--:-- [Caitlin McCabe speaking]
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--:-- [Caitlin McCabe speaking]
Caitlin McCabe: Congressional leaders head to the White House for a last-ditch effort to avoid a government shutdown. Plus, New York City Mayor Eric Adams drops out, potentially upsetting the race to lead the city. And we unpack the Pentagon's complicated efforts to prepare for a future war with China. Officials are expecting any sort of conflict over Taiwan to just bring major logistical and technological challenges. They expect a very highly contentious jamming situation where drones get jammed and it just renders them ineffective. So they are thinking about all of these challenges as they plan for a potential war.
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Caitlin McCabe: It's Monday, September 29th. I'm Caitlin McCabe for The Wall Street Journal. And here is the AM edition of What's News, the top headlines and business stories moving your world today.
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Caitlin McCabe: With a potential government shutdown less than 48 hours away, President Trump and congressional leaders are heading into last-minute talks at the White House today. Republican leaders Mike Johnson and John Thune will gather with Democrats Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer in an effort to stop a shutdown that will furlough hundreds of thousands of federal workers and restrict a range of government operations.
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Caitlin McCabe: That's Journal-Congressional reporter Siobhan Hughes. She explains that House Republicans passed a bill this month that would fund the government into late November and add millions of dollars for security for lawmakers following recent political violence. But Democrats blocked that measure in the Senate. They have demanded the GOP make concessions with a particular focus on extending Affordable Care Act subsidies that expire this year.
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Caitlin McCabe: In the middle is President Trump, who during his first term was a dealmaker, cut spending deals with the Democrats. And the question now is whether that President Trump will show up or the President Trump, who at this point has said that there is no point really in working with the Democrats. Trump as recently as Friday called Democrats, quote, crazy and said blame for a shutdown would fall on them.
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Caitlin McCabe: If a deal isn't reached, the government will shut down for the first time since Trump's first term at 12.01 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday, October 1st.
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Caitlin McCabe: We now go to Michigan, where four people have been killed and several injured at a church about 50 miles north of Detroit. Hundreds of people were attending a Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints service Sunday morning when a man drove into the front doors, got out, and began firing. He was then shot and killed by local authorities.
--:-- [Caitlin McCabe speaking]
Caitlin McCabe: William Rennie is the police chief for Grand Blank Township. He told reporters that the gunman used gasoline to set fire to the church, making the ongoing recovery process difficult.
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Caitlin McCabe: The suspect is a 40 male from the city of Burton who we identified as Thomas Jacob Sanford. There is a couple additional bodies that we discovered in the church. There has already been the suspect who is deceased as well. So we have five deceased persons from this tragic incident. So we're working tirelessly to find additional bodies.
--:-- [Caitlin McCabe speaking]
Caitlin McCabe: According to a Marine Corps spokesman, Sanford was a military veteran with the rank of sergeant, having previously served in Iraq. President Trump said in a post on social media that the incident, quote, appears to be yet another targeted attack on Christians, unquote, and called for an end to violence in the U.S.
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Caitlin McCabe: Meanwhile, the race for New York City mayor is shifting. Mayor Eric Adams has ended his reelection campaign, saying media attention, a dismissed federal corruption case, and withheld public funds has made running difficult.
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Caitlin McCabe: The decision narrows the field in a hotly contested race, with business leaders in New York desperate to stop the race's frontrunner, Democratic Socialist Zoran Mamdani. Recent polling shows Mamdani holds a commanding 20-point lead over former Governor Andrew Cuomo, but some polls show a closer race if it were a one-to-one match between the two Democrats.
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Caitlin McCabe: And political and business leaders in Portland are asking Trump to not send federal troops to the city, saying recent protests are manageable. Trump has directed 200 members of the Oregon National Guard to Portland in order to protect ICE facilities, saying the city was war-ravaged. But the state is suing to block the deployment, calling the president's statements outdated and inaccurate.
