--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: I'm Ayesha Rascoe, and this is The Sunday Story, where we go beyond the news to bring you one big story. Last year, we took a deep dive on electric vehicles to answer some of your big questions. Why are more automakers offering smaller, cheaper electric vehicles? Is it better from an environmental standpoint to buy an electric vehicle now, or is it better to keep driving the car that you have? What is the environmental impact of making all of these batteries for electric vehicles? Those questions came in last March from Up First listeners Arvind Srinivasan, Ali McCurl, and Anna Simon. Over a year later, we here at The Sunday Story have one big question ourselves. What's next for electric vehicles? Camila Domonoske is joining us again to try to shed a little light on that.
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--:-- Camila Domonoske: Thanks for having me, Ayesha.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: Stay with us. Camila, there's a new administration here in Washington, D.C., and we've already seen really dramatic shifts on electric vehicles. The Biden administration was all in on EVs, and the Trump administration has really basically set out to reverse all of those policies. So how is that shifting things for this industry?
--:-- Camila Domonoske: It is a very different vibe right now. I mean, a few years ago, you had a president who was setting a target of 50% of new car sales being electric by 2030. And you had some companies falling over themselves to set targets for going entirely 100% electric.
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--:-- Camila Domonoske: Here's a very specific example. In 2022, Hyundai announced that they were opening this new giant plant in Georgia that was only going to make electric vehicles. Here's Jose Munoz, an executive at Hyundai, speaking at the groundbreaking for this factory less than three years ago.
--:-- Jose Munoz: We heard the clarion call of this administration to hasten the adoption of new electric vehicles and reduce carbon emissions. This administration being, of course, the Biden White House, which had all of these incentives and requirements, the proverbial carrots and sticks, right, to boost EV sales.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: So, Aisha, that was the groundbreaking for this plant west of Savannah. It is now open. It is making electric vehicles right now. And I was there for the grand opening this spring, walking around, talking to myself, as radio reporters do. It smells strongly of, I don't know, something I can only describe as a new car factory smell.
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--:-- Camila Domonoske: And Jose Munoz, that same executive we heard at the groundbreaking, he is now Hyundai's global CEO. He gave speeches. Other executives gave speeches. Republican politicians gave speeches. And do you know what they did not say? What didn't they say? The word electric or batteries or EVs or clean or green or carbon or climate. Not once.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: Wow. I mean, that's a huge shift. And why? Is it just because they don't want to say these things that have become buzzwords that could upset President Trump? Is it because electric vehicles are not politically popular right now? I mean, that's clearly a factor, right?
--:-- Camila Domonoske: As you mentioned at the top, there is a policy U-turn that is underway. Biden had all of these carrots like incentives, tax credits, manufacturing credits, and the less pleasant for the industry sticks, federal emissions standards, rules out of California that required automakers to sell EVs and eventually to sell only EVs. Republicans are trying to roll back all of those in May. Congress did roll back those key California rules, and the EV tax credits are one of the things that Congress could cut in the mega bill, the tax and spending bill that they're considering right now.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: And this is a huge priority for the oil industry, which has lambasted these rules, especially anything requiring companies to do something, as being hostile to consumer choice. They've also filed some court cases arguing that these rules would harm the oil industry by reducing demand for oil.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: Now, the auto industry likes the incentives. They like the carrots, but they've joined in pushing against some of the rules or the sticks, saying they're not feasible.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: So yes, this policy shift is happening. And there is also the element of Trump personally doesn't seem to like electric vehicles. Well, for a minute there, it seemed like he liked electric vehicles if they were made by Elon Musk. You know, I'm not sure how he feels about those Teslas anymore.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: Yeah, put a pin in that, Aisha. We're going to come back. We'll talk about that some more. But this vibe shift, this change in tone on EVs, it is not all about politics. It is also about sales and consumer demand, which has not been where automakers wanted.
