--:-- [Sound of a podcast intro]
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Support for today's show comes from Quip electric toothbrushes. The Quip starts at just $25 and your first refill packs are free. After that, they cost about $5 every three months. The Quip itself starts at $25 at getquip.com slash explained right now, G-E-T-Q-U-I-P.com slash explained.
--:-- Alex Ward: Alex Ward, you're one of the hosts of the Worldly Podcast. Can you walk us through what exactly happened between Russia and Ukraine on Sunday morning?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So it's a very scary situation. What could be a major escalation of tension between Russia and Ukraine is developing right now off the coast of Crimea.
--:-- Alex Ward: What we know is that three Ukrainian ships were traveling from Odessa, which is a city with a port on the Black Sea, going through the Kerk Strait to go into the Sea of Azov towards Mariupol, which is a massive port for Ukraine and very important to its economy.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Now, the Ukrainian Navy for years has said, like, hey, you know, this is part of our waters. We have a 2003 treaty to go through. So no problem, right? They've been doing this kind of stuff forever.
--:-- Alex Ward: For some reason this time, it looks like the Russians were quite unhappy with it. What happens is, as these three Ukrainian ships go through the strait, the Russians basically ram one of them. They ram the tugboat. And it looks like they started shooting on the Ukrainian ships as well. And then board them with a raiding party consisting of Russian special forces.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The Ukrainian military says at least six of its naval personnel were injured in that confrontation. So Russia's saying you guys shouldn't be here? Pretty much.
--:-- Alex Ward: And saying that they were illegally within Russian waters. And what's even more kind of damning is that there's this massive new bridge that was opened this year, the Crimean Bridge. So there's really one opening that gets you into the seas as of or, you know, Black Sea, depending where you're going. And a Russian freighter was put lengthwise along that one opening, blocking any access to it.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Wow. What happens next? So then the situation gets even crazier, right? You have Russia sending helicopters and warplanes into the region. You've got American warplanes kind of circling around. They're not close, but it's clearly kind of monitoring what's happening. And then you've got Ukraine starting to mobilize forces. It's unclear exactly what, but heading towards the region.
--:-- Alex Ward: So all of this happened on Sunday. What have both sides of this said since? So it's a war of words, which I guess is better than an actual war.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So the war of words is starting basically with the Ukrainian president who on Sunday, but also on Monday, was saying this was an act of aggression on Russia's part. Put forward what he called a martial law resolution, which basically allows Ukraine to mobilize its forces, naval, air, et cetera, much faster. And this would be in the eastern region where this is all happening.
--:-- Alex Ward: Russia denies any real involvement. Again, says that Ukraine was the aggressor, basically blaming Ukraine as kind of like they did this in order to put sanctions on Russia. This is a well-thought-out provocation. It's all staged, which is of a usual kind of Russian frame that they're being blamed for something they didn't do.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And just today, actually, Russia released this video of Ukrainian sailors confessing that they were the aggressors. These are Ukrainian soldiers who are in Russian captivity right now? Sailors, yeah, in captivity.
--:-- Alex Ward: Because, again, the Russians boarded these Ukrainian ships and have 23 or so sailors in captivity. So I would take that video with a bit of skepticism. They could have been forced to say that. Looking at the body language, it's kind of like, yeah, we were totally the aggressors. Sure. Like you can almost hear the eye roll. Take that for what it is.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But if you look at a video that it does exist, you can find it online. It is from one of the Russian ships that rammed into the Ukrainian tugboat. And there's Russian swear words and whatever. I mean, almost the feeling is like ram them. It does ram the ship. Like, you can hear the thud. It goes like, bah! It shows that, at least in that instance, the Russians were definitely acting pretty aggressively.
--:-- Alex Ward: And if I were a betting man, I would say the Russians were probably the aggressors here. Either way you cut it, you got a David and Goliath situation here. You've got Russia going up against this tiny Ukrainian Navy.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: What's the international community saying NATO or the United Nations, United States? Well, the reaction is kind of what you'd expect.
