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--:-- Noel King: The U.S. State Department is telling Americans to get out of Ukraine. It's a big week there. The country's Independence Day is on Wednesday, but Ukraine has canceled all celebrations. It's also the six-month anniversary of the start of the war.
--:-- Andrew Roth: Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky issued a warning in his weekly address that this week Russia might try to do something particularly nasty, particularly cruel. Pressure has been building after a mysterious targeted murder on a highway last weekend. A 29-year-old woman killed in a car bombing, not in Ukraine, where all the violence of this war has occurred, but outside of Moscow, in a nice area even.
--:-- Noel King: A 29-year-old woman killed in a car bombing, not in Ukraine, where all the violence of this war has occurred, but outside of Moscow, in a nice area even. She wasn't a household name in Russia yet, but the murder of Daria Dugana and the revenge that many people believe will accompany it could signal the opening of a new and scarier front in Russia's war.
--:-- Noel King: Next on Today Explained. Support for Today Explained comes from the FIFA World Cup, of all things. The FIFA World Cup 26 is coming to North America next summer. It is the ultimate celebration of sports and culture. You can get closer to the beautiful game with a hospitality package, closer to the action, the best seats, the best suites, closer to match day and that world-class food and that world-class entertainment, closer to the experience of a lifetime. Book a hospitality package at fifaworldcup.com slash hospitality.
--:-- Noel King: Support for this show comes from Macy's. Layering is an art form. All it takes is a bit of intention, style, and of course, the perfect cold weather staples. So find the perfect look for you with the help of Macy's Fall Fashion Guide, your one-stop shop for fall's latest trends and must-haves, curated by their experts. From leather to denim to cozy knits, find everything you need to piece together your new fall look. Explore the Macy's Fall Guide for yourself and shop in-store or online at Macy's.com.
--:-- Noel King: It's Today Explained. I'm Noelle King. Andrew Roth is Moscow correspondent for The Guardian. He's been following the apparent assassination of Daria Dugana closely. Andrew, tell us what you know.
--:-- Andrew Roth: So Darya Dugana was leaving a festival on Saturday evening. And as she drove away from this kind of big sort of right-wing political festival, she was driving on her way back to Moscow when all of a sudden her car exploded. It was a sort of massive explosion that tore through the car, and she was killed at the scene of the explosion. Russian authorities say she was likely murdered, a bomb placed under her seat. The question is why.
--:-- Noel King: So Darya Dugana is, first of all, a political commentator. This is a person who would go on television, and she was pretty conservative in what she said. And in Russia right now, that means that she was fairly pro-war, meaning the war against Ukraine.
--:-- Andrew Roth: Russian state television's tribute to Darya Dugana, killed in a car bomb on Saturday night. A signal to us all, the presenter says. She died for her views. She died for the idea of the Russian world. She'd been very outspoken about her opposition of the government in Kiev and her support, basically, for the Kremlin fighting in Ukraine.
--:-- Noel King: Pressure has been building after a mysterious targeted murder on a highway last weekend. A 29-year-old woman killed in a car bombing, not in Ukraine, where all the violence of this war has occurred, but outside of Moscow, in a nice area even.
--:-- Andrew Roth: She wasn't a household name in Russia yet, but the murder of Daria Dugana and the revenge that many people believe will accompany it could signal the opening of a new and scarier front in Russia's war.
--:-- Noel King: Next on Today Explained.
--:-- Noel King: Support for Today Explained comes from Adio. What is Adio? Adio is an AI-native customer relationship management system built specifically for the next era of companies. They say it's extremely powerful, adapts to your unique data structures and scales with any business model.
--:-- Andrew Roth: According to Adio, Adio takes less than a minute to set up. And within seconds, you will have your email and calendars synced. You'll see all your relationships in a fully fledged platform, they say, all enriched with that actionable data.
--:-- Noel King: And they say you can build AI-powered automations and use its research agent to tackle some of your most complex processes to seize so that you can focus on what matters, building your company. You can join industry leaders such as Flatfile, Replicate, Modal, and so much more. You can go to atio.com slash todayexplained to get 15% off your first year.
