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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Welcome to Today Explained. I'm Sean Rameswaram.
--:-- Noel King: And I'm Noel King.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Today, we're going to tell the story of what exactly happened to Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, and what's to come for all the countries involved.
--:-- Noel King: That's right. We'll be joined by Justin Ling, a freelance journalist based in Toronto, who's been covering this story for Foreign Policy.
--:-- Justin Ling: Thanks for having me on the show.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So on January 8th, just a little over a week ago, amid a lot of tensions in the Middle East, just as Iran was firing a barrage of missiles towards American military bases in Iraq, Ukrainian Airlines International Flight 752 took off from Tehran, destined for Kiev, and then a lot of the passengers were destined to go on to Toronto.
--:-- Justin Ling: We're learning that a Boeing 737 passenger plane has crashed in Iran with 176 passengers and crew on board. Those on board included academics returning from holidays, newlyweds coming back from their wedding, and many, many students. They came from Iran, Canada, Ukraine, Sweden, Afghanistan, Germany, and England.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: 138 of them were supposed to be on a connecting flight to Toronto. It landed this afternoon without those people. All of them died in the crash.
--:-- Justin Ling: Now there was a whole bunch of confusion as this was happening. There were reports of a plane crash, but this was happening at the exact same times as there were fears that American fighter jets were taking off from the UAE and elsewhere, maybe destined for Iran.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Iran. There was immense confusion about where the missiles were going, what fighter jets may have been scrambled. So no one really knew what was happening.
--:-- Justin Ling: It wasn't until we started getting images of this wreckage that, as the hours went on, became clear that this commercial flight had gone down.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So how does Iran initially react to this plane going down? What do they say?
--:-- Justin Ling: So when it becomes clear that in fact a commercial jet had gone down in Iran, before anyone really knew fully what had happened, Iranian media reports say the aircraft came down due to technical problems. One official said it had been on fire.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You know, there wasn't a lot of credibility behind that, especially after images started coming out that were initially unverified. Showing what appeared to be the plane on fire mid-flight before it crashed in a field.
--:-- Justin Ling: That generally doesn't seem to happen a lot with engine failure. You don't see a huge explosion. I have my suspicions. It was very... I don't want to say that because other people have those suspicions also.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It's a tragic thing when I see that. It's a tragic thing. But somebody could have made a mistake on the other side, could have made a mistake.
--:-- Justin Ling: It was flying. Already from the get-go, there was a lot of speculation that this had been a military incident. And not a mechanical failure.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Most Western leaders are unanimous in their assessment that missiles launched in Iran brought down the doomed plane. But today, Tehran is demanding proof.
--:-- Justin Ling: So while Iran is denying that this is their work, what are Ukraine and Canada saying about it?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Publicly, Ukraine was quiet. Ukraine managed to get investigators to the crash site relatively quickly, seemingly quicker than any other foreign state.
--:-- Justin Ling: That's because under international civil aviation's laws, the destination country has special rights when it comes to the investigation. They have a higher standing when it comes to sending investigators to the crash site.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And Iran dispatched a number of highly trained investigators to look at the crash site. And it seems, thanks to some reporting now, that the investigators learned pretty quickly that this was a shootdown event. They kept that quiet initially.
--:-- Justin Ling: Canada was a little more blunt as time went on. We have intelligence from multiple sources, including our allies and our own intelligence, the evidence indicates that the plane was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: This may well have been unintentional. He opened the door and said, listen, this may be an accident. We don't know. But he said, you know, the intelligence is pretty clear-cut.
--:-- Justin Ling: So it very quickly, I think, put Iran on the defensive as they were still trying to claim that this was a mechanical failure.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So how does Iran react to Canada's aggressive reaction?
--:-- Justin Ling: You had the head of the Iranian Civil Aviation Organization saying that they had already investigated and that they completely ruled out the possibility that missiles were to blame for downing the jet.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Families of those killed in the downed plane in Iran are facing competing narratives tonight about what led to the deaths of their loved ones.
--:-- Justin Ling: Iran does not believe what Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said yesterday about an Iranian missile shooting down the Ukraine airline's flight. It categorically denies it.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But of course, there's video evidence of these missiles heading towards the plane. It very, very clear what had happened based on cell phone imagery that was uploaded and that was collected in some cases by The New York Times and others.
--:-- Justin Ling: I think it became pretty clear to Iran that they didn't have a leg to stand on.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Does Iran come out and make an official statement saying, "Hey, that was actually us, and sorry we lied"?
--:-- Justin Ling: Iranian state media certainly recognized that it was in fact the Iranian regime. That doesn't really happen unless the regime itself acknowledges it.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Iran now faces pressure, not just from America, you know, of course, with whom it had rising tensions over the recent weeks, but now it has a problem with Canada, with Ukraine, with the European Union.
