--:-- Noelle King: Welcome to Today Explained. I'm Noelle King.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Thanks for having me on the show.
--:-- Noelle King: Today, we're talking about Brazil's presidential election. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, one-time Brazilian president, one-time convict of corruption, claimed a win in Brazil's presidential race early this morning.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: That's right. And it's a historic election in many ways. It was the first time that a president has actually failed to win re-election. It's very hard not to win a re-election in Brazil.
--:-- Noelle King: So, let's start with Lula. He's a leftist, and his speech promising a new era of peace, love, and hope was standard lefty fare. But he also suggested the election was a win for democracy and a loss for authoritarianism. That part was aimed at the incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro, a strong man who is beloved by millions of people for his strong manniness.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Bolsonaro, in response, said nothing. He's been silent. At another time in history, we might think he's seething before a polite concession. But this is not another time in history. He has always said that he believes that there would have been widespread fraud in the election and that he would not accept the result.
--:-- Noelle King: That's coming up on Today Explained. Support for this show comes from ServiceNow. AI is only as powerful as the platform it's built into, don't you know? That's why it's no surprise that more than 85% of the Fortune 500 use the ServiceNow AI platform.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: While other platforms duct tape tools together, ServiceNow seamlessly unifies people, data, workflows, and AI, connecting every corner of your business. And with AI agents working together autonomously, anyone in any department can focus on the work that matters most.
--:-- Noelle King: I've never met an AI agent. Learn how ServiceNow puts AI to work for people at servicenow.com. Support for this show comes from strawberry.me. Be honest. Are you happy with your job? Or are you stuck in one you've outgrown? Or never wanted in the first place?
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Sure, you can probably list the reasons for staying, but are they actually just excuses for not leaving? Let a career coach from strawberry.me help you get unstuck. Discover the benefits of having a dedicated career coach in your corner. Go to strawberry.me slash unstuck to claim a special offer.
--:-- Noelle King: It's Today Explained. I'm Noelle King. Samantha Pearson covers Brazil for The Wall Street Journal, which means she has been glued to this election from her base in Sao Paulo.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: It was actually the closest presidential race in Brazilian history. It was a nail-biting few hours while we were waiting for the votes to be counted. But eventually the winner was Lourdes Silva, who was the former leftist president in Brazil.
--:-- Noelle King: He was president from 2003 to 2010. And then he won by a very narrow margin against the incumbent president, Jair Bolsonaro, on the right.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: So he will be back in the presidency again for a third time come January the 1st. So we have a Lula win and perhaps just as significantly a Bolsonaro defeat.
--:-- Noelle King: Big picture, what does this mean for Brazil?
--:-- Samantha Pearson: This was a historic election in many ways. It was the first time that a president has actually failed to win re-election. It's very hard not to win a re-election in Brazil. So I think it really shows how much anger there is against the current president.
--:-- Noelle King: And Bolsonaro has not actually spoken since the election result last night. And he has always, you know, for the last few months at least, said that he believes that there would have been widespread fraud in the election and that he would not accept the result.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: There was a lot of concern and there still is some concern about, you know, how is he going to respond to this defeat? And would he try and even stage, you know, a military uprising or something?
--:-- Noelle King: So tell me about Jair Bolsonaro. The man who lost.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Jair Bolsonaro, for most of his young career, he was in the army. He was an ex-army captain. The country was ruled by a military regime from 1964 to 1985. When the regime fell in 1985 and Brazil became a democracy, Bolsonaro entered politics as a staunch far-right conservative, eventually becoming a congressman for Rio de Janeiro.
--:-- Noelle King: He was on the fringes of Brazilian politics. He was always very much to the right, especially on social issues, less so on economic issues, but he was that crazy guy that no one speaks to.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Bolsonaro is a right-wing ex-military populist who, when in Congress, told a female colleague, I wouldn't rape you, you're not worth it, has said, I would prefer my son to die in an accident than to have him be gay, and loves making finger guns all the time.
--:-- Noelle King: And then comes with the economic crisis here in Brazil. Workers' Party president Dilma Rousseff was impeached in August on charges she mishandled government funds.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Her former vice president, Michel Demmer, took over pledging austerity. Critics say the poor suffer the brunt of the cuts. And people were desperate, desperate for something completely different.
