--:-- Sean Rameswaram: On Sunday, Mexicans are going to vote. And it's going to be a historic vote. It's going to be the biggest election in Mexican history. Around 100 million people are called to cast ballots. Millions of Mexicans abroad are also expected to take part in the process. After the dust settles, Mexico will have its first-ever woman president. We're going to win the governors. And there will be president of the Republic and it will be the fourth transformation. ¡Que viva Morena! The betting money is on Claudia Scheinbaum.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: About a month ago, she was traveling through the southern Chiapas state when masked men stopped her vehicle to interrogate her. Was she going to do something to address all the violence? Was she going to do something about security? We're going to ask the same questions on Today Explained.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Support for this show comes from ServiceNow. AI is only as powerful as the platform it's built into, don't you know? That's why it's no surprise that more than 85% of the Fortune 500 use the ServiceNow AI platform. Didn't know that. While other platforms duct tape tools together, ServiceNow seamlessly unifies people, data, workflows, and AI, connecting every corner of your business. And with AI agents working together autonomously, anyone in any department can focus on the work that matters most. I've never met an AI agent. Learn how ServiceNow puts AI to work for people at ServiceNow.com.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Support for this show comes from Strawberry.me. Be honest. Are you happy with your job? Or are you stuck in one you've outgrown or never wanted in the first place? Sure, you can probably list the reasons for staying, but are they actually just excuses for not leaving? Let a career coach from strawberry.me help you get unstuck. Discover the benefits of having a dedicated career coach in your corner. Go to strawberry.me slash unstuck to claim a special offer.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Estar escuchando a hoy explicado. Today, explain. Megan Janetsky covers Central America and Mexico for the Associated Press. And speaking to her, it became very clear that you couldn't really talk about Mexico's likely future president, Claudia Scheinbaum, without talking about Mexico's outgoing president, Andres Manuel López Obrador, or AMLO.
--:-- Megan Janetsky: Yeah, so in a lot of ways, AMLO has kind of been larger than life in this election. The thing you have to know is that he's highly popular. You know, when he got elected almost six years ago, it was a big deal because he had unseated the party that had been in power for 70 plus years. And that's because he spoke to a swath of the population that has long felt forgotten by the political establishment. You know, you have poor Mexicans, Mexicans in rural areas that simply by walking and talking like them. Speaking in the same way, they feel represented in a lot of ways.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It's interesting because really none of the other candidates have that same charisma that he has. Despite a lot of his policies, especially like the security policy being relatively controversial, he's still loved by a great portion of Mexico. Tell me about security policy. Tell me what promises he made to the Mexican people when he was running for office, when he was entering office regarding security.
--:-- Megan Janetsky: So a big part of his government was basically on rewiring the way Mexico takes on crime, in part to distance himself from other former presidents like Felipe Calderón, who launched a drug war and saw violence shoot up. Calderón can claim some success. In December 2009, Mexican Marines killed the so-called boss of bosses, drug lord Arturo Beltran Leva, after a two-hour shootout here in Cuernavaca. And basically, AMLO, his idea was instead of taking out these kingpins and pursuing these criminal groups like they have for a long time, pursue a policy that he referred to as abrazos. Abrazos. No, balazos. No, balazos. Or like hugs, not bullets, is kind of the rough translation.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And the core of the strategy is basically addressing what he described as the root causes of violence. — We believe that human beings are not born evil. It is the circumstances that lead some to take the path of antisocial behavior. And if we change those circumstances, we can live in a better society. — Rooting out corruption in the police and expanding social welfare programs to, you know, like, poor and marginalized communities.
--:-- Megan Janetsky: Lopez Obrador has spent unapologetically on social programs, doubling the minimum wage, increasing pensions and scholarships. So the idea is essentially that if you provide them with opportunities, they fuel the ranks less of, for instance, cartels and other groups. His approval rating has remained high, upwards of 60 percent for most of his presidency. That captured the attention of a lot of voters when he was elected. Hugs, not bullets. Policy, not drug war. Yeah.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: How does that go once he enters office? Looking back now, many say AMLO's strategy has been more based on pushing a PR campaign than actually solving Mexico's security problems, which is a lot harder. So in many cases, his government has declined to confront cartels and other criminal groups.
