--:-- [Theme music fades out]
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Welcome to Today, Explained. I'm Sean Rameswaram.
--:-- Noel King: And I'm Noel King.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Today, we're talking about the presidential election. Vox's Andrew Prokop is here to explain how Joe Biden or President Trump could win 270 electoral votes.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Thanks for having me on the show.
--:-- Noel King: So, let's start with the basics. The presidential election is not just about the national popular vote, but about the Electoral College. Can you explain how that works?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Sure. The Electoral College is a system where each state gets a certain number of electoral votes based on its population. The candidate who wins the most votes in a state gets all of that state's electoral votes, except in Maine and Nebraska, which allocate their electoral votes proportionally.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And what's the magic number we're always hearing about?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: The magic number is 270. A candidate needs to win at least 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
--:-- Noel King: Okay, so let's talk about the key swing states. Can you name them for us?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: There are six key swing states that are really going to decide this election. They are Florida, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and North Carolina.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And what about the other states? Are they just going to sit on the sidelines?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: No, there are 14 other states that could potentially be crucial in this election. Some of them are more likely to go one way or the other, but they could still play a role in determining the outcome.
--:-- Noel King: So, let's talk about the math. If Biden wins Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, does he need to win any of the other states?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: No, he doesn't. He's already over the 270 threshold.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And what about Trump's strategy? Is he trying to win over some of these other states?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Yes, Trump is trying to win over some of the other states, like Nevada, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Maine. But the polls show that these states are a bit out of reach for him.
--:-- Noel King: Okay, so what's the worst-case scenario for Biden? What if Trump wins some of these other states?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Well, if Trump wins some of the other states, it could make it harder for Biden to reach the 270 threshold. But Biden could still win if he holds on to Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And what about the possibility of a tie? Could we see a 269-269 tie?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Yes, it's possible. If the two candidates end up with 269 electoral votes each, the election would go to the House of Representatives to decide.
--:-- Noel King: That's a nightmare scenario. But what about the possibility of Trump declaring victory prematurely and refusing to concede?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: That's a possibility. Trump has been sowing the seeds of doubt about the election process, and it's possible that he could try to claim victory before all the votes are counted.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And what about the role of the state legislatures in this process? Could they potentially intervene in the counting of the votes?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Yes, the state legislatures could potentially intervene in the counting of the votes. In Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, the state legislatures are controlled by Republicans, which could create a problem if Biden wins those states.
--:-- Noel King: Okay, so what's the takeaway from all of this? What should we be expecting on election day?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: We should be expecting a long and potentially contentious process. It could take weeks or even months to determine the winner of the election.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Thanks, Andrew, for explaining all of this to us.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Thanks for having me on the show.
--:-- [Theme music starts playing]
--:-- Noel King: And that's it for today's show. Thanks for listening.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: If you want to learn more about the election, check out our website, vox.com.
--:-- Noel King: And if you're still trying to figure out your voting plan, head to vox.com/vote for lots of helpful information.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Stay safe, and we'll see you on the other side.
--:-- [Theme music continues to play]
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Support for today's show comes from Adio. Adio is an AI-native customer relationship management system built specifically for the next era of companies.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Adio takes less than a minute to set up, and within seconds, you'll have your email and calendars synced.
--:-- Noel King: You'll see all your relationships in a fully-fledged platform, all enriched with actionable data.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And you can build AI-powered automations and use its research agent to tackle some of your most complex processes so that you can focus on what matters, building your company.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You can join industry leaders like Flatfile, Replicate, Modal, and so much more. Go to attio.com/slash todayexplained to get 15% off your first year.
--:-- Noel King: Not all journalism is the same. Take The Guardian. Our coverage has something unique. Fierce independence. Nobody owns us or tells us what we can and can say.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So we're free to report the whole picture. We connect what's happening in Washington to the rest of the globe, expose corruption wherever we find it, and give fresh perspective on everything from wellness and soccer to culture, the climate, and more.
--:-- Noel King: Read, watch, and listen to The Guardian for free at theguardian.com.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: 2020, 2020, 2020.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Before the break, you were talking about a nightmarish scenario where these two septuagenarians, Trump and the House of Representatives, decide sometime in January, making an already eternal election even longer.
