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--:-- Noel King: I have lived in D.C. for a while, and I feel like I just took them for granted. I didn't come visit them enough, and now that they're leaving, I want to say goodbye to them. China's president, Xi Jinping, recently recalled three Chinese diplomats from Washington, D.C. It's a shame for us that they're going back. They were not human, these ambassadors. If they were, the pained reaction of D.C. residents would be bizarre. No, they were giant panda bears, and days ago they took a FedEx plane called the Panda Express back to China.
--:-- Noel King: China first started gifting pandas to zoos around the world decades ago. It was a demonstration of soft power. And then in recent years, it's begun loaning them for large fees. But those loan agreements are coming to an end.
--:-- Noel King: On Wednesday, President Biden will meet with President Xi in San Francisco during an economic summit, and we're told that pandas will not be on the agenda. But that's okay. They're on ours. It's Today Explained.
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--:-- Noel King: Not all journalism is the same. Take The Guardian. Our coverage has something unique. Fierce independence. Nobody owns us or tells us what we can and can't say. So we're free to report the whole picture.
--:-- Noel King: We connect what's happening in Washington to the rest of the globe, expose corruption wherever we find it, and give fresh perspective on everything from wellness and soccer to culture, the climate and more. Read, watch and listen to The Guardian for free at theguardian.com.
--:-- Noel King: You're listening to Today Explained. Ian, go ahead, give me your full name and tell me what you do.
--:-- Ian Johnson: My name is Ian Johnson. I am the Senior Fellow for China Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
--:-- Noel King: Ian, do we know what is on the agenda for this meeting between Biden and Xi?
--:-- Ian Johnson: We have a pretty good idea based on issues that matter to both countries, but there's not a specific agenda that either country has released.
--:-- Noel King: So we know that certain things are going to be brought up because they matter to both countries, and there's going to be probably a far-ranging discussion on almost everything that matters between the two.
--:-- Ian Johnson: What are the top-line items? What's important to both countries?
--:-- Ian Johnson: Well, I think for China, it's going to be Taiwan. Taiwan is the island that it claims as a part of its territory. It's self-governing and it's democratic. It lies off the coast of China. And they are having elections in January.
--:-- Ian Johnson: Beijing may try to discipline Taiwan's new government by demonstrating how formidable Chinese power, military and otherwise, is. They want the United States to commit to not supporting independence for Taiwan.
--:-- Ian Johnson: This is a red line issue for them. They would probably go to war if Taiwan were to declare independence.
--:-- Noel King: I think for the United States, also they want China not to interfere in Taiwan's election and let the people there decide how they want to be governed in the future.
--:-- Ian Johnson: America must stay true to our values and remain consistent in our support for the people of Taiwan, who share America's people's desire to live in peace, freedom, and democracy.
--:-- Noel King: Also on the agenda is probably going to be something important to U.S. voters, especially to Biden, and that would be the fentanyl crisis.
--:-- Ian Johnson: China makes some of the drugs that are used to manufacture fentanyl, and the administration is going to want them to not do that, not export that and to crack down on that kind of thing.
--:-- Noel King: We called on President Xi to work with the United States to stem the flow of precursor chemicals that are fueling America's fentanyl prices.
--:-- Ian Johnson: I think both countries are probably going to also talk about the economy and how they can improve economic ties and things like that.
--:-- Ian Johnson: And in general, I think also for Xi Jinping, it really matters, the optics really matter, that there's the photo op afterwards.
--:-- Ian Johnson: He has essentially, over the past decade, turned his back on the recipe for success that China had in the 80s, 90s, 2000s, which was opening up to the outside world, reforming more pro-market reforms.
--:-- Ian Johnson: He's turned his back on that, and there are a lot of people grumbling about that inside China. So for him to be able to show, look, I'm meeting the President of the United States, we have a good relationship, things are moving forward, that's really important.
--:-- Noel King: China's economy has struggled this year in some very real ways. The U.S. economy is struggling less, even though because interest rates are high and inflation is high, Americans seem to think it's struggling.
--:-- Ian Johnson: Are we looking at this meeting? Are we looking at any particular formal economic agreements?
--:-- Ian Johnson: Well, I think it's an interesting role reversal because for years it's been China, which has had the economy roaring ahead, and the United States, which has been much slower.
--:-- Ian Johnson: Now we have China's economy slowing high youth unemployment. Last year there were protests for the first time.
--:-- Ian Johnson: Imagine if your bank accounts were frozen without warning. Where you've been paying for an apartment that hasn't been built. That's happening in China.
--:-- Ian Johnson: By the contrast, the United States, even though, as you mentioned, interest rates are high and a lot of people are feeling pain because of that. The economic growth is still pretty good. It's near 5%.
