--:-- Noel King: Welcome to Today Explained. I'm Noel King.
--:-- Noel King: The Islamist militant network, ISIS, was looking to make a statement when it attacked a concert hall in the Moscow suburbs late last week. The audience inside just arriving for a rock concert when they heard the gunfire erupt. ISIS took credit. An affiliate of the Islamic State group says it was behind the attack. But when Vladimir Putin emerged a day later, he ignored ISIS and he blamed Ukraine.
--:-- Noel King: Then, yesterday, he backtracked just a little bit. Listen carefully. The bloody attack was committed by Islamists from the Islamic State Organization, which is banned in Russia. We know who committed this crime against Russia and its people. We want to know who ordered it.
--:-- Noel King: Putin is looking for excuses for his war in Ukraine. It doesn't change the fact that he now has a very real ISIS problem. Do the rest of us too? That's coming up on Today Explained.
--:-- Noel King: Support for Today Explained comes from the FIFA World Cup, of all things. The FIFA World Cup 26 is coming to North America next summer. It is the ultimate celebration of sports and culture. You can get closer to the beautiful game with a hospitality package, closer to the action, the best seats, the best suites, closer to match day and that world-class food and that world-class entertainment, closer to the experience of a lifetime. Book a hospitality package at fifaworldcup.com slash hospitality.
--:-- Noel King: And listen to The Guardian for free at theguardian.com. Сегодня и что оно означает. This is Today Explained. The attack on the Crocus City Concert Hall happened late on Friday. It took 19 hours for Vladimir Putin to say anything. The first response came a day after the attack, Saturday, in an address to the nation.
--:-- Noel King: All the four perpetrators were directly involved who were gunning people down, killing people. They were found and apprehended. Pyotr Sauer is a Russia correspondent for The Guardian. He's been reporting on how Putin initially blamed not ISIS, which had claimed a responsibility, but Ukraine.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: Putin said that it looked like Ukraine might have played a role in this, which seems quite bizarre given that ISIS, the Islamic state, has claimed the deadly attack.
--:-- Noel King: But Putin in his address, he said that the four shooters who were arrested were on the way to Ukraine where the Ukrainian side, quote-unquote, had a window prepared for the shooters.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: We have data that suggests that they were about to be moved towards the territory of Ukraine by those in Ukraine.
--:-- Noel King: Putin didn't outright say that Ukraine was responsible for the attack, but it became clear that he's looking for a Ukrainian angle and a way to blame Ukraine for this horrible attack.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: I saw this language elsewhere. Ukraine had a window for them. What does that mean? Well, no one knows exactly what Putin meant.
--:-- Noel King: It seems like he suggested that the Ukrainian authorities or someone on the Ukrainian side helped plan this attack and that, you know, they were waiting for the four attacker shooters to cross the border with Ukraine and they would have a safe space there.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: I think it's important to stress there's no evidence for any of this, of course. And, you know, Russia's yet to present any evidence that Ukraine is linked to the attack.
--:-- Noel King: OK, how does Ukraine respond to Vladimir Putin's allegation?
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: So, you know, we've seen multiple Ukrainian officials rejecting the claim. President Zelensky himself, in very strong language, called Putin a liar.
--:-- Noel King: You know, he said, you know, of course, we had nothing to do with this horrible attack.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: He actually called him a bastard. So quite strong, angry language from the Ukrainian side.
--:-- Noel King: What happened in Moscow? It's obvious that both Putin and other scums are trying to shift responsibility on someone else. They always have the same methods.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: It has already happened. I think in Ukraine, people believe that Russia will try to use this atrocity, this horrible event, to further escalate the war in Ukraine.
--:-- Noel King: We've seen some of the strongest strikes, biggest strikes on Ukraine since the attack on Friday. Russian missiles shelled Ukrainian cities. Air raid sirens sounded in Kiev after a wave of Russian missile strikes against Ukraine on Sunday.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: Residents made their way into subway stations to seek shelter.
--:-- Noel King: I think it's important to stress as well in Russian media, everyone is also pointing to Ukraine as if Ukraine somehow orchestrated this attack.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: OK, so Vladimir Putin is taking one line. The Russian media is falling in line behind Vladimir Putin.
