--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Welcome to Today Explained. I'm Sean Rameswaram, and I'm here with Andrew Prokop, Senior Political Correspondent at Vox.com.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Thanks for having me on the show.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Today, we're going to talk about the big story of the day, which is Donald Trump's win in the presidential election. Andrew, let's start with the basics. What happened last night and this morning?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Well, four years after Donald Trump tried to steal the 2020 presidential election and left office in disgrace, the American people chose to return him to power and gave him another term in office.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And why did the American people choose that? That is a debate that is going to be very heated over the coming days and weeks and months and years.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: My viewpoint is that this election was not so much about either of the candidates on the ticket and more about President Joe Biden. Come on, man. Biden is, simply put, one of the most unpopular presidents in history. And he has been for some time.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: His approval rating, last I checked, was somewhere around 38 percent. And again, it's been there for some time.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And, you know, I think there was a hope among Democrats this year that Biden's bad approval was just because he was old. Or just because of his vibes, and that if they put in a younger, newer face, then they wouldn't have problems with the electorate, with the public, that they would win.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: In her defense, Kamala Harris came a lot closer to winning than we would expect, traditionally given Joe Biden's horrible approval ratings as the incumbent. But she did not get all the way there.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And my belief is that she simply had too high a hill to climb, given the voter anger at Biden and Democrats that she inherited.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So when Kamala Harris unexpectedly became the Democratic presidential nominee in July, she immediately had to grapple with the question of how her campaign would handle the fact that she is Joe Biden's vice president and that voters really don't like Joe Biden.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Some expected her to perhaps break with Biden and the Biden administration in some way, say that mistakes were made, make a pretty clear argument for how she would do things differently on policy.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: She chose not to do that, basically. Joe Biden is an extremely accomplished, experienced, and capable in every way that anyone would want if they're president. And she chose to argue that, you know, when the economy came up, she argued that, you know, the economy is doing great.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: What we have done is clean up Donald Trump's mess. What we have done and what I intend to do is build on what we know are the aspirations and the hopes of the American people.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But I'm going to tell you all in this debate tonight. When immigration came up and voter anger about the situation at the border, she would say, well, that's all Republicans' fault for not passing the immigration reform bill.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: But you know what happened to that bill? Donald Trump got on the phone, called up some folks in Congress and said, kill the bill. And you know why? Because he'd prefer to run on a problem instead of fixing a problem.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: What she didn't say was, I hear people are unhappy with certain things that the Biden administration did. I accept that and I would do things differently in these specific ways.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Now, there are understandable reasons why she might not have done that. I'm sure they considered doing this. I'm sure they tested it. Perhaps they ultimately thought that, you know, making any admission of flaws hurt more than it helped.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And so I'm not second-guessing the political calculation there, but I am pointing out that it did not work.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: There's a lot of people talking this morning about some serious demographic shifts and realignments. How much are you thinking about that?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I think it's too early to say. Almost all analysis purporting to know how different age groups or gender groups or racial or ethnic groups shifted is based on the exit polls, which past experience has shown are highly unreliable and unlikely to match what actually happened.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: The more rigorous and reliable analyses take more time. So in the absence of evidence, I kind of default to the idea of, you know, rather than like demographic number crunching, what happened more is a broad national shift against Democrats that we can see among many different demographics and types of voters.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: That shift may have been more intense among certain demographics, but this is not something that only happened in a few places. This was pretty widespread.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: OK, we've covered how Harris lost the race, even how Biden lost the race. How did Trump win the race? Because it seemed like his campaign was rather messy.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Well, I think the political conventional wisdom all throughout this race has been that Trump had a good hand given voters' dissatisfaction with Joe Biden and his record, particularly on key issues like inflation, immigration, and foreign policy.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: But I think one important thing that Trump did do is that he really tried to wriggle away from the abortion issue. He saw and understood that the Dobbs decision was a problem for Republicans in 2022.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Basically, at a time when Republican pro-life groups were feeling flush with victory and urging Republicans to go further, perhaps passing a national abortion ban, Trump did not want anything to do with that.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: My view is now that we have abortion where everybody wanted it from a legal standpoint, the states will determine by vote or legislation or perhaps both. And whatever they decide must be the law of the land. In this case, the law of the state.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: He was cautious about the abortion issue and wanted to make sure that it didn't sink his campaign, which in the end it didn't.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And, you know, it may be selective memory to think back about the Trump years and how crazy they were and be like, well, there was this Trump nostalgia that sort of came up. That like, well, at least we didn't have inflation. Well, at least, you know, the border problem wasn't so bad.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Or, well, we didn't have these like horrible foreign wars in Ukraine and in Gaza. And of course, you can't really fairly blame Biden for all of that.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: The idea that and also a sort of retrospective forgetting of the pandemic, the idea that things were better in the 27 to 2019 years of the Trump era and that if he returned and that the pandemic wasn't really his fault and that if he returned to power, we could get back to those years.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I think that was a powerful advantage that he had in this race. And in the end, you know, trying to steal the election and being indicted four times proved to matter much less than voters' dissatisfaction with the current state of the country and wanting things to be different.