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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It doesn't take an astrophysicist to work out why Americans need a little extra help right now.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Four million confirmed coronavirus cases and counting.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The countries in various states have shut down. Kids are at home, and they may be for a while.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: If you have a job, you're lucky. If you don't, you're living in fear of not making rent or a mortgage payment.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It's all pretty obvious, and that's why the government stepped in to help several months ago and supplemented unemployment benefits.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But those benefits are set to expire at the end of this week, and Democrats and Republicans have a $2 trillion disagreement on what to do next.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Matthew Iglesias, you dig into these kinds of disagreements for Vox on the Weeds podcast.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Republicans unveiled their big coronavirus rescue package on Monday afternoon.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: It's called the HEALS Act. It's a great adventure in acronym formation. That's health, economic assistance, liability protection, and schools. Heels.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And what's in it?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: The most important thing to know is it's $1 trillion, which is smaller than the Democratic proposal.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And we've allocated that in a way that we think makes the most sense for the country at this particular time.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So it contains some of the same stuff as the Democrats do.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Another round of sort of checks that will go out to most households, which is similar to the Democratic proposal, a little bit less generous.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: They extend unemployment insurance, but they cut it from $600 a week to $200 a week.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And we want to have something which pays people about 70 percent wage replacement, which I think is a very fair level.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So it's not a fixed number. It's something that pays you a percentage of your wages that are lost.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: There's a lot of questions about how that's supposed to work.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: It contains this big liability protection provision.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: It was important enough. It made it into the acronym.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And the idea is to make it hard or impossible for someone to sue a business for saying they're responsible for you getting COVID-19.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: That's been a sort of important priority for Mitch McConnell.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: There have already been 3,500 lawsuits filed.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: The country cannot stand an epidemic of lawsuits on the heels of the pandemic.
--:-- Matthew Iglesas: We're already working our way through.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Then he's got some money for schools, some money for testing, a small sort of business loan program that's a little bit of an interesting idea, some extra money for the PPP business loan program.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Also a little bit of a grab bag of stuff.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Like there's $2 billion in there to renovate the FBI headquarters.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: What? Who is clamoring to renovate the FBI headquarters?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Well, so the FBI headquarters is across the street from the Trump Hotel.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Yeah.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And the FBI, it appeared at one point, wanted to move out of D.C. to a sort of suburban location that would be easier to have, like, scary security features around.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: President Trump didn't like that idea for whatever reason.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: He wanted to renovate the existing FBI facility, which I think is full of asbestos.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So that's why it's such a hideously expensive project.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Anyway, I mean, this is not that important, but Nancy Pelosi has been talking about it a lot.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: I think to her, it's a signpost of the level of seriousness with which Republicans are undertaking this, that there's no money to support general state and local government budgets in this plan.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: But there is money for a real estate project that's related to the president's hotel.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And is there money to protect people who might get evicted or who might fall behind on rent as a result of this ongoing crisis we're in?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Most households will get $1,200 more if you have more than one person in your household.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So that will help.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: I mean, there is financial assistance to people.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: The $200 a week of bonus unemployment insurance is quite a bit stingier than Democrats' proposal, but is quite a bit more generous than simply doing nothing, the situation we're facing this week.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So, you know, it's wrong to say they're not doing anything to help people.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: They're just doing less.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Let's talk about the other plan here.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: What are the Democrats calling their version?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So Democrats' acronym is the HEROES Act, Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Name for our heroes whose provisions are largely based on the four previous bipartisan bills we have passed.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Why do they all have to be acronyms now?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: When did that happen
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: This is a fascinating story
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: You know it wasn't the Patriot Act that did this
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: The letters stand for uniting and strengthening America by providing appropriate tools required to intercept and obstruct terrorism.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: No, it sort of predates Patriot Act.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: You know, we didn't do these stunt names on every bill until quite recently.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: But now, you know, people are working the back channels.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: They're brainstorming names for these things.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: It's considered, you know, if they do a new edition of how a bill becomes a law, there's going to have to be, that's like a whole step in the process.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: I think there's no better sign of our government largesse than the amount of time and effort that's being spent on these acronyms.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It's great stuff.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Particularly good when you can work in a term like omnibus, which I think doesn't mean anything to normal people, but is an important congressional procedure concept, which is that
