House introduced a total of six bills that would take sweeping antitrust measures directed at big tech. The bipartisan bills would be the most aggressive challenge to Silicon Valley in Washington, D.C. But this week, lawmakers are already facing pushback. The New York Times is reporting that Apple's CEO, Tim Cook, called Nancy Pelosi and other lawmakers, calling the antitrust bills rushed— although it's been 10 years, Tim. Advisors from Amazon and Google have spoken out against the bills. I did talk to Representative David Cicilline about this, who's been on Pivot. He thinks they're going to go through and that this is the way to do it, very slowly with each of them. The only bill that probably is going to pass is more fees for the FTC and mergers in order to pay for enforcement. The others are going to have a real tough row. What do you think about where these are? Tech companies are not happy.

Scott Galloway: I think you're about to see a ton of money splashed around Republican candidates.

Kara Swisher: Really? Why?

Scott Galloway: Big tech will say that the way you defeat an enemy is you atomize them. The most dangerous thing about these bills right now is there's a certain level of bipartisan support. If I were the chief lobbyist for this group, I would say our job is to atomize the competition. The easiest way to do that right now is to politicize the argument as being anti-business, get every Republican on our side, and then have a couple moderate Democrats come across as pro-business and water down some stuff. That's how I would be strategizing. The way they get to Republicans— Democrats pursue power as a means to an ideological end. Republicans pursue power in and of itself. They just want political power. I think you're going to see a lot of freshmen and early-term Republican congressmen and senators all of a sudden start to get a lot of money from the lobbying groups from big tech. They're going to go hard first after the Republicans. It's going to be a war, but it's the same way with tobacco.

Kara Swisher: The GOP has been very anti-tech. Whether it's Ted Cruz or Jim Jordan, who's on this committee. There's a lot of infighting. There shouldn't be alliances between them. Ken Buck didn't really want to talk to me because he didn't want to be seen talking with a Democrat, with David Cicilline. I don't know. I just think they've made these alliances, which I think are the right thing to do. But then there are the issues around conservative bias, which a lot of people on that side don't think has been addressed enough here. I think they're going to make a lot of noise about that. The other part is this anti-business feeling. Republicans naturally want to be pro-business, although recently that's not been the case. It's going to be an interesting thing because they just can't let go of this conservative bias issue. Most of these bills do not have a chance of passing. Even Cicilline sort of acknowledged that. The only one was the one about enforcement money going to the FTC, which seems like a very easy lift. Some of them are quite complex in terms of what they want to do. It really does shove the hand of government into the market rather substantively. I think they have a good argument that that's the case.

Scott Galloway: Here's where it will work. Between now and whenever this thing might happen— optimistically a couple years, most likely the better part of a decade for this to really become new antitrust law and be implemented— big tech is going to continue to mess up. They're going to continue to damage the commonwealth. There'll be new scandals, new cover-ups, new evidence that our children are a lot worse off, new evidence that these platforms get weaponized by bad actors. So I have a lot of faith, not in the Republicans or the Democrats coming together, but in big tech to continue to abuse the commonwealth and the mental well-being of a lot of people. They won't say, "We need to figure this out and be on our best behavior." There's a level of arrogance there. They believe they can get away with almost anything. I don't think that's changed. I don't think they feel chastened by this.

Kara Swisher: There was a poll that showed that most people don't really— like 50% were like, "Yeah, whatever." There's not a big hue and cry to do something about this, except among the chattering class like ourselves. People didn't just say, "Seatbelts, everybody." That was a small group of people who pushed for those. Or cigarettes, or opiates. There is indication that people like tech and the uses of it. Of all the many things they could be concerned about, this one's not high on the list. Although 53% were concerned. Others were like, "Yeah, whatever, 40%. I've got to worry about this, this, and this." Tech's strength is inertia in people and that they like these tools. At the same time, they're like, "Oh, are they spying on us?" It's not like China here. It's like China, but not. They're not trying to— they're just trying to sell us toilet paper. It's going to be interesting. I don't think they're going to pass much of it. But the idea of splitting them up, I think was smart from these legislators, taking them piece by piece. The other part is they want to do this so that later they can focus on all consolidation— whether it's pharmacy, caskets, meat processing. There are all kinds of areas that have consolidated. But tech is the lowest hanging fruit. We'll see. I think it's interesting that Tim Cook called Pelosi and that they're being much more aggressive. Margrethe Vestager took aim at Google. She doesn't care if she loses sometimes. She's just keeping up the artillery fire. She took aim at an investigation of Google. She's going to go after Amazon soon, and especially with Spotify and Apple. That's the next thing moving onto her plate. Europe is certainly not sitting back. But in the U.S., it's a slow process.

