--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Welcome to Today Explained. I'm Sean Rameswaram.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Twenty, twenty explained. Twenty, twenty explained. If you've been paying attention to politics for the past 30 years or so, James Carville needs no introduction. If you haven't been alive for the past 30 years or so, this introduction's for you. Look, James, in all due respect, is a political hack who said very terrible things when he was working for Clinton against Barack Obama. I think he said some of the same things.
--:-- James Carville: That's exactly who the fuck I am. I'm a political hack. I'm not an ideologue. I am not a purist. I am a political hack.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Carville hacked for Bill Clinton during his first long-shot presidential campaign in the early 90s. He gained a reputation for being a shrewd and salty political strategist. People nicknamed him the Ragin' Cajun. And he's basically been on TV ever since, from hosting Crossfire to being on Fox News and getting his own Bill Hader impression on SNL.
--:-- James Carville: So anyway, we started dating. Wait a second. You dated Newt Gagin? I dated many men in the name of the Democratic Party, so I'm unashamed.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Okay. One night, Newt and I go paddle boating on the Potomac River. Now, it doesn't matter why, but I'm friends with some alligators.
--:-- James Carville: James Carville, as a 70-something-year-old white man, I'd love to get your opinion on the three 70-something-year-old white men who are vying for the presidency right now.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Look, the only thing that people care about is beating Trump. And the way to do that is what we're getting ready to do, and that's to nominate Vice President Biden. And the reason that he's still standing is people made an evaluation at a late point. He's the best person to beat Donald Trump. That's what's driving this whole thing.
--:-- James Carville: So were you waiting for him to announce back in this time last year? Were you relieved when he announced that he'd be running?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You know, I'll move for Michael Bennett. I mean, I thought we'd, you know, but so he didn't do very well. Doesn't matter. This is where we are. It's a better place than we thought we were going to be.
--:-- James Carville: I think you mentioned that to our colleague here at Vox, Sean Illing, when you spoke to him a few weeks ago. At that point, Biden hadn't done very well in Iowa. I think, you know, they were still counting the votes. And you said to Sean that you were scared to death at the time.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: How come?
--:-- James Carville: Bernie looked like he was going to get, he might get to Milwaukee with 1,800 delegates and we'd have a, you know, brouhaha rift and they would be in the streets claiming it was all stolen from them and God knows what.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: That is not going to happen now. And so I am less afraid.
--:-- James Carville: There's a lot to be afraid of, but I'm not afraid of Bernie Sanders getting to Milwaukee with a plurality of the delegates.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It seems like what you were calling for in your conversation with our colleague Sean Illing was for the Democratic Party to get its act together and rally around a moderate candidate who could win the election.
--:-- James Carville: This moderate, this is word that people throw out. In other words, if you're not Bernie Sanders, you're part of the moderate wing of the Democratic Party. It's a bullshit word. I don't consider myself a moderate. I consider myself a liberal.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But it doesn't matter because it's just become the convenient way to describe anybody that is not Bernie Sanders.
--:-- James Carville: And the Democratic Party has taken what would historically be some pretty liberal positions going into this race.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Do you think there's something to be said that Bernie Sanders being such progressive could have excited a younger base and perhaps that way taken that?
--:-- James Carville: No. No. That's the equivalent of climate denial or creationism. You're not going to change the turnout model. It's never been done, and it's not going to be done.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So you weren't impressed by Bernie's win in California?
--:-- James Carville: No. I mean, Bernie can't. He has no relationship with the most important constituency in a Democratic Party, African Americans.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The newest and most exciting demographic in a Democratic Party are these college-educated white voters, particularly women.
--:-- James Carville: He has no relationship with them. They came out and voted against him in droves. He got a third of the California Democrats.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I'm sorry, I'm just not that impressed.
--:-- James Carville: OK, well, let's talk about Joe for a minute here.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: A smart man once said it's the economy, stupid. The economy has been in pretty good shape until these COVID related dips recently
--:-- James Carville: How does Biden do against Donald Trump in a race where Trump surely plans on bragging about how well he done with the economy
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So he inherits a country that has 2% growth. He sticks a trillion dollars worth of stimulus, gives a green light for every polluter to go. And what do we get? Drum roll, please. 2.1.
--:-- James Carville: Trump got 46.1 in 2016. The Republicans got 44.8 in 2018. His approval on 538 is 43.4, whatever it is, doesn't change.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: There's 55% of the country that wants to not be for this guy. That's a big number.
--:-- James Carville: We should do everything we can to maximize that number.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Political parties don't exist to make arguments. They exist to win elections. Without power, there is nothing.
--:-- James Carville: It's all a bunch of people sitting around talking to each other in cities.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I take your point, but Trump, of course, lost the popular vote in 2016 and still won the Electoral College.