--:-- Ian Johnson: So that's something that China has roughly also 5% growth, but it's a much poorer country. So it should be growing a lot faster than the United States.
--:-- Ian Johnson: So it'll be kind of interesting, I think, for the United States at the summit in general, not just with Biden and Xi, but the whole APEX summit to say, hey, you know, our system isn't so bad. We actually also have fast economic growth, etc.
--:-- Ian Johnson: This is only the second time that Xi and Biden have met each other since Biden became president. They met each other before when Biden was vice president.
--:-- Ian Johnson: It's important because you know we don't know what kind of information Xi Jinping is getting. He broke term limits. He now ruling basically for life it appears. He's surrounded by all accounts and by how we can observe things.
--:-- Ian Johnson: Yes, man, there's a fair amount of political turmoil at the top. So we don't know what kind of information Xi Jinping is getting.
--:-- Ian Johnson: It's important that we sit down face-to-face with him, bypass all the handlers and so on, and just for Biden to be able to tell him what U.S. policy is and what kind of things we need to have a more stable long-term relationship.
--:-- Noel King: How would you characterize what's happened in the past year? Is the relationship between the United States and China since that last meeting, is it getting better? Is it getting worse? It is about the same?
--:-- Ian Johnson: I think it's gotten a little bit better. At the beginning of this year, there was the spy balloon incident.
--:-- Ian Johnson: A Chinese spy balloon was, by all accounts, pushed off course, went over the United States, and then eventually U.S. fighters shot it down.
--:-- Ian Johnson: Look at this statement coming from the Chinese defense ministry. Quote, the U.S. used force to attack our civilian unmanned airship, which is an obvious overreaction.
--:-- Ian Johnson: We expressed solemn protest against this move by the U.S. side and reserve the right to use necessary means to deal with similar situations.
--:-- Ian Johnson: And that was probably a low point of relations. But since then, there's been this effort to say, hey, let's not let things get out of control here.
--:-- Ian Johnson: We have two extremely powerful militaries. There are a lot of points of tension in the Pacific, such as Taiwan. We don't want to really lurch into a war. We have to be very careful about this.
--:-- Ian Johnson: So I've seen more and more ties between senior leaders. Kerry went to Beijing. Blinken went to Beijing. The senior Chinese diplomat came to Washington, etc.
--:-- Ian Johnson: The meetings are an important step in thawing relations between China and the U.S., even though Beijing and Washington likely have different agendas this week.
--:-- Ian Johnson: I think there's an effort just probably also because both leaders need this relationship to be quiet, to be calm.
--:-- Ian Johnson: Next year is an election year in the United States, obviously. Biden already is facing two crises on the foreign policy front.
--:-- Ian Johnson: One is the Hamas war and the other is Ukraine, which is still percolating along out of the headlines right now, but it's still going on.
--:-- Ian Johnson: And the United States is making huge commitments. We can't afford to have another crisis now in the Asia Pacific area.
--:-- Ian Johnson: I think for China, the economy is so bad, so slow. They want to focus on that and getting that right and not bump into the United States and have some kind of a crisis there.
--:-- Noel King: How could China play into the 2024 election?
--:-- Ian Johnson: I think it could only really play a role if there were some kind of a crisis.
--:-- Ian Johnson: Famously, foreign policy doesn't really affect the overall outcome of elections. Most of it are on checkbook issues, pocketbook issues.
--:-- Ian Johnson: And so it's going to be basically probably decided on how people feel about the future of the U.S. economy and the future of the country in general more broadly.
--:-- Ian Johnson: If there were, however, a war over Taiwan, then people would maybe think, oh, is Biden really the expert on foreign policy?
--:-- Ian Johnson: He's supposed to be the seasoned pro as opposed to Trump, who sort of had this reputation perhaps for being outspoken and brusque and ruffling feathers.
--:-- Ian Johnson: But Biden has got us into several crises. This could be the argument, right?
--:-- Ian Johnson: And so I think it's really important for the Democrats and for the administration to tamp this down and to try to put it on the back burner and just make sure it stays there for another year.
--:-- Noel King: Right. And if there is a crisis, I would imagine that some of the criticism Biden would get is that he's been distracted by Ukraine.
--:-- Ian Johnson: He's been distracted by what's going on between Israel and Hamas. He's not paid enough attention. I mean, that's always a vulnerability, right?
--:-- Ian Johnson: It is vulnerability. Don't forget, like about 10 years ago, the Obama administration said we were going to pivot to Asia.
--:-- Ian Johnson: Oh, yeah. We were going to put behind us the forever wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and we were going to put our effort on the future of the world, which is this global rivalry, if you will, between the United States and China or cooperation, etc.
--:-- Ian Johnson: As we end today's wars, I have directed my national security team to make our presence and mission in the Asia-Pacific a top priority.
