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--:-- **Pivot Podcast Introduction:**
--:-- Kara Swisher: Hi, everyone. This is Pivot from New York Magazine and the Vox Media Podcast Network. I'm Kara Swisher.
Scott Galloway: And I'm Scott Galloway.
Kara Swisher: And you're listening to our special three-part series on the future of work, where we look at the business and technology trends that will shape the workforce, employment, and the very nature of work. Today, we're kicking it off with our very own predictions about how work will change in the coming years. Scott, let's get straight to it, starting with what might be the biggest factor affecting jobs—artificial intelligence.
--:-- **Discussion on AI:**
--:-- Scott Galloway: Some quick figures. Just in the tech industry alone, AI job listings are up 42% since the rollout of ChatGPT in late 2022. The overall market for IT jobs is down 31% in the same period. Big picture, how does AI affect the overall job market in the next five years and beyond?
--:-- Kara Swisher: You know, interestingly, at an event I had, I was talking to Alex Stamos, who was a CTO, and he thinks this is just going to change and decimate things as people try to get more efficient. And a lot of jobs will be replaced across the workforce. He was talking about tech specifically, stuff that can be automated and done by tech, ideas. You know, everywhere you go, whether it's writing, especially white-collar jobs, this is not a new and fresh idea. Things are going to change. Law associates when they used to need, as he noted, five, they're going to need two. That does free people up to do more intelligent stuff that they can work on and more specific, and it pulls away some jobs. But you're not going to have to have law associates. That's a very typical one. People often point to radiologists. It will give them a better ability to do it, but it will drive efficiency across the universe, essentially, especially white-collar jobs. And that will affect jobs very seriously. And I'm sorry to tell you, CEOs are going to do it because it'll save money. So I think AI will be the most impactful thing in the workforce going forward over anything else—remote.
--:-- Scott Galloway: I largely agree with that. I would describe AI as corporate, as Empik in the short term, and that is it reduces management's cravings for more people. And I don't think CEOs are being straight with their workforces about the immediate impact AI is having, not only on the ground, but just psychologically. I think they are thinking, well, maybe instead of if our plan was to hire 200 people this quarter, maybe we hire 80 and see if we can use AI to fill in the other 120. And it's not a one-for-one replacement. We've talked about this. It's not replacing Joe, the paralegal. It's saying, okay, we only need two Joes and two Susans instead of six paralegals. So armed with the correct AI and the correct tools, they should just become more productive.
--:-- Kara Swisher: Now, having said that, I don't see any reason why this isn't shaping up to have the exact same curve and cadence as every other technology that was supposed to put everyone out of work. There was huge fears around automation, huge fears around computers. And typically what you see is in the short term, you have job destruction, but then the amount of productivity, the amount of additional capital, the amount of new business niches that pop up, end up over the medium and long term actually adding to net employment. And I don't see any reason why that won't happen here. I'm being pitched every day on new AI startups that will create new jobs. And I think this will free up people to do side gigs. My son has downloaded an AI bot to help him buy sneakers during drops. And I can see, I just think there's going to be a million different AI-inspired businesses that will create new employment.
--:-- Scott Galloway: Yeah, it's sort of like talking about the internet did this. Of course, they remember it was going to destroy jobs. I think, look, it's going to destroy some jobs. There's no question. Let's not try to yield a lily hill. It's not going to be all up and to the right for people. You have to look, if you're a leader, you have to look at every cost and this will save costs. If you're a worker or an employee, often white-collar work. How does it help you? And I think I urge people, how can artificial intelligence help you do your job better? And it's not here to save you. It's not here to kill you. Either one, but there's all kinds of efficiencies.