--:-- Noelle King: They wanted someone who was against everything that they'd seen before. They had this opinion which is justified that all politicians in Brazil are corrupt. So they didn't want anyone from the system. They wanted an anti-establishment figure.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Bolsonaro's voters say they're tired of violent crime and corruption in politics, and they blame PT, the left-wing Workers' Party, who've been in power for over a decade.
--:-- Noelle King: Who was Bolsonaro's constituency? I mean, if it was such a close election, millions of people wanted this man to win. Who were they?
--:-- Samantha Pearson: So a lot of richer Brazilians, middle-class Brazilians like Bolsonaro, a lot of the poor support Lula, because Lula has done a lot more and did a lot when he was president in the past to help poor families by giving social welfare, but also putting a lot of poor kids into university, into college.
--:-- Noelle King: Also, the urban areas sometimes tend to vote more in favor of, like, the cultural elite, I would say, would vote for Lula, but then farmers would vote for Bolsonaro.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: So it comes kind of down to, like, social groups rather than necessarily geographical areas, I would think. One of the social groups is evangelical Christians, right?
--:-- Noelle King: Yeah, so that's a huge group in Brazil. It's still unclear exactly how many evangelical Christians there are in Brazil, because there hasn't been a census here since 2010.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: But people, researchers believe that it's probably about one in three Brazilians are now evangelical Christians. Now that's a radical change for a country that you know home to the biggest Catholic population still.
--:-- Noelle King: And it had you know huge changes It brought changes socially economically politically
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Evangelical Christians in Brazil, at least, they tend to be very socially conservative. So from that point of view, they've been big supporters of Bolsonaro.
--:-- Noelle King: Bolsonaro is actually a Catholic, but he keeps that pretty quiet. He's married to an evangelical Christian. And he's friendly with all of the powerful evangelical church leaders in Brazil, who throughout this campaign, even against electoral rules, they've been basically calling for votes within churches, you know, telling people that the only godly choice is Bolsonaro.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Bolsonaro lost. And if he lost, it has to mean that he messed something up while he was in office. What did he mess up?
--:-- Noelle King: Well, a few things. And it depends on who you speak to, which of those things matters more. But I would say that the COVID pandemic really is a big issue.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: And in fact, that's what we're seeing across Latin America. So incumbents are being kicked out of office, partly as a response to the COVID pandemic.
--:-- Noelle King: Now, Brazil did a pretty bad job of handling the pandemic here. You know, the death toll was so high. COVID-19 has nearly toppled the country's health care system.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: And hospitals are overwhelmed by patients and they are running out of supplies. Because Bolsonaro was accused of belittling the disease at the beginning.
--:-- Noelle King: At the very beginning, he said that, oh, COVID is just a little cold. And why are people staying at home and try to encourage people to go back to work?
--:-- Samantha Pearson: He was also criticized for not doing enough to bring vaccines quickly enough to Brazil. So a lot of people were angry about that.
--:-- Noelle King: They were also angry about the economic fallout of the pandemic. That wasn't even really Bolsonaro's fault. But that doesn't really matter, you know, because you blame the person that's in charge.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: And inflation has risen dramatically in Brazil, as it has in other countries. Unemployment peaked about 15 percent last year.
--:-- Noelle King: So and that's really affected a lot of poorer families in Brazil. About 33 million people now in Brazil just can't afford to eat.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: So the situation is critical and they blame Bolsonaro and they remember how good things were under Lula. They want to go back to that kind of the golden years of the past.
--:-- Noelle King: And tell me about Lula. He clearly capitalized on a situation where things were not going well for the incumbent. Who is he?
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Lula, he came from a very poor background. He was the seventh son of illiterate farm workers. Lula began training as a metal worker. At 14, he got his first job at a warehouse.
--:-- Noelle King: In 1980, Lula established the Workers' Party, or PT. When he came to power in 2003 for the first time, He was the first person from poverty that had ever become Brazil's president.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: And that was a radical change for Brazilians. He was extremely popular. Even if you don't like him very much, even if you're on the right, if you sit and listen to him for 10 minutes, I guarantee you that you'll laugh or that he will charm you in some way.