--:-- Ian Johnson: And that worked for a while. That was also a focus of attention, the Trump administration. But now it seems like we're pivoting back to the Middle East and pivoting back to Europe.
--:-- Ian Johnson: And so I think in this context, we need to make sure that Asia doesn't become another flashpoint.
--:-- Noel King: Are you based in Washington, D.C.?
--:-- Ian Johnson: No, I'm in New York City.
--:-- Noel King: You're in New York City, but you heard about the pandas, right?
--:-- Ian Johnson: Yeah. I did hear about the pandas, yeah.
--:-- Noel King: What does it mean? Because I'm seeing a lot of very dark talk about those pandas going home to China means bad things for U.S.-China diplomacy.
--:-- Ian Johnson: Yeah. You think they'll come up at the meeting?
--:-- Ian Johnson: Yeah, could be. But to me, this is sort of an own goal by China. I don't know why they insist on treating this like some kind of a trade deal.
--:-- Ian Johnson: I mean, at the end of the day, the animals are not really endangered anymore. They could give them to countries around the world, but they treat them as some sort of proprietary technology.
--:-- Ian Johnson: If a baby panda is born, you know, it belongs to China. You can never have your own pandas.
--:-- Noel King: That was Ian Johnson of the Council on Foreign Relations. Coming up, China's loan of the pandas, its panda diplomacy. Has that time come to an end?
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--:-- Noel King: People from every background, young and old, find themselves drawn to pandas because they're cute, they're round.
--:-- Noel King: They engage in antics that seem somewhat human-like, you know. They sit down with their legs sprawled and crunch on bamboo like you might imagine a toddler doing, even though these are adult, mature pandas.
--:-- Noel King: And so this is something that viewers really love.
--:-- Noel King: And the idea that having these animals as representatives of China overseas puts a friendly face of China in the presence of citizens around the globe.
--:-- Noel King: E. Elena Songster is a professor of history at St. Mary's College of California, and she's also author of the book Panda Nation, the construction and conservation of China's modern icon.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: Now, before 1972, China and the United States were more or less enemies.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: And then Richard Nixon traveled to China in what was possibly one of the most important geopolitical meetings of all time.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: No shade to Xi and Biden. And China gifted two pandas to the U.S.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: So when China sent pandas to the United States, there were hundreds of people who lined up to welcome them.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: And best of all, for the gift of the pandas, which all children, whatever age, will enjoy.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: And I include myself in that category. Mrs. Nixon was there and other important dignitaries and officials were all there welcoming the pandas.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: It was written in newspaper accounts.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: I think pandemonium is going to break out right here at the zoo. Thank you very much.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: People were as amazed by the reception as they were by the pandas themselves, and likened the arrival of the pandas to something that would be expected as if Mao Zedong himself was coming to the United States.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: And then, subsequent to this, Japan normalized relations with China.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: And so there was an immediate expectation that that warming of relations was also going to be accompanied by a gift of a pair of pandas.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: And they were received with even more pomp and circumstance and crowds in Japan when that display was first opened.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: What is the panda's symbolic value? What does the bear itself symbolize beyond sending it means we're friends?
--:-- E. Elena Songster: The giant panda has never been formally chosen as like the national emblem of the People's Republic of China.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: However, it has been chosen as a mascot for the Olympic Games and these types of things.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: And its symbolic value is something that has grown over time.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: And I attribute it in a lot of ways to the politics and culture of the People's Republic of China.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: Prior to the 20th century, people in China didn't pay much attention to the giant panda.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: You will not find brush painting or silk painting or silk embroidery or bamboo carving or paper cutouts with pandas prior to the 20th century because it wasn't an important animal in traditional Chinese culture.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: I argue that's one of the reasons it becomes important in the 20th century, particularly under the government of the People's Republic of China, because you can divorce it from all of the kind of burden and implications of the imperial period.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: And the communist government wanted people to express modern ideals in artwork.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: And so the panda was a way to do that.
--:-- Noel King: How and why does the panda go from a gift in 1972 to a loan today?
--:-- E. Elena Songster: Yes, it was very clear to the Chinese government, this is a really powerful diplomatic tool.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: And it subsequently gave pandas to several other countries, including the UK and France and Spain and Mexico.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: But in 1983, there was a bamboo flowering.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: And that sounds like a lovely thing, but it actually means that a whole hillside of bamboo dies off.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: It flowers and then dies off. It's part of the natural life cycle.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: The problem for pandas is that they eat bamboo, and if a whole hillside of bamboo dies, it's hard for them to find food.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: There was concern that this might lead to panda starvation in the wild.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: And as a result, the government thought we shouldn't be giving away our pandas.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: But because panda diplomacy was so popular and beneficial, they decided that they would loan pandas to other countries.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: This is also during the 1980s when China is opening up. You have Deng Xiaoping's market reforms.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: And so this concept of bringing in money was very much welcomed by China as well.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: So they started this thing called short-term loans.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: It was, however, not good for the individual pandas because it put the individuals under a lot of stress and came under tremendous criticism by animal experts.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: And so that was brought to an end first in the United States in the early 90s and replaced with the model that occurs presently which is the long scientific exchange loan
--:-- E. Elena Songster: A loan, unlike a gift, comes with terms.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: Is there money involved?