--:-- Noel King: We all have moments where we could have done better, like cutting your own hair. Oh, yikes. Or forgetting sunscreen, so now you look like a tomato. Ouch. Could have done better. Same goes for where you invest. Level up and invest smarter with Schwab. Get market insights, education, and human help when you need it. Learn more at schwab.com.
--:-- Noel King: It's today explained. At a memorial service for his daughter, Alexandra Dugan said she would want Russians to fight. She died for Russia on the front line, he says. And that front line is here.
--:-- Andrew Roth: So Alexander Dugin and his daughter, they left this festival, which is called Tradizia, or Tradition, maybe about five minutes apart. And so he would have been driving down the same highway, also going back toward Moscow, when the bomb ripped through her car and when she was killed.
--:-- Noel King: So what we know is that after that took place, that Dugan turned around, somehow had heard about what had happened, and went back to the site where the car had blown up, where it had gone on fire and kind of crashed into a fence close by.
--:-- Andrew Roth: And there's some video that was shared, or it's leaked, of him kind of standing there holding his head, looking at this car where his daughter had just been driving, that had just blown up. It's fairly raw.
--:-- Noel King: The images have been shared a lot, especially on the Internet, on social media, because tensions are very wrought. This is a person who was very strongly disliked in Ukraine for the things that he had talked about, you know, violence being necessary.
--:-- Andrew Roth: And there wasn't much sympathy for him, I think. And that's kind of driving a reaction in Russia among the elites who knew him as well, who have been very strongly demanding a kind of backlash or response to that.
--:-- Noel King: And he came out with a statement that I would say was fairly hard line pro-war and kind of exactly what we would expect Dugan to say this is something that was put out in written form but he said that you know it wouldn't be enough to demand retribution for her death what we really need is victory he means victory in the war over Ukraine and that he gave up his daughter essentially as part of his contribution to the war that's taking place.
--:-- Andrew Roth: So very little in terms of changing any kind of political view or any view on what had happened. I mean, this was a very kind of hard line, stay-of-course statement for a person who just lost his daughter in this attack.
--:-- Noel King: Who is Russia saying is responsible for her death?
--:-- Andrew Roth: So the Russians have come out and said that they think Ukraine is behind the attack. It's not much of a surprise. that was kind of where this was all going. They claimed that a Ukrainian woman traveled with her, say, 12-year-old daughter in a Mini Cooper across the border into Russia, moved into the apartment where Daria Dugina lived, surveilled her, went to the festival, planted the bomb, you know, and then after the attack, that they took the same Mini Cooper, switched the license plates, and drove out of the country and are now hiding in Estonia
--:-- Noel King: So that version is a mouthful and it naturally has a lot of people you know asking questions You know, they have put out video of her, this woman crossing the border, coming into Russia, and then leaving Russia and apparently entering a house that they say is the same one that Dugin lived in.
--:-- Andrew Roth: But, you know, it's pretty far from any kind of concrete proof that she was involved in the attack. Ukraine has denied the attack, and in general Ukraine denies cross-border attacks against Russia and says that it only speaks about attacks that basically take place in Ukraine and fighting that takes place in Ukraine.
--:-- Noel King: But it has been a very strong denial in this case. And everybody who supposedly knows this woman or is involved has also so far denied that she has any kind of connection to the attack.
--:-- Andrew Roth: So in this case, the FSB, which is the Russian security services, We understand why they're accusing Ukraine of this attack, but it is a little bit difficult to take their accusations at face value. You know, we obviously need more evidence to understand what happened, and it kind of remains unclear.
--:-- Noel King: There are a lot of other theories about what could have taken place in the attack. One that the Ukrainians have discussed is the idea that it's what some call a false flag, the idea of a conspiracy where the bomb was planted in order to, you know, generate a reason to either escalate the war or launch a political crackdown at home, right?
--:-- Andrew Roth: So it's the idea that Russia itself, you know, launched the attack. And then there are a bunch of other ideas too about what could have happened. But first of all, it's difficult to really find evidence for any of them. And second of all, some of the other theories probably aren't going to influence what happens going forward.
