--:-- [Theme music fades out]
--:-- Noel King: It's Today Explained, and let's start with some facts. Both men running to be president of these United States are elderly. They do elderly people things. They forget where they are, forget what they're talking about, forget what they've promised, claim they've recently talked to long-dead people. But it's only really hurting one of them.
--:-- Host: Mr. President, do voters have concerns about your age? How are you going to dissuade them? And do you fear that this report is only going to fuel further concerns about your age?
--:-- Donald Trump: Only by some of you. Remember, turn your face to the moonlight.
--:-- Noel King: Donald Trump, who this week cheerfully encouraged Russia to attack America's NATO allies, is not hurting. He's leaning in. He's playing memory from cats at his rallies. He's yelling about sleepy Joe Biden. And it's working. Polls show his incoherence is not hurting him the way it's hurting Biden.
--:-- [Sound effects: A cat meowing]
--:-- Noel King: Coming up. Memory all alone.
--:-- [Sound effects: A cat meowing continues]
--:-- Noel King: Support for this show comes from ServiceNow. AI is only as powerful as the platform it's built into, don't you know? That's why it's no surprise that more than 85% of the Fortune 500 use the ServiceNow AI platform.
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--:-- Noel King: While other platforms duct tape tools together, ServiceNow seamlessly unifies people, data, workflows, and AI, connecting every corner of your business. And with AI agents working together autonomously, anyone in any department can focus on the work that matters most.
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--:-- Noel King: I've never met an AI agent. Learn how ServiceNow puts AI to work for people at servicenow.com.
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--:-- Noel King: Support for this show comes from Strawberry.me. Be honest. Are you happy with your job? Or are you stuck in one you've outgrown? Or never wanted in the first place?
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--:-- Noel King: Sure, you can probably list the reasons for staying. But are they actually just excuses for not leaving? Let a career coach from Strawberry.me help you get unstuck. Discover the benefits of having a dedicated career coach in your corner. Go to strawberry.me slash unstuck to claim a special offer.
--:-- [Sound effects: A brief pause]
--:-- Noel King: What do you think today explained this? I don't know. I'm Noelle King. Special Counsel Robert Herr was tasked with answering this question. Should President Biden be charged for taking classified materials from the White House?
--:-- Christian Paz: Hers report runs 300 pages and his recommendation was no, don't charge the president. The reason is right there on page six. And that is what has caused so many problems for Joe Biden.
--:-- Noel King: Christian Paz is covering the 2024 election for Vox. What we were hearing first was this theoretical reason for why the special counsel wouldn't charge Biden with a crime, because he didn't think that he'd be able to make the case convincingly to a jury that there was willful intent behind that because Biden would be able to portray himself as an elderly man with a bad memory.
--:-- Christian Paz: In the report, Herb, who is a Republican, makes several critical observations about Biden's memory, saying it appears to have significant limitations. The report includes one instance where Biden was interviewed and was not able to remember when he was vice president, another when Biden was unable to recall when his son Bo died.
--:-- Noel King: And then you have that come out. The White House realizes it has to respond. President Biden goes out in the evening to make a press statement where he forcefully pushes back at the special counsel's allegations.
--:-- Joe Biden: I'm well-meaning and I'm an elderly man and I know what the hell I'm doing. I've been president and I put this country back on its feet. I don't need his recommendation.
--:-- Noel King: How bad is your memory, and can you continue as president?
--:-- Joe Biden: My memory is so bad I can let you speak.
--:-- [Sound effects: A brief pause]
--:-- Noel King: And then trips up once he opens up the conversation for questions from the press. He mixes up the president of Mexico with the president of Egypt.
--:-- Joe Biden: Initially, the president of Mexico, Sisi, did not want to open up the gate to allow humanitarian material to get in. I talked to him.
