--:-- [Scene: A quiet newsroom in Washington D.C. on election day. The host, JESSICA MENDOZA, is speaking with the guest, BEN PERSHING, the politics editor of the Wall Street Journal.]
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Welcome to The Journal, our show about money, business, and power. I'm Jessica Mendoza.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Hi, I'm Ben Pershing, the politics editor here at the Wall Street Journal.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: It's election day, Tuesday, November 5th, 2024. Ben, thanks for joining us today.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Thanks for having me.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Before we dive in, I brought some snacks. [holds up a box of Cheez-Its and a granola bar]
--:-- Ben Pershing: Oh, boy. I love Cheez-Its.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Great. I'll put them right here on your desk. [places the snacks on Ben's desk]
--:-- Ben Pershing: Thanks. I haven't eaten too much yet.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Well, you're welcome. So, what's going through your mind right now?
--:-- Ben Pershing: There's this sort of hurry up and wait part now that we all sit around on, and we watch feeds come in from voters and long lines, and people saying anecdotal things about turnout, but we also always have to remember that almost none of it means anything. Like, you can't actually interpret what's going on in the morning and draw out some big conclusion about the night, usually, unless there's something really crazy.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: At this point, Ben, how many elections have you covered?
--:-- Ben Pershing: So my first one, I think, was 1998. So it's like every two years since then. So it's probably 13 if you include, like, midterms.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Is it still exciting for you?
--:-- Ben Pershing: It's fun. Well, since you are such a pro at this, I've been doing this for a long time, we're asking for your help to put together a kind of user's guide to election night. What listeners can expect, what they should be watching for as results come in. And you're game to do that?
--:-- Ben Pershing: Sure. Yeah, happy to.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: From the Washington, D.C. Bureau, welcome to The Journal. Ben, do you want to tell folks what's coming up?
--:-- Ben Pershing: Coming up on the show, a political veteran's guide to election night.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: We'll see you next time. Pro Savings Days are back at Lowe's. My Lowe's Pro Rewards members save even more with limited-time doorbuster deals.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: So, Ben, as we've established, you've covered many election nights. What makes this one different? What makes this one special?
--:-- Ben Pershing: Yes. It probably is the closest race we've ever covered. If you look at the polls, both nationally and in the states, I just don't think we've ever had a race this close in this many important places in the final days.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: How many states are in play?
--:-- Ben Pershing: We think seven. There's really seven states that are really close and could go either way. It's Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: I love that you did that without looking at your notes at all.
--:-- Ben Pershing: It did take me a minute. I said them too many times.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: One way to think about it is there the blue wall states they call them Pennsylvania Michigan Wisconsin And then there what kind of loosely called the Sun Belt And that's North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada.
--:-- Ben Pershing: There is a theory that if Harris is going to win, she's going to win those blue wall states, whereas Trump has a better shot in those other four.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: But as I said, we're talking about a point either way, everywhere.
--:-- Ben Pershing: And then another thing that sticks out to me about this election, right, it's super close, as you said, but in terms of the issues, there are a lot of issues at play.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Yeah, it's a good point. I mean, there have been past elections where, you know, famously in 1992, James Carville said it was the economy, stupid, and everybody remembers that, right?
--:-- Ben Pershing: And what is interesting about this election is there are so many. So yeah, it's the economy, it's inflation, but it's also immigration and border security. It's also abortion rights and women's health. It's also the wars in Israel and Ukraine.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: And you could kind of go on and on. And you could point to any one of those. And if you told me that one issue was the difference, I wouldn't be surprised.
--:-- Ben Pershing: So up to this point, we've been talking about the presidential race. But what about the House and the Senate? How close are we talking in those races?
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: If it's possible to be just as close. Really, the House is the one that's especially close because Republicans have a narrow majority.
