--:-- Noel King: Welcome to Today Explained. I'm Noel King.
--:-- Noel King: Way back in 1982, Syria's dictator Hafez al-Assad brutally crushed an uprising in the city of Hama. He sealed the city, cut off food and electricity, and then his army started shelling, and then he sent in troops. This was long before Twitter, so while thousands of people died, it took time for that massacre to be fully understood. There were only a few journalists there. But it was a huge death toll, and the smoke hung over the city. It was a very frightening place. I did see it. I guess I'm sorry I saw it in many ways.
--:-- Noel King: As dictators do, Hafez handed Syria over to his son, Bashar al-Assad. Like his dad, he crushes dissent with violence. But earlier today, Syrian rebels entered Hama. They say they've taken that city back from al-Assad. In the past week, this rebel group has changed the course of a 13-year civil war. And the story of how they did that is coming up on Today Explained.
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--:-- Noel King: This is Today Explained. Jihad Yaziji is the editor-in-chief of the Syria Report. It's an online publication. For 23 years, he's written about Syria, including, of course, the country's civil war, in which rebels are fighting President Bashar al-Assad.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: The conflict in Syria began in 2011, initially as a popular uprising against the regime. They are calling it the Aleppo volcano. In Syria's second-largest city, protesters are determined to bring down the regime. They took to the streets on Thursday, defying heavily armed security forces.
--:-- Noel King: As dictators fell from power following the fervor of the 2011 Arab Spring, peaceful protesters in Syria also demanded a change in leadership. The initial demands of the population were for, to sum it up pretty in short, was really to demand political liberalization, more political freedoms. That was met actually with very heavy violence from the regime.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: Syrian activists say more than 1,400 people had been killed since President Bashar al-Assad launched a crackdown on protesters four months ago. Since the very start, President Assad has had one objective, staying in power. And he's been prepared to do pretty much anything to achieve it.
--:-- Noel King: When you shoot, you aim. And when you shoot, when you aim, you aim at terrorists in order to protect civilians. Again, if you're talking about casualty, that's war. You cannot have war without casualty.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: The opposition took up arms and And it has been evolving as a civil conflict for many, many years now. So basically what is happening now, what we are seeing in the past few weeks, is that one segment of the opposition, which controlled so far a very small part of Syria, and which happens also to have an ideology which is quite radical, very conservative from an Islamic conservative ideology, the organization controlling that part of Syria went on the attack and took over large parts of northern Syria, including the country's second-largest city, and managed within a few days to double the size of the area under their control.
--:-- Noel King: I want you to walk me through what that looked like.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: So what we have seen actually is that group of rebel fighters. So that's not a formal army. Comprised of several thousands, probably maybe the low dozens of thousands, crossing front lines very rapidly with relatively light equipment, military equipment, and taking over areas controlled formally by the Syrian government.
--:-- Noel King: Everybody's assumption is that the initial attack aimed at gaining a few kilometers at enlarging a bit the area which is under their control but what happened is actually the defense of the regime of the government completely collapsed so within a day less than two days at least they reached the borders of Aleppo the second Syria's second-largest city and it was really unexpected that they would get there that quickly.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: But what was even more unexpected was that they would be able to take over the city with almost no defense, no fighting within a couple of days. This is the center of Aleppo, the second-largest city, which until Friday was one of the main strongholds of the Syrian army.
--:-- Noel King: As a symbol of its form, the statues of the governing Assad family are taken down by the rebels amid jubilation. Aleppo has been fought over before in the course of this war. This is not the first battle for Aleppo.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: It sounds like what you're saying though is this wasn't even really a battle. As these fighters came in the city just fell.
--:-- Noel King: You are absolutely right. In 2016 actually the government took over Aleppo from the opposition with the support of the Russian Air Force. That was almost exactly eight years ago in December 2016. So the regime has been controlling the whole of the city for the past eight years.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: What we have seen here now is no real battle at all, actually. As I said, within 48 hours, they had the control of the whole city. What seems to have happened is that the government, realizing that it was too weak, decided to withdraw its forces to fall back on the city, Hama, so that they can prepare a real defense.
--:-- Noel King: The decision was made to withdraw, to retreat very quickly, so that they could recoup and mount some form of more decent defense, which is currently happening now.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: All right, so this is a very big deal for Bashar al-Assad. This is humiliating. This is not only humiliating for him, but this is changing radically the map of the country and of what will happen in the future.
