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--:-- Leila Fadel: Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson promised he'll get President Trump's tax and spending bill passed before tomorrow. The final vote in the House is this morning. Can the Speaker fulfill his promise to Trump?
--:-- A Martinez: I'm Martinez, that's Leila Fadel, and this is Up First from NPR News.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Financial watchdogs say the bill could add up to $5 trillion to the national debt. The U.S. already has near-record levels of debt and ballooning interest payments. Every fiscal warning sign is blinking red right now.
--:-- A Martinez: Does the bill have any economic payoff? And the trial of hip-hop mogul Sean Combs is over. He was found guilty on two of five counts, and the judge denied him bail. We'll tell you why.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Stay with us. We've got the news you need to start your day.
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--:-- Leila Fadel: This message comes from BetterHelp. President Fernando Madeira describes how BetterHelp Online Therapy has helped him.
--:-- Fernando Madeira: For me, sometimes I just need to go and talk to somebody that is not going to judge me, right? Is going to be there and going to listen to me. And I can start just saying, look, I'm not feeling right today. And it feels natural. I love it.
--:-- Leila Fadel: To get matched with a therapist, visit BetterHelp.com slash NPR for 10% off your first month.
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--:-- Leila Fadel: This message comes from NPR sponsor AARP. Where do you see your career in 12 years? What are you doing now to help you get there?
--:-- Eric Glass: The sooner you start enhancing your skills, the sooner you'll be ready. That's why AARP has management, finance, and small business reskilling courses, all to help your income live as long as you do. Because the steps you choose to take today will help you love what you do in the future.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Learn more at aarp.org slash skills.
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--:-- Leila Fadel: This is Eric Glass. On This American Life, we like stories that surprise you. For instance, imagine finding a new hobby and realizing... To do this hobby right, according to the ways of the masters, there's a pretty good chance that you're going to have to bend the law to get the materials that you need. If not break it. Yeah, to break international laws.
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--:-- Leila Fadel: After a nearly day-long stalemate that stretched into the early morning hours, House Republicans cleared a key hurdle for President Trump's massive tax and spending package. A group of GOP holdouts stalled a procedural vote for a while, but ultimately enough gave in to move the bill forward. Now Republicans are racing to approve the plan in time to get the bill to President Trump's desk by tomorrow's self-imposed July 4th deadline.
--:-- Claudia Grisalis: NPR congressional correspondent Claudia Grisalis has been following all this and joins us now. Hi, Claudia.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Hi, Claudia. So the Republican-led House wanted to get this done yesterday, but there were holdouts and discussions with them stretched through the night. How did the Republicans get this done?
--:-- Claudia Grisalis: Right. We've seen this movie a few times. Yeah. And so what we've seen and saw again last night is fiscal hawks and moderates opposed to the bill's Senate changes after it passed there earlier in the week. Moderates, for example, have been concerned about steeper cuts to Medicaid, which provides health care for low-income, elderly, and disabled Americans, while fiscal hawks said the cuts didn't go deep enough.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So this vote series was kept open since yesterday morning as these talks with holdouts and House Republican leaders continued. And we even saw some of this play out on the House floor right after a member of the Fiscally Conservative House Freedom Caucus. This is Congressman Andrew Clyde of Georgia voted no. We saw him immediately surrounded by leadership followed by an extended one on one with House Speaker Mike Johnson.
--:-- Claudia Grisalis: But the paralysis finally broke this morning after Clyde and several other no flipped to yes. And remember, these are tightly held chambers, and Johnson can only afford to lose three votes.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Did the holdouts get what they wanted?
--:-- Claudia Grisalis: Well, we're still learning the specifics of what Republican leaders agreed to do in order to sway them to yes. But what we do know is that for hours, more than half a dozen holdouts withheld their votes, And at least four at times five members, too many for Johnson's tight margins in the House, were no's.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So some of these holdouts wanted material changes to the bill, but Republican leaders argued it's too late in the process. So it's possible promises on future bills were made, but we'll have to wait and see. And they were also facing immense pressure from President Trump, who late into the night was posting on social media and telling them to get on board.
--:-- Claudia Grisalis: Now, Claudia, I know you've been reporting on this on the air with us. For a long time now, but just remind us what's in this bill and what made it so contentious.
