--:-- Leila Fadel: The leader of Hamas, who is believed to be the architect of the October 7th attack on Israel, has been killed. Does the death of Yahya Sinwar create an opening for the war in Gaza to end?
--:-- A Martinez: I'm Leila Fadel, that's A Martinez, and this is Up First from NPR News.
--:-- Leila Fadel: With a new Democrat on the ballot, we check in with voters who once told us they disapproved of both President Biden and former President Trump.
--:-- A Martinez: I am really 50-50 right now.
--:-- Leila Fadel: More on how their views of the race have changed since Vice President Harris became the Democratic candidate.
--:-- A Martinez: And President Biden is in Berlin today to meet with European leaders for the last time as president.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Stay with us. We've got all the news you need to start your day.
--:-- Announcer (Voiceover): This message comes from NPR sponsor Adobe. Introducing the all-new Adobe Acrobat Studio, now with AI-powered PDF spaces.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Israel's military spokesman Daniel Hagari delivered this news to Israelis and the world late last night.
--:-- Daniel Hagari: Yahya Senwar, the leader of Hamas terrorist organization who was responsible for the October 7th massacre is dead.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Yahya Sinwar was the head of the Palestinian group Hamas and was Israel's number one most wanted man in Gaza.
--:-- Daniel Hagari: He's considered the mastermind of the attack last year that killed 1,200 people in Israel, according to the Israeli government, and sparked a response from Israel that's killed more than 42,000 Palestinians in Gaza, according to Gaza health officials.
--:-- Leila Fadel: The military says Sinwar was killed in Rafah in the south.
--:-- Hadil Alshalchi: So we just heard from Israel's military spokesman. How did they wind up killing Sinwar?
--:-- Leila Fadel: So the Israeli military has been after Sinwar for exactly a year since the attacks of October 7th, but then he ended up being killed by chance.
--:-- Hadil Alshalchi: The military said on Wednesday, forces fired shells at a building they'd seen three Hamas militants run into. The building collapsed. And that's when troops said they found the body later identified as Sinwar's lying there in the rubble with a bulletproof vest, grenades and surrounded with just over $10,000 in cash.
--:-- Leila Fadel: You know, this is the latest high-profile killing of a Hamas leader after two other key leaders were killed over the summer.
--:-- Hadil Alshalchi: And of course, it brings up that important question. Who will now take over Hamas?
--:-- Leila Fadel: His right-hand man so far has been his brother, Mohamed Sinwar, who's involved in the military side of things.
--:-- Hadil Alshalchi: But there are also others, you know, who have been active outside of Gaza, representing Hamas and Qatar and Turkey for years, like Khaled Mish'al or Hamas' deputy chairman Khalil al-Hayye.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And then Hamas confirmed Sinwar's killing on Friday, sounding defiant in a statement saying that Israel killing its leaders doesn't mean the end of the Hamas movement.
--:-- Hadil Alshalchi: And the group also called his death quote painful and distressing but that Sinwar is now an icon for the Palestinian people.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Okay, now mention that you in Tel Aviv, but what the reaction there been like?
--:-- Hadil Alshalchi: Right, so on the streets here in Tel Aviv, I heard some celebration. There was clapping, cheering, music blasting, and then the families of the hostages held in Gaza said they hoped that this would finally open the door to releasing their loved ones.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And then Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke last night, saying that his ultimate obligation was to bring back the remaining hostages.
--:-- Hadil Alshalchi: There's about 101 people left, dozens who are still believed to be alive.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And then Netanyahu spoke to the people of Gaza. While this is not the end of the war in Gaza, it's the beginning of the end.
--:-- Hadil Alshalchi: This war can end tomorrow if Hamas lays down its arms and returns our hostages.
--:-- Leila Fadel: But in Gaza itself, the tone was mixed.
--:-- Hadil Alshalchi: We heard from Palestinians there who called Senwar a martyr and mourned him.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And then others expressed relief he was gone and had their own message for Netanyahu.
--:-- Hadil Alshalchi: Okay, now that you've killed Sinwar, end the war. And let us go back to our homes.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Yeah, right. I mean, that's the big question, right? I mean, will this now end the war in Gaza?
--:-- Hadil Alshalchi: Right, exactly. So actually, that was the main message of President Biden last night.
--:-- Leila Fadel: He said, quote, now is the time to move on.
