--:-- Ryan Knutson: Welcome to Red, White, and Who? Our show about the road to the White House. I'm Ryan Knutson.
--:-- Molly Ball: And I'm Molly Ball.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: It's Friday, September 20th.
--:-- Molly Ball: So, Ryan, I had a bit of FOMO recently because you and our senior producer Rachel Humphries got to go on a road trip without me.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: We snuck out, yeah. And you know, I learned on that road trip that Molly Bull loves Ohio.
--:-- Molly Ball: I do really love Ohio. My first job in journalism actually was in Ohio. I worked for the Toledo Blade in the northwestern corner of the state.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: But this time we went to the northeastern corner of the state. We flew into Cleveland. Welcome to Cleveland Hopkins International Airport. The local time is 8:23.
--:-- Molly Ball: We did a lot of driving around eastern Ohio, the Mahoning Valley, Steubenville, even crossed the river into West Virginia. So this is actually the Ohio River.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Ah, aha. And it is so beautiful this time of year, the rolling green hills and the soaring bridges. And I just, I never feel more American than like driving around the heartland in late summer, early fall when it is just gorgeous.
--:-- Molly Ball: Why did you go to Ohio? Ohio, as we've talked about, is not a swing state, does not seem to be in play for the presidential race. So what's interesting about it?
--:-- Ryan Knutson: That's right. Ohio is not a swing state, but it has probably the most important Senate race in the country this fall, the race that is one of two that are likely to determine control of the United States Senate.
--:-- Molly Ball: Currently, Democrats have a 51 to 49 advantage in the 100-member United States Senate.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: And who controls the Senate is going to have a lot of influence on whoever the next president is, whether they have any chance of advancing their agenda.
--:-- Molly Ball: Who controls the Senate is going to determine whether a President Trump or a President Harris can actually get any of their policy agenda through Congress.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: All right, well, there's a lot to get into with this trip, so let's get to it. From the Journal, this is Red, White, and Who? Our show about the road to the White House.
--:-- Molly Ball: I'm Ryan Knutson. And I'm Molly Ball.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: So, what's the lay of the land in the Senate races in this campaign cycle?
--:-- Molly Ball: Well, senators serve six-year terms, so every two years about a third of the Senate is up for election. This year, that's 34 seats.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: The vast majority of those seats are either safe seats that nobody's really contesting, or they are held by Democrats.
--:-- Molly Ball: So Democrats have a lot of territory to defend. They've got to hold on to these seats in red states, Ohio and Montana.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: And then there's a bunch of seats in swing states. And so I think most analysts think that Republicans are overwhelmingly likely to take over the Senate again, no matter who wins the presidential election in November.
--:-- Molly Ball: So you said earlier that Ohio has one of the most important Senate races in the country this year. So let's talk about Ohio.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: First of all, it used to be a swing state, but it no longer is. How did that happen?
--:-- Molly Ball: You know I'm obsessed with this idea of a political realignment.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Well, the reason Ohio used to be a swing state and isn't anymore is because of the way Donald Trump changed the political landscape, changed the political parties and what they stand for.
--:-- Molly Ball: So, you know, Obama won the state twice. It was a top swing state. And someone like Mitt Romney was very easy to paint as sort of an out-of-touch rich guy who couldn't relate to the struggles of regular working class people in the heartland.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Trump came along and started talking about bad trade deals in China.
--:-- Molly Ball: So when you and Rachel were out on this road trip in Ohio, in what ways did you see that shift in Ohio politics sort of manifest? Like, what were people telling you?
--:-- Ryan Knutson: You know, we talk a lot in politics about polarization and how few swing voters there are. But what's amazing when you travel across particularly this part of Ohio is how many people have changed their political orientation.
--:-- Molly Ball: Democrats who've become Republicans and Republicans who've become Democrats.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: And so we went, of course, to the county fair.
--:-- Molly Ball: Mm, love the county fair. The Banshee's pretty popular, actually.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: It was everything you can imagine. It was, you know, carnival rides and livestock and vintage tractor display and lots of fried dough and grilled meat.
--:-- Molly Ball: Did you go on the ride that spins in circles, the scrambler, whatever it's called?
--:-- Ryan Knutson: We observed the scrambler. It's a ride. Interviewing voters, Ryan. We didn't need to. Okay.
--:-- Molly Ball: So who did you talk to at the fair?
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Well, we went to see the Mahoning County Republican Party in their tent, which was full of Trump merch and doing a brisk business.
--:-- Molly Ball: And one of the people we met there was a guy named Gino DeFabio, lifelong Democrat who decided to get in politics when Trump came along as a Republican and now is running to be a county commissioner.