--:-- James Carville: So in the states that matter here, do you think people are feeling like the economy is good and thus maybe we should just vote for the incumbent? Or do you think they're hurting and thus Joe Biden has a strong argument?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: All of the evidence I see is people do not want Trump back.
--:-- James Carville: But we got to run a strong persuasion campaign in Pennsylvania, in Michigan, in Wisconsin, in Florida.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We can't go with this urban strategy that we are the growing party.
--:-- James Carville: 18% of the country elects 52 senators. Take that urban strategy.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The party has to have a majoritarian instinct.
--:-- James Carville: We've got to be skilled enough to excite our most important voters, African-Americans to get our new exciting demographic out, these college-educated women, and also to cut into the margins in the more rural and small-town parts of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, places like that.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And I think we can do that.
--:-- James Carville: What do you think the strongest argument Vice President Biden can make in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Wisconsin might be?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I want to get Trump out of there.
--:-- James Carville: You're not going to live like this anymore. You're not going to be waking up to tweets and people that are trying to inspire young people are not going have this for example.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We're going to put competent people to run the government.
--:-- James Carville: But I mean, Democrats are hoping that Biden will convince people who voted for Donald Trump in 2016 to switch their vote back to the Democratic Party.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Is the argument that we got to get Trump out of there as strong as an argument that might appeal more to things that affect their lives personally?
--:-- James Carville: What you do is you talk about things that affect their lives personally.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You think they think that Trump's done something about prescription drug prices?
--:-- James Carville: You think they think that his tax cut went to anybody but the richest people in the country?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You think that people are not so stupid that they know that Donald Trump went to Davos and while he was in Davos said he was going to cut Medicare after he was elected again?
--:-- James Carville: One last question. Go ahead.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Entitlements ever be on your plate?
--:-- James Carville: At some point they will be. We have tremendous growth. We're going to have tremendous growth this next year. It'll be toward the end of the year. And at the right time, we will take a look at that.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: That's actually the easiest of all things, if you look.
--:-- James Carville: and probably ruined morale in the diplomatic corps. Tried to holler out to CDC and NIH. I don't know.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I don't know. That don't seem very good to me.
--:-- James Carville: We've added a trillion dollars in debt in a functioning economy, which I don't think is a very good idea at all.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We've abandoned any environmental regulation.
--:-- James Carville: The government has become an assistance center for fossil fuel industry.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We've pitted one American against another American.
--:-- James Carville: We've told citizens of the United States, that they should go back to the country they came for.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It's the most repulsive thing anybody can say about anything in this country.
--:-- James Carville: I think it's just a violation of everything.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Nobody needs to go back anywhere.
--:-- James Carville: You hear?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: What do you think it says that he's got near record approval ratings with the Republican base?
--:-- James Carville: That it's a personality cult.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The Republican voter very much wants Donald Trump where he is.
--:-- James Carville: And the way to deal with this is defeat Republican politicians and then get power and win the Senate back.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And, you know, look at where you got to win Senate seats. You got to win in North Carolina. You got two in Georgia. You got to hold Alabama.
--:-- James Carville: You got a shot in Texas. You should win Arizona. You should win Colorado.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You now got a shot in Montana. Believe it or not, you got a shot in Kansas.
--:-- James Carville: You're probably ahead in Maine.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You got to hold Michigan.
--:-- James Carville: That's the reality of politics.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: This is an opportunity that you just don't see very often in politics.
--:-- James Carville: I mean, we have a chance to come in. If we're smart, we got a chance to run the table here in November.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: In your dream scenario, which is clearly a Biden nomination, whom does he choose as his VP?
--:-- James Carville: I'm kind of a big fan of Gretchen Whitmer.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: She's the governor of Michigan.
--:-- James Carville: She gave the rebuttal to the State of the Union, and she talks about things that matter to people.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: In my own state, our neighbors in Wisconsin and Ohio, Pennsylvania and all over the country, Wages have stagnated while CEO pay has skyrocketed.
--:-- James Carville: So when the president says the economy is strong, my question is, strong for whom?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Strong for the wealthy who are reaping rewards from tax cuts they don't need?
--:-- James Carville: She's very focused on issues that matter, and that's what it's about.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Who fights for working, hardworking Americans?
--:-- James Carville: Democrats do.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You know we had an actual real life experiment in 2018 where you had I think it was 50 times that a leftist candidate challenged a liberal and 47 times in the primary to liberal run
--:-- James Carville: We had the biggest margin in the history of half-year elections. We had the highest turnout since women were granted the right to vote.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And you know what we did? We just talked about fundamental issues.
--:-- James Carville: and then it went poorly until James Clyburn got up and just knocked the whole Democratic Party back into reality.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And for that, we owe him a great debt.
--:-- James Carville: We don't need to make this country great, and this country is great.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: That's right. That's not what our challenge is.
