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--:-- Michelle Martin: President Trump has shaken up America's global alliances, with policy reversals and moves toward realignments that are being felt around the world. I'm not aligned with anybody. I'm aligned with the United States of America and for the good of the world. So how are other world leaders as well as thought leaders making sense of these big changes?
--:-- Michelle Martin: A major shock has been President Trump's tilt toward Russia in its war on Ukraine. First of all, he's not an isolationist. He's an ardent nationalist and much more comfortable with autocratic leaders than with leaders of liberal democracies.
--:-- Michelle Martin: What does that mean for future relations between the U.S. and its democratic allies? It has so many implications that they're almost hard to think through. Stay with us. We've got news you need to make sense of it in this special bonus episode of Up First from NPR News.
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--:-- Michelle Martin: After years of U.S. policies aimed at isolating Russia, the Trump administration is working with Russia to try to make a deal to end the war. Critics say Trump is appeasing Putin, even that Trump has forged a new alliance with Putin.
--:-- Michelle Martin: During a heated meeting in the White House with Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, Trump says that's not true. I'm not aligned with Putin. I'm not aligned with anybody. I'm aligned with the United States of America and for the good of the world.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Europeans and others are worried because what happens in Ukraine could have broader implications. So what do the shifting alliances mean for America and its role in the world?
--:-- Michelle Martin: Trump is saying, I don't care anymore about alliances. I'm not interested in your opinions. I'm going to do a deal with this dictator over your head. That's Anne Applebaum, a staff writer for The Atlantic, talking about Trump's recent posturing towards Russia.
--:-- Anne Applebaum: He's not an isolationist. He's an ardent nationalist and much more comfortable with autocratic leaders than with leaders of liberal democracies.
--:-- Anne Applebaum: What does that mean for future relations between the U.S. and its democratic allies? It has so many implications that they're almost hard to think through.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Okay, so if the U.S. says, "I don't care about alliances anymore," what does that mean for the U.S. and global stability?
--:-- Anne Applebaum: It has so many implications that they're almost hard to think through. There are economic implications. You know what happens to our trade relationships with Europe and with Asia?
--:-- Anne Applebaum: What about the U.S. companies that have enjoyed special favor in those markets? You know, U.S. defense companies, but also U.S. nuclear power companies, other kinds of big utility companies that have been welcomed by those countries because as a way of expressing their fealty to the United States?
--:-- Anne Applebaum: What happens to a series of trade agreements that have created easy and regular trade between all around the world? What happens to all kinds of treaties on, not just treaties on commerce, but treaties on the laws of war?
--:-- Anne Applebaum: All these things that have governed U.S. behavior and allied behavior all over the world for 80 years now disappear.
--:-- Leila Fadel: We also heard from Stephen Walt, a foreign policy expert at Harvard. He's concerned about the kinds of world leaders Trump seems comfortable with.
--:-- Stephen Walt: First of all, he's not an isolationist. He's an ardent nationalist and much more comfortable with autocratic leaders than with leaders of liberal democracies.
--:-- Stephen Walt: It's, you know, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Viktor Orban in Hungary, Mohammed bin Salman in Saudi Arabia. And I think in Trump's mind, a perfect world would be one where powerful leaders can get together and cut deals and then impose them on others without paying too much attention to the rule of law.
--:-- Stephen Walt: Like Applebaum, Walt is concerned that this positioning should shake up how Democratic allies view the U.S. If the United States is no longer a reliable ally, if it actually seems to be hostile to liberal democracy in Europe, then I think we're going to find that the countries we've been counting on in the past to support us on many international initiatives are going to be much less willing to do so.
--:-- Stephen Walt: But Walt has been critical of U.S. foreign policy and what he views as an overcommitment to allies and the expansion of NATO without clear benefits to the U.S.
--:-- Stephen Walt: So how does he think the U.S. should realign with allies? Well, there's no question Europe should be more responsible for its own defense and the United States should be shifting its attention and resources elsewhere.
--:-- Stephen Walt: I think I agree with that. But that should be done in a responsible, cooperative way and it should be done gradually over a period of five to ten years because Europe is going to need some time to develop its own security institutions, build up its forces.
--:-- Stephen Walt: We should be moving in that direction, but we should be doing that by treating them as our allies so that 10 years from now, we still have a good relationship with Europe and we can count on their diplomatic support and count on cooperating with them when unexpected events happen.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: Trump appears to be burning up the alliance.
--:-- Victoria Coates: No, I don't think so, Steve. I think President Trump is doing is acknowledging that 80 years on, the reason that some of the structures were put in place after World War II, which was actually largely to prevent another inter-Europe war, that those circumstances are no longer in place.
--:-- Victoria Coates: You know, a war between Germany and France is not our number one national security problem. Neither is Europe. So what does she make of the president's approach to Russia's war in Ukraine?
--:-- Victoria Coates: There's been no diplomacy to proceed to a conclusion of the war. We've had a lot of maximalist rhetoric. We had a lot of displays of support for Ukraine and declarations that Ukraine is a democracy and this is an existential threat to the West but we also had hundreds of thousands dead and a lot of destruction.