--:-- Justin Ling: And suddenly after trying to garner some international goodwill, it is now very much regarded as the bad guy. Not only did it shoot down a plane, it tried to lie about it.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And that is very difficult, I think, for the Iranian regime to spin to the European countries with whom it's trying to preserve a nuclear deal.
--:-- Justin Ling: On top of that, you have rising discord inside Iran itself. There's anger at the government on the streets in Tehran. Pockets of protest after Iran's military admitted it accidentally shot down a civilian plane.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: They shout for their leaders to resign. There were widespread protests in Iran towards the end of last year, largely over the cost of living.
--:-- Justin Ling: As the new year dawned, a lot of those protests petered out, partially because of fear, I think, internally that they were heading to the precipice of war with America, especially after the targeted killing of General Soleimani.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I think the Iranian regime sort of managed to rally some of the population around its national cause. That went out the window when it became clear that Iran was responsible for shooting down a jet that had dozens of its own citizens on board.
--:-- Justin Ling: So what is Iran doing now to own this?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: In recent days, you've seen the state start rounding up some people without much detail who they claim are responsible for the shoot down.
--:-- Justin Ling: Iran now confirming that arrests have been made of those involved in the accidental shooting down of that plane.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: No details, however, of how many or exactly who has been arrested.
--:-- Justin Ling: And this morning, Iran's President Rouhani admitting that from the get-go, he thought the crash wasn't normal.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: That does seem to be a bit of scapegoating, you know, sort of trying to blame a rogue faction or, you know, some incompetent military brass inside.
--:-- Justin Ling: But I don't know that many in the public are really going to buy that.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I mean, fundamentally, military structures being what they are, you can't really blame the lowest level for a mistake of this magnitude.
--:-- Justin Ling: Ultimately, someone higher up needs to be held responsible, if not the military and the state itself.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Was there any attempt to shift the blame back on the United States?
--:-- Justin Ling: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, you know, that was a kind of quick retort from Tehran. After they recognized they themselves were responsible for downing this airliner, they sort of put it back onto Washington and said, you know, if not for the hostilities spurred by America, this never would have happened.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And surely Canada isn't too happy with the United States either.
--:-- Justin Ling: I think if there were no tensions, if there was no escalation recently in the region, those Canadians would be right now home with their families.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: This is something that happens when you have conflict and war. Innocence bears the brunt of it.
--:-- Justin Ling: Canadian citizens were represented more than any others in the international community on that flight.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And I think it puts it on Canada to step up and ensure that there is a credible investigation for one, but also a credible legal process.
--:-- Justin Ling: Thus far, it's been a mixed bag. Iran initially said that the black boxes were damaged and couldn't be read. Now they're saying they're damaged, but there's still data on them.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And just recently, we've seen them seemingly acquiesce to a request to send the black boxes to France for analysis.
--:-- Justin Ling: So it remains to be seen how, to what end, they're going to allow military commanders to be interviewed by investigators.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: That will be a huge piece of this puzzle.
--:-- Justin Ling: It's not clear whether or not they're going to participate in potentially a process at the International Court of Justice.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: All of those things down the line are big questions that will be very interesting to see how Iran responds to.
--:-- Justin Ling: More with me in a minute on Today Explained.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Support for Today Explained comes from Built Rewards.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Not anymore, says Built Rewards. Built Rewards says it lets you earn points on your rent. By paying rent through Built, they say you can earn flexible points that can be redeemed toward hundreds of hotels and airlines, perhaps a future rent payment, your next Lyft ride, and so much more.
--:-- Justin Ling: Your home isn't just where you sleep. It's your community, and Bilt wants you to go out and do things in the community.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You can eat at your favorite local restaurants, then earn more points. You can get VIP treatment at certain fitness studios.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: When you're ready to travel, they say Bilt points can be converted to miles or hotel points all around the world.
--:-- Justin Ling: You can earn points on rent and around your neighborhood wherever you call home by joining Bilt.com slash explained.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: That's J-O-I-N-B-I-L-T dot com slash explained.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Justin, has something like this ever happened before? A country accidentally shooting down a plane full of civilians?
--:-- Justin Ling: Yeah, so unfortunately it happened several times.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: In 1988 in the Iran War there were immense tensions in the region.
--:-- Justin Ling: There was a huge threat to international shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, an incredibly vital shipping lane.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So the U.S. Navy dispatched several ships to patrol the waters and to make sure that both states were respecting international shipping.