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: This bill contains a lot of different provisions that cut across different appropriations fiefdoms.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So it is an omnibus bill and good for them.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: OK, well, let's talk about the omnibus.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: What's in the Democrats' plan?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: There's a lot of stuff in the Democrats' plan.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So the Democrats' plan is $3 trillion.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So triple the size.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So it's a lot of money.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And so they do a lot of stuff.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: How much of that money is dedicated to rebuilding the FBI headquarters in Washington, D.C.?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So none of it, I think, goes to that important purpose.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: But there's a few big buckets in the Democrats' bill.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: One is they are extending the $600 a week bonus unemployment insurance with no big modifications.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So that costs a lot of money.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: It's a lot of help.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: They are doing the $1,200 checks again, except they are changing it so that children will now count as a full person worth the entire $1,200 instead of $500.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So there's that pillar.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Then they have money for tests, money for virus research, vaccines, things like that.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: They also have a lot of money for states.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: They really want to avoid state and local government budget crises.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And that's a huge conceptual difference with the Republicans.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Then there's some money that's specifically earmarked for schools.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Democrats have, since passing this bill, they have sort of raised their ask on the school front.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And then they have some money for business loans in there.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: But I think the most important difference between these bills is $1 trillion versus $3 trillion.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And that's what's going to make negotiating hard.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Beyond the immense difference in how much each party wants to spend here, there's also sort of an interesting difference in each party's timeline.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: The Democrats passed their $3 trillion relief package back in May in the House, and Republicans are just presenting their plan this week with benefits set to expire on Friday.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Why did Republicans wait so long?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: This is extremely odd.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: The main thing is there is disagreement in Republican circles as to whether they should do anything.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: There's been a significant block of Republican members of Congress who say, we've spent enough money on this.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Like, we're done. No more spending.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And that's not what most Republicans think, but a lot of them think that.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Then Mitch McConnell has wanted to craft a proposal that he can get all Republicans to support.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Not because a proposal like that will pass, because he knows he has a deal with Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats, but he wants to strengthen his hand in negotiations by having a unified caucus behind him.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And he's been dealing with some very recalcitrant, backbench right-wing members who just haven't wanted to agree to anything.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And it's really pushed the timeline to a kind of extreme position.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: They're going to have 10 business days to figure out a plan because on August 7th, that's when Senate goes into recess and a deal needs to be done.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: All this time that the Republicans have spent is not on working out what's going to happen.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: It's been on working out what's their initial bid in the negotiation.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So it's a huge slippage.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: The reason Democrats acted fast is that they were hoping to then spend two months bargaining with Republicans.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Republicans have been spending all this time bargaining with themselves.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So now we're like at the end of the beginning, but still have no clear road forward toward legislation that passes.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: After the break, what took Republicans so long, and how this might reach a resolution without, you know, throwing a bunch of Americans into the streets?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I'm Sean Ramos for them.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It's Today Explained.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Matthew, before the break, we were talking about how Democrats brought a plan to the table back in May.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: The Republicans offered one up on Monday, a few days before these unemployment benefits are set to expire.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: What were the Republicans busy disagreeing about?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Well, so the unemployment benefits has been a source of concern ever since it happened.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And the way this worked was originally Democrats wanted to raise the generosity of unemployment insurance benefits so that people would get their sort of full paycheck replaced by the UI system.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And then it turned out that state labor departments were not able to do that on a technical basis.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: It's not how they're set up to work.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So Democrats came up with this kludge, which was that they would just enhance benefits by $600 a week.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And that meant that on average, you would sort of replace 100% of lost wages.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: But in detail, it doesn't work like that.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Some people are getting more money out of UI than they were actually earning as wages.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And other people are getting less.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So Lindsey Graham, ever since that first became clear, has been raising a big stink about this.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Our goal is to give you 70% of the money you lost by being unemployed, not to give you a pay raise in unemployment.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: We've got to fix that.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: The argument is, what's the incentive to go back to work if the government's giving you more money to stay at home?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: There's an incentive argument.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And I also just think, I guess what we technically call a horizontal equity argument.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: It's like, why should you, the laid off guy, be making more money than your cousin who's back at work, you know, stocking the shelves at a supermarket?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So Republicans are really hung up on this and they are very interested in making the program less generous.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Now, Democrats keep saying, look, like, what are the jobs that people are going to get?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: You can look at a million indicators, right, whether it's wage levels, job openings.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: There's just no sign that there's a practical problem of unemployed people refusing to take jobs because the UI is so generous.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And Democrats are saying, look, this bonus money, it's incredibly well targeted.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: It's going to people who are using the money to pay the rent, make ends meet.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: It's preventing problems, you know, down the road, homelessness, cascading defaults.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And then they're spending the money.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Like, these are people who, you know, you're unemployed, right?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So you get money, you buy groceries, you go out, it keeps the economy going.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And Democrats are saying, look, if we pull this rug out from under people, they're not going to have an incentive to do anything.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: The economy is comatose because of the virus.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: All we're going to have is people going bankrupt, people unable to pay the bills, people unable to make the rent.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And we're going to be at worst in a humanitarian catastrophe, at best trying to fix the problem on the back end.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: But this isn't just Democrats versus Republicans.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: This is also Republicans versus Republicans?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Yeah, I mean, there is one set of Republicans who I think have become true believers on anti-stimulus politics.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Like, what did Republicans say in 2009, 2010, 2012, when President Obama kept saying, we need to spend more money to keep the economy going?