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--:-- Noel King: The U.S. Army recently resurrected a recruiting slogan that first appeared in 1981 because that campaign seemed to work back then. We do more before 9 a.m. than most people do all day.
--:-- [Sound effects: A military-style alarm clock goes off]
--:-- Noel King: Hey, First Sergeant. Good morning. You can do it in the arms. Some of the recent ads even featured a celebrity, Jonathan Majors, but they had to be pulled after. The Creed 3 star was arrested in New York City on charges of strangulation, assault, and harassment.
--:-- [Sound effects: A news clip plays in the background]
--:-- Noel King: Young people overwhelmingly do not want to join the Army. The Army put out statistics that indicate that only 9% of American youth are even interested in military service. And the Army does not want a lot of the young people. So what is going to give?
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--:-- Noel King: That's coming up on Today Explained. Support for Today Explained comes from BetterHelp. Let me tell you a true story. Last weekend, I got an email from a listener who wanted to discuss their problems with me. And I said, look, I don't think that this is about me personally. At least I hope it's not. Why don't you try betterhelp.com slash explained? Absolute truth.
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--:-- Noel King: As the largest online therapy provider in the world, BetterHelp can provide access to mental health professionals with a diverse variety of expertise. Find the one with BetterHelp. The one is not me, guys. Our listeners get 10% off their first month at betterhelp.com slash explained. That's betterhelp.com slash explained.
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--:-- Noel King: Support for the show comes from Charles Schwab. At Schwab, how you invest is your choice not theirs. That's why when it comes to managing your wealth, Schwab gives you more choices. You can invest and trade on your own, plus get advice and more comprehensive wealth solutions to help meet your unique needs with award-winning service, low costs, and transparent advice. You can manage your wealth your way at Schwab. Visit schwab.com to learn more.
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--:-- Noel King: It's Today Explained. I'm Noelle King. Tell me who you are.
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: I'm Kate Kuzminski. I am a senior fellow and the director of the Military Veterans and Society Program at the Center for a New American Security, where I focus on military personnel policy.
--:-- Noel King: So the recruiting landscape is a bit challenging for the Army and for all of the services. Last year, at the end of the fiscal year, which ended on September 30th, the Army was short about 15,000 soldiers, which was about 25 percent of the goal that they were after for last fiscal year.
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: How many people are currently in the Army?
--:-- Noel King: The total Army, the active reserve and National Guard, are approximately one million strong. The majority of those are in the active component, which is about 475,000.
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: 475,000. OK, so the Army misses its recruiting goal by 15,000 last fiscal year. That sort of seems like a drop in the bucket. Are those 15,000 people who did not sign up, are they replacing 15,000 active duty service members who retired? Or is the Army getting bigger?
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: They are replacing those who have left the service, whether through retirement or after serving one or two terms of enlistment. Congress sets a cap, which is known as the end strength. And each year, that is the total amount that the services are allowed to have. So the services project to replace each person who leaves to meet that cap.
--:-- Noel King: What are the reasons that the Army is missing its recruiting goals?
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: There's two challenges. So on the one hand, there's eligibility challenges. Approximately 30 percent of American youth, and that's a generous number, are eligible for military service. A recent Pentagon study found only 23 percent of young Americans are qualified, down from 29 percent in recent years. Part of the reason? Obesity and drug use.
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: Things like medical, physical fitness, moral fitness, and academic and intellectual fitness. We have an academic test that recruits are required to take, and it used to be two-thirds passed. Now only one-third pass.
--:-- Noel King: And then there's also propensity, which is an individual's interest or willingness to serve.
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: First and foremost, I don't think there's enough support given after you serve your time. The Department of Veterans Affairs estimated that there are about 100,000 veterans that are homeless any given night.
--:-- Noel King: We've seen that decrease over time. And the Army put out statistics that indicate that only 9% of American youth are even interested in military service. So you're telling me I can make more money being a plumber than going to go risk my life fighting a war that I didn't even start?
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: What is moral fitness?