--:-- Noel King: And then where this gets really interesting is that four men were actually caught. Four men were caught. Russia has charged them with terrorism. They appeared in court.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: What is the story of these men? What do we know about them?
--:-- Noel King: We don't know that much yet. We know they're from Tajikistan. That's a Central Asian republic. There are many Tajik migrants living in Russia.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: We know that ISIS has claimed the attack, a specific branch of ISIS called ISIS-K, which is active in Afghanistan and has a history of actually recruiting Central Asian nationals and also Central Asian migrants from Russia.
--:-- Noel King: So this is what we know. We've seen the four suspects in court. It was clear that they have been tortured by the Russian security services.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: Videos have emerged on social media, suggesting some of the group were tortured while in custody. One of them brought in directly from hospital in a wheelchair.
--:-- Noel King: These videos have been spread by Russian security services on Telegram.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: In one instance, we've seen Russian security services cutting off the ear of one of the suspects.
--:-- Noel King: And another picture we've seen one of the suspects being electrocuted.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: So of course any statements these suspects will give you know we should definitely question the authenticity and truth of these statements because they could be given under duress under torture.
--:-- Noel King: At the same time it does seem like these four suspects were the four men the four shooters who were involved in the attack but I think their confessions will be and everything they say will have this big taint of of torture hanging over it.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: What is ISIS problem with Russia? What the fight Yeah so I think a lot of people realize that Russia is waging several wars against ISIS across at least two continents.
--:-- Noel King: First of all Russia in 2015 came in to support President Assad in Syria and helped the Assad regime to survive against ISIS.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: And it keeps on bombing ISIS in several places in Syria. Russia is also involved in a war against ISIS in sub-Saharan Africa, in countries like Mali and Burkina Faso.
--:-- Noel King: I believe that bringing Russian soldiers to our country could be a positive step towards addressing the insecurity we have been experiencing since 2015.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: If these soldiers come to assist us, I see no problem with that.
--:-- Noel King: Russia is seen by ISIS, by the global ISIS, as a big enemy. It's also part of the Western Christian statehood.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: Russia has a long history of oppression, of Muslim majority republics in the northern caucuses.
--:-- Noel King: Russia has fought ISIS in Syria and Iraq. So Russia is in their crosshairs.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: And specifically with ISIS-K, ISIS-K has been the one cell that has been able to stage several very bloody attacks, for example, in Iran and other places outside of Europe.
--:-- Noel King: So for ISIS and for ISIS-K, Russia is sort of this longstanding enemy, really.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: And if you look at their propaganda, a lot of it has been aimed at Russia as well.
--:-- Noel King: But I think many in the West, I think many in Russia just completely didn't realize this factor.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: Let me ask you something. So in 2015, there was an ISIS attack in France, right, on a concert at the Bataclan.
--:-- Noel King: There was another ISIS attack in Manchester at an Ariana Grande concert.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: I imagine when one terror attack happens in a European country, the other European countries look and they say, oh, dear, is now the time to be nervous.
--:-- Noel King: Do you think other European countries are looking at what happened in Moscow and saying, OK, we got to up security here?
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: Yeah, I mean, they're already saying it. We had Jeremy Hunt, a senior UK official, saying this could happen to us.
--:-- Noel King: We have to remain vigilant. And, you know, if it is Islamic State, they are utterly indiscriminate in what they do. They are prepared to murder in the most horrific way.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: Macron, the president of France, similarly said we have to step our security.
--:-- Noel King: Obviously, France has the Olympics coming up this summer. In Germany, there are the European soccer games this summer.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: I think this is a wake-up call, not just for Russia, but for a lot of Western countries, that something like this could happen there as well.
--:-- Noel King: It was just a year ago that U.S. General Michael Carilla warned Congress about the risk posed by ISIS-K.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: ISS ISIS-Khorasan retains the capability and the will to attack U.S. and Western interests abroad in as little as six months with little to no warning.
