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--:-- Host (Leila Faldin): Good morning. We have two hosts in the same studio today. It's very exciting. We're behind in our work, though, because Leila and I were. We were trying to solve the world's problems. Thank you. That's a really nice, high-minded way to say gossiping. We gossiped. We failed.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): President Trump claimed on social media that he made progress on a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. He'd been talking with Russia's Vladimir Putin, whose own statement suggested he's in no rush. What's the state of play?
--:-- Host (Leila Faldin): I'm Leila Faldin with Stephen Skeep and this is Up First from NPR News.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): Three of Israel's allies have warned Israel to end its offensive in Gaza. They're objecting to an operation that intensified in recent days and an Israeli order for Palestinians to evacuate. How are Israelis responding to the pressure?
--:-- Host (Leila Faldin): Also, we've had an active tornado season, which is now a normal tornado season. It used to be kind of unusual to see dozens of them in a day, and now we get that year after year. What evidence, if any, shows a link to climate change?
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--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): President Trump spoke with Russia's leader Vladimir Putin for more than two hours on Monday about ending the war in Ukraine. And then Trump gave an account of the call.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): I said, when are we going to end this, Vladimir? I've known for a long time now. I said, when are we going to end this bloodshed, this bloodbath? It's a bloodbath.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): Trump claimed some success towards peace, but Putin again resisted Trump's calls for an immediate ceasefire. Putin proposed more talks, which would take place even as the war continues.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): NPR's Charles Maines has been covering all this from Moscow.
--:-- Charles Maines: Hey there, Charles. Morning, Steve. What did this call accomplish?
--:-- Charles Maines: You know, both sides were really complimentary about the tone of the conversation itself, which Trump called excellent and Putin said was constructive and useful. But the two leaders seemed at odds about what had actually been achieved.
--:-- Charles Maines: Trump took to social media to say Russia had agreed to immediately start ceasefire talks and, more importantly, in Trump's words, seek an end to the war. But in a brief statement to journalists, Putin suggested he was in no hurry.
--:-- Charles Maines: So here Putin says he agreed with Trump to work with Ukraine on a memorandum about a possible future peace deal but made clear all sorts of details needed to be worked out before they could possibly lead to a ceasefire of some defined length
--:-- Charles Maines: And moreover Putin again emphasized that any peace deal would still have to address what he called the root causes of the conflict. You know, that's always been Kremlin speak for Russia's fundamental desire to control Ukraine, and Ukraine knows it.
--:-- Charles Maines: So not really changing any of the demands that Putin has had since 2022.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): How did Ukraine respond?
--:-- Charles Maines: Well, I think it's first important to point out that Trump held talks with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky before the Putin conversation and after. So Trump is certainly giving Zelensky time and attention.
--:-- Charles Maines: But Zelensky has to be sensitive to offending Trump's desire to show progress here, or at least not appear to be seen as an obstacle to peace. All the more so because Trump is also suggesting new business opportunities for both Russia and Ukraine once the fighting ends.
--:-- Charles Maines: So speaking after the call, Zelensky repeated Ukraine's support for a full and immediate ceasefire, even as he really made clear he does not trust Putin's motives in these negotiations or Putin's blurring of the language of peace.
--:-- Charles Maines: Let's listen. But of course, Russia is Russia. They want something, but they even don't know what they want. And when they say they want something, they want everything.
--:-- Charles Maines: OK, so hard to see what the progress is, but we do have France, Germany and the UK, other players here threatening more sanctions against Russia if Putin doesn't agree to an immediate ceasefire.
--:-- Charles Maines: How do they see all this?
--:-- Charles Maines: You know, Putin's refusal to sign to this ceasefire deal puts Europe in an odd position. You know, do you let Trump's peace efforts play out or risk undermining them with pressure on Moscow now?
--:-- Charles Maines: That said, even if Europe does choose to impose additional sanctions, Russian analysts say the Kremlin fundamentally doesn't see it as a threat.
--:-- Charles Maines: Here's Ivan Timofeev with the Russian International Affairs Council in Moscow.