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--:-- Camila Domonoske: After that grand opening, after all the speeches were over, Munoz, that executive, he spoke to reporters. When we started this project, originally everybody thought, okay, the world is going to be fully electric. We were also thinking that way, but soon we realized that the pace of electrification was not going to be as fast as everybody thought.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: Over the past few years, EV sales have grown, but they are nowhere near what companies had planned on. And some of this is some of the concerns that we mentioned in our previous episode. The lack of charging infrastructure is a huge one, right? There's the issue of cost, especially upfront cost of cars. And there also been the fact that it just difficult for an industry to make the shift from selling to early adopters who like to have the shiny new tech to mainstream consumers who just want a good deal.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: And the industry is struggling frankly with making that switch. Meanwhile hybrid vehicles have taken off. And that includes cars like the classic Prius, as well as plug-in hybrids that can run just on electricity for short distances and use gas for road trips. This whole category of vehicles is growing much more rapidly.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: So then very quickly, we decided we're going to produce also hybrid vehicles here. So what Muñoz is saying here is that it's not just a matter of Hyundai de-emphasizing what they're doing at this plant. It's also simply that it's not going to be a 100% electric vehicle plant anymore. There are also going to be some combustion engines built there.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: So is this something that's unique to Hyundai? No, not at all. A ton of automakers are getting more interested in hybrid vehicles right now. And we've seen a lot of big announcements about slowing down EV investments, stepping back from pledges to make a certain percentage of EVs, from Ford, GM, Volvo, Mercedes, Honda.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: And I want to be clear, it's not that all the automakers are exactly the same, right? There are differences. Toyota has always been skeptical of EVs. The all-electric automakers like Tesla and Rivian, they're obviously still all in on batteries. There is a range, right?
--:-- Camila Domonoske: But everyone who sells cars in the U.S. is feeling this political shift and these market dynamics. And most of them are way behind on their climate goals, where selling more EVs was a crucial part of their plan to cut emissions. And that is according to a group called Asset Impact, which has been crunching numbers on that.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: So you said almost all of them, but who's doing all right? Who's, you know, sitting here on easy street? Yeah, well, I wouldn't say easy street. It's a very hard path. But right now, BMW and Honda do look like they're on track to build enough EVs to cut their emissions quite sharply, according to Asset Impact.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: This is all forecasting, so we are going to have to see what companies actually do. And that is a huge part of this, right? We do have to wait and see what happens.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: And I want to be totally clear here that no one is expecting the company to completely reverse course on EVs. Companies still plan to expand their electric vehicle sales. They're still putting billions of dollars and lots of effort into this. And they absolutely still plan on selling enough EVs to justify that. It's just not going to happen nearly as fast.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: So why are companies then still putting billions of dollars into this if it seems like maybe the demand isn't there? Yeah, well, first of all, and this is no small thing, these aren't plans that you can just change on a dime, right? It takes years to build a new factory or redesign a new kind of vehicle. These are plans made well in advance.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: Another factor is that the auto industry is a global industry. And right now, everyone's eyes are on China. China is pushing into EVs in a big way. The government has poured money into it. Companies have been competing like crazy. Half of new vehicles in that country have a plug now. It's more like 10% here, 25% in California, which is the leader nationally on this.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: And those Chinese EVs are also very affordable. They are often cheaper than the cheapest gas car you can get here in the US. And by all accounts, they are also very good, very impressive vehicles. In some respects, blowing out of the water what we can get here in the US. Things like a five-minute charge time. In the States, 20 minutes to charge EV is considered very fast and a ton of really high-tech features.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: Yeah, I think I've seen some of them like on TikTok and stuff. But the thing is, we can't get those Chinese vehicles here in the U.S., right? Yeah, that's right. And that's on purpose. Long before the current tariff palooza, there were big tariffs on Chinese EVs and bans on Chinese vehicle technology.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: And that's partly good old-fashioned trade protectionism, trying to keep Chinese vehicles out because companies have argued that it's unfair that Chinese companies got all these state subsidies. It's also because of concerns about surveillance technology in Chinese-made vehicles, which I've talked to people in the car industry and in cybersecurity who say those are legitimate concerns.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: Cars are essentially rolling surveillance devices these days, packed with cameras and microphones and location data. In fact, U.S. companies have been busted sharing data with insurers without drivers noticing.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: Anyway, for now, yes, folks in the U.S. cannot buy these Chinese EVs like a BYD or a Zika or a Xiaomi. But automakers operate globally. And U.S. trade barriers or not, they have to be ready to go toe-to-toe with these Chinese EVs, which are spreading around the world in other countries and selling really well, right?
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: And then one more reason why they're still getting investment is the idea that EVs are just good cars. I went to the car show in D.C. earlier this year, and I swung by the General Motors booth to chat with Jeff Morrison, Senior Vice President for Global Purchasing and Supply Chain.
--:-- Jeff Morrison: We were surrounded by these big gas-powered trucks and SUVs, but also the electric Silverado pickup, the Equinox EV, the Blazer EV.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: And when I asked Morrison about federal EV policy, he pivoted. He wanted to talk about all the GM EVs that he's driven personally.