--:-- Megan Janetsky: Can you reach the cartel and say, knock it off? What you have to do with the criminals is apply the law. But I'm not going to establish contact, communication with a criminal, the president of Mexico. They've expanded a lot, and it's basically allowed them to continue further carving out these fiefdoms in strategic parts of Mexico. Many say it also has allowed cartels to expand in power. So you know extortion has gone up massively You seen cartels using higher caliber arms using drones to drop effectively bombs on security forces, using armored vehicles, using makeshift IEDs.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: He also did make significant changes in a way. You know, he launched a major social welfare program, but what it really did was replace the former program, which provides funds to specific vulnerable populations with one that, you know, hands out payments like across the board. So effectively, like Mexico's poorest are suddenly receiving less money while some of Mexico's wealthiest started getting money they didn't really need.
--:-- Megan Janetsky: In Mexico City, the wealth gap between the richest and the poorest is one of the widest anywhere in the world. He also proposed demilitarizing the public security and reforming the police. And he did disband the corrupt federal police and replace it with National Guard. But you also see his government using the military for things that you wouldn't normally think of the military doing, like building a train in the south of the country and, you know, not sharing information about a project that would normally be public and claiming It was a matter of national security.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So in a lot of ways, the military has entered the civilian atmosphere in ways that previously you didn't really see. So he's reinvested in the Mexican military. But six or so years later, is Mexico safer? Did he deliver on this promise?
--:-- Megan Janetsky: So I would say it depends who you ask. You know, if you ask many Mexicans, your tortilla vendor, people in disputed areas of Mexico, it's pretty bad. Under AMLO, cartels and other criminal groups have expanded in power. Extortion has expanded. These groups have grown, you know, more complex to the point where oftentimes they're compared more to like giant illegal companies that are constantly ahead of authorities in this cat and mouse game. Because they're warring with each other. They constantly have to, you know, one up each other, think of more creative strategies, trickling into other things that aren't just like drug trafficking, you know.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So you have them entering like the lucrative avocado industry, real estate scams. I even a few months ago did a story about how one gang was effectively forcing locals to pay to access hijacked Wi-Fi. The Los Biagras cartel are behind the threats in multiple towns in Mexico's Mishra Khan state. They allegedly forced over 5,000 locals to use their stolen antennas, charging up to 500 pesos per month to use it. They were told if they didn't, they'd be killed.
--:-- Megan Janetsky: And this makes them more flexible as well. You know, they have other profit margins that way when the authorities zig, they zag. And they've also dipped their feet even more into the migrant smuggling industry, which obviously is very lucrative nowadays. A senior U.S. official tells us amid a global migration surge that the trafficking industry is booming. It's now a multi-billion dollar business.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: That said, the government says that things have gotten better and they cite homicide rates, which are about the same as when Lopez Obrador took office. But, you know, you have other things like many say forced disappearances are on the rise. Demonstrators outside a federal government building in Mexico City. They're the families of missing persons, and they say they want answers over why dozens of case files have been erased from the official government census on forced disappearances.
--:-- Megan Janetsky: And I think overall, what few can dispute is that, you know, the criminal framework And all of these different moving parts are far more complex today than they were like 15 years ago. So I don't really get it. Homicide rates are basically the same. Disappearance rates are up. But you're saying AMLO is this super popular president and his chosen successor, Claudia Scheinbaum, is all but sure to win.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It's because, again, you know, he has tapped into a swath of the population that has always felt forgotten. Poor rural Mexicans have never felt considered by, like, Mexico City elite, despite the fact that, for instance, a lot of poor populations haven't benefited as much from his welfare program. And that violence in swaths of the country continues to be really high and things continue to be really dangerous, they also see a man that talks like them, that speaks to them, you know, and sees them as a political asset.
--:-- Megan Janetsky: So that's why Claudia Sheinbaum continues to be at the top of the polls. One thing she cites a lot is that she's the former mayor of Mexico City, which is significant because Mexico City basically hasn't been as hard hit by cartel violence like you've seen in a lot of rural areas. She's basically pitched herself to the Mexican public as a continuation of AMLO and his policies.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Does that mean that she's not going to be much different on this significant question of security in Mexico?
--:-- Megan Janetsky: I think the big question looking forward in security and just everything else is like, is Claudia Scheimgong going to be AMLO 2.0 or is she going to chart her own path? What is notable is that you know no matter what path she chooses to take she is inheriting a puzzle that is more complicated than pretty much any other Mexican president has inherited before you know you have all of these different warring factions you have more flexible groups diving into different industries and stuff like that it just way harder to unravel than it was before.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And that not just because of AMLO government but just because over the course of years and years and years these criminal groups have been adapting.
--:-- Megan Janetsky: Megan Janetsky, AP.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: When we're back on TE, what to do when you can't just get rid of all the criminals?