--:-- Gino DeFabio: When Trump ran, I said, you know, the heck with it. I was a registered Democrat. I said, this is finally this guy in the business I work in. I drive a truck for a machine shop. We go to steel mills, coal plants and everything.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: And everyone of those guys always complained. He said, nobody helps us. Nobody helps us.
--:-- Gino DeFabio: Well, Trump will say, here's what we need to do to fix it. And his message really resonated with me.
--:-- Molly Ball: Honestly, what stood out about Gino was how many other people I've met who sounded exactly like him.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: And for so many of these voters, when Trump came along, the things he started talking about, a switch flipped.
--:-- Molly Ball: And there was a message that resonated. There was someone who seemed as mad as they were about what had happened to their communities, someone who seemed as mad as they were about trade and about China and about immigration and all the forces outside their control that they feel have changed and devastated their way of life.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: And I just wanted to add for a second, Molly, Gino isn't just voting for Trump. He also talked about how he was fairly apathetic about politics.
--:-- Molly Ball: And now he's running for a second time to be Mahoning County Commissioner. That's how inspired he says he is by Trump.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: That's right, because he felt like what Trump was saying was we've got to drain the swamp.
--:-- Molly Ball: And he saw that locally. He said, hey, maybe it's time for new blood, like Trump says.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: All right, so let's talk about the Senate race that's so hotly contested that's happening in Ohio.
--:-- Molly Ball: The state's two senators are J.D. Vance, Donald Trump's vice presidential candidate, and then the Democrat Sherrod Brown, who's been in this seat for a long time.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Brown is the senator who's fighting this tough re-election campaign.
--:-- Molly Ball: What's his backstory?
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Sherrod Brown is a career politician. He's been in office since 1993, and he has been in the Senate since 2007, so he's running for a fourth term.
--:-- Molly Ball: He is, you know, a reliable Democratic vote in the Senate. But he's always been a different kind of Democrat. He's always been, he's described himself as a populist progressive.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: So in a lot of ways, he sounds like a Bernie Sanders.
--:-- Molly Ball: He even looks a little bit like Bernie Sanders. He's got the sort of rumpled demeanor and the frizzy hair.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: And when I interviewed Sherrod Brown, he said, I'm going to get a majority of the vote no matter what happens in the presidential race, because I keep my focus on the workers, because I take on the big corporations and I fight for the little guy.
--:-- Molly Ball: You and your opponent in this race have both been described as populists. Who do you think is the real populist in this race?
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Politics is not so much left or right. It's really whose side are you on.
--:-- Molly Ball: And you call yourself a lot of things. But my focus has always been the dignity of work.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: It's working for people, whether you punch a clock or swipe a badge or work for tips or work in an office or serve at McDonald's.
--:-- Molly Ball: So what's his strategy in this campaign to try and hold on to his seat?
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Well, it's a couple of things. It's, number one, reminding people that they know him and distancing himself from the National Democratic Party.
--:-- Molly Ball: He didn't attend the Democratic convention last month. In his ads, he's running a lot of ads talking about the Republicans who support him and not really putting the party label on himself.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: So that's part of it.
--:-- Molly Ball: Clearly, I've endorsed Harris. I want her to win. I'm excited that she's talking about the dignity of work and means it like I do.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: So I think that I need a majority vote. I'm going to get a majority of votes no matter what happens in the presidential because I take on those interest groups and because I keep my focus on workers.
--:-- Molly Ball: What he's going to need to win is for people to split their tickets.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: He needs people who vote for Donald Trump in the presidential to also vote for a Democrat down the ballot in the Senate race.
--:-- Molly Ball: Because if Trump wins the state by eight or ten points, the only way Sherrod Brown also wins his Senate election is if people are voting for both Trump and Sherrod Brown.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: So he's got to appeal to a lot of Trump voters.
--:-- Molly Ball: And the interesting thing for me and Rachel going to some of Sherrod Brown's events in eastern Ohio is we actually met a lot of those voters at Sherrod Brown's events who said that they like Trump but they also like Sherrod Brown.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: People like Doug Zamborski who we met at a decommissioned tin mill across the river from Steubenville, Ohio.
--:-- Doug Zamborski: I'm a Republican. I'm not a Trump radical. I like his ideals. I like how he has a backbone. He stands up to China. He stands up to Korea.
--:-- Molly Ball: I think that's important for the infrastructure of our country.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: What do you think of Senator Sherrod Brown?
--:-- Doug Zamborski: Brown has been industrial driven since he started. He's helped us, even in Ohio, keep the jobs there. He's backed us since the beginning.
--:-- Molly Ball: So Brown got my vote in Ohio for sure.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: So it sounds like the loyalty to Brown among these supporters is like his history and it sort of personal rather than sort of like a Democrat Republican you know big picture kind of thing.