Scott Galloway: The cohort we haven't discussed— we talked about the general public being busy with their own lives, sort of interested but not really. You called us the chattering class.

Kara Swisher: We're the chattering class. We chatter. Chit chat.

Scott Galloway: That's right. I'm part of the McAfee gang. "Oh, you're here to have sex with me for money? Oh no, you're here to kill me. Let's get married. I like the cut of your jib." Anyway, that totally caught you. But go ahead. The cohort I can only think about is prostitutes sent to kill me and Chuck Todd. Those are the only two things on my mind. I'm going to go for drinks with Chuck Todd and send you a picture from there.

Kara Swisher: I do that too. Why? Anyway, we're not even going to go into that.

Scott Galloway: The cohort you left out, and the cohort that will ultimately push a lot of this legislation over the line, is business that isn't big tech. I don't care if you're L'Oreal. I don't care if you're Yelp. You hate these guys. The FANG stocks are 25% of the S&P, but the other 75% hate that 25%. They have been abused by them. They feel they play by a different set of rules. They feel like if they do anything remotely similar, antitrust is all over them. They have consumer pushback. And they see these guys upping the rents on them across everything they do— whether it's buying keywords, selling into Amazon.

Kara Swisher: Hollywood, too. You're not leaving out Hollywood.

Scott Galloway: Or they see the tax breaks they get. They have lobbyists too. So it won't be the general public. I think an alliance that will be performed here, the people in the background, will be the rest of business saying, "These guys are hurting the economy, and they're hurting us."

Kara Swisher: The Rupert Murdochs of the world, the Disneys— for sure. Why not take advantage? A sausage manufacturer that is sick of being abused by Amazon's buyers in Wisconsin. You're going to see all kinds. Small and big businesses. I talk to these guys. I get emails every day saying, "You have no idea the level of abuse we are subject to."

Scott Galloway: When 50 cents on the dollar is e-commerce dollars through Amazon and you have to be in e-commerce, you have to be on Amazon. Then you have to comply with their increasingly onerous, higher ransom to stay on Amazon.

Kara Swisher: Consumers, they do deliver. I got a tweet from someone saying, "I think logistics at Amazon are terrible." I was like, "No." I literally ordered something. I'm up in a place in Rhode Island. I ordered some stuff, and it was a day early. I didn't think it was going to come from 5 to 8 in the morning the next minute I ordered it. But it was here very early on time. The guy delivered. I said, "Oh, you're a day early." He goes, "Yeah, we try to stay ahead of the competition." I said, "Is there competition?" And the guy was like, "Not really." He said this is the Amazon delivery guy. It was so funny. I was like, "Is there?" He's like, "No." It was fascinating how good they are. Anyway, you're correct, Scott. Other big businesses are going to try to fight these businesses. But tech is here to play. They're going to pressure every single lawmaker on this and try to water it down significantly. Very few of these bills are going to pass, at least in this session. We'll just have to see where it goes from there. And again, the Republicans can't give up. They just can't quit the idea that they're being discriminated against, which they are not. There's no evidence. It's evidence-proof. Fine, let them believe that. Whatever it takes. If that's what's required, let them believe that.

Scott Galloway: That's essentially what David Cicilline said.

Kara Swisher: "No, no, there really are aliens. Fine, just do what we want." David Cicilline kind of said that. "I don't agree with that, but I want them to focus on the power of big tech." All right, Scott, let's go on a quick break. We'll come back to talk about Microsoft becoming a $2 trillion company. It entered that area, and a listener mail question.

