--:-- [Theme music fades out]
--:-- Rob Schmitz: A 60-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has gone into effect. This has been the deadliest conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in decades. So what happens now for people displaced by war?
--:-- A. Martinez: I'm Rob Schmitz, that's A. Martinez, and this is Up First from NPR News.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Security forces dispersed thousands of protesters in Pakistan's capital last night. All you could see was T.A. gas and it was just a lot of chaos. They're demanding jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan be released.
--:-- A. Martinez: Will they get their way?
--:-- Rob Schmitz: And President-elect Trump has threatened tariffs against Canada, Mexico and China in a bid to stem the flow of fentanyl and unauthorized migrants. That is an unachievable goal. No country will accomplish that.
--:-- A. Martinez: Stay with us. We've got all the news you need to start your day.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: This message comes from BetterHelp. It's only human to ask others for advice, like turning to your barista, hairdresser, or a taxi driver for life advice. But when you're looking for help about relationships, anxiety, depression, or other clinical issues, they may not have all the right answers.
--:-- A. Martinez: Instead, get guidance from a licensed therapist online with BetterHelp. Visit betterhelp.com slash NPR for 10% off your first month.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: This message comes from Lisa. Lisa mattresses are meticulously designed and assembled in the USA for exceptional quality. And each mattress is designed with specific sleep positions and feel preferences in mind.
--:-- A. Martinez: Plus, they back it all up with free shipping, easy returns, and a 100-night sleep trial. Visit Lisa.com for 25% off mattresses, plus get an extra $50 off with promo code NPR.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: That's L-E-E-S-A.com, promo code NPR.
--:-- A. Martinez: Support for NPR and the following message come from USPS.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Celebratory gunfire was heard in Lebanon's capital this morning, marking the start of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire.
--:-- A. Martinez: The deal aims to end the fighting across the Israeli-Lebanese border that has killed thousands of people since it was ignited by the war in Gaza last year.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: It was brokered by the U.S. and France and announced by President Biden.
--:-- A. Martinez: For more on the deal, we're joined now by NPR's Lauren Freyer in Sidon in southern Lebanon.
--:-- Lauren Freyer: So, people were celebrating the ceasefire in Beirut. What was the scene like?
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Yeah, I was going to set my alarm for 4 a.m. Turns out I didn't need to. I was awoken by this celebratory gunfire erupting across the city and sort of mixed with the dawn call to prayer from mosques across the city.
--:-- Lauren Freyer: Dogs started howling into the night. Even before the first light, evacuees started heading south to try to see if their homes are still there.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: I'm on the coastal highway. There are minivans packed with families, belongings tied on car roofs, people blasting music, beeping their horns, cheering.
--:-- Lauren Freyer: A young boy knocked on my car window and handed me a poster of Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader who was killed in an Israeli airstrike in late September.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: So the mood is definitely festive here, but a lot of these people may find that they don't have homes standing anymore.
--:-- Lauren Freyer: Have you been able to talk to people along the way? I mean, how are they processing this? I mean, at least it's got to feel like a relief of some kind.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Here's one woman I spoke with. Her name is Patricia Talib. She's 24. She had stopped on the shoulder of the highway to let one of her children pee on the side of the road.
--:-- Lauren Freyer: They're from a village in the south that saw fierce ground battles. And the Israeli military has warned people not to return to some of these areas because Israeli troops are still there.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: They're in retreat, but they are still in this country. And I asked Patricia if she's worried about finding Israeli soldiers, you know, in her house.
--:-- Lauren Freyer: To begin with, people are not really intimidated by the entity. We know that this is the end days of the war and we know that ultimately it going to be okay We personally we stayed for the first week of the war so we didn really want to leave our village to begin with It was only because we were in the way of the resistance that we actually ended up leaving our village
--:-- Rob Schmitz: You can hear her kids there in the background. When she says resistance, she means Hezbollah fighters.
--:-- Lauren Freyer: Now, I know it's new, but can you fill us in on the details of this agreement?