--:-- James Carville: Our challenge is making the greatness of this country accessible and affordable for all.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: If it's health care, is it accessible? Is it affordable?
--:-- James Carville: Education, is it accessible? Is it affordable? Housing.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And nobody with whom I've ever worked in public life is any more committed to that motto, that pledge that I have to my constituents than Joe Biden.
--:-- James Carville: I'm a little surprised how hopeful you are about Vice President Biden.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Well, what should I be other than, I mean, Biden, you know, who knows?
--:-- James Carville: He has a history of saying some things that are kind of strange.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We choose science over fiction. We choose truth over facts.
--:-- James Carville: Poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We hold these truths to be self-evident. All men and women created by, go, you know the thing.
--:-- James Carville: I wish they'd just scheduled him for two events a day.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You know, people, they're going to vote for him as long as you don't talk them out of it.
--:-- James Carville: If you agree with me, go to Joe30330 and help me in this fight.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So it's his to lose.
--:-- James Carville: You really think it's his to lose?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I do.
--:-- James Carville: Wow, we're going to call this episode a hopeful conversation with James Carville.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Give me the counter argument.
--:-- James Carville: OK, well, we'll talk a little bit more about the other guy after the break.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Understand that every dollar counts.
--:-- James Carville: So when you set up direct deposit through Chime, they say you get access to fee-free features, such as free overdraft coverage, getting paid up to two days early with direct deposit, so much more.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Chime says with qualifying direct deposits, you can be eligible for free overdraft, up to $200 on debit card purchases and cash withdrawals.
--:-- James Carville: Plus, they say you don't need to worry about monthly fees or maintenance fees.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You can work on your financial goals through Chime today.
--:-- James Carville: You can open an account in two minutes at Chime.com slash explained.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: That's chime.com slash explained.
--:-- James Carville: Chime feels like progress.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Chime is a financial technology company, not a bank.
--:-- James Carville: Banking services and debit card provided by the bank or bank NA or Stride Bank NA.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Members FDIC.
--:-- James Carville: Spot me eligibility requirements and overdraft limits apply.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Timing depends on submission of payment file.
--:-- James Carville: Fees apply at out-of-network ATMs.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Bank ranking and number of ATMs according to U.S. News and World Report 2023.
--:-- James Carville: Chime checking account required.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Avoiding your unfinished home projects because you're not sure where to start?
--:-- James Carville: Thumbtack knows homes, so you don't have to.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Don't know the difference between matte paint finish and satin?
--:-- James Carville: Or what that clunking sound from your dryer is?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: With Thumbtack, you don't have to be a home pro.
--:-- James Carville: You just have to hire one.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You can hire top-rated pros, see price estimates, and read reviews all on the app.
--:-- James Carville: Download today.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The counter-argument is the Electoral College.
--:-- James Carville: It's the most persuasive digital strategy in the history of Facebook.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It's through an impeachment scandal and through any number of lies and disinformation, Donald Trump, his support hasn't wavered an iota with his base.
--:-- James Carville: Right. It's at 43.4.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You know what? If he gets 43.4, we're going to do very well. We're going to do very, very, very well.
--:-- James Carville: I'm working on a project focusing on 77 counties in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And we can do a lot better there.
--:-- James Carville: There's some daylight for Democrats.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You know, most of us became, of my generation, became Democrats because we didn't pay anybody.
--:-- James Carville: I mean, race was the reason I became a Democrat.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But I'm a rural white.
--:-- James Carville: And for somehow or another, a lot of the urbanists, I don't mean the people who live in urban areas.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I live in an urban area.
--:-- James Carville: I mean, that kind of thought process that all rural people are stupid.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: That's just not true.
--:-- James Carville: Some of us went to college. Some didn't. Some of us are married. Some of us are not. Some go to church. Some don't.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Different sexual orientations.
--:-- James Carville: There's all kinds of things.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Rural people are just like everybody else.
--:-- James Carville: You can't lump them all together.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And we have lost large parts of rural America.
--:-- James Carville: And they have outside political problem because of the Senate and Electoral College
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So we have to go in and compete
--:-- James Carville: Yeah Why shouldn we
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: What do you think the Republican Party looks like after Donald Trump
--:-- James Carville: That's a good question. And it's a topic of much discussion.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I think that Trumpism outlives Trump.
--:-- James Carville: I think he has hit a responsive nerve with 40% of the country.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And the question is, after he leaves, who's going to be the heir to Trumpism.
--:-- James Carville: And my guess is going to be Pompeo, but I don't know that.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Or one of his kids.
--:-- James Carville: Yeah.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I don't know who's dumber, the kid, to the daddy, but he's close.
--:-- James Carville: I just wonder, you know, he clearly hit on something that is very persuasive and compelling to, as you said, you know, 30, 40 percent of the country.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And the party has so coalesced around it.
