--:-- Sean Rameswaram: My guess is you're going to brush your teeth later. You might want to try brushing with Quip. You can get an electric Quip toothbrush for just 25 bones, and if you go to getquip.com slash explained right now, you'll get your first refill pack free with a Quip electric toothbrush. G-E-T-Q-U-I-P dot com slash explained.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Remember when candidate Donald Trump used to talk a lot of trash about China? They're making it impossible for our businesses, our companies to compete. They think we're run by a bunch of idiots. And what's going on with China is unbelievable. That was then. This is now. China's great, and Xi is a great gentleman. He's now president for life. President Trump. No, he's great. Hey, look, he was able to do that. I think it's great. Maybe we'll have to give that a shot someday. He's the most powerful president in 100 years. You know, a person in the 100 years in China. He's great. That's a recording CNN got a hold of. President Trump speaking at a private lunch at Mar-a-Lago on Saturday. Hopefully, he was joking. But over in China, Xi Jinping is not. Today, the Chinese parliament begins its big annual conference. The main event is a vote on term limits. Xi Jinping requested they go away, and everyone expects they'll be gone by Sunday. So what does it mean that the president of one-fifth of all the human beings on planet Earth just decided he's never stepping down?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So it's not every day you elect a forever president, but China did in 2013 and didn't even know it until about a week ago. China's Communist Party preparing constitutional changes that would eliminate presidential term limits and allow President Xi to basically stay in power indefinitely. It sets Xi up to be the most powerful leader of China since Mao Zedong. If you want to take after Chairman Mao, you have to start early. Xi Jinping is what's known as a princeling. He is the closest thing to Chinese royalty, which means that his father was one of the founding leaders of China.
--:-- Jiayang Fan: His father was what's called an old party elder. He was head of the Chinese Communist Party's propaganda department. When he was purged under Mao, he was purged several times. He was then rehabilitated and rose again to prominent Chinese office. But the experience, I think, must have taught Xi, his son, how volatile Chinese politics is.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Xi Jinping subsequently took much more low-key route to power when his fellow princelings were enjoying the privilege of living in Beijing. He, at age 29, went down to the outer provinces, to Hebei, and became a minor party secretary, really kept his head down. At one point, donated his Sudan, you know, a rare privilege at the time for anyone to be having a car. And the fact that he had the political acumen not to use it himself, but to give it to party elders, gives you a sense of the kind of strategic politician that he was and is.
--:-- Carl Minzner: And at that point, he gradually rose. He had a real knack for courting the right allies and removing political obstacles out of his way. And that's how he gradually became party leader of progressively larger cities and ultimately became the vice president of the country and then became the president. And now, president for life. But actually Xi Jinping is about to be much more than just president for life. Xi Jinping is the leader of China. He holds three different posts. One is the president of China, which is a state position. It's kind of like, it's more of a symbolic post, head of state. The real power lies in the other two, which is as the general secretary of the Communist Party and as the head of the military. All that power makes Xi Jinping more emperor than president.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And Carl says Xi's triple crown, state, party, military, is why his move to abolish term limits is such a big deal. Five years ago, there was quite the logical expectation that what would happen would be that Xi Jinping would step down in 2022, 2023. With the removal of these term limits in the Constitution, that also sets up the likelihood, the extremely strong likelihood, that going forward Xi Jinping is likely to serve in all three roles indefinitely into the future, which of course would be a significant reversal from recent practice since the beginning of China's reform era.
--:-- Carl Minzner: So this is less like Bloomberg giving himself an extra term and more like Putin pretending to go away and then coming back, huh? That's exactly. Well, but notice that you don't even have to come back. You just stay on. Right. But in this case, it's even better for Xi Jinping. Right. I mean, if you think about it, Putin even felt the obligation after his two terms were up to take the step of having Medvedev come in as president for five years. But this is a situation where you're just changing the constitution to make it possible for you to stay on in the presidency.
--:-- Carl Minzner: So Putin's the obvious example to compare Xi Jinping too. But how does the situation differ other than the fact that he didn't even step away? I mean, how were they monopolizing power in the country similarly or differently? You have to remember where the PRC came from. I mean, for the first three decades of the People's Republic of China, from 1949 to 1978, we were in the Maoist era. OK. Power was highly concentrated in a single individual who cultivated a cult of personality. You know, the bureaucracy was roiled daily, weekly by internal struggles and purges. High officials would fall in and out of favor with Mao on a regular basis.
--:-- Carl Minzner: The beginning of the reform era back in 1978 and early 1980s was an effort by Chinese leaders who were scarred by that experience to seek to put the Chinese political system on a more stable footing. Sure, it still would be a one-party system, but it was going to be collective leadership instead of one-man rule. It was going to be bureaucratic norms rather than just whatever Mao happened to wake up and say in the morning.