--:-- Noelle King: He's a great speaker. He's a great negotiator. He also got lucky, to be fair, during his two terms in office in the 2000s.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: 2000s, that was when there was a China commodity boom was happening. And that really benefited Brazil because China is the biggest buyer of Brazilian commodities. So there's a lot of cash flowing into Brazil at that point.
--:-- Noelle King: And then Lula channeled a lot of that cash into social welfare programs, infrastructure, which created jobs.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: So he really had a great time in office. Yes, it's still famous for its music and carnival. But today, Brazil is something much more, A nation of 200 million, it's now the world's sixth largest economy, an energy giant with a booming manufacturing sector and growing middle class.
--:-- Noelle King: He left with an approval rating of more than 80%. Barack Obama at the time even said he was the most popular politician on earth.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: So things were very, very good for Lula. Then came the car wash corruption scandal, which then eventually landed Lula in jail.
--:-- Noelle King: The car wash corruption scandal was the biggest corruption scandal in Brazil's history, in Latin America's history, and possibly in the world.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: It was an investigation into a scheme whereby businessmen would basically pay bribes to politicians in order to win contracts, primarily at Petrobras, which is Brazil's big oil company, but also at other state companies.
--:-- Noelle King: The probe, named after one of the businesses used to launder the kickbacks, shook Brazil to the core.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Now, this investigation rolled on for a few years, and it gradually kind of implicated more senior people, you know, senior business people and politicians. And then eventually Lula.
--:-- Noelle King: Lula was convicted in 2017 and 2019 of corruption and money laundering.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: His sentence was then confirmed by higher court, and then he was put in jail in April 2018. All right, so how did a guy who went to jail four and a half years ago end up running for president?
--:-- Noelle King: So Lula actually only spent 19 months in jail in the end. He was released in November 2019 for a series of very technical reasons that I would say that most Brazilians don't actually understand.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Luis Inacio Lula da Silva, or simply Lula, left prison on Fridays surrounded by hundreds of his supporters. You have no idea of the significance for me to be here with you. I, who my whole life talked with the Brazilian people, never thought that today I could be here talking with men and women who, during the past 580 days, were here saying, good morning, Lula, good afternoon, Lula.
--:-- Noelle King: Then the Supreme Court ruled again. They annulled his 2017 conviction and another conviction in 2019 for corruption and money laundering, saying that the cases had been tried in the wrong jurisdiction.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Those cases were never retried and the statute of limitations expired on both of them. So Lula will tell everyone that he's innocent. That's not strictly true. He was never found innocent because his cases were never retried.
--:-- Noelle King: So it's very, very complicated, very Brazilian. And that's basically the reason that he was released from jail in 2019 and then subsequently allowed to run for election this month.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: One of the candidates, Bolsonaro, had authoritarian tendencies. one of the candidates, Lula, had been to jail for corruption. I imagine that over the course of this campaign, these two men used these things against each other.
--:-- Noelle King: Can you tell me what the campaigning was like?
--:-- Samantha Pearson: It was a horrible a horrible campaign a very tense campaign It was this dramatic choice right between either voting for an ex or voting for people who thought it was going to be a dictator.
--:-- Noelle King: So it was just a horrible choice. In Brazil, voting is obligatory, which makes it even worse. So you can't just kind of like sit at home and try and ignore the whole thing.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: You've actually got to go out and vote or you pay a fine. And so it was a very much a race kind of based on identity, based on insults.
--:-- Noelle King: The debates were very ugly at points. We were even wondering if they were going to get into a physical fight.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: There was very little discussion of actual policy of the future of Brazil, which was a shame.
--:-- Noelle King: The campaign was also full of fake news, as we say, you know, misinformation, rumours.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: The most ridiculous rumour I heard yesterday, even yesterday, was that the Supreme Court judges had released Lula from jail because Lula knew they were all pedophiles.
--:-- Noelle King: And these are like intelligent people. This was a teacher who told me this last week. You know, these are intelligent people who are normally seem reasonable human beings.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: And then they start telling you about, you know, why they're going to vote. And it's just incredible. I kind of wonder how many people voted yesterday on reasons that weren't factually true, which is just disastrous for democracy.