--:-- Kara Swisher: And I think when Tyler Perry, which I think he was a little dramatic because he's a dramatic person, you know, stopped this one facility that he was building, a studio in Atlanta, not spending $800 million because he saw the ChatGPT video service. Sora, I think he was being a little bit early to the situation, but he's not directionally correct is that he doesn't have to have as many studios. He doesn't have to do much as much stuff and it will affect jobs, painters, all kinds of things. And it's just happening. And I, you know, people are like, Kara, that's so terrible that there are not going to be painters. I said, there's not going to be painters. I don't know what to tell you. You're going to have to accept this. You replace this technology with lots of things all the time, whether there used to be blockbuster videos. They're used to a store. You go in and you pick out your video. They all work there. They made the videos. There used to be payphone people. There used to be everything, just like so many things that, you know, there used to be butter churns. That doesn't happen anymore. And so this is, as ugly as it may seem, this can create lots of new opportunities, as Scott said.
--:-- Scott Galloway: So that's what we think. AI, biggest impact, I think.
--:-- **Transition to Hybrid Work:**
--:-- Kara Swisher: Okay, let's move on to another big topic in the future of work, hybrid work and remote work, something we've talked about a ton on Pivot. And again, let me give you some statistics from Forbes. As of last year, nearly 13% of employees work from home, nearly 30% work in a hybrid model. About 59% of people are still heading into the office on a traditional five-day work schedule. Obviously, people that have to be there, stores, things like that, food, that's different. But again, white-collar workers, much more so at home. When I was at Microsoft this week, we did this book thing that they were there, and someone said, it's so nice for everyone to be here. People love being at work. And there's great things about being at work. I think the hybrid model is the way things are going to go, that you are going to go intentionally to work, to do things like listening to me talk about my book or whatever, or get together with your team or have some in-person time.
--:-- Scott Galloway: I know Scott is a little different about how important he thinks in homework.
--:-- Kara Swisher: But I do think, especially women, really like the system where they get to manage their time better and get to decide and still be productive. So I think companies have to remain flexible and more and more companies will do this. This is a trend heading, getting just bigger and bigger. Office space, who knows? I don't know. Scott, your thoughts?
--:-- Scott Galloway: Well, there's a lot of nuance here. So I would argue that remote work is an enormous unlock for people in their 30s and definitely their 40s and 50s who have kids and dogs and a lot of different things pulling at their life and their time. I think remote work has been a disaster for people in their 20s. And that is, I think during your 20s, you're trying to figure out a sense of self. You're trying to establish a series of skills. And the majority of the real lasting skills in the corporate world and also in your personal life are soft skills. And it's very difficult to develop soft skills over a screen. It's difficult to figure out how to read a room. It's difficult to figure out how to establish mentors over Zoom. And also, it's really difficult to meet potential friends, business partners, and mates remotely. And people don't talk about this because the HR person's hair gets on fire here. And so we're now sequestering or now eliminating from young people the opportunity to potentially find friends, mentors, and mates.
--:-- Kara Swisher: And I, you know, people are like, Kara, that's so terrible that there are not going to be painters. I said, there's not going to be painters. I don't know what to tell you. You're going to have to accept this. You replace this technology with lots of things all the time, whether there used to be blockbuster videos. They're used to a store. You go in and you pick out your video. They all work there. They made the videos. There used to be payphone people. There used to be everything, just like so many things that, you know, there used to be butter churns. That doesn't happen anymore. And so this is, as ugly as it may seem, this can create lots of new opportunities, as Scott said.
--:-- Scott Galloway: So that's what we think. AI, biggest impact, I think.
--:-- **Break and Transition to Gig Economy:**
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--:-- Kara Swisher: Scott, we're back with our special series on the future of work. We're giving our predictions about the trends that shape employment and the workforce. Let's get on with our next topic, the gig economy, one we talk about a lot too. Some stats for you here, 64 million Americans freelanced last year. That's about 40% of the workforce. Statista predicts that'll grow to half the workforce by 2027. Gen Z and millennials make up the biggest age group of the gig economy. The industry with the highest proportion of freelancers is arts and design, followed by marketing, according to Upwork.
--:-- Scott Galloway: I'm going to go first here. This is something I've talked about for years. Everyone's going gig. You know, I think that's the way it's going to be, partly because companies want to save and they want more work flexibility. The other, partially people like it. Years ago I said people will have a dozen jobs as opposed to four, something like that. I think people like it, they're used to it. It's another shift, just like being out of the office. And I think it's absolutely going to accelerate. And young people, again, are used to this. This is how they do not think of work as a place they're going to be forever. The next thing and the next thing. I think it is a bit of a shame because I do think it's nice working for a company for a while as a group of people on a team. It's less teamwork when you're doing stuff like this, but I think it's inevitable.
