--:-- [Up First theme music plays]
--:-- Steve Inskeep: Israel is making plans to occupy Gaza. You cannot destroy Hamas without controlling the entire Gaza Strip. But what would it take to hold the territory, and what does it mean for the Palestinians living there?
--:-- Michelle Martin: I'm Steve Inskeep with Michelle Martin, and this is Up First from NPR News.
--:-- [Up First theme music fades out]
--:-- Steve Inskeep: Negotiators from the United States and Ukraine met in Saudi Arabia over the weekend to iron out a ceasefire deal with Russia. But as bombs keep falling on Kiev, is a real truce even possible?
--:-- Michelle Martin: And China is trying to rebalance its economy. Steve is in Beijing for China's annual conference for global business to find out how China is planning to deal with the U.S. trade war.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: Falling back to the law of the jungle will be a regression in history and a tragedy for humanity. Stay with us. We'll give you the news you need to start your day.
--:-- [Up First theme music plays briefly]
--:-- Steve Inskeep: This message comes from NPR sponsor Adobe. Introducing the all-new Adobe Acrobat Studio, now with AI-powered PDF spaces.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Need to turn 100 pages of market research into 5 insights with a click? Templates for a sales proposal that'll close that deal? Or an AI specialist to tailor the tone of your market report? You can do all that with the all-new Adobe Acrobat Studio.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: Learn more at adobe.com slash do that with Acrobat.
--:-- Michelle Martin: We have new details about military plans Israel has drawn up for Gaza. Israel is considering a ground invasion to fully occupy the territory within a few months and establish Israeli military rule over Palestinians there.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: I've spoken to two people who reviewed the classified plans and they spoke to me on condition of anonymity to discuss them.
--:-- Michelle Martin: The plans would have Israeli forces occupy Gaza entering at multiple points, pushing Palestinians into a small zone designated for civilians, and that Israel is examining options for the military to control the distribution of food, which would be limited to a minimum caloric amount.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: Now, both people who reviewed these plans said it's unclear if they would really be carried out or if they're just a negotiation tactic to pressure Hamas to release more hostages.
--:-- Michelle Martin: In fact, it might be both getting some hostages free from Hamas captivity initially, but then gradually moving toward full military rule over Palestinians in Gaza, which would go far beyond what Israel has stated as its war goals.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: The military told me it would not comment on future operational plans.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Do these plans for Israel ruling Gaza have the support of the Trump administration? We don't know. Trump administration officials did not return my requests for comment.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: We do know that Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu discussed Israel military operations in Gaza yesterday.
--:-- Michelle Martin: We also know that President Trump Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff has acknowledged that Bibi Netanyahu's return to war is not what many Israelis want.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: He talked about that in a podcast interview with commentator Tucker Carlson, published Friday.
--:-- Michelle Martin: I think Bibi feels that he's doing the right thing. I think he goes up against public opinion because public opinion there wants those hostages.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: And indeed, there have been daily protests in the streets here saying the return to war only benefits Netanyahu's right-wing coalition and endangers hostages in Gaza.
--:-- Michelle Martin: To that end, what are you hearing from Israelis about these plans for Gaza?
--:-- Daniel Estrin: Some are seeing this as something that should have been done already and that can actually lead to the defeat of Hamas.
--:-- Michelle Martin: We spoke with Amir Avivi, who's a former deputy commander of the military's Gaza division.
--:-- Amir Avivi: You cannot destroy Hamas without controlling the entire Gaza Strip. Eventually, you'll have to control everything.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Bringing a collapse of Hamas as a governmental and military entity, this can be achieved in a few months.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: So he's saying a few months, but other Israeli defense officials and analysts who I spoke with are more skeptical about that.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Also, Dan Shapiro, a top Pentagon official on Mideast policy under the Biden administration, spoke with us.
--:-- Dan Shapiro: They're saying, OK, well, once Israel occupies Gaza, then what? this could mire Israeli soldiers in Gaza for decades.
--:-- Michelle Martin: And we're hearing from reservist soldiers already. They're exhausted after more than a year of war and very skeptical that this could actually change the picture fundamentally.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: That is.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Delegations from the United States and Ukraine have begun talks in Saudi Arabia to try to achieve a ceasefire in Russia's war with Ukraine.
--:-- Eleanor Beardsley: I've been talking to people in Kyiv, people who are just trying to live their lives.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Do the people that you've heard from think that these talks could produce a real ceasefire?
