--:-- [Theme music fades out]
--:-- A. Martinez: With less than three weeks to go in the election, the race is narrowing in the swing states, with former President Donald Trump polling slightly ahead.
--:-- Leila Fadel: What to keep an eye on in the final weeks of the campaign.
--:-- A. Martinez: I'm A. Martinez, that's Leila Fadel, and this is Up First from NPR News.
--:-- Leila Fadel: The U.S. sends a letter warning Israel to increase aid to Palestinians in northern Gaza or possibly risk access to weapons funding.
--:-- A. Martinez: The letter was not meant as a threat. More on what the U.S. is calling for.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And Ukraine says North Korea is sending military personnel to Russia on top of the munitions it already sends.
--:-- A. Martinez: But it's too early to say whether they will be deployed directly on the territory of Ukraine. What's involved in the increasing ties between the two countries? Stay with us.
--:-- Leila Fadel: We'll give you the news you need to start your day.
--:-- A. Martinez: This message comes from BetterHelp.
--:-- President Fernando Madeira: For me, sometimes I just need to go and talk to somebody that is not going to judge me, right? It's going to be there and they're going to listen to me.
--:-- A. Martinez: And I can start just saying, look, I'm not feeling right today. And it feels natural. I love it.
--:-- Leila Fadel: To get matched with a therapist, visit BetterHelp.com slash NPR for 10% off your first month.
--:-- A. Martinez: This message comes from NPR sponsor Adobe.
--:-- Adobe Representative: Introducing the all-new Adobe Acrobat Studio, now with AI-powered PDF spaces.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Need to turn 100 pages of market research into five insights with a click? Templates for a sales proposal that'll close that deal?
--:-- A. Martinez: Or an AI specialist to tailor the tone of your market report? You can do all that with the all-new Adobe Acrobat Studio.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Learn more at adobe.com slash do that with Acrobat.
--:-- A. Martinez: World news is important, but it can feel far away. Not on the State of the World podcast.
--:-- Leila Fadel: With journalists around the world, you'll hear firsthand the effects of U.S. trade actions in Canada and China.
--:-- A. Martinez: And meet a Mexican street sweeper who became a pop star.
--:-- Leila Fadel: We don't go around the world. We're already there. Listen to the State of the World podcast from NPR every weekday.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: There are now less than three weeks to go in this election, and the presidential race is as tight as ever.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Yeah, sure is. When Vice President Kamala Harris entered the race over the summer, it caused a seismic shift.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: And while it might appear not much has changed since, the race is shifting at the margins.
--:-- Leila Fadel: For more on where the race stands, we're joined by NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: Hi, Leila. Hey, good morning. Good morning.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So you have a new analysis out this morning on NPR.org looking at the electoral college map and how Harris and former President Donald Trump are doing across the country.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: What did you find in this year's competitive swing states?
--:-- Leila Fadel: Well, it's pretty notable. I mean, when I ran the numbers looking to update where things stand, I found that as of yesterday, for the first time since Harris got into the race, former President Donald Trump is now leading in an average of the seven most closely watched states.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: That's, of course, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, those three blue wall states, and the Sunbelt states of North Carolina and Georgia, as well as Arizona and Nevada.
--:-- Leila Fadel: It is very close, though, all well, well within the margin of error.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: OK, so when you say close, how close are we talking?
--:-- Leila Fadel: I mean, Trump is up in the seven state average by just, get this, 0.34 percentage points.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: It doesn't really get any closer than that.
--:-- Leila Fadel: But the movement given that just a couple of weeks ago Harris had what appeared to be a small but consistent lead in these blue wall states two to three points or so you know that really those three states would help her across the finish line to win the presidency.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: The fact that she slipped in those and she slipped in the Sun Belt it has a lot of Democrats concerned.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So what are you hearing from Democrats and the Harris campaign?
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: Well, officials with the Harris campaign have said that they have always expected a tight race, that their internal polling shows that it's a tight race, that it's always been that.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So that's what they're saying. You know, that's why Harris has called herself the underdog, for example.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: You know, they're not taking anything for granted, they say.