--:-- Kara Swisher: Yeah, gig work or the number of people who identify as independent contractors is up by a third since 2016. It's gone from 27% of employees to 36%. And I think it's part of a larger trend in that is, in some ways, it's smart. I think young people have figured out that you shouldn't be loyal to an organization. If you're a young person or in a culture like Japan, you think of the company as your dad and not going to work for a big company is, you know, deciding not to have a mom or a dad. It's just ingrained into their culture. And I think young people traditionally have been insecure thinking, oh, I don't have a parent company to kind of manage certain aspects of my life from healthcare to, you know, certain boundaries or, you know, the American corporation is a great platform. But I think this new generation says, I am my own platform. I can go on LinkedIn. I can find jobs. I have my own skills. I don't need to be. I mean, I do respect the fact I've always thought loyalty to organizations is basically part of a myth fomented by old people who want young people to go to war and kill themselves to protect their land. Because the organization itself is not animate. It's not sentient. It's not concerned with the condition of your soul. It's not going to take care of you when you're older. So if you don't find a company that makes it worth it for you to not have gigs outside of that job and creates constraints on you that you don't like, young people have more confidence and more access to gig work. And I think it's great.
--:-- Scott Galloway: Where I think gig work turns ugly is when regulators don't force a certain level of wage requirements or this bullshit like fast food companies try to pull a fast one and get people to clock out. I think Uber for a long time was exploiting immigrant labor and basically turning their cars into a payday loan by not ensuring a certain level of minimum wage. So just as the economy is developing around this, I think you are going to need certain levels of protection for them. And also, we just need some level of portable, accessible health insurance. Because one of the things that ties people to regions and to companies, which is bad for the economy because you want to take human capital and allocate it to its greatest resource, is they're worried to leave their company or leave their region because they're worried about losing their health care.
--:-- Kara Swisher: Yeah. So prediction, you imagine this is going to accelerate, that that's going to happen? Regulators are going to require that? Oh gig work going to go up The percentage of people doing gig work Oh it going to go up Young people are more confident They have more access The platforms that used to sequester them from a big I mean when you were 20 30 years ago where did you even advertise your services Did you take out an ad in the classifieds in the newspaper? Now you put on your LinkedIn profile. Now you put up a website saying, I'm a visual designer, or I'm a landscape architect, or I'm a world-class accountant. And you buy some search terms, put up a nice website, talk about it on LinkedIn, maybe write a few articles on Medium or on Substack, and boom, if you're good, people will find you. People like to live elsewhere, too. You know, everyone who's worked for me at Code, they used to be in the Bay Area, like my friend Leah Lorenzano, who was an amazing, ran a lot of our stuff, is living up. Right now, she's covered in snow in Tahoe, but she wanted to live up there, and that's where she lives. She has a very thriving business from there. Like every single person who worked for me in a much more traditional way, although they were all contractors, is much different in much different situations. Living elsewhere, doing other things. Again, it's a much more, it's an easier way to live and you get a lot more options.
--:-- **Transition to Vocational Training:**
--:-- Kara Swisher: Up next, something you and I have discussed before, bachelor's degrees versus technical and vocational training and which will become more valuable. Just to break down the difference, technical and vocational training, also known as trade schools, tend to be shorter program focused on specific practical skills rather than theoretical knowledge from a four-year liberal arts curriculum. The cost of vocational training can be anywhere from a couple thousand to tens of thousands of dollars. The cost of liberal arts degrees, of course, from a private university can cost hundreds of thousands of dollars. A recent New York Times guest essay argued that the rise of AI could lead to a bigger demand for soft skills because the technical stuff will be handled by AI. I think both, but I do think that we have got to lean, we will be leaning into technical and vocational training. It's where the jobs will be. It's where AI doesn't touch things really as much. And that it gives people dignity of work, especially people who cannot afford a four-year college education who don't want it in a lot of ways. And I think a lot more young people will be vying for a very different way of working. This happens in Europe all the time, okay? It's looked at as a good thing, workers like this. And I think it's a good way to stop people from becoming radicalized, especially workers who are becoming much more radicalized in a weird way of conspiracy theories and all kinds of stuff. And I think it's a great way to build a strong society. And I think that we should be leaning into it. I think we will be leaning into it. And it's where the work is.