--:-- Noel King: To me, the key is that Russia came out with these accusations, they went public with them, and to a certain degree that indicates that Russia is going to launch some kind of response to what's happened.
--:-- Andrew Roth: In Ukraine tonight, fears of retaliation in a country already on high alert, as Ukraine prepares to mark six months of war on Wednesday, coinciding with its day of independence. President Zelenskyy warning Russia may be planning something particularly cruel to ruin the occasion.
--:-- Noel King: Ukraine's second largest city will impose a round-the-clock curfew on a bittersweet Independence Day.
--:-- Andrew Roth: OK, and then there's reporting that a former member of Russia's parliament, a man who is on the outs with Vladimir Putin, is claiming that a Russian resistance exists and that resistance has taken responsibility.
--:-- Noel King: Can you tell me about that claim and whether you are convinced at all by it?
--:-- Andrew Roth: It's a pretty extraordinary claim. It would be an incredible moment and incredibly politically important if there was a kind of armed resistance inside of Russia right now that was physically now taking steps to try to attack the government, stop the war.
--:-- Noel King: I think a lot of people were very surprised to see the claims that were being made because there just hasn't been much evidence so far of a kind of real armed resistance inside of Russia.
--:-- Andrew Roth: So, you know, in many ways, all we can do is take the remarks at face value. But it seems like officials in Kiev and officials in Russia both have kind of rejected that claim so far.
--:-- Noel King: Do you think this could be a turning point in how the war is fought in any sense?
--:-- Andrew Roth: You know, what the Russians who are speaking out most loudly about this attack are saying is that they want to see retribution and that they want to see Russia really start to target government buildings in Kiev, government officials. They want to see targeted killings. And while those have to a certain degree taken place so far, we still see missile attacks against Ukrainian cities.
--:-- Noel King: It's clear that it could probably be stepped up and that we could see something that looks much more like urban fighting, both in Ukrainian cities, but also in Russia as well.
--:-- Andrew Roth: This is something that could become a danger for places like Moscow, St. Petersburg, where the Russian elite are. And it would be the first time when for a lot of Russians, the war really starts to come home.
--:-- Noel King: In Moscow, one thing that's so surprising here is the fact that you could feel like there's really no war taking place at all. People go on with their daily lives. You see some symbols that are related to the war, mostly pro-war symbols, like big Zs on public transport.
--:-- Andrew Roth: But to be honest, otherwise, you don't really see much of much of the war at all here. And if there start to be bombings, shootings, and things like that, I think that it really becomes unavoidable and impossible to ignore.
--:-- Noel King: One place where we've seen that is Crimea, where somehow, you know, people were still going on vacation, as though nothing was taking place, as though there was no war taking place in Ukraine, just dozens of miles away.
--:-- Andrew Roth: And it was only when ammunition dumps started blowing up there and that, you know, people started getting a little bit spooked and realizing, oh, you know, wait a minute, maybe we shouldn't be on vacation here right now.
--:-- Noel King: So I think that's a real goal for the Ukrainian side, if this was them behind it. And I do think that that's a huge concern for Russia as well.
--:-- Andrew Roth: So months into Russia's invasion of Ukraine, this war could now be coming to Russia. Exactly. And not just to Russia, but to ordinary Russians, you know, and to people who live in some of the country's biggest cities.
--:-- Noel King: I think that's the fear and also the whole concern around the bombing is not just about who it was and this individual family, but also about what it represents. Fear, terror, the Russians would argue. That's what could worry the Kremlin the most.
--:-- Andrew Roth: I think that's a huge concern for Russia as well.
--:-- Noel King: Andrew Roth, he's the Moscow correspondent for The Guardian. Today's show was produced by Avishai Artsy with an assist from Halima Shah on a Sunday, no less. It was fact-checked by Laura Bullard with help from Tori Dominguez. It was engineered by Paul Robert Mounsey. Amina El-Sadi edited the show. I'm Noelle King. It's Today Explained. Thank you.