--:-- Hadil Alshalchi: Basically, it's time to breathe new life back into the ceasefire talks, which have been stalled for weeks.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So a former Israeli military intelligence officer told me yesterday, could be some optimism here.
--:-- Hadil Alshalchi: Michael Milstein said Israel and the U.S. have long argued that Sinwar has been the main obstacle in reaching a deal.
--:-- Leila Fadel: But some Hamas leaders based outside of Gaza have always been a little bit more willing to give and take.
--:-- Hadil Alshalchi: As for Netanyahu, he's been at the mercy of his right-wing partners who threatened they'll topple his government if Israeli troops withdraw from Gaza.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So some Palestinian analysts are saying reaching a deal is in Netanyahu's hands.
--:-- Hadil Alshalchi: What does he want and what does Israel want?
--:-- Leila Fadel: NPR's Adil Alshalchi in Tel Aviv. Thank you very much.
--:-- Hadil Alshalchi: You're welcome.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Back in May, NPR put together a pair of focus groups with so-called double haters, voters that disapproved of both former President Donald Trump and President Biden.
--:-- A Martinez: Now, a lot has changed since then. The race is now between Vice President Harris and Trump, and it's closer than ever.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So we want to understand how those voters might make up their minds.
--:-- A Martinez: NPR went back to these very same people this week to find out which way they're leaning.
--:-- Leila Fadel: NPR correspondent Mara Eliasson joins me now.
--:-- Mara Eliasson: Hi, Mara.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So much has changed since May. Are there still people who consider themselves double haters now that they have an entirely different Democrat in the race?
--:-- Mara Eliasson: Yes, there are still a few double haters left. There are some true undecided voters.
--:-- Leila Fadel: It's a tiny little sliver. In the battleground states, it's estimated that only about 6% of people are truly undecided between the candidates or between going out and voting or staying home.
--:-- Mara Eliasson: And we put these focus groups together with the help of Rich Tao of Engageous and Sago Market Research.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And these voters were all Trump to Biden swing voters.
--:-- Mara Eliasson: Most of them live in swing states. All 12 at the start were self-identified double haters.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And it's important to remember that these focus groups are not scientific.
--:-- Mara Eliasson: They give us what we call anecdata. Polling gives us a sense of how many voters feel a certain way. Focus groups help us figure out why they feel a certain way.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So of the 10 springtime double haters by October four are locked in or leaning Trump.
--:-- Mara Eliasson: Five are locked in or leaning Harris, and one was still certain he wouldn't vote for either one and instead will write in a candidate.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So how did Harris becoming the nominee change the way these voters see the race?
--:-- Mara Eliasson: Well, the people who are voting for her, compared with how they felt about Biden, they are generally much more positive, much more excited.
--:-- Leila Fadel: None of the nine voters said that they would hold her accountable for any of Biden's missteps, so she clearly has been able to separate herself from Biden.
--:-- Mara Eliasson: But it's also true that the movement toward Harris seems to be more of an anti-Trump sentiment than a pro-Harris sentiment.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Trump is much more clearly defined and in a negative way.
--:-- Mara Eliasson: She's a bit of a blank slate.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And I thought it was particularly interesting to hear their responses when Rich asked them to say how they feel when they see Harris on TV.
--:-- Mara Eliasson: What's their emotion? Doubtful. Dumbfounded. She doesn't make any sense. Hopeful. Also hopeful, but louder than Sherilyn.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And here they are when he asked the same question about Trump.
--:-- Mara Eliasson: Nervous. Apoplectic. Hopeful. Discouraged.
--:-- Leila Fadel: We also heard them respond to how they'd feel if each candidate won.
--:-- Mara Eliasson: And it was clear that voters are less afraid of her.
--:-- Leila Fadel: In other words, win or lose, they don't think Harris will undermine the election in any way.
--:-- Mara Eliasson: There's much more fear around Trump and political violence because he has repeatedly refused to say he would accept the results of any election that he didn't win.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Now, all 12 of these voters were Biden voters in 2020, and at least four of them seem likely to go back to voting for Trump.
--:-- Mara Eliasson: So how big of a red flag is that for the Harris campaign?
--:-- Leila Fadel: I think it's a very big red flag.
--:-- Mara Eliasson: Again, this is anecdata, but it's an example of how she hasn't been able to close the sale.
--:-- Leila Fadel: She still isn't doing as well as Biden did back in 2020 at the same point in the race with key Democratic groups like African-Americans, Hispanics and young people.