--:-- Noel King: But there are other potential unpredictable nightmares in this unpredictable year, n'est-ce pas?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: This, of course, is an unusual year, the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, a year of unprecedented levels of mail voting.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And it's also a year in which there is a new phenomenon when it comes to who is choosing to vote by mail versus who is choosing to vote in person.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: It's overwhelmingly Democrats who are more likely to vote by mail, and Republicans and supporters of Trump have been telling pollsters all year that they are more likely to show up in person to vote.
--:-- Noel King: And this is probably because Donald Trump has spent months disparaging the idea of mail voting.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Thousands and thousands of people sitting in somebody's living room signing ballots all over the place. No, I think that mail-in voting is a terrible thing.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Accusing it of being unreliable, saying there is fraud with mail votings.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And there's no evidence of widespread mail voting fraud. Obviously, weird things could happen with a couple of ballots here and there.
--:-- Noel King: But the bigger picture is that mail voting is a time-tested and reliable system of voting that's been used by several states.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And happens to be the president's method of voting of choice. Because I'm allowed to.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yes, Trump himself seems to think that his own mail vote submitted in Florida will be safe.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: So something smells rotten about all this, basically.
--:-- Noel King: Trump has been sowing the seeds of doubt. And there are some theories about what he might be up to.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Which is that on election night, it's going to take in certain states a long time to count these mail ballots.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: They just take longer to count than in-person votes because you have to look at the envelope.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: You have to check the voters' signature to make sure that they're registered to vote in the district.
--:-- Noel King: You need to sort it. You need to open the envelope. You need to then put the ballot in the ballot machine.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And this is when you're talking about millions and millions of mail ballots, that takes time.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And the upshot is that certain states have really dropped the ball on preparing for this.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Most notably, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. You remember those three. Very crucial part of the core swing state battleground.
--:-- Noel King: And all three states have Republican legislatures and all three states have refused to allow a significant window of time before the election where that difficult paperwork of mail ballots can be done so that ballots can be approved or rejected and gotten ready for the count before Election Day itself or right beforehand.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are basically near certain to be counting their mail ballots very slowly.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And if those mail ballots are overwhelmingly Democratic, then the in-person ballots are going to be counted first.
--:-- Noel King: And it's going to look like Trump is winning in those states. If you just look at the votes that come in as they are counted.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And President Trump appears to be well aware of this.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: He sent a tweet last week that said, big problems, discrepancies with mail-in ballots all over the USA must have final total on November 3rd.
--:-- Noel King: And Twitter flagged the tweet for disinformation because they said mail voting is safe and secure.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: But you see what he's trying to do there. He says, must have final total on November 3rd.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Because he expects in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, those very important states, the count will show him ahead on November 3rd because they're going to be so slow at counting the mail ballots that will favor Democrats.
--:-- Noel King: So to be clear here, the very specific nightmare we're talking about is a ton of votes are cast by mail in these big three states we've been talking about Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and a lot of those mail-in ballots are for Joe Biden.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: But a lot of the in-person voting on November 3rd tomorrow is for Donald Trump.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And Donald Trump refuses to wait to hear about the results from the mail-in ballots, which take longer to count and declares victory tomorrow before knowing the full picture.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Yes.
--:-- Noel King: What happens then?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Technically, it's up to state election officials to count these votes, and the count is not going to necessarily stop just because Donald Trump wants it to stop.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But here we have to go back again to the Electoral College.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And the Electoral College is made up of actual people. They are 538 people technically chosen by state legislatures.
--:-- Noel King: Now, the state legislatures, they just choose the people that are nominated by the party who wins in their state generally.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Like if Biden wins in Pennsylvania, then the 20 Democratic electors that the Biden campaign wants will be named the electors from Pennsylvania.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Got it.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: But what happens if there's a dispute? Then again, it seems that the dispute might be able to be settled by state legislatures.
--:-- Noel King: And in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, those state legislatures are controlled by Republicans.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Then this sort of thing might go to the courts.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And there was an interesting decision last week where two Supreme Court justices appointed by Trump, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh, made clear that they believe state legislatures have preeminent power over how elections in their state work.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: We don't know how, you know, the fuller Supreme Court thinks about this, but, you know, it's a little ominous potentially that if there are shenanigans pulled off by these state legislatures controlled by Republicans in states where Biden has legitimately won, but Trump is disputing that victory due to mail ballots.