--:-- Christian Paz: And this all kind of contributes to that day's perception of a president who seemed overwhelmed, not at 100 percent capacity, and kind of builds on some of the stories we'd heard earlier in the week of the president speaking to donors or at private campaign events, where he mentioned presidents and leaders of foreign countries who are no longer alive and talked about having had conversations with them in the past few years when they were not around.
--:-- Noel King: During a recent campaign stop, Biden referenced a meeting he had with Mitterrand from Germany after being elected.
--:-- Christian Paz: One small problem, actually a couple small problems. Mitterrand was the French president and he died in 1996.
--:-- Noel King: Hey, Christian, why do you think this special counsel report was such a moment for so many voters? I mean, these stories about Joe Biden's memory, his mental acuity, they've been around for a while now, like years. And yet this felt like something different. This felt like maybe a step too far.
--:-- Christian Paz: I think it's a combination of it being both that somebody finally said it very clearly. That this is something that was observed, right? And then there's also the other factor that it's very reminiscent of what happened in 2016 with Hillary Clinton and her email scandal and FBI Director James Comey and that investigation.
--:-- Noel King: If we remember in 2016, the email scandal had been following Hillary Clinton around for most of the campaign. We're getting a look at the emails that reportedly triggered that FBI investigation into Hillary Clinton's personal email servers. And whether there was classified information in those emails and it was mishandled during her time as secretary of state.
--:-- Christian Paz: And it wasn't until the FBI and the Justice Department said they were going to actually investigate that issue, whether there was breaking of the law in the way that Hillary Clinton had handled official government business, that the press found an actual substantive reason to push the campaign more seriously on that, to ask those questions, to report on it.
--:-- Noel King: You were the official in charge. Did you wipe the server? What, like with a cloth or something?
--:-- Hillary Clinton: I don't know. You know how it works digitally.
--:-- Christian Paz: Did you try to wipe the whole server? I don't know how it works digitally at all.
--:-- Noel King: The email issue contributed to this bigger idea that the Democratic candidate just wasn't as authentic or wasn't being as forthright as she could be. And it confirmed a lot of the suspicions that voters had.
--:-- Christian Paz: So when it was covered in the news it just confirmed some of those underlying concerns that they had. And it mirrors a little bit of what we seeing in 2024 which is instead of this idea of whether or not you trust Joe Biden to be authentic it whether you think that Joe Biden is too old.
--:-- Noel King: And so I draw this parallel to 2016 because it was in July of that year that James Comey and the FBI finished their investigation. Although there is evidence of potential violations of the statutes regarding the handling of classified information, our judgment is that no reasonable prosecutor would bring such a case.
--:-- Christian Paz: But then you come to October of that year, the October surprise, and it's the FBI saying that they're going to reopen this investigation. The FBI now says it will review emails that appear to be pertinent to its investigation into the Hillary Clinton email scandal.
--:-- Noel King: This comes just 11 days before Election Day. And now the trustworthiness issue comes back.
--:-- Christian Paz: Obviously, this October surprise hasn't happened here in 2024, but it's definitely something that people are thinking about. It's definitely something that the Biden campaign is probably drafting up some kind of plan should something happen.
--:-- Noel King: But it's not hard to imagine that a president as old as President Biden could have some kind of health issue come up between now and the election.
--:-- Donald Trump: Donald Trump, candidate Trump, is also an elderly man with a poor memory. He cannot seem to remember who Nancy Pelosi is.
--:-- Noel King: By the way, they never report the crowd on January 6th. You know, Nikki Haley, Nikki Haley, Nikki Haley.
--:-- Donald Trump: You know, they do.
--:-- Noel King: He is at times forgotten where he is, like what city he's in, what state he's in.
--:-- Donald Trump: Very big hello to a place where we've done very well. Sioux Falls. Thank you very much, Sioux Falls. So Sioux City, let me ask you, how many people come? How many people come from Sioux City? How many people?
--:-- Noel King: Democrats are really bothered by Biden's memory. Are Republican voters really bothered by Donald Trump's memory? They're not.
