--:-- [Theme music fades out]
--:-- Scott Simon: It's day two of the U.S. brokered peace deal between Hamas and Israel. The clock is ticking on the negotiated exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: I'm Aisha Roscoe with Up First from NPR News.
--:-- Scott Simon: Hamas is preparing to release the remaining hostages as Israeli troops withdraw from parts of Gaza. We'll have more on that.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: Plus, the Trump administration on Friday started laying off thousands more federal employees as the government shutdown closes out its second week.
--:-- Scott Simon: We're also going to take a look at the health care subsidies that are about to expire and why they're at the center of the current shutdown.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: So stay with us. We have the news you need to start your weekend.
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--:-- Ira Glass: On This American Life, we tell real-life stories, really good ones.
--:-- Scott Simon: My mother said, I'm sorry that you weren't here because Father Sager was here visiting, and he found a very nice orphanage for you.
--:-- Ira Glass: And I said, but I'm not an orphan.
--:-- Scott Simon: Surprising stories in your podcast feed, This American Life.
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--:-- Carrie Kahn: After two years of fighting, Israel and Hamas have agreed to a peace deal. It's only been in place for a couple of days, and there are still a lot of unknowns.
--:-- Scott Simon: But one of the earlier, more concrete steps involves the release of Israeli hostages held since the October 7, 2023 attack in exchange for roughly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: NPR's Carrie Kahn joins us now from Tel Aviv. Carrie, thanks for being with us. Good morning.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: What have you been hearing from Gaza now that Israeli troops have pulled back?
--:-- Anas Baba: We are seeing a massive movement of people coming out, trying to reclaim some of their lives, assessing damage, just taking in the sheer devastation and destruction of Gaza after two years of war.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: NPR's reporter, Anas Baba, who is in Gaza City, sent us amazing images and testimonies of this flood of people on foot walking amidst rubble.
--:-- Anas Baba: They're coming from south to north toward Gaza City, which has just been under this punishing massive offensive by Israel and is in ruins.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: Baba says for the first time, there are no Israeli bombardments or airstrikes and people are out trying to find shelter, clearing rubble.
--:-- Anas Baba: He says they are on the move. It feels like I'm witnessing a place being born again.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: But Gazans here, they don't wait for permission to live. They carry hope like oxygen.
--:-- Anas Baba: Gaza is not only rubble. Gaza is resilience. And what I see today is people sacred and stubborn, but writing themselves back into existence.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: We're now watching for promised surge of aid through the UN allowed back into Gaza soon.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: That'll include food, shelters and vital medical supplies.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: And meanwhile, Israel waits for the return of 20 living and as many as 28 dead hostages.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: What is the mood in Israel?
--:-- Carrie Kahn: There is celebration. There's hope and cautious optimism, I'd say.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: I was at the downtown Tel Aviv Public Plaza, dubbed Hostage Square, where there has been a lot of hugging and an adulation for President Trump for personally brokering this deal.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: I also spent time yesterday with the nursing director of Bellinson Hospital that's in central Israel.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: A third of the released hostages will be taken there.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: I spoke with Dr Michal Steinman and she says everything is ready for them rooms medical care family areas
--:-- Carrie Kahn: And she also said this time will be different since these hostages released are the last ones.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: They will not be leaving anyone behind, which was very traumatic for those freed in the past.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: I'm telling them, welcome home. So glad to see you. So glad and you're in good hands.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: You're in good hands. You came home. We are here. We'll take care of you.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: She says reintroducing food will be difficult and will be gradual.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: They will get rehab and all the medical care necessary.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: What are some of the challenges ahead, Carrie?
--:-- Carrie Kahn: There are a lot, but I'd say the top two are disarming Hamas and governance of Gaza after the initial hostage and prisoner detainee exchange is over.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: Trump's plan calls for an international so-called Board of Peace to take over Gaza.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: Which will be run by Trump and former British Prime Minister Tony Blair.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: There are a lot of details about how that will be constituted and run.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: Late last night, Hamas issued a statement to say they would not accept any, quote, foreign guardianship and that governing Gaza was a Palestinian matter.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: Hamas-run civil police force has already been seen on the streets in areas where the Israeli army withdrew.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: Yesterday, too, we heard Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talking tough like he always does, reiterating that Hamas must disarm or face a resumption of military action.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: Kerry Kahn in Tel Aviv, thanks so much.
--:-- Carrie Kahn: You're welcome.
--:-- Russell Vogt: The rifts have begun. That's how Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vogt announced on X that reductions in force are happening.
--:-- Russell Vogt: That means more federal employees will lose their jobs.
--:-- Russell Vogt: All of this unfolds as the government shutdown rolls on.