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Kara Swisher: All right, Scott. Microsoft just hit a $2 trillion market cap. That makes Microsoft only the second U.S. company to join the elite group at $2 trillion, after Apple. People never pay attention to Microsoft. Microsoft was largely left out of these bills we just talked about. Microsoft reached the $2 trillion milestone just over two years after first passing the $1 trillion market cap. Microsoft's stock has gained 64% since the pandemic lockdowns started in the United States in March 2020. Microsoft is also launching its new Windows 11 this week. Remember how that used to be a big deal? Well, it's back again. We have Yusuf Mehdi, the Microsoft Vice President of Modern Life, Search, and Devices— I've known him a long time— on the show next week to talk more about the leaps at Microsoft. So what do you think? We've talked about Satya Nadella hitting all the cylinders here, quietly so in the background. They kind of got out of these bills by making some changes so it only focuses on Amazon, Apple, Facebook, and Google. What do you think?

Kara Swisher: There's no getting around it. It's actually the third company to hit two trillion. Saudi Aramco hit it briefly. But look, there are two things that I think have pushed it over $2 trillion. The first is a business reason, and then a non-business reason. They are a cloud. And I think of them not only as cloud, but they're kind of the purest play cloud. If you look at Amazon, you might not guess it's a big cloud player, even if you look at Google. But Microsoft...

Scott Galloway: They're not the two trillion dollar club. Those two aren't.

Kara Swisher: Google and Amazon, yeah. The question is which of those two will probably be next. I think it'll be Amazon. But anyways, yeah. They're firing on all cylinders: cloud, enterprise software, gaming. But the other thing they benefit from enormously, and it can't be underestimated, is the likability of Satya Nadella. Because it's B2B, because they haven't been subject to as many scandals, because we're not worried about PowerPoint weaponizing an election or depressing our teens. Satya Nadella is really well-liked. Microsoft has kind of gone from being Darth Vader to a Wookiee. They're just sort of big and powerful and quiet and likable. This is huge because every time Facebook, Google, Apple, or Amazon think, "We're missing a key component of the supply chain here, get the bankers in here, here are the five companies we'd acquire, reach out to two of them," they have to go, "Can we do that?" Whereas Microsoft can just full steam ahead on their plan. There are probably acquisitions they've made that they got. They've managed to get out of this thing. These new bills have the word "mobile" in there, which Microsoft failed in essentially. A lobbyist was telling me that Microsoft has correctly, and not correctly, has deftly gotten out of these bills because of wording. Another person that doesn't get as much attention, not just Satya Nadella, is Brad Smith, who has been writing books about responsibility. He's the one that actually convinced Gates and Ballmer to calm the fuck down during that period. It's a really interesting thing because they are incredibly powerful, but they've managed to slip out of a lot of things. The market cap of Amazon is $1.77 trillion and Google is $1.67 trillion. So they're getting close. Sundar Pichai got dinged this week in a piece in the Times about his lack of decision making, a lot of executives leaving, and sort of becoming like an old thing. But he's still facing enormous pressures around search. So you're right.

Scott Galloway: So where does Microsoft go? They've been doing all this really deft stuff in gaming. Obviously, cloud. They've made some really interesting purchases. The gaming stuff is fascinating, and people have not paid as much attention to it. But obviously, Windows is still sort of the scary tip of the spear of everything else. They've done a lot of stuff. They've moved into the Defense Department. They did win that JEDI contract over Amazon, although that's now in dispute, which we should ask Yusuf about. But what do you imagine they're going to do next?

Kara Swisher: More of the same. AI. They're already a leader in AI. They're really strong in mobile computing. It took them 33 years to get to a trillion, and then it took them about 24 months to get to two trillion. And I don't know if you've heard, but they talk about an exciting, enormous contract. They've won the cloud services contract for Peacock with 10 million users.

Scott Galloway: 10 million users. Peacock.

Kara Swisher: Oh, my God.