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: What happens to all that stuff, Andrew? I know you've reported on it.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Well, the federal cases against Trump are going to go away for sure. He's made that very clear. He'll put someone in at the Justice Department who will just close those down and drop those prosecutions.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: He's still set for sentencing in the New York State case where he was actually convicted, but consider it unlikely that he will serve that sentence anytime soon given that he's going to be the president.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And the Georgia case has been bogged down in procedural issues for some time.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: So, yes, the big effort to indict Trump four times and hold him accountable and disqualify him in voters' eyes from holding office again has turned out to be a complete failure.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: A lot of people are happy today, Andrew. A lot of people are despondent. A lot of people are just staring off into the distance, wondering what the next four years are going to look like.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: What kind of mandate does Donald Trump have to govern this country for the next four years?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I don't really believe in the concept of a mandate, but he won the popular vote, so he can point to that.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Republicans will have the Senate. The House is not clear yet. We'll take some time to figure that out.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But that will obviously play a big role in whether Trump has a free hand to pass his agenda.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: But yeah, he'll be able to confirm his appointees. He had his best presidential election performance of three runs.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: He can fairly claim that he won the argument that the American people, more of the American people were convinced that he would be a better president than Kamala Harris would.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And now we will see what that will bring us.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Andrew Prokop, Vox.com, a great place to read about, oh, the next four years of Donald Trump, I guess.
--:-- [Support for the show]
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Support for Today Explained comes from Adio. What is Adio?
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Shelby Talcott covered the Trump campaign for Semaphore. Shelby, you were with President-elect Trump and his team in West Palm Beach last night. What was that like?
--:-- Shelby Talcott: Yeah, the campaign last night went into this sort of cautiously optimistic. And actually, in fact, the data was so good for them and the polling was so good for them compared to prior elections that some of them were a little bit paranoid because they hadn't dealt with being in such a good position compared to 2020 and 2016.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So they were double-checking the data, but they were going in feeling pretty good.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: And as the night went on and the data started rolling in, I was hearing from campaign aides who were with Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago. And they quickly became, you know, much more confident because it seemed like all the numbers were going more for them than they were for Kamala Harris.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: When Trump spoke last night, what did you hear?
--:-- Shelby Talcott: Donald Trump sort of, I think in a way he was almost surprised that it was such a decisive victory. And he took the stage with a number of campaign aides and with his family and he spent some time thanking everybody and he said that... Frankly, this was, I believe, the greatest political movement of all time.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: There's never been anything like this in this country and maybe beyond.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: And he talked a little bit about immigration, which is a key topic we've heard him talk about before. He went on sort of a long tangent about Elon Musk.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You know, he sent the rocket up two weeks ago, and I saw that rocket, and I saw it coming down. I saw it. It was, when it left, it was beautiful, shiny white when it came down.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: A few of us sort of looked around and were like, OK, you know, it's 2 o'clock in the morning.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: He said, we've never made a paint that could withstand that kind of heat.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: I think in some ways he maybe wasn't expecting to win by such wide margins.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We know that Donald Trump was elected for a couple of reasons. Americans are very unhappy about the economy, inflation, the cost of housing. Let's talk about what Trump has promised to do if elected and what we expect to see quickly.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: Well, one of the big things Trump has promised, of course, is to implement a bunch of tariffs. Critics say your tariffs will end up being like a national sales tax.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Because if you have America at the moment has $3 trillion worth of imports, you're going to add tariffs to every single one of them. That is going to push up the cost for all those people who want to buy foreign goods.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: That is just simple mathematics, President Trump. It's not history. Yeah, it is. But not the way you figured.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And that, you know, has a number of potential implications.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: He argues that it will help because essentially it will threaten some of these other countries and they will, you know, do America's bidding.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But when I talk to economists, they say, you know, this could actually make costs rise in the short term.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: And so that, I think, is something that he's going to try to do right away.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I think also, you know, he talked a little bit last night about the makeup of the House and Senate. And that's going to be really crucial in how much he's able to get done.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: You know, Trump wants to extend all of the tax cuts that he passed in 2017. So that's going to be really big.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And I anticipate that that could be, you know, a big fight heading in to his office.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: He also wants to lower the corporate tax rate to 15 percent for some companies.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: He's promised a number of rollbacks on taxes, which is, you know, a big reason why some people voted for him.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: And so that's going to be interesting to see how he how he can implement all of these tax breaks that he has promised the American people over the last few months.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And so he has promised a wide swath of things that may be difficult to implement, but also will be interesting to see sort of how he implements and the repercussions should he actually be successful in implementing it.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: Donald Trump has also made big promises on immigration and the way he's been framing them is kind of like these are day one promises.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: What should we expect on immigration right out of the gate?