--:-- Leila Fadel: But Democratic pollsters don't like what they're seeing because polls in 2016 and 2020 overstated Democratic support.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: So does that mean Trump's going to win? Maybe. But polls in 2022, remember, understated Democrat support, though Trump wasn't on the ballot then.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Well, maybe the pollsters have just adjusted and this time it truly is a coin flip race and they have it exactly right.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: That's possible. We just don't know.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So what should we be watching in these last weeks with this race so close?
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: Yeah, well, Harris, by all accounts, I'll say, has run a pretty good race.
--:-- Leila Fadel: I mean, she's tacked to the middle on the issues.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: She's had a good convention, very strong debate against Trump.
--:-- Leila Fadel: But the Trump campaign has run a really intensely negative ad campaign looking to define Harris.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: And it looks like it's at least stopped her momentum because she's plateaued in the polls.
--:-- Leila Fadel: We've also been seeing some notable demographic shifts I think we should pay attention to underneath all of these very close top lines.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: You know, Trump appears to be cutting into margins with black and Latino men, adding to his strength with whites without college degrees.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And he's blowing out the margins with men.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: I mean, we may see the widest gender gap in history in any presidential election in this election.
--:-- Leila Fadel: On the other hand, Harris is poised to potentially win seniors.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: She'd be the first Democrat to do that since 2000.
--:-- Leila Fadel: She's also on track to win the largest share of women of any Democrat before her.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: And she could win record margins for a Democrat with whites who have college degrees.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So we'll have a lot to talk about after Election Day to see what happened.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: Right now, by all accounts, very close race.
--:-- Leila Fadel: What's most important is that the campaigns are trying to mobilize their voters, especially as early voting is ramping up for millions of people across the country.
--:-- Leila Fadel: NPR's Domenico Montanaro.
--:-- Domenico Montanaro: Thank you, Leila.
--:-- Leila Fadel: You're welcome.
--:-- Greg Myrie: United Nations aid agencies say over the last two weeks, Israel has blocked almost all food aid from getting into northern Gaza, leaving the some 400,000 Palestinians a choice, starve or flee.
--:-- Leila Fadel: President Biden has in the past expressed frustration with Israel over the lack of humanitarian aid reaching Palestinian civilians.
--:-- Greg Myrie: Now, his administration has sent a detailed letter to Israel telling the government it has 30 days to increase the food and other assistance going into the territory.
--:-- Leila Fadel: For more, we're joined by NPR's Greg Myrie.
--:-- Greg Myrie: Hi, Leila. Hi, Greg.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So what exactly is in this letter?
--:-- Greg Myrie: Well, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin both signed the letter.
--:-- Leila Fadel: It includes more than a dozen bullet points with very specific demands on Israel.
--:-- Greg Myrie: For example, it says Israel must allow a minimum of 350 aid trucks to enter Gaza daily and that Israel needs to approve 400 Palestinian drivers who can go back and forth to the border to prevent delays.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Now, several U.S. officials addressed this letter yesterday, including John Kirby of the National Security Council.
--:-- Greg Myrie: The letter was not meant as a threat.
--:-- Leila Fadel: The letter was simply meant to reiterate the sense of urgency we feel about the need for an increase, a dramatic increase in humanitarian assistance.
--:-- Greg Myrie: Okay before we get into the sort of stipulations around this deadline you know a lot of what going on in Gaza has been overshadowed by the battles between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So if you could just bring us up to speed on what happening in Gaza and really the dire situation in the north.
--:-- Greg Myrie: Yeah sure Israel has carried out a large military operation against Hamas in northern Gaza.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Much of it focused on a longtime Hamas stronghold, the Jabalia refugee camp on the edge of Gaza City.
--:-- Greg Myrie: Now, at the same time, aid groups say Israel has effectively cut off food assistance.
--:-- Leila Fadel: The UN says no food deliveries have reached northern Gaza for the past 12 days and conditions are getting increasingly desperate for the hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilians there.