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Republicans were saying back then, like, no, spending money doesn't help the economy.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So today, one block of Republicans is like, ha ha ha, we're hypocrites.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Now that there's a Republican in the White House, we do believe in spending money to help the economy.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: But another block of Republicans are true believers.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: A number of senators at lunch get up and say, well, gosh, we need $20 billion for this.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: We need $100 billion for this.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And they're just really eager to spend.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: I'm like, what are you guys doing?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And they're saying, look, we didn't want to do this when Obama was president.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: We didn't want to do it when Trump is president.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: It's just not good to have the federal government spending money.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Just to be clear here, is this more about, you know, you shouldn't be getting paid more to stay at home than your cousin who's going to work every day at Whole Foods?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And or you shouldn't be getting paid this much money not to do anything because you'll never want to go back to work?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Or is it about we just shouldn't be spending this much money and adding trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars to the deficit?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Well, it's about both of those things, right?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Because if you just had this worry about the incentives, if that was the only thing you cared about, you could come up with a workaround.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: You know, you could say, OK, we're going to give less money in unemployment insurance, but we're going to spend trillions of dollars on stimulating the economy through some other means.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: But Republicans don't want to do that, right?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: They want a small bill.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So with a small bill, you would say, OK, then we have to target everything hyper-effectively.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And that means being very generous to the worst-off people.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: But Republicans don't like that idea because they think it damages incentives.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So they're caught between the pressure to keep the overall cost down, but also to avoid being too generous to the poorest.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And they come out with a bill that like a little bit neither fish nor fowl
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And it just reflects those internal caucus dynamics rather than I would say an economic analysis of the situation
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So who holds the upper hand in this fight?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Is it Democrats?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Is it Republicans?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So by the oddball rules of Congress, who holds the upper hand depends on what Republicans do next.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: If McConnell can get all his people together behind this and get a majority for it, then he has a strong hand because Democrats are saying unemployment expiration is so terrible, but it will have already expired.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So $200 is better than $0.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So really, why are Democrats holding off?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Why are they stonewalling?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And supposedly Democrats will be under pressure to come down closer to McConnell's number.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: On the other hand, if three or four Republicans break from the party on this because they say we should spend zero dollars, then that weakens McConnell's hand because now House Democrats have passed a bill and Senate Republicans have done nothing.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And at that point, more vulnerable Senate Republicans like Cory Gardner, Susan Collins, they need to start saying, hey, Democrats, can we work a deal?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: This is like weird Capitol Hill stuff that it should all hinge on exactly how nutty does Rand Paul want to be.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So we're going to have to see, like, how much does the GOP caucus come together around this and say, like, here we stand.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: This is what we're going to do.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Or how much does this kind of effort to duct tape over divisions in the caucus start to break down and change the dynamic again?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: From everything we've covered, it seems deeply unlikely that they'll figure it all out by Friday.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: What does that mean for, I'm guessing, what, tens of millions of Americans who are depending on these benefits?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: So one thing they could do is quickly, you know, Wednesday or Thursday, put on the floor an unemployment extension for like three or four weeks, right?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And say, OK, well, we're going to just keep this going in the short term while we keep negotiating.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: That's a kind of classic Congress move, you know, kick the can a little bit down the road rather than resolve issues.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Nobody thinks that would be a good idea, but it would be the most humane solution at this point, because clearly they're not going to reach an agreement in the next three days.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: All told, it just feels like the government abdicated its responsibility to handle this pandemic particularly well.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And now it feels like the government's on the cusp of abdicating its responsibility to take care of people who are terrified or can't even go back to work.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: I wonder, I mean, as the rest of the world seems to be inching towards reopening and returning to whatever version of normal they can muster, is the United States at risk of really falling behind here as cases continue to climb, states continue to re-shut down, and the government fights over how to take care of people who are caught in the balance?
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: I mean, it's really embarrassing.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: I think if you look at the two parties, one thing you see here is that actual members of Congress who are Democrats are really into the nuts and bolts of governance.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: They have like a lot of feelings and thoughts about Medicaid matching rates and food stamp funding and state and local grant programs.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And like, this is what they actually live for.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Congressional Republicans really don't.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: They are really jazzed up about like fighting about the 1619 Project or talking about whether there's too much violence happening in the Portland protests.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: You know, like those kinds of things animate them.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And people in the media industry often also like to engage with those kind of topics and just like sort of assume that like somebody is governing the country.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: But when Republicans have the majority, the fact that it took them 10 weeks to bother coming up with this bill, it's just a signpost that a lot of their members are not that engaged with this kind of thing.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: They weren't like, let's drop everything and figure out what we're going to do here.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: They kept kind of fighting or having vague positions.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Some members worked very earnestly on this, but a lot of them didn't.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And unfortunately, like millions of people's lives are impacted in a very direct way by the kind of boring minutiae of how the welfare state operates.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: And it's a big problem that the governing party in the United States is not that interested in this question.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Okay, Matthew, thank you so much for your time.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Appreciate it.
--:-- Matthew Iglesias: Okay, thank you.
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