--:-- Eleanor Beardsley: Not really, because no one believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin really wants to stop the war.
--:-- Michelle Martin: And frankly, the proof of that is all around them.
--:-- Eleanor Beardsley: On Saturday night, Russia launched one of its biggest drone attacks yet against Ukraine's capital, Kiev.
--:-- Michelle Martin: And I was cowering in the bathroom as this battle went on for over an hour in the skies.
--:-- Eleanor Beardsley: And I stuck my phone out the window. Here's what it sounded like, Michelle.
--:-- [Audio clip of air defenses shooting down drones]
--:-- Michelle Martin: You know, that's the air defenses shooting down the Iranian Shahhead drones.
--:-- Eleanor Beardsley: But they were overwhelmed and some got through.
--:-- Michelle Martin: There were fires all night. Three people were killed, says the mayor of Kiev, and dozens wounded.
--:-- Eleanor Beardsley: I went yesterday to an apartment block near the river that was hit by a drone and where an older woman had burned to death in her top floor apartment.
--:-- Michelle Martin: And people were gathered out front. Everybody was looking up.
--:-- Eleanor Beardsley: The apartment was blackened. The roof and ceiling were gone. Windows were blown out all around. And there was a lot of damage to the building.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Wow, that sounds terrible.
--:-- Eleanor Beardsley: What do Ukrainians say? What do they tell you about these ongoing attacks even as the ceasefire talks are taking place?
--:-- Michelle Martin: Yeah, well they say these attacks just sort of make the talks a farce.
--:-- Eleanor Beardsley: I spoke with a 19-year-old law student, Tatyana, who was at the building.
--:-- Tatyana: She didn't want to give her last name, but she pulled up a video on social media of the woman on the top floor's death, and she asked me to share it with Americans.
--:-- Michelle Martin: And this is a part of the video of the screaming.
--:-- Eleanor Beardsley: So like, if you can show it in your country and to tell what is happening, just see, just see what is going on.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Just see how we live in this reality.
--:-- Eleanor Beardsley: You know, she says she wants to show Americans who say they're sick of the war, that we're sick of it too.
--:-- Michelle Martin: And they're exhausted by the continued and constant attacks from a country that invaded them three years ago.
--:-- Eleanor Beardsley: And remind us, what is Ukraine pushing for in these talks?
--:-- Michelle Martin: Well, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wants to broaden the ceasefire to include other infrastructure.
--:-- Eleanor Beardsley: He spoke last night. Here he is.
--:-- [Audio clip of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaking]
--:-- Michelle Martin: And he basically says, you know, everybody, the U.S., Europe, the world, needs to put more pressure on Russia to stop this terror.
--:-- Eleanor Beardsley: And Zelensky said after the last meetings in Saudi Arabia, where Russian President Vladimir Putin would only agree to stop targeting energy infrastructure, that it should be clear to everyone that Russia is the only one who's dragging out this war.
--:-- Michelle Martin: And what is Russia expected to ask for in these talks?
--:-- Eleanor Beardsley: Russia will demand that Ukraine cede swaths of territory that the Russian army doesn't even fully control because Putin says these four regions are now part of Russia since he held illegal referendums there two years ago and annexed them.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Russia wants the West to end all military aid. Europe says no way on that.
--:-- Eleanor Beardsley: Russia wants Ukraine to majorly scale back its military. These are maximalist demands, one analyst told me, and they're not acceptable conditions for Ukraine.
--:-- Michelle Martin: But to even be able to sit down and talk face-to-face about it, Ukraine says the nightly attacks on its cities must end.
--:-- Eleanor Beardsley: That is NPR's Eleanor Beardsley in Kiev.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Eleanor, thank you.
--:-- Eleanor Beardsley: You're welcome, Michelle.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: In recent weeks, we have followed the news of President Trump's tariffs on China.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Today, we hear some of China's response because Steve is in Beijing.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: This is where China's second highest government official spoke this week.
--:-- Li Chang: Li Chang addressed a big business forum here.
--:-- Michelle Martin: There were a lot of international CEOs in the room, including Americans like Tim Cook of Apple.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: And they heard him suggest that China, not the U.S., is the stable country now, the country that plays by the rules, he said.
--:-- Li Chang: Falling back to the law of the jungle will be a regression in history and a tragedy for humanity.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Now, the Chinese premier did not mention Donald Trump or tariffs, but did speak of rising instability in the world and called for open markets.