--:-- Ben Pershing: They're defending a lot of seats. The smartest election analysts really aren't picking a side. They're saying they could see Republicans ending up with a five-seat majority.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: They could see Democrats ending up with a five-seat majority or even a 10-seat majority.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Kind of frustratingly for us, a lot of the seats that are really competitive are in California and New York, where it takes them a really long time to count.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: You know, and so if we're all waiting around and we want to know the answer, and here's California saying, it'll be days before we count all these ballots, I think there'll be some frustration.
--:-- Ben Pershing: So that's the House. The Senate is a little different. Republicans do have the edge in the Senate.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: And it's just because of the map. This year, Democrats happen to be in the position of defending a whole bunch of tough seats and Republicans aren't.
--:-- Ben Pershing: So all Republicans need to do to capture the majority is win a couple seats and they've got it.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Tonight, Ben and his team won't just be watching states like Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. They're also going to be keeping a close eye on a handful of specific counties.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Counties that could give us early clues about how certain groups might be voting.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: What we wanted to do was pick counties that represented particular demographics. Younger people, older people, large black populations, white working class populations.
--:-- Ben Pershing: The idea being if we look at these counties really closely, they might be a sign of how other counties with similar populations are going to vote.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: So in other words, and I tell this story a lot, back in 2016, early in the night, some of our colleagues were looking at the Florida numbers coming in, including counties that Trump was supposed to win.
--:-- Ben Pershing: And they're like, wow, he was supposed to win this county by 10 or 20 points. He's winning by 40. Like, what's going on here?
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Something's going on here.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Trump was winning in these Florida counties, which was no surprise. But he was winning by a much bigger margin than analysts had expected.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: These are the kinds of clues Ben and his team will be looking for tonight.
--:-- Ben Pershing: The margins everywhere matter.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: So we tried to pick counties that would report pretty early in the evening, but would give us clues about what's going to happen later in the night.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Ben says if you want to know how the night's going for Trump or Harris, you could keep an eye on Travis County, Texas, Hernando County, Florida, and Macomb County, Michigan.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Let's start with Travis County, Texas. Can you describe Travis County? What kind of place is it?
--:-- Ben Pershing: Sure. So this is where Austin is, University of Texas, which has more than 50,000 students.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Obviously, it's a blue-leaning place, but it's the kind of place we're going to look at to see what Democratic turnout looks like, Democratic energy.
--:-- Ben Pershing: It won't be surprising if Harris wins Travis County. But Ben says if she's winning it by a lot, it could be a sign of Democratic strength.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: It might be a clue that other blue places, other college towns, other young places, places where Dems should rack up votes, are going to do really well.
--:-- Ben Pershing: How much does Harris have to win Travis County by to say that she's having a good night?
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: So in 2020 Biden won this county by almost 50 percent.
--:-- Ben Pershing: So I mean that a lot right Dems have a big margin here. But in every place the thing to think about is, is Harris outperforming Biden?
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Whatever it is, if it's a 10 point for whatever, it's a good sign for Democrats.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Let's go to another Sunbelt state. What about Hernando County, Florida?
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Tell us what you're looking at there.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Sure. It's on the Gulf Coast of Florida. It's got a lot of senior communities there.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: So that's where more than a quarter of this population is older, over 65.
--:-- Ben Pershing: So needless to say, it's the kind of place that might be indicative of how older voters are going.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: This is a case where Trump did really well in previous cycles, winning by big double-digit margins.
--:-- Ben Pershing: But we have been looking at the older vote carefully to see if Trump can keep those people or whether some of them might be shifting over to Harris a little bit.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: And so, again, this is a place where Trump's going to win, no question, but can he win by as much as he won in 2020?
--:-- Ben Pershing: Let's look at one more county. This one is in Michigan, Macomb County.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Why Macomb?
--:-- Ben Pershing: So this is just north of Detroit, and it's a kind of suburban and exurban county that we spend a lot of time thinking about, right?
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: All over the country, suburbs and exurbs seem to be where it's at.
--:-- Ben Pershing: And this is one that has leaned toward Trump.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: For example, in 2016, he won by 12 points.