--:-- Justin Ling: At one point in early July 1988, an Iranian airline's flight took off from a southern port city, and the U.S. naval ship nearby mistook it for an F-14 fighter jet and fired two missiles and downed the flight, killing everybody on board, mostly Iranian citizens.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: In evaluating information available from the Persian Gulf, we believe that the cruiser USS Vincennes, while actively engaged with threatening Iranian surface units and protecting itself from what was concluded to be a hostile aircraft, shot down an Iranian airliner over the Straits of Hormuz.
--:-- Justin Ling: The U.S. government deeply regrets this incident.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: In that moment, a lot of those fears about what happens when a military sort of overreacts came alive all over again.
--:-- Justin Ling: The U.S. military expressed their dismay immediately, but they didn't take responsibility.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: On the information that is available to us, that the commanding officer operated, or rather, conducted himself with circumspection, and considering the information that was available to him, followed his authorities, and acted with good judgment, and at a very trying period of time...
--:-- Justin Ling: You know, the U.S. military, in a very similar way to what the Iranians did just this month, they're sort of making excuses.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The aircraft was not in the air corridor that would normally be in, but the air corridor is a limited amount of airspace.
--:-- Justin Ling: And he was outside of that, whether that is a... They started saying, you know, well, the flight was operating at a military frequency.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The flight started descending quite rapidly in an aggressive maneuver.
--:-- Justin Ling: And they started trying to set up justification for the shoot down.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Now, in the months that followed, a lot of the other intelligence and radio communications and radar imagery showed that, in fact, the flight was transmitting on a civilian frequency as well.
--:-- Justin Ling: That it was quite obvious it was a commercial airliner, that in fact the flight was ascending, not descending, and that a lot of the claims that were being made may have been well-believed in the moment, but were ultimately wrong.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It sounds like there is an established playbook for this, and that playbook is whenever you shoot down a plane accidentally, the first thing you do is lie about it.
--:-- Justin Ling: Not even necessarily lie, but you kind of weaponize the information you have in front of you to sort of skirt responsibility, right?
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So, you know, I don't really have any doubt that those on the U.S. ship did believe that an F-14 was heading their way with the intent of sinking the ship.
--:-- Justin Ling: That being said, obviously there was more checks that they needed to do to confirm that it was an F-14 and not a civilian aircraft.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: How does the U.S. deal with its accidental downing of a civilian aircraft?
--:-- Justin Ling: It starts proceedings at the U.N. and in the International Court of Justice.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The government of the Islamic Republic of Iran considers this a premeditated act of aggression and a premeditated cold-blooded murder.
--:-- Justin Ling: And they go to court basically saying America needs to be held responsible for this.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: America, all the while, is expressing sympathy. It sort of acknowledges that this was done in error, but it never actually apologizes and it never really takes responsibility for what has happened.
--:-- Justin Ling: Ultimately, that process begins as a full investigation.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: There's a real investigation that sort of lays bare a lot of the facts of this case.
--:-- Justin Ling: But when it gets to court, America basically says, we're looking to settle.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The United States and Iran have settled Iran's claims against the United States, which were filed before the International Court of Justice.
--:-- Justin Ling: And that sort of begins setting the stage for what the sort of case law will be going forward.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And I think it also reinforces to the world that there needs to be rules in these situations.
--:-- Justin Ling: It can't really be an ad hoc basis where countries are allowed to sort of accept responsibility or deny responsibility based on how they're feeling that day.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So how much does the U.S. end up paying?
--:-- Justin Ling: So ultimately, the settlement in 1996 works out to about $131 million.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: It's not a huge sum of money, but I think from both sides, it was a relatively fair settlement and a recognition of sort of the damage that had been done to those families.
--:-- Justin Ling: Of course, we never really replace those who died, but it was a substantial sum of money.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And did it create some sort of legal precedent, even though it was, I guess, up to these two countries how much money was issued?
--:-- Justin Ling: It sort of created a benchmark for what a reasonable settlement looks like.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: America never accepted responsibility, never apologized, and that was something Iran had always demanded.
--:-- Justin Ling: Years later, when the captain of the ship that was responsible for the downing was kind of celebrated and recognized as a hero, and in the U.S. military, Iran was absolutely livid all over again.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So there's always been this sort of tension where America has never quite owned up to what happened in its entirety, and Iran has always been sort of sore about that.
--:-- Justin Ling: But it sort of sets rules on what happens when a military downs a civilian airliner and sort of lays the groundwork for what investigations look like when that happens.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Who is going to be in the position more so here to ensure that Iran is held accountable? Is it Ukraine? Is it Canada?
--:-- Justin Ling: We saw a conversation begin around what a legal process should look like when a military downs a civilian airliner through something called the Chicago Convention.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And the Chicago Convention sort of governs how commercial airliners are supposed to operate from one country to another.