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Yeah, so this is a 60-day truce, which would take us up to Donald Trump's inauguration, incidentally, during which Israel withdraws its ground troops from Lebanon.
--:-- Lauren Freyer: It halts airstrikes and in turn Hezbollah moves its fighters and weapons north of the Latani River. That's about 20 miles away from the Israeli border.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: The Lebanese army is deploying down into southern Lebanon alongside UN peacekeepers who are already here.
--:-- Lauren Freyer: And an international committee will be monitoring implementation of this.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: As for whether this is holding, it apparently seems to be so far.
--:-- Lauren Freyer: There was one incident in which the Israeli military says it identified what it says were Hezbollah operatives returning to areas near the border. It opened fire on them. That doesn't appear to have kicked off anything wider.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Now, many of the targets of Israeli strikes in Lebanon were either in the nation's south or in and around Beirut.
--:-- Lauren Freyer: What's the scale of recovery?
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Yeah, I mean, parts of Lebanon, particularly in the south and Beirut's southern suburbs, look like Gaza. They've been completely destroyed.
--:-- Lauren Freyer: This is orders of magnitude compared to the last war here in 2006, and it will take years, perhaps even decades, to rebuild.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: I'm in Sidon, an ancient port city on the Mediterranean, and this is sort of the boundary of southern Lebanon.
--:-- Lauren Freyer: So the mood has been very jubilant here as people head south and celebrate this ceasefire, but I suspect the mood will really change going south from here.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Now, the ceasefire aims to put an end to Hezbollah militant attacks on Israel, which have displaced tens of thousands of people in the nation's north.
--:-- Lauren Freyer: What's the situation now for them?
--:-- Rob Schmitz: So Israel is still not calling on its residents to return to their abandoned homes in the north of that country.
--:-- Lauren Freyer: Officials there say there will be a one to two month period of rebuilding before they initiate that return.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: It's worth mentioning many mayors inside Israel, particularly along that border, opposed this ceasefire.
--:-- Lauren Freyer: One called it a shameful agreement. They have real security concerns. not only the fear of a resumption of Hezbollah rocket attacks, but also a possible October 7th-like attack.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: That's NPR's Lauren Freyer.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Security forces dispersed protesters in the capital of Pakistan overnight.
--:-- A. Martinez: Yeah, that's right. They marched to Islamabad to demand the release of the jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Hundreds of protesters have been arrested since Sunday.
--:-- A. Martinez: With me now is NPR's Dia Hadid. She covers Pakistan from her base in Mumbai.
--:-- Dia Hadid: Good morning, Rob.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Good morning, Dia. So bring us up to speed, Dia. What happened with these protests and where do things stand?
--:-- Dia Hadid: Right. Well, protesters had reached downtown Islamabad. They defied tear gas and climbed over shipping containers to get there.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: There was also violence. Six people were killed on Tuesday, including four security personnel.
--:-- Dia Hadid: Journalists covering the march said protesters also attacked them, including an Associated Press cameraman who was taken to hospital.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: And once protesters had made it to the city centre, they announced a sit-in until the former Prime Minister Imran Khan is released.
--:-- Dia Hadid: But overnight, paramilitary forces pushed them out.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Videos shared by Khan supporters showed smoke, flashing lights, people running, the sound of guns firing.
--:-- Dia Hadid: I spoke to a young woman who was there. She requested anonymity. She's worried about being detained if identified because there's been crackdowns on Khan supporters.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: All you could see was tear gas and it was just a lot of chaos.
--:-- Dia Hadid: I was between the crowd at that time. My dad and I saw a body fall in front of us when the firing started, it was all pitch dark, but I could hear bullets being shot at people.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Wow, that sounds terrifying.
--:-- Dia Hadid: Yeah. Khan's media team say dozens of people were injured and another two people were killed.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: And following that crackdown Khan team called off the protest for now And the governments interpreted that as a victory for them
--:-- Dia Hadid: The information minister even told local media that protesters ran like cowards He said they even left their shoes behind.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: So it sounds like the government is taking a very tough line in all of this.