--:-- Scott Galloway: I'm a big fan of vocational training. And I think that we have shamed and because we've become so obsessed with tech and elite colleges and we fetishize that we no longer have wood, metal, or auto shop in high school. I think a lot of young people, specifically a lot of young men, quite frankly, just aren't cut out for college. And that doesn't mean they shouldn't have on-ramps into the middle class. So there's just absolutely no doubt we need more opportunities for vocational programming. And also parents need to stop shaming themselves and their kids and forgive everybody if your kid is one of the two-thirds of American kids that does not end up with a traditional four-year degree. Having said that, and I don't think this is a good thing, and it's one of the unfair things about America, but if you have the opportunity to go to a good four-year liberal arts education and you can afford it, I just don't think I would take advantage of that experience. Because there is something about, I was installing shelving. I didn't get into UCLA and I was installing shelving. And I was making 18 bucks an hour, which was a lot of money in the early 80s. And I would have gone on to live an okay life, but I got in on appeal to UCLA because the admissions rate was 76% then. Now it's 9%, by the way. I had no idea what I wanted to do, but that four years of marination, that four years of broken heart, that four years of meeting great friends, that four years of history of America with Robert Dalek, that, you know, those biology classes, those philosophy classes, it was amazing marination and gestation for me. And if you have the opportunity to do that and you think you would enjoy it, I just would never discourage anyone from doing it. Having said that, not only some, but the majority of kids aren't cut out for it. And that's fine, but we need, we absolutely need more past. The problem with some of these technical schools is that their degree mills masquerading as technical schools. So I think the answer, and I'm involved in this and I'm voting with my wallet, is to take our great public school infrastructure and stop this snobbery held by the faculty and the administrators of UCLA and Berkeley should have two-year programs in specialty nursing. That's fine. That's okay. Some kids can't afford to afford. They should have one-year programs in specialty construction for nuclear power plants. They should have 18-month programs in cybersecurity and also maintenance. Pickleball court. Pickleball court. Whatever it might be, maintenance for HVAC, energy efficient HVAC, the jobs are out there. So it's a nuanced answer. If you have the opportunity and you're inclined, you're a good, much less a great student, and you think I would just... The American College land grant four-year experience is a singular experience. It is wonderful. It's not for everybody. And for those people, we have to provide them with more opportunities. So prediction, you think the government will put more into this or companies will?
--:-- Kara Swisher: The bloom is off the rose of these elite institutions and the self-aggrandizement and arrogance known as university leadership. And the transfer of wealth that we have affected by treating our universities as luxury brands, not as public servants. The bloom is off the rose. And both our leadership, our funders, I mean, I'm just seeing a lot of people. I'm one of them. I used to give money to universities to fund scholarships for the last one I did was scholarship. I'm doing a lot of virtue signaling right now. But the last piece of money I gave was scholarship for the children of immigrants. Now I'm like, no, we need to change this model. We need to start helping young men and young women. They're just not going to get a four-year degree. That's called two-thirds of American kids. So what, are they just fucked? Does everyone just live in shame? And we know this. You know parents who their kid goes to school for a year. They want to impress mom and dad. And guess what? They're just not cut out for it. And the immediately inclination of all your friends and neighbors and the parents is, oh, the kid must be mentally ill. He's struggling. She's struggling. No, they're just not cut out for college. That's OK.
--:-- Scott Galloway: Yeah, I would agree. I think parents have to change their attitudes. You know, when Louis was talking about going to the military or doing something else that was, I was like, I encouraged him. Like, if he didn't want to do college, he shouldn't. And it was not, I just, you know, I think it's actually the experience. You're absolutely right. He's getting an amazing experience and learning as himself as a man, and we'll see. But in Alice's case, he should be because he's going into things that he needs these kind of advanced degrees. So it'll be interesting to see what the next set of kids, how they look at life.