--:-- Noel King: Vladimir Putin is blaming Ukraine. He's saying Ukraine did it. He's saying that publicly. ISIS is saying we did it. So they're claiming responsibility.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: What actually happens next year? Does Russia go after ISIS, low-key go after ISIS, or does Russia just decide, hey, we're going to let this go because we're supposed to be blaming Ukraine?
--:-- Noel King: Yeah, they're not easy answer for Russia because from a political perspective, from Putin's perspective, he wants to blame Ukraine.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: But blaming Ukraine doesn't solve the ISIS problem.
--:-- Noel King: As you said, ISIS has claimed this. We've had body cam footage shared by ISIS.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: So there's very little doubt that ISIS is the one that orchestrated this.
--:-- Noel King: So this is the irony we have here where ISIS claims something, but Putin sort of completely ignores it and says, no, actually, it is Kiev who's somehow involved.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: The question is, what will Russia do now?
--:-- Noel King: I think they will intensify strikes on Ukraine because it serves their political goals.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: I think we'll see a big crackdown on Central Asians in Moscow.
--:-- Noel King: But whether Russia has the will or the resources to actually go after ISIS, that doesn't seem to be the case at the moment.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: And lastly, Russians are obviously reeling from this attack. Russian civilians, right? What is likely to change for Russian civilians after this attack?
--:-- Noel King: I think for many, the memories of the early 2000s have come back.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: I grew up in Russia in the early 2000s, in the 90s as well, when there were a lot of terrorist attacks.
--:-- Noel King: These were perpetrated by Chechen Islamists. And that really brought the atmosphere of fear.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: Russians were scared to go to public places. There was increased security everywhere.
--:-- Noel King: I think we'll see similar effects now.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: I think there'll be even more civilians. I think this will also be used to crack down even more on anyone who's against the regime.
--:-- Noel King: There's already talk of bringing back the death penalty.
--:-- Pyotr Sauer: So I think Russia's side is going to be even more militarized, more intense and less free.
--:-- Noel King: The Guardian's Pyotr Sauer.
--:-- Noel King: Coming up, what ISIS-K wants. Support for today's show comes from Adio.
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--:-- Noel King: Today Explained, we're back with Asfandir Mir, who studies counterterrorism in South Asia at the U.S. Institute of Peace.
--:-- Noel King: I asked Asfandir to explain what ISIS is broadly before we get to ISIS-K.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: ISIS is a militant group which emerged in Iraq and Syria in 2014, and it announced a global caliphate from its base in Iraq and Syria.
--:-- Noel King: The idea of a caliphate is a territorial state where the law of the land would be in line with the strict interpretation of Islam that ISIS had.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: And in line with that announcement, some members of prominent militant groups in South Asia left their organizations and pledged allegiance to ISIS in the Middle East and created the group that is now known as ISIS-Khorasan.
--:-- Noel King: Okay, so we might say that ISIS-Khorasan or ISIS-K is a branch of ISIS that originates in and is based in Afghanistan?
--:-- Asfandir Mir: That's right.
--:-- Noel King: Where is Khorasan? What does this mean?
--:-- Asfandir Mir: Khorasan refers to parts of Afghanistan, Pakistan, eastern Iran, maybe even parts of India.
--:-- Noel King: And it's the historical name for this region.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: And there are references to Khurasan in some prophecies in Islam, which suggest that toward the end of times, the righteous armies will emerge from the Khurasan region, then fight and march towards the Middle East.
--:-- Noel King: And a lot of these militant groups, therefore, think of the Khurasan region as being particularly holy and like to see themselves in the image of those armies that are supposed to emerge at the end of times.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: These groups, ISIS original, Al-Qaeda, they often have very charismatic leaders.
--:-- Noel King: Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi became a household name in the United States.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: Osama bin Laden, of course.
--:-- Noel King: Who is the leader of ISIS-K?
--:-- Asfandir Mir: These days, the leader of ISIS is an obscure man who's never appeared in a video.
--:-- Noel King: We've heard some audios from him.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: His name is Shahab al-Muhajir, also referred to as Sana'u al-Ghaffari.
--:-- Noel King: He's an Afghan from Kabul, very young, in his early 30s.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: So very unlike Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi or even bin Laden, who was a very rich man.
--:-- Noel King: And, you know, Muhajir doesn't have that kind of standing and hasn't made those flashy, charismatic appearances in the way that, say, you know, militant leaders have at other times.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: Because as soon as your identity is revealed, you know, governments around the world, including the United States, you know, begin to begin to chase these leaders.
--:-- Noel King: And they're very likely to sort of get killed in counterterrorism action.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: So he seems to be very aware of that, having grown up in war-ravaged Afghanistan.
--:-- Noel King: What's the goal? What's the endgame for ISIS-K?
--:-- Asfandir Mir: So, you know, ISIS-K takes its goals from ISIS in the Middle East, which seeks to establish and expand its territorial caliphate.
--:-- Noel King: And in line with that, ISIS-K also wants to have a large territorial enclave in the Khorasan region.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: But in addition, ISIS-K advocates mass casualty attacks, not only to make territorial gains, but also to punish people and entities that they see as disbelieving, as infidels.
--:-- Noel King: Good afternoon, and we are coming on the air at this hour with breaking news and it's difficult. The latest details in the bomb attack outside the airport in Kabul.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: The biggest, most spectacular and horrific attack that they had carried out to date is the attack during the U.S. military evacuation after the Taliban takeover in August 2021.
--:-- Noel King: The Pentagon calling this a complex attack just five days before the U.S. deadline to withdraw from Afghanistan.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: ISIS-K struck, killed 13 U.S. service members, around 200 Afghans who were at the airport.
--:-- Noel King: Surviving Marines gathering up the wounded and dead and hundreds of Afghans running for cover.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: And then more recently, ISIS-K carried out an attack in the town of Kirman during the death anniversary of the former leader of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps.
--:-- Noel King: The first blast took place about 700 meters away from the burial site of the late Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: And was able to kill more than 70 people over there.
--:-- Noel King: In Afghanistan, they have been fighting the Taliban, and they have been waging pursuing an insurgency against the Taliban government.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: They have killed some senior Taliban leaders.
--:-- Noel King: A senior administration official telling ABC News the ISIS terrorist who masterminded the suicide bombing at Kabul airport in August 2021 was killed in recent weeks in a Taliban operation.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: And the Taliban, for their part, have also managed to kill some leaders of ISIS-K in their military operations.
--:-- Noel King: Why did ISIS-K attack Russia?
--:-- Asfandir Mir: Yeah, it's both surprising as well as in certain ways not surprising that they chose to strike at Moscow.
--:-- Noel King: Moscow is very far from Afghanistan.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: However, ISIS-K is a hyper-competitive group.
--:-- Noel King: Not only does it hold these zealous beliefs of wanting to go after infidels and disbelievers, but it also seeks to demonstrate that it is the leader of the global jihadi vanguard.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: And as part of that, it has been trying to showcase its geographic reach in the region initially.
--:-- Noel King: We have heard of plots in Europe.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: Some nine people from Central Asia were arrested in Germany and the Netherlands on Thursday for allegedly planning to carry out attacks and for collecting money for the so-called Islamic State.
--:-- Noel King: The threat of Islamist terror appears very acute, as you can see from today's arrests.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: And so this attack in Russia is very much in line with this strategy of wanting to outbid, wanting to showcase its geographic reach, really.
--:-- Noel King: I place more emphasis on them wanting to be performative and them wanting to show that they can reach an important capital like Moscow.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: And I think we should be clear that there is some ambiguity as to whether it's ISIS-K or not, because while ISIS in the Middle East has claimed the attack, ISIS-K specifically has not claimed the attack as yet.
--:-- Noel King: We only know through the U.S. government they were tracking plotting activity by ISIS-K in Moscow, which is why many of us think that very likely this attack has been carried out by ISIS-K.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: Does ISIS-K have any friends, any friendly nations?
--:-- Noel King: It does not.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: I mean, there are lots of conspiracy theories out there.
--:-- Noel King: But as an independent analyst who tries to track ISIS fairly carefully, I don't find any friends, certainly no state entities that I'm able to pinpoint.
--:-- Noel King: Let's go back to what happened late last week. Vladimir Putin blamed Ukraine for this attack.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: Now, most analysts at this point say, no, that is not in fact what happened.
--:-- Noel King: The U.S. government says ISIS-K did it.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: Is there any sense in your research that ISIS-K has a side in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
--:-- Noel King: ISIS-K has been mostly focused on South Asia and the immediate neighbors of Afghanistan.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: So in that sense, there's been chatter on Russia. ISIS-K has taken note of the warming relations between the Taliban and Russia.
--:-- Noel King: In the past, ISIS-K has complained about Russian support for the Taliban's insurgency.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: So I think it's safe to say that ISIS-K has been more animated by Russia than by Ukraine, both recently and sort of historically.
--:-- Noel King: What do you think ISIS-K will have its eye on next after somewhat successfully pulling this thing off?
--:-- Asfandir Mir: There are signs that ISIS-K is keen on striking Western interests.
--:-- Noel King: I worry about ISIS-K's intent and perhaps even some capability to strike in parts of Europe.
--:-- Asfandir Mir: And I hope that counter-tism authorities around the world are much more vigilant than they are currently and try to prevent these attacks.
--:-- Noel King: That was Asfandir Mir of the U.S. Institute of Peace.
--:-- Noel King: Today's show was produced by Avishai Artsy and Haleema Shah.
--:-- Noel King: It was edited by Miranda Kennedy, fact-checked by Laura Bullard and Kim Eggleston, and engineered by Patrick Boyd.
--:-- Noel King: I'm Noelle King, and you might remember that a couple of weeks ago I interviewed Charlemagne the God about some recent polling that shows Black voters saying if the election was held now, they'd vote for Donald Trump.
--:-- Noel King: About a quarter of those polled. This is really interesting.
--:-- Noel King: Charlemagne has a very big audience, and he hosts a call-in show, and he told me he's heard the same thing.
--:-- Noel King: So, it is time for a classic Today Explained call-in.
--:-- Noel King: Are you thinking about voting for Donald Trump and maybe a little bit surprised by that? Or do you know someone who's thinking about it and maybe that surprises you a little bit?
--:-- Noel King: That's the boat I'm in. We are focused on black voters this time around.
--:-- Noel King: We're going to do lots of election coverage, of course.
--:-- Noel King: Our number is 844-453-4448.
--:-- Noel King: 844-453-4448 if you're Trump curious.
--:-- Noel King: Tell us why. Tell me why.
--:-- Noel King: We might contact you. We might use your voicemail on the show.
--:-- Noel King: So please, if you would, leave your number.
--:-- Noel King: Thank you.
--:-- Noel King: This has been Today Explained.
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--:-- Noel King: That's it for today's show.
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--:-- Noel King: Thanks for listening.
--:-- Noel King: Today Explained is a production of Vox.
--:-- Noel King: I'm Noel King.
--:-- Noel King: And that's it for today.
--:-- Noel King: Thanks for listening.
--:-- Noel King: Today Explained is a production of Vox.
--:-- Noel King: I'm Noel King.
--:-- Noel King: And that's it for today.
--:-- Noel King: Thanks for listening.
--:-- Noel King: Today Explained is a production of Vox.
--:-- Noel King: I'm Noel King.
--:-- Noel King: And that's it for today.
--:-- Noel King: Thanks for listening.
--:-- Noel King: Today Explained is a production of Vox.
--:-- Noel King: I'm Noel King.
--:-- Noel King: And that's it for today.
--:-- Noel King: Thanks for listening.
--:-- Noel King: Today Explained is a production of Vox.
--:-- Noel King: I'm Noel King.
--:-- Noel King: And that's it for today.
--:-- Noel King: Thanks for listening.
--:-- Noel King: Today Explained is a production of Vox.
--:-- Noel King: I'm Noel King.
--:-- Noel King: And that's it for today.
--:-- Noel King: Thanks for listening.
--:-- Noel King: Today Explained is a production of Vox.
--:-- Noel King: I'm Noel King.
--:-- Noel King: And that's it for today.
--:-- Noel King: Thanks for listening.
--:-- Noel King: Today Explained is a production of Vox.