--:-- Alex Ward: So NATO says it's going to hold this meeting. It's going to, you know, care about this very deeply. We're going to really back Ukraine, which is not a NATO member, right? Not a NATO member. But a lot of allies in NATO are Ukrainian friends. And so they're going to discuss this. It's going to be very, very serious discussion which will probably lead to a condemnation of some sort. But not really much that NATO itself can do.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The UN held an emergency meeting on Monday morning where the Ukrainians blamed the Russians. The Russians denied any involvement. US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, called it an outlaw action that Russia is responsible for this.
--:-- Alex Ward: Sunday's outrageous violation of sovereign Ukrainian territory is part of a pattern of Russian behavior that includes the purported annexation of Crimea and abuses against countless Ukrainians in Crimea, as well as stoking conflict that has taken the lives of more than 10,000 people in eastern Ukraine.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: What Haley did affirm was that there are sanctions already on Russia for its annexation of Crimea in 2014. Right. And so those sanctions would remain in place. There was some small chatter that maybe those sanctions would come off in the future. It looks like they're going to stay on.
--:-- Alex Ward: So if anything, Russia's aggressive actions have made it so sanctions stay on, which is a bit of a backfire. But there's always a but with the U.S. now.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: President Donald Trump was asked about this situation and he definitely hashtagged both sides to it. We do not like what's happening either way. We don't like what's happening. Oh, there are good people on both sides.
--:-- Alex Ward: It was just kind of one of those moments where he wouldn't blame anybody, right? He wouldn't blame Russia, even though Haley had already done so earlier in the day.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Is there a chance that this wasn't just outright Russian aggression? Yeah, there is. Unquestionably.
--:-- Alex Ward: You know, it just doesn't seem like that would happen. I mean, for Ukraine to do this with this very small, weak navy that it has would just have to be really stupid. And so logic kind of says that, you know, both the history of that waterway, what Russia's been doing lately and Ukraine's weakness, it just doesn't really make sense that Ukraine would have been the aggressor here.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Is there any particular reason this has escalated like this right now? Like, why is this happening right now?
--:-- Alex Ward: So the experts I've talked to would point to three main reasons. The first is in October, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church decided basically to split from the Russian Orthodox Church.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Russia has used the Orthodox Church for centuries, really, as a propaganda tool to control in some aspects people under its control in the old Soviet space, even, you know, until today in the Russian space and in many areas in sort of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, et cetera.
--:-- Alex Ward: For that church to split, it shows that Russia's control over Ukraine is kind of slipping, at least in that sense. And so what is celestial in this case actually matters for geopolitics.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Reason number two is in March of 2019, Ukraine will actually have, hold presidential elections. OK. Putin is not a fan of current Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko, mainly because Poroshenko actually likes the West.
--:-- Alex Ward: And so, you know, making Poroshenko look bad by kind of ramming his ships and possibly keeping Ukrainian ships out of the Sea of Azov, where about 80 percent of Ukraine's exports go through, would definitely hurt the Ukrainian economy, which is struggling to recover during the war that it's still fighting.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Making Poroshenko look bad and hurting Ukraine's economy could basically doom Poroshenko, at least. That's one theory.
--:-- Alex Ward: The third reason is that Putin is definitely losing some popularity in Russia. So don't get me wrong. He is still, based on poll numbers alone, fairly popular. He's around 67-ish percent.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But in April, he was in the 80s. And one of the reasons he's losing popularity is because despite the fact that he's promised a great revolution in Russia's economy, everyone's going to benefit. We're going to be a great world power. That hasn't happened.
--:-- Alex Ward: And every time polls slip, Putin seems to find a way to do something pretty massive to get people on his side. Like his poll numbers were slipping in 2014. He sees his Crimea. They skyrocket. You know, maybe he goes, you know, keeping the Ukrainians out of an important sea, showing that I have more control over Ukraine than people think I do might help me get my poll numbers back up.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It's unclear if, you know, all three reasons are responsible, if one of those is responsible. But experts I've talked to point to those three as, you know, why Russia would really be doing this now.