--:-- Christian Paz: And it's interesting to see how. They're not really talking about him in terms of being too old. And I feel like part of it, when you look at some of the polling, it's he's also associated with terms that have to do with strength.
--:-- Noel King: And a lot of that builds from the persona that he's always had. He's always been boisterous, bombastic. He's never been one to really care for minutiae or details.
--:-- Christian Paz: And so it may be easier for some Republican primary voters and members of the Republican base to look past it or not even consider the age question with Donald Trump because it's all kind of priced into his persona and into how he speaks in public and presents himself.
--:-- Noel King: He already, I mean, people who remember him being president, he already often did not make sense some of the time Trump. It was like hard to follow. It's like, wait, what is he saying?
--:-- Christian Paz: So the issue that I hear you laying out here is that Democrats don't want to vote for Biden because of his poor memory. Republicans don't care. They're like, this is just who Trump is.
--:-- Noel King: And therefore, even though both of these men seem to be suffering from the same thing, only one of them is going to struggle among their base to convince people.
--:-- Christian Paz: You can still vote for me. I'm OK.
--:-- Noel King: That's absolutely true. I think it's interesting to see that part of the reason for this is because the Republican coalition is not as fractured as the Democratic coalition is.
--:-- Christian Paz: The big divide among the Republican Party right now is, are you with Trump or against Trump? And it's not really a 50-50 question, it's like a 80-20 question. Like the side that is anti-Trump is much smaller.
--:-- Noel King: On the Democratic side, there are just so many more reasons for fractures to emerge. Whether it's the president not being progressive enough, not being moderate enough. Whether it's the age question, whether it's pining for a different generation of leadership.
--:-- Christian Paz: And so when you break it down like that, it makes sense that the age question would be a bigger factor on the Democratic side because there are already more reasons to be skeptical of Biden.
--:-- Noel King: Now, right after the Her Report, that special counsel's report, was released, ABC News and Ipsos conducted a poll. 86 percent of Americans they polled say Joe Biden is too old to be president. 59 percent say both candidates are too old to be president.
--:-- Christian Paz: But it's clear why the Republican Party is sticking with Trump. The voters want him.
--:-- Noel King: If you've wondered why Democrats have to stick with Joe Biden, well, have we got a story for you.
--:-- [Sound effects: A brief pause]
--:-- Noel King: Support for Today Explained comes from Chime. Nobody likes fees and complicated banking, says Chime. And Chime gets that, says Chime.
--:-- Christian Paz: Chime is a financial technology company that says they understand that every dollar counts. So when you set up direct deposit through Chime, they say you get access to fee-free features, such as free overdraft coverage, getting paid up to two days early with direct deposit, so much more.
--:-- Noel King: Chime says with qualifying direct deposits, you can be eligible for free overdraft up to $200 on debit card purchases and cash withdrawals.
--:-- Christian Paz: Plus, they say you don't need to worry about monthly fees or maintenance fees.
--:-- Noel King: You can work on your financial goals through Chime today. You can open an account in two minutes at Chime.com slash explained.
--:-- Christian Paz: That's Chime.com slash explained. Chime feels like progress.
--:-- Noel King: Chime is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services and debit card provided by the Bancor Bank N.A. or Stride Bank N.A. Members FDIC.
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--:-- Noel King: It's your one-stop shop for fall's latest trends and must-haves, curated by their experts. Add a statement shoe to your collection, like the calf-hair loafers from Steve Madden.
--:-- Christian Paz: Or tap into your romantic side with flowy dresses from CeCe and sheer pieces from INC.
--:-- Noel King: You can even throw in some textural layers for contrast like a faux fur bomber jacket from Karl Lagerfeld Paris
--:-- Christian Paz: Whether your old favorite sweater or coat is on its last threads or you just craving a new vibe to switch things up Macy has got you covered this season Find the perfect layering pieces for you by exploring the Macy's Fall Fashion Style Guide.
--:-- Noel King: Shop in-store or online at Macy's.com.