--:-- Noel King: The conviction was only a week ago that Bashar al-Assad had won the Syria war, that although he did not control the whole of the country, there was no chance of moving him out, and that we need to find some form of normalization with the regime.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: This whole discourse in the space of 24 hours, 48 hours collapsed entirely. So it's a major, major defeat for Bashar.
--:-- Noel King: Bashar is clearly the very big loser here. This group could have done this six months ago. They could have done this six months from now. Why did they do it last weekend? And why was it so successful?
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: The reason we have this now is a large part a consequence of the Israeli war on Gaza and on Lebanon. This has weakened tremendously the Iranians and the militias affiliated to them, Hezbollah in Lebanon and other militias.
--:-- Noel King: And that has created a void, if you want.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: Another dimension to take into account is that the Syrian government and regime has been impoverished, crumbling very gradually, very steadily over the past few years. Soldiers are paid very low salaries. There are no job opportunities. There is no investment by the government. There is a lot of corruption.
--:-- Noel King: And one of the reasons the soldiers did not fight is because they don't really have any motivation to fight for the regime.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: When this rebel group successfully took the city, what was the reaction in Syria? Supporters of Bashar al-Assad, which are today very few, are unhappy, of course, about what happened.
--:-- Noel King: Supporters of the opposition, which are more numerous, have a mixed reaction. Why? Because on the one hand, you are seeing these people, these soldiers, these armed rebels, when they entered Aleppo, opening up political prisons, freeing political prisoners, some of whom have been in prison without judgment for 10, 15, or 20 years.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: You can only be very happy about that. Also, because these attacks by rebels are going to help a lot of displaced people and refugees in Turkey return home, because a lot of them originally lived in the areas which were taken back in the past few days.
--:-- Noel King: They were expelled by Bashar al-Assad's forces and were not allowed to return back. So a lot of people are very happy about that.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: At the same time, the main rebel organization, HTS, that took over Aleppo, its ideology is very conservative. So it forces women to wear veils, it bans alcohol, and so on and so forth.
--:-- Noel King: Now, what has happened in Aleppo so far in the past few days is relatively reassuring in the sense that they have not tried to impose yet their very strict rules.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: But there is anxiety among Syrians about what could potentially happen. And beyond whose sides you are on today, what is making people anxious is that we are seeing the return of large-scale battles in urban areas with large numbers of casualties.
--:-- Noel King: You have had a low-intensity conflict for quite a few years now. And what a lot of people fear is a return of these intense parts of the conflict.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: In Aleppo, as I said, there were no battles. There was no battle really. It was easy to take over. But in Hama, for example, you are seeing very heavy battles and that's really very worrying.
--:-- Noel King: The real danger here is that this civil war, which for a while was being fought at a low level, is now exploding again.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: Yes, exactly. That's a real risk.
--:-- Noel King: Coming up, Jihad comes back to tell us about the man who leads the rebels. He looks like Fidel Castro. He wants Bashar al-Assad's job. And he's trying to rebrand himself as a moderate.
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--:-- Noel King: Support for Today Explained comes from Built Rewards. These days, it seems like everybody has a rewards program. You swipe your card and you get one cent on the hundred dollars. But with your rent, frequently, you just pay month after month. You never get anything from it other than that roof over your head. Not anymore, says Built Rewards.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: Built Rewards says it lets you earn points on your rent. By paying rent through Built, they say you can earn flexible points that can be redeemed toward hundreds of hotels and airlines, perhaps a future rent payment, your next Lyft ride, and so much more.
--:-- Noel King: Your home isn't just where you sleep, it's your community. And Built wants you to go out and do things in the community. You can eat at your favorite local restaurants, then earn more points. You can get VIP treatment at certain fitness studios. You can enjoy exclusive experiences just for Built members every month.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: When you're ready to travel, they say Built points can be converted to miles or hotel points all around the world. You can earn points on rent and around your neighborhood wherever you call home by joining Bilt slash Explained. That's J-O-I-N-B-I-L-T dot com slash Explained.