--:-- Ivan Timofeev: Sanctions are inflicting harm, but this harm is not critical for macroeconomic stability of Russia. And actually, further escalation of sanctions would hardly be critical as well.
--:-- Charles Maines: So the result, says Timofeev, is that Russia remains convinced it can simply afford to continue the conflict. if or when these peace negotiations break down.
--:-- Charles Maines: So Moscow really sees little incentive to compromise here.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): Charles, thanks very much for breaking that down. Really appreciate it.
--:-- Charles Maines: Thank you, Steve.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): NPR's Charles Maines in Moscow.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): Okay, ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas are now at an impasse. That's according to three people briefed on the negotiations who spoke to NPR, and Israel faces unprecedented pressure from three allies.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): The leaders of the UK, France, and Canada are calling on Israel to end the war or face consequences. The death toll in Gaza is soaring. Hundreds have been killed in Israel's newest assault, according to health officials in Gaza.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): NPR's Daniel Estrin is gathering all the information he can in Tel Aviv.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: Hey there, Daniel. Hi, Steve. So what does Israel's offensive look like, as best you can determine?
--:-- Daniel Estrin: While Israeli strikes have expanded across Gaza, Israel has ordered a mass evacuation of civilians in southern Gaza in Khan Yunis. It's affecting around a quarter of Gaza's territory, according to the United Nations.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: A Palestinian journalist there has sent us footage of people fleeing by foot. One young man, Tahir Farah, was carrying a big yellow water can on his shoulders and a pile of mattresses.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: It's no longer livable in this land, he says. No food, no drinking water, no education, no health care, just displacement and humiliation and destruction. And every day we're dying, he says.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: And I want to just tell you a few details of some of those who were killed A paracycling team in Gaza is reporting their teammate 33 Ahmed al was killed And a colleague of ours from Gaza says his longtime neighbor, Hatem Abu Samra, an older gentleman, he survived more than 19 months of war. He was just killed in a strike in his home in central Gaza.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: I should add, there was a spontaneous march yesterday in Gaza where people were protesting the war and chanting anti-Hamas slogans.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: OK, so this, interesting, that last detail. So this is the context in which three longtime allies of Israel, the UK, France, and Canada, are saying Israel should end all of this.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: How is Israel responding to that pressure?
--:-- Daniel Estrin: There is international pressure Israel is responding to. It allowed in a small number of trucks of baby food into Gaza so far. That's after nearly three months of a blockade. Gaza on the brink of famine.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: The UN says that's not enough.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: The leaders of the UK, France, and Canada put out that extraordinary statement you referred to. I want to read you a few lines.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: They say the level of human suffering in Gaza is intolerable. The denial of essential supplies to civilians risks breaching international law.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: They say if Israel does not cease the renewed military offensive and lift restrictions on aid, they're threatening to take action.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: Steve, this is a big shift in rhetoric from these major allies.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: And Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has responded saying their statement rewards Hamas.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: Well, why are ceasefire talks at an impasse?
--:-- Daniel Estrin: Well, the Prime Minister of Qatar, who is hosting the talks, says the talks have gone nowhere because of fundamental differences between Israel and Hamas.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: We've spoken to three people briefed on the talks, including an Egyptian official and a Hamas official. They spoke on condition of anonymity to give details.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: They say we are looking at the same longstanding impasse. Israel wants a temporary ceasefire and the release of some hostages.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: And Hamas wants much more. They want international guarantees that a temporary ceasefire would lead to the permanent end of the war.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: And the people we spoke to said the U.S. refused to promise Hamas those guarantees.
--:-- Daniel Estrin: But we will have to see. Israeli and Hamas negotiators are still in Qatar.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): Daniel, thanks so much. You're very welcome.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): Kentuckians are recovering from last weekend's tornadoes, and they might be in for more dangerous weather today, according to the National Weather Service.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): Much of southern Kentucky is at high risk of a significant tornado just days after a burst of storms killed more than two dozen people in that state as well as in Missouri and Virginia.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): Earlier this spring, another cluster of deadly tornadoes tore across eight states in the Midwest.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): So is climate change making tornadoes more frequent? It's a question we pose from time to time and NPR's Rebecca Hersher is here to talk through the evidence.