Scott Galloway: When Peacock becomes really successful, you're going to have to eat your words.

Kara Swisher: I am going to have to eat my words. I was watching Peacock. They have some good stuff on there.

Scott Galloway: Said no one ever.

Kara Swisher: Not much.

Scott Galloway: Said, "Oh, you actually were." I'm sorry. Go ahead.

Kara Swisher: No, I'm just telling you. They're not on Netflix. Jean-Luc Picard, Trevor Noah, or Starship Commander Jean-Luc Picard, which, by the way, is my Halloween outfit every year. Huge crowd loser.

Scott Galloway: He's great. I met him once at dinner at the Shakespeare Theater. He's lovely, right? Tell me he's lovely.

Kara Swisher: Oh, my God. He was so dreamy. He was dreamy and smart and erudite. He was exactly what you'd hope. He was not like, "Hey, how you doing?" No, he was totally classy.

Scott Galloway: He's a classic.

Kara Swisher: Let's hit the strip clubs, bitch.

Scott Galloway: Yeah. No, he was lovely.

Kara Swisher: How that popped up. I am so channeling John McAfee today.

Scott Galloway: I see that.

Kara Swisher: I wish you don't end up like John McAfee. In any case, we'll talk about this with Yusuf because I think Microsoft is a really interesting example. You sort of see the future of some of these other companies if they did things right. At the same time, it still has the same issues around power and dominance in lots of areas. And they do slip out of it because they're not damaging in the way the others are so explicitly damaging. But still, the concentration of power is problematic no matter what you do, and the concentration of wealth. But you're right. Satya really has handled it in a way that is much more deft. He's coming to Code, so we'll be able to talk to him about that.

Scott Galloway: Yeah, he's coming to Code.

Kara Swisher: What about Donald Picard? He was like a nobody. Same thing with Yusuf. He was a lower level, not lower level, but he was just a product manager of a bunch of divisions. He used to be, I always enjoyed talking to him. There were a lot of real jackasses at Microsoft. He was not among them. And Yusuf is the same way, which is interesting. So we'll talk to him. It'll be interesting to see what happens. But they have stayed out of the limelight. So we'll see where they go. Who will get to the next $2 trillion cup, Google or Amazon? You said Amazon. You think it's Amazon?

Scott Galloway: I think the business that will gain the most market capitalization over the next several years is Amazon, and it'll be on the backs of their entry into healthcare. I think the most exciting thing coming...

Kara Swisher: Was that enough? You don't want any color? You got what you needed?

Scott Galloway: You got what you needed, you're done.

Kara Swisher: No, I know. I want to hear more. Go ahead. Seriously. I have an idea. I want to control you.

Scott Galloway: Oh, really? In the future.

Kara Swisher: I do control you. Anyways, so look, I think the most exciting thing coming out of the pandemic from a business level is that we might be able to push 18% of our economy, healthcare, and disperse it away from doctors' offices and hospitals into smartphones and smart speakers. And take healthcare from a defensive-driven, disease-driven industry, onto our toes, more of a health-driven industry. The organization that has all the assets to do it is Amazon. When 18% of the economy all of a sudden goes up for grabs, I think it's going to be... I don't know who's next to 2 trillion, but I do think the first to 3 trillion is going to be Amazon on the back of healthcare.

Kara Swisher: Yeah, all right. What does Microsoft buy? I'm going to let you run some more, Scott, and then we'll get to a listener mail question.

Scott Galloway: I don't know. I agree with you. The only thing... Oh, and by the way, I have to correct the record again. It's like the third show in a row. I hate it when people take us seriously.

Kara Swisher: You mean a fact checker.

Scott Galloway: The place relative to the size of the business that gets the least amount of attention, and you said this, is gaming. Microsoft has a foothold in gaming, and it's supposed to continue to grow. It's a great business. It foots to their confidence. So I would imagine that in addition to AI and cloud, which are amazing businesses, Microsoft will continue to be a key player in gaming. If you look at all media, traditional media, cable, the two things that are growing are streaming and gaming.