--:-- James Carville: You got very few people who dare oppose him.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You know, Mitt Romney is one.
--:-- James Carville: That just seems like it will outlive him.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: If Biden wins.
--:-- James Carville: Yeah, I kind of agree with you.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: If Biden wins and the Democrats don't take the Senate, then you'll just have this lingering Trumpism there.
--:-- James Carville: If Biden wins and the Democrats do take the Senate, then I really wonder what the Republicans' argument is in the next few years.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The problem is it can't get off the hamster wheel because Trump, you know, he used to talk around the topic.
--:-- James Carville: Trump spoke directly to it. And by the topic, I mean.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yeah, yeah, yeah. You know, we did this episode last week about Brad Parscale, who's the head of Trump's re-election campaign, and kind of talked about some of the dirty tricks that he and his cohorts have been using on Facebook.
--:-- James Carville: And one of the questions I asked McKay Coppins from The Atlantic, who reported this piece about Brad, was what are the Democrats going to do if this is the way Donald Trump plans on getting re-elected by what Steve Bannon called flooding the zone with shit?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yeah, that's a very good question.
--:-- James Carville: Do you think the Democrats got to get their hands dirty to win this election online?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Well, first of all, I'm 75.
--:-- James Carville: I'm technologically beyond incompetent.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: All right. I had a first in my life. I was talking on a cell phone and I was looking for my cell phone in my back pocket.
--:-- James Carville: Aren't these all arguments against electing 70-year-old men to be president?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Look, I said the only organization in the world that is and has been run by 80 of our hosts is the Roman Catholic Church.
--:-- James Carville: This is what we got.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yeah, I guess.
--:-- James Carville: You know, it's, you know, they say in the Marine Corps, wishing one hand and crapping the other. See which one fills up the pastors.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Okay?
--:-- James Carville: What do you think Democrats should be doing here?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: If Donald Trump's going to run a dirty digital campaign, what do Democrats do?
--:-- James Carville: What does Vice President Biden do?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Who knows?
--:-- James Carville: What does Bernie Sanders do?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It is undoubtedly true that we're way behind.
--:-- James Carville: And I hope that somebody on the Biden team, when they get, there are people that are good at this that are Democrats, a lot of technology people.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And whatever it entails, we have to have a crash course in this and get up and running because they've invested a lot of money in this and they got tons and tons of data.
--:-- James Carville: They can follow people by cell phones and stuff.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I mean, what some of the people are telling me is amazing.
--:-- James Carville: Much of it, I suspect, is illegal.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I think we ought to be very, very fight back, fight back hard, use whatever we can, just follow the law.
--:-- James Carville: Do you think it's a Michelle Obama situation where when they go low, we go high?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Or do you think the Democrats go low too?
--:-- James Carville: I would have the whole body as a target, low and high.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I would probably use my foot somewhere where the top of the legs meet.
--:-- James Carville: You would insert your foot somewhere.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yeah, you could guess where I think we should insert it.
--:-- James Carville: Is it fair to say that you're married to a Republican?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I don't discuss my wife.
--:-- James Carville: I think she changed her registration to Libertarian.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I don't know if she's changing back to a Republican, but I'll let her speak for herself.
--:-- James Carville: I asked the question not to bring your wife into this, but to suggest that, I don't know, it feels like your marriage suggests that we aren't gone so far that people who disagree with each other can't, you know, share a conversation, share a household, share a life.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But sometimes the past three years, it's really felt that way, that we just can't, we've forgotten how to talk to each other.
--:-- James Carville: Do you think there's a chance here to repair that?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I do.
--:-- James Carville: I don't think people want to live like this.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I really don't.
--:-- James Carville: Why do you think you're seeing this record turnout?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I mean, you understand 2018 produced the highest turnout since women were granted the right to vote.
--:-- James Carville: And we lived in a world where we just assumed that declining voter interest and participation was the future of the country.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: All right, Mr. Carville, that's all we got.
--:-- James Carville: Thanks so much for making time for us.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I really appreciate it.
--:-- James Carville: It was fun.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It was a thorough and complete interview, and I enjoyed doing it.
--:-- James Carville: Thank you.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We will be in touch.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We will try to call you on November 3rd if Donald Trump wins the reelection.
--:-- James Carville: I'm sure you will.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I'm sure you got a recording of this, and you'll play it back in my face, but that's all right.
--:-- James Carville: That won't be the first time I've been wrong.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I'm Sean Ramos from this has been a hopeful conversation with James Carville.
--:-- James Carville: You seem really happy.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Of course I'm happy Seth, it's almost summertime.
--:-- James Carville: Pretty soon I'll be back in Louisiana drinking sweet tea on the porch with my high school buddy Alligator Joe.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Now, why do you call him Alligator Joe?
--:-- James Carville: Because he's an alligator, Seth.