--:-- Anthony Kuhn: I'm Anthony Kuhn, a longtime China watcher.
--:-- Michelle Martin: And Anthony, it's great to be face to face with you since we normally talk over thousands of miles on the line.
--:-- Anthony Kuhn: Exactly. Welcome back. Thank you very much.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Glad to be here.
--:-- Anthony Kuhn: What is China doing with remarks like that about the situation in the world?
--:-- Michelle Martin: Well, you heard Li speech in which he mentioned that China is preparing for external shocks which is sure to include the possibility of a trade war.
--:-- Anthony Kuhn: And we heard that for some time, China has, for example, been filling up strategic reserves to cope with an emergency, filling up reserves of money, food, fuel, and minerals.
--:-- Michelle Martin: And at that forum, we heard Premier Li Chang basically telling other countries what they want to hear, which is that, you know, China is a staunch supporter of multilateralism.
--:-- Anthony Kuhn: They're a status quo power, not revisionists. And they're going to try to provide stability in an unstable world.
--:-- Michelle Martin: And that means keeping its markets open and staying open for business.
--:-- Anthony Kuhn: Of course, when we talk with Americans who do business in China, we hear some skepticism about the idea that China is truly that open.
--:-- Michelle Martin: They have their own issues with the Chinese market.
--:-- Anthony Kuhn: But you mentioned preparations for a trade war. Is China doing other things to strengthen their economy itself?
--:-- Michelle Martin: Absolutely. They're trying to shift the whole model away from investment and manufacturing towards consumption.
--:-- Anthony Kuhn: And that's, of course, a big concern of President Trump, too. He wants to cut the trade surpluses.
--:-- Michelle Martin: But China is doing this for its own reason. It's not going to be done overnight.
--:-- Anthony Kuhn: They're also trying to get foreign investment up, which is what this forum was about.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Now, you've done some reporting on trying to get private businesses a little more space in China.
--:-- Anthony Kuhn: The government made an effort, I know, in recent weeks to pass a law that would assure the rights or at least the privileges of private businesses here.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Is that opening for real? Is that effort for real?
--:-- Anthony Kuhn: Yes. I mean, they're trying. And there are things Premier Lee did not address, like the balance between economic priorities and national security, which is a concern for businesses, and also the rule of law, stronger protections for private entrepreneurs.
--:-- Michelle Martin: There are no signs of major moves to strengthen the rule of law.
--:-- Anthony Kuhn: You know, you've lived here, I want people to know, for decades, ever since the early 1980s, which was the beginning of China's opening to the world.
--:-- Michelle Martin: You've moved away but still been pretty nearby in Seoul, and now you're back for an extended visit.
--:-- Anthony Kuhn: What sticks with you?
--:-- Michelle Martin: Well, I left just before the pandemic, and coming back now, I think the most obvious thing is the decline in people's confidence about the future.
--:-- Anthony Kuhn: But I am seeing small signs of easing.
--:-- Michelle Martin: For example, we were at the annual session of Parliament, and lawmakers were a bit more talkative with foreign journalists.
--:-- Anthony Kuhn: And more journalists, including myself, have been able to get in to get short-term visas to report.
--:-- Michelle Martin: So these are small but welcome signs of easing.
--:-- Anthony Kuhn: Okay.
--:-- Michelle Martin: Anthony, it's a pleasure talking with you.
--:-- Anthony Kuhn: Thank you so much.
--:-- Michelle Martin: We'll continue listening for your reporting through the week.
--:-- Anthony Kuhn: Thank you, Steve.
--:-- Michelle Martin: And that's up first for Monday, March 24th.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: I'm Michelle Martin.
--:-- Michelle Martin: And I'm Steve Inskeep.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: The NPR app lets you keep public radio in your pocket.
--:-- Michelle Martin: You'll find a mix of local, national, and international news, plus the best podcasts from the NPR network just by downloading the NPR app, which is in your app store, also in your pocket.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: Today's episode of Up First was edited by Alex Leff, Ryland Barton, Reena Advani, Janaya Williams, and Mohamad ElBardicy.
--:-- Michelle Martin: It was produced by Ziad Buchh, Nia Dumas, and Christopher Thomas.
--:-- Steve Inskeep: We get engineering support from Arthur Laurent, and our technical director is Carleigh Strange.
--:-- Michelle Martin: We hope you'll join us again tomorrow.