Kara Swisher: Yeah. Gaming is like 100... I mean, it's just crazy. We need to focus. We're obsessed with talking about the motion picture industry. The total domestic box office receipts are $7 billion. Gaming is like $150 billion.

Scott Galloway: It is indeed.

Kara Swisher: I mean, it just doesn't. We had this issue when I ran All Things D. We should have paid more. People didn't want to read about it, even though it was bigger. I know it sounds crazy, but it was true.

Scott Galloway: Top scholar in the world on gaming, Joost van Drun at NYU. He's very good.

Kara Swisher: Well, let's have Joost on then to tell us about it, to teach us. How about that? Why don't you use your very tenuous relationship with NYU to get us?

Scott Galloway: Let me just say, I'm going to make a prediction. Yost and I are on good terms. I think Microsoft is going to come back with TikTok. They wanted that TikTok. I think they're going to relook at TikTok.

Kara Swisher: You're right, they're in a state with the situation with China. It's going to get worse. Microsoft and TikTok, they were in there very interested. We'll see. That would be a really interesting acquisition for them. And we can ask Yusuf some of this all on Monday. Okay, Scott, let's pivot to a listener question. Roll tape. You've got mail.

[Listener question plays]

Kara Swisher: Hello, Kara and Scott. It's Mark here, an American Kiwi calling from Auckland, New Zealand. I love what you both have to say about climate change. I love that you both acknowledge the climate crisis. But I have been noticing that even though you talk about it very occasionally on the show, you don't give climate a lot of space on the show, and you definitely don't mention it as much as COVID. However, we are starting to get reports that the climate crisis is going to cost much more than COVID has and cause much more disruption. Your recent talking about the G7, you talked about the tax treaty, but not about the impacts of G7 countries and fossil fuel companies putting in gas projects in the global south, hooking them into more fossil fuels. We'd love to hear more.

Kara Swisher: We have a lot of fans in New Zealand. Yes, I do. Because, Mark, that is not true. I've interviewed not just Bill Gates about this. I've discussed his book. I've done several columns about the climate crisis and discussed it a lot. We should talk more about it here, though. What are the cool companies that are moving forward, whether it's carbon capture, whether it's all kinds of interventions, even space travel is part of that, the idea of moving ourselves off this planet because of the dangers of climate crisis. I've talked to food people. I've done interviews. I talk a lot about it in a more substantive way. And we should do that here, just like with gaming. I think Scott is right. This is an area that is going to be both an opportunity and a real potential for huge economic destruction over the years. Whether you're thinking about, I happen to be in coastal Rhode Island, and they're talking about hurricanes coming through and devastating these areas. The amount of that is just one place. Whether you're in Scottsdale or Florida, it's a big issue. People are going to start to think about this. This idea of getting to zero carbon emissions is critically important. The fact that our governments keep slow rolling this, it doesn't really matter. The earth is going to do what it wants on some level. But I think the cost of damage of climate change compared to COVID is massive. Massive, massive, massive. And the deaths that are going to be the result of it, massive. I think we're probably not going to see it as much in developed countries because they can protect themselves. Unfortunately, when people die in other places that we don't pay attention to, nobody pays attention to them. So anyway, this one thing which we did talk about was Gary Gensler adding climate report cards for companies. The tech companies are leading the way with renewable. Amazon announced it's going to buy renewable energy sources to cover the company's activities. They've been doing offsets. It's just the beginning step. So, Scott, what do you think? I think it's going to be an important part of corporate speaking to the public, correct? And not just virtue signaling.

