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Although the Democratic candidate Afton Bain will not go on to win, we can project that the MAGA Republican candidate Matt Van Epps will go on to win. he will only win by about eight points. So the Democratic candidate Afton Bain had a 14-point overperformance from 2024 when Donald Trump won that district by plus 22. We are seeing a trend like this take place across the country, and MAGA Republican consultants are freaking out. I want to remind everybody, please subscribe right now to this YouTube channel. We are leading all independent media. Donald Trump and state regime media known as Fox keep on attacking us. I want to try to hit 6 million subscribers by the end of this month. Let's just take a look at the results right here. You see that Matt Van Epps, 53.8 percent. Afton Bain, the Democratic candidate, 45.2 percent. Now, here's what Republican consultant Matt Whitlock is saying, and we're seeing many others mimic what he's saying, saying stuff similar. Here's what he says. This is one of the biggest flashing red light warning signs we've seen yet for Republicans. If every House district in the country shifted left by the same amount about 15 points we would be looking at a blue wave far worse than 2018 estimated 43 seats flipping He goes, that's based on a lot of assumptions in districts around the country that don't have uniform shifts, but he says this is a huge wake up call. This is a Republican consultant, a top one saying the following, with a uniform 15 point swing towards Democrats. So if every GOP margin in 2024 shrinks by 15 points, about 43 Republican seats would flip, producing a house of roughly 258 Democrats to 177 Republicans, a net Democratic gain of 43 seats right there. And then he goes on to give a little more of the analysis. Let's just take a look also if you go through some of the counties and what went down here in this Tennessee special election. As this one account explains, overall, Dems are outperforming Harris in general by about 11% in 2025 specials. Jacob Rubishkin explains that the Tennessee 7 turnout tonight will be close to 180,000. The turnout in 2022 in the district was about 183,912. We essentially saw midterm level turnout in a special election the Tuesday after Thanksgiving. Afton Bain ultimately got her number, Jacob writes, in Davidson County, which is Nashville, which in Tennessee, the Republican legislature has carved up in all types of directions in order to deprive Democrats of getting a seat. outrunning Harris 25 points after Harris lost the district by 22, but ultimately, Afton Bain fell short in other places. Here's how the New York Times is describing it, and I agree with this analysis. Even in defeat, Democrats remain bullish that the contest portended some of Mr. Trump's political weaknesses entering 2026. Roughly 100 Republican-held seats were less pro-Trump in 2024 than Tennessee's 7th Congressional District. So 100 seats basically are in play if you have this current data that holds in the 7th of Tennessee. If you extrapolate that out to 100 other districts, it could be even more than a Democrat net gain of 43. So 100 plus seats remain in play. Democrats need to flip only three seats to win back a House majority next year. This is how they were describing it on CNN with one of their hosts saying, you know, sometimes what's happening in politics is clear and in front of you. And he goes through the analysis that I just gave, which if you look at all of these elections so far, if you look at the governor's races, if you look at the special elections, if you look at the state legislative races that we've been covering all of this stuff, right? Democrat overperformance 10 to 15 points. And that's been growing as the Trump regime has been faltering. Here's how they describe it. Let's play this clip. Yeah. You know, sometimes in politics, what is happening is clear and in front of you. And that is what's been happening this whole year in special elections, in New Jersey and Virginia in November, in lots of other places across the country, lower down on the ballot, and now here in the special election. And that is that Democrats are significantly overperforming what Kamala Harris did last year versus Donald Trump in all of these places, all different kinds of places. They're doing it in some blue places where he made big grounds with voters of color, young men and the like. They're doing it in ruby red districts like tonight in Tennessee's seventh. And so however the White House wants to spin this, the reality is they are going to have to find a way to change the trajectory of the political climate, because right now they are caught in a cycle where Donald Trump's approval ratings are going down. The American public are very displeased what he's doing on issue number one, the economy, and they are heading into a midterm where history as a guide would say Democrats would be poised to have a good year as the party out of power. All of that together means that Trump and the Republicans are on defense and they got to find a way if they going to hold on to the House majority to get onto offense fast Yeah And then here another description right here as they go to the maps And you'll see Caitlin Collins here on CNN. Here's what they talk about. Let's play it. We are seeing something that at the moment suggests the Republican might hold on to win. Matt Van Epps has just taken the lead. I'll explain why in a minute. And if you look through the map, you could see a progression to where Matt Van Epps can hold on. I can also give you a scenario, though, where the Democrat Afton Bain wins. But the fact that we're talking about this race at nine o'clock at night in the East on this night, a special election, tells