--:-- Noelle King: Right. And a lot of this is down to, you know, rampant use of social media and difficulties really in controlling social media.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Because if you exaggerate and you keep removing content, then that also brings up issues of free speech. So it's a really, really complicated time to be a politician, to run a political campaign for sure.
--:-- Noelle King: Today Explained comes from Built Rewards. These days, it seems like everybody has a rewards program. You swipe your card and you get one cent on the hundred dollars.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: But with your rent, frequently, you just pay month after month. You never get anything from it other than that roof over your head.
--:-- Noelle King: Not anymore, says Built Rewards. Built Rewards says it lets you earn points on your rent by paying rent through Built.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: They say you can earn flexible points that can be redeemed toward hundreds of hotels and airlines, perhaps a future rent payment, your next Lyft ride, and so much more.
--:-- Noelle King: Your home isn't just where you sleep, it's your community, and Built wants you to go out and do things in the community.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: You can eat at your favorite local restaurants, then earn more points. You can get VIP treatment at certain fitness studios. You can enjoy exclusive experiences just for Built members every month.
--:-- Noelle King: When you're ready to travel, they say Built points can be converted to miles or hotel points all around the world.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: You can earn points on rent and around your neighborhood wherever you call home by joining built.com slash explained.
--:-- Noelle King: That's J-O-I-N-B-I-L-T dot com slash explained. Support for this show comes from Macy's. It's almost fall, and that means it's time to cycle your wardrobe to the cold setting.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Because while everyone loves a breezy summer outfit, let's be real, layering is even more fun. That's why Macy's Fall Fashion Guide has everything you need to piece together the perfect look for you.
--:-- Noelle King: It's your one-stop shop for fall's latest trends and must-haves, curated by their experts. Add a statement shoe to your collection, like the calf-hair loafers from Steve Madden.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Or tap into your romantic side with flowy dresses from Cece and sheer pieces from INC.
--:-- Noelle King: You can even throw in some textural layers for contrast, like a faux fur bomber jacket from Karl Lagerfeld Paris.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Whether your old favorite sweater or coat is on its last threads, or you're just craving a new vibe to switch things up, Macy's has got you covered this season.
--:-- Noelle King: Find the perfect layering pieces for you by exploring the Macy's Fall Fashion Style Guide. Shop in-store or online at macy's.com.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: It's Today Explained. We're back with Samantha Pearson, the Wall Street Journal's woman in Sao Paulo.
--:-- Noelle King: And Samantha, Jair Bolsonaro still has not spoken after his loss to Lula da Silva.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: And this has a lot of people very worried. Why is everyone freaking out?
--:-- Noelle King: So there is a lot of concern, concern because Bolsonaro has said nothing, literally nothing since the election last night.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: There were rumors that he went straight to bed after the result. And it's concerning because Bolsonaro is an authoritarian figure.
--:-- Noelle King: And he has in the past said many things that would lead you to believe that he would like to stage some kind of, you know, intervention, let's say, in Brazil as a democracy.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: He said in the past that he would like to close down Congress. And then more recently, he's been questioning the voting process, saying that he doesn't believe that it was a fair vote and that he's not going to accept the results.
--:-- Noelle King: And so we are and we have been waiting for this to happen. So for Bolsonaro to come out and say that the results are not fair and that there was fraud.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: And then the question would be, you know, is he going to get support for that message, mainly from the military, which is a big question mark, because the military, it's very hard to know exactly where they stand on this issue.
--:-- Noelle King: Obviously, the spokespeople for the military say, no, we support democracy and stuff.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: But it's very hard to know what really people inside the military believe and to what lengths they would go to support Bolsonaro.
--:-- Noelle King: And also his own supporters, right? I mean, it's been a politically violent, tense campaign.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: For the last few days, Rio de Janeiro Councillor Chico Alancar has been arriving for work in a bulletproof car.