--:-- Carl Minzner: And I think one of the real risks that China faces, which is, you know, an important thing to pay attention to, is how much of some of those earlier problems and earlier instability might start to reemerge as China sort of begins to walk back towards the path of a more, you know, personalized authoritarian system.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So they put in these term limits after Mao, no more dictators. How is Xi Jinping the first to try and abolish the term limits? Surely he wasn't the first leader since Mao to want to stick around. Right. Well, I mean, that is an interesting question. And I think in comparison to his immediate predecessor, I mean, he's definitely wielded power in a stronger way. The question of how he managed to pull that off is a really interesting one.
--:-- Carl Minzner: And, you know, if I was trying to provide my own answer to that, I would say it was a step-by-step progression of taking out his rivals one by one. I don't know if, you know, the audience might remember, but immediately after coming into office, there was a spectacular scandal in which Bo Xilai, one of these other competitors for top power, ended up falling out of favor. Huge scandal involving the death of a British citizen. Tonight we go to China where there's a new development in the international murder case that has shaken the highest levels of the Communist Party.
--:-- Carl Minzner: Arguably in which his wife was implicated. And she sort of used that as the first effort to take out a political rival. The wife of Chinese politician Bo Shillai was charged with the murder of British businessman Neil Haywood. Bo had been a prominent Communist Party official expected to rise to national leadership until his dismissal in March derailed his political career. and threw the leadership in the country into turmoil.
--:-- Carl Minzner: After that, he then began to go after the security czar. Subsequent years, you started to see certain generals fall. So I think it was a very savvy step-by-step campaign where you begin to sort of take out one person and then mobilize support within the bureaucracy for going after that person. And then you say, well, then the next person has to go is this person. And at the end of a couple of years, lo and behold, you've created an atmosphere which once was collective leadership. Now you actually have managed to cow a lot of folks and impose your own stamp on what was a pretty you know divided and unruly party bureaucracy.
--:-- Carl Minzner: And it's pretty impressive just you know from a tactical political sense how somebody could have pulled that off. Certainly five years ago, I would have said, well, you know, China's sort of a party oligarchy in which it's hard for any one person to, you know, manage to stand out. And he's managed to do that.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: How about internationally? How does this look to China's neighbors? Well, I mean, you know, we're living in a world in which there's essentially an authoritarian revival worldwide. So, you know, maybe in the 90s, this would have caught a lot more people's attention. But if you look at Turkey, if you look at the United States, if you look at the Philippines, you see some of these trends happening in a range of other countries as well. But China seems like the biggest deal.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I mean, President Trump has this sort of seesaw love-hate thing going on, but he loves to frame China as our arch nemesis when it's convenient. Did some sort of Chinese threat just get bigger? You know, I'm not sure that the domestic shifts in China are directly linked towards the, you know, what it means for U.S. power. I think that's a little bit too far.
--:-- Carl Minzner: The thing I really worry about in this scenario is really what it means for the people of China itself. Because, you know, when we think about the reform era, which is now, you know, in my opinion, ending this unique period of rapid economic growth, relative political openness, ideological openness to the outside world and partially institutionalized political norms. This was an era where China itself was attempting to emerge from the chaos of the of the reform of the Maoist era.
--:-- Carl Minzner: And if you really sort of think of it in that historical perspective, you know, some of the risks of what it means, the people who bear the risks of this are really the Chinese people themselves.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: This is less like Bloomberg giving himself an extra term and more like Putin pretending to go away and then coming back, huh? That's exactly. Well, but notice that you don't even have to come back. You just stay on. Right. But in this case, it's even better for Xi Jinping. Right. I mean, if you think about it, Putin even felt the obligation after his two terms were up to take the step of having Medvedev come in as president for five years. But this is a situation where you're just changing the constitution to make it possible for you to stay on in the presidency.
--:-- Carl Minzner: So Putin's the obvious example to compare Xi Jinping too. But how does the situation differ other than the fact that he didn't even step away? I mean, how were they monopolizing power in the country similarly or differently? You have to remember where the PRC came from. I mean, for the first three decades of the People's Republic of China, from 1949 to 1978, we were in the Maoist era. OK. Power was highly concentrated in a single individual who cultivated a cult of personality. You know, the bureaucracy was roiled daily, weekly by internal struggles and purges. High officials would fall in and out of favor with Mao on a regular basis.
--:-- Carl Minzner: The beginning of the reform era back in 1978 and early 1980s was an effort by Chinese leaders who were scarred by that experience to seek to put the Chinese political system on a more stable footing. Sure, it still would be a one-party system, but it was going to be collective leadership instead of one-man rule. It was going to be bureaucratic norms rather than just whatever Mao happened to wake up and say in the morning.
