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--:-- Noel King: Welcome to Today Explained. I'm Noel King.
--:-- Noel King: President Joe Biden has always gone pretty hard during Pride Month. We have more LGBTQ plus people than any administration or every administration combined. No, I really mean it. But this June, he's in full campaign mode, launching out for Biden-Harris and dispatching icons such as Vice President Harris. As the great Harvey Milk once said, and Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, no video found, to talk to the American people.
--:-- Noel King: His campaign may be rattled by some survey data suggesting that Biden's support among LGBTQ plus communities, solidly, solidly, solidly Democratic communities, may be slipping. Coming up on Today Explained, our reporter with some surprising findings.
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--:-- Noel King: 2020, 2020, four. It's Today Explained. I'm Noelle King with Vox senior politics reporter Christian Paz, who recently wrote a piece titled, Are LGBTQ Voters About to Abandon Biden? Joe Biden is still leading in the polls with this bloc, but there's some evidence that this year, queer voters have many of the same concerns as the general electorate.
--:-- Christian Paz: There have been a few surveys, actually, that don't necessarily ask about the head-to-head between the candidates, but ask about issues and the way that they're thinking about 2024. And the thing that comes up again and again in those surveys is it's the economy, inflation, kitchen table issues that are significantly influential in the way that these voters are thinking about 2024.
--:-- Christian Paz: And that kind of makes them look a little bit like, you know, voters from other demographic groups, you know, whether we're thinking about Latino and Black voters, whether we're thinking about, you know, non-college-educated voters, things that they prioritize also tend to be the economy, inflation, affordability, prices.
--:-- Christian Paz: And especially for LGBTQ voters, that's significant because that's coming in significantly higher than concerns over LGBTQ rights or equality. And that's one of those interesting pictures that kind of complicates 2024, since it suggests that LGBTQ voters are kind of behaving in ways similar to other voters.
--:-- Noel King: We've covered some of this this election season with respect to Black voters, which you mentioned. And there's a thing that I always wonder, Christian, which is if a group is beginning to behave like the rest of the electorate, if a group is saying we have other issues beyond just like what our identity is, why is that such a problem for Democrats?
--:-- Christian Paz: It's definitely a problem for Democrats when you think about what it is that binds groups of voters together and makes them work and operate as a voting bloc that gives a significant margin of support to one party, in this case, obviously, Democrats.
--:-- Christian Paz: Because usually when you have groups of voters that begin to behave a little bit more like other voters, it means that they're becoming more persuadable swing voters and more open perhaps to considering the other side or to reconsider what it is that binds them to one party.
--:-- Christian Paz: And so with LGBTQ voters and Black voters, those are actually two of the most loyal voting groups in the Democratic coalition. You're starting off with such high levels of support that any drop-off in that level is sure to have some kind of effect on the overall vote share within a given state, within a given district, or just across the country with the popular vote.
--:-- Noel King: I imagine Democrats are looking at the same polling and realizing they may have a problem. So what are they doing about it?
--:-- Christian Paz: Yeah, they're definitely revving up the outreach efforts for Pride Month. Obviously, we're in June. A lot of it looks like emphasizing how much this party has done in terms of increasing visibility for LGBTQ folks.
--:-- Christian Paz: They're bringing out Secretary of Transportation people to judge. My marriage and my family and the two beautiful children that my husband Chastin and I are raising, that marriage only exists by the grace of a single vote on the United States Supreme Court that expanded our rights and freedoms back in 2015 and made it possible for somebody like me to get married.
--:-- Christian Paz: They're, you know, elevating members of Congress, like Representative Robert Garcia from California as a key spokesperson, even though he is a freshman representative.
--:-- Christian Paz: Hey everyone, it's Congressman Robert Garcia. We're here in Tucson, Arizona, with all these amazing people launching out for Biden.
--:-- Christian Paz: They're bringing out Vice President Harris to talk to specifically LGBTQ media outlets. They're bringing second gentleman Doug Emhoff out to Pride events to talk about the accomplishments of the Biden administration.
--:-- Christian Paz: Another thing that they're doing is trying to, quote unquote, lay out the stakes. Donald Trump is a bully. He is dangerous to the LGBTQ community, to our families.
--:-- Christian Paz: They're emphasizing the threats to IDF and threats to trans rights and, you know, gender affirming care for trans folks.
--:-- Christian Paz: And one of the other interesting things to point out is that, again, LGBTQ people are not monolithic. They understand the importance of those stakes.
--:-- Christian Paz: But at the same time, they want both parties to focus on some of these everyday issues of affordability. And so that is one thing that I think is missing from some of this messaging during Pride Month is it's very, very specifically focused on LGBTQ identity and rights.