--:-- Noel King: What if those state legislatures go along with Trump?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And what if the courts agree to stand back and let it happen? Because, you know, it's really up to the state legislatures and and it's not up to the people in the end.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Right. We covered this on the show last week with our colleague Ian Millhiser.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: It seemed like at least a few of the conservative justices were saying that elections need a clear ending and that ending should be tomorrow, November 3rd.
--:-- Noel King: And we should point out that this is completely ahistorical and, frankly, bizarre.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: It regularly takes states weeks to actually certify their election totals.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: There's no reason by law that the election has to be decided by election night.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: It's simply not the case. In fact, if it takes longer to actually count votes, then you have to count every vote that's legitimately cast according to the rules is generally how things are supposed to work.
--:-- Noel King: And this is all just one more nightmare we'd have to deal with.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And there are potentially more.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Well, let me maybe alleviate a bit of this nightmare scenario first.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: So basically the gist for this total nightmare scenario is that it can only really work for Trump if the election comes down to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan.
--:-- Noel King: Biden can prevent that from happening by winning in the states where we are going to get a pretty good idea what the result will be on election night or soon afterward.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: It is totally possible polls show Biden currently ahead in Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And so if Biden wins a few of those states, then he's going to be pretty clearly the presumptive winner of the election.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Whether he actually gets over the magic number of 270 or whether he has to wait a bit for, you know, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan to finish their count will depend exactly on which states flip into his column.
--:-- Noel King: But if Trump does have a plan to contest the results in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, that would only fly if Biden hasn't won states like Florida or North Carolina, which would pretty clearly position him as the winner.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: What about the nightmare we presently live in on the 2nd of November 2020, the one where Donald Trump hasn't even lost this election yet and he's already a sore loser, where he might declare victory prematurely and, you know, doesn't concede, where he doesn't commit to the peaceful transfer of power, you know, all of these things he's been saying for the past few months.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: That's a possibility. Trump has been sowing the seeds of doubt about the election process, and it's possible that he could try to claim victory before all the votes are counted.
--:-- Noel King: And what if he loses and just doesn't go?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: If Trump just says, I won't accept the election, I don't see how he could pull that off.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: He needs a story to sell. He needs a narrative. He needs an excuse.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And so he's been trying to float, you know, problems with mail ballots as that excuse.
--:-- Noel King: But I don't know. There are a lot of Republican-controlled states that use mail ballots, and they know that they are basically safe and fine.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And so that's kind of a tough sell.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Usually when Trump does get to the brink with this stuff, he is often convinced to back down.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: We saw that, for instance, with Trump wanted to fire Robert Mueller.
--:-- Noel King: And for some reason, he didn't. He let Mueller finish his investigation because he basically got word from the Republican Party that they wouldn't support, that that was too far.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: He should just let the investigation play out.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And there are various other things that Trump has tried to do that the party has signaled they won't go along with.
--:-- Noel King: Now, there are other things that they have gone along with.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So the question is which category this hypothetical disputed election would fall into.
--:-- Noel King: Okay, so the election's tomorrow, and there are three states that are going to be closely watched, and those are Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: There are six states that will be essential, and those are those three plus Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Then there are 14 states that could play sort of this critical role.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: But most of all, it sounds like we should just all be prepared for election day to maybe be election week and hopefully not election month.
--:-- Noel King: But this is a pandemic, and it's going to take time.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Or it may not. The result could be pretty clear on election night.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We just don't know. It depends how close it is when those votes start actually being counted.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: It could take weeks. It could take a few days. Or we could learn the results on election night.
--:-- Noel King: That is still a possibility.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So anything could happen.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Exactly.
--:-- Noel King: Well, Andrew, we'll see you on the other side.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Thanks, Andrew, for explaining all of this to us.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Thanks for having me on the show.
--:-- Noel King: And if you want to learn more about the election, check out our website, vox.com.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And if you're still trying to figure out your voting plan, head to vox.com/vote for lots of helpful information.
--:-- Noel King: Stay safe, and we'll see you on the other side.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Support for today's show comes from Adio.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Adio is an AI-native customer relationship management system built specifically for the next era of companies.
--:-- Noel King: Adio takes less than a minute to set up, and within seconds, you'll have your email and calendars synced.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You'll see all your relationships in a fully-fledged platform, all enriched with actionable data.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And you can build AI-powered automations and use its research agent to tackle some of your most complex processes so that you can focus on what matters, building your company.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You can join industry leaders like Flatfile, Replicate, Modal, and so much more. Go to attio.com/slash todayexplained to get 15% off your first year.