--:-- Claudia Grisalis: Right, right. At the heart of the legislation is an extension of President Trump's 2017 tax cut program. It also ends taxes on tips and overtime, at least temporarily, which was a Trump campaign promise. The bill also includes new spending on defense and immigration enforcement, and it lifts the nation's debt ceiling by $5 trillion. And that's key because the debt ceiling will be hit this summer.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Now, to pay for all that, the bill cuts spending across a range of programs, most notably Medicaid. This is the joint federal and state program for roughly 70 million Americans. Now around 11 million could lose their coverage, making this a very contentious fight.
--:-- Claudia Grisalis: The Democrats, as we know, oppose the passage of this bill, and they've been very vocal about that. But is there anything they can do?
--:-- Leila Fadel: Right. The most they can really do is just stall the process. And that's what they're doing right now. House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries is extending his speech for as long as possible to hold up this final vote.
--:-- Claudia Grisalis: But for Republicans to get past that procedural vote was a huge hurdle. It could signal that the finish line is in sight. And it could take a few more hours. But assuming they have the votes, Republicans could make good on their promises to deliver this to Trump's desk by July 4th.
--:-- Leila Fadel: But we should note the fight is not over. Democrats will make this bill the centerpiece of their campaign to win back Congress in the next year.
--:-- Claudia Grisalis: That is NPR's Claudia Grisalis. Thank you, Claudia.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Thank you.
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--:-- Leila Fadel: As GOP leaders try to build support for the big tax cut and spending bill, they're running into some buzzkill from fiscal watchdogs. Various forecasters say the measure would likely add trillions of dollars to the federal debt over the next decade while doing very little to boost the economy.
--:-- Scott Horsley: NPR's Scott Horsley is here. So, Scott, the government is already in a pretty deep hole when it comes to debt. I mean, how much more digging would this do?
--:-- Scott Horsley: At least several trillion dollars worth. The precise figure varies depending on whose forecast you look at and what they include. But all the independent scorekeepers say this bill would add between three and five trillion dollars worth of additional red ink over the next decade.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Maya McGinnis, who heads the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, says that's not the direction the U.S. ought to be moving in right now.
--:-- Scott Horsley: Every fiscal warning sign is blinking red right now. Near record levels of debt, $22 trillion in additional borrowing over the coming decade. Record interest payments that are growing faster than other parts of the budget. And this makes that worse every single way.
--:-- Leila Fadel: The bill extends most of the tax cuts from the first Trump administration and adds some new tax breaks on top of that. The biggest tax cuts go to the wealthiest taxpayers while families making less than about a year would on average end up worse off under this bill.
--:-- Scott Horsley: That because the tax savings those families would receive would be outweighed by cuts to safety net programs like Medicaid and food stamps.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Any economic payoff at all from all the tax cuts?
--:-- Scott Horsley: To hear the White House tell it this bill is going to supercharge economic growth, but most outside experts are very skeptical of those White House numbers.
--:-- Leila Fadel: When forecasters at the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office looked at the House version of the bill, they found only modest economic gains, and those were dwarfed by the higher borrowing costs.
--:-- Scott Horsley: So McGinnis says the overall effect on the government's finances are likely to be negative. For months now, people who support the bill have been saying, don't worry, this is going to cause massive growth. We're going to grow our way out of the whole problem.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And what you see when you look at a dynamic score is, no, that's not the case at all. When the government has to borrow all this extra money, that not only raises the interest cost for taxpayers, It also drives up interest rates for private borrowers like you and me.
--:-- Scott Horsley: It makes it more expensive for families who try to buy a house or businesses that want to build a plant or buy new equipment. So that could be a further drag on economic growth.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So what did the president or congressional leaders have to do to get this bill across the finish line at this point?
--:-- Scott Horsley: Yeah, both the president and GOP leaders in the House are using all their powers of persuasion or, if not persuasion, just raw political muscle. Some lawmakers don't like all this extra debt. Others are worried about the fallout from the spending cuts.
--:-- Leila Fadel: But even before the votes were tallied, McGinnis acknowledged none of that makes a lot of difference in the current political environment.
--:-- Scott Horsley: The remarkable thing is there are so many members of Congress who are concerned about this bill and frankly know it is the wrong bill for the moment that we are in.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And the answer appears to be that pressure is working. Of course, all these House lawmakers are going to have to face the voters next year. President Trump will not.
--:-- Scott Horsley: Yeah, the midterms right around the corner. NPR's Scott Horsley. Thanks a lot, Scott.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Good to be with you.