--:-- Dia Hadid: What can we expect in the coming days?
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Well, the coming days may well reflect what we've seen in the past 18 months since Imran Khan was jailed, a cycle of increasingly violent encounters.
--:-- Dia Hadid: I spoke to Michael Kugelman. He's the director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre, and he says this violence reflects a crisis of legitimacy at the very top.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: You have a critical mass of the public that has essentially lost confidence in public institutions, and that includes the army.
--:-- Dia Hadid: It's important to note the army is Pakistan's most powerful institution. It was largely sacrosanct among Pakistanis, and that's changed now.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Many of Khan's supporters see the army as having rigged elections this February to propel this current government to power.
--:-- Dia Hadid: So for now, it's an intractable crisis, the army against Khan and his supporters.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: And now that they've deployed against civilians in the capital, which is quite unusual in Pakistan, it could happen again because nothing's actually been resolved.
--:-- Dia Hadid: But for now, the protests have been dispersed, right?
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Yeah, the government says life's returning to normal.
--:-- Dia Hadid: Cars are on the road where the crackdown happened. It's unclear what protesters will do next.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Two people I spoke to said they were angry at their protest leaders because they appear to have fled as the crackdown began.
--:-- Dia Hadid: That includes Khan's wife, Bushra Bibi. She only appears in a white gown and a face veil, presents herself as a spiritual guru.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Now the government's playing on that anger. One minister told local media that these events were the fault of one woman.
--:-- Dia Hadid: That's NPR's Dia Hadid.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: President-elect Donald Trump is threatening a 25 percent tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico, and an extra 10 percent tariff may be put on items from China.
--:-- A. Martinez: According to Trump, those nations are not doing enough to stop undocumented migrants or fentanyl from crossing into the U.S.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: While arrests of migrants have been on the rise at the northern border, they're a fraction of those at the southern border, where apprehensions are at a four-year low.
--:-- A. Martinez: NPR's Brian Mann covers a fentanyl crisis, joins us now to take a look at Trump's promise.
--:-- Brian Mann: Now, Brian, it's a social media post right now, not policy quite yet, but what does Donald Trump say he hopes to accomplish with this threat?
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Yeah, you're right, A. It's not clear Trump's going to follow through on this. He doesn't take office for a couple months. A lot of negotiations are going to happen before then.
--:-- Brian Mann: And what Trump said in social media post Monday is that these countries aren't doing enough to solve what he describes as two of the biggest problems hitting the U.S., illegal immigration and fentanyl, which is still killing tens of thousands of people every year.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: According to Trump, Canada, China and Mexico could collectively easily solve these problems.
--:-- Brian Mann: He added that once imposed, these tariffs would remain in place until drugs, including fentanyl and illegal aliens, those are his words, stop this invasion of our country.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: But could China and Mexico really just shut down fentanyl smuggling just like that?
--:-- Brian Mann: Yeah, experts I talk to say no, it's just not possible.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Jonathan Calkins, a drug policy expert at Carnegie Mellon University, says fentanyl is just really easy to make and smuggle.
--:-- Brian Mann: Unfortunately, it's quite difficult to control fentanyl because it's so easy for the illegal supply chains to produce and distribute it.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Vonda Felbab-Brown is a drug policy expert at the Brookings Institution, and she agrees what Trump is demanding here, it just isn't going to happen.
--:-- Brian Mann: That is an unachievable goal. No country will accomplish that.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: What experts say is the best case scenario is that Trump's threats here prompt negotiations that maybe lead to better cooperation on migrants and fentanyl with more realistic goals.
--:-- Brian Mann: OK, I'm sure they're all going to be talking at some point.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: So how are these countries responding so far?
--:-- Brian Mann: Well, you know, first it's important to say most fentanyl does enter the U from Mexico typically passing through official border crossings.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Mexico President Claudio Schoenbaum responded by saying yesterday fentanyl is primarily a U problem one that requires a health care and treatment response she says to reduce addiction
--:-- Brian Mann: That been Mexico position for years.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: She also suggested U.S. tariffs linked to fentanyl could trigger a full-blown trade war.