Scott Galloway: Yeah, I mean, I always look at the line. I'm cynical about big tech. It's much easier for someone in a digital business, a software-driven business, to be very indignant about climate change versus someone that's actually manufacturing things. It's a totally different look. It's great that they're taking it on. Something that has made me much more environmentally aware is COVID specifically. When emissions dropped by something like 20 or 30 percent in the first 12 weeks of the pandemic last year, there was a noticeable change in how clear the water was, how crisp the air was. And I thought, my god, why wouldn't we decide this is the new normal? I wasn't even thinking about all the devastation of weather events, but just selfishly going out. Think about how housing prices have accelerated 11% or 13% quarter on quarter. We spend millions of dollars. It is such an incredible lift for each of us and our families to get into a nice home. Housing has become so expensive if you want to own in the U.S. Why wouldn't we, all of us, make a fraction of the financial effort and focus on making our backyard exceptional? I'm just so blown away by how beautiful my backyard got. And when I say my backyard, I mean the sea, the land, and the sky. The reason I don't talk about it a lot is there are certain categories that are so important that if you don't have domain expertise, and this is how I'm sort of evolving as a person, you shut the fuck up. The reality is I don't really have a lot of domain expertise. Whenever you say anything, including anything I said here, there's a religious fervor around this topic. People come out, it's impossible to say anything that doesn't piss people off, especially if you don't have domain expertise. My good friend Bob Perkowitz at Echo America, he said something. I bring everything back to me, but when you talk about the power of this stuff, I just look at it through the lens of how I've come to embrace the outdoors. When one of my sons was struggling, he said, "All you need to do is get them outside." It's one of the most restorative things you can do. So the bottom line is I'm trying to be more thoughtful about this stuff because I realized not only how important climate change is, but just how wonderful the outdoors is. It's a great endorsement. But anyways, it's a huge topic. I don't think either of us aren't supporters of it or don't recognize the problem. It's just best when you don't know.

Kara Swisher: I think it would be really interesting as an exercise for you to look at where the investment opportunities are. I wrote something in a column last year and I said the world's first trillionaire, speaking of trillionaires, will be a climate change technologist. I made that up. I was just trying to say this is an area of great economic opportunity to try to figure these things out. But behind just mitigation, which is carbon capture and everything else, where is the real innovation going to happen? In smart manufacturing, smart home building, smart food making. There's so much shift that could happen here. Just like with coal, beyond coal cleaned it up. We still have a dirty world, but it's not as dirty as London used to be. What is the way that we can make this an economic opportunity, which is a way to spur innovation for a lot of people? I'd love to start thinking about what are the cool companies, what are the companies that are most interesting, and what are going to be the biggest companies in our world. Whoever dominates this is going to be a very important player in the next 20 years.

Scott Galloway: Yeah, and it's one of those things too that it feels like the weather events or climate change-inspired catastrophes, whether it's the wildfires of California or rising sea levels, it feels like we went from there being so many of them so fast. It feels as if we hit some sort of tipping point.

Kara Swisher: Yeah, that's what they say. We're becoming a little bit numb to it. But it's something like 80% of the crazy wildfires that have ever happened in California have happened in the last decade.

Scott Galloway: Yeah, yeah.

Kara Swisher: You know what we're going to do, Scott? Go ahead and finish.

Scott Galloway: At PivotCon in Miami, we're going to do a section on this, on the interesting companies.

Kara Swisher: Yeah. But the thing that's so disappointing again about something that's so important is how the hell did this get politicized? Republicans, Teddy Roosevelt, the first great environmentalist was a Republican. When did we all decide if you're on the left, you have to be... There's a lot of what I would call unreasonable conversations on the left around the environment, not acknowledging that people at the end of the day, regardless of what's right or wrong, will vote for their economic interests. Unless you address economic growth in the context of climate change, you're just not going to have a productive conversation. And then on the right, they want to be science deniers.

Scott Galloway: Right.

Kara Swisher: Well, how did we get here, folks? I find whenever... How the fuck did we politicize obesity, masking, environment? Everything. Something that we all appear to have a shared, vested interest in figuring out. Everything is politicized now. But maybe it won't be in the future. Anyway, Mark, American Kiwi, we think this is important. We should do our homework on this and gaming.

Scott Galloway: Okay, Scott, those are the two things.

Kara Swisher: Well, I wonder what Chuck Todd thinks.

Scott Galloway: No, I don't. I don't care. Chuck Todd.

Kara Swisher: Chuck Todd, you and your... I'm excited about Peacock.