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: We have seen an increase in justice involvement among American youth. So those who have gotten into trouble for some type of misdemeanor or even felony and also some complicated factors with respect to the fact that different states have different laws regarding the use of marijuana.
--:-- Noel King: So if I am busted in high school for smoking weed, you know, out behind the gym, and I get in trouble with the school principal, but I'm not referred to the police. It's just, you know, it's an internal matter. Would that prevent me from getting into the Army?
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: It could raise a flag for your recruiter, yes.
--:-- Noel King: Wow. Okay. So you said physical fitness, moral fitness. What was the third one you mentioned?
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: Medical conditions. So that's something that we've seen change over time. Parents are more likely to enroll their children in some sort of counseling or medical intervention for things like ADHD at rates that we didn't necessarily see 20 or 30 years ago.
--:-- Noel King: I and almost everyone else in this committee could tell you a story about what we had to do to help some outstanding young man or woman overcome some supposedly disqualifying injury or condition. You know, maybe a 14 kid got prescribed you know a mind drug for depression when his parents are going through a divorce.
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: And five years later he had no indication whatsoever. The fact that individuals have a medical history where perhaps they been prescribed Adderall and that can be disqualifying for military service as well.
--:-- Noel King: It almost sounds like the recruitment process is out of step with the times, frankly.
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: So it's challenging because on the one hand, you do need individuals who are capable of meeting military requirements. The military, as you would expect, can be a really high-paced and stressful environment. And at the same time, trying to align the standards with where the general population is at is important.
--:-- Noel King: You also said that willingness to enroll in the Army seems to be declining.
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: Department of Defense traces survey data for 16 to 24-year-olds to get a sense of what military service or the appeal of military service is to American youth. We have seen this decrease in the propensity to serve.
--:-- Noel King: Part of that has to do with the lack of interaction that most Americans have with today's military.
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: Fifty years ago, in July of 1973, we transitioned the entire military from one that was mostly drafted to a more professional all-volunteer force, or an all-recruited force.
--:-- Noel King: Ever since Congress abolished the draft four years ago, the armed forces have been spending millions of dollars to attract recruits to the all-volunteer services.
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: Military service is no longer depicted as a patriotic sacrifice, but a desirable, even exclusive career.
--:-- Noel King: And in that period of time, the military also shrank because there were different requirements. We certainly didn't need a military that was as large as we saw in World War II.
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: And so over time, there are fewer and fewer veterans in the general population and people's communities.
--:-- Noel King: We also see the alignment of where bases are. They're mostly concentrated in the South. And even when they're not in the South, they tend to be in more remote areas.
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: So there's little interaction between the general population and those who are currently serving.
--:-- Noel King: We also see a shift over time in parents' beliefs about what a successful next step after high school is.
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: So the perceived marker of success now is going immediately from high school into college.
--:-- Noel King: And so that can be challenging for the military services when they're trying to recruit because they are competing with colleges and universities, as opposed to the message being it can be military service and education or military service and then education, as opposed to military service instead of an education.
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: Let's say, Kate, that the worst-case scenario happens this year and the Army again misses its recruiting mark by 15,000 recruits. The U.S. will still have over 400,000 soldiers.
--:-- Noel King: Can we really not get by with that many?
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: We have a very large army. Why does it need to be that big?
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: You know, the Army has to be prepared to operate in any environment that, you know, could potentially include the war in Russia and Ukraine, contingencies in the Indo-Pacific region.
--:-- Noel King: And so they're really thinking through how do we meet the absolute requirements that we have to keep the nation safe.
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: The United States military, each of the services are a closed promotion system. So essentially, the individuals that you have bringing in today, many careers last 20 years, which is when retirement kicks in, though there are people who serve longer than that.
--:-- Noel King: So if we look at our general officer corps, many of them have served about 26 to 28 years before they become a general officer.
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: And because it's a closed hiring system, we can't laterally bring in good leadership 20 years down the road from a different career path.
--:-- Noel King: We have to grow them internally in the military.