--:-- Noel King: Not all journalism is the same. Take The Guardian.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Our coverage has something unique. Fierce independence. Nobody owns us or tells us what we can and can say.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So we're free to report the whole picture.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: We connect what's happening in Washington to the rest of the globe, expose corruption wherever we find it, and give fresh perspective on everything from wellness and soccer to culture, the climate, and more.
--:-- Noel King: Read, watch, and listen to The Guardian for free at theguardian.com.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: 2020, 2020, 2020.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Before the break, you were talking about a nightmarish scenario where these two septuagenarians, Trump and the House of Representatives, decide sometime in January, making an already eternal election even longer.
--:-- Noel King: But there are other potential unpredictable nightmares in this unpredictable year, n'est-ce pas?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: This, of course, is an unusual year, the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, a year of unprecedented levels of mail voting.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And it's also a year in which there is a new phenomenon when it comes to who is choosing to vote by mail versus who is choosing to vote in person.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: It's overwhelmingly Democrats who are more likely to vote by mail, and Republicans and supporters of Trump have been telling pollsters all year that they are more likely to show up in person to vote.
--:-- Noel King: And this is probably because Donald Trump has spent months disparaging the idea of mail voting.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Thousands and thousands of people sitting in somebody's living room signing ballots all over the place. No, I think that mail-in voting is a terrible thing.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Accusing it of being unreliable, saying there is fraud with mail votings.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And there's no evidence of widespread mail voting fraud. Obviously, weird things could happen with a couple of ballots here and there.
--:-- Noel King: But the bigger picture is that mail voting is a time-tested and reliable system of voting that's been used by several states.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And happens to be the president's method of voting of choice. Because I'm allowed to.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yes, Trump himself seems to think that his own mail vote submitted in Florida will be safe.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: So something smells rotten about all this, basically.
--:-- Noel King: Trump has been sowing the seeds of doubt. And there are some theories about what he might be up to.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Which is that on election night, it's going to take in certain states a long time to count these mail ballots.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: They just take longer to count than in-person votes because you have to look at the envelope.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: You have to check the voters' signature to make sure that they're registered to vote in the district.
--:-- Noel King: You need to sort it. You need to open the envelope. You need to then put the ballot in the ballot machine.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And this is when you're talking about millions and millions of mail ballots, that takes time.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And the upshot is that certain states have really dropped the ball on preparing for this.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Most notably, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. You remember those three. Very crucial part of the core swing state battleground.
--:-- Noel King: And all three states have Republican legislatures and all three states have refused to allow a significant window of time before the election where that difficult paperwork of mail ballots can be done so that ballots can be approved or rejected and gotten ready for the count before Election Day itself or right beforehand.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are basically near certain to be counting their mail ballots very slowly.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And if those mail ballots are overwhelmingly Democratic, then the in-person ballots are going to be counted first.
--:-- Noel King: And it's going to look like Trump is winning in those states. If you just look at the votes that come in as they are counted.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And President Trump appears to be well aware of this.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: He sent a tweet last week that said, big problems, discrepancies with mail-in ballots all over the USA must have final total on November 3rd.
--:-- Noel King: And Twitter flagged the tweet for disinformation because they said mail voting is safe and secure.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: But you see what he's trying to do there. He says, must have final total on November 3rd.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Because he expects in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, those very important states, the count will show him ahead on November 3rd because they're going to be so slow at counting the mail ballots that will favor Democrats.
--:-- Noel King: So to be clear here, the very specific nightmare we're talking about is a ton of votes are cast by mail in these big three states we've been talking about Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and a lot of those mail-in ballots are for Joe Biden.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: But a lot of the in-person voting on November 3rd tomorrow is for Donald Trump.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And Donald Trump refuses to wait to hear about the results from the mail-in ballots, which take longer to count and declares victory tomorrow before knowing the full picture.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Yes.
--:-- Noel King: What happens then?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Technically, it's up to state election officials to count these votes, and the count is not going to necessarily stop just because Donald Trump wants it to stop.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: But here we have to go back again to the Electoral College.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And the Electoral College is made up of actual people. They are 538 people technically chosen by state legislatures.