--:-- Molly Ball: That is certainly what Sherrod Brown would like you to think. That is what he's counting on.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: So let's talk about the Republican who's challenging Brown for his seat, Bernie Moreno.
--:-- Molly Ball: What's his story?
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Bernie Marino is a Colombian immigrant who started a chain of car dealerships in Ohio.
--:-- Molly Ball: You know, his family sort of came here with very little, and he worked his fingers to the bone and became very successful.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: So when I spoke with Bernie Marino at an event that he held outside Cleveland a few days after we saw Sherrod Brown, he said, you know, Sherrod Brown claims to be a populist, but he's really a faux populist because look at what's happened on his watch.
--:-- Bernie Marino: You can't be a populist, which means that you care for the working man, for the working class, building our middle class, if you are for unlimited illegal immigration, because that hurts the actual people you're trying to help.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: It lowers wages. It massively increased costs. Look at health care costs. When you're taking care of 10 million illegals, 20 million illegals, it's going to drive up the cost of health care.
--:-- Molly Ball: So you can't be a populist and believe that.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Also, how can you be a populist and want to forgive student debt?
--:-- Bernie Marino: Think about that. Two-thirds of Ohio never went to college. Two-thirds. But he wants the one-third that went to have a portion of those who haven't paid off their student loans to get the debt forgiven. That makes no sense.
--:-- Molly Ball: Did you get a sense that Marino's message is resonating with voters in Ohio?
--:-- Ryan Knutson: I mean, if you look at the polls, Sherrod Brown is narrowly ahead. But it's very close.
--:-- Molly Ball: And what Marino is doing is the opposite of what Sherrod Brown is doing strategically.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: He wants everyone to know he's a Republican because he wants people who vote for Trump to vote for Republicans all the way down the ballot.
--:-- Molly Ball: He's driving around the state in a big red bus that says in giant letters, it's got his face on the side of it, and it says Trump endorsed.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: So if you're an Ohio voter and you know one thing about Bernie Marino, he wants that one thing to be that he's a Republican who supports Trump.
--:-- Molly Ball: Interesting. So after your trip to Ohio, what's your sense of what's going to happen in this race? Who do you think has an edge, Brown or Marino?
--:-- Ryan Knutson: You know I never say who's going to win because I don't make predictions. No, I really don't know.
--:-- Molly Ball: This is why I come to you. I really don't know who's going to win this race, and I think it's going to tell us a lot about the political future of the heartland in this country, of whether or not Sherrod Brown is able to hang on.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: And so even though Ohio is not a swing state, in a lot of ways, it's still true that as goes Ohio, so goes the nation.
--:-- Molly Ball: So you mentioned earlier that there is another key Senate race for Democrats in a red state, and that is the state of Montana, which is what we are going to talk about after the break.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Okay, let's go.
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--:-- Ryan Knutson: Okay, so let's talk about Montana, a state with another competitive Senate race.
--:-- Molly Ball: Can you give us a lay of the land of what's happening there?
--:-- Ryan Knutson: This is another red state with a Democratic senator who is fighting to survive against the political tide.
--:-- Molly Ball: John Tester has been in office for many years.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: And this is an even a much redder state than Ohio. Montana has been a red state, hasn't been a swing state for as long as I can remember, and went for Trump by 16 points in 2020.
--:-- Molly Ball: Wow. Huge.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: So it's even more of an uphill battle for John Tester.
--:-- Molly Ball: He's a farmer who lost three fingers in an agricultural accident.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: He's got a buzz cut. He's kind of a big guy.
--:-- Molly Ball: Another politician who's got a distinctive profile, who doesn't sort of code as a conventional Democrat.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: But it's looking less and less likely that he can survive the way that his state has gone in recent decades, in part just because he's been in Washington for so long.
--:-- Molly Ball: And I think the longer you've been in office, the harder that incumbent rap is to overcome, even though it used to be an advantage to be an incumbent.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: These days, maybe not so much anymore, particularly when you're sort of swimming against the tide.
--:-- Molly Ball: Well, I was going to say, I mean, how is it that Tester's been able to hold on for so long? Like, why this year does it seem like he has lower odds?
--:-- Ryan Knutson: It's the fact that it's a presidential year, which means that turnout is going to be higher and there's going to be a lot of Trump voters who have to split their tickets.
--:-- Molly Ball: The last time Tester ran, it was a midterm year. Nobody was coming to the polls to vote for Trump because Trump wasn't on the ballot.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: He had weak opponents in the past. He has an opponent who is pretty strong this year, Tim Sheehy, who's a local businessman and military veteran.
--:-- Molly Ball: And in the last couple months of polling, Tester has been falling further and further behind.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: We actually have a question from a listener about Montana.
