--:-- [Up First theme music fades out]
--:-- Leila Fadel: Senate Republicans got the president's budget bill over the finish line, now goes back to the House, but polls show the bill is unpopular with a lot of Americans. So is it a political risk for Republicans?
--:-- A Martinez: I'm Leila Fadel, that's A Martinez, and this is Up First from NPR News.
--:-- Leila Fadel: One of the most controversial parts of the bill would make big cuts to Medicaid and leave millions of Americans uninsured.
--:-- A Martinez: So we get into what the bill would do and why so many people would lose their coverage.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And hundreds of jobs are being cut at the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, mainly people who conduct inspections of gun dealers.
--:-- A Martinez: So the people who shouldn't have guns don't have guns.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Stay with us. We've got all the news you need to start your day.
--:-- Leila Fadel: This message comes from BetterHelp. President Fernando Madeira describes how BetterHelp Online Therapy has helped him.
--:-- President Fernando Madeira: For me, sometimes I just need to go and talk to somebody that is not going to judge me, right? Is going to be there and going to listen to me. And I can start just saying, look, I'm not feeling right today. And it feels natural. I love it.
--:-- Leila Fadel: To get matched with a therapist, visit BetterHelp.com slash NPR for 10% off your first month.
--:-- Leila Fadel: This message comes from Lisa. Lisa mattresses are meticulously designed and assembled in the USA for exceptional quality.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And each mattress is designed with specific sleep positions and feel preferences in mind. Plus, they back it all up with free shipping, easy returns, and a 100-night sleep trial.
--:-- A Martinez: Visit Lisa.com for 25% off mattresses, plus get an extra $50 off with promo code NPR. That's L-E-E-S-A.com, promo code NPR.
--:-- Leila Fadel: This message comes from NPR sponsor Adobe. Introducing the all-new Adobe Acrobat Studio, now with AI-powered PDF spaces.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Need to turn 100 pages of market research into 5 insights with a click? Templates for a sales proposal that'll close that deal? Or an AI specialist to tailor the tone of your market report?
--:-- A Martinez: You can do all that with the all-new Adobe Acrobat Studio. Learn more at adobe.com slash do that with Acrobat.
--:-- Leila Fadel: The Senate approved President Trump's mega bill yesterday.
--:-- A Martinez: It includes tax cuts and boosts border security and defense programs.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Here's Senate Majority Leader John Thune after the vote.
--:-- Senate Majority Leader John Thune: With this legislation, we're fulfilling the mandate we were entrusted with last November and setting our country and the American people up to be safer, stronger, and more prosperous.
--:-- Leila Fadel: But it's expected to add $3.3 trillion to the U.S. budget deficit through 2034.
--:-- A Martinez: The House is planning to vote today as Republicans try to get the package to the president's desk by July 4th.
--:-- Leila Fadel: NPR congressional correspondent Deirdre Walsh is here now.
--:-- Deirdre Walsh: So, Deirdre, how did the Senate GOP leaders finally get this thing over the finish line?
--:-- Deirdre Walsh: You know, it really came down to the wire. Vice President J.D. Vance had to break a tie to pass it. GOP leaders could only lose three votes, and they did. Susan Collins of Maine, Rand Paul of Kentucky, and Tom Tillis of North Carolina all voted no.
--:-- A Martinez: Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski was the deciding vote.
--:-- Deirdre Walsh: She supported the tax cuts in this bill. It makes the 2017 Trump tax cuts permanent, adds new temporary breaks like no tax on tips or overtime.
--:-- Leila Fadel: But Murkowski raised big concerns about some of the spending cuts, especially the cuts to nutrition programs, and the nearly trillion in cuts to Medicaid.
--:-- Deirdre Walsh: That the health care program for low elderly and disabled This bill adds work requirements and changes tax provisions for states that going to impact how much states get from the federal government.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So what did leaders do to convince Senator Murkowski to vote yes?
--:-- Deirdre Walsh: They doubled a fund to help rural hospitals from $25 to $50 billion over five years. They made changes for nutrition benefits targeted just to help Alaska.