--:-- Noel King: Support for the show today comes from LifeKit, the podcast from NPR. What's in your LifeKit? I'm asking. They didn't ask that. Every day you have to make choices that might shape the direction of your life, but you can't flip to the back of the book to find an answer key. Instead, you can listen to the Life Kit podcast from NPR.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: Life Kit offers real stories about common issues like relationships, finances, parenting, and your career. If you're looking to move with more intention or just need thoughtful guidance on living better, Life Kit delivers strategies to help you make meaningful, sustainable change.
--:-- Noel King: From fitness routines to mental resilience, navigating personal goals to tackling burnout, each episode is full of relevant insights and clear takeaways about things we all could use a little help with.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: LifeKit wants to help you approach your own life with confidence and clarity and walk away with a game plan you can implement right away.
--:-- Noel King: Enough from me. Go listen to the show, LifeKit. It's a podcast from NPR. You're listening to Today Explained.
--:-- Noel King: We're back with Jihad Iyazooji of the Syria Report. Jihad, tell us about the group that pulled off this stunning offensive in Syria. Who are they?
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: So the organization is called HTS, which stands for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or the Organization for the Liberation of the Levant. The Levant meaning Syria and Lebanon. Known by their initials HTS, they are made up of some 30 armed groups and at least 60,000 well-trained fighters.
--:-- Noel King: It has long been dominant in Idlib, part of the northwest that stayed under rebel control for the past few years.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: We have returned to Aleppo after 10 years. We have arrived and can finally see it, thank God.
--:-- Noel King: So HTS is actually the result of the merger of several organizations that fought against the Syrian regime. One of these organizations was actually an affiliate of Al-Qaeda.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: So it originates in Al-Qaeda. Now, gradually, HTS has sought to distance itself from Al-Qaeda to the extent that actually they have also fought Al-Qaeda and expelled Al-Qaeda from their area.
--:-- Noel King: And they have steadily tried to rebrand themselves as certainly a conservative Islamic organization, but not as a taqfiri or what we would call jihadist organization, such as Al-Qaeda and ISIS.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: An organization such as HTS has a very Islamist radical ideology which it wants to impose on the population it rules, it governs. But it has no ambition to convert non-Muslims or to export its model to other countries.
--:-- Noel King: ISIS or Al-Qaeda are transnational organizations. They don't only want to impose the Sharia, the Islamic rule, the Islamic law, on their population, but they want to export their model around the world.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: They want to convert non-Muslims to Islam, And they're ready to fight for that and to kill for that. That's a big difference.
--:-- Noel King: So ISIS and al-Qaeda are considered, our transnational organization, considered terrorist organizations.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: Now, that's just also to be more precise. HTS technically is considered by the U.S. as a terrorist organization because it was originally affiliated with al-Qaeda.
--:-- Noel King: The organization that launched this offensive over the weekend is a terrorist organization designated as such by the United States. We certainly do not support that organization in any way, shape or form.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: What it wants to do now is get delisted. What they have been trying to do is rebrand themselves, but also their whole ideology.
--:-- Noel King: I mean, when you read, listen to the official statements, they are all tending towards that, towards an organization, as I said, that wants only to rule the place it is in and that does not want to fight any other country.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: So they remain listed as a terrorist organization. But it is true that in practice, they say they don't want to fight anyone outside their national borders.
--:-- Noel King: Okay, so from the perspective of people who are not in the region, not in Syria, HTS is a less dangerous group.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: Who is the leader of HTS and what does he want?
--:-- Noel King: Yeah, so the nom de guerre, as we say, of the leader of HTS is Abu Muhammad al-Julani. He's a Muslim Sunni. He originates from southern Syria. He entered the ranks of Al-Qaeda, established HTS, and then decided to shift, if you want, his focus into a more nationalist agenda.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: Jolani is a quite impressive figure. The area he is ruling, he has been ruling, that northwestern part of Syria, he has been ruling for many years, is probably the best managed part of Syria.
--:-- Noel King: So Jolani is quite impressive in terms of what he has succeeded in doing.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: I do think that at the end of the day, he wants to rule the whole of Syria. And I think that this is why also he knows that if he wants to rule the whole of Syria, which has Christians, Shias, Jews, Kurds who are not Arabs, well, you have to compromise.
--:-- Noel King: And I think that why also that what explains the fact that he trying to open up and to rebrand himself to a more if you want mainstream Islamist organization.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: If he wants to rule the whole of Syria he should compromise. He is saying he will compromise.