--:-- Kate Kuzminski: If the services miss their recruiting targets today, there are long-term effects on who becomes the leadership in those services.
--:-- Noel King: Coming up on Today Explained, we ask the Secretary of the Army about the thing that many young people say is keeping them from enlisting, and that is the Army's reputation.
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--:-- Noel King: It's almost fall, and that means it's time to cycle your wardrobe to the cold setting. Because while everyone loves a breezy summer outfit, let's be real. Layering is even more fun.
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--:-- Noel King: That's why Macy's Fall Fashion Guide has everything you need to piece together the perfect look for you.
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--:-- Noel King: Add a statement shoe to your collection, like the calf-hair loafers from Steve Madden.
--:-- Noel King: Or tap into your romantic side with flowy dresses from Cece and sheer pieces from INC.
--:-- Noel King: You can even throw in some textural layers for contrast, like a faux fur bomber jacket from Karl Lagerfeld Paris.
--:-- Noel King: Whether your old favorite sweater or coat is on its last threads, or you're just craving a new vibe to switch things up, Macy has got you covered this season.
--:-- Noel King: Find the perfect layering pieces for you by exploring the Macy Fall Fashion Style Guide Shop in or online at macy.com.
--:-- Noel King: It's Today Explained. I'm Noelle King.
--:-- Noel King: Earlier this week, I went with Today Explained producer and former U.S. Army Staff Sergeant Victoria Chamberlain to the Pentagon to meet the person who right now quite possibly thinks the most about the Army's recruiting problems.
--:-- Noel King: Madam Secretary, start by giving me your full name and tell me what you do.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: Christine Elizabeth Wormuth, and I'm the 25th Secretary of the Army.
--:-- Noel King: You started in this job in the spring of 2021. How much of your time is spent thinking about the challenges of recruitment?
--:-- Christine Wormuth: In the last year, I would say a good bit of my time is spent thinking about recruitment. It's our number one challenge. It's, you know, fundamental to the Army.
--:-- Noel King: If we're not large enough to do what we need to do for the President and the Secretary of Defense, that's a big problem.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: So I would say I spend probably a third of my time focused on it and talking about it and going out and trying to reintroduce the Army to the American public.
--:-- Noel King: How is that going?
--:-- Christine Wormuth: I think it's going well. I find when I go out and talk to audiences, for example, I gave a speech at a high school in Chicago. And the kinds of reactions I get, to me, underscore a lot of the findings that we've been getting through our research, which is just there are a lot of young Americans who really don't know very much about the military, much less the United States Army, and who I think have a lot of perceptions that we need to break through and give them some more ground truth so that they can form new opinions.
--:-- Noel King: What are those perceptions?
--:-- Christine Wormuth: What are you hearing that makes you think, oh dear, we've got to change the narrative if we want people to enlist?
--:-- Christine Wormuth: The top three obstacles that most young people have when they think about joining the Army is fear of death or injury, fear of psychological harm.
--:-- Noel King: So for example, you know, kids worry about PTSD. They hear and see headlines about suicide, for example, or sexual harassment.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: And then the third obstacle that a lot of young people have is just fear of leaving friends and family, you know, going away to something unknown.
--:-- Noel King: And I think those, you know, I get that kind of feedback when I talk to young people. So to me, it bears out a lot of the research that we're getting.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: Do you think there are some generational shifts here?
--:-- Noel King: I remember being in high school 20-plus years ago, and I remember there were kids who went and joined the Army. You didn't hear them talking about PTSD.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: I think that a lot of that is because the last 20 years, the United States military has been at war, you know, in the Middle East, in Afghanistan.
--:-- Noel King: You know, while the number of casualties coming out of those conflicts was much lower, say, than the Vietnam War, there were casualties, nevertheless.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: There were fatalities. And there were people coming back home with traumatic brain injuries from IEDs, for example.
--:-- Noel King: And frankly, there's also, you know, there have been a lot of movies about PTSD, things like The Hurt Locker.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: You know, the great Jennifer Lawrence, who is a fantastic actress, just made a new movie where she is a combat engineer and comes back and is dealing with traumatic brain injury.