--:-- Ben Pershing: In 2020, he won by eight points.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: And if you think about the difference there, 2016, Trump won Michigan. Right. 2020, he lost Michigan.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Huh. I don't want to say that Macomb was the difference, but it certainly made a difference.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: And this is a state that could be decided by less than a point overall.
--:-- Ben Pershing: And this is a particularly key state for Harris to be in one of the blue wall states.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: I mean, obviously, all seven battleground states are in play, but to lose Michigan would be a big loss for the Harris campaign.
--:-- Ben Pershing: It definitely would. If she lost any of these three blue wall states, Michigan, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania, it just makes her job much harder.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: She really has to make it up elsewhere.
--:-- Ben Pershing: So their strategy is to win these three states.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Coming up, Ben attempts to answer the pressing election night question. When will I be able to go to bed?
--:-- Ben Pershing: That's next.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Why shop at Burlington? Maybe it's the deals that are new each time you drop by.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Maybe it's the brand names you'll be shocked Burlington has in store.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Or maybe it's the quality of the items, the amazing selection, and the newest trends.
--:-- Ben Pershing: If you like to save but also like to stay in style, Burlington is your answer.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: And the question you'll be asking yourself is, why go anywhere else?
--:-- Ben Pershing: Burlington. Deals. Brands. Wow.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Tuesday on NBC, Jimmy Fallon and Bozema St. John host the highly anticipated new competition show.
--:-- Ben Pershing: I hired 10 creatives from all walks of life. They will be battling it out to see who can impress the world's biggest brands.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: This is a huge opportunity. This is the battle for the next big idea.
--:-- Ben Pershing: This is not play play. We're spending millions of dollars.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: I'm so excited to embark on this adventure with all of you.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Make the best idea win!
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: On brand with Jimmy Fallon. Series premiere Tuesday on NBC.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Okay, now for the question that's on everyone's mind. How long will it take to have a winner?
--:-- Ben Pershing: I wish I could say we would know quickly. I'm not sure.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: It could take days again.
--:-- Ben Pershing: If people remember from 2020, they may have blocked it out of their minds.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: They may have blocked it out of their minds.
--:-- Ben Pershing: It wasn't until Saturday that the election was called for Joe Biden.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: And that was the day Pennsylvania was called.
--:-- Ben Pershing: And you remember, you know, that's four days after the election.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: What happened last time was that pretty much everything was called by Tuesday and Wednesday.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Right.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: And then we sat around waiting on Thursday and Friday.
--:-- Ben Pershing: And then it wasn't until Saturday again where we knew the winner.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Now, the twist here is that Trump declared victory days earlier, right?
--:-- Ben Pershing: And honestly, I think he will do that tonight.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Most likely, in either scenario, he'll say that he won or is going to win, even if the races haven't been called.
--:-- Ben Pershing: And we did learn a lot in 2020 about how to think about that, how to process it, how to cover it as a news organization.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: If Trump says he won, but these states haven't been called and they're still close, we and most of the news media will make clear that even though Trump's saying it, it doesn't mean it's true.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Where do you see potential holdups? In the count?
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Yes.
--:-- Ben Pershing: I think Pennsylvania is always a bet to hold up.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: There's a lot of fighting there about voting rules, counting rules, when to open ballots.
--:-- Ben Pershing: There's always lawsuits in Pennsylvania.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: So I think they say that they modified their procedures to speed things up a bit.
--:-- Ben Pershing: But again it took till Saturday last time.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: The other states that have a real history of voting problems and controversies are Arizona and Wisconsin.
--:-- Ben Pershing: And I think you see a lot of attention on both of those places as they count to.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Would you be down to do a little pop quiz?
--:-- Ben Pershing: You kind of answered this first one already, but just...
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Of course.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Okay. So when approximately was the 2020 race called?
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: It was the Saturday early afternoon, I believe.
--:-- Ben Pershing: 1126 a.m. ET.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: That was close.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Not bad.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Okay. 2016?
--:-- Ben Pershing: 2016.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: That was the morning after, Wednesday morning.
--:-- Ben Pershing: 2.30 a.m. Eastern.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Good memory. I was around.
--:-- Ben Pershing: 2012?
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: 2012, I think, was like 11 p.m. Tuesday.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Oh, my gosh.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Ding, ding, ding.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Was I right?
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Yeah, it's like 11.40 p.m. Tuesday.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Whole sections of my brain are devoted to this that should be devoted to other things.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: So I'm going to put you on the spot. What is your prediction for this year?
--:-- Ben Pershing: So I don't want to get pinned down too much on one particular time.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: There's a world where we actually know by Wednesday.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Last time, you know, 40-something states had been called by Wednesday.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: If that doesn't work, I could see it being Thursday.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Last time was Saturday.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Most experts I know don't think it'll take that long this time.
--:-- Ben Pershing: So let's all cross our fingers.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: So when you watch the results come in tonight, what will you, politics editor of The Wall Street Journal, actually be looking at?
--:-- Ben Pershing: So we do look at all the results as they come in.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: But even before that, we're luckily enough to subscribe to something called AP VoteCast.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Basically, AP has been polling thousands and thousands of people for days heading into this election.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: And then they supplement it with more interviews on election day.
--:-- Ben Pershing: And they really try to get a sense of how people are voting, who they're voting for.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: They also ask a whole bunch of questions about issues.
--:-- Ben Pershing: And we get all that data in the evening, usually before we actually start hearing calls.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: So even before calls, we can say, wow, like, look at the suburbs.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Look at how women turned out.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Look at how Latino men shifted to the Republicans.
--:-- Ben Pershing: You know, there's all these patterns we've been writing about for four years, and we're now going to find out what actually happened.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: It's like Christmas.
--:-- Ben Pershing: You've been, like, looking at these presents that have been wrapped for a while, and you're shaking the box and trying to see what's in them, and you finally get to open them.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Yeah, Christmas is all good and fun, though.
--:-- Ben Pershing: I can just say that election night is not always quite that good and fun.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Fair enough.
--:-- Ben Pershing: But it's still a good comparison.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: And then we're kind of in a holding pattern until the polls start to really close.
--:-- Ben Pershing: And 7 and 7.30 p.m. are really the times we're watching when important states start to close.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: And that's when people should start turning their TVs on if they want to keep track, basically.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Exactly.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: And, you know, Georgia closing at 7 and North Carolina closing at 7.30, they both had this big early vote that gets reported early.
--:-- Ben Pershing: So, in other words, we don't have to wait until the end of the night to see people who voted by mail or voted early.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: They should get dumped in pretty quick.
--:-- Ben Pershing: And so we'll actually have a big chunk of votes to look at.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: But what's challenging there and confusing sometimes is the early vote still tends to lean Democratic.
--:-- Ben Pershing: So it's possible big chunks of early votes come in in Georgia and you're like, oh, wow, Harris is ahead.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: But you have to wait for that Election Day vote to catch up, which is going to be more Republican.
--:-- Ben Pershing: So it feels like patience is key for anybody who's trying to keep track of this over this evening and the next few days.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Yeah, I would say patience and most importantly, not jumping to conclusions.
--:-- Ben Pershing: That's something to keep in mind for sure.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Well, Ben, I know it's going to be a long night for you, so I'm going to let you go and just say best of luck.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Thanks so much for having me. I appreciate it.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: That's all for today, Tuesday, November 5th. The Journal is a co-production of Spotify and The Wall Street Journal.
--:-- Ben Pershing: We'll be back in your feed tomorrow morning with a new episode of our election series, Red, White, and Who.
--:-- Jessica Mendoza: Our hosts Ryan Knudsen and Molly Ball will be debriefing election night.
--:-- Ben Pershing: Thanks for listening. See you tomorrow.
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--:-- Ben Pershing: Learn more at insightsoftware.com.ai.
