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--:-- Noel King: Welcome to Today Explained. I'm Noel King.
--:-- Lorianne LaRocco: Hi, I'm Lorianne LaRocco, global supply chain reporter for CNBC and author of Trade War, Containers Don't Lie.
--:-- Noel King: Lorianne, thanks for joining us today.
--:-- Lorianne LaRocco: Thanks for having me.
--:-- Noel King: So, let's talk about the trade war and the impact it's having on the US supply chain. President Trump was put on the spot last week when a reporter asked whether Americans should expect shortages as a result of his trade war.
--:-- Lorianne LaRocco: That's right. He gave a classic off-the-cuff answer, saying that maybe the shelves will be open, but the kids will have to make do with fewer dolls.
--:-- Noel King: [chuckles] Yeah, that's a pretty... creative way to put it. But seriously, what's the reality of the situation?
--:-- Lorianne LaRocco: Well, economists say that if you look at what's coming into the US on ships from China, shortages are nearly guaranteed. But the question is, what exactly will be in short supply?
--:-- Noel King: That's a great point. So, what are the containers telling us right now?
--:-- Lorianne LaRocco: The containers are telling us that in the coming weeks, we're going to see shelves starting to get a lot thinner. Maybe not bare, but we will definitely see less items on the shelf.
--:-- Noel King: That's a pretty dire prediction. What's driving this shortage?
--:-- Lorianne LaRocco: It's the collapse of outbound freight out of China into the US. The next time you want to go buy a flat screen television, I would say probably in the middle of June and then after, they will be more expensive.
--:-- Noel King: Wow, that's a pretty specific timeline. What's behind that prediction?
--:-- Lorianne LaRocco: The 145% plus tariff from China has not been deployed until May 27th. May 27th is the day that all items that are coming from China will have that new level of tariff apply to them.
--:-- Noel King: Okay, so it sounds like the tariffs are going to have a big impact on prices. But what about panic buying? Should people be stockpiling goods right now?
--:-- Lorianne LaRocco: I would say panic buying is like the worst thing that we can do because that's what happened with the toilet paper. It's happening again. Panic buying amid the pandemic.
--:-- Noel King: That's a great point. It's not like we're in a situation where we can just stock up on everything and be fine.
--:-- Lorianne LaRocco: Exactly. I would say that if you're on a budget, like say you've got kids, right? And you're staring down back to school, do something smart and like go to your favorite retailer, go now, right? And buy their fall clothes on discount.
--:-- Noel King: That's actually a pretty practical piece of advice. But what about the long-term impact of the trade war? Will this be like the pandemic, where prices skyrocket and then come back down?
--:-- Lorianne LaRocco: I don't think it will be because of a couple of things. So back during the pandemic, the US consumer was at a healthier standpoint. We did not have inflation and we were all stuck at home.
--:-- Noel King: That's a really interesting point. It sounds like the pandemic was a unique situation that's not directly comparable to the trade war.
--:-- Lorianne LaRocco: Yeah, exactly. And it's this unknown in terms of the trade war is global. And so like you mentioned your friend with wine. I mean, I can understand with your friend because I'm a huge Italian wine drinker.
--:-- Noel King: [laughs] Okay, I think we get the idea.
--:-- Lorianne LaRocco: But it's going to be different in terms of we will have the supply chain crunch we will have supply chain shortages but it be in select items but everything will be a lot more expensive.
--:-- Noel King: That's a really sobering prediction. What's the timeline looking like for this?
--:-- Lorianne LaRocco: This is like now or never. And how can a company make orders, right? Prepare orders if they don't know, A, if we're going to buy anything. And B, how are we going to pay 145%?
--:-- Noel King: Okay, so it sounds like the uncertainty is really driving a lot of the decision-making right now.
--:-- Lorianne LaRocco: Yeah, exactly. It's about jobs. It's about moving the truck workers, the warehousing. All of these people, the world of trade is connected on so many different levels.
--:-- Noel King: That's a really important point. It's not just about the prices of goods, it's about the people who are affected by this trade war.
--:-- Lorianne LaRocco: Yeah, exactly.
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--:-- Noel King: Lorianne, thanks for joining us today.
--:-- Lorianne LaRocco: Thanks for having me.
--:-- Noel King: And now, let's talk about de minimis. Liz Young is a reporter at The Wall Street Journal and covers supply chain and logistics.
--:-- Liz Young: Thanks for having me.
--:-- Noel King: So, what is de minimis?
--:-- Liz Young: It's a phrase that comes from Latin that essentially means it's of little value. So many countries around the world have these de minimis trade provisions.
--:-- Noel King: Okay, so it's like a threshold below which tariffs don't apply?
--:-- Liz Young: That's right. In the US, the provision dates to 1938. It was originally aimed at helping Americans bring back little souvenirs and things from traveling abroad.
--:-- Noel King: I see. So, it used to be $1, and now it's $800?
--:-- Liz Young: That's right. And it's been increased several times over the years, most recently from $200 in 2016 to $800.
--:-- Noel King: Okay, so what's the impact of this change?
--:-- Liz Young: Well, it's going to affect a lot of online shoppers, especially those who buy from Chinese-based or Chinese-founded sellers who ship parcels directly to consumers in the US from China.
--:-- Noel King: That's a big deal. What kind of impact are we talking about?
--:-- Liz Young: We're talking about a huge volume of packages. From 400 million entering the US in 2018 to 1.36 billion last year.
--:-- Noel King: Wow, that's a huge increase. And what about the companies that are affected by this change?
--:-- Liz Young: Well, companies like Shein and Temu, they're going to have to pay tariffs on a lot of their goods. And that's going to increase their prices.
--:-- Noel King: Okay, so it sounds like this is going to have a big impact on consumers.
--:-- Liz Young: Yeah, exactly. And it's not just about the prices of goods, it's about the way that companies are going to have to adapt to this new reality.
--:-- Noel King: That's a really important point. Thanks for explaining this to us, Liz.
--:-- Liz Young: Thanks for having me.
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--:-- Noel King: And that's it for today's show. Thanks for listening to Today Explained.
--:-- Liz Young: Thanks for having me.
--:-- Noel King: If you want to support our show, you can become a Vox Member at vox.com/members.
--:-- Liz Young: Yeah, that's a great way to support our work.
--:-- Noel King: And if you want to learn more about the topics we discussed today, you can check out our transcript at vox.com/today-explained-podcast.
--:-- Liz Young: Yeah, that's a great resource.
--:-- Noel King: Thanks again for listening to Today Explained.
--:-- Liz Young: Thanks for having me.
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