--:-- Kara Swisher: Anyway, we think it is going to be a bit bigger than ever and have more respect than ever, and it's already shifted. And I wish the only thing I would wish in the future is that we respect vocational training and we don't have to necessarily constantly trash colleges. I think colleges have had a wake-up call, as Scott says.
--:-- Scott Galloway: So just a quick story. I went to go, you know, I'm at that age where I'm getting my blood looked at by AI and everything to, you know, figure out when the ass cancer is finally going to get here. And this woman, this woman who took my blood, I started talking to her, just this lovely young woman, didn't get a college degree, got a degree in nursing specifically around IVs. And she's known as the IV whisperer. And she works for a hospital and she's on three 12-hour shifts where when they can't find the vein, you know, that's happened to all of us, right? They can't find your goddamn vein. They call her. She can find any vein on any individual. That is literally how specialized she is. And I said to her, I said, I am fascinated by this. Can I ask you some questions? She said, sir, she works three 12-hour shifts a week, right? Didn't get a college degree, likes to work, lovely EQ and has this very minute skill. She makes $180,000 a year. And those jobs are everywhere. Renovate a house and find the person laying down your tile and ask them how much money they make. They make really good livings. And for all the young people out there who aren't cut out for college and are worried about student debt, what I can tell you, my brothers and sisters, is the mainstream economy especially in America has a job for you if you hardworking and you a good person and you willing to find something and put some effort toward it. And we just need to the landing lights are on for a great student who understands technology. We need to illuminate some more landing fields or more runways for non-traditional vocational jobs. It seems this is the trend that's headed that way.
--:-- **Transition to DEI:**
--:-- Kara Swisher: Anyway, finally, the most controversial thing probably is DEI, diversity, equity, inclusion. The best time for DEI jobs was early 2023. There's been an attrition in the industry since, shrinking about 8% so far this year. That's data from Reveglio Labs. But also notes the attrition rate for DEI roles has been double that of non-DEI roles. Zoom and Snap have recently made deep cuts to their DEI departments. Everyone across the industry tells me this is something that's not new, especially in tech, which was very aggressive. Meanwhile, some business leaders really see the value in DEI, including Mark Cuban, who did a lot of really terrific tweeting about it a few weeks ago. So let's talk about where it's going. I can start if you'd like, Scott, or you want to go first?
--:-- Scott Galloway: Yep, you go ahead. This is no question this is getting cut. There's just no way, and it's going to get cut even more in the future. Here's the thing. I would go the Cuban way, which is let's find the value in it. I think we'll probably have to change the name, although I can't understand. Think about it. Diversity, equity, inclusion. So it should be a positive, but it's been badly slapped around by the right and it's worked. So we've got to sort of re-look at and incorporate it more. And I thought Mark did a great job of talking about his talent, the reason he does. And he said, DEA does not mean you don't hire on merit. Of course, you hire based on merit. Diversity means you expand the possible pool of candidates as widely as you can. Once you've identified the candidates, you hire the person you believe is best. I think that was correct. People, of course, attacking for it, but better talent pool, better talent pool. It has to be, there's no question. You don't have to do check boxes and quotas. That's where people get funny about it. And Mark did talk about it and he's right. If you understand the value of DEI, it's not checklist and quotas, it's understanding how to best compete as a company, whatever works for your company. And these efforts, you can call them anything you want. It's got to go beyond that because that does antagonize people. But it clearly is, you know, it creates a much stronger workplace. It gives you a competitive advantage. And I think smart companies are going to not listen to a lot of the noise around this. And it creates competitive advantages for companies if they do it in the right way. And I think stories like how he did it or other people, I think in the future, still younger generations want people to prioritize DEI. And I don't care what you call it. Young people want a more diverse workplace. They just do. You can talk to anybody. So I think it's going to continue. It's just going to be called something else because it's gotten so tarnished. And I would urge you to read what Mark said about it. I think he's been at the forefront of this and is smart about how you can do it smartly.