--:-- Ron Elving: To tell us more about that, as well as what the Hamas-Israel peace deal may mean for the Trump administration, NPR senior political contributor Ron Elving joins us.
--:-- Ron Elving: Ron, thanks for being with us. Good to be with you, Scott.
--:-- Ron Elving: How big an achievement is this ceasefire for President Trump?
--:-- Ron Elving: We are still in the first phase of watching this agreement play out, but even now, It's a significant achievement, just getting these parties, Hamas with all its factions, Israel with all its factions, all coming together on an agreement on these terms.
--:-- Ron Elving: So it's an enormously welcome breakthrough.
--:-- Ron Elving: And if it holds up, it would certainly be a highlight of Trump's presidency, perhaps reminiscent of the way the Camp David Accords were the pinnacle of Jimmy Carter's presidency.
--:-- Ron Elving: But we haven't seen the return of the hostages yet.
--:-- Ron Elving: We still don't know whether that will lead to the next steps in the peace plan or potentially unleash more violence.
--:-- Ron Elving: If Trump and his team can keep Bibi Netanyahu on board, and if he in turn can control his hardliners, this will indeed be a monument to peace and to Trump and his administration, and they will deserve a great deal of credit.
--:-- Ron Elving: Staying with foreign policy for a moment, the president said yesterday he plans an additional 100% tariff on China starting November 1st or sooner.
--:-- Ron Elving: Should we take his words as policy or posturing?
--:-- Ron Elving: China announced some new restrictions on the export of rare earths, which are minerals crucial in high-tech manufacturing.
--:-- Ron Elving: Trump erupted with promises of payback.
--:-- Ron Elving: He said he would raise tariffs 100% on everything Chinese.
--:-- Ron Elving: Now, perhaps we should be accustomed by now to this kind of threat from Trump, especially to gaudy numbers like 100%.
--:-- Ron Elving: But Wall Street took it seriously, had its worst day in six months with deep losses in the midst of what has been a long-running rally for stocks.
--:-- Ron Elving: So what happens next?
--:-- Ron Elving: We've seen this thrust in Perry before.
--:-- Ron Elving: Will Chinese President Xi's trip to the U.S. be canceled and which side will do the canceling?
--:-- Ron Elving: And we wait to see how much this disrupts the most important trading relationship in the world, the relationship between the two largest economic powers.
--:-- Ron Elving: U.S. government shut down heading into its third week. Layoffs of federal workers have begun.
--:-- Ron Elving: When asked by a reporter yesterday how many layoffs he'd authorized, the president said a lot.
--:-- Ron Elving: And it will be Democrat-oriented because we figure, you know, they started this thing, so they should be Democrat It be a lot and we announce the numbers over the next couple of days but it be a lot of people all because of the Democrats
--:-- Ron Elving: I think he blaming the Democrats
--:-- Ron Elving: What more can you tell us?
--:-- Ron Elving: Yes, he continues to blame the Democrats, and he is openly punishing the people in blue states, whether they're Democrats or not.
--:-- Ron Elving: I think we all know at this point that the impasse between lawmakers and Congress has caused federal workers to be furloughed, but fired.
--:-- Ron Elving: Their jobs are just as mandated by legislation as they were before, They have been assured their jobs were protected and they would get back pay.
--:-- Ron Elving: Now the White House is casting doubt on both.
--:-- Ron Elving: And the cuts are concentrated in some highly sensitive departments, such as health and treasury.
--:-- Ron Elving: We've seen the figure of 4,000 already and more.
--:-- Ron Elving: And the aggressiveness of these firings is causing some heartburn among Republicans, as well as the targeted Democrats.
--:-- Ron Elving: Republicans have voters who work for the federal government, too, and even more who depend on the government for services and for other things as well.
--:-- Ron Elving: Ron, are we reaching the point where enough people are feeling the effects of the shutdown that we can expect some movement to bring it to an end?
--:-- Ron Elving: People are feeling it, Scott, at airports, in farm country, wherever people do business with the government in any way or depend on it in any way.
--:-- Ron Elving: Republicans had hoped those people would blame the Democrats and put pressure on them.
--:-- Ron Elving: Some do and some have.
--:-- Ron Elving: But polls show more people are blaming the president and his party.
--:-- Ron Elving: So can there be an end in sight?
--:-- Ron Elving: Yes, when both sides are willing to talk seriously about the coming cuts to health care, Cuts that will hurt people in red states as much as in blue states and very possibly hurt them more.
--:-- Ron Elving: Some of Trump's biggest counties have very high rates of dependence on Medicaid.
--:-- Ron Elving: Republicans say they are willing to talk about health care and its costs after the shutdown ends.
--:-- Ron Elving: But if they have ideas and a willingness to address this issue, people who are suffering are very likely to ask, why can't they talk now?