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Caitlin McCabe: Here's the Democratic governor of Oregon, Tina Kotek. In my conversations directly with President Trump and Secretary Noem, I have been abundantly clear with them that Portland and the state of Oregon believe in the rule of law and we can manage our own local public safety needs. There is no insurrection. There is no threat to national security. And there is no need for military troops in our major city.
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Caitlin McCabe: And I also said to him, we have to be careful not to respond to outdated media coverage or misinformation that's out there. We know what's happening in our own city and we are doing just fine.
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Caitlin McCabe: Over the weekend, scores of residents sought to counter the president's claims by posting picturesque photos of life in the city under the hashtag WarRavagedPortland.
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Caitlin McCabe: And while the president's deportation efforts are playing out in real time with ICE stepping up arrests, a senior official from the Department of Homeland Security has called it, quote, just the beginning.
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Caitlin McCabe: The journal has analyzed the numbers provided by ICE in response to a Freedom of Information Act request. Anthony DeBarros, our data news editor, has more.
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Caitlin McCabe: The Trump administration says it has deported more than 400,000 people since January. It also says another 1.6 million people have self-deported. Still, the federal government hasn't released detailed data to back up those numbers. But a group of academics and attorneys through a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit compelled ICE this year to release data that does tell part of the story.
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Caitlin McCabe: We analyzed that data and found roughly 158,000 people deported by ICE in the first seven months of the year. But that total only covers ICE. It doesn't include deportations carried out by other agencies mainly Customs and Border Protection.
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Caitlin McCabe: The journal analysis of the data has given insights into the demographics of those who have been deported. The ICE data does give us clues as to who the federal government has been deporting and where they've been going.
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Caitlin McCabe: The vast majority are male, and about two-thirds are ages 20 to 39. This demographic represents a prime source of labor for many industries. The leading destination has been Mexico, accounting for about 43 percent of deportations. Latin American countries have received the most, but the data shows the U.S. has sent deportees to more than 190 nations, including Russia and North Korea.
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Caitlin McCabe: And if you want to learn more about this investigation and the administration's deportation efforts, check out the link to Anthony's article in our show notes.
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Caitlin McCabe: Coming up, we unpack Chinese leader Xi Jinping's push to isolate Taiwan, all while the Pentagon races to prepare for a conflict over the very same island. Those stories, after the break.
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Caitlin McCabe: Now, we are exclusively reporting that Chinese leader Xi Jinping is planning to press President Trump to formally state that the U.S. opposes Taiwan's independence. According to people familiar with the matter, Beijing is chasing what would be a major concession in exchange for Trump's goal of an economic accord with China in the coming year.
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Caitlin McCabe: The Chinese leader's push doesn't appear to be slowing U.S. military planning, however. We understand that the Pentagon has launched a new secretive warfare group that it hopes will accelerate delayed plans to field thousands of cutting-edge drones to the Pacific in preparation for a potential conflict with China.
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Caitlin McCabe: Shelby Holliday covers geopolitical issues for the journal and joins us now.
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Caitlin McCabe: Shelby, this project was originally launched two years ago under the name Replicator. Tell us a bit about that and why it's now being revamped.
--:-- [Shelby Holliday speaking]
Shelby Holliday: So China and Taiwan loom large behind all of this. The reason Replicator was launched is because the U.S. believes China may want to try to seize Taiwan as early as 2027. So Replicator was announced as a way to field thousands of autonomous systems to prevent China from trying to take Taiwan.
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Caitlin McCabe: And the idea was that if you have thousands of drones out in the Pacific, they could confuse enemy defenses, they could potentially jam weapons on the ground, they could hit targets, and you wouldn't have to put these exquisite assets like aircraft carriers out in the water and risk them getting blown up.
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Shelby Holliday: From the beginning, the stated goal was to have multiple thousands of autonomous systems fielded by August of 2025. Our reporting indicates that that just hasn't happened. There have been a lot of autonomous systems that have been purchased and scaled, but it hasn't reached the goal that everyone had hoped. And so it is behind schedule.