--:-- Noel King: So that, I think there's been a lot of reinforcement of that messaging over the last 20 years.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: In a statement to the Associated Press last fall, you warned that if the Army's recruitment numbers don't improve, members of the National Guard and the Army Reserves will be put on active duty.
--:-- Noel King: There are around 475,000 active members of the U.S. Army, as I understand it. Why is this so urgent?
--:-- Christine Wormuth: I would say a couple of things about that. First of all, the Army is very, very busy, even when we're not at war.
--:-- Noel King: So, you know, the Army right now is about 50 percent of the overall United States military around the world.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: We are in 140 different countries. You know, so just Europe, for example, right now, 43,000 of the 100,000-odd, you know, U.S. military members in Europe are United States Army people.
--:-- Noel King: And then we're also in Africa, in Latin America, in the Middle East, for example.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: You know, we do a lot of exercises and we do a lot of working with the militaries of other countries around the world.
--:-- Noel King: So we're actually, you know, quite busy on any given day.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: And, of course, you know, if you have, say, 43,000 soldiers in Europe, you really need to have about a three-to-one ratio.
--:-- Noel King: For every soldier who's deployed, you need to have two back stateside who are either, you know, recovering, if you will, resetting from a deployment, and then another soldier who is training and getting ready to go back overseas and replace those soldiers.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: And if the Army, the active Army, continues to get a little bit smaller, what we may have to do periodically is call up members of the Guard or the Reserve to essentially substitute for the active duty in some of these overseas deployments.
--:-- Noel King: We did that quite a bit during, you know, the 20 years that we were in Iraq and Afghanistan.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: And I'm just saying that that's an option that we have to help us manage the risk of the active Army getting a little smaller.
--:-- Noel King: We know that Americans do enlist in the service at times of real national crisis, right? We saw this after 9-11. We certainly saw this after Pearl Harbor all those years ago.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: Do you think it takes that kind of crisis to, in a sense, convince people that they should join the Army, that they should be in the service?
--:-- Christine Wormuth: I just wonder if without that sense that America is under attack, for example, you lose the urgency.
--:-- Noel King: Well, the last thing I would want is to sort of hope for another attack on the homeland to solve our recruiting crisis.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: And I don't think it requires that. I think the key is what you said, is that young Americans need to perceive the dangers to the United States of America as a real threat.
--:-- Noel King: You know, I'm a child of the 80s. I grew up during sort of the end of the Cold War, you know, when our enemy was the Soviet Union.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: I remember, you know, doing nuclear bomb drills under my desk in school.
--:-- Noel King: But there was a sense of, you know, the United States has an enemy, needs to protect itself.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: And when everyone was sort of galvanized against the Soviets.
--:-- Noel King: And I think what we need to do is make sure that young people understand that we are once again I think facing a very very dangerous security environment.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: I mean I worked in the national security community for 30 years and this is the most dangerous security environment I ever seen.
--:-- Noel King: So I think that if we explain that to young Americans I think it will underscore to them again, that sense of purpose that is galvanizing, I think, towards military service.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: What is the threat? It's no longer Soviet Russia. What is it?
--:-- Christine Wormuth: I think it's twofold. One, I think the biggest challenge we have is China, which is a revisionist power, you know, which wants to change the rules, if you will, of the international system in a way that I think is very disadvantageous for democracy.
--:-- Noel King: And then, of course, you still have, you know, not communist Russia, but you still have a very acute threat, I think, which is, you know, amply illustrated by Putin deciding that Ukraine doesn't have the right to exist as a nation and going in and invading it.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: Again, another major power that wants to change the rules so that basically we go back to a Hobbesian state where the strong countries do what they can and the weak countries suffer what they must.
--:-- Noel King: The Wall Street Journal recently released the results of a poll they had taken asking Americans about a number of things, including how patriotic they are.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: So Americans, the Wall Street Journal found, are much less patriotic than they were in the 1990s.