--:-- Mara Eliasson: And Piers Mara Leis, and thank you so much.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Thank you.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: President Biden is in Berlin today to meet with European leaders for the last time while in office.
--:-- Leila Fadel: It's a farewell trip of sorts to a region that has been front and center in his presidency since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: And it comes as the U.S. is poised to elect a new president, while the outcome of the war in Ukraine remains uncertain.
--:-- Leila Fadel: NPR's Berlin correspondent Rob Schmitz joins us now to talk about Biden's trip.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: So President Biden is going to be joined by leaders from France, Britain and Germany.
--:-- Leila Fadel: What's the significance, Rob?
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Yeah, America's relationship with Europe is stronger than ever, A, and that's largely due to the work that President Biden has done these past four years.
--:-- Leila Fadel: After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, President Biden was a guiding force in showing support for Ukraine, for democracy in Europe, and he reinvigorated a transatlantic spirit that had been left languishing for years before he took office.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said this and more about Biden's trip earlier this week in an address to the German parliament.
--:-- Leila Fadel: In A he told parliament he grateful for Biden cooperation over the years and that Biden quote stands for an incredible improvement in that cooperation between Europe and the U
--:-- Rob Schmitz: And that was a not-so-subtle jab at former President Trump, who was a constant critic of Germany, especially in the EU as well, over trade and regional security issues.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So speaking of Trump, he's running for office again.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: So what do European leaders like Schultz think about the possibility of a second Trump presidency?
--:-- Leila Fadel: Yeah, I'd venture to say here that for leaders in this part of Europe, they're very worried about this.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: In a recent survey by the German think tank, Kürbisch Stiftung, 80 percent of Germans polled say another Trump presidency would damage transatlantic relations.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Trump has cast doubts on continued American support for Ukraine.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: He's even refused to say whether he wants Ukraine to even win against Russia.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Should he become president, Europe would be forced to try and fill a gap in U.S. support for Ukraine.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: And simply put, they would not be able to fill that gap.
--:-- Leila Fadel: In that scenario, Germany in particular would be hard-pressed to bolster its own security.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: It's in the process of trying to modernize its military, and it's doing that very slowly.
--:-- Leila Fadel: The last time Trump held office, the former president mused about the U.S. leaving NATO.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: He ordered the Pentagon to withdraw 12,000 American troops from Germany.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Biden later reversed that decision.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: But should Trump win, German politicians, I think, would be concerned about their country's own security, and they'd likely be forced to pick up the pace on rebuilding the country's military.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And that would cost hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars at a time when Germany's economy is struggling.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: So what would that mean then for Germany's role in Europe?
--:-- Leila Fadel: Yeah, I mean, most acutely, it would mean that there would be even more pressure for Chancellor Olaf Scholz to leave office.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: He and his coalition government have historically poor public support at the moment.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And with a national election coming next year in Germany, we're looking at a likely change in leadership here in Germany anyway.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: A Trump presidency could also help further fuel the rising popularity of far-right parties, not only in Germany but throughout Europe.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So it could have broad political implications throughout the continent.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: And one more thing really quick, Rob.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Have they considered what a Harris presidency might mean? Would it be a continuation of what Biden has done with them?
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Yeah, they definitely, I think European leaders in this part of Europe definitely see Harris as a definite continuation of Biden's policies.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And more importantly, and most importantly, continued support for Ukraine and its defense against Russia.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: All right, that's NPR's Berlin correspondent, Rob Schmitz. Rob, thanks.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Thank you.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And that's a first for Friday, October 18th.
--:-- A Martinez: I'm Amy Martinez.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And I'm Layla Falden, here to remind you that Up First airs on the weekend, too.
--:-- A Martinez: Ayesha Roscoe and Scott Simon have the news.
--:-- Leila Fadel: It'll be here in the speed or wherever you get your podcasts.
--:-- A Martinez: And today's episode of Up First was edited by Hannah Block, Kelsey Snell, Nick Spicer, Lisa Thompson, and Alice Wolfley.
--:-- Leila Fadel: It was produced by Paige Waterhouse, Nia Dumas, and Katie Klein.
--:-- A Martinez: Our executive producer is Erica Aguilar.
--:-- Leila Fadel: We get engineering support from Stacey Abbott.
--:-- A Martinez: Our technical director is Andy Huther.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Join us again tomorrow. God bless you.