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: Democrats and Republicans in Congress can't seem to agree on a spending bill.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: At the heart of their disagreement are the subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, which makes access to health care more affordable to millions of Americans.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: And extending these subsidies is a major sticking point for the Democrats.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: But who's relying on these subsidies and what will losing them mean?
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: We're joined now by NPR's Selena Simmons-Duffin.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: Hi, Selena.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: Hi, Aisha.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: OK, so we're talking about Obamacare or the Affordable Care Act marketplaces, right?
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: That's the focus.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: Those are the health insurance marketplaces where 24 million people buy their coverage.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: And, you know, 24 million is a record for enrollment in these plans.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: But that's still not a huge slice of the population.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: It's only about 7 percent.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: So why is it such a big political issue if it's not that many people directly affected?
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: Well, you know, one reason is that it's an influential group.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: You know, the people who need to buy insurance like this don't get insurance through their jobs and they don't qualify for Medicare or Medicaid, which are the public programs for seniors and low income people.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: So often there are, you know, small business owners or employees, they're farmers or ranchers, and they really have no alternatives to these marketplaces.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: They go to healthcare.gov or their state marketplace and basically find a plan there or bust.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: A few years ago, the federal government changed the premium subsidy system to make these plans much more affordable for people.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: And that financial help is what the current political stalemate is about.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: If Congress does nothing, the subsidies run out at the end of the year.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: Is that correct?
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: Yeah, exactly.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: And if they do expire, enrollees are going to face much higher health insurance premiums next year.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: The average increase is 114%, according to KFF, which is a nonpartisan health research organization
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: So one interesting fact is that three in four of these enrollees live in states that President Trump won in last year election
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: There has been a huge amount of growth in enrollment
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: Enrollment has tripled in Texas and Louisiana and Mississippi in the last few years.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: So this is going to hit Republican voters really hard.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: So what does the public think about these subsidies?
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: The public really likes them.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: 78% of the public thinks that Congress should extend this financial help, including most Trump supporters.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: That's according to a recent poll by KFF.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: The basic divide in Congress right now is with Democrats saying the subsidies have to be extended or it's going to be catastrophic for consumers.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: Most people don't have an extra thousand dollars in their monthly budget, for instance, right?
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: So millions of people are expected to drop coverage and become uninsured.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: Some Republican lawmakers have expressed worries about these premium hikes, but conservative policy groups are really adamant that Republicans need to stand firm.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: They've always opposed the Affordable Care Act, and they really don't like the enhanced subsidies.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: They say there might be concerns about short-term premium increases, but long-term, it's going to be too expensive for the government.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: The Congressional Budget Office estimates it'll cost the government $350 billion over the next decade if the enhanced subsidies were to be extended permanently.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: Are there any signs of a solution to get the government back open?
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: At this point, no.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: There are some efforts for a bipartisan compromise, but there aren't serious formal talks between the parties that could lead to a breakthrough in the near future.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: And there is a timing crunch here on the health insurance side.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: Open enrollment begins in Idaho next week.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: It opens everywhere else November 1st.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: And as people go in and start shopping for a plan, many of them are going to see these eye-popping premiums.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: So even if they haven't been following the political debate, the issue is going to get very real for them when they start to see those numbers.
--:-- Scott Simon: That's NPR's health policy correspondent, Selena Simmons-Duffin. Thank you so much.
--:-- Selena Simmons-Duffin: You're welcome.
--:-- Scott Simon: And that's Up First for Saturday, October 11th, 2025.
--:-- Scott Simon: I'm Scott Simon.
--:-- Aisha Roscoe: And I'm Aisha Roscoe.
--:-- Dave Mistich: Produced today's podcast with assistance from Ryan Bank and Elena Quarick.
--:-- Scott Simon: Our editor has been Deepa Shivaram along with Melissa Gray, Diane Weber, and Miguel Masias.
--:-- Scott Simon: Andy Craig directed our technical director was David Greenberg with engineering support from Zo Vangenhoven, Nisha Hines, and Valentina Rodriguez-Sanchez.
--:-- Scott Simon: Our senior supervising editor is Shannon Rhodes.
--:-- Scott Simon: E.B. Stone is our executive producer.
--:-- Scott Simon: And our deputy managing editor is Jim Cain.
--:-- Scott Simon: Tomorrow on the Sunday Story, a look at how immigration and customs enforcement, or ICE, is changing under the Trump administration.
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--:-- Scott Simon: On the ThruLine podcast from NPR, what it takes to report on war.
--:-- Scott Simon: Great sleep deprivation.
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--:-- Scott Simon: When journalists are silenced, the truth is going to be buried with them.
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