--:-- Victoria Coates: And as I said, no progress. So I think he is trying to change that paradigm.
--:-- Victoria Coates: In terms of how allies might be interpreting shifts in approach, Coates says visits to Washington from several European leaders, Prime Minister Keir Starmer from the U.K., President Emmanuel Macron of France, and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine tell a different story.
--:-- Victoria Coates: So that hardly looks to me like, you know, a Washington that is rejecting Europe.
--:-- A Martinez: My colleague spoke with EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaya Kalas.
--:-- Kaya Kalas: The European Union was formed in order to screw the United States. That's the purpose of it. And they've done a good job of it.
--:-- Kaya Kalas: But now I'm president. The European Union was formed so that there wouldn't be any wars in Europe anymore. And we have been succeeding with the members of the European Union that we don't have wars between ourselves.
--:-- Kaya Kalas: But the United States has always been our ally and friend. So I don't know where this talk comes from.
--:-- A Martinez: A.S. Kallis about her hopes for Ukraine.
--:-- Kaya Kalas: What the Americans are explaining is that when you have economic ties with the country, then it's also in your interest to work for the security of this country.
--:-- Kaya Kalas: You know, it's clear that Russia is the aggressor and Ukraine is the victim. So it's clear that we need to have very, very concrete security guarantees for Ukraine.
--:-- Kaya Kalas: And the strongest security guarantee that there is, is the NATO membership.
--:-- Kaya Kalas: President Trump, however, has said this about membership. But I can tell you that NATO you can forget about.
--:-- Kaya Kalas: But for Kallis, NATO membership doesn't just benefit Ukraine. She says Ukraine has one of the strongest armies at the moment.
--:-- Kaya Kalas: So to have a strong NATO, that would mean having Ukraine as a member.
--:-- Kaya Kalas: Do you think that Americans are taking the Russian threat seriously enough?
--:-- Kaya Kalas: Well, it's clear that we need to really explain how important this is also to America.
--:-- Kaya Kalas: I mean, if we don't get Russia right, we don't get China right either. And it's clear that Iran, Russia, North Korea, and more covertly China are working together to establish a new world order where might makes right.
--:-- Kaya Kalas: And that is dangerous to everybody, including the United States.
--:-- Kaya Kalas: So that's why it's not only Ukraine sovereignty and territorial integrity that is at stake, but it's much, much broader fight between the autocracies and the democracies of the world.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Leila Fado spoke with Winston Lord, a former U.S. ambassador to China, who was a close aide to the late foreign policymaker Henry Kissinger.
--:-- Winston Lord: I think Trump has done more damage to America's position in the world, not even mentioning what he's doing to our democracy at home, in one month than decades of Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan.
--:-- Winston Lord: Just take what's going to happen in Asia if this continues. China and North Korea are delighted at what going on.
--:-- Winston Lord: If he can sell out Ukraine he could easily sell out Taiwan.
--:-- Winston Lord: Your historic trip with Nixon to Beijing changed the fate of Taiwan.
--:-- Winston Lord: Will what's happening today under the Trump administration fundamentally change the U.S. approach?
--:-- Winston Lord: So it is premature to conclude conclusively what it's going to do about China and Taiwan.
--:-- Winston Lord: And so it'd be interesting to see how Trump's instinct to suck up the dictators and with people like Xi and to forget about commitments and just worry about our own transactional economic interests comes up against the hawks in the administration.
--:-- Winston Lord: But I must say that given the fact that he's made comments on Taiwan taking advantage of us, making the point they're far away, they ought to do more for their own defense, I'd be apprehensive if I were in Taiwan.
--:-- Winston Lord: How are other U.S. allies in Asia viewing these shifts in longstanding American foreign policy?
--:-- Winston Lord: With astonishment, and they're appalled.
--:-- Winston Lord: If this trend continues, no one can depend on the United States under Trump to come to their defense.
--:-- Winston Lord: There could be a real drift toward either accommodating China because they don't have America as a deterrent, or going after their own nuclear weapons.
--:-- Winston Lord: It's a disaster for Asia as well as Europe.
--:-- Michelle Martin: These are just some of the perspectives we've been hearing about how U.S. foreign policy is shifting under the Trump administration.
--:-- Michelle Martin: And that's it for this bonus episode of Up First.
--:-- Michelle Martin: We'll keep following this closely here at Up First and on Morning Edition, so keep listening for more news and analysis.
--:-- Michelle Martin: This episode was edited by Lisa Thompson, Arezou Rezvani, Reena Advani, and Olivia Hampton.
--:-- Michelle Martin: It was produced by Claire Murashima, Nia Dumas, Chris Thomas, Paige Waterhouse, Adam Bearne, Milton Guevara, and Ana Perez.
--:-- Michelle Martin: And don't forget, Up First airs on the weekend, too. Ayesha Rascoe and Scott Simon have the news.
--:-- Michelle Martin: It will be here in this feed or wherever you get your podcasts.
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