--:-- Carl Minzner: And I think one of the real risks that China faces, which is, you know, an important thing to pay attention to, is how much of some of those earlier problems and earlier instability might start to reemerge as China sort of begins to walk back towards the path of a more, you know, personalized authoritarian system.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So they put in these term limits after Mao, no more dictators. How is Xi Jinping the first to try and abolish the term limits? Surely he wasn't the first leader since Mao to want to stick around. Right. Well, I mean, that is an interesting question. And I think in comparison to his immediate predecessor, I mean, he's definitely wielded power in a stronger way. The question of how he managed to pull that off is a really interesting one.
--:-- Carl Minzner: And, you know, if I was trying to provide my own answer to that, I would say it was a step-by-step progression of taking out his rivals one by one. I don't know if, you know, the audience might remember, but immediately after coming into office, there was a spectacular scandal in which Bo Xilai, one of these other competitors for top power, ended up falling out of favor. Huge scandal involving the death of a British citizen. Tonight we go to China where there's a new development in the international murder case that has shaken the highest levels of the Communist Party.
--:-- Carl Minzner: Arguably in which his wife was implicated. And she sort of used that as the first effort to take out a political rival. The wife of Chinese politician Bo Shillai was charged with the murder of British businessman Neil Haywood. Bo had been a prominent Communist Party official expected to rise to national leadership until his dismissal in March derailed his political career. and threw the leadership in the country into turmoil.
--:-- Carl Minzner: After that, he then began to go after the security czar. Subsequent years, you started to see certain generals fall. So I think it was a very savvy step-by-step campaign where you begin to sort of take out one person and then mobilize support within the bureaucracy for going after that person. And then you say, well, then the next person has to go is this person. And at the end of a couple of years, lo and behold, you've created an atmosphere which once was collective leadership. Now you actually have managed to cow a lot of folks and impose your own stamp on what was a pretty you know divided and unruly party bureaucracy.
--:-- Carl Minzner: And it's pretty impressive just you know from a tactical political sense how somebody could have pulled that off. Certainly five years ago, I would have said, well, you know, China's sort of a party oligarchy in which it's hard for any one person to, you know, manage to stand out. And he's managed to do that.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: How about internationally? How does this look to China's neighbors? Well, I mean, you know, we're living in a world in which there's essentially an authoritarian revival worldwide. So, you know, maybe in the 90s, this would have caught a lot more people's attention. But if you look at Turkey, if you look at the United States, if you look at the Philippines, you see some of these trends happening in a range of other countries as well. But China seems like the biggest deal.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I mean, President Trump has this sort of seesaw love-hate thing going on, but he loves to frame China as our arch nemesis when it's convenient. Did some sort of Chinese threat just get bigger? You know, I'm not sure that the domestic shifts in China are directly linked towards the, you know, what it means for U.S. power. I think that's a little bit too far.
--:-- Carl Minzner: The thing I really worry about in this scenario is really what it means for the people of China itself. Because, you know, when we think about the reform era, which is now, you know, in my opinion, ending this unique period of rapid economic growth, relative political openness, ideological openness to the outside world and partially institutionalized political norms. This was an era where China itself was attempting to emerge from the chaos of the of the reform of the Maoist era.
--:-- Carl Minzner: And if you really sort of think of it in that historical perspective, you know, some of the risks of what it means, the people who bear the risks of this are really the Chinese people themselves.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Jiayang Fan writes about China for The New Yorker. I'm Sean Rameswaram. This is Today Explained. Our executive producer is Irene Noguchi. Bridget McCarthy, Noam Hassenfeld, and Luke Vanderplug produce the show. Afim Shapiro is our engineer, and the unlimited Breakmaster Cylinder makes music for us. Today Explained is produced in association with Stitcher, and we're part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: 请在推特上关注解释今天。 Follow us on Twitter at today underscore explained.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Quip has combined dentistry and design to make a new electric toothbrush. It's got all that vibration in a slim brush that costs less than traditional electric ones. Quip starts at just $25, and if you go to getquip.com slash explained right now, you'll get your first refill pack free with a Quip electric toothbrush. G-E-T-Q-U-I-P dot com slash explained.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: One last thing. We'd like to know more about you, but not in a creepy way. So please, go to podsurvey.com slash explained and take a quick anonymous survey that will help us get to know you a little better. Once you've completed the survey, you can enter to win $100 Amazon gift card. Fancy. Again, that's podsurvey.com slash explained. It helps us find advertisers. Advertisers pay for our show. You get the show for free. What a time to be alive.