--:-- Noelle King: The veteran left-winger, a candidate in the federal legislative elections has taken security measures because he's just received a death threat
--:-- Samantha Pearson: There's been a lot of attacks, politically motivated attacks which is something we haven't seen in Brazil really before
--:-- Noelle King: In July, in the middle of a birthday party a Workers' Party activist was killed by a pro-Bolsonaro policeman
--:-- Samantha Pearson: So there was concern that people would take to the streets maybe things would get violent but absolutely nothing has happened so far and that's, it's good but it's also a little bit terrifying
--:-- Noelle King: I mean, I've always kind of thought that these concerns were a little overblown.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: And in fact, a lot of the Bolsonaro supporters I've spoken to since the result, you know, they're kind of planning their move to Portugal or Miami at this point.
--:-- Noelle King: They're not reaching for their guns ready to join an uprising.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: But Bolsonaro hasn't said anything. Although some of his allies in fact his strongest allies you know conservative allies have put out statements saying they accept the result and that you know now we going to fight from the side of the opposition and stuff
--:-- Noelle King: So I kind of find it hard to believe that Bolsonaro would now come out and say long live the revolution or something
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Do you know what I mean? I find it hard to believe that's going to happen now because he really would seem to be on his own unless he is plotting something with the military.
--:-- Noelle King: But so far, so good, I think, that he hasn't said very much, but we'll see.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: One of the big ways that Brazil affects the rest of the world, and one of the big ways that the president of Brazil really matters, is that whoever is in that office controls to some degree the fate of the Amazon.
--:-- Noelle King: The Amazon force is one of the most biodiverse regions on Earth.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: We all understand it as crucial to the fight against climate change because it holds and is capable of holding so much carbon.
--:-- Noelle King: We've heard for years now about how under Bolsonaro, the Amazon is being cut down faster than ever.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: And that has worried a lot of people who want to breathe air.
--:-- Noelle King: Where does Lula come down on this?
--:-- Samantha Pearson: During this campaign, this battle has been painted as a fight between good and evil.
--:-- Noelle King: And, you know, Lula being the good and Bolsonaro being the evil on many issues, including the Amazon.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: And to an extent, that is true because, you know, deforestation has risen very sharply under the Bolsonaro administration.
--:-- Noelle King: An area nearly the size of Maryland was deforested while he was in office.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: He's cut funding for enforcement agencies and he's expressed support for ranchers and miners.
--:-- Noelle King: And that's just created a very dangerous and kind of damaging situation in the Amazon.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: This government's established a true partnership with environmental crime organizations. Prosecuting officials are being persecuted for enforcing the law and fighting crime, fighting deforestation.
--:-- Noelle King: And the Lula deforestation declined 70 percent.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: So, I mean, it's clear that Lula is a better outcome for the Amazon.
--:-- Noelle King: But he's not perfect. So, for example, one issue that people have been talking about is that Bolsonaro had been planning to pave this massive highway that kind of slices through the Amazon and that would have then, you know, brought more development to the region and more deforestation.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: But in fact, Lula has also promised to pave the same road.
--:-- Noelle King: But I think, you know, the consensus is that Lula would do that with more responsibility.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: He would take more care to, you know, put in protections that this wouldn't lead to, you know, massive deforestation along that strip of land.
--:-- Noelle King: One interesting point off the back of that is with Lula's election, six of Latin America's largest countries are now led by leftists.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Five years ago, many of those countries had right-wing governments.
--:-- Noelle King: The pink tide or the turn to the left is a political phenomenon in Latin America.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: It indicates the rise of left-wing governments focused on social democracy.
--:-- Noelle King: How do you think this region is changing? What should we be taking away from this?
--:-- Samantha Pearson: I would argue, I know as of January the 1st, when NULA takes office, all of the major countries in Latin America are going to be run by leftist governments.
--:-- Noelle King: And that's a huge change, as you say, from recent years.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: But I would say that this round of leftist governments is very different to the leftist pink tide that we saw in the 2000s, because I feel like that was more ideologically coherent in the sense that these leftist leaders had more in common about the way they were tackling social issues and economic issues.
--:-- Noelle King: But nowadays, if you actually take these leftist leaders, they have very different opinions.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: And so if you, you know, abortion or the economy of same-sex marriage and stuff, these are very, they actually have quite varied opinions.