--:-- Christian Paz: Support for the show today comes from Life Kit, the podcast from NPR. What's in your life kit?
--:-- Noel King: I'm asking. They didn't ask that.
--:-- Christian Paz: Every day you have to make choices that might shape the direction of your life, but you can't flip to the back of the book to find an answer key.
--:-- Noel King: Instead, you can listen to the Life Kit podcast from NPR.
--:-- Christian Paz: Life Kit offers real stories about common issues like relationships, finances, parenting, and your career.
--:-- Noel King: If you're looking to move with more intention or just need thoughtful guidance on living better, Life Kit delivers strategies to help you make meaningful, sustainable change from fitness routines to mental resilience navigating personal goals to tackling burnout each episode is full of relevant insights and clear takeaways about things we all could use a little help with life kit wants to help you approach your own life with confidence and clarity and walk away with a game plan.
--:-- Noel King: You can go listen to the show life kit it's a podcast from n p r 2020, 2020, four.
--:-- Noel King: Is it too late to replace Joe Biden? Ask the headlines and everyone at my hair salon and Uber drivers and probably many people in your life, too.
--:-- Christian Paz: And here is Vox's Christian pause with answers. Essentially, it is too late. And there are two big, broad reasons why.
--:-- Noel King: The first one has to do with literal practical reasons why it's too late. The nomination process is well underway.
--:-- Christian Paz: And to win the nomination, a candidate needs to win the support of a majority of delegates that are available to win 1,969 of the 3,936 delegates that are available.
--:-- Noel King: Up until now, there's been about 91 delegates that have been assigned based off of how folks have voted in South Carolina.
--:-- Christian Paz: And President Biden is one step closer to securing his party's nomination after winning the South Carolina primary on Saturday.
--:-- Noel King: And in Nevada. He will claim the state's 36 pledges to delegates.
--:-- Christian Paz: Both places where Joe Biden won about 90 percent or more of the vote.
--:-- Noel King: And so that's why I say that it's a little too late in the practical sense, because up until now, there isn't anyone who's registered on the ballot in those primary states other than Joe Biden and in some places, Dean Phillips, and in some places, Marianne Williamson.
--:-- Christian Paz: But it seems like Joe Biden is on track to win more than the majority, right?
--:-- Noel King: And going through to March, past Super Tuesday and a bunch of the other big states that are having their primaries in March, it doesn't look like there's anyone other than Joe Biden who is a serious candidate on those ballots.
--:-- Christian Paz: And so it's too late to register to get on the ballot in those states.
--:-- Noel King: And if you look, I think specifically there are 44 states where the deadline has already passed to have that registration happen.
--:-- Christian Paz: So there isn't anyone who can jump in at this point, get on the ballot and compete with Joe Biden through that traditional nominating process.
--:-- Noel King: Why didn't any brave Democrats who were aware a year ago that Joe Biden had problems with his memory, why didn't any of them say, I want a primary, put me on the ballot, I want a shot here?
--:-- Christian Paz: That speaks a little bit to some of the political reasons why it's too late also, is because it's already historically difficult to challenge an incumbent for the nomination of their party.
--:-- Noel King: Every time that's happened in recent memory, it's gone poorly for that party by the end of the election.
--:-- Christian Paz: Carter and Kennedy shook hands, but Carter's team never forgave Kennedy for weakening their candidate in the battle against Ronald Reagan.
--:-- Noel King: After the loss to Reagan, the Democratic Party vowed never to self-destruct like that again.
--:-- Christian Paz: But the other reason for it being difficult is because the president is the incumbent, and that gives him the advantage of having selected the folks who run the Democratic Party.
--:-- Noel King: And so it would mean that you would have to go against not just the president and the party apparatus that's there to support the president.
--:-- Christian Paz: It would also mean that you'd need to rally your own base of support. You'd need to raise so much money.
--:-- Noel King: And then you'd need to actually build a campaign operation out there.
--:-- Christian Paz: And that's not easy to do without the support of a party, without the support of big party donors.