--:-- E. Elena Songster: Yes, the terms include quite an expensive loan fee, and that ranges from $500,000 to a million dollars. A year.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: A year.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: And then the agreement is that it's a long-term loan, so it's a 10-year agreement.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: So when a zoo signs up for this type of agreement, they're committing easily $10 million over the course of 10 years to send to China for the sake of this loan.
--:-- Noel King: When does panda diplomacy begin to stop working?
--:-- E. Elena Songster: Panda diplomacy, yes, even with these terms, you have to send back the cubs, you have to pay a lot of money.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: The model generally works quite well, but it stops working when things go awry.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: Most recently in the United States, there was concern at the Memphis Zoo on the part of both animal activists in the United States and Chinese netizens about the treatment of the pandas in the Memphis Zoo.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: Right now, the Memphis Zoo is responding to anger on social media centered around its two pandas, Lola and Yaya.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: Earlier today, pop superstar Billie Eilish showed her support for a petition which is demanding the two animals be sent back to China.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: Alleging they're not being properly cared for.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: I can pretty much guarantee you that the panda is a very precious exhibit and wouldn't be mistreated.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: But it happened that, unfortunately for the Memphis Zoo, one of the pandas did die there due to a heart condition.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: And the other panda had a skin condition that was well known, but it made the panda look less than ideal in terms of having patchy fur and this type of thing.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: And so because of that, what was very interesting about that is kind of brought together citizens of the United States and citizens of China, but they were brought together in opposition of the panda loan out of concern for the pandas.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: And as a result, there is a lot of objection to even panda diplomacy at all if these precious animals might be in a situation where they wouldn't get ultimate care.
--:-- Noel King: What happens to the pandas when they get back to China?
--:-- E. Elena Songster: Oh yeah, they have good lives.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: They go to well-established breeding centers that are generally speaking in or near the natural habitat of the giant panda, and they're cared for by a slew of caretakers.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: The keeper's tasks during the day are aplenty. They also have to clean the enclosures, displace of bamboo, and prepare meals for the 30 pandas.
--:-- Noel King: Do you think the era of panda diplomacy is over?
--:-- E. Elena Songster: We've all become a bit too cynical and savvy and the world is too complex.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: I don't think that panda diplomacy is over. I think that panda diplomacy is alive and well, but I think that it's shifting a bit.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: I'm confident that it's not over because it's still actively present in other countries.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: And so very recently, China sent a pair of pandas to Qatar to accompany their hosting of the World Cup.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: Pandas in Germany and pandas in Russia. So I think that panda diplomacy is alive and well.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: It's a very successful form of soft diplomacy because people adore the panda so much.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: But there is a shift taking place and you can see all of the pandas will be leaving the United States, leaving Scotland.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: The pandas in Australia are under question. They're scheduled to return back.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: I know that Australia recently has expressed a desire and hope that they'll be able to negotiate an extension or an exchange.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: The Panda agreements that are coming to an end are all agreements that were established prior to Xi Jinping's taking office.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: And you know if you're thinking about this from his perspective and maybe it's not him personally but the perspective of the leadership why would you want to have these important diplomatic touch points across the globe that are inherited from previous leadership when you have an opportunity to bring the agreement to an end in a kind of natural seeming way.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: You're not cutting things short or jerking the pandas back before their loan agreement comes to a natural end.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: But then it puts you in a very good position for negotiating new agreements on your own terms that are part of your own legacy.
--:-- E. Elena Songster: And certainly China will be in a very good negotiating position with the United States if there are zero pandas in the United States.
--:-- Noel King: That's E. Elena Songster. Her book is called Panda Nation, The Construction and Conservation of China's Modern Icon.
--:-- Noel King: Today's episode was produced by Avishai Artsy.
--:-- Noel King: Avishai got to say goodbye to the pandas at the National Zoo before flying home to Los Angeles.
--:-- Noel King: The show was edited by Matthew Collette, who quite literally pumped his fist in the air when the pandas left because he is not a fan of pandas.
--:-- Noel King: Serena Solon is our fact checker, and Rob Byers is our engineer.
--:-- Noel King: I'm Noelle King. It's Today Explained.
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