--:-- Noelle King: I would say what's happening right now in Latin America is not necessarily a move to the left, but I would say that it's a move just to throw out the incumbents, partly because of the COVID pandemic.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: And because the region was generally to the right, it so happens that the people being a left and are now to the left.
--:-- Noelle King: But this is not a move necessarily to the left in Brazil because there is still a very strong right-wing movement in Brazil.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: A lot of the people who won elections in Congress this month were right-wing allies of Bolsonaro.
--:-- Noelle King: So I would say that Lula was more about throwing out the incumbent rather than a move back to the left.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Let me ask you lastly, Samantha, we've been through a refusal to accept the results of an election here in the U.S. It was a louder refusal, certainly.
--:-- Noelle King: Do you see any similarities here?
--:-- Samantha Pearson: I would say Bolsonaro may not say anything now, but, you know, when he has to hand over power in January, you know, what's going to happen then?
--:-- Noelle King: And maybe there will be some kind of uprising, as we saw in the US. Maybe there will be these violent protests by his supporters.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: So it's not over yet, I think. I mean, we'll have to see what Bolsonaro says when he does choose to speak.
--:-- Noelle King: But I would say that that January moment is going to be very, very tense.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: And I would say that this issue is kind of not over until he actually hands over the presidential sash to Lula.
--:-- Noelle King: Or flings it on the floor in front of him or whatever he's planning to do.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: But until there's been that transition of power, I don't think we can kind of breathe easy yet.
--:-- Noelle King: Today's show was produced by Miles Bryan and Amanda Llewellyn.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: It was edited by Matthew Collette and fact-checked by a team led by Laura Bullard.
--:-- Noelle King: It was engineered by Afim Shapiro. I'm Noelle King.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Thanks for having me on the show.
--:-- Noelle King: It's Today Explained. Thank you.
--:-- [Discussion continues with a commercial break]
--:-- Noelle King: Welcome back to Today Explained. I'm Noelle King.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Thanks for having me back on the show.
--:-- Noelle King: Today, we're talking about Brazil's presidential election. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, one-time Brazilian president, one-time convict of corruption, claimed a win in Brazil's presidential race early this morning.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: That's right. And it's a historic election in many ways. It was the first time that a president has actually failed to win re-election. It's very hard not to win a re-election in Brazil.
--:-- Noelle King: So, let's start with Lula. He's a leftist, and his speech promising a new era of peace, love, and hope was standard lefty fare. But he also suggested the election was a win for democracy and a loss for authoritarianism. That part was aimed at the incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro, a strong man who is beloved by millions of people for his strong manniness.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Bolsonaro, in response, said nothing. He's been silent. At another time in history, we might think he's seething before a polite concession. But this is not another time in history. He has always said that he believes that there would have been widespread fraud in the election and that he would not accept the result.
--:-- Noelle King: That's coming up on Today Explained. Support for this show comes from ServiceNow. AI is only as powerful as the platform it's built into, don't you know? That's why it's no surprise that more than 85% of the Fortune 500 use the ServiceNow AI platform.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: While other platforms duct tape tools together, ServiceNow seamlessly unifies people, data, workflows, and AI, connecting every corner of your business. And with AI agents working together autonomously, anyone in any department can focus on the work that matters most.
--:-- Noelle King: I've never met an AI agent. Learn how ServiceNow puts AI to work for people at servicenow.com. Support for this show comes from strawberry.me. Be honest. Are you happy with your job? Or are you stuck in one you've outgrown? Or never wanted in the first place?
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Sure, you can probably list the reasons for staying, but are they actually just excuses for not leaving? Let a career coach from strawberry.me help you get unstuck. Discover the benefits of having a dedicated career coach in your corner. Go to strawberry.me slash unstuck to claim a special offer.
--:-- Noelle King: It's Today Explained. I'm Noelle King. Samantha Pearson covers Brazil for The Wall Street Journal, which means she has been glued to this election from her base in Sao Paulo.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: It was actually the closest presidential race in Brazilian history. It was a nail-biting few hours while we were waiting for the votes to be counted. But eventually the winner was Lourdes Silva, who was the former leftist president in Brazil.