--:-- Noel King: Do you believe that he's going to compromise? If he were able to take power, is this a guy who is going to be moderate?
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: Whether he compromises or not is going to depend a lot on the balance of power. At this stage, he's obliged to compromise and at the later stage he will be obliged in my opinion to compromise for the simple reason is that not only Syria is home to a large number of communities that are not Arab Sunnis as he is but also because Syria has a very strategic geographic location.
--:-- Noel King: I argue actually that currently a lot of regional players, not only the traditional supporters of the regime, but even countries in the Gulf, Jordan, and to some extent the Israelis, they may prefer Bashar al-Assad to stay, at least for a temporary period, than to allow Jolani to take over.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: Jolani, if he reads well the geopolitics of the region, he will understand that also from a geopolitical angle, he has to make compromises because otherwise he will have opposition either from the Israelis or from the Turks or from the Gulfies or from the Iraqis who are in majority Shia.
--:-- Noel King: So the geographic location, the internal composition of society should eventually force Jolani to compromise.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: He could think that he can take over power by sheer force, but it would be, in my opinion, very difficult for him to maintain his role over the country and stabilize it without compromising.
--:-- Noel King: All right. So this is a man who has said repeatedly that he is not a threat to the Western world. Julani, speaking to PBS in 2021, said, quote, "I'm not interested in what goes on in the United States or in France or in the UK. I'm interested in Syria."
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: His goal is to get rid of Bashar al-Assad. That is also what the United States wants, right?
--:-- Noel King: I'm not sure, no. I'm not sure that today the United States' goal is to get Bashar al-Assad out.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: The United States' stated goal is to get Bashar al-Assad out. Nothing has changed with respect to our policy. Assad is a brutal dictator with blood on his hands.
--:-- Noel King: Ultimately, what we want to see is a political process forward where the Syrian people get to determine who their leaders are.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: But the U.S. goal is to weaken Iran, to protect the borders of Israel, to prevent refugee flows, although it's not a direct threat to the U.S., but it can be to its allies, if you want a stable country.
--:-- Noel King: So, indeed, if you want to get Iran out and Bashar cannot distance himself from the Iranians, you would want Bashar out. But you don't want Bashar out in any case, in any situation, unless you have an alternative.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: What the U.S. wants is a guy in Damascus whom they can call and who is capable of giving orders to an army, to an armed group, so that when the U.S. says, I want this or I don't want that, they have a guy who can answer and can implement decisions, if you want.
--:-- Noel King: One of the weaknesses of the Syrian opposition at the very beginning of the uprising 13 years ago is that it didn't have such a leadership.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: The U.S. certainly what it wants is stability, safe border for Israel, weaker Iran. If this is done through Bashar, so Bashar will stay. If Bashar cannot help, so Bashar, I'm not saying the Americans have the capacity or the willingness to invest into kicking him or keeping him, but I'm just trying to answer the question of do they want him still in power or not.
--:-- Noel King: The official stated policy, given the massive crimes widely documented that Bashar al-Assad committed, it's very difficult for you, if you are a Western liberal country, to openly support him.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: But in practice, what they want is, you know, the least bad option if you want. So I'm not 100% sure that it is really the aim of the US to get Bashar out of power.
--:-- Noel King: Jihad, you've been covering this terrible war since it began, so 13 years. This week, there was a big change at a moment where it didn't seem like any change was coming. Are there positives here, do you think?
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: Yes, of course, there's something positive. There's something positive in the sense, as I said, that we have seen people freed from prisons.
--:-- Noel King: There's something positive because I think that some IDPs and refugees will be able to return home.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: Positive in the sense that Bashar is weaker and Bashar is an absolutely terrible individual that needs to be himself and his whole regime need to be weakened.
--:-- Noel King: Maybe one more positive thing is that there is renewed focus a bit on Syria. But this, of course, has a bad aspect and a positive one. It all depends on how it turns.
--:-- Jihad Yaziji: So no, I think there are positives. But of course, war and conflict, that's something you look forward to, obviously.
--:-- Noel King: Jihad Yaziji is editor-in-chief of The Syria Report. You can find them at syria-report.com.
--:-- Noel King: Peter Balanon-Rosen and Miles Bryan produced today's episode. Matthew Collette edited, Patrick Boyd and Rob Byers engineered. A nuke Duso fact-checked. I'm Noelle King. It's Today Explained.