--:-- Noel King: And even when you look at the Republican side, you had a contested election there also, right, with Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, etc.
--:-- Christian Paz: And they all slowly fell out of the race. But they tried. They tried. They tried.
--:-- Noel King: It's like the Democrats have learned nothing about unprecedented times, which everyone says we're living in unprecedented times.
--:-- Christian Paz: We've always done it this way, so we're always going to do it this way.
--:-- Noel King: I don't know.
--:-- Christian Paz: It does make you wonder, right?
--:-- Noel King: I think another big reason is maybe there's just some political instinct that's different here, where the folks that you would look at to be those challengers, governors like Gavin Newsom of California.
--:-- Christian Paz: But it's an interesting fact that GDP growth in California last year outpaced all red states in America. In fact, the fastest...
--:-- Noel King: Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan. This president has delivered, and that's why you see so many of my colleagues and me getting ready to help him win re-election.
--:-- Christian Paz: Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania. He's a native of Pennsylvania. For a long time, he was our third senator. And as president, he's really delivered to the Commonwealth.
--:-- Noel King: They're all loyal Biden Democrats, is the other thing here. There is no incentive for them to go against Joe Biden and for them to just incur a bunch of scorn from the party and from the base.
--:-- Christian Paz: It's also interesting to see that when you poll the Democratic Party, when you poll Democratic voters, Biden is still the top option, even if people are dissatisfied with him.
--:-- Noel King: And if they don't want him to be the nominee and they're asked, who would you rather have? People don't know who they would want.
--:-- Christian Paz: So even if you were to go with, theoretically, one of these other governors or senators, none of them have independently enough support to actually build an operation from.
--:-- Noel King: And then on top of that there all the theoretical polling that being done also to see hypothetically if Gretchen Whitmer or Gavin Newsom were to run against Donald Trump how would things go
--:-- Christian Paz: It turns out that Joe Biden still does the best. A new national poll shows Joe Biden beating Donald Trump in a hypothetical general election matchup. Biden leading Trump by six points, 50 percent to 44 percent among registered voters.
--:-- Noel King: The New York Times columnist Ross Douthat wrote over the weekend and others, others have said the same, that Joe Biden should stay in the race until the convention.
--:-- Christian Paz: He kind of has to, the way you've laid it out. And then Joe Biden should bow out of the race.
--:-- Noel King: And the idea is that would allow someone else to step in and be like, OK, I'm the person now who's going to run the Democrats to the end zone.
--:-- Christian Paz: Could that work? I guess. But that kind of has to happen in a fantasy world that we are not in right now.
--:-- Noel King: I think we're forgetting that Joe Biden has said he wants to run for a second term.
--:-- Christian Paz: He hasn't given any indication that he's dropping out or that he wants to drop out.
--:-- Noel King: He has the entire Democratic Party apparatus working toward that.
--:-- Christian Paz: And in the primaries we've had so far, it looks like voters are willing to support him.
--:-- Noel King: And so it doesn't seem like that's actually something that might play out.
--:-- Christian Paz: Can you talk us through when Democrats meet and they do a little fantasizing of their own about, you know, Joe Biden says, the time has come for me to step aside.
--:-- Noel King: And the Democrats have to go looking for someone else.
--:-- Christian Paz: Can you talk to me about who some of these folks might be?
--:-- Noel King: The names that have been coming up have either been folks who've shown that they're very progressive and consistently progressive.
--:-- Christian Paz: So in my mind, that is the lane occupied by Gavin Newsom in California.
--:-- Noel King: As governor, he's been the leader of the biggest Democratic state.
--:-- Christian Paz: He's handily beat back recall efforts and won re-election.
--:-- Noel King: And he spent a lot of the last year essentially campaigning for Biden, being a surrogate that's willing to go up against Ron DeSantis, go on Fox News.
--:-- Christian Paz: I will take Joe Biden at 100 versus Ron DeSantis any day of the week.