--:-- Noel King: Patriotism is a very hard thing to define.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: But do you think a change in values such as patriotism is making people less likely to serve?
--:-- Christine Wormuth: When I saw those numbers, I wondered if there were two things happening there.
--:-- Noel King: One, there are a lot of polls that show that Americans, whether they're living in blue states or red states, are losing trust in institutions.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: You know, and the military, while we still are a highly trusted institution in an absolute sense, we have seen a decline in trust in the military as well.
--:-- Noel King: And so I wondered if that connected a little bit to the decline in patriotism.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: And the other thing I wondered about is, you know, I do think there's a very active conversation in our country about our history, about the legacy of slavery, about systemic racism.
--:-- Noel King: You know, there's a lot of discussion about this, and there's a lot more focus on the complexity of our national history.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: You know, I think the conversation around our nation's history is very, very different than the one that I was taught in schools.
--:-- Noel King: And I think, you know, I wonder if some young Americans are looking at the totality of our historical record and saying, I'm not proud of everything that the United States has done over the years.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: And I really want to encourage young people that even as they think about the complexities of our history to reflect on how much there is to be proud of in this country and hence, I think, remain feeling patriotic about the country.
--:-- Noel King: I will give you a piece of data that really surprised me. So as I understand it, the Army conducted a survey of young people asking them for their thoughts about the military.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: The results have not been made public, but a summary was provided to the Senate Armed Services Committee.
--:-- Noel King: 13% of respondents in that poll, ages 16 to 28, believe that women and minorities in the Army face discrimination.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: When you hear 13% believe they might face either racial or gender discrimination, what do you think?
--:-- Christine Wormuth: Well, I'm very, very familiar with that poll. And the methodology of the poll is complex. And so it isn't actually that 13% of young people thought that, you know, women and people of color would be discriminated against.
--:-- Noel King: But the methodology aside, I think what is notable about that is that that was, if you take away the top three reasons why people don't join the military, the things that I talked about before, fear of death and injury, fear of psychological harm, etc., the next biggest obstacle is feeling like the Army will put your life on hold, somehow, you know, keep you from going to college.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: And the concern about women, discrimination against women and minorities, was the third of the next three barriers.
--:-- Noel King: So it was a substantial barrier in the minds of some people.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: And I think, you know, again, I would imagine that that connects to, you know, news about, you know, the terrible tragedy of the murder of Vanessa Guillen at Fort Hood, for example.
--:-- Noel King: Or, you know, there are, you know, any number, unfortunately, of stories about sexual harassment and sexual assault in the military.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: And I think similarly, you, I mean, I remember there was a story here not too long ago of an Army guardsman was essentially, you know, assaulted and harassed by some police officers because he was a Black person.
--:-- Noel King: So I think, you know, when young people hear about those stories, they start thinking about what kind of experience will I have in the United States military.
--:-- Noel King: If the Army does not meet its recruiting goals and continues to not meet its recruiting goals, can you envision a future in which the United States must reinstate the draft?
--:-- Christine Wormuth: I don't see us reinstating the draft.
--:-- Noel King: I just, you know, A, I think there are many, many reasons why the all-volunteer force is superior to a military that's built on the draft.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: Not to mention, I think that would be, you know, politically extremely unpopular with all sorts of Americans around the country.
--:-- Noel King: But I do get concerned, you know, we do need a sufficiently large army to be able to do all of the things that the president needs us to do.
--:-- Christine Wormuth: So I do think we have got to find a way to reintroduce the army to the American public and turn around our recruiting challenges.
--:-- Noel King: But I don't, and I think that's going to take us a few years to do, but I don't see us going to a draft.
--:-- Noel King: That was Secretary of the Army Christine Wormuth.
--:-- Noel King: Today's episode was produced by Victoria Chamberlain. It was edited by Matthew Collette and engineered by Paul Robert Mouncey. It was fact-checked by Laura Bullard. I'm Noelle King. It's Today Explained. Thank you.