--:-- Shelby Talcott: You know, he has promised mass deportation. We will begin the largest deportation operation in the history of the United States.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Dwight Eisenhower right now has that record.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: And I done a lot of reporting on this on sort of what that plan would look like When I talked to the Trump campaign they say they going to start with those people who have committed crimes.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And then there going to be such a big plan afterwards that it essentially make it so difficult for undocumented immigrants to live that a lot of them will just self-deport.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: Now, I think there's a lot of challenges to that when I've talked to experts.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: He'll have a lot of leeway to make political changes compared to the Biden administration. But there's going to be, he's going to face legal hurdles. He's going to face logistical hurdles.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: And his campaign is aware that this is not going to necessarily be something that they'll just implement with sort of no pushback.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You joined us twice on the show to talk about Project 2025. Trump distanced himself from Project 2025 when he was campaigning, but now he has won. What are we expecting there?
--:-- Shelby Talcott: Yeah, you know, when I talk to Donald Trump's campaign, they sort of hold a grudge against Project 2025 and the people who developed it, which is the Heritage Foundation.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And I've actually been told, and I think this reporting matches what others have been told, is that there's sort of a ban on anyone who was affiliated in any way with Project 2025.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: Now, whether that holds, because, you know, listen, Project 2025 and the Heritage Foundation, it was a huge project, right? It was thousands of people were involved in some way or another.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And so to sort of just mass ban all of those people might be very difficult when you're thinking about having new staff, an entire upcoming White House.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: But there are some grudges because Project 2025, of course, became such a rallying cry for Democrats, and it was successful to an extent.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yes, it was successful. It scared Democrats. And it appeared for a time that it was really motivating Democrats.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: What about Trump's plans to shrink the federal government?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yeah, so Schedule F is obviously something that we've talked about a lot. I think that was one of the first big topics that was brought up when Donald Trump first ran.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: He wants to essentially strip civil service protections for a number of career federal workers in positions that normally would be protected from administration to administration.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And he wants to sort of bring in a lot more loyalists in his White House.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: And this is something that he has talked about for years. This is not a new policy to this administration.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And President Biden actually rescinded Schedule F when he took office in 2021.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: So it would have a really big effect on government.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: He wants to just sort of rehaul everything. He wants to make a lot of things smaller.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: He also wants to, you know, he's talked about getting rid of certain things. I know the conservatives have talked a lot. And this was in Project 2025 about getting rid of, you know, the Department of Education, for example, and sort of bringing it all back to the states.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: What did your time covering this campaign tell you about the next four years?
--:-- Shelby Talcott: You know, I do think that Donald Trump's campaign this time around has been one of the more organized campaigns that he's run.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Now, is that saying that it was the most organized campaign or that you did not have the candidate going off script and complicating things for his campaign aides?
--:-- Shelby Talcott: No, Donald Trump certainly did that. But I think the biggest thing is that he had more experienced people this time around who have been there, done that.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And I think that that sort of is representative of how he could approach the next four years is when he got into office in 2016, he surrounded himself with a lot of people who weren't necessarily experienced in all of this.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: Now you have people potentially returning like Stephen Miller, who is big on the immigration stuff, who has been here for years.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: They know what the legal arguments are going to look like. They're ready to fight. They are more prepared to find ways to implement Donald Trump's plan that they weren't in his first term.