--:-- Noelle King: He was president from 2003 to 2010. And then he won by a very narrow margin against the incumbent president, Jair Bolsonaro, on the right.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: So he will be back in the presidency again for a third time come January the 1st. So we have a Lula win and perhaps just as significantly a Bolsonaro defeat.
--:-- Noelle King: Big picture, what does this mean for Brazil?
--:-- Samantha Pearson: This was a historic election in many ways. It was the first time that a president has actually failed to win re-election. It's very hard not to win a re-election in Brazil. So I think it really shows how much anger there is against the current president.
--:-- Noelle King: And Bolsonaro has not actually spoken since the election result last night. And he has always, you know, for the last few months at least, said that he believes that there would have been widespread fraud in the election and that he would not accept the result.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: There was a lot of concern and there still is some concern about, you know, how is he going to respond to this defeat? And would he try and even stage, you know, a military uprising or something?
--:-- Noelle King: So tell me about Jair Bolsonaro. The man who lost.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Jair Bolsonaro, for most of his young career, he was in the army. He was an ex-army captain. The country was ruled by a military regime from 1964 to 1985. When the regime fell in 1985 and Brazil became a democracy, Bolsonaro entered politics as a staunch far-right conservative, eventually becoming a congressman for Rio de Janeiro.
--:-- Noelle King: He was on the fringes of Brazilian politics. He was always very much to the right, especially on social issues, less so on economic issues, but he was that crazy guy that no one speaks to.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Bolsonaro is a right-wing ex-military populist who, when in Congress, told a female colleague, I wouldn't rape you, you're not worth it, has said, I would prefer my son to die in an accident than to have him be gay, and loves making finger guns all the time.
--:-- Noelle King: And then comes with the economic crisis here in Brazil. Workers' Party president Dilma Rousseff was impeached in August on charges she mishandled government funds.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Her former vice president, Michel Demmer, took over pledging austerity. Critics say the poor suffer the brunt of the cuts. And people were desperate, desperate for something completely different.
--:-- Noelle King: They wanted someone who was against everything that they'd seen before. They had this opinion which is justified that all politicians in Brazil are corrupt. So they didn't want anyone from the system. They wanted an anti-establishment figure.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Bolsonaro's voters say they're tired of violent crime and corruption in politics, and they blame PT, the left-wing Workers' Party, who've been in power for over a decade.
--:-- Noelle King: Who was Bolsonaro's constituency? I mean, if it was such a close election, millions of people wanted this man to win. Who were they?
--:-- Samantha Pearson: So a lot of richer Brazilians, middle-class Brazilians like Bolsonaro, a lot of the poor support Lula, because Lula has done a lot more and did a lot when he was president in the past to help poor families by giving social welfare, but also putting a lot of poor kids into university, into college.
--:-- Noelle King: Also, the urban areas sometimes tend to vote more in favor of, like, the cultural elite, I would say, would vote for Lula, but then farmers would vote for Bolsonaro.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: So it comes kind of down to, like, social groups rather than necessarily geographical areas, I would think. One of the social groups is evangelical Christians, right?
--:-- Noelle King: Yeah, so that's a huge group in Brazil. It's still unclear exactly how many evangelical Christians there are in Brazil, because there hasn't been a census here since 2010.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: But people, researchers believe that it's probably about one in three Brazilians are now evangelical Christians. Now that's a radical change for a country that you know home to the biggest Catholic population still.
--:-- Noelle King: And it had you know huge changes It brought changes socially economically politically
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Evangelical Christians in Brazil, at least, they tend to be very socially conservative. So from that point of view, they've been big supporters of Bolsonaro.
--:-- Noelle King: Bolsonaro is actually a Catholic, but he keeps that pretty quiet. He's married to an evangelical Christian. And he's friendly with all of the powerful evangelical church leaders in Brazil, who throughout this campaign, even against electoral rules, they've been basically calling for votes within churches, you know, telling people that the only godly choice is Bolsonaro.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: Bolsonaro lost. And if he lost, it has to mean that he messed something up while he was in office. What did he mess up?
--:-- Noelle King: Well, a few things. And it depends on who you speak to, which of those things matters more. But I would say that the COVID pandemic really is a big issue.
--:-- Samantha Pearson: And in fact, that's what we're seeing across Latin America
