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--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Welcome to Today Explained. I'm Sean Rameswaram.
--:-- Ian Millhiser: Thanks for having me on the show.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Today, the Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health. You cover the Supreme Court for Vox. Let's start with the basics. What happened today?
--:-- Ian Millhiser: Well, the court heard arguments in a case that could potentially overrule Roe v. Wade. The case is about a Mississippi law that bans abortions after 15 weeks.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And what's the significance of this law?
--:-- Ian Millhiser: The law is significant because it's a pre-viability ban. In other words, it bans abortions before the fetus is viable outside the womb.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And what's the current state of Roe v. Wade?
--:-- Ian Millhiser: Roe v. Wade established a constitutional right to abortion. However, in Planned Parenthood v. Casey, the court established a standard that says states can't ban abortions before viability.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But the Mississippi law does exactly that. So, what's the court's likely outcome?
--:-- Ian Millhiser: Based on what I heard today, I think the most likely outcome is that Roe v. Wade is doomed. The court's conservative justices seemed to be leaning towards overruling Roe.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And what about the other justices? Did they seem to be leaning one way or the other?
--:-- Ian Millhiser: Well, Chief Justice Roberts seemed to be signaling that he thinks using this case as a vehicle to overrule Roe is too far. However, the court's right flank, including Justices Thomas, Alito, and Gorsuch, seemed to be leaning towards overruling Roe.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And what about the other justices? Did they seem to be leaning one way or the other?
--:-- Ian Millhiser: Justice Barrett asked a lot of questions about adoption, and it seemed like she was trying to downplay the importance of Roe. Justice Kavanaugh also seemed to be leaning towards overruling Roe.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So, what are the possible outcomes of this case?
--:-- Ian Millhiser: There are four possible outcomes. The least likely outcome is that the court strikes down the Mississippi law. One possible outcome is that the court takes a more incremental approach and attacks abortion rights. A third option is that the court overrules Roe v. Wade. And the fourth option is that the court issues a dishonest opinion that effectively overrules Roe without saying so.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And what would happen if the court overrules Roe v. Wade?
--:-- Ian Millhiser: If the court overrules Roe, it would mean that states can do whatever they want on abortion. Many states have laws that would go into effect immediately, including laws that ban abortion outright.
--:-- Sean Rameswarser: And what about the Texas abortion case? How does that fit into all of this?
--:-- Ian Millhiser: The Texas case is significant because it's about a law that allows anyone to sue anyone who gets an abortion after six weeks. The stakes in that case are enormous, and it could have implications for the entire country.
--:-- Sean Rameswarser: And what about the Supreme Court's credibility? This is an unpopular court, and there's a risk that they could drop a decision that some state refuses to comply with.
--:-- Ian Millhiser: That's a very real risk. Justice Sotomayor seemed to be suggesting that the court's credibility is at risk if they overrule Roe without a good reason.
--:-- Sean Rameswarser: Ian Millhiser, thanks for explaining this complex issue to us.
--:-- Ian Millhiser: Thanks for having me on the show.
--:-- Sean Rameswarser: Today's show was produced by Victoria Chamberlain with help from Hady Mawajdeh, edited by Matt Collette, engineered by Efim Shapiro, fact-checked by Laura Bullard, and hosted by me, Sean Rameswaram.
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--:-- Sean Rameswarser: Support Today, Explained by making a financial contribution to Vox. Visit vox.com to learn more.
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