--:-- Brian Mann: One other concern I'm hearing from drug policy experts is that a trade fight could unravel what has been growing international cooperation targeting drug traffickers.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Again, here's Van de Philbram Brown at Brookings.
--:-- Brian Mann: But yes, Chinese officials have told me that the Compton Narcotics Cooperation would not be able to survive an imposition of substantial tariffs.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: So if this power move by Trump doesn't work, we could see China and Mexico backing away from intelligence sharing and other cooperation with U.S. law enforcement.
--:-- Brian Mann: That could mean less pressure on these gangs that are smuggling fentanyl.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Now, Brian, you've been reporting that the fentanyl crisis has been easing in recent months with a lot fewer people dying.
--:-- Brian Mann: So what does Donald Trump say about that?
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Well, Trump hasn't actually acknowledged that progress.
--:-- Brian Mann: Writing on social media, he said, we're still seeing drugs coming across the border, and I'm quoting here, at levels never seen before.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: In fact, there's been a huge positive shift over the last 12 months. Fatal overdoses, including fentanyl, are dropping fast, about 16,000 fewer deaths.
--:-- Brian Mann: Most experts I talk to credit better health care and treatment, and they worry that Trump's threat here of an international drug and trade war could be a distraction, pulling focus away from a public health response that appears to be helping.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: So let's broaden the scope, then. If these countries cannot meet Donald Trump's big demands on fentanyl and migrants, I mean, how could a tariff war then play out for workers and consumers here in the U.S.?
--:-- Brian Mann: Well, most economists agree tariffs basically work as a tax on goods.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: This kind of trade fight could boost prices for American consumers at a time when inflation is still a problem.
--:-- Brian Mann: More broadly, we're talking about what could be a messy trade conflict erupting simultaneously between the U.S. and three countries that are all deeply intertwined with American companies and their supply chains.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: So if Trump does pull the trigger on these tariffs, the disruption could be enormous.
--:-- Brian Mann: That's NPR's addiction correspondent, Brian Mann.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Thanks to our guests today, Lauren Freyer and Dia Hadid, and Brian Mann.
--:-- A. Martinez: And thanks to our producers, Ziad Buchh, Nia Dumas, and Lilly Quiroz.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: We get engineering support from Carleigh Strange.
--:-- A. Martinez: And our technical director is Nisha Heinis.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Join us again tomorrow.
--:-- A. Martinez: This message comes from Odoo.
--:-- [Theme music starts]
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Some say Odoo business management software is like fertilizer for businesses because it promotes growth.
--:-- A. Martinez: Others say Odoo is like a magic beanstalk because it scales with you and is magically affordable.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: And some describe Odoo's programs as building blocks for creating a custom software suite.
--:-- A. Martinez: But some say Odoo is fertilizer magic beanstalk building blocks for business.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Odoo. Exactly what a business needs.
--:-- A. Martinez: Sign up at Odoo.com.
--:-- [Theme music continues]
--:-- Rob Schmitz: That's O-D-O-O dot com.
--:-- A. Martinez: Support for NPR and the following message come from Pete and Jerry's Eggs.
--:-- [Theme music fades out]
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Their new organic pasture-raised eggs are the next level of commitment to healthy hens, healthy eggs, and a healthy planet.
--:-- A. Martinez: These hens roam outside in nature with over 108 square feet of pasture each and enjoy a USDA-certified organic diet with no GMOs, added hormones, or synthetic pesticides.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Delicious, ethical, healthy eggs, as nature intended.
--:-- A. Martinez: Learn more at PeteAndJerrys.com.
--:-- [Theme music starts]
--:-- Rob Schmitz: This message comes from Capital One.
--:-- A. Martinez: Banking with Capital One helps you keep more money in your wallet with no fees or minimums on checking accounts.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: What's in your wallet?
--:-- A. Martinez: Terms apply. See CapitalOne.com slash bank for details.
--:-- Rob Schmitz: Capital One N.A. Member FDIC.
--:-- [Theme music fades out]