--:-- Noel King: Now, the state legislatures, they just choose the people that are nominated by the party who wins in their state generally.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Like if Biden wins in Pennsylvania, then the 20 Democratic electors that the Biden campaign wants will be named the electors from Pennsylvania.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Got it.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: But what happens if there's a dispute? Then again, it seems that the dispute might be able to be settled by state legislatures.
--:-- Noel King: And in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, those state legislatures are controlled by Republicans.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Then this sort of thing might go to the courts.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And there was an interesting decision last week where two Supreme Court justices appointed by Trump, Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh, made clear that they believe state legislatures have preeminent power over how elections in their state work.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: We don't know how, you know, the fuller Supreme Court thinks about this, but, you know, it's a little ominous potentially that if there are shenanigans pulled off by these state legislatures controlled by Republicans in states where Biden has legitimately won, but Trump is disputing that victory due to mail ballots.
--:-- Noel King: What if those state legislatures go along with Trump?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And what if the courts agree to stand back and let it happen? Because, you know, it's really up to the state legislatures and and it's not up to the people in the end.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Right. We covered this on the show last week with our colleague Ian Millhiser.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: It seemed like at least a few of the conservative justices were saying that elections need a clear ending and that ending should be tomorrow, November 3rd.
--:-- Noel King: And we should point out that this is completely ahistorical and, frankly, bizarre.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: It regularly takes states weeks to actually certify their election totals.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: There's no reason by law that the election has to be decided by election night.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: It's simply not the case. In fact, if it takes longer to actually count votes, then you have to count every vote that's legitimately cast according to the rules is generally how things are supposed to work.
--:-- Noel King: And this is all just one more nightmare we'd have to deal with.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And there are potentially more.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Well, let me maybe alleviate a bit of this nightmare scenario first.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: So basically the gist for this total nightmare scenario is that it can only really work for Trump if the election comes down to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan.
--:-- Noel King: Biden can prevent that from happening by winning in the states where we are going to get a pretty good idea what the result will be on election night or soon afterward.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: It is totally possible polls show Biden currently ahead in Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And so if Biden wins a few of those states, then he's going to be pretty clearly the presumptive winner of the election.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Whether he actually gets over the magic number of 270 or whether he has to wait a bit for, you know, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan to finish their count will depend exactly on which states flip into his column.
--:-- Noel King: But if Trump does have a plan to contest the results in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, that would only fly if Biden hasn't won states like Florida or North Carolina, which would pretty clearly position him as the winner.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: What about the nightmare we presently live in on the 2nd of November 2020, the one where Donald Trump hasn't even lost this election yet and he's already a sore loser, where he might declare victory prematurely and, you know, doesn't concede, where he doesn't commit to the peaceful transfer of power, you know, all of these things he's been saying for the past few months.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: That's a possibility. Trump has been sowing the seeds of doubt about the election process, and it's possible that he could try to claim victory before all the votes are counted.
--:-- Noel King: And what if he loses and just doesn't go?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: If Trump just says, I won't accept the election, I don't see how he could pull that off.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: He needs a story to sell. He needs a narrative. He needs an excuse.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And so he's been trying to float, you know, problems with mail ballots as that excuse.
--:-- Noel King: But I don't know. There are a lot of Republican-controlled states that use mail ballots, and they know that they are basically safe and fine.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And so that's kind of a tough sell.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Usually when Trump does get to the brink with this stuff, he is often convinced to back down.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: We saw that, for instance, with Trump wanted to fire Robert Mueller.
--:-- Noel King: And for some reason, he didn't. He let Mueller finish his investigation because he basically got word from the Republican Party that they wouldn't support, that that was too far.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: He should just let the investigation play out.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And there are various other things that Trump has tried to do that the party has signaled they won't go along with.
--:-- Noel King: Now, there are other things that they have gone along with.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So the question is which category this hypothetical disputed election would fall into.
--:-- Noel King: Okay, so the election's tomorrow, and there are three states that are going to be closely watched, and those are Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: There are six states that will be essential, and those are those three plus Florida, North Carolina, and Arizona.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Then there are 14 states that could play sort of this critical role.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: But most of all, it sounds like we should just all be prepared for election day to maybe be election week and hopefully not election month.
--:-- Noel King: But this is a pandemic, and it's going to take time.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Or it may not. The result could be pretty clear on election night.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: We just don't know. It depends how close it is when those votes start actually being counted.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: It could take weeks. It could take a few days. Or we could learn the results on election night.
--:-- Noel King: That is still a possibility.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So anything could happen.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Exactly.