--:-- A Martinez: Plus, Murkowski got a tax break for whalers.
--:-- Deirdre Walsh: She called the decision agonizing. She said she didn't like the bill, but said she did what she thought helped Alaskans.
--:-- Leila Fadel: I needed help, and I worked to get that every single day. And did I get everything that I wanted? Absolutely not.
--:-- A Martinez: So the House now, Deirdre. Will this pass the House? I mean, they're aiming for, what, later today?
--:-- Deirdre Walsh: Right. House Speaker Mike Johnson can't afford to lose more than three votes.
--:-- Leila Fadel: He admitted last night weather is a factor. Flights have been delayed and canceled last night as members come back into D.C. for a vote expected today.
--:-- A Martinez: Conservatives are threatening to vote no because the bill, as you said, adds more to the deficit.
--:-- Deirdre Walsh: Moderates oppose the deeper Medicaid cuts.
--:-- Leila Fadel: But as we've seen before, House Republicans tend to get in line behind Trump under pressure.
--:-- A Martinez: OK, but they're rushing to pass this bill. Public opinion polls, though, show it's unpopular.
--:-- Deirdre Walsh: So is this a political risk for all Republicans? It really could be.
--:-- Leila Fadel: You know, so far, the message from Republicans is Congress has to pass this to avoid a tax hike since these tax cuts expire at the end of this year.
--:-- A Martinez: But that's really a complicated message. Most people won't see big changes in their paychecks.
--:-- Deirdre Walsh: But a lot of working class voters who voted for Trump could potentially lose their Medicaid coverage.
--:-- Leila Fadel: The president argues that it's waste, fraud and abuse that's being cut, but a nonpartisan scorekeeper estimated that close to 12 million people could lose their health care coverage.
--:-- A Martinez: Democrats are already making this issue the central issue in the upcoming 2026 midterms.
--:-- Deirdre Walsh: They say Republicans campaigned on lowering costs. But independent analysis of this bill found that the benefits of the tax breaks are much bigger for those at the higher income levels than for working and middle class people.
--:-- Leila Fadel: That's NPR's Deirdre Walsh. Thanks a lot.
--:-- A Martinez: Thanks, Deirdre.
--:-- Leila Fadel: As we just heard there, some of the most controversial provisions of the bill would make large cuts to Medicaid.
--:-- A Martinez: That's the shared federal state health program that currently provides insurance coverage to more than 70 million Americans with low incomes.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Republicans have long wanted to roll back expansions to Medicaid made by Democrats, especially those made by the Affordable Care Act.
--:-- Leila Fadel: With us to talk about what the budget bill might mean for those on the program is Julie Rovner. She's the chief Washington correspondent for KFF Health News.
--:-- Julie Rovner: Good morning, Leila.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So just, I mean, how big are the cuts to Medicaid? What are we talking about here?
--:-- Julie Rovner: Well, according to the Congressional Budget Office, which is the bill's official scorekeeper, the Senate bill that passed Tuesday would reduce federal Medicaid spending by an estimated $930 billion over the next decade.
--:-- A Martinez: That's about 10 percent of the program's total budget.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And that cut is $100 billion bigger than the cut the House voted for back in May.
--:-- Julie Rovner: Okay, President Trump and House and Senate Republicans say this bill would not actually take Medicaid away from anyone who's currently eligible. It only deals with waste, fraud, and abuse.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Is that the case?
--:-- Julie Rovner: Well, again, this is according to the CBO. The Senate bill would increase the number of Americans without health insurance, including many who'll technically still be eligible for the program.
--:-- A Martinez: Right now, there are about 26 million Americans with no health insurance.
--:-- Leila Fadel: That would go up by a third because of this bill, so an additional 12 million uninsured in 2034.
--:-- Julie Rovner: And that doesn't even count several million more people who could lose coverage as a result of changes to other insurance programs like the private plan sold on the Affordable Care Act marketplaces
--:-- Leila Fadel: Why would so many people lose coverage?
--:-- Julie Rovner: Well, the primary way people will be separated from their insurance is increased paperwork.