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Support for today's show comes from Adio. What is Adio? Adio is an AI-native customer relationship management system built specifically for the next era of companies. They say it's extremely powerful, adapts to your unique data structures and scales with any business model. According to Adio, Adio takes less than a minute to set up. And within seconds, you will have your email and calendars synced. You'll see all your relationships in a fully fledged platform, they say, all enriched with that actionable data. And they say you can build AI powered automations and use its research agent to tackle some of your most complex processes to seize so that you can focus on what matters, building your company. You can join industry leaders such as Flatfile, Replicate, Modal and so much more. You can go to addio.com slash today explained to get 15% off your first year. That's A-T-T-I-O dot com slash today explained.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Support for this show comes from Macy's. It's almost fall and that means it's time to cycle your wardrobe to the cold setting. Because while everyone loves a breezy summer outfit, let's be real. Layering is even more fun. That's why Macy's Fall Fashion Guide has everything you need to piece together the perfect look for you. It's your one-stop shop for fall's latest trends and must-haves, curated by their experts. Add a statement shoe to your collection, like the calf-hair loafers from Steve Madden. Or tap into your romantic side with flowy dresses from Cece and sheer pieces from INC. You can even throw in some textural layers for contrast, like a faux fur bomber jacket from Karl Lagerfeld Paris.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Whether your old favorite sweater or coat is on its last threads, or you're just craving a new vibe to switch things up, Macy's has got you covered this season. Find the perfect layering pieces for you by exploring the Macy's Fall Fashion Style Guide. Shop in-store or online at Macy's.com.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Support for the show today comes from Life Kit, the podcast from NPR. What's in your Life Kit? I'm asking. They didn't ask that. Every day you have to make choices that might shape the direction of your life, but you can't flip to the back of the book to find an answer key. Instead, you can listen to the Life Kit podcast from NPR. Life Kit offers real stories about common issues like relationships, finances, parenting, and your career. If you're looking to move with more intention or just need thoughtful guidance on living better, Life Kit delivers strategies to help you make meaningful, sustainable change from fitness routines to mental resilience, navigating personal goals to tackling burnout.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Each episode is full of relevant insights and clear takeaways about things we all could use a little help with. LifeKit wants to help you approach your own life with confidence and clarity and walk away with a game plan you can implement right away. Enough from me. Go listen to the show, LifeKit. It's a podcast from NPR.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Are you a Mexican or a Mexicant? I'm a Mexican. I'm Falco Ernst. I'm the Senior Mexico Analyst at the International Crisis Group.
--:-- Falco Ernst: When did the cartels and the gangs and the violence become such a predominant issue for Mexican politicians at the national level?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Corruption has always been a factor in Mexican politics and there's never been a clear dividing line between state and crime in Mexico. Organized crime became powerful in the 20th century under the wings of authoritarian rule at the time led by the PRI party. The party that ruled Mexico from 1929 to 2000 for more than 70 years. And essentially they provided and sold protection to the drug cartels and they could grow as an effect.
--:-- Falco Ernst: And then at the same time, you had one president, Felipe Calderón, start what he called an all-out war against the cartels with U.S. help and a lot of US money being pumped into the process. It's a common problem. It's an international problem. And the beginning of this sad story is that we have a neighbor which is the largest consumer of drugs in the world.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So the United States needs to reduce the consumption of drugs one way or another. And essentially that led to a lot of kingpins being taken out of the picture, being killed, being arrested, being extradited to the US. But instead of the hopes that their organizations would falter as an automatic effect of these arrests, they splintered and now you have many parts fighting over the throne and fighting over the inheritance of one's large organizations.
--:-- Falco Ernst: Calderón himself went on national television Tuesday night to appeal to his countrymen to support the battle against organized crime. I say this is a fight of all Mexicans because criminals don't discriminate. They hurt all of society. And so you end up with a situation where you have about 200 illegal armed groups out there today on Mexican streets.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: They're fighting each other, but no one is sufficiently powerful to actually get the job done and achieve dominance. But criminal groups appear to have used this land in the state of Veracruz to dump at least 250 victims in a series of pits They've been found not by the authorities but a group of more than 100 mothers Most of these cases have happened without any type of judicial action or clarification for the victims
--:-- Falco Ernst: We have a number of search collectives It's mostly mothers looking for the disappeared family members, for the disappeared children on the streets, fighting this inertia without really result for the most part. And I've personally witnessed a number of cases where people lose their lives, they disappear, they're being killed by criminal groups. And afterwards the family members don even go to the authorities and let them know what happened because they have no expectation for justice being delivered
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And that includes innocent bystanders A lot of them have been displaced, for instance, over the past years as criminal groups have gone more paramilitary and they fight each other over micro-territories.