--:-- Alex Ward: I mean, all of these elements, you know, escalating an existing conflict, ramming ships, elections, approval ratings. It sounds like you've got all the elements of like the beginnings of an all-out war.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Is there a chance that this escalates into an international conflict between that other players get involved in? Yes, but it's so small that I wouldn't worry about it. We don't have to add this to our list of things to worry about.
--:-- Alex Ward: No, I think there are apocalyptic headlines uh about this that world war three is imminent and look it could spiral. I'm not gonna lie to you that's a possibility, but it's very small that I wouldn't worry here.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Russia and Ukraine do not want a war here. No one really wants a war here. What it does look like though is the opening of a big new front in the Russia fight. Coming up, the Russia-Ukraine fight. This is Today Explained.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Hello? Hey there, Tim from New York. This is Sean from Today Explained again. Wanted to know if you're still interested in finding yourself a Quip electric toothbrush this holiday season.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Well, rumor has it if you wish upon a Quip hard enough that it'll just, you know, one will just show up at your doorstep.
--:-- Tim: Yeah, I heard that.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You use the dentist branded toothbrush because, what, you go to the dentist a lot or what?
--:-- Tim: No, well, I got insurance this year, so I went to the dentist for the first time in five years. And so our goal of this year is to have general, better oral health. Okay. You know, flossing and crap like that. Trying to stay on top of it.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Okay, great. And you think the Quip could help you to that end?
--:-- Tim: I think it might. I hear good things about it.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Well, just a reminder, I'm not sure if you've heard, but the Quip starts at $25, and your first set of refills is free. And after that, they're $5 every three months for refills. And you can get it all at getquipped.com slash explained until yours just shows up at your doorstep, maybe.
--:-- Tim: What a great explanation of a thing, Sean. Thank you, Tim. This is why I like this podcast.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: To understand what's going on with Russia and Ukraine right now, you got to understand what happened with Crimea in 2014. And to understand what happened with Crimea in 2014, you got to know that Russia is basically the world's biggest jilted ex-boyfriend in all of this.
--:-- Tim: Russia never wanted to break up with Ukraine.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yeah, I think the most important reference point is the breakup of the Soviet Union and the fact that Russia, post-Soviet Russia, has never really come to terms with independent Ukraine as an independent state separate from Russia.
--:-- Gwendolyn Zasa: The breakup was bad enough, but then Ukraine started flirting with the EU and NATO. Russia wanted revenge, so it went straight for the Crimean Peninsula.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Crimea plays a very important role in Russia's self-definition of its identity, its imperial identity, its identity as a state, as a nation.
--:-- Gwendolyn Zasa: But none of that justifies in international legal terms what Russia did in 2014. Russia just dropped in and stole Crimea.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Pressure from Russia is growing. Large groups of pro-Russia troops surrounding Ukrainian bases, ordering their forces off of them so they can occupy them.
--:-- Gwendolyn Zasa: The international warning to Russia to end its invasion is being ignored. And it caught the West by surprise and Ukraine, but also I would say the Crimeans themselves. Crimea was politically well integrated into the Ukrainian state.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And there was absolutely no mobilization in Crimea for unification with Russia.
--:-- Gwendolyn Zasa: What exactly did Russia do in 2014? Could you remind us how they went about the annexation of Crimea?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It was through an increase in the military presence. We have to keep in mind that Russia was already present in the region because of the Black Sea fleet, but then also directly from Moscow.
--:-- Gwendolyn Zasa: Moscow installed a new so-called local political regime, and it staged a referendum, a local referendum. Defying international protests, calling the process illegitimate, Crimea today went ahead with a referendum and voted overwhelmingly to join Russia.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The vote came almost exactly two weeks after thousands of Russian troops occupied the region, which has been part of Ukraine for 60 years, but is also home to the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
--:-- Gwendolyn Zasa: That all happened at high speed. So by March, the middle of March, Crimea was officially integrated into the Russian Federation.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: This created a fait accompli for the international community.