--:-- A Martinez: For example, right now, people need to prove their eligibility for Medicaid just once a year.
--:-- Leila Fadel: This bill would double that to every six months.
--:-- Julie Rovner: And it isn't just filling out a form. People need to upload lots of documentation to prove that what they're claiming about their income or health status is correct.
--:-- A Martinez: That's hard enough as it is, but it can be particularly difficult for people who are sick, either physically or mentally.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And obviously, that's why many people are eligible for Medicaid in the first place.
--:-- Julie Rovner: What about the work requirements we've heard about? Is that also expected to reduce the Medicaid rolls?
--:-- Julie Rovner: The CBO estimates that about half the people who'd lose their Medicaid coverage would lose it because of the work requirements.
--:-- A Martinez: And it's not that the requirements themselves are particularly onerous. Most adults on Medicaid who don't have young kids would only be required to work or volunteer or go to school 80 hours per month.
--:-- Leila Fadel: But again, it's the paperwork, not the work.
--:-- Julie Rovner: States that have tried work requirements have found that proving you've done these things can be quite difficult.
--:-- A Martinez: And many, many eligible people end up having their coverage ended either temporarily or permanently because they can't navigate the reporting requirements.
--:-- Leila Fadel: requirement.
--:-- Julie Rovner: They'd have to report their activities once a month in many cases.
--:-- A Martinez: I've heard it described as like having to file your income taxes every single month.
--:-- Leila Fadel: You said the Senate bill would cut more deeply into Medicaid than what the House bill had proposed.
--:-- Julie Rovner: But was there anything that the Senate pulled back on?
--:-- Leila Fadel: Well, not on purpose, but the Senate parliamentarian said the bill couldn't ban Medicaid from covering care for transgender people.
--:-- A Martinez: So that provision of the House bill got dropped.
--:-- Julie Rovner: And while the House voted to ban Medicaid from funding any kind of medical care at Planned Parenthood for 10 years, not just abortion care.
--:-- Leila Fadel: The parliamentarian also made senators reduce that to only a single year ban.
--:-- Julie Rovner: Still, according to Planned Parenthood, that could force the closure of hundreds of clinics where people get cancer screenings and contraception and other types of medical care.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Julie Rovner of KFF Health News. Julie, thank you.
--:-- Julie Rovner: Thank you.
--:-- Leila Fadel: The Trump administration is restructuring the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives.
--:-- A Martinez: Officials say they plan to make changes to gun regulations and slash the agency's budget.
--:-- Leila Fadel: NPR criminal justice reporter Meg Anderson is here to break down some of those changes.
--:-- Meg Anderson: Yeah, well, first, as a reminder, ATF is the country's main regulator of the gun industry.
--:-- Leila Fadel: They investigate illegal gun trafficking.
--:-- A Martinez: They inspect gun dealers to make sure they're following the law.
--:-- Meg Anderson: And we know that two weeks ago, Doge began working with ATF on around 50 regulatory changes.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Many of them aim to loosen gun regulations.
--:-- A Martinez: That's according to people I spoke with who are familiar with the matter.
--:-- Meg Anderson: They spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid retaliation.
--:-- Leila Fadel: The changes include things like making a background check for a firearm purchase valid for 60 days instead of 30.
--:-- A Martinez: Another allows gun dealers to destroy records after 20 years rather than keeping them indefinitely.
--:-- Meg Anderson: And the people I spoke to told me, you know, if you look at many of these changes in isolation, they might not seem huge.
--:-- Leila Fadel: But taken together, a pattern of gun deregulation begins to emerge.
--:-- A Martinez: Yeah, the Department of Justice, they oversee the ATF.
--:-- Meg Anderson: They've also proposed a 25 percent cut to ATF's budget next year.
--:-- Leila Fadel: What would that do to the agency?
--:-- Meg Anderson: One really big thing it would do is cut more than 500 investigators.
--:-- A Martinez: That according to the DOJ proposed budget.
--:-- Meg Anderson: Those are the people that conduct inspections of gun dealers.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Pam Hicks was chief counsel at the agency until February when she was fired.