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--:-- Leila Fadel: Hip-hop mogul Sean Combs received a mixed verdict in his federal criminal trial in Manhattan yesterday. He was found not guilty of two of the most serious charges, racketeering and sex trafficking, but found guilty of two counts of a lesser prostitution-related charge.
--:-- Anastasia Seulkes: Joining us now is NPR culture correspondent Anastasia Seulkes. She was at the court yesterday for the verdict, and a warning this conversation includes mention of physical and sexual violence.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Good morning. Good morning, Layla.
--:-- Anastasia Seulkes: So walk us briefly through the verdict.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Sure thing. In short, Sean Combs was charged with sex trafficking, racketeering, and transportation to engage in prostitution. And all of those accusations were related to two ex-girlfriends of Combs, a singer named Cassandra Cassie Ventura, and a woman who testified under the pseudonym Jane.
--:-- Anastasia Seulkes: And both Jane and Ventura claimed they had been sexually trafficked to various locations across the country to participate in drug and sex marathons orchestrated by Combs with male sex workers. And Combs referred to these events as freak-offs or hotel nights.
--:-- Leila Fadel: The women alleged that he had forced them to participate, and the defense argued those were all consensual encounters.
--:-- Anastasia Seulkes: So the jury found him not guilty of sex trafficking. The government has also alleged that Combs used his vast business empire, which spans music, fashion, alcohol, media, and that he used some of his employees to aid and hide a number of other crimes, including bribery, obstruction of justice, and witness tampering.
--:-- Leila Fadel: That's the racketeering charge, and he was also acquitted of that charge.
--:-- Anastasia Seulkes: Okay but the jury did find him guilty of one set of charges right. That right Transportation to engage in prostitution. Some folks may have heard of that crime referred to as the Man Act and that's essentially bringing people across state lines for prostitution.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So this jury, which was racially diverse and comprised of eight men and four women, found him guilty of two counts of that. But those are far less serious charges than the others.
--:-- Anastasia Seulkes: If Combs had been found guilty of racketeering and sex trafficking, he would have been facing as much as life in prison. Each of the prostitution-related decisions instead carries a maximum sentence of 10 years apiece.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Now, Anastasia, you were at the court yesterday. What was that like?
--:-- Anastasia Seulkes: Well, Leila, this whole trial has been a circus. I've been in court for many of the days. There have been all the regular media figures that you'd expect, but both the main courtroom and various overflow rooms have been packed with fans, tourists, sometimes families with small kids, TikTokers, YouTubers, all kinds of folks.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And yesterday was no different. When the verdict was announced yesterday, you could hear gasps and cheers. Combs' family was crying. Some of his defense lawyers were crying. And after the verdict was read, Combs was down on the floor behind the defense table kneeling in gratitude.
--:-- Anastasia Seulkes: So after yesterday's verdict, where do things stand now?
--:-- Leila Fadel: Yesterday afternoon, the judge in this trial, Arun Subramanian, denied Combs' bail per AP. The judge pointed out to Combs' defense team, they had admitted in court that he has a long history of violence. So he decided Combs will remain in custody until his sentence hearing.
--:-- Anastasia Seulkes: That's NPR's Anastasia Seulkes. Thank you so much.
--:-- Leila Fadel: You bet.
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--:-- Leila Fadel: And that's Up First for Thursday, July 3rd. I'm Leila Fadel. And I'm A Martinez. You can listen to this podcast sponsor-free while financially supporting public media with Up First Plus. Learn more at plus.npr.org.
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--:-- Leila Fadel: Today's episode of Up First was edited by Jason Breslow, Kelsey Snell, Kevin Drew, Rafael Nam, Jacob Ganz, Janaya Williams, and Alice Woelfle. It was produced by Ziad Buchh, Nia Dumas, and Christopher Thomas. We get engineering support from Stacey Abbott, and our technical director is Zac Coleman.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Join us again tomorrow. We'll be right back.
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--:-- Leila Fadel: You get fewer chances to tap fast forward on your podcast player. On the plus side, you get to support something you care about. On the minus side, you like challenges and think this makes it too easy. So why don't you join us on the plus side of things with NPR Plus. Learn more and sign up at plus.npr.org.
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--:-- Leila Fadel: Military commanders, intelligence officials, diplomatic power players, they know things you may not about where the world is headed. And we will pull back the curtain on what they're thinking on sources and methods. NPR's new national security podcast. Our team will help you understand America's shifting role in the world. Listen to sources and methods from NPR.
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