--:-- Christian Paz: But perhaps there a little bit less of a focus on some of the things that are making these voters think like the average voter
--:-- Noel King: Where are Republicans at and what are they doing?
--:-- Christian Paz: It's interesting because it's dependent on whether it's Donald Trump himself, who is not necessarily somebody who speaks the most about LGBTQ identity or rights or even, you know, while the rest of his party was very directly going after trans identity and going after, you know, books and LGBTQ visibility.
--:-- Christian Paz: It took him a while to actually weigh in on that. Let's talk about same-sex marriage. You said a few years ago that you were evolving on that issue. Where are you? I'm traditional marriage. It is changing rapidly.
--:-- Christian Paz: But what do you say to a lesbian who's married or a gay man who's married who says, Donald Trump, what's traditional about being married three times?
--:-- Christian Paz: Well, they have a very good point. And even then, it doesn't seem like those social issues are the ones that he's the most concerned about, which is maybe why it's easier for a lot of Republican and conservative-leaning LGBTQ groups to try to make appeals to LGBTQ voters, rooted a little bit more in some of those kitchen table concerns, talking about affordability, talking about prices, talking about inflation, with some appeals to other factors like immigration and crime.
--:-- Christian Paz: But it's interesting to see that even though President Trump himself doesn't necessarily talk a lot about LGBTQ issues, he's kind of turned to his family as ways to make those appeals in his stead.
--:-- Christian Paz: So famously back in 2016, his daughter Tiffany Trump attended a few LGBTQ for Trump rallies. And people can say whatever they want to say, but I'm here because I support my father. He supports all of you.
--:-- Christian Paz: And we are here to fight for equality and democracy.
--:-- Christian Paz: And this year, actually, in April, former First Lady Melania Trump appeared at a fundraiser for the Log Cabin Republicans.
--:-- Christian Paz: That's the major conservative Republican-aligned LGBTQ group in the U.S. And she was there to kind of announce additional investments that the campaign and allied groups would be making to partner with Log Cabin Republicans to reach out to LGBTQ conservative and Republican voters.
--:-- Christian Paz: A few of those details haven't yet been announced. But even like saying that that's something that they want to do is interesting because historically the Republican Party hasn't necessarily thought of this voting group as a group that is necessarily the most fruitful for them to try to make investments in because that creates some tension with the core social conservative evangelical base of the party that they've needed for so long.
--:-- Christian Paz: But it looks like we're seeing a little bit of, you know, even the Republican Party itself considering just how much to reach out to these voters because they're also seeing this polling. They're also seeing indications that Trump improved in 2020 compared to 2016.
--:-- Christian Paz: So why not maybe try to peel off a few more votes on that side? And what makes that so interesting is that there is still obviously a fairly broad vein of what can be described as homophobia in the policymaking.
--:-- Christian Paz: This has not been this has not been solved within the Republican Party. Oh, it's definitely not been solved. And if anything, what we've seen is a pretty big cleavage.
--:-- Christian Paz: Even in 2022, you still had a significant number of Senate and House Republicans voting in favor of codifying same sex marriage protections. And then later that year, also, we see the rise of Ron DeSantis and the relevance, again, of these don't say gay law efforts.
--:-- Christian Paz: This morning, the Florida law critics dubbed the don't say gay bill is expanding. Gender ideology has no place in our K through 12 school system.
--:-- Christian Paz: And we've made that very, very clear. It is wrong for a teacher to tell a student that they may have been born in the wrong body or that their gender is a choice.
--:-- Christian Paz: And it seems like somewhere around 2022, we have a pretty sharp return to old school homophobia, where for that last year, it seemed like it was a specifically focused attack on trans Americans and trans rights.
--:-- Christian Paz: According to the Human Rights Campaign, an LGBTQ advocacy group, lawmakers in 28 states are considering 93 bills targeting the rights of transgender Americans.
--:-- Christian Paz: And then it expanded a bit more from there. And it's a sharp contrast to the way we saw the party kind of change a bit from when the first efforts to repeal Don't Ask, Don't Tell, the military policy that prohibited LGBTQ service members from serving openly in the military, that was repealed in 2011.
--:-- Christian Paz: And from then to 2022, we saw a general march along a path toward greater acceptance, tolerance, definitely within the Democratic Party, and a slight kind of shift toward the center among Republicans.
--:-- Christian Paz: And then from 2022 on, we definitely see a sharp pivot against, definitely with the rise of Republicans to the right on social issues compared to Donald Trump and kind of pulling Donald Trump in that direction.
--:-- Christian Paz: And what we're seeing since, especially since the 2020 election, is one party continuing, you know, as milquetoast as some of these outreach efforts might seem, it's still relevant that the Democratic Party is elevating folks like Pete Buttigieg when the other party is actively turning against them.