--:-- A Martinez: She said those inspectors help ensure gun dealers are keeping accurate records, and that is key to solving violent crime.
--:-- Meg Anderson: And the reason why it's critical that they be accurate is so that people who shouldn't have guns don't have guns.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And if you can't trace the gun because of crappy records, then that's a problem for law enforcement.
--:-- A Martinez: The agency declined my request for an interview, but in a statement, ATF said it is trying to reduce, quote, unnecessary regulatory burdens so it can focus its enforcement on violent criminals.
--:-- Meg Anderson: How do police feel about these cuts?
--:-- Leila Fadel: Yeah, well, ATF is the only agency in the country with the ability to trace guns involved in crimes.
--:-- A Martinez: And so police use that information from ATF all the time.
--:-- Meg Anderson: The agency keeps a database of the markings left on a bullet or a casing after it's been fired in a crime.
--:-- Leila Fadel: It's basically like a gun's fingerprint.
--:-- A Martinez: I spoke with Brandon Del Pozo about this.
--:-- Meg Anderson: He used to be the police chief in Burlington, Vermont.
--:-- Leila Fadel: The ability to show that a gun was involved in more than one crime, that a gun that appeared at this crime scene, then appeared on that rooftop, helps police conduct very effective investigations.
--:-- A Martinez: We need that to be well funded.
--:-- Meg Anderson: Del Pozo said the administration's cuts to this agency are directly at odds with its claim that it's tough on crime.
--:-- Leila Fadel: So what happens now?
--:-- Meg Anderson: So the administration has said it's not done with its plans to transform the agency, and Congress is getting involved too.
--:-- A Martinez: The big tax and spending bill the Senate passed yesterday includes a provision that removes attacks on gun silencers.
--:-- Meg Anderson: It's a move that gun control advocates strongly oppose.
--:-- Leila Fadel: That's NPR's Meg Anderson. Meg, thank you.
--:-- Meg Anderson: You're welcome.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And a final story for you today.
--:-- A Martinez: President Trump says Israel has agreed to a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza.
--:-- Leila Fadel: He urged Hamas to accept it, saying, quote, it will only get worse.
--:-- A Martinez: The announcement comes ahead of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's visit to the White House next week.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And this doesn't mean a ceasefire will begin next week.
--:-- A Martinez: It's just about setting the ground rules for entering ceasefire talks.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And this comes nearly two years into Israel's war in Gaza.
--:-- A Martinez: The deal is similar to one proposed by the U.S. months ago.
--:-- Leila Fadel: It's a 60-day ceasefire in exchange for Hamas releasing 10 living hostages.
--:-- A Martinez: That's half the number of living hostages Israel says are being held in Gaza today.
--:-- Leila Fadel: The sticking point has been Hamas' insistence on guarantees that ending the war in Gaza must be a condition of the deal.
--:-- A Martinez: And Israel has only agreed to a temporary ceasefire.
--:-- Leila Fadel: And that's Up First for Wednesday, July 2nd.
--:-- A Martinez: I'm Leila Fadel. And I'm Martinez.
--:-- Leila Fadel: How about giving Consider This from NPR a try?
--:-- A Martinez: We hear it up first.
--:-- Leila Fadel: I'd like to give you the three big stories of the day.
--:-- A Martinez: The team at Consider This does it a little bit differently.
--:-- Leila Fadel: They dive into a single news story and what it means to you.
--:-- A Martinez: Learn about a big story of the day in less than 15 minutes.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Listen now on the NPR app or wherever you get podcasts.
--:-- [Up First theme music fades in]
--:-- Leila Fadel: Today's episode of Up First was edited by Kelsey Snell, Carrie Fiebel, Gigi Douban, Janaya Williams, and Alice Woelfle.
--:-- A Martinez: It was produced by Ziad Buchh, Nia Dumas, and Christopher Thomas.
--:-- Leila Fadel: We get engineering support from Zo van Ginhoven.
--:-- A Martinez: And our technical director is Zac Coleman.
--:-- Leila Fadel: Join us again tomorrow.
--:-- [Up First theme music continues to play as the episode ends]