--:-- Justin Ling: It's supposed to be an international standard for, you know, how planes take off and land and fly through other countries' airspace.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So under the Chicago Convention, it sort of recognizes different parties for different responsibilities.
--:-- Justin Ling: So as part of the investigation, the manufacturer of the aircraft has sort of special status in terms of leading the investigation, though that is sort of designed more for mechanical failures.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: The country the flight was destined for has standing to sort of run the investigation.
--:-- Justin Ling: But it's also not totally defined.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I mean, Canada has insisted on sending investigators. It's already sent a couple. It's likely to send many more.
--:-- Justin Ling: There was some reticence by Iran seemingly to give them visas. They've now been awarded those visas and they're likely in Iran right now and more likely to show up.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But I think Canada has to sort of force itself into this.
--:-- Justin Ling: I mean, I don't think Ukraine is necessarily incredibly invested in the region.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You know, it has its own sort of concerns to worry about right now.
--:-- Justin Ling: The majority of the victims from abroad were Canadians.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So I think it really puts the onus on Canada to step in here.
--:-- Justin Ling: What's more, Canada has long pressed the Iranian regime for changes around human rights, for changes around democratic processes, to sort of try to press it to stop funding terrorist organizations in the region.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So I think Canada has already exercised a fair bit of pressure on the Iranian state.
--:-- Justin Ling: It has been supportive, though not a party, to the nuclear deal with the European Union and the US, which I think, again, puts it in a good spot to actually use what leverage it has to go after Tehran to do this properly.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Canada had substantial sanctions in place against Iran up until the last couple of years.
--:-- Justin Ling: They've removed those sanctions, and I can imagine that putting them back on will be on the table now.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So I think Canada is really the best place here.
--:-- Justin Ling: Of course, America may see itself being party to the eventual legal process, but obviously, given the hostilities between those two countries and Iran's assistance that America is somewhat to blame for the downing, I think it puts them in too awkward a spot to really inject themselves into this process in a major way.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: How's the Canadian public reacting? Is it mad at Iran? Is it mad at the United States?
--:-- Justin Ling: I think it's both.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You know, there is a public perception that America does bear some blame because it created the hostilities that led to this incident.
--:-- Justin Ling: At the same time, there's also, I think, going to be a fair bit of anger at the Iranian state for, you know, actually being responsible.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And if there's a perception that Iran is dragging its feet, you know, when it comes to the investigation or the court process, or that it is obfuscating or trying to cover up this incident.
--:-- Justin Ling: I think there's going to be a real demand that Iran be held to account.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But there's been a fair bit of mourning. This was devastating, especially to the small number of communities where these folks came from.
--:-- Justin Ling: Most of the victims came either from Edmonton, Ottawa, or Montreal.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And you saw the Prime Minister reach out to a lot of the victims' families and friends and supporters who showed up on Parliament Hill to hold a candlelight vigil the day after the incident.
--:-- Justin Ling: You know, this has been really devastating to a tight-knit community.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: They were all geniuses who came here to learn. They came here to add to the world, and now they are not here anymore.
--:-- Justin Ling: She was on the plane last night, and I lost her with her two friends.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I have no one in Canada. Like, my friends are my families. They were all families.
--:-- Justin Ling: Today I lost a brother, I lost a sister, and it's sad.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You may feel unbearably lonely, but you are not alone. Your entire country stands with you tonight, tomorrow, and in all the years to come.
--:-- Justin Ling: We will build that future they all dreamed of together. That's what Canada is.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But if Canada is successful in holding Iran accountable, it might end up ensuring that the families of Iranians who died on this flight are compensated too.
--:-- Justin Ling: Absolutely.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And that really is the flip side of all of this, is that if Canada can make this international court of justice process work, can put real force and effect behind the Chicago Convention, then that is a real big victory here.
--:-- Justin Ling: You know, this is what this whole process was designed as going back to the 1980s.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You know, this was kind of the dream of a lot of people who put this together was to create a legal mechanism to ensure that when something like this happens, there is repercussions.
--:-- Justin Ling: And that there has to be, if not a full apology, at least a recognition of responsibility, a path to justice for the people who lost their loved ones on these flights.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And hopefully sort of a disincentive for states to shoot first and ask questions later.
--:-- Justin Ling: Justin Ling is a freelance reporter. He's been writing lots about Flight 752 for foreign policy.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: I'm Sean Rameswaram for him. This is Today Explained.
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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Business will be psyched to collaborate and create amazing presentations, videos, social posts, flyers, and more. Meet Adobe Express, the quick and easy app to create on-brand content. Learn more at adobe.com slash express slash business.
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