--:-- Falco Ernst: There's a popular saying in Mexico that it's better to live five years as a king, as a rey, than 50 years as an ox, as a boy. And the idea here is that the opportunities for the long term, for particularly poorer youth, is so limited that it's better to go with the narcos now and be a narco king than just be a laborer who would live a long time.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I think the public in general has also come to accept and come to normalize that people are killed by the thousands and that there is a suspicion that a lot of people who suffer this kind of violence deserve it because they must have been involved somehow.
--:-- Falco Ernst: That doesn't sound like hugs, not bullets at all. There's a lot of contradictions to that policy. I mean, from our field work, again, talking to military commanders, talking to criminal bosses and other members of these groups, there has been an offer for a more peaceful coexistence between state security forces and criminal groups in order to get public violence down, at least.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So essentially, the offer has been, you don't murder as publicly anymore and we'll leave you alone. You're talking about corruption, colluding with criminals. Well, I mean, there's a thin line between corruption and pragmatic pacification, to put it this way.
--:-- Falco Ernst: You've had these understandings in place between both sides for as long as the Mexican state and crime has existed. That doesn't have to be necessarily a bad thing if you think strictly in terms of stabilization. Because there is a reckoning in Mexico, and especially these high-conflict areas, that you will never get rid of drugs trafficking. That is an illusion which is deeply rooted in northern thinking and U.S. foreign policy, but on the ground.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I mean, we've been fighting the war on drugs for 50 years, and drugs keep on flowing across the border, and people keep on dying in Central America and Mexico and Colombia and so on and so forth.
--:-- Falco Ernst: So people are looking to other means, other solutions to get the violence down. So either way, in order to implement any policy to bring about more peaceful times in Mexico is to first start cleaning your own institutions. But essentially that has also failed because the ambitions were too great. They tried to fix everything at the same time and you're up against hundreds of thousands of police and military and justice officers, prosecutors that all come into, you know, shady ties essentially with the criminal world.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And so those processes have succumbed to their own ambitions, essentially, and really haven't worked when we look at the continuously high impunity rate in Mexico that really hasn't moved, or if it has moved, it's moved in the wrong direction.
--:-- Falco Ernst: So if you want to have any chance of stemming the violence, you have to first clean up your own institutions. Is Claudia Scheinbaum colluding? Do we know?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I wouldn't stick my head out that much on that question, to be honest, basically, because there's no proof for that.
--:-- Falco Ernst: What I can say is that from, you know, judging from our investigations we've done on the ground and other organizations' investigations, that there is a lot of a criminal element in all political parties, because ultimately, especially at the regional level, you cannot separate politics from criminality.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And so elections are won through illicit campaign financing. They are won because criminal groups that control chunks of the population will use those chunks to negotiate deals with candidates, with political parties, and they will ask for something in return once they've invested.
--:-- Falco Ernst: But I think ultimately this incoming administration also has to ask itself the question until when Mexico is going to remain stable if criminal groups feel more empowered, show a greater self-esteem in dealing with the state. more frankly confronting on a military front, even the armed forces, setting up ambushes and so on and so forth.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Because ultimately the conundrum we're facing right now in Mexico is that security for the poor has been going really bad. And they provide the greatest toll for what's going on on the ground. But at the same time, economic growth has been quite stable. There is this nearshoring moment right now that benefits Mexico and places it in a more central position in global trade as, for instance, the US is moving further away from China.
--:-- Falco Ernst: And so these two processes have been opposed to really not allow an urgency for doing the right thing on the ground when it comes to security. But that equation might not pan out in the medium and long term. And I think this is something that this incumbent administration is thinking about.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So at best, this historic first woman president in Mexico may bring about some incremental change. Exactly. Yeah. So, I mean, this is not going to go away quick and easy.
--:-- Falco Ernst: The weight of the criminal economy has become so great that they have a lot of leeway, they have a lot of resilience, among other things, because a lot of illicit funds have already been invested into a legal economy. You take that money out, the economy is going down pretty dramatically in some regions. So there's a structural dependence, essentially, that also hinders decisive action against those that pump those funds into the legal economy.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Falco Ernst, International Crisis Group.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Our program today was produced by Denise Guerra. We were edited by Matthew Collette and Amina Alsadi and fact-checked by Laura Bullard. David Herman and Andrea Kristinsdottir mixed the show.