--:-- Noel King: Well, Andrew, we'll see you on the other side.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Thanks, Andrew, for explaining all of this to us.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Thanks for having me on the show.
--:-- Noel King: And if you want to learn more about the election, check out our website, vox.com.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And if you're still trying to figure out your voting plan, head to vox.com/vote for lots of helpful information.
--:-- Noel King: Stay safe, and we'll see you on the other side.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Support for today's show comes from Adio.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Adio is an AI-native customer relationship management system built specifically for the next era of companies.
--:-- Noel King: Adio takes less than a minute to set up, and within seconds, you'll have your email and calendars synced.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You'll see all your relationships in a fully-fledged platform, all enriched with actionable data.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And you can build AI-powered automations and use its research agent to tackle some of your most complex processes so that you can focus on what matters, building your company.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: You can join industry leaders like Flatfile, Replicate, Modal, and so much more. Go to attio.com/slash todayexplained to get 15% off your first year.
--:-- Noel King: Not all journalism is the same. Take The Guardian.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Our coverage has something unique. Fierce independence. Nobody owns us or tells us what we can and can say.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So we're free to report the whole picture.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: We connect what's happening in Washington to the rest of the globe, expose corruption wherever we find it, and give fresh perspective on everything from wellness and soccer to culture, the climate, and more.
--:-- Noel King: Read, watch, and listen to The Guardian for free at theguardian.com.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: 2020, 2020, 2020.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Before the break, you were talking about a nightmarish scenario where these two septuagenarians, Trump and the House of Representatives, decide sometime in January, making an already eternal election even longer.
--:-- Noel King: But there are other potential unpredictable nightmares in this unpredictable year, n'est-ce pas?
--:-- Andrew Prokop: This, of course, is an unusual year, the year of the COVID-19 pandemic, a year of unprecedented levels of mail voting.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And it's also a year in which there is a new phenomenon when it comes to who is choosing to vote by mail versus who is choosing to vote in person.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: It's overwhelmingly Democrats who are more likely to vote by mail, and Republicans and supporters of Trump have been telling pollsters all year that they are more likely to show up in person to vote.
--:-- Noel King: And this is probably because Donald Trump has spent months disparaging the idea of mail voting.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Thousands and thousands of people sitting in somebody's living room signing ballots all over the place. No, I think that mail-in voting is a terrible thing.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Accusing it of being unreliable, saying there is fraud with mail votings.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And there's no evidence of widespread mail voting fraud. Obviously, weird things could happen with a couple of ballots here and there.
--:-- Noel King: But the bigger picture is that mail voting is a time-tested and reliable system of voting that's been used by several states.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And happens to be the president's method of voting of choice. Because I'm allowed to.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: Yes, Trump himself seems to think that his own mail vote submitted in Florida will be safe.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: So something smells rotten about all this, basically.
--:-- Noel King: Trump has been sowing the seeds of doubt. And there are some theories about what he might be up to.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Which is that on election night, it's going to take in certain states a long time to count these mail ballots.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: They just take longer to count than in-person votes because you have to look at the envelope.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: You have to check the voters' signature to make sure that they're registered to vote in the district.
--:-- Noel King: You need to sort it. You need to open the envelope. You need to then put the ballot in the ballot machine.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And this is when you're talking about millions and millions of mail ballots, that takes time.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And the upshot is that certain states have really dropped the ball on preparing for this.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: Most notably, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania. You remember those three. Very crucial part of the core swing state battleground.
--:-- Noel King: And all three states have Republican legislatures and all three states have refused to allow a significant window of time before the election where that difficult paperwork of mail ballots can be done so that ballots can be approved or rejected and gotten ready for the count before Election Day itself or right beforehand.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: So Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are basically near certain to be counting their mail ballots very slowly.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: And if those mail ballots are overwhelmingly Democratic, then the in-person ballots are going to be counted first.
--:-- Noel King: And it's going to look like Trump is winning in those states. If you just look at the votes that come in as they are counted.
--:-- Sean Rameswaram: And President Trump appears to be well aware of this.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: He sent a tweet last week that said, big problems, discrepancies with mail-in ballots all over the USA must have final total on November 3rd.
--:-- Noel King: And Twitter flagged the tweet for disinformation because they said mail voting is safe and secure.
--:-- Andrew Prokop: But you see what he's trying to do there. He says, must have final total on November