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Caitlin McCabe: And there are some challenges with getting these autonomous systems to work autonomously. Do we know why there have been so many issues? What's causing the problems here?
--:-- [Shelby Holliday speaking]
Shelby Holliday: Yeah, so people who have worked on Replicator say overall that the effort has been largely successful, but they point to different reasons for some of the delays. For example, when Replicator started, some in the military services were pushing for technologies for platforms that were already in the pipeline. So some of those old systems, older technology, not working as well in the field, really hard to make autonomous, really hard to get them working with other systems.
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Caitlin McCabe: And of course, a big key to making the replicator vision work if you put it out in the Pacific is having drones work together autonomously even if there's jamming, even if it's an environment that's really challenging, so that they can work together and attack targets.
--:-- [Shelby Holliday speaking]
Shelby Holliday: And that autonomy piece of all of this has also been a huge challenge. And so what makes officials so sure that the Defense Autonomous Warfare Group, or DOG, will be different?
--:-- [Caitlin McCabe speaking]
Caitlin McCabe: Our understanding is that DOG is singularly focused on the Pacific, and the goal will be to sort of whittle out some of those technologies that aren't working, that are a little bit older, that maybe may not solve some of the military's problems, and then zero in on and scale those weapons that are.
--:-- [Shelby Holliday speaking]
Shelby Holliday: And so DOG has this singular mandate, super focused. It's being stood up under Special Operations Command, which has unique acquisition authorities. So they may be able to buy new equipment and gear quickly. And the hope in the Pentagon is that DOG will be able to sort of run a tight ship, get everything deployed to the Pacific and have the U.S. ready for a war if that comes in 2027.
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Caitlin McCabe: So, Shelby, obviously you have a lot of really good detail here about DOG and what it's going to focus on and what Replicator was focusing on. But these are pretty significant geopolitical issues. I'm sure probably a lot of this is classified. Is there a lot more happening behind the scenes that we don't know about?
--:-- [Shelby Holliday speaking]
Shelby Holliday: Yes, 100 percent. Replicator from the beginning has always been very secretive. And that's something that has frustrated a lot of the U.S. drone makers and people on the industry side. But Pentagon officials say this has to be kept secret. We can't just telegraph to China what we have and how we plan to use it and what our secret sauce is.
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Caitlin McCabe: So while there are systems that we know about because they're not working and people are talking about how frustrating they are, there are also systems in Replicator that are secretive and their association with the program is classified. And those are the systems that could potentially have a lot of success going up against China.
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Caitlin McCabe: That's Wall Street Journal correspondent Shelby Holiday. Shelby, thanks so much for joining us.
--:-- [Shelby Holliday speaking]
Shelby Holliday: Thank you so much.
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Caitlin McCabe: Meanwhile, we're also keeping tabs on a rare and highly unusual gathering of some 800 top U.S. military commanders set for tomorrow in Virginia, which President Trump is expected to attend. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth convened the meeting to give a speech on his views of the, quote, warrior ethos amid his mounting impatience that the Pentagon hasn't readily adopted the White House's directives on military culture.
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Caitlin McCabe: Stay tuned for more information on that meeting and more at wsj.com.
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Caitlin McCabe: And that's it for What's News for this Monday morning. Today's show is produced by Hattie Moyer and Rema McKenna. Our supervising producer is Sandra Kilhoff. And I'm Caitlin McCabe for The Wall Street Journal. We'll be back tonight with a new show. Until then, thanks for listening.
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Caitlin McCabe: With a combination of factors that are making expected bond returns more competitive with equities, Sarah Devereaux, Global Head of Fixed Income from Vanguard, explains what investors should consider in their approach to fixed income.
--:-- [Sarah Devereaux speaking]
Sarah Devereaux: Bonds are back is really just a call to action for investors to revisit their allocation to fixed income because we do believe we are in a new era for fixed income where bonds are going to offer more value.
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Caitlin McCabe: Get more insights from Vanguard on how you can navigate an uncertain market at Vanguard.com.