Scott Galloway: Peacock. I'm excited about Peacock. Peacock. Say it like that.

Kara Swisher: Let's have a Peacock show and have nobody watch it. Anyway, Scott, one more quick break. We'll be back for predictions.

[Ad break]

Kara Swisher: Okay, Scott, predictions. Go for it.

Scott Galloway: I made my little prediction about Microsoft. Do you make one now? The most exciting thing about antitrust is that it's oxygenating for the environment. And when I say the environment, I mean the business environment. We're about to see a massive amount of innovation in categories where there was a dearth of startups because people saw monopoly power. There hasn't been a social network of any size in America launched since 2011. That was Pinterest. In the next 24 months, we'll see two or three new viable, robust startups in social media. We're going to see new hardware companies. We're going to see new search engines. We already see subscription search engine Neva. We're going to see new ad tech platforms. Companies and their backers are going to believe that it's a credible threat that these companies are about to be broken up. Antitrust is coming. One of the reasons I invested in Neva is that the best reason you wouldn't invest is, "Okay, let's assume it works. Let's assume people are concerned about privacy, want subscription search, but Google can just go, 'Hey, let's take a thousand engineers and a billion dollars and put them out of business.'" Guess what? They can't do that now because the antitrust cops are on the beat for the first time. Well, we hope. So you're going to start to see more funding and more M&A. There's going to be more funding, more new startups, more M&A in the ad tech, social media, search, even computer hardware space in the next 24 months. It's going to be evidence of what a key component of capitalism competition is. And we're all going to look back and think, why the hell did we not break up these guys sooner?

Kara Swisher: I don't know. I've got to push back. You're skeptical. I think the empire is going to strike back. I think we're on the axle of politics that's going to mess up this whole thing. It's going on in every bill in the Senate. This is to their advantage. And they also are liked by people. It's going to be a much harder road to bring these people down in the way that people need to do.

Scott Galloway: But it's already impacting business. There's an interesting thing. A lot of people will argue that the value of antitrust isn't in actually an antitrust action. It's in the scrutiny. The fact that right now, Google, Facebook, and Apple aren't... They're being very careful right now. It's already having an impact on the ecosystem.

Kara Swisher: Yeah, fair to them. That is a fair point. You're 100% right. We'll see what goes on. I think one of the things you mentioned last week, Lina Kahn being hindered only by courts. There was a big Bloomberg story saying exactly this thing. What's really going to happen, as happened in Europe and elsewhere, is these companies go to court. And they win because of more conservative justices or jurists. So that's really where the problem is. Ultimately, they're going to win. It's going to be a long slog. Eventually, those with money and means often win. So we'll see where it goes. But I afforded you that story because you just mentioned it off the top of your head because you were brilliant. And you know who I think started a really robust social network?

Scott Galloway: Who?

Kara Swisher: Peloton.

Scott Galloway: You keep saying that. I'm waiting. The passion, the demographic there, and the engagement. I think they could start a... I think niche social media platforms are going to start to emerge. I think Peloton's going to start the first streaming networks, niche streaming networks. It's sort of like old cable coming back.

Kara Swisher: Anyway, that's a very good prediction. We'll see where it goes. We're going to be following that legislation very closely. Your prediction, I like yours more. Yours is that TikTok and Microsoft will talk about their benefit. They're Ben and Jennifer thinking about getting back together.

Scott Galloway: Great. Are you happy about that?

Kara Swisher: Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck, for those who are not paying attention, and I don't want to speak to any of you more, is that their publicist dating? It's like neither of us have a lot going on professionally. They had a whole thing going on.

Scott Galloway: No, I don't think they're that cynical. Come on. Look, they've both been through the ringer, especially him. He's been round after round of drinking and addiction. Come on, he's John McAfee with better hair.

Kara Swisher: I would like to roll. Now that John is gone, I would like to roll with Ben Affleck in Vegas. And who was he with before that beautiful actress? Anyway, he...

Scott Galloway: Jennifer Garner.

Kara Swisher: So anyway, I'm very happy. I don't care if it's fake. I like it. I like the Bennifer.