--:-- Jeff Morrison: What I'll tell you is they're just great vehicles. And the customer experience of being able to charge at home. The range anxiety that maybe I thought I was going to have when I first started goes away with time because you realize that almost all the charging you do is really at home. They're stable. They just feel good. The performance is there.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: He's saying they're comfortable, they're convenient, they're sporty. And look, EVs do have environmental benefits, right? I mean, bikes and transit are much better for the planet. But if you going to have a car an electric version will generally emit a lot less carbon over its lifetime even with the environmental impacts of batteries and electricity to charge them like we dug into in that previous episode.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: So okay yes green benefits For some car shoppers and for some lawmakers that is a top priority but not for everyone right? Whereas something that is fun and comfortable to drive and low maintenance and especially if they become cheaper someday maybe than gas cars, well, those kinds of things appeal to everyone, right?
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: Yeah. So car executives think fundamentally people will want these vehicles at some point. So they need to be ready to sell them. And that's a huge part of why even the politics of EVs going through this big upheaval doesn't mean that companies are backing off from EVs entirely.
--:-- [Sound of a sponsor message]
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: This message comes from NPR sponsor AARP. Where do you see your career in 12 years? What are you doing now to help you get there? The sooner you start enhancing your skills, the sooner you'll be ready. That's why AARP has management, finance, and small business reskilling courses, all to help your income live as long as you do. Because the steps you choose to take today will help you love what you do in the future. Learn more at aarp.org slash skills.
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--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: This message comes from NPR sponsor, Adobe. Introducing the all-new Adobe Acrobat Studio, now with AI-powered PDF spaces. Need to turn 100 pages of market research into 5 insights with a click? Templates for a sales proposal that'll close that deal? Or an AI specialist to tailor the tone of your market report? You can do all that with the all-new Adobe Acrobat Studio. Learn more at adobe.com slash do that with Acrobat.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: Okay, so when we're talking about policy shifts, it seems like there's a big, I don't know if it's an elephant in the room or what you would call it, but can we talk about Tesla? You have people feeling very upset at Elon Musk and like putting stickers on their Tesla saying, I bought this before Elon went crazy.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: Yeah. Like it's very polarizing now. Absolutely. There has been a truly remarkable turnaround in the Tesla brand. Driving one used to signal that you were rich or techie or eco-conscious or all three, right? And now to many people, it signals support for Doge and Elon Musk and Donald Trump because obviously of everything that Elon Musk was until very recently doing in the government.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: So in the near term, And this has pretty clearly been bad for Tesla sales. Musk denies that there's been an impact. And Tesla is still far and away the top selling EV in the US. But certainly it was a very rough quarter, right? The first quarter profits were down 71%, 71% from the same time last year.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: And that is in part because the people most interested in buying an EV right now do tend to be Democrats. But still, President Trump, he did urge his supporters to buy Teslas. Elon Musk himself pointed out in a Bloomberg interview that some people are buying Teslas because he's quote unquote crazy, like the bumper stickers say. And they agree with what he was doing with Doge.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: Absolutely. There is this pressure in the other direction, right? And I have talked to Republicans who said that Musk is part of why they bought a Tesla. People like Kamali Wright. He works in marketing in Florida and spoke to me from inside his Model 3, which he's owned for several years.
--:-- Kamali Wright: Man, I've been a fan of Elon forever. You know, this man has created thousands of jobs in America for Americans. You know, this man has created revolutionary things. So to me, he's always going to be good in my book.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: Wright says the massive backlash against Musk makes him more inclined to buy a Tesla. He wants a Cybertruck next. You know, if everybody's going to hate on this guy, that's going to make me buy even more, I guess.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: And even for people who aren't trying to buy a car to help Elon Musk, this shift does appeal to some shoppers. I have spoken to some conservatives who said they felt like before driving an EV would signal that they were liberal, which they didn't want. And now, at least for a Tesla, that barrier is gone.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: Now, here's the problem for Tesla. Right now, there are simply not enough Kamali rights and other conservative shoppers who now want to buy a Tesla to make up for all the people who are not buying Teslas because of Musk. There are going to be no explosion of sales that recover the losses that Tesla has been enduring because of this political shift.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: Alexander Edwards runs Strategic Vision, a company that surveys new car buyers. His data last year showed that for the first time, a new Tesla buyer was more likely to be a Republican than a Democrat. But that's not because Republican sales surged. It's because many Democrats were fleeing.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: All they've done is alienate their primary consumer, and those that would love to buy them are not in a position to buy them. And to be clear, that's not just because of ideological opposition to EVs. Republicans are more likely to live in areas with less charging infrastructure.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: Cities and areas with more progressive governments typically have more plugs available.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: Okay, so I mean, this is a lot going on. What does this all mean for the person who's like, I'm just a driver and I'm considering buying an EV? Yeah. Well, I would emphasize a few things. First of all is that prices are really uncertain right now.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: For a long time EVs were getting cheaper year after year. Now between tariffs which keep changing and the possibility that tax credits get eliminated a possibility high probability, prices might go up instead.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: And that means the best shot at an affordable EV might be in the used market, where a bunch of vehicles might be coming off lease in the next few years. And used Teslas, from people who no longer want to be associated with them, those prices have come down significantly. So there's real bargains there.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: The second thing to flag is that the timeline for new EVs coming out, they've been pushed back. They're not coming out as fast as expected. Now, improvements are still coming. GM just announced a new battery type. They're going to put new electric trucks starting in 2028.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: There are dozens of new EVs coming in the next few years, but not as many different models as previously expected. And companies might not make as many of them as they thought, especially if the requirements that companies sell a certain number of EVs are eliminated.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: Is there anything on the horizon that might feel the void that Tesla's left in the market? You know, something that's like cool and hip and kind of gets into the zeitgeist or whatever, and people are talking about it, right?