--:-- Gwendolyn Zasa: And did Vladimir Putin face any real consequences for doing this?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: He did to some extent. It hasn't changed anything on the ground.
--:-- Gwendolyn Zasa: Of course, Crimea being part of Russia has not been recognized internationally. The US, the EU and also Ukraine have imposed sanctions on Russia.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: This morning I signed an executive order that authorizes sanctions on individuals and entities responsible for violating the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine or for stealing the assets of the Ukrainian people.
--:-- Gwendolyn Zasa: According to my guidance, the State Department has also put in place restrictions on the travel of certain individuals and officials.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: That was the only way in which Western countries, organizations, institutions could react to this.
--:-- Gwendolyn Zasa: How did Russia react? How did Russians react to the annexation of Crimea?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: There was a massive, and it's still going on, a massive propaganda machine kicked in, presenting this as a long sought after success.
--:-- Gwendolyn Zasa: And a lot of people have either personal fond memories of holidaying in Crimea, or they know the Russian literature in which Crimea plays an important role. And so this really tapped into an emotional side of Russian consciousness, and this boosted Putin's popularity significantly.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And also Russia had always, also by Russians, been seen as a weaker international actor. So that also changed with this event.
--:-- Gwendolyn Zasa: Putin's popularity has recently decreased significantly over a domestic issue. The pension reform that he proposed and that will increase the pension age significantly has proven extremely unpopular.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And it looks as if the regime has not really expected such a reaction. There have been protests all over the country against that.
--:-- Gwendolyn Zasa: So he's once again trying to improve his approval ratings through action abroad or in its territory.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Putin's popularity in Russia is lagging because of pension reform. So he's escalating a war.
--:-- Gwendolyn Zasa: Yes. And also, maybe it's more generally also testing international reactions to an incident that is serious, but as Russia probably thinks still controllable.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So I don't think Russia ultimately has an interest in escalating the situation too much. Russia does not need a full out war with Ukraine or full confrontation with the West.
--:-- Gwendolyn Zasa: It is continuously provoking and this has gone even one step further and once again one step further than what seemed possible to many in the West.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I feel like there's this sense that Vladimir Putin can just do whatever he wants. He can interfere with the United States elections. He can kill people in England. He can annex Crimea.
--:-- Gwendolyn Zasa: What's going to stop him right now?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I think we see some of these actions on Russia's part because the space for Putin to maneuver is ultimately limited.
--:-- Gwendolyn Zasa: So yes, these are extreme actions and I'm not ruling out that there could be more in the next few years. But ultimately it is mostly about signaling that Russia can act independently from the West.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But when military incidents are involved, I think we're always in somewhat uncharted waters because things can go wrong.
--:-- Gwendolyn Zasa: But ultimately, Russia cannot really afford to escalate this too much, and neither can Ukraine.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Militarily, Ukraine would never win a war against Russia, and it knows that very well.
--:-- Gwendolyn Zasa: Ukraine also knows that Western military support is not forthcoming, at least not on the scale that a war could be fought with Russia.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So the interest on both sides ultimately is in de-escalation.
--:-- Gwendolyn Zasa: I'm Sean Ramos from this is Today Explained.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The Quip Electric Toothbrush has all sorts of features that you can sort of show off to your friends. It comes in this pod. It takes batteries so you don't have to plug it in. It has these little vibrations that tell you when to switch quadrants. You can find out all about it at getquip.com.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It also is really quiet. You could listen to a podcast while you brush your teeth with the Quip. Like Function with Anil Dash. It's a new one all about the intersection of technology and culture and how weird things are happening to the way we communicate now because of technology.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Like, you know, the fact that you communicate with your mom with animated GIFs sometimes. That didn't happen when you were a kid. You can find that episode in the feed right now.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Anil speaks with a longtime internet historian, one of the co-creators of Know Your Meme, about the history of the GIF format and how GIFs became a fundamental part of meme and internet culture, check out Function with Anil Dash wherever you find your podcasts.