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: Good morning. Good morning.
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: First, has this been a particularly bad spring for tornadoes?
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: Well, yes, it actually has. There have been more tornadoes than average, and that's according to data from the National Weather Service.
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: So usually by this time in May, there have been a little over 600 tornadoes reported in the U.S. But this year, there have been more than 850 tornadoes, so significantly more.
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: Okay, so is this just a bad year, or is there evidence that the frequency is increasing in a real way over time?
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: It's just a bad year. You know, the annual number of storms varies a lot year to year, so it's not surprising to have a really active year or two like this year.
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: I spoke to a tornado expert about this. Her name is Melissa Widhelm, and she helps lead the Midwestern Regional Climate Center at Purdue University.
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: There's not really an increase or a decrease in the overall number of tornadoes that we see.
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: That number's been pretty stable. You know, year after year. That going back to the 1950s
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: But here what is changing She says big outbreaks of tornadoes like the ones in Kentucky and Missouri over the weekend those are getting more common where lots of storms move over a really large area in a short period of time.
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: Oh, this is interesting.
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: And this is a thing that people have said about climate change, that you end up with more extreme weather events.
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: So not more tornadoes total, but more of these clusters of tornadoes.
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: Yeah, exactly. And Woodhelm says those clusters or outbreaks are a new phenomenon.
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: In the past, we didn't see the kind of large outbreak days that we do now.
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: It used to be kind of unusual to see, you know, dozens of them in a day. And now we get that year after year.
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: Now, she points out that warning people about those big clusters is really labor intensive.
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: You know, it requires a lot of weather forecasters and radar data to track the storms as they move across multiple states, which is notable at a time when the Trump administration is cutting weather forecasting budgets.
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: And there are a lot of vacancies in the National Weather Service.
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: You know, during the outbreak over the weekend, the local weather service office in Jackson, Kentucky, had to borrow forecasters from other offices in the region because they didn't have enough staff on their own.
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: And that's according to a statement from the National Weather Service.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): I appreciate that last detail.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): It is the National Weather Service acknowledging this in a statement.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): So let's try to figure out what's going on.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): We understand that climate change can lead to more extreme weather events.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): We have these more extreme weather events, but can we be a little more precise about the mechanics?
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): Do scientists understand why big outbreaks of tornadoes are getting more common?
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: I wish I could say yes, but unfortunately, tornadoes are very complex, and this is just one of many unanswered questions about how they're changing, especially as the climate changes.
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: You know, in general, climate change is causing more severe weather.
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: As you said, one of the ingredients for a tornado is moist, warm air. So obviously, as the atmosphere heats up, it makes sense that tornado conditions could show up more.
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: There have been some studies that suggest that there might be more tornadoes in the fall and winter as the Earth heats up, as opposed to now when most tornadoes happen in the spring and summer.
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: But it's really an area of active research.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): Rebecca, thanks so much.
--:-- Rebecca Hersher: Thanks.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): That's NPR's Rebecca Hersher.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): And that's Up First for this Tuesday, May 20th.
--:-- Host (Leila Faldin): I'm Steve Inskeep.
--:-- Host (Leila Faldin): And I'm Layla Faldin.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): The NPR app lets you keep public radio in your pocket.
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--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): Anyway, today's episode of Up First was...
--:-- Host (Leila Faldin): Headbones.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): Oh, thank you.
--:-- Host (Leila Faldin): Thanks for the reminder. Bluetooth.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): There we go.
--:-- Host (Leila Faldin): Today's Up First was edited by Neela Banerjee.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): Rylan Barton, Carrie Kahn, Ali Schweitzer, and Alice Wolfley.
--:-- Host (Leila Faldin): It was produced by Ziyad Butch, Ben Abrams, and Christopher Thomas.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): We get engineering support from Arthur Laurent, and our technical director is Carly Strange.
--:-- Host (Leila Faldin): Join us again tomorrow.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): I feel like there were a lot of nice extra flourishes on all the names today.
--:-- Host (Leila Faldin): Thank you.
--:-- Host (Stephen Skeep): I try to give people credit where I can.
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