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: Yeah, it'll be interesting to see. So I'd watch Honda. The prologue has done well. And the Honda Zero series, which is a brand new line, is starting next year, and it looks like it might be pretty cool, pretty distinctive looking.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: GM's Equinox is a contender. It's pretty well-priced. Or on the higher end, those electric Cadillacs people feel pretty strongly about. And don't sleep on the Koreans. Hyundai and Kia, the EV9, the Ioniq lines, those are pretty compelling vehicles.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: Now, what about charging? Because I've heard that the federal government is freezing all the money that was going to build more chargers. And you know, you've mentioned that charging infrastructure is an issue. Does that mean that I shouldn't get an EV because they're not going to be building out this infrastructure?
--:-- Camila Domonoske: I would put a caveat on that. So first of all, yes. This government push was to add chargers along highways and in underserved communities. It was moving frustratingly slow, and now it is on pause. There's a legal fight that's currently underway about this. For now, the money is frozen, and the federal office that's meant to support this effort no longer has any full-time staff, according to former staff who spoke to me.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: At the same time, the Tesla supercharger network is opening up to other companies, which has been a huge deal. And Tesla and other private companies are still building new chargers.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: You know, I watched the data on this and I also have personal experience. I did a thousand mile EV road trip last fall. The charging options out there for road trips have gotten a lot better.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: And like that GM executive told us, it is true that most drivers do most of their charging at home, which means you're not using these fast chargers much at all.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: If you're considering an EV, I always say step one is to figure out if you can charge at home. The EPA has a home charger calculator to help you figure out if you'll want to install a special charger or if you can get by on just a standard outlet, which is what I do for the record.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: And if you can charge at home, it's a lot simpler and you will do that almost all of the time.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: All right. Well, you know, thank you for those practical tips. That's the news you can use.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: Let's zoom out a little bit though and look at the big picture. Like four years from now, what do you think will be the state of the American electric vehicle industry?
--:-- Camila Domonoske: Well, you know, like they say, it's dangerous to make predictions, especially about the future. But I think there are going to be more EVs sold in the U.S. than there are today, and I think they'll be significantly better.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: How many more? And if they're going to be better enough to compete with the offerings out of China, I mean, that's hard to say.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: And a lot of that is going to depend on consumers, especially if regulations get rolled back. It'll depend enormously on how the relatively small percentage of Americans who buy new vehicles, how those people vote with their wallet.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: I mean, it is fair to say that EV sales will not be nearly close to the 50% mark that Biden had set, or generally speaking, to the targets that environmental groups have set to stop the worst effects of climate change. At least not in the U.S., right?
--:-- Camila Domonoske: I think the rest of the world will continue moving on this path to electrification much faster than the United States. And what that means for the economy and for the auto industry in general, we're just going to have to find out.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: Well, thank you so much, Camila, for all of this. I really appreciate it.
--:-- Camila Domonoske: Yeah, thanks for having me.
--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: That was Camila Domonoske, a correspondent with NPR's Business Desk. This episode was produced by Andrew Mambo. It was edited by Liana Simstrom and Cara Platoni. It was fact-checked by Will Chase and engineered by Robert Rodriguez. The rest of the Sunday Story team includes Justine Yan and Jenny Schmidt. Our fellow is Andrew Cerulnik. Irene Noguchi is our executive producer. I'm Ayesha Rascoe. Up First is back tomorrow with all the news you need to start your week. Until then, have a great rest of your weekend.
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--:-- Ayesha Rascoe: This message comes from BetterHelp. President Fernando Madeira describes how BetterHelp Online Therapy has helped him.
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