--:-- Noel King: Go to the Republican debate and be in the spin room to defend Biden's record.
--:-- Christian Paz: And it's no secret that he kind of aspires to the presidency at some point.
--:-- Noel King: But for now, I think he's made a calculation that it makes more sense to play the role of loyal foot soldier and loyal, you know, frontline defender of Biden than to challenge Biden.
--:-- Christian Paz: Then you have the kind of candidate that's cooked up in a lab, which is popular governor of a important swing state who has won many close or won a few close elections and has been able to govern popularly.
--:-- Noel King: Popularly.
--:-- Christian Paz: And that is the lane that's occupied by the governors of Michigan and Pennsylvania, Gretchen Whitmer and Josh Shapiro.
--:-- Noel King: And they're both really popular in their states.
--:-- Christian Paz: They've won really tight races.
--:-- Noel King: Gretchen Whitmer led the Democratic Party in Michigan to not only win and hold the governor's mansion, but also to win a bunch of other statewide races and flip control of the legislature, which is a pretty big accomplishment.
--:-- Christian Paz: A momentous night for Michigan
--:-- Noel King: And then you have kind of a realm of candidates who have either run before or who could be future options because they've done a good job at their assignments right now.
--:-- Christian Paz: And that is the Pete Buttigieg category of folks who maybe they're not as ideological, but they understand how government works.
--:-- Noel King: And then there's Gina Raimondo, the current U.S. Secretary of Commerce and the former governor of Rhode Island.
--:-- Christian Paz: I think our economic priorities are clear. Ensuring that the United States builds the talent, technologies, and manufacturing capabilities necessary to lead the global economy.
--:-- Noel King: And then you have the other realm of like Joe Manchin, a senator from West Virginia who's not running for re-election, who's floated the idea of maybe running as a third party.
--:-- Christian Paz: Let's speculate about a really bad situation that I want to be clear we're not wishing on anyone.
--:-- Noel King: Let's say Joe Biden really is incapacitated by a stroke, for example, or a bad fall, which at his age are not unheard of.
--:-- Christian Paz: Is there anything in the convention rules that could require a new candidate or allow a new candidate if there was a very serious Biden health event?
--:-- Noel King: But there are contingencies. It's never happened before, right, in the modern era for us to have to go through this.
--:-- Christian Paz: But the default would be that the party would end up supporting Kamala Harris.
--:-- Noel King: You think you just fell out of a coconut tree? You exist in the context of all in which you live and what came before you.
--:-- Christian Paz: The funny thing about Kamala Harris is that she is also frequently incoherent.
--:-- Noel King: And I'm saying that in a fun way because she's young.
--:-- Christian Paz: What do we know about Kamala Harris's numbers if she's put in hypothetical polling against Trump?
--:-- Noel King: You're saying none of these other Democratic names would have a shot at beating him.
--:-- Christian Paz: Does polling suggest that Harris is somehow different?
--:-- Noel King: The polling actually does show that Harris does the least worse.
--:-- Christian Paz: One of my sources has done a lot of analysis of head-to-head polls of these different candidate options versus Trump.
--:-- Noel King: And it turns out that, yes, Kamala Harris does underperform Joe Biden a bit, but she does better than Gavin Newsom, for example, would do.
--:-- Christian Paz: And so we're doing all this thinking about, yeah, there's this generic Democratic candidate who everyone wants, who people would be more enthusiastic about than Joe Biden.
--:-- Noel King: But when you actually look through to see who that would be, who the options that we have are, if you're a Democrat, it's not that much better than going with Kamala Harris.
--:-- [Theme music fades in]
--:-- Noel King: Today's episode was produced by Miles Bryan and Jesse Alejandro Cottrell.
--:-- Christian Paz: It was edited by Matthew Collette and fact-checked by Laura Bullard and Avishay Artsy.
--:-- Noel King: Patrick Boyd is our engineer.
--:-- Christian Paz: And I'm Noelle King. It's Today Explained. Thank you.