--:-- Shelby Talcott: That was Semaphore's Shelby Talcott covering the Trump campaign.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Today's show was produced by Amanda Llewellyn and Miles Bryan with help from Avishay Artsy, Victoria Chamberlain, and Eliza Dennis.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It was edited by Amina El-Sadi with an assist from Matthew Collette, and it was fact-checked by Laura Bullard.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We were mixed and mastered by Patrick Boyd and Rob Byers.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And most important of all, Guglielmo King is our mascot.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: He sat with us all night.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: For Sean Rameswaram, I'm Noelle King. This is Today Explained. Thank you.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The truth is, banking can do more. Mercury brings all the ways you use money into a single product that feels extraordinary to use.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We connect what's happening in Washington to the rest of the globe.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Expose corruption wherever we find it.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Meet Senorita, the THC-infused margarita that lets you skip the booze, but keep the vibe.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Made with real fruit, organic agave, and Himalayan pink salt, every sip is like a mini getaway.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Support for Today Explained comes from Upwork. If you run a business, you know that scaling your business requires the right expertise at the right time.
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--:-- [Support for the show]
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Support for Today Explained comes from The Guardian. Our coverage has something unique.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Fierce independence. Nobody owns us or tells us what we can and can't say.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So we're free to report the whole picture.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We connect what's happening in Washington to the rest of the globe.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Expose corruption wherever we find it.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And give fresh perspective on everything.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: From wellness and soccer to culture, the climate, and more.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Read, watch, and listen to The Guardian for free at theguardian.com.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Thank you.
--:-- [Support for the show]
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Support for Today Explained comes from BetterHelp. If you're struggling with anxiety, depression, or other mental health issues, you're not alone.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: BetterHelp is the largest online therapy provider in the world.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: With BetterHelp, you can get access to mental health professionals with a diverse variety of expertise.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Find the one that's right for you.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Our listeners get 10% off their first month at BetterHelp.com slash explain.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: That's BetterHelp.com slash explain.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Thank you.
--:-- [Support for the show]
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Support for Today Explained comes from Senorita. Having a night out with your friends is awesome.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Dealing with hangovers sucks.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Meet Senorita, the THC-infused margarita that lets you skip the booze, but keep the vibe.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Made with real fruit, organic agave, and Himalayan pink salt, every sip is like a mini getaway.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: No fillers, no hangovers, just full flavor and a better buzz.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Find your flavor at senoritadrinks.com.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Support for Today Explained comes from Adio. What is Adio?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Adio is an AI-native customer relationship management system built specifically for the next era of companies.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: They say it's extremely powerful, adapts to your unique data structures, and scales with any business model.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: According to Adio, Adio takes less than a minute to set up and within seconds, you will have your email and calendars synced.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You'll see all your relationships in a fully fledged platform, they say, all enriched with that actionable data.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And they say you can build AI-powered automations and use its research agent to tackle some of your most complex processes to seize so that you can focus on what matters building your company.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You can join industry leaders such as Flatfile, Replicate, Modal, and so much more.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Thank you.
--:-- [Support for the show]
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Support for Today Explained comes from Upwork. If you run a business, you know that scaling your business requires the right expertise at the right time.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: With Upwork, you can find specialized freelancers in IT, web development, AI, design, admin support, marketing, and more.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Experts who are ready to help you take your business to the next level.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: With more than two decades of experience, Upwork has a simple and ambitious goal to pioneer a better way of working.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Companies at every stage turn to Upwork to get things done and find more flexibility in the way they staff key projects and initiatives by accessing a global marketplace full of top talent.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Plus, Upwork makes posting your job easy with no cost to join.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You can register, browse freelancer profiles, get help drafting a job post, or even book a consultation.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You can visit Upwork.com right now and post your job for free.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: That is Upwork.com to post your job for free and connect with top towns ready to help your business grow.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Thank you.
--:-- [Support for the show]
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Support for Today Explained comes from The Guardian. Our coverage has something unique.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Fierce independence. Nobody owns us or tells us what we can and can't say.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So we're free to report the whole picture.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We connect what's happening in Washington to the rest of the globe.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Expose corruption wherever we find it.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And give fresh perspective on everything.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: From wellness and soccer to culture, the climate, and more.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Read, watch, and listen to The Guardian for free at theguardian.com.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Our listeners get 10% off their first month at BetterHelp.com slash explain.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: That's BetterHelp.com slash explain.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Support for Today Explained comes from Senorita. Having a night out with your friends is awesome.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Support for Today Explained comes from Adio. What is Adio?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Adio is an AI-native customer relationship management system built specifically for the next era of companies.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: They say it's extremely powerful, adapts to your unique data structures, and scales with any business model.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: According to Adio, Adio takes less than a minute to set up and within seconds, you will have your email and calendars synced.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Support for Today Explained comes from Upwork. If you run a business, you know that scaling your business requires the right expertise at the right time.
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