--:-- Molly Ball: This is from Jin Chu in Brooklyn. Hi, Molly. I have a question about the very close Senate race in Montana. Abortion is on the ballot there this November. Will it help Democrat John Tester keep his Senate seat?
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Well, thank you, Jin, for your question. I don't know is the answer.
--:-- Molly Ball: But it's a really interesting factor that you point to because Montana is one of several either swing states or states with important Senate races that also have abortion on the ballot.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Something that's interesting is we've actually already had a statewide ballot initiative in Montana on abortion. In 2022, there was a ballot initiative that would have made late-term abortions illegal, and voters rejected it.
--:-- Molly Ball: Voters took the abortion rights side of that initiative.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: So this time, it's a constitutional amendment that would enshrine a right to abortion up to the point of viability in the Montana Constitution.
--:-- Molly Ball: And what Democrats and abortion rights activists are hoping, is that the kind of voters who are likely to come to the polls on this issue, maybe they don't care enough about the presidential election, or they don't think their vote matters, or they don't care about the Senate race, but they do really care about abortion rights.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: And once those voters are in that voting booth, and they look at the rest of their options, and they're more inclined to vote for Democrats.
--:-- Molly Ball: But this is an X factor. We haven't had a presidential election where this was an issue before.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: And so I think we really don't know.
--:-- Molly Ball: One of the other big stories this week that I wanted to ask you about is the second attempted assassination of President Trump while he was playing golf on Sunday.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Do you think that this will affect the campaign in any way?
--:-- Molly Ball: The first thing to say about this, of course, is that it's horrible and we're all so glad that the Secret Service caught this guy and that President Trump was unharmed.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: But I think it's harrowing and it reminds people. I think so much of the country is so on edge about this election.
--:-- Molly Ball: It feels dangerous to a lot of people because of all the heightened rhetoric and because there seems to be this sort of normalization of political violence.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: I don't think it's going to affect the campaign.
--:-- Molly Ball: And the reason I say that is after the first assassination attempt, there was this thought that there might be a sort of outpouring of sympathy that would unify people around him.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: And he said some things on social media about the need for unity, but he never actually said it in his own voice.
--:-- Molly Ball: And in fact, when he opened his mouth, he actively refuted that notion that he would try to be a more unifying figure, that he would in fact change it all, that he would be nicer as a result of this attempt on his life.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: So this idea that he could sort of capitalize on it by bringing people together is something that he just hasn't really been interested in doing.
--:-- Molly Ball: What you're saying, Ryan, reminds me actually of something we saw in Ohio when we went to the Republican tent at the fair.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: And I was looking at the Trump merchandise on sale and the image emblazoned on so much of it is the one taken after he was shot back in July, the one where he's pumping his fist in the air.
--:-- Molly Ball: And we spoke to the local Republican Party chairman there.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: And he told us that it was by far the best selling.
--:-- Molly Ball: And so while this might not be impacting the campaign, it does seem to be having an impact on his supporters.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: That's absolutely right. It is. The problem for Trump is his base didn't need to be any more galvanized. They're already very excited to vote for Trump.
--:-- Molly Ball: But it is certainly true. It's galvanized Trump's base.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: I guess what they would say is it symbolizes the threat he poses to the established order and how far his opponents are willing to go to try to stop him.
--:-- Molly Ball: All right. Well, until next week, Molly, thanks again as always.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Thanks, Ryan. Have a great weekend.
--:-- Molly Ball: You too.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Don't forget, if you have a question for Molly you want answered on a future episode, send us an email or voice message to thejournal at wsj.com.
--:-- Molly Ball: That's thejournal at wsj.com.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Red, White, and Who is part of The Journal, which is a co-production of Spotify and The Wall Street Journal.
--:-- Molly Ball: Our senior producer is Rachel Humphries.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Our producer is Pierce Singe.
--:-- Molly Ball: Our editor is Catherine Whalen.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: I'm Ryan Knutson.
--:-- Molly Ball: This episode was engineered by Peter Leonard.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Our theme music is by So Wiley and remixed by Peter Leonard.
--:-- Molly Ball: Additional music by Blue Dot Sessions.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Fact-checking by Najwa Jamal.
--:-- Molly Ball: Artwork by James Walton.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: Special thanks to Kate Leinbaugh, Sarah Platt, Ben Pershing, and the whole Journal team.
--:-- Molly Ball: Thanks for listening. We'll be back with another episode of Red, White & Who next Friday morning.
--:-- Ryan Knutson: See you then.
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--:-- Ryan Knutson: Well, I just got back from vacation and I think I left them in my hotel room.
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--:-- Ryan Knutson: I wear them like every day with that Lululemon hoodie you got me.
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