--:-- Greg Myrie: And the U.S. says that the amount of aid that went into Gaza last month was lower than in any other month since the war began a year ago.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So does this mean the U.S. will cut weapons shipments to Israel if there's not a dramatic increase in aid over the next month?
--:-- Greg Myrie: Well, Leila, the letter does not say explicitly what would happen, though it does cite a law barring U.S. military aid to countries that block U.S. humanitarian aid.
--:-- Leila Fadel: John Kirby says the intent is not to punish Israel.
--:-- Greg Myrie: The goal is to see much more aid flowing into Gaza on a regular basis.
--:-- Leila Fadel: The U.S. says it sent a similar letter in April, and Israel responded by letting more aid into the territory.
--:-- Greg Myrie: Now, U.S. officials say this letter was prompted by this drop in aid to Gaza, but we can't ignore the political calendar.
--:-- Leila Fadel: The Biden administration has been reluctant to act against Israel in the run-up to the presidential election.
--:-- Greg Myrie: This letter gives Israel 30 days to act, and that would take us to mid-November after the election when President Biden may feel he has more room to act.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Now, you have this sort of warning from the U.S. that might risk some military aid to Israel, but we should note the U.S. is also sending additional military support to Israel.
--:-- Greg Myrie: What can you tell us about that?
--:-- Leila Fadel: Yeah, according to the Pentagon, the U.S. is setting up a very advanced air defense system known as THAAD.
--:-- Greg Myrie: This would help Israel defend against any new ballistic missile strikes by Iran.
--:-- Leila Fadel: We know it takes about 100 U.S. troops to operate one of these THAAD batteries.
--:-- Greg Myrie: Israel keeps saying it will respond to the Iranian missile attack from October 1st.
--:-- Leila Fadel: However, it increasingly looks like this will be a limited response.
--:-- Greg Myrie: We're hearing from officials that Israel may target military sites, but not oil our nuclear facilities.
--:-- Leila Fadel: That's NPR's Greg Myrie.
--:-- Greg Myrie: Thank you, Leila.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Sure thing, Greg.
--:-- Joanna Kukis: Ukraine says its military intelligence has evidence that North Korea isn't just sending weapons to Russia to assist in the war on Ukraine.
--:-- Leila Fadel: That's right. North Korea may also be sending soldiers.
--:-- Joanna Kukis: Now, the Kremlin is denying the claim, even as Russia received large shipments of ammunition from North Korea, some of which has been produced just this year.
--:-- Leila Fadel: With me now is NPR's Joanna Kukis in Kyiv.
--:-- Joanna Kukis: Thanks for being here.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Thanks for having me.
--:-- Joanna Kukis: So let's start with Ukraine's claim that North Korea is sending soldiers to Russia.
--:-- Leila Fadel: How credible is this claim?
--:-- Joanna Kukis: Well, the Ukrainians say it's credible.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Ukraine's President Vladimir Zelensky told Ukrainians all about it in a video address earlier this week.
--:-- Joanna Kukis: And we spoke to Andrei Kovalenko from Ukraine's National Security Defense Council.
--:-- Leila Fadel: He was briefed about the developments by military intelligence.
--:-- Joanna Kukis: He told us Russia, whom he calls the enemy, is trading North Korean military personnel on Russian territory, but are keeping them inside Russia for now.
--:-- Leila Fadel: As of now, the enemy's plans are to reinforce conscripts and border guards in the border regions of Russia.
--:-- Joanna Kukis: But it's too early to say whether they will be deployed directly on the territory of Ukraine.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Now, the Kremlin denies this is all happening and calls it, quote, an information hope.
--:-- Joanna Kukis: Okay, so Russia saying this isn't true, but Russia and North Korea do have a military alliance basically right?
--:-- Leila Fadel: So what does that involve?
--:-- Joanna Kukis: So Leila that means that the two countries can coordinate to quote eliminate an immediate threat of armed aggression.
--:-- Leila Fadel: South Korea says North Korea has been sending thousands of shipments of munitions to Russia in violation of sanctions.