Scott Galloway: I like Bennifer.

Kara Swisher: I met him once. He used to come to Ron Conway's Angel Investor things. I remember just sitting there talking to him going, "Jesus Christ, how did this guy get so good looking?" There are people this good looking?

Scott Galloway: Yeah, he's very handsome.

Kara Swisher: Him and Matt Damon were around the tech sector for a short amount of time, so I dealt with them quite a bit. It didn't work out for them. In any case, they were trying to do all these different online things, online entertainment things. Didn't they make a shit ton of money on Uber and stuff?

Scott Galloway: Didn't they make a bunch of money? I think it was Ashton Kutcher in that one.

Kara Swisher: Oh, Ashton, that's right. Ashton Kutcher. We're the new celebrities.

Scott Galloway: We are. Don't you get celebrities calling you talking about tech?

Kara Swisher: No, just you. I already know a lot of celebrities.

Scott Galloway: Go on.

Kara Swisher: I really don't. I don't. But anyway, I don't pick up the phone either. All I need is to control you. I just control you. I just run quietly from behind the scenes.

Scott Galloway: My dream is to control a 56-year-old Jewish professor with erectile dysfunction.

Kara Swisher: Listen, McAfee, we got to go. We got to go now. I got things to do. I've got interviews to do.

Scott Galloway: That guy knew how to roll. That guy knew how to roll.

Kara Swisher: Okay. Rest in peace, my brother. Rest in peace. All right. A little bit of note, he had mental issues and we should all feel bad about what happened to him. Anyway, don't forget...

Scott Galloway: Oops, I did it again.

Kara Swisher: That was good. That was good. That's why I make 40, 50 bucks an hour.

Scott Galloway: I just want to say I'm glad you're not wearing a cheerleader outfit while you do that.

Kara Swisher: Anyway, don't forget, if there's control me... You know what I did yesterday? I went to lunch in a place called Watch Hill, Rhode Island, and I got to view Taylor Swift's house from a long distance, just so you know. That was my day.

Scott Galloway: That is just wrong on so many levels.

Kara Swisher: It's right in the middle of town. You can't not see it. It's enormous. It was like wrong, wrong, and wrong. I love Taylor Swift. It's like when I went to Kennebunkport, which is hugely overrated, and went on a boat tour, and they stopped for five minutes to look at the Bush Estate. I'm like, what is one of those moments?

Scott Galloway: No, the Kennedy Estate. Oh, Kennebunkport. Oh, yeah, yeah. Okay. I thought you meant Hyannis Port. I'm like, what level of bad decisions put me on a boat with 400 tourists from Boston in front spying on the Bush compound?

Kara Swisher: There was nobody spying on Taylor Swift. I just drove by it. I just looked upon it. I love Taylor Swift. There's a song. It's called "Holiday House." We approached it from the water side.

Scott Galloway: Oh, no.

Kara Swisher: And people were taking pictures. I would not do that. No, I just drove past it. It's a lovely town. And it's been written about. It's the most expensive house in Rhode Island. I'm not giving up any information. She wrote a beautiful song you should all listen to called "Holiday House" about it. And it was owned by... Britney Spears? She wrote no, she wrote her own music. I didn't know that Taylor Swift writes all her own music. You know what, it's Taylor Swift I'm talking about, not rather well. And she's a wonderful artist. Anyway, people can disagree on her, but I love her. Anyway, "Holiday House," you should listen to it. Don't forget, if there's a story in the news and you're curious about and want to hear our opinion on, go to nymag.com slash pivot to submit a question for the show. Scott, read us out.

Scott Galloway: Today's show was produced by Rebecca Sinanis. Ernie and Jotty engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows. Make sure you subscribe to the show on Apple Podcasts, or if you're an Android user, check us out on Spotify, or frankly, wherever you listen to podcasts. If you liked our show, please recommend it to a friend. Thanks for listening to Pivot from Vox Media. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business. Who would the dog rather roll with in Vegas, John McAfee or Chuck Todd? The answer is yes.