you everything you need to know. Republicans are going to be nervous even if they win this seat because Matt Van Epps is leading this race right now. But by less than a point, less than a point, Caitlin, let's say he stretches that out a little bit. Right. OK. But just a little more than a year ago and quaint little day in November 2024, Election Day, Mark Green, the former incumbent in this congressional district, won it by 22 points. The man who sits in the White House, Donald Trump, won it by 22 points. So to your point about Democratic overperformance, or you might call it Republican underperformance, as we watch what has happened this year in Virginia, in New Jersey, in Pennsylvania, in Mississippi, in Georgia and elsewhere, in special elections and big statewide elections, Democrats are coming out to vote. The Republican coalition is not performing. And here tonight in Tennessee, again, Republicans may well hold this seat. But tomorrow, imagine Mark Green won this by 22 points. Matt Van Epps might win it inside of single digits somewhere. If you are a Republican anywhere else in America who comes from a district Donald Trump carried by, say, 12, maybe even 15 points, you're thinking, yesterday I didn't think I was vulnerable next year. Maybe I better think about that again. So it changes the battlefield, the map for the midterm elections potentially. It could also, Caitlin, change a lot of conversations between Republicans and the Trump White House about those Obamacare subsidies, about what do we do next time a government shutdown prospect comes up, about how do we vote on things Trump wants to do that maybe the people in my district don't like. So the margin here tonight matters. Even if the Republicans hold on, if it's that narrow margin, then it's going to cause jitters in the Republican party. 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Why won't you answer the question, Mr. Issa? And here you have Maga Mike Johnson kind of walking briskly away from Manu Raju who is asking him some pretty basic questions If you have concerns about Trump pardoning a narco terrorist Juan Orlando Hernandez Here, let's play this clip right here for you. I don't know anything about that president. I don't know. I don't have an opinion or I haven't read it. Mr. Speaker, this morning, this morning. 45 years he was charged with a major crisis. The president has the ability to advocate on that to anyone he wants. It's not really my issue. This morning, the Energy and Commerce Committee held a hearing. Now, also today, you had both pop star Sabrina Carpenter and the Pope come out and condemn Donald Trump. Sabrina Carpenter's music was stolen by Donald Trump in connection with propaganda videos where Trump mocks and terrorizes migrants. And Trump used the Sabrina Carpenter music and said, from the official White House account, have you ever tried this one? Bye-bye. And Sabrina Carpenter says, this video is evil and disgusting. Do not ever involve me or my music to benefit your inhumane agenda right there. And that's the way I would describe it too. Just the behavior is evil and disgusting behavior right there. The Pope came out and condemned Donald Trump for one for his immigration raids and the treatment of immigrants, but the Pope's done that before. But also the Pope called out Trump for threatening to invade Venezuela. Donald Trump, you saw today, he was sleeping during a lot of the cabinet meeting that was held today. Just take a look. Here's a map of Tennessee. Here's Nashville. You can see how the Republicans in Tennessee gerrymandered Nashville to carve it up. You see the various districts diluting the vote in Nashville so that Republicans could win these various districts. Again, that should not be the way it is. And then I'll just show you, I think as people are watching what's going on in this Trump regime, they see people like Kristi Noem out there saying to Donald Trump, you've saved hundreds of millions of lives in America. And people are like, dude, what are you talking about? He hasn't saved hundreds of millions of lives. This stuff would make North Korean Kim Jong-un be like, maybe we need to get Kristi Noem over here. Here, play this clip. Deployed hundreds of miles of border already. You have cut the fentanyl flow over the southern border by over 56 percent. You've saved hundreds of millions of lives with the cocaine you've blown up in the Caribbean. And then Kristi Noem credits Donald Trump with stopping hurricanes from coming this year. Here play this clip. Worked hard doing security and they have been absolutely fantastic. Sir, you made it through hurricane season without a hurricane. And so FEMA, even you kept the hurricanes away. So we appreciate that. And FEMA is deploying resources and dollars 150% faster than ever before. So somebody does have something bad that happens to them. You are immediately there helping them and telling them they have the resources to get back up on their feet. There you have it, folks. Let me know what you think. Hit subscribe. Unfortunately, Afton Bain did not win this election, but the fact that she overperformed by plus 14, I think is something to, you know, at least, I think that's good news, you know, and, but, you know, unfortunately she didn't win, but I think that portends to where we're going to see in the midterms. Let me know what you think and subscribe. Let's get to 6 million subscribers. Love this video? Support independent media and unlock exclusive content, ad-free videos, and custom emojis by becoming a paid member of our YouTube channel today. You can also gift memberships to others. Let's keep growing together. Hey, Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile. 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