--:-- Joanna Kukis: There's also evidence that North Korea is making missiles to order for Russia, and those missiles are being used to attack Ukraine.
--:-- Leila Fadel: We spoke about this with Damien Sleeters of Conflict Armament Research, which is a UK-based organization that tracks the supply of weapons and ammunition in armed conflicts.
--:-- Joanna Kukis: And Sleeters says his group discovered the remnants of four North Korean manufactured ballistic missiles known as the Hwasong-11 in Ukraine.
--:-- Leila Fadel: First of all, he says this seems to confirm an ongoing weapons transfer.
--:-- Joanna Kukis: The second thing that this finding illustrates is that there's a very tight window between production, transfer, and use.
--:-- Leila Fadel: He says the missile component found was likely made around March of this year and that the Russians used the missile in August.
--:-- Joanna Kukis: Okay, so what's the connection between these missiles and the North Korean military personnel that Ukraine says are in Russia?
--:-- Leila Fadel: So Kovalenko from Ukraine's National Defense and Security Council says North Korea is likely sending military engineers to monitor these missiles.
--:-- Joanna Kukis: There's evidence that some of these engineers may have been killed in a Ukrainian strike in occupied eastern Ukraine.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Sleater says these engineers could be assessing how these missiles are launching.
--:-- Joanna Kukis: It would make sense for people involved in the production of those missiles to be close to where they are being used and assess how effective they are in order to make improvements to those missiles.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Now, Ukrainian officials fear that troops could follow these military engineers who are likely officers.
--:-- Joanna Kukis: And if that happens, they say it could lead to a Russian breakthrough on the front line.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So does this change anything for the West's calculation? Does it now force the West to get more involved in defending Ukraine?
--:-- Joanna Kukis: Well, Zelensky sure hopes so, and so do many Ukrainians who question the West's commitment to Ukraine as Russia continues its war machine despite sanctions.
--:-- Leila Fadel: President Zelensky keeps telling the West, we will lose this war unless there's a change in strategy.
--:-- Joanna Kukis: And he, as well as several military analysts, say Western partners give Ukraine just enough support to survive, but not to win.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And because this is a war of attrition, Russia has the advantage.
--:-- Joanna Kukis: It has a bigger military arsenal, and it has like four times the population of Ukraine.
--:-- Leila Fadel: It also has North Korean weapons and maybe even North Korean soldiers at its disposal in the future.
--:-- Joanna Kukis: NPR's Joanna Kukis.
--:-- Joanna Kukis: Thank you, Leila.
--:-- Leila Fadel: You're welcome.
--:-- A. Martinez: And that's up first for Wednesday, October 16th.
--:-- Leila Fadel: I'm Leila Fadel.
--:-- A. Martinez: And I'm A. Martinez.
--:-- Leila Fadel: How about listening to Consider This from NPR?
--:-- A. Martinez: Legendary journalist Bob Woodward has been chronicling the behind-the-scenes happenings of presidential administrations for nearly five decades.
--:-- Leila Fadel: His latest book details the work of the Biden administration's national security team as it navigates two wars in two different parts of the world.
--:-- A. Martinez: Listen to Consider This from NPR.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And today's episode of Up First was edited by Dana Farrington, Andrew Sussman, Ryland Barton, Lisa Thomson, and Alice Woelfe.
--:-- A. Martinez: It was produced by Paige Waterhouse, Nia Dumas, and Kaity Klein.
--:-- Leila Fadel: We get engineering support from Stacey Abbott.
--:-- A. Martinez: And our technical director is Zac Coleman.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Join us again tomorrow.
--:-- [Theme music starts playing]
--:-- A. Martinez: This message comes from Ritual.
--:-- Leila Fadel: What makes Ritual vitamins different?
--:-- A. Martinez: Ritual vitamins are made with bioavailable clinically studied key ingredients as well as the essence of mint.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Get 25% off your first purchase when you visit ritual.com slash NPR.
--:-- [Theme music continues playing]