--:-- Kara Swisher: There still will always be pushback, and this is a right thing. But I think people are getting tired. The right has overplayed its hand here, especially someone like Bill Ackman, who knows nothing about what he's talking about. I'd rather listen to people like Mark Cuban, who have applied it in his workplace.
--:-- Scott Galloway: So I think you need to bifurcate it. But the general notion that stakeholders, society, you know, the community, shareholders benefit from a workforce, it doesn't have to be perfectly calibrated to society, but should at least somewhat reflected and not be obviously excluding people of certain communities. In the 1990s, I never even realized, I was raising a ton of money for startups. Everyone else who was raising money was the same person. We were all straight white males with college degrees. And we never even stopped to ask, and we should have, well, why aren't women raising money for startups? Why have I not met a black CEO at Sequoia's Investor Day? We'd never even bother to ask the questions.
--:-- Kara Swisher: These are important questions to ask. There are now laws that where you can get severely punished if you're a company and it's pretty clear that you're advancing certain groups and not others and you're not hiring from certain groups. And if you have a customer base that is, you know, 60% African-American and there isn't an African-American on your board, then something's wrong. All of that makes sense. I believe DEI as a title for an executive is going away. One, because typically where you find DER departments are in the most already diverse and inclusive places on the planet. And two, it's developed a bad brand. And I would argue it's like having a chief ethics officer. I think this is just common sense. I think this is things that the head of HR and the CEO should take on. I don't think you need a department for this. And I think it's in some instances, it's gotten to the point where it is unwittingly actually become somewhat biased itself. I don't think it's working. I think it played a role, but I think this is common sense. I think this is basic decency. I think there are laws for this. I think it's good for shareholder value.
--:-- Scott Galloway: My prediction, and I'm not, you know, is the DEI as a moniker for an executive is going away. Okay, it's going away. And what will replace it? The CEO is ultimately responsible for shareholder value and is responsible for growing shareholder value. And I think a diverse workforce with different viewpoints adds to shareholder value. I think that's just common sense. And I also think the HR person and your chief legal counsel is well within their rights and smart to stand up and say, okay, you realize that of our workforce that is diverse below VP, and then once it gets to VP becomes less diverse, we are subjecting ourselves correctly and justifiably to massive lawsuits. So even if you have biases internally, guys, you got to check back on these because it's about to hurt us because there are going to be justifiable lawsuits against us because it appears that while we have a very diverse workforce for people making less than a hundred grand, when we decide to give out keys to the executive washroom, it seems to be all people with outdoor plumbing and pale skin. And that was happening across America. And then plaintiff's attorneys came in and said, this person had the same job references, the same performance, but never seemed to get above a certain level than the dude. So I think this is going to become part and should be just part of what it means to be a good manager and a good executive.
--:-- Kara Swisher: Oh, perfect. All right. So what's it going to be called? Being the CEO of the chief legal counsel or being the head of HR?
--:-- Scott Galloway: Yeah, I think it's got to be more integrated. Again, people should have the experience, should understand that you don't, it's become one of these things like woke or virtue signaling. There's been a whole bunch of words that get abused, which are for good things in general, but have to change the meaning of. Very valuable. And again, another thing, whether you think, you know, I got rid of DEI. Young people don't like this. They just don't. They most do in your workforce, and you need to inspire them in some fashion.
--:-- **Closing and Ad:**
--:-- Kara Swisher: Okay, Scott, that's it for the first episode of our three-part series on the future of work. We'll be back with some deeper dives on AI and remote work coming out soon. Read us out.
--:-- Announcer: Today's show was produced by Lara Naiman, Zoe Marcus, and Taylor Griffin. Ernie Intertatt engineered this episode. Thanks also to Drew Burrows and Mille Severio. Nishat Kurwa is Vox Media's executive producer of audio. Make sure you subscribe to the show wherever you listen to podcasts. Thanks for listening to Pivot from New York Magazine and Vox Media. You can subscribe to the magazine at nymag.com/pivot. We'll be back next week for another breakdown of all things tech and business.
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--:-- Kara Swisher: Thank you.