--:-- Christian Paz: What do you think in 2024, what do you think the story of this community and this election will be?
--:-- Christian Paz: It's definitely going to be a nuanced picture that develops because a lot of history for, you know, we're thinking about other marginalized groups and experiences that other voting blocs have had that has kind of made them become less of a voting bloc and more of just a swing group.
--:-- Christian Paz: And here I'm thinking about Catholic voters, Italian and Irish American voters. More recently, something that's happening among Hispanic and Latino voters potentially, where they used to also be a pretty significant voting bloc on the Democratic side and are now much more persuadable and swingable.
--:-- Christian Paz: There is a lot of history there that suggests that something similar would be in store for LGBTQ voters. Combine that with an unpopular Democratic incumbent. Combine that with a generally still sour mood on the economy and the status quo.
--:-- Christian Paz: And you see kind of a recipe for a pretty significant shift happening. And yet we're also going to see something that is maybe just unique to LGBTQ voters, that these shared experiences are still really, really relevant, that they're still really important, that they're still significant enough to make them not even consider the opposite party.
--:-- Christian Paz: And so we're going to see just how relevant and influential this voting group becomes and get some indications as to whether or not their experiences and that shared sense of identity is strong enough to overcome some of the other factors that might otherwise suggest that they become less loyal to the Democrats.
--:-- Noel King: Coming up a California congressman on out for Biden
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--:-- Noel King: Hi, Gay. Happy Pradmont. We are sashaying away with... Today Explained.
--:-- Noel King: Congressman Robert Garcia, Democrat of California, one of nine openly LGBTQ House members, is working with the Biden campaign to get out the queer vote.
--:-- Noel King: I began by asking the question that we were here to discuss today. The question that we're here to discuss today is this. Can President Biden count on LGBTQ support in the 2024 election?
--:-- Robert Garcia: I mean, I think he can. I mean, first, let's think we've got to be real honest. I think traditionally LGBTQ plus people have been strong supporters of Democrats, of progressives. Most vast majority are progressive.
--:-- Robert Garcia: The president and the vice president have a great record on gay rights and the advancement of rights for queer people. And so I expect very overwhelmingly that our community is going to come out for the president and the vice president.
--:-- Robert Garcia: Let's not forget that President Biden was the first person as vice president to actually come out in favor of gay marriage.
--:-- Robert Garcia: And he actually nudged at the time President Obama. I am vice president of the United States of America. The president sets the policy. I am absolutely comfortable with the fact that men marrying men, women marrying women and heterosexual men and women marrying women are entitled to the same exact rights, all the civil rights, all the civil liberties.
--:-- Robert Garcia: And quite frankly, I don't see much of a distinction beyond that.
--:-- Noel King: Let me shoot you some numbers and ask you what you think, OK? So according to exit polling in 2020, President Biden won 64 percent of the queer vote. Trump, Donald Trump, candidate Trump, won 27 percent.
--:-- Robert Garcia: Recent polling from the Independent Center showed that in a Biden-Trump matchup in 2024, it's about 56 percent for Biden, 28 percent for Trump and another 16 percent were undecided.
--:-- Robert Garcia: What do you think that 16 percent undecided are trying to decide?
--:-- Robert Garcia: Well, I think first, I think like any election, these numbers will harden once the actual choice is in front of voters.
--:-- Robert Garcia: And so I think that we'll find when all of a sudden done in this election that you're going to see a significant number of voters are actually going to be with President Biden.
--:-- Robert Garcia: I think that will match or exceed the last election. And so I'm not overly concerned.
--:-- Robert Garcia: I think there are obviously a lot of issues going on right now in the world and the way people feel about the economy as it continues to improve.
--:-- Robert Garcia: And so it's not super surprising that all of the president's numbers haven't hardened with all communities.
--:-- Robert Garcia: I think you're seeing that across communities, not just ours.
--:-- Robert Garcia: And so but I'm not super concerned.
--:-- Robert Garcia: I think Donald Trump is a con man and a criminal. He is going to be on the ballot. He is anti LGBTQ plus. He says horrible things about the trans community.
--:-- Robert Garcia: So those are all issues that we're going to get out there. and we're going to remind voters what the difference in the records are.
--:-- Robert Garcia: And as we do that, I think those numbers will harden and shift.
--:-- Robert Garcia: Donald Trump hasn't changed a lot over the years. He hasn't really changed the way he talks. He hasn't really changed the way he presents.
--:-- Robert Garcia: What has changed here is the numbers. It's that 16 percent.
--:-- Noel King: Donald Trump does have a tendency to win groups that people say he can't win.
--:-- Robert Garcia: Well, I think first, I mean, let's also be clear. I mean, President Biden is going to win the LGBTQ plus community. I mean, that's a fact. He's going to win it on election day and he'll win it overwhelmingly.
--:-- Robert Garcia: But I think the point about the legal predicament that Trump's in, I mean, the fact that he has now has these convictions and will have more is a good reminder of the community. That's someone that can't be trusted and that wants to harm our community.
--:-- Robert Garcia: I also think that the election, I mean, we're comparing some numbers. One is at Election Day and the other is still many months before the election.
--:-- Robert Garcia: And I think the numbers at the end of the day, when Election Day is here, those numbers will strengthen because we'll be in a full-blown campaign.
--:-- Robert Garcia: I helped the campaign launch out for Biden, which is a national campaign to engage LGBTQ plus voters. I was there at the launch. I've done events. I was just in Tucson, Arizona, launching out for Biden there.
--:-- Robert Garcia: And so I continue to do that work across the country activating our base And it not just me it other national LGBTQ plus groups that are out there doing the same kind of work
--:-- Robert Garcia: And so we shouldn't take our voters for granted and we shouldn't just assume that they're going to be good Democratic voters all the time.
--:-- Robert Garcia: We have to put in the work and remind folks about the record.
--:-- Noel King: That is why I don't have a huge concern about somehow Trump winning over more of these votes.
--:-- Robert Garcia: We're going to remind our community how horrific Donald Trump is for queer people. His transgender ban, leaning into Project 2025, which essentially wants to roll back the rights of gay people in this country, his extreme Supreme Court justices.
--:-- Robert Garcia: So these are all important. And certainly we're going to lean into them really, really hard as Election Day gets closer.
--:-- Noel King: Tell me about Out for Biden's message, where you've been, what you're telling folks.
--:-- Robert Garcia: Right. I mean, first, we want to remind people that, you know, it's been President Biden that signed the Respect for Marriage Act.
--:-- Robert Garcia: It's been President Biden that has put forward really strong judges across the country that support our rights.
--:-- Robert Garcia: It's been President that, you know, that reverse Trump's misguided attacks on trans people.
--:-- Robert Garcia: So we're going to remind him of that, but we're also going to lean in to the fact that what's next? I mean, the Equality Act. We need a president that can sign the Equality Act into law. That's going to be President Biden.
--:-- Robert Garcia: We need a president that is going to kind of push back on some of these states that are passing these horrific anti-LGBTQ plus laws. That's going to be President Biden.
--:-- Noel King: We heard in the first half of the show that polling shows this block is not just motivated by rights and equality. In fact, they're also very interested in jobs, in the economy, in inflation.
--:-- Robert Garcia: You didn't mention that as part of Out for Biden's message. Should it be? Why isn't it?
--:-- Robert Garcia: No, well, I mean, it is. And I think I've obviously been focusing on the LGBTQ plus broader themes, but Out for Biden focuses on the entire Biden-Harris record.
--:-- Robert Garcia: And you're absolutely right. I think that queer people absolutely care about the economy and they absolutely care about other issues like reproductive rights for women.
--:-- Robert Garcia: They absolutely care about student loan relief. They absolutely care about climate. And so on all of these issues, the president is on the right side.
--:-- Robert Garcia: And so we have to remind voters of all of that.
--:-- Noel King: Congressman Robert Garcia, Democrat, California, thank you so much for your time.
--:-- Noel King: Vox's Christian Paz is back with us, a little unusually for today. Explained, Christian was listening to our interview with Mr. Garcia.
--:-- Noel King: Congressman Garcia didn't seem too concerned, Christian, with that undecided 16 percent.
--:-- Christian Paz: Yeah, I think there's definitely a little bit of both. I don't think that there's much data or, you know, even anecdotal information that leads us to suggest that Donald Trump will win a significantly larger chunk of the LGBTQ vote or a majority.
--:-- Christian Paz: What I think I'm a little more hesitant, and this is maybe a little bit of just campaign speak here, is the assumption that there'll be a significant increase in support for President Biden, given that all signs kind of suggest that there's general dissatisfaction across the Democratic base and across the American electorate as a whole.
--:-- Christian Paz: And so on that front, I do think that there's maybe a little bit of wish casting, but then also recognizing that there is plenty of time left in the election and that there will be a lot that the campaign does to try to reach out to these voters and plenty of time for them to fine tune their message as well.
--:-- Noel King: Thanks for hanging out, Christian.
--:-- Christian Paz: Thanks for having me.
--:-- Noel King: Today's show was produced by Amanda Llewellyn and edited by Amina El-Sadi.
--:-- Noel King: It was fact-checked by Icons, Laura Bullard, and Matthew Collect.
--:-- Noel King: It was engineered by Rob Byers and Andrea Kristen's daughter.
--:-- Noel King: I'm Noelle King